Since the draft concluded last week, the two of us have been working to add the newly-minted pro players to their team lists (you can find them here), move this year’s graduates to their own tab on The Board (which you can find here), and make a sweeping update to our Top 100 Prospects List. Below you’ll find the updated list, followed by notes on who moved and why via a rundown of the clusters of players that formed around similar profiles throughout the rankings. As a reminder, we rank however many players we have graded as 50 FV or better in our Top “100,” and as of this update, that’s 111 guys. Players whose grade have changed have a “↑” or “↑↑” in the trend column of the table, with the latter designation noting cases where the re-evaluation is quite dramatic; players dealing with full-season injuries are indicated with a bandaid.
If you want more information about these players, please head over to The Board, where you can find full scouting reports, tool grades, pitch repertoires and more. We proactively added a few players to the Graduates tab who are quite close to reaching the at-bat or innings pitched graduation threshold, or who have obviously spent enough days on the active big league roster to have exhausted prospect eligibility. Lastly, you can see the real-time farm system rankings here, with the rankings from before the graduates were pulled off and the draftees were added here. Read the rest of this entry »
Welcome to “Wait, What?!,” a series in which I’ll take a look at some of the players whose performance has most surprised me this season. These will all be guys I covered as part of this season’s list cycle. It’s important to reflect on previous work, and in cases where the numbers don’t match the scouting report, there’s often a lesson to be learned, or at least something to keep in mind going forward.
While it can be useful to let a report marinate for a couple years before looking back, sometimes a player’s production prompts a quicker postmortem. Such is the case with Blue Jays catcher Brandon Valenzuela, who has accumulated 1.6 WAR in his first 59 career games mere months after I projected him as a glove-first backup on Toronto’s farm system overview. Let’s take a deeper look at how we got from A to B, evaluate whether I should have seen this kind of production coming, and reflect on whether Valenzuela’s breakout warrants a re-evaluation. Perhaps we’ll even learn something, something to think about when it comes time to evaluate the next upper-level catcher who looks like a defense-first reserve. We’ll begin with a look at Valenzuela’s tool grades and scouting report from January, which I’ve reproduced below:
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Mexico (SDP)
Age
25.3
Height
6′ 0″
Weight
225
Bat / Thr
S / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
30/40
45/45
30/40
30/30
50/55
60
A glove-first catcher, San Diego traded Valenzuela to Toronto last summer in a deadline deal for Will Wagner. The 25-year-old has kicked around the mid-to-upper levels for a couple years now and heads into the 2026 season as the club’s third catcher. Read the rest of this entry »
Brendan Gawlowski: In about 30 minutes, I also have a new series starting where I take a look at the guys whose performance has most deviated from where I had them projected this offseason
2:02
Brendan Gawlowski: I’m pretty excited about this. First up is Brandon Valenzuela, I’ll link out to it when it goes live
2:02
Brendan Gawlowski: I’ve also got a Braves trade deadline/prospect list re-order in the hopper, that should run tomorrow or Thursday
Welcome to Because You Asked, a series in which I’ll dive deeper on some of the players who readers inquire about in my weekly chats. These tend to be guys who were absent or only briefly mentioned on our last list cycle, or players with production that’s out of step with their reputation or scouting reports. Also, Jonah Tong. Hopefully this exercise allows me to just tap a sign every week instead of writing the same sentence or two; we’ll see how it goes. First up: Manuel Pena.
Pena is a 22-year-old utility prospect in the Diamondbacks system. We’ve written about him before — Eric and I ranked him 15th in Arizona’s system in 2022 as a projectable power hitter — but he quickly fell out of the main section of lists and was absent entirely during our last three cycles. This year, Pena has started games at first, third, and second base, as well as in left field, and while he has a little shortstop experience on his CV, he’s primarily a four-corner guy at this point. Nobody’s asking about the glove, though. Pena has drawn attention for one reason: Out of nowhere, he’s among the minor league leaders in home runs with 29. This comes after he’d hit 31 in the previous five seasons combined, so fans and readers understandably want an update here. Read the rest of this entry »
Brendan Gawlowski: Hello everybody from steamy Philly
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Brendan Gawlowski: I just got back to my hotel from the coffee shop, please give me a couple minutes to get settled, my apologies
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Brendan Gawlowski: Okay, thanks for your patience
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liljebbie10: Do you think Seth Hernandez will end the year in AA? If so, it seems that end of next year is in play if he stays healthy? Is he the top pitching prospect in baseball at the moment?
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Brendan Gawlowski: 50/50, don’t think it impacts his big league arrival time one way or the other
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rainingmozzarella: Hello! Sad Dbacks fan here. Am I wrong to be underwhelmed by the team’s draft? It seems they targeted a lot of safety and low upside players after the first two picks. I was especially unimpressed by their third and fourth rounders.
I had the pleasure of attending the 2026 Futures Game yesterday in Philadelphia. Good weather, a big crowd, and great rosters — this game was especially loaded with pitching, which isn’t always the case — made for a fun event.
The nature of the game makes it an imperfect place to evaluate talent. It’s a showcase environment where big tools stand out more than refined skills, and, particularly in a seven-inning game, there’s precious little time for players to show off their range of abilities. Below you’ll find thoughts and reflections on the day, which also included batting practice and pregame defensive work. Inevitably, given the volume of players, some of these write-ups are fairly short, more of a weather report than anything else. In other cases, players moved the needle for me, or at least inspired things for us to monitor over the rest of the season. If you want the full monty on these guys, all of them have full scouting reports on our team-specific lists. We’ve also opted to tuck this recap into our draft coverage navigation widget. If you missed our recap of Day 1, or any of our other coverage, be sure to check it out. Read the rest of this entry »
Below is a team-by-team analysis of last night’s draft activity. Remember that you can find more detailed scouting reports and tool grades for the players drafted yesterday over on The Board. The positions below are what we have them projected as on The Board, not necessarily what the player was announced as. For pitchers, we have a role designated below: starter (SP), or single-inning or multi-inning reliever (SIRP and MIRP).
Arizona was in a tough spot, caught in the middle of the round just after the more skillful hitters (who are usually their type) were picked. They were left with a choice between a few hitters with balanced skill sets but bottom-dwelling defensive fits (like Logan Hughes) or good up-the-middle defenders with hit tool risk. They ended up taking a player from the latter category in Helfrick, who can frame, throw, and has power that he might not tap into consistently due to strikeouts. He could be a Mike Zunino reboot of sorts, which would be a good outcome at the 15th pick. Bryant has a nasty fastball/curveball combo and a projectable frame. We had him ranked 20 spots lower than he was picked, but we don’t really consider him to be a reach; the players in that range are comparable. Kerce has a good shot to be a speedy utility guy, Dowd needs to get stronger, and McDevitt is a test for a player dev group that hasn’t done well with pitchers. His fastball plays, but can they find a secondary pitch? — ELRead the rest of this entry »
I love the draft. Well, from a broader standpoint I find it morally abominable that workers entering an industry have no say in which company they work for or where they’ll be posted. But since we have a draft, and it seems highly unlikely that that’s going to change in the near future, I love covering it.
This is the confluence of amateur baseball (especially college ball, my great love) and the professional game. It’s the dawn of a new age of possibility; for months, we don’t know for sure where Roch Cholowsky or Jackson Flora are going to be playing in the pros. The moment in which we find out is an exciting one. I love seeing the stars of tomorrow before they’ve had their quirks sanded off by the great finishing school that is minor league baseball.
This is a minority position among baseball fans — even diehard fans — and media. In American professional sports, public interest in the draft is proportional to the proximity of draftees to the major leagues. This is as close to a law of natural science as you’ll find in sports, but since the pandemic, Major League Baseball has toyed with finding the limits of that law. Read the rest of this entry »
Here is my final mock draft, which is based on information I’ve continued to gather over the last couple of days. I’ve offered analysis in places where I believed new dope merited it; otherwise, it’s just names. There’s more background for many of these picks in the first mock from a few days ago.
1. Chicago White Sox Pick: Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA
Yesterday, teams picking behind Chicago began to believe the White Sox had narrowed their options down to only Cholowsky and Grady Emerson. If the White Sox view Cholowsky and Emerson as equals and the “tie breaker” becomes about bonus money, such that the player being willing to take the lower bonus will help facilitate a bigger, more robust overall draft class for the White Sox, then the pick should be Cholowsky.
If Emerson doesn’t go here, my information indicates he’s going second to Tampa. If Cholowsky doesn’t go here, it’s believed that the Rays prefer Lackey to Roch, with Roch going third to Minnesota. Multiple people have insinuated to me that the Cholowsky camp would rather that not happen. I don’t think the Twins are going to blink, no matter how much money the Giants are willing to offer Cholowsky. They’ll just take him and dare him to go back to UCLA if he truly doesn’t want to sign with them, which is how I would approach the pick. And so maybe there is some symbiosis here, where Roch can land in a spot he prefers and take more than he’d get at pick three (slot there is $9.74 million), but at enough of a discount below the slot at no. 1 ($11.3 million) that it’s worth it to the White Sox. Chicago acquiring an extra pick from the Pirates last night (34th overall) suddenly makes that kind of savings more relevant to the rest of the White Sox draft class than it was 24 hours ago.
Then again, I’m sitting here thinking about Billy Carlson. The idiosyncrasies and vulnerability of Cholowsky’s swing are similar to Carlson’s. How are the White Sox feeling about Carlson so far? Are they emboldened by the changes they made to Jacob Gonzalez’s swing, and confident they can do something similar with Roch if they need to? They just traded Gonzalez. This is conjecture and speculation, whereas the incentives I outlined in the paragraph above are more concrete. Also worth noting here: Emerson and Cholowsky are both represented by Wasserman. That end of the phone line is operating with perfect information; the two players can’t really be played against one another. This scenario where Roch goes first (for $9.74 to $10 million) and Emerson second is the best Wasserman can do for their both clients.
2. Tampa Bay Rays Pick: Grady Emerson, SS, Fort Worth Christian (TX)
If Emerson goes first, I’d expect Lackey to go here.
3. Minnesota Twins Pick: Vahn Lackey, C, Georgia Tech
It sounds like the Twins will take whichever of the three top players remains. Lackey is the top player on my board, but with the same 55 FV grade as Emerson (no. 2) and Cholowsky (no. 3). I did have Drew Burress‘ name mentioned here late last night, at a discount (obviously). Burress’ next realistic homes are rumored to be toward the back of the top 10, so if this is true, Minnesota is looking at a cut of about $2 million and then can flex with their picks in the 70s.
4. San Francisco Giants Pick: Jackson Flora, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
No change from my first mock, where you can read my reasoning. I think pick nos. 4 and 5 will be Flora and Eric Booth in some order. Jacob Lombard is falling.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates Pick: Eric Booth Jr., OF, Oak Grove HS (MS)
I think Pittsburgh dealing the 34th pick last night had a little bit to do with them wanting to improve the big league team and a little bit to do with them waving the white flag at the notion that they were going to be able to leverage their bonus pool into a top-tier player. If Booth goes ahead of them, there’s some late buzz about them possibly diverting away from Flora because the Buccos have “too much pitching,” something that you famously can’t have enough of, and that the Pirates know firsthand to be fragile and volatile. I’d be incredulous if they passed on a guy who I consider to be clearly better than the other options, but the rumored names if they go that route are college outfielders Drew Burress or Derek Curiel.
6. Kansas City Royals Pick: Jared Grindlinger, TWP, Huntington Beach HS (CA)
Kansas City might happily take Booth or Flora here if either of them falls, but I think part of why the Royals have seemingly been kicking the tires on a creative line of play here is because they don’t think that’s likely to happen. Grindlinger’s other homes seem to be in the pick 10-13 range, where the bonus slots are around $6 million. If the Royals can get a deal done with Grindlinger for about that much, their second pick (30th overall) could theoretically be for a nearly $5 million player, though the Giants pick right in front of them and could be a landmine if they try to do that. Grindlinger might be the second- or third-best high school hitter in this class, and to take a player with that kind of upside while simultaneously tee’ing up the rest of your class is a move that takes real moxie given how difficult it is to gauge Grindlinger’s ability compared to the others.
7. Baltimore Orioles Pick: Drew Burress, OF, Georgia Tech
This might be Eric Booth Jr.’s floor if he’s somehow still here. Burress fits with Baltimore’s style of taking high-performing college hitters with their earliest picks and is also a rumored target of their’s.
8. Athletics Pick: Ryder Helfrick, C, Arkansas
The loudest feedback following my first mock was that I had Arkansas catcher Ryder Helfrick entirely too low, with the A’s mentioned as the earliest and likeliest landing spot.
9. Atlanta Braves Pick: Chris Hacopian, 2B, Texas A&M
This is a linchpin pick in this draft that will likely set off a chain reaction for the half dozen or so teams picking immediately behind Atlanta. There’s a scenario where the Braves’ pockets are picked and there’s no one guy left who they love, so they cut an under-slot deal (to buff their options at pick 26) from a short list of players based on which of them would otherwise go latest, as that player has the most incentive to cut. This sequence, where Burress is off the board, spawns that scenario. There’s going to be a run on college hitters immediately following this, and it’s possible Atlanta can get a sense of which of them is falling the deepest throughout the day and make him their target. Hacopian’s injury stuff might be a thing that forces him to the rear of this cluster of college hitters, so I have him speculatively put here. It feels more solid to say that high school lefty Gio Rojas and Virginia outfielder AJ Gracia would otherwise go in the late teens at the earliest, but I think it’d buck Atlanta’s historical trends of caring a lot about pretty deliveries and defensive ability for them to do that. By it’s very nature, the strategy of cutting here to do more at 26 is one of risk mitigation, so taking a guy whose only issue is injury risk feels less scary.
10. Colorado Rockies Pick: Derek Curiel, CF, LSU
I had Curiel off the board ahead of Colorado in my first mock, with Zion Rose here.
11. Washington Nationals Pick: Tyler Bell, SS, Kentucky
I have Washington with college bats, with one source indicating to me they aren’t as strong on Hacopian. Bell would be great value here.
12. Los Angeles Angels Pick: Ace Reese, 3B, Mississippi State
I’m not sure how the late changes atop Los Angeles’ power structure are going to impact this pick, but it feels silly to put the Angels with anything other than college players in the first round until they prove they’re willing to take a high schooler.
13. St. Louis Cardinals Pick: Zion Rose, OF, Louisville
I think this could be a college pitcher if the contact-oriented college hitters are gone at this point, like if Zion goes the pick before this rather than Reese.
14. Miami Marlins Pick: Jacob Lombard, SS, Gulliver Prep (FL)
I think enough teams are scared of Lombard’s contact performance for him to slide. Whether this is actually his backstop I don’t know, but the Marlins have taken high schoolers with hit tool risk pretty consistently, and the optics of this pick would be favorable because they’d get a Floridian who some consider to be a top five pick. Lombard terrifies me, but I still have him ranked ninth because of how big the tools are.
16. Texas Rangers Pick: A.J. Gracia, OF, Virginia 17. Houston Astros Pick: Justin Lebron, SS, Alabama
I think Lebron is gone by one of these two picks. I have very little dope on Texas this year and just consider Gracia as the most stable college hitter left at this point.
18. Cincinnati Reds Pick: Liam Peterson, RHP, Florida
No change, though Trevor Condon’s name has been mentioned here too. With Gio Rojas is still sitting here in this scenario, I wonder if he’d be in the mix for the same reasons (he’s from Florida, and the Reds have been fine using premium resources on high school arms).
19. Cleveland Guardians Pick: Cameron Flukey, RHP, Coastal Carolina
Cleveland takes a Bayesian approach, and Flukey was thought of as a top-10 pick entering the year, then dealt with injury. This is a Gavin Williams sequel if it works out for them.
20. Boston Red Sox Pick: Bo Lowrance, 3B, Christ Church Episcopal (SC)
There have been whispers about Boston cutting here with a contact-oriented college guy, and I wonder if that could be NC State center fielder Ty Head based on their tendencies targeting contact-driven players. This is the middle of where Lowrance’s range is assumed to be.
21. San Diego Padres Pick: Gio Rojas, LHP, Stoneman Dougles HS (FL)
The Padres have been very open to the high school pitching demo and get even better value than they normally would here with Rojas, who becomes the Mick Abel/Andrew Painter of this draft, where it feels silly that arguably the best high school pitcher falls this far.
22. Detroit Tigers Pick: Connor Comeau, 3B, Anderson HS (TX)
Detroit likes projectable, left-handed high school hitters. Bo Lowrance is also a fit, but is off the board in this scenario.
23. Chicago Cubs Pick: Logan Hughes, OF, Texas Tech
24. Seattle Mariners Pick: Tegan Kuhns, RHP, Tennessee
Seattle seems to be on pitching here, of any demo. Liberty’s Ben Blair might be an interesting option with whom to cut a deal. He’s athletic and throws strikes, which is the Mariners’ type. They can do prep pitching later if they cut, maybe Kaiden McCarthy. Here I have them with a player whose fastball is really going to play, and whose secondary stuff they’ll need to develop.
25. Milwaukee Brewers Pick: Cade Townsend, RHP, Ole Miss
The Brewers like guys with great breaking balls or hitters with huge power. Either Townsend or Cole Carlon.
26. Atlanta Braves Pick: Carson Bolemon, LHP, Southside Christian (SC)
No change.
27. New York Mets Pick: Cole Carlon, LHP, Arizona State
The Mets value breaking ball quality and velocity despite relief risk, and Carlon is like a turbo-charged version.
28. Houston Astros Pick: Daniel Jackson, C, Georgia
No change
Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll be joined in the chat by other FanGraphs friends throughout the evening. We’re in for the longest first day of the draft ever, and I’ll be here for as long as is possible, which will at least be through the comp rounds.
12:50
Eric A Longenhagen: People are filing into chat, tell your friends to come hang out.
12:52
Eric A Longenhagen: Reminder that all of our scouting reports are here:
