Archive for Prospects

Jackson Flora’s Evolution, Alain Gomez-Gudino’s Incredible Journey, and Other Tales from the 2026 Draft Class

Jackson Flora Photo: Matt Bush/Special to the Clarion Ledger/USA Today Network via Imagn Images

With the MLB Draft just a day away, there is more information left in my notebook from the Combine than I have time to dispense. So, in the spirit of my post-draft grab bag from last season, here are some players who caught my eye (or at least my microphone) in Phoenix, whose names you ought to know come Draft Day.

Foremost among these is Jackson Flora, a right-handed pitcher out of UC Santa Barbara. I think he’s the top pitching prospect in the class. Eric Longenhagen and Brendan Gawlowski put him fourth overall on The Board; he’s the only pitcher in the top nine. And not that we care too much what other people think, but that’s very much the consensus position.

This draft has a clear top tier of Roch Cholowsky, the UCLA shortstop and presumptive top pick dating back 12 months, plus Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey and Texas prep shortstop Grady Emerson. The prospect team has Future Value grades of 55 on all three of those players, then Flora with a 50, then the rest of the class starting at a 45+.

In his media scrum on Day 1 of the Combine, Flora said he was meeting with seven teams — the ones holding picks two through eight. If he doesn’t go in the first five or six picks, it’ll be a big deal.

Why? Well, I know I just wrote a big thing about how there’s no such thing as an ideal baseball body, but you can forget all that: It looks like Flora. The California right-hander is a lean 6-foot-5, 205 pounds, with mid-to-upper-90s heat that plays up due to extension and hits 100 on the gun from time to time. For hitters who get too comfortable sitting on the heater, Flora can break out a variety of pitches across the cutter-slider continuum. He also debuted a potential plus changeup during this past season.

“That pitch changed my life, made it a lot easier to get outs, so it was awesome,” Flora said. But that’s not the only improvement he made this year. “I think I was just more of a polished pitcher. Instead of throwing the ball as hard as I could all the time and just spinning it, I think I learned a lot about pitching backwards, how to execute pitches, how to pitch to my strengths and a hitter’s weaknesses… I worked a lot on the mental side of the game and my routine during the week off the field. I think that helped me a lot.”

This season, Flora went 12-0 in 16 starters, with an ERA of 1.06. Now, the run-scoring environment in college baseball has changed a lot over the past 15 years, so if you’re just dropping in for the draft, you might not have a good handle on exactly how good a 1.06 ERA is.

It’s incredibly good. The second-best ERA among qualified pitchers belonged to Oregon reliever Tanner Bradley. The only full-time starter to get within a run of Flora, Oregon State’s Dax Whitney, who only made 11 starts. Flora also held opponents to a .153 batting average, which was fourth in Division I and first among starting pitchers. Paul Skenes had a 1.69 ERA and .164 opponent batting average in his draft year, albeit against tougher competition, in way more innings, and with a much higher strikeout rate. Flora might not be quite that good, but he was basically unhittable.

It’s not surprising that Flora improved quite a bit over his time in college, because UCSB is a pitching factory. Flora is likely to be the third Gauchos pitcher selected in the top five picks since 2015, after Dillon Tate went fourth overall in 2015 and Tyler Bremner was picked second last year. Cardinals right-hander Michael McGreevy was also a first-round pick out of UCSB, and then there’s the school’s crown jewel, Cy Young winner Shane Bieber.

Gauchos head coach Andrew Checketts has made a career of recruiting smart, athletic pitchers, then coaching them up as they develop physically. None of those five pitchers, including Flora, were drafted out of high school.

“I think it’s just the culture there, just being able to have a lot of trust in the coaches and the team,” Flora said. “There’s so much respect for Coach Checketts and [assistant coach Dylan] Jones, who helped the pitchers so much. So many guys come through here, maybe I should listen to the coaches, maybe they do know what they’re doing.”

Flora was a late bloomer; he said he grew a foot over his four years of high school, and was throwing 89 to 92 mph during his senior year, but got up to 94 by the time he got to campus. Once there, he started putting on weight and gaining strength as he underwent a regimented weight training program for the first time in his life, and the velo kept ticking up.

Having Bremner as an example helped as well. Flora credited his older teammate with making him internalize how good he’d become.

“He’s telling me: ‘Dude, when you’re out there, you need to understand dudes don’t want to face you,’” Flora said. “He was also good at — and we preach this a lot at school — faceless hitters, and just working on controlling the controllables. When the ball leaves your hand, there’s nothing you can really do unless he hits the ball right back to you.”

Armed with that newfound mental strength, plus triple-digit velocity and a new changeup, Flora is set up to make the leap to the pros with ease.

…

Flora is one of the best prospects in this draft, but the best story in the class belongs to Arizona high school catcher Alain Gomez-Gudino.

Jesús Cano profiled Gomez-Gudino for Baseball America back in March, and the tale of how Gomez-Gudino came to be a draft prospect is worth reading in full. In August 2023, Gomez-Gudino, then 15 years old, left Caracas, Venezuela with his mother, sister, and stepfather. After months of planning in secret, they slipped out of town and crossed the border to Colombia, hoping to leave behind Venezuela’s repressive government and economic turmoil. They carried one bag of clothes and food, plus Gomez-Gudino’s catcher’s mitt.

Over the next 17 days, they made their way north through Central America. At one point, Gomez-Gudino had to reach into a river to save his mother, who’d been pulled under by the current, from drowning. Later, they were captured by uniformed strangers of unknown origin in Mexico, and had to plead with them to keep one of their cellphones so they’d be able to stay in contact with family.

Eventually, they arrived in Mexico City, where they waited another three months to get an interview for political asylum in the United States. It’s far from the most perilous part of the tale, but most high school baseball prospects train incessantly. I was curious how Gomez-Gudino had stayed in practice during the four months he and his family were on the road.

“I brought my catcher’s glove all the way here, and I found a ball next to a park in Mexico City,” Gomez-Gudino explained. “I gave my glove to my stepfather, and I’d warm up a bit. I didn’t play that much, just for two weeks before I came here, on a summer team in Mexico.”

Grant of asylum in hand, Gomez-Gudino’s family settled in Scottsdale. He joined the baseball team at Saguaro High School, and his baseball career took off. The webbing of that catcher’s mitt, which had made the trip all the way from Caracas, finally gave out under the force of a fastball from Cam Caminiti, Gomez-Gudino’s high school batterymate. (When they make a movie of Gomez-Gudino’s life story, they’re going to have to break the fourth wall here to reassure viewers that no, this really happened.)

Caminiti went 24th overall to Atlanta in the 2024 draft, and the scouts who’d swarmed over the young left-hander soon took notice of the switch-hitting sophomore backstop. Invites to showcases followed quickly, as did college offers, and two years later, he’s one of the top high school catchers in the class.

All this happened while Gomez-Gudino was still adjusting to life some 3,200 miles and eight countries from home.

“It’s way different [in the U.S.], because you got to go to school,” Gomez-Gudino said. “In Venezuela, it’s just baseball, baseball, baseball.”

Among the many things Gomez-Gudino lacked when he left Venezuela: Any kind of working command of English.

“I had to learn a lot, because when I came here two years ago, I had literally nothing,” he said. “Just, like, ‘Hi, how are you?’ Now, I’m still practicing. It’s not 100%, but I’m trying to get there.”

Going from zero to graduating high school and giving interviews in English in two years is no small task; Gomez-Gudino said there’s no real secret, he just listened as much as he could and asked questions when he didn’t know a word. Music and Adam Sandler movies filled in the rest of the gaps, he said.

Having been through an ordeal I could scarcely contemplate, and despite being on the older side for a high school senior, Gomez-Gudino seems noticeably youthful. He looks like a kid, an impression that was only reinforced by the fact that he smiles all the time. I found myself getting excited, because he’s committed to my alma mater, the University of South Carolina, whose baseball program is in dire need of talent.

Eric had to let me down gently with the truth: He’s probably too good to make it to campus.

Legit switch-hitting catching prospects are rare, and among Gomez-Gudino’s highlights at the Combine was a batting practice round in which he hit an exit velocity of 104 mph from the right side and 106 mph from the left side. Which isn’t in Caden Bogenpohl’s territory, but it’s not bad for an 18-year-old with some physical development left.

And who plays a premium position. As you might have guessed by how far Gomez-Gudino carried his mitt, this kid loves catching.

“I used to pitch a lot when I was a kid, but when I heard pitchers don’t hit, I [switched] to third base,” Gomez-Gudino said. “But when I saw Salvador Perez play, I just liked how he commanded the game, how he called the game, how he talked to his teammates and everything. I just said I want to be like him, to be the captain on the field, call pitches every play, every game, and be in command there.”

Someone is going to take Gomez-Gudino fairly high, and in about five years we’re going to hear this story on Sunday Night Baseball. It’s good enough to bear repeating.

…

Outside the first round, the draft can get unpredictable and mysterious, but one of the guys I’m willing to stick my neck out on is Lucas Nawrocki, a high school two-way player out of Aledo, Texas.

At just 5-foot-11, Nawrocki is a little short for a pitcher — or a power hitter, for that matter, but he put on a terrific batting practice round: 18 pitches, 10 of them put in play at 105 mph or harder, topping out at 109.7.

On the mound, the velocity isn’t especially impressive, but Nawrocki’s secondary stuff is nuts. He’s got a mid-80s kick change that drops in around 1,000 rpm, with a low-80s slider with top-shelf spin numbers: 3,000 rpm at minimum, up to 3,200 pretty easily. This breaking ball he can either throw like a sweeper and get a plate’s worth of horizontal movement, or drop vertically like a curveball. That latter version is just nasty. I don’t know how anyone hits it.

“It works really well. I can manipulate and shape my slider really easily, with that crossfire action,” he said. “I can get more depth on it whenever I want, or I can get more sweeping action whenever I want, so it’s a really neat thing… Last offseason, I was playing with it. I wanted to try to find a curveball, but then I [realized] I can get the same grip and maybe preset my wrist a little bit differently and get a lot more depth, instead of switching up the grip.”

That combination of high-spin/low-spin is incredibly rare. In the majors, only four pitchers have a breaking ball with an average spin rate of 2,900 or higher, and either a changeup or splitter with an average spin rate of 1,300 or lower: Nolan McLean, Matthew Liberatore, Clay Holmes, and Anthony Nunez.

Plus Adrian Morejon, whose average slider spin rate is 2,899 rpm as I write this now, but it was above the cutoff point two weeks ago when I found this bit of trivia and presented it to Nawrocki. I mentioned Morejon because here’s the center field camera angle for Nawrocki at PG National:

And here’s Morejon from the same angle:

A 5-foot-11 left-handed pitcher can get outs if he can kill spin on his changeup while ramping it up on his breaking ball.

Actually, with that foot position and low arm slot, Morejon was not the first name that came to mind: It was Billy Wagner. And because Nawrocki is from Texas, I thought he might’ve been inspired by watching Wagner pitch for the Astros. Obviously I asked him about it, and realized mid-sentence that by the time Nawrocki was born in December 2007, Wagner had already not been an Astro for more than four years.

Time is a cruel mistress.


The Biggest (Literally) Draft Class Yet

Brody Bumila/Drew Burress Photos: Cameron Merritt/Taunton Daily Gazette, Petre Thomas/Imagn Images

In my experience, there isn’t such a thing as a standard ballplayer personality. Sure, there are a few givens: competitiveness, capacity for hard work, and self-confidence. If you don’t have those, you’ll be going pro in something other than sports.

But beyond that? There are brash ballplayers, shy ballplayers, smart ones, dumb ones, nervous and twitchy ones, and guys who are so preternaturally relaxed they look like they’re going to fall asleep mid-sentence.

Coleman Borthwick is a people person. Borthwick is a two-way high school player from Florida (in the panhandle, about halfway between Destin and Panama City, which should be a helpful reference for those of you who partied a lot in college), and he’s a people person. Read the rest of this entry »


Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 7/7/26

2:00
Brendan Gawlowski: Hello everybody

2:00
Brendan Gawlowski: Eric and I are working furiously a T100 update and all manner of draft coverage. He’s running point on most things draft but I’m hammering away at college pitchers and we’ll both be in Philly to cover proceedings.

2:01
Brendan Gawlowski: For now, let’s chat. My goal for today is to spend more time on guys who generally do not get asked about. Y’all can help with this, of course.

2:01
wiguy94: You asked me to check back in this week on Josiah Ragsdale and here I am.

2:01
Brendan Gawlowski: Good start!

2:02
Brendan Gawlowski: Stock way up. Good eye, measurable power is average, which is ahead of where it was in college and a good bit better than how it looked in his debut cameo last season.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Details of Our New Prospect Valuation Methodology

Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

Today at FanGraphs, we’re introducing an updated approach to prospect valuation. You can read the announcement here, and also see the new Farm System Rankings for 2026 on The Board. This post is a detailed methodological examination of how we’ve produced our new estimates. It goes over each step of the process in order, and concludes with a sensitivity analysis. If you’re interested in the broad strokes of our new approach, the introductory post will likely suffice. But if you want to see how the sausage is made, read on.

Prospect Classes
We began with Baseball America’s annual Top 100 prospect lists for each year from 2005-2016, plus FanGraphs’ lists for 2017 and 2018. The BA lists serve as a publicly accessible bridge to the current era of FanGraphs prospect writing, and provide a nice through line with Craig Edwards’ earlier research. We took all instances of a prospect being ranked, including duplicates of the same prospect in multiple years. We converted those ordinal rankings into Future Value grades using a two-step process. First, we separated the rankings into pitchers and hitters and created two separate ordinal lists for each year. Second, we adjusted those ordinal rankings between years by a regressed factor based on that class’ major league production. This allowed us to differentiate between classes – without some type of delineation between years, every top overall hitter would receive the same grade, which is contrary to the way we grade prospects.

This method introduces some potential bias. Judging prospects based on how they turned out inherently brings some information from the future into the mix. We decided that this was the best possible way to systematically introduce varying year-over-year quality to an otherwise ordinal-only set of values, and that it also did a good job of replicating the way that grades might have actually been assigned in the past. The top pitching prospect on the 2010 list was Stephen Strasburg. The top pitching prospect on the 2011 list was Julio Teheran. It’s important to differentiate between the likely grade that they would have received. There’s some volatility in relative value assignment at the very top end of the scale based on this methodology, which is addressed in the sensitivity analysis. Read the rest of this entry »


Introducing an Updated Method for Prospect Valuation

Jesús Made Photo: Dave Kallmann/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel/USA Today Network via Imagn Images

Seven years ago, Craig Edwards published a landmark study on prospect valuation. Craig’s work built on previous studies by Victor Wang, Scott McKinney, Kevin Creagh, Steve DiMiceli, and our own Jeff Zimmerman, as well as a few prior ad hoc attempts here at FanGraphs; subsequent work on the subject was done by the team at Driveline Baseball. These studies have been hugely important both for FanGraphs’ own evaluation of prospects — among other things, Craig’s work has helped to feed the Farm System Rankings over on The Board — and for the broader public study of the minor leagues.

The reasoning behind these studies is clear and simple. If you want to evaluate a prospect-for-big-leaguer trade, you’ll need to know the expected value of the prospect in the trade. If you want to evaluate how much help is waiting in a given team’s farm system, a quantitative assessment of the talent there is necessary. Even if you’re just wondering how likely your team is to find the next big thing, again, you’ll need some type of framework to understand how often that’s happened in the past.

The previous studies of prospect valuation are still excellent, but they’re all very much of their time. Since Craig published his study in November 2018, the league has changed significantly. The COVID-abbreviated 2020 season changed minor league timelines across the board. The league contracted the number of minor league franchises significantly in 2021. A new CBA, signed before the 2022 season, changed compensation structures and competitive balance tax levels, and introduced the Prospect Promotion Incentive. The cost of a win in free agency has skyrocketed; league-wide payrolls are up more than 30%, and free agent salaries are up by more than that. Read the rest of this entry »


Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 6/30/26

2:00
Brendan Gawlowski: Hello everybody

2:00
Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t have any housekeeping, we finished the lists

2:01
Brendan Gawlowski: I’m still on an extended runner’s high about that

2:01
Brendan Gawlowski: So, let’s jump in

2:01
ptkirk: Where would high-school draftee age Josuar Gonzalez go if he was eligible in this years draft

2:02
Brendan Gawlowski: Toward the very top. Maybe someone prefers one of the college guys, maybe they don’t. Could easily go 1:1

Read the rest of this entry »


What Do Real Prospects Think About MLB’s Draft Proposal?

Cameron Merritt/Taunton Daily Gazette-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn

The guys in caps and white pants have been chucking the ball around for a few months now, but Major League Baseball’s most important undertaking — collective bargaining — is just getting started.

The league and the MLBPA have traded preliminary economic proposals over the past month, and some of the items on the table are quite spicy. The league wants a salary cap and a five-year limit on contracts for free agents who change teams. The MLBPA wants extensive reforms to the revenue sharing system and a quicker path to free agency for players in their 30s — and to nearly triple the minimum salary by the end of the CBA.

But the spiciest nugget in the carton might be MLB’s proposal for a 12-round draft that’s limited to players who are 20 years old and at least two years out of high school. Read the rest of this entry »


Tampa Bay Rays Top 62 Prospects

Caden Bodine Photo: Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Tampa Bay Rays. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the sixth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »


Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 6/24/26

12:00
Brendan Gawlowski: Hello everybody

12:01
Brendan Gawlowski: I am chatting from beautiful Bend, OR, where I absconded for a few days after finishing the Marlins list.

12:01
Brendan Gawlowski: Eric is working furiously on the Rays, that will be up later this week and then we’ll be mercifully done with those… for a few months.

12:02
Brendan Gawlowski: I’m staying with a couple family friends, one of whom is Austrian and knows nothing about baseball, but he gave me a piece of advice just before starting here: “Don’t embarrass yourself.” So, with that in mind, let’s go.

12:02
KURTIS SWENSON: Christian Oppor is making me sad, is there any hopes he gets over his intense yips hes having this season?

12:03
Brendan Gawlowski: Sure, but he’s gonna fall off the T100 in our next update.

Read the rest of this entry »


Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 6/19/2026

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy from Tempe, a mild 107 today. Folks are gonna roast here for the Combine next week, bring your long sleeve linens.

12:03
Braydon Roberts: Any initial thoughts on Sebastian Dos Santos? He just got a quick promotion like Rainiel Rodriguez last year.

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Not doing backflips like I was with Rainiel last year. Frame/tools/skills pretty medium on Dos Santos.

12:04
dan norman lear: Not a “prospect” anymore, but any info/sense on Hurston Waldrep?

12:07
Eric A Longenhagen: Still bringing the kitchen sink, problematically bad feel for location, 92-97 t98 this year, lots of early-count cutters because of his heater’s vulnerability. Get why they want him to throw this many pitches and try to start but that aint happening.

12:07
dan norman lear: Throwing a dart: Assuming no injuries, OD STARTING OF for the 2027 Rockies?

Read the rest of this entry »