Rutschman is the total package, a physical monster who also has superlative baseball acumen and leadership qualities. From his sophomore season onward (and arguably starting in the fall before that) Rutschman went wire-to-wire as the top draft prospect in his class, a complete player and the best draft prospect in half a decade. His entire profile is ideal. It’s rare for ambidextrous swingers to have polished swings from both sides of the plate, even moreso to have two nearly identical, rhythmic swings that produce power.

It’s more atypical still for that type of hitter to be a great defender at a premium position. Rutschman has a pickpocket’s sleight of hand and absolutely cons umpires into calling strikes on the edge of the zone. Resolute umpires end up hearing it from biased fans who are easier marks. Aside from two instances, all of my Rustchman pop times over three years of looks are between 1.86 and 1.95 seconds, comfortably plus timed throws often right on the bag. Rutschman has the physical tools to become the best catcher in baseball, provided he stays healthy (he had some shoulder/back stuff in college). He’s also an ultra-competitive, attentive, and vocal team leader who shepherds pitchers with measured, but intense encouragement. It fires up his teammates and feels like it comes from a real place, not something he’s forcing. Aside from the questions that arose as teams scrutinized Rutschman’s medicals with a magnifying class before the draft (described to me as “stuff consistent with catching and playing football”) he’s a perfect prospect subject only to the risk and attrition that all catchers are.

Rodriguez is a Forrest Whitley sequel currently in production. Like Whitley, Rodriguez was once a hefty Texas high schooler with average stuff. A physical transformation coincided with a senior spring breakthrough, which was then bettered by cogent repertoire work in pro ball. Rodriguez’s changeup, which was an afterthought back in high school, has screwball action and has become very good, very quickly. He’s now tracking to have a four-pitch mix full of above-average pitches: a mid-90s fastball, a lateral, mid-80s slider, a two-plane upper-70s curveball, and the low-80s change. His delivery isn’t great (there’s a little bit of head whack, and Rodriguez has a tightly-wound lower half) but he’s never been injured and has thrown an acceptable rate of strikes to this point. Among the highly-drafted 2018 prep arms, only Rodriguez and Simeon Woods-Richardson are trending above their pre-draft grades. Rodriguez has a No. 2/3 starter ceiling.

Ultra-competitive, athletic southpaws with this kind of stuff are very rare. Here’s the list of lefty big league starters who throw harder than Hall, who averaged 94.9 mph on his fastball in 2019: Blake Snell. That’s it.

Because Hall’s release is inconsistent, not only did his walk rate regress in 2019, but the quality of his secondary stuff was also less consistent than it was during his very dominant mid-summer stretch in 2018, when Hall’s changeup clearly took a leap. Both of his secondaries are often plus; Hall simply has a higher misfire rate than most big league starters. He’s still just 21 and has All-Star upside if he starts locating better, which may not come until after he has a couple big league seasons under his belt.

Beware the swing-happy hitter with no position. Mountcastle’s long-awaited slide down the defensive spectrum accelerated last year. He was a woebegone, full-time shortstop until 2018 when he began playing third base, then last year he spent an overwhelming majority of his time at first base, while playing a bit at third and closing the year with a month in left field. The eerie shadow of the LF/DH projection (he’s had issues throwing to first base) has loomed around Mountcastle’s profile for a while now, but he keeps hitting enough for me to like him anyway.

Mountcastle’s timing is sublime, and he has one of the more picturesque righty swings in all of pro baseball, featuring a big, slow leg kick that eventually ignites his deft, explosive hands. He has great plate coverage and hits with power to all fields. Mountcastle swings a lot: He has a 4.5% career walk rate, and it’s rare for DH/LF sorts to walk that little and be star-level performers. DH types with OBPs in the .310-.320 range typically max out in the 2-3 WAR range, which is where I expect Mountcastle to peak. But his contact quality is quite good, and the visual evaluation of the hit tool and on-paper performance have been strong for several years, so the degree of confidence that Mountcastle will hit is relatively high for a prospect with plate discipline issues.

Henderson played shortstop in high school and he can make fundamentally routine plays there, but at his age and size he’s much more likely to transition to third base while he’s still in the minors. He’s actually taller than just about every big league third baseman aside from the Brian Anderson, Hunter Dozier types who play other positions. He’s a lefty stick with precocious power and a relatively projectable frame in spite of somewhat narrow shoulders. He squared up elite high school pitching all throughout his showcase summer, giving the industry confidence in the hit tool. It’s reasonable to hope for his bat to profile in an everyday capacity at third base, especially if the currently historic crop of hot corner talent has started to age by the time he’s ready.

Two more IL stints in 2019 means Diaz has now been shelved with an ailment six times since 2016. He had issues with his shoulder, hip, hand, quad, and hamstring during that time, and developed a tightly-wound lower half. He still hunts hittable pitches and can move the barrel around the zone, but this is an approach/contact-based skillset rather than one with loud, first division tools. The ball/strike diagnosis and barrel control are both enough for Diaz to play everyday, but he doesn’t thump like a star corner outfielder and the injury track record is a reason to round down a bit.

Every now and then, toolsy college prospects turn into George Springer. Their swing and approach are refined with pro instruction, and previously dormant production suddenly shows up in games. It seemed like Hays was quickly becoming this sort of player during his 2017 breakout, a power/speed monster who had one of the best statistical line in the minors that year. But an aggressive, pull-heavy approach and ankle injury derailed Hays’ 2018, which was so putrid that he never got a big league look even though he’d already debuted the previous September.

His 2019 season was much better, though it too was interrupted by injury, this time a hamstring strain. Hays’ swing makes him a 40 runner from home to first, but underway he’s a plus runner capable of handling center field. His leaping ability should also make him a threat to rob the occasional homer. Most importantly, Hays’ ability to play center field (which I’ve not always been optimistic about but have come around on) gives the approach issues some room to breathe on the offensive end. I still don’t consider him a lock to generate everyday value because of the plate discipline, but he’s talented enough to be a high-variance player who has some big years.

McKenna can fly and he has all-fields, doubles power, peppering the right-center gap with inside-out swings. Some of the power production is speed-driven, but McKenna has enough strength to deal with big league velo. His walk rates may come down as pitchers attack him in parts of the zone where they don’t think he can hurt them, but he has a shot to be a league average hitter who also plays a good center field. That’s an everyday player, just probably one without the pop to be a 50 or better on the scale.

In a year, Baumann transformed from what many clubs considered a two-pitch relief prospect to a nearly ready, four-pitch rotation piece. His upper-80s slider is terse and cuttery, the type of pitch that induces weak contact rather than whiffs, and when mixed with a more shapely curveball, keeps hitters sufficiently perplexed. The mealticket offering, though, is Baumann’s fastball, which has huge carry. That pillar pitch complimented by lots of viable other elements should enable Baumann to work as a No. 4/5 starter.

Stowers swings so hard that he looks like he’s going to corkscrew himself into the ground. The Bellingerian cut makes Stowers’ whiffs seem worse than they are, and also make his dingers aesthetically pleasing. Kiley and I liked him as a sandwich/early second round prospect and Stowers ended up falling all the way to the top of round three. That prompted a reevaluation but, ultimately, there’s rare ability to rotate here and a chance for big, in-game power production, enough to profile in right field.

If Kremer is going to continue missing bats at the rate he has thus far, especially with a fastball a few ticks down from his reliever days in the Dodgers system, then his command will need to get where I have it projected. That’s very possible for a guy who threw 60% of his fastballs in the strike zone last year. Kremer’s repertoire is well-composed but relies on location to generate whiffs because his raw stuff isn’t nasty enough to miss when he makes mistakes. He doesn’t make many of them though, and his fastball still played against good Fall League hitters even when he sat 90-92 there. If that isn’t sustainable more than twice through an order, perhaps Kremer will move to some kind of valuable long relief role eventually. For now, he’s much more likely to begin his big league career in Baltimore’s rotation.

He doesn’t throw very hard, but it takes hitters a few looks to get comfortable with Lowther, whose mechanical funk disrupts their timing. The sinking and tailing action on Lowther’s heater makes it tough to square up, and the southpaw leans on his secondary stuff to finish hitters. His curveball has depth and it bites hard, but doesn’t pair very well with the sinker and is best deployed as a means to get ahead of hitters early in the count. The changeup, which Lowther uses against both-handed hitters, has become his out pitch. It’s a Ryan Yarbrough sort of mix, and Lowther’s future role should be similar.

Hall’s speed has put several atmospheres of pressure on low-level minor league defenses. He puts lots of balls in play on the ground and hauls ass to first, to this point running a nearly .400 BABIP as a pro. Hall does have advanced feel for contact for a 20-year-old with an odd developmental path (he left Bermuda as an adolescent to pursue baseball in Canada) and several catalytic qualities that fit in a traditional, perhaps regressive, top-of-the-lineup role. He’s stolen 56 bases in 70 career attempts (80% success) and is fast enough for that skill to keep playing as he climbs the latter, though his offensive production will likely come down. Hall is not lacking big league physicality, but he isn’t very projectable either, and what you see now is probably what you’ll get. His exit velos are close to big league average, and he did lift the ball more in 2019, but power is unlikely to impact the profile. He’s tracking like an Everth Cabrera sort of player.

Akin’s stuff was down a little bit in 2019, as he was 92-95 and bumping 98 in 2018. He’s walked a batter every other inning for basically his entire career, but Akin has a three-pitch mix sufficient for starting and missing bats. He projects as an inefficient No. 4/5 starter who taxes the bullpen, or a four- or five-out reliever.

Grenier is a good defensive shortstop with some raw pop and elevated peripherals. His overt physical tools — the power, straight-line speed, arm, defensive ability — have been well-reviewed since Grenier was in high school and they forced to move Nick Madrigal from shortstop to second base during the last year and a half of Grenier’s time with Oregon State. He was a swing-change candidate for pro ball and his hands do load a little differently now, coming toward his rising front knee before circling back around in a loop toward the ball. This is reminiscent of lots of Donaldsonesque swings implemented in the minors right now. If something clicks, Grenier could be an everyday shortstop. For now, the strikeouts push him toward a lesser, middle infield utility role.

We might have seen Pop in the big leagues last year had he not blown out and needed TJ in mid-May. Now, the Orioles are just months from needing to decide whether to put him on the 40-man roster. Healthy Pop looked much like Brandon League, a turbo sinker/slider, high-leverage sidearm reliever. Baltimore will have a better idea of how Pop’s stuff is progressing during rehab than the rest of the industry does, and other teams may only have a short window to evaluate Pop in games ahead of Rule 5 consideration, should Baltimore not add him and hope the lack of looks keeps teams away. He’s a high profile rehab target for clubs with scouts on the backfields.

He isn’t especially graceful nor does he have great hands or actions, but Bannon plays an adequate, effort-based second and third base. More importantly, he can hit. His low load enables him to lift pitches with regularity, but he’s also short back to the ball and tough to beat with velocity. This becomes especially true with two strikes, when Bannon chokes up and spoils tough pitches. He runs deep counts and walks a bunch, he’s going to hit a ton of doubles and play a shift-aided spot on the infield. That’s a big league role player.

An athletic lefty with a four-pitch mix, Zimmerman is a fully baked, pitchability backend starter with a good slider.

After a post-draft velocity dip, Rom’s heater returned to the upper-80s last year and it missed a lot full-season bats, many more than fastballs like his typically do. It has a well above-average spin rate for its velocity and nearly perfect backspin. An equally important part of Rom’s success to this point — 150 strikeouts, 39 walks in 126 innings — has been his breaking ball command. He can vary shape and locate to his glove side, and Rom has a crude splitter with late dive that has a shot to miss bats. If he can add velo he’s going to really blow up, and he’s only 20. Velo gains are rare though, and Rom has a mesomorphic build, not the sort that has a ton of room for mass. If he settles at this velo he’ll be a backend starter.

This will be Harvey’s eighth year in pro baseball. He’s battled through an awful lot of injuries to become a fastball-heavy reliever.

A GM once told me (I’m paraphrasing) that if a player is well-built and has some baseball acumen, they deserve serious consideration even if their tools are very average. Such is the case with Hernaiz, who has a bunch of average tools right now, but could grow into a carrying, impact trait. He has pro ball pedigree (his father played throughout the ’90s), and the ability to drop the bat head and lift pitches toward the bottom of the zone. He can rotate and create leverage, and might just stay at shortstop. This was a strong $400k signing; Hernaiz is one of the more interesting young players in this system.

Bradish’s stuff is straight out of middle relief central casting. He sits 90-93 as a starter and has an overhand power curveball. The picturesque way Bradish rotates and unfurls belies his lackluster control, though his changeup has improved in pro ball. I think he’s unlikely to start and is instead a high-probability relief piece.

This is the player in the system about whom the scouts and data most disagree. Scouts see an unathletic infielder, arguably positionless, without the power to make up for his defensive issues. But on paper, Urias has a .270/.360/.420 career line in the minors — after two DSL seasons with Texas, Urias’ rights were loaned and then sold outright to Diablos Rojos in Mexico City, where he hit .318/.402/.467 over five seasons before the Cardinals came calling in the spring of 2018 — and he’s hit well for two consecutive years at Double and Triple-A. His TrackMan data is strong (91 mph average exit velo, 47% of balls in play at 95 mph or more), and he plays an up-the-middle position. He’s an interesting sleeper, though we acknowledge there’s no margin for error here. Urias can only really play second base passably as he lacks the arm strength for the left side. He’ll either hit enough to be an everyday second baseman, or he won’t and will be very difficult to roster.

How good does one’s secondary stuff and command need to be to succeed in today’s game with an upper-80s fastball? We may be about to find out. Baltimore’s rebuild should give Wells an opportunity to perform six innings worth of surgery every fifth day.

With geyser-like regularity, LSU churns out high-effort, tweener fourth outfield prospects like Watson, who hit .311/.373/.484 while in college.

Ortiz’s junior year production at New Mexico State was undoubtedly aided by the hitting environment there, but he also has relevant talent. He’s tough to strike out and plays a good shortstop, though he lacks typical big league strength and explosion. Realistically, he looks like a bench infielder.

Handley is an agile catcher with control of the strike zone. His quickness enables the arm to play behind the plate even though Handley’s short on pure zip. Without an impact offensive tool, he likely maxes out as a backup.

Diplan was electric early in his pro career and looked like a top 100 talent back in 2016, when he mowed over the Midwest League. Since then his conditioning has been mixed, and his control increasingly problematic. He’s been shuttled around the DFA wire lately and has now landed with an org that, theoretically, should be good at developing pitching. He once had three potential plus pitches, so we’re still on Diplan to some degree in the hope that he can recapture the stuff of his teenage years in Baltimore’s bullpen.

Carroll seemed like a sure bet to spend most of 2019 in the big leagues, but a slipped disc that was pinching a nerve in his left leg shelved him all summer. He made two, single-inning August rehab appearances in the GCL (a hurricane wreaked havoc on the last couple weeks of games in Florida) and then went to the Fall League, where he threw an inning every three or four days. He sat 94-97 with inconsistent slider quality and control.

Knight was parked at 89-93 as a starter in 2019. He has a better chance of missing bats in relief, where he could theoretically bully hitters with a little more velo and live off his slider a bit more.

Since moving to the bullpen in July of 2018, Mattson has struck out more than a batter per inning in what are almost always multi-inning appearances. After a dominant month at Hi-A to begin 2019, the Angels moved Mattson to Double-A and started varying his workload, first asking him to throw on back-to-back nights at the end of July. He’s being groomed for a relief role, one that will likely be fastball-heavy. His heater has big time life at the top of the zone and Mattson really hides the ball well, so he’s able to slip it past hitters at the letters. His secondary stuff is average on pure stuff but plays well off his fastball. He profiles as a middle reliever.

Sparks has only been healthy enough to play about 70 games in parts of three pro seasons, but he has major league ingredients. His frame, twitch, speed, arm strength and, shockingly, exit velos, are all of big league quality; we just know very little about the hit tool and power actualization because of his lack of reps. This is a two-year evaluation window for Baltimore because Sparks has to go on the 40-man two Decembers from now. Come June, he will have spent three years on the complex, and the track record for players who have done that is very poor. If the Orioles like him, they have to hit the gas on his development at some point, whether that’s a cup of coffee at Low-A late this year or a quick hook to Hi-A in 2021.

Baltimore had originally planned on taking Hanifee, who grew up an Orioles fan, in the third round of the 2016 draft but instead took Austin Hays, who they expected to be off the board by that point. Hanifee was still available the next time Baltimore was on the clock and he signed for $500,000. Our year-to-year notes on Hanifee have his velo down two ticks in 2019 (91-93 t95 in 2018, 89-92 t93 in 2019), and his control regressed, too. His appeal for the past two years had been his present arm strength and a lean, broad-shouldered, 6-foot-5 frame that foreshadowed more. That hasn’t happened, even as Hanifee’s gotten stronger-looking.

His delivery is odd. After his hands break, Hanifee holds the ball out and up above his head like a waiter carrying a tray, then his stride and arm stroke are both very short. It’s deceptive and strange. He’s a bounceback candidate, and a reasonable outcome to hope for is a fastball-heavy reliever.

The Braves originally drafted Cumberland with a pick they bought from Baltimore in exchange for Brian Matusz’s contract, then later shipped him to Baltimore as part of the package for Kevin Gausmann and Darren O’Day. Cumberland was a bat-first catching prospect at Cal and he remains so today. He’s still very rough defensively but has done nothing but catch to this point in his career. Both the receiving and arm strength are issues, so I’ve got Cumberland evaluated as a DH. Robo zone implementation might change that.

Peralta has been simmering in A-ball for a while now, continuing to start (mostly) despite control issues that will certainly push him to the bullpen. The starter reps have been helpful in developing Peralta’s secondaries though, which are now both close to average. One of them still needs to step forward for him to seize a steady relief role.

Daschbach is a R/R 1B/OF power bat with strength-driven thump. He smoked Pac-12 pitching as a sophomore and junior, but has a high offensive bar to clear.

Acquired as part of the college pitching hydra sent to Baltimore in the Dylan Bundy deal, Peek will bump 95 with ride at the top of the zone. His changeup progressed during his draft year but otherwise his stuff was better on the Cape the summer before, and his curveball is fine. He’s a swingman/depth starter type.

Last year we suggested that Zebron might repeat the GCL because he was a raw, two-sport high schooler and indeed that’s what happened. Baltimore was one of only a few teams that were on Zebron, who was pitching on Maryland’s Eastern Shore, before the 2018 draft. A year after becoming an intriguing summer sleeper, his fastball remains in the low-90s, up to 94, paired with a deep, two-plane curveball.

Bautista is way behind the developmental curve — he was originally signed by the Marlins in 2012 and released in 2015 — but he has a huge frame and he sure does throw hard. He’s of the Tayron Guerrero ilk.

If you get déjà vu reading this report it’s because Manning has become the dream. All of the physical components that many front-end arms have while they’re in high school were there when he was an amateur — shooting guard frame, premium arm strength and athleticism, a breaking ball — the stuff that enables your imagination to run wild. And Manning succeeded while devoting time to two sports, which caused him to get a late start during his draft spring because the hoops team was in the middle of a deep playoff run (Manning threw late into the prior summer, so this may have actually been good for limiting innings).

After some initial strike-throwing issues and a change in stride direction, the REM cycle arrived. The walks came down, Manning’s changeup got better, and he started working with two different fastballs and was clearly manipulating the shape of his spike curveball depending on the hitter and situation. He’s never had arm issues (his 2018 IL stint was due to an oblique injury), and he has rare on-mound athleticism coupled with an understanding of how to pitch. He’s going to have three out-pitches thanks to adjustments he’s already made, and it’s fair to assume he’ll be able to make more. Manning is tracking like an All-Star starter and a potential top-of-the-rotation arm.

We would not have guessed that, at this stage, the two-sport prep pitching prospect in this system would have lower perceived variance than the dominant SEC arm who went first in his draft class, but here we are. Mize has hellacious stuff. His four-pitch mix has actually gotten better since college because he and the Tigers successfully added greater demarcation between his cutter and slider, the latter of which now has more two-plane sweep. His entire repertoire is capable of missing bats, like Manning’s, but Mize’s split is superior to Manning’s change and he has an additional weapon, the cutter, that Manning does not.

So why ever-so-slightly prefer Manning? Mize’s injury track record is as scary as his stuff. Some teams had concerns about his shoulder when he was a draft-eligible high schooler, he had elbow issues as a sophomore at Auburn, he had a PRP injection after he pitched for Team USA the summer before his draft year, and in 2019, he missed a month with a shoulder injury. After Mize returned, he had some outings where his fastball was in the 90-92 range, he used his splitter less frequently, and when he did use it, it had more spin than usual. It’s speculation, but perhaps he was tinkering with changeup grips after the injury. That’s an awful lot of smoke. Purely on quality of stuff, Mize is arguably the top pitching prospect in all of baseball. We still love him and think it’s perfectly reasonable to consider him the top youngster in this system and one of the best on the planet, but what Manning has become, what he might continue to develop into based on his athleticism and now-evident ability to make adjustments, combined with his much, much cleaner bill of health, shades him ahead of Mize, in our (mostly Eric’s) opinion, within the same FV tier.

Advanced high school hitters are common on Florida’s diamonds, and while Greene constantly squared up top high school pitching as well as any of his peers, he also underwent a bit of a physical transformation that made at least some scouts more optimistic that he’ll be able to play an instincts-driven center field long term. During his pre-draft summer, Greene was a little soft-bodied, his running gait was odd, and he seemed destined to play little more than an average outfield corner. The player scouts watched the following spring had a better physical composition, was more explosive and a better runner, and had as ripe a high school hit tool as was available in the draft. This was similar to how Jarred Kelenic’s skills were colored as he came out of high school.

Greene’s swing, curated by his father from an early age, is beautiful. He can clear his hips and turn on just about anything on the inner half, drop the bat head and lift balls with power, strike balls the other way with authority, and he tracked and whacked many high school benders. The bend and flexion in Greene’s front knee as his swing clears the point of impact is reminiscent of several Dodger hitters. Though there are many examples of Greene having certain types of athleticism (he is a tremendous leaper, for instance), he’s not a runner and we don’t have him in center field. But we think he’ll hit enough that it doesn’t matter.

Skubal was rehabbing from Tommy John during his junior year at Seattle University and only managed to throw a few bullpen sessions in front of scouts before the 2017 draft. Scouts liked what they saw, but not enough to meet a price tag that was up around $1 million according to sources. Skubal went back to school and was horrendous early in the year before he slowly began to throw more and more strikes. Now 29 teams and their evaluators are cursing themselves for either failing to notice that upward trend throughout the 2018 spring, or for noticing but lacking conviction in the draft room.

There are some folks in baseball who have Skubal right up in the same tier with Mize and Manning. He has a dominant fastball, equal parts velocity, ride, and tough-to-square angle. So unhittable is Skubal’s heater that he’s struck out 37% of hitters during his pro career (48% over the final few weeks over Double-A play last year) while throwing the pitch roughly 70% of the time. No current big leaguer with a fastball that plays at the top of the zone throws their fastball that much; anyone close to 70% is a sinkerballer. An occasionally good changeup and slider aside, Skubal’s secondaries are not all that great in a vacuum, but luckily they too benefit from the funky angle created by Skubal’s cross-bodied, high-slot delivery. His overall swinging strike rate (18%) was higher than the rate on his fastball alone (15%), which means the secondaries were a net positive for him, but we’re unsure of what big league hitters will do if they know a fastball aimed at the letters is coming most of the time. So while he’s had nothing but goofy strikeout rates for two years, we think Skubal ends up more toward the middle of a rotation rather than the front.

Paredes has a .291/.376/.425 line in 166 Double-A games. He’s quite comfortable in the box, and shows balance throughout his swing and incredible hand-eye coordination. A lack of in-game power and/or defensive excellence, combined with the abnormally high bar to clear at third base right now, may overshadow Paredes’ short-term impact in a league-wide context. Body-related concerns about his athletic longevity pinch what we think he’ll do in his late 20s. Paredes should hit enough to be an average everday player, like Luis Arraez except on a corner.

We were quick to move off of Faedo after he sat out the summer of 2017, then returned in 2018 with a fastball several ticks lower than where it was at peak, but we did so prematurely. Much of his velocity was back in 2019. He’s still searching for a consistent changeup, one with a little more velocity separation than it currently has, but Faedo’s slider and slider command give him an out-pitch. He’s thrown about 120 innings each of the last several years and should end up with a similar big league workload, a No. 4/5 starter.

Wentz has given scouts a number of different looks over the years: he hit the showcase circuit as a position player while resting his arm, showing 70-grade raw power, then showed 92-95 heat and a plus curveball at times in an uneven spring, followed by a full season debut where he mostly sat 88-91 with a great changeup. In 2018, Wentz had shoulder and oblique issues and his stuff played closer to average; in 2019 he was a bit healthier and better. He still has a near ideal frame and athleticism to go with a bag of 50- and 55-grade pitches and other qualities that give him a good shot to be a No. 4/5 starter.

The Tigers are in a bit of a pickle with Perez. He’s one of the few position players in the system who has a realistic chance of playing some sort of everyday role because of his speed, defensive profile, and feel for contact. He’s also still very young, physically immature, and a very raw swinger from the left side of the plate. He’ll be Rule 5 eligible next winter. Unless Perez grows into better quality contact, be it physically, mechanically, or both, he may become one of the several quality prospects who get exposed in the Rule 5 every year because the parent club thinks they’re too raw for other teams to bite. Red Sox 2019 Rule 5 pick, Jonathan Arauz, is a similar player. For now, Perez projects as a second-division regular at shortstop so long as the bat-to-ball feel turns into more than spray/grounder contact.

2019 was the worst statistical season of Cameron’s career by far. Strikeout frequency (which had been an underlying issue throughout much of his pro tenure) combined with a low BABIP (well below Cameron’s career norm) to generate a .214/.330/.377 line. He still had 40 extra-base hits, and Cameron’s all-fields power (he doesn’t have huge raw, but he does have wall-scraping pop to center and right center because the swing has some inside out elements) and selectivity give him the ability to do some slugging damage and reach base amid all the whiffing. Daz has been a known prospect for seven or eight years now. He’s got great body control but isn’t especially toolsy, and his instincts and baseball acumen play a large role in his defensive ability and baserunning. Overall, he’s a well-rounded player with fair tools, a 1.5 WAR type.

Perez’s first few pro seasons were notable because of how quickly Houston pushed him through the minors. A polished strike-thrower with four good pitches, he reached Double-A as a 19-year-old back in 2017 before he became the centerpiece of the Justin Verlander deal. Advanced though he was, various injuries have robbed Perez of innings. In 2016, he had knee trouble; in 2018, it was a lat strain, then shoulder inflammation. An ominous trap issue popped up during the early parts of 2019 spring training but Perez was back on the mound quickly and sitting his usual 93-96 into late-March, before he had three IL stints — in April, May, and June — and was shut down for the year.

He has yet to throw more than 86 frames in an entire season, so while he may be fairly advanced for someone his age, and definitely for someone who has pitched so little, the industry has yet to see his stuff hold up for a whole summer of starter’s innings. He has mid-rotation stuff, but has one of the longest injury histories in the minors, and he’s barely 22.

The younger brother of Rays outfielder Austin Meadows, Parker has some similarities to his big league sibling, but his tools are actually compared more often to those of Indians center fielder Bradley Zimmer. Zimmer and the younger Meadows both have deceptively easy plus speed due to their long frames, and each has a plus arm and plus raw power; Christian Yelich is the advanced hitter version of this profile. But as a high schooler, Meadows’ main concern was tied to contact issues caused by his long limbs and lack of rhythm at the plate. The Tigers took him in the second round out of high school in 2018 and he hasn’t quite dialed in the offensive approach yet, with a high strikeout rate in the summer after signing and marginal power in his full-season debut, but the upside remains the same.

Quintana had a four-year track record of statistical performance dating back to his senior year of high school, but after the draft he suddenly stopped hitting against Low-A and Short Season pitching. His swing is somewhat grooved, but he has an athletic move forward and should hit a ton of doubles. A well-rounded offensive skillset and above-average defense at third is an everyday profile, but there’s some hit-tool risk here.

Lange’s velocity last year was back to what it was during his best days at LSU, and his strikeout rate spiked after the Cubs traded him to Detroit in the Nick Castellanos deal and he was moved to the bullpen. Our high speed footage shows Lange throwing two different breaking balls, though their movement is hard to distinguish in real time. The slider is effective despite lacking spin, and has late, downward movement. Lange might fit in a multi-inning relief role.

Castro shares many offensive similarities with a young Freddy Galvis. He’s a switch-hitter with some pop who hasn’t totally figured out how to get to that power in games yet. Galvis, who is a superior defender, figured it out and became a low-OBP, 45 FV type of player, so Castro fits in a tier below that. He may be a placeholder at shortstop.

Hess was a well-known power arm on the high school summer showcase circuit and into the spring, showing mid-90s heat, a plus power curveball, and a reliever’s command and approach in his best stints. Due to the prep righty reliever profile, his price wasn’t met and he went to LSU, where they tried to make him a starter after a solid freshman year in relief. The starter role never quite took, as he mostly sat in the low-90s with lesser stuff. His stuff got back to his showcase circuit best in pro ball in short stints, which seems like the best role for him going forward.

De la Cruz has a right field prospect toolkit straight out of central casting — plus raw power, plus arm, average underway speed, contact issues at present — and a year of DSL statistical performance arguably derived from his physical maturity. His Trackman data is very strong, especially for his age. He could be a middle of the order power bat, but he’s years away.

Injuries — shoulder inflammation, biceps tendinitis, oblique strain — ruined Burrows’ 2019. When healthy (well, when he was pitching), Burrows’ fastball was fine, but his secondaries were not. He could bounce back into the 45 FV tier if they’re back in 2020.

Packard’s junior year power output dipped because of injuries (back and wrist), but he had a stock-up summer after the draft. He’s patient, has above-average raw power, and looks like a potential Lucas Duda type of lefty stick.

Contact-related warts and all, we still like Rogers as a low-end regular who played elite defense while hitting for some pull power, much like what Austin Hedges has been. We’re not sure how valuable the foundation of Rogers’ skillset will be in a few years if automated strike zones are instituted, and fear interesting players like this will disappear if they are.

Hernandez is one of two Angels rookie-level pitchers Detroit received in the Ian Kinsler (Hernandez) and Justin Upton (Elvin Rodriguez) trades. Of the two, Hernandez is the one who experienced an uptick in velocity. Both had been in the 88-92 range with frames that portended more. Then last year, Hernandez was suddenly up to 96. And there might be another jump if Hernandez ends up in the bullpen, where he’d be a power fastball/breaking ball reliever. His changeup quality and year-over-year strike-throwing improvements merit continued development in the rotation, and give Hernandez a shot to be a No. 4/5 starter.

Reyes is one of several examples of Detroit targeting physically mature corner bats with present raw power on the amateur market. He worked out as a shortstop as an amateur but projected to third base at best. He has an athletic, rotational swing and plus bat speed, and his bat path has some natural lift, while his frame appears destined to add considerable mass and strength. Arm accuracy and mobility issues, especially as he gets bigger, could move Reyes way, way down the defensive spectrum, but he could end up with above or plus hit and power tools.

Clemens had a pretty strong Florida State League line (.238/.314/.411 is above average in the FSL), albeit as an old-for-the-level hitter. He generates consistent hard contact because of the strength in his wrists and hands. His lower half and hands often appear disconnected, which can result in ugly contact that’s still hit hard because of Clemens’ strength. He projects as a one-ish win, shift-aided second baseman.

Even on a loaded Arkansas team, Kenley stayed under the national scouting radar since he didn’t play much until his junior year, and was an infielder without much power who didn’t play shortstop. He shows 45 raw power in BP, but has a flat swing plane that’s geared for line drives and contact. He seems like candidate for a swing change, but could also carve out a bench role as a lefty-hitting, contact oriented bench bat infielder along the lines of Tommy LaStella.

A vanilla but well-rounded college infielder, Kreidler’s best defensive fit is at third base, but he’s fundamentally sound enough to stand at a middle infield spot if needed. A conservative, contact-oriented approach coupled with limited raw power shade the projection toward a bench infield/utility type.

Campos defected from Cuba with his brother in 2016 at a Little League tournament in the Dominican Republic. The Tigers locked him up pretty quickly after their first couple looks, with some clubs barely seeing him at all. He’s a corner outfield prospect with present power who needs to hit to profile. We know next to nothing about the hit tool at this point.

The career saves leader at Miami, Garcia tore through the minors and pitched across four levels, all the way to Triple-A, in his first full pro season. Then he blew out during the spring of 2018. He works fastball/slider to righties, fastball/changeup to lefties, and both secondaries are very firm, upper-80s pitches. Neither is a dominant offering, but the pitch mix lifts Garcia above an up/down role.

Chiang is going to pitch in the big leagues next year. He throws hard (up to 96 during a pre-tournament exhibition, up to 98 during the 2019 minor league season) and has a backspinning fastball due to his vertical arm slot. He’ll also flash a plus changeup, which he uses against right-handed hitters sometimes, and his two-plane slider is fringy. It’s an arm strength relief profile.

He’s not as physically projectable as most pitchers his age, but Montero’s fastball will crest around 95 and he has a potential out-pitch in his curveball.

Funkhouser was added to Detroit’s 40-man despite more injury and erratic performance in 2019. At times he’ll show three above-average pitches; at others he can’t get anyone out. He hasn’t thrown more than 100 innings in any pro season, and at this point he’s considered a relief prospect with a long track record of injury.

Rodriguez was an advanced pitchability righty with physical projection when Detroit acquired him from the Angels for Justin Upton. He’s now 22, and the velo hasn’t arrived. He still has a great build and arm action, but he’s looking like a sixth or seventh starter now because the heat just hasn’t come.

Lipcius moved from first base as a freshman, to shortstop as a sophomore, to his natural home of third base as a junior at Tennessee, and then all over the infield during his first taste of pro ball. He hit for more power in his draft year than was expected given a contact-oriented approach (Lipcius ditches his leg kick with two strikes, and he’s willing to poke balls, softly, the other way). He projects as a multi-positional bench infielder.

Garcia spent most of 2019 at Double-A Trenton, where he posted a FIP of 4.21, then he went first overall in the 2019 Rule 5 Draft. He sits 91-94 and touches 95 with pretty significant fastball spin for that velo range — about 2400 rpm on average — but because Garcia has a lower arm slot, the pitch doesn’t have the kind of lift that would miss bats. The arm slot and Garcia’s above-average, two-plane breaking ball make him especially tough on righties, who he held to a .197/.273/.356 line in 2019. The changeup needs to get better if Garcia is going to continue to start, but Detroit is becoming quite good at implementing coherent pitch design, so maybe it will, or perhaps the Tigers will find a way to give him a relevant second breaking ball.

Foley’s arm strength was back after his Tommy John, but his out-pitch changeup was not. His secondary pitch of choice last year was a slider. He’d be a 40 FV with that split/change back in the fold, but as an arm strength-only sort, he’s more of an up/down reliever.

“This guy isn’t pitching yet?” one of us was asked by a source as we talked about this system. Alcantara has a laser arm, he can run, he’s a good defensive shortstop, and he even has above-average ball/strike recognition. But the quality of contact is arguably insufficient for even a utility role. He’s nearly out of option years. We wonder if reps in center might enable a 26th man sort of role, but also think it’s possible the Tigers give a conversion to the mound a shot since Detroit is getting better at developing pitchers, including a few interesting conversion arms.

Pinto has a huge fastball and both of his secondaries dovetail in opposite directions, but neither has consistent, bat-missing movement. Fold in a career walk rate in the teens, and even though he’s doing damage with his fastball at Double-A, Pinto was passed over in the Rule 5. He’s only 21 and is a realistic up/down relief prospect with some ceiling above that due to the arm strength.

He doesn’t have sleeves (which is the nature of the garment) but Vest still does a good job hiding the ball from hitters. His deceptive, overhand delivery looks like a trebuchet and creates late carry on his fastball, which sat 94 and touched 97 during the season, but was 91-93 in Eric’s Fall league looks. His secondary stuff is more average, so it’s important the velo returns.

Two seasons ago, Guzman was an exciting, new conversion arm who was sitting in the mid-90s and rapidly gaining feel for a good changeup. But in 2019, his stuff was down, his command backed up, and he was eventually shut down with injury. Rather than a 2019 leap placing Guzman in late-inning air, he’s now a bounce-back candidate who won’t be on the list if his velo isn’t back in the spring.

An extreme strike-thrower, Richan is severly lacking in stuff. He relies on freezing people and inducing weak contact with his changeup and fastball location. He’s likely a sixth starter type.

McMillan is an athletic, well-built catcher with ball/strike recognition, and a slow bat. He projects as a third catcher on the 40-man, and his build suggests he’ll probably hang around for a while.

De Jesus signed at 19 and had been slow to develop (he spent parts of three seasons in the DSL) until 2019, when he skipped a level, then earned a mid-year promotion to Hi-A. He throws hard — 91-96 with huge extension — and his fastball has relevant movement up and away from lefty batters. He’s well-built but not very athletic, and he throws a lot of non-competitive pitches because he struggles to repeat. He’s a lower probability reliever but there’s some ceiling because of how the fastball plays.

Even though he hit .278/.340/.474 as a 20-year-old at Double-A Mississippi, there are still some level-headed, long-term questions about Pache’s offensive ability. He had a 17% swinging strike rate last year (if we 20-80’d swinging strike rates, that’d be a 30), and you might quibble with elements of the swing, most notably that the bat path only allows for power in certain parts of the zone, and Pache has a passive, shorter move forward. The hand speed and rotational ability to hit for power is there, and he’s athletic enough to make adjustments in order to get to that power (selectivity might also be an issue), which, coupled with some of the flashiest, most acrobatic defense in pro baseball, gives Pache a cathedral ceiling.

Even though he’s already started to slow down a little bit, Pache’s reads in center, his contortionistic ability to slide and dive at odd angles to make tough catches, and his arm strength combine to make him a premium defensive center fielder — he’s a likely Gold Glover barring unexpected, precipitous physical regression. Even if he’s not posting All-Star offensive statlines, we think he’ll provide All-Star value overall because of the glove.

Waters’ initial rise to top 50 prospect status was surprising to some, coming as it did by the end of his first full season. He’s got 55-to-60 grade tools across the board and always hit in high school. Some teams were and remain turned off by his loud personality, while others just see him as a colorful guy. The other concern is his aggressive approach at the plate, which didn’t give him any trouble until his taste of Triple-A late in 2019, and some scouts and analysts think it could be a problem in the big leagues.

That’s the soft part of the profile, but the indicators both to the eye (scouts rave about the swing, bat speed, and feel at the plate) and in the stats point to elite ability to manipulate the bat. One club told us his percentage of balls hit with 95 mph-plus exit velo and a launch angle between 10 and 30 degrees (i.e. hard hit line drives and fly balls) was in the top 3% of the entire minor leagues. And that comes as a 20-year-old in the upper minors who has plus speed and a plus arm, and who profiles in center field, with other variables that could allow you to keep rounding up from there. The happy version of this story is Starling Marte, and as soon as the middle of 2020; the sad version includes multiple years stuck in neutral at the big league level, trying to argue that the upside and defense makes up for the big strikeout rate. We’re leaning more to Marte at this point.

Anderson is tracking like a mid-rotation starter, even though he hasn’t added velocity since high school, because his secondary stuff is excellent. The pitch with the most obvious beauty is his shapely curveball, which has enough depth (despite its paltry spin rate) to miss bats in the zone, and also pairs well with his fastball’s approach angle. His change has tail and fade, and either it or the curve can finish hitters. The Braves amateur department really stuck out their necks in 2016 by cutting an underslot deal with Anderson, and then using the savings to sign Kyle Muller and Bryse Wilson, who are both key near-term pitching staff stalwarts, and Joey Wentz, who was traded. That’s an impressive class, especially considering how risky a subgroup prep pitching is.

Wright has now had two frustrating cups of coffee with the big league club, and some of his underlying issues (chiefly, a fastball that doesn’t produce results anywhere close to what you’d expect given how hard he throws) mimic those of the Aaron Sanchez type of pitching prospects who Look Right but don’t quite pan out.

We’re betting that Wright, who is very athletic and has the frame and mechanical ease to eat innings, and who has also developed a very deep repertoire, will find a way to be at least a league-average starter eventually. Whether that’s through further changes to his fastballs’ movement (he throws a four- and two-seamer right now, but both are sink/tail pitches rather than the ride/vertical life breed) or a heavy mix of his various secondary offerings, Wright has promising outs. If he and the Braves ever find a way to make the fastball play better than that, his ceiling is substantial, so there’s rare variance for a 24-year-old here.

Wilson is a scout favorite. He’s an aggressive bulldog with a football background who relies on spotting his fastball in all quadrants of the zone, with the velocity, movement, and command all grading above average on his various fastballs (he has a distinct four-seamer, two-seamer, and cutter). He’s a solid athlete with strong command and a solid average changeup, and everyone raves about his work ethic and makeup.

The issue, which will dictate his value in the bullpen or rotation, is his breaking ball. He’s been working on the slider all offseason and the team is optimistic that all his other strong qualities will manifest themselves in its development. Wilson will be limited to one time through the order if he can’t live up to that optimism, though it’s not as if there isn’t value in that, and Wilson’s mentality might arguably be better suited for it.

Stay on Contreras despite the relatively vanilla offensive performance. The Braves pushed him quickly — half a year at Hi-A, half at Double-A at age 21 — and the developmental priority seems to be defense for now. Contreras also has quite a bit more raw power than his 2019 output would suggest. His swing is a lot like Pache’s right now, which is indicative of some of his issues but also how athletic Contreras is for a catcher. He can drop the bat head and yank balls out to his pull side at times, then lunge at breaking stuff away from him at others. It’s rare physical talent for a catcher who projects as Atlanta’s everyday backstop.

Davidson was a low-profile JC arm who the Braves gambled on in 2016. After improving his body composition entering the 2017 season, his stuff and command improved too, and he looked like a potential no. 4 starter. After plateauing at that level for a bit, Davidson’s 2019 represented another step forward. He ran his heater up to 98 during the regular season, then got some attention weeks ago when he hit 100 mph at Driveline on a motion capture-enabled mound. His four-seam fastball has big rise and velocity, while his curveball has plus spin and his slider is 88-91 mph, with all three garnering strong results in terms of whiffs and grounders. The main adjustments in this bump were mechanical, with another round of refinements to his frame. There’s now mid-rotation upside, and Davidson has reached Triple-A as the optimization process is now closer to complete.

Langeliers was a mid-tier prospect in high school who took a big step forward as a freshman at Baylor and on the Cape that summer, developing the raw power to be more than just a catch-and-throw type. He still didn’t put up much in the way of traditional statistical production until the second half of his junior season, which amazingly occurred after a very quick return from a broken hamate bone. He was scouted heavily over the summer with Team USA, so scouts knew solid average raw power and some feel for contact were present to go along with above average defensive skills and a plus arm.

Langeliers’ frame is compact and stout, and his bat’s impact is a question mark, but he has everyday tools and more power should come in 2020 with the broken hamate in the rear view.

Shewmake isn’t a traditionally exciting player, as nobody really saw big raw power or flashy tools leading up to the draft. Some clubs were down on him and we piled on by moving him down in our rankings just before Day One, seeing a non-shortstop with a track record of hitting but without much power or any loft, who seemed one-dimensional given a swing that often barred-out. It would appear that point of view was wrong, given Shewmake’s quick transition to pro ball, which better showcased his ability. He went straight to Low-A after signing and was outstanding at the plate, with an excellent approach and sneaky power, to go along with very positive public and private defensive metrics at shortstop.

The key gap between the two points of view was tied to Shewmake’s long frame: his long stride made his speed, defensive range, and defensive instincts seem less impressive and impactful, when in reality, they may all be plus. There’s also raw power upside if there’s more physical development and a possible loft/swing adjustment, and that now seems more likely given how advanced, instinctual, and coachable he’s proven to be so far. There’s a good bit more variability here than you’d expect for a college hitter with a three-year major conference track record, so the first half of 2020 will let us know if there’s more helium left in this balloon.

A bit of a pitch design autodidact who got the Driveline treatment during the 2018-2019 offseason, Muller came back with more interesting stuff, as well as a skyrocketing walk rate. His stuff is great, especially the fastball, which has one of the highest spin rates in the minors. Muller’s delivery has become less staccato, less deliberate, and more athletic, but his max-effort style and difficulty repeating likely pushes him to the bullpen, or at least keeps his innings count down if he ends up starting.

Not only does Jackson have the highest hard hit rate (95 mph or above) in this system, he has one of the highest in the minors, as 51% of his balls in play last year were scorched. His epicurean approach at the plate, and what it does to his peripherals, makes Jackson a hit-tool risk, and at most other positions that would be very scary. While he is still not a great catcher, he improved considerably in 2019 defensively, particularly at framing, by copying some of Tyler Flowers‘ methods. The league average wRC+ at catcher before framing quantification was in the low 90s. If things return to that level, Jackson’s power should enable him to profile everyday. He could be more of a backup, DH/1B sort for a few years and fall into an everyday role toward the end of our six-year evaluation window.

De La Cruz is sitting 91-97 and touching 99 as a starter, and it’s reasonable to expect that he will be parked toward the top of that velocity range in relief, which is where we have him projected. It’s rare for deliveries as chaotic and violent as De La Cruz’s to root into a rotation, but with his arm strength and the power, downward action on his slider, he could end up with high-leverage stuff. He’s now on the 40-man.

Harris would have been an elite college player with top-five round ability both as a hitter and a pitcher, but most scouts preferred him on the mound. He was used unusually during his senior spring, and some scouts think that he could be 90-93 with everything average to above within 12 months in a pro setting, counting on his quick arm and above average athleticism, projectable frame, and his limited showcase presence and coaching in the projection.

The Braves preferred Harris as a hitter most of the spring; he blew them away in a pre-draft private workout, showing plus raw power, making him a priority on draft day. He also beat expectations in his pro debut, and there’s now some thought that he could be a center fielder as he gets more instruction, and may get faster as he gets stronger. There’s no bad data to consider due to his lack of exposure before his draft spring, so some would see Harris as a comp round pick in a 2019 redraft. We won’t really know his ceiling until he fails some, making him one of the biggest risers from the 2019 class thus far.

Vodnik got on the national stage hitting 97 mph in the fall before his draft year, but his size and 87-90 mph draft spring velo kept him from becoming a high pick. The Braves scooped him up late and got him back to 92-95, touching 98 mph, with solid average offspeed in instructional league the fall after the draft. He made another stuff jump in 2019.

Vodnik is a good athlete with plus extension, particularly for his size, and he’ll run his heater up to 100 while mixing in a plus breaking ball and throwing more strikes than Jasseel De La Cruz. But Vodnik is still on the smaller side, and is more butcher than surgeon. Given the athleticism and lack of experience with his current arm speed, Atlanta is optimistic and wants Vodnik to tell them what sort of role suits him best going forward, with one to two inning relief stints most likely.

Because he was a high school teammate of 2019 fifth overall pick Riley Greene, Grissom was heavily scouted as he broke out during his senior spring, rising from a pocket follow to an early round prospect. The Braves saved money on their picks in the top 10 round so they could splurge on prep prospects who slipped. Grissom wanted to be a Brave and Atlanta scouted him closely all spring, convinced he could stick at shortstop, despite a 6-foot-3, 180 pound frame that had many scouts assuming he’d move off the position. His tools are average to a hair above across the board, and his offensive approach is more power-over-bat.

In many ways, Ynoa is like De La Cruz: a minor league starter with big time arm strength who ultimately projects in the bullpen. In fact, some industry feedback on this org list thought Ynoa, who is a little younger than De La Cruz and a level ahead of him in the minors, belonged higher. But Ynoa’s slider has horizontal wipe and relies more on location to miss bats, and he doesn’t stick it there consistently, whereas others in the system are more likely to have an impact breaking ball. The Braves briefly tried Ynoa in the bullpen last year before returning him to the rotation for most of the summer, but we think he’ll ultimately end up in middle relief role.

Tarnok was primarily a hitter in high school, and many teams didn’t take him seriously as a pitcher or even see him multiple times until late in the spring. The Braves were the team highest on him, and talked him into giving pitching a shot full-time with a well-over-slot bonus.

Tarnok is, as expected, still raw, but it’s easy to see what Braves scouts were so excited about: he has near-ideal body and arm action, along with standout arm strength, athleticism, and ability to spin the ball. He was a trendy breakout pick for 2019 but had a mostly lost year, including a velo dip into the mid-to-upper-80s in a game we saw, but bounced back to the normal 92-95 mph heater late in the year. Some teams were ready to buy low during the velo dip, but the Braves still believe in Tarnok’s potential.

Alexander (the brother of D-backs shortstop prospect Blaze Alexander) slid to the 20th round due to questions about his profile as a large-framed, power-first, likely first baseman who had only player at the JC level and was 22 just after the draft. He answered many of these questions with a big pro debut, getting to Hi-A and playing in instructs, where his defense at third base was better than expected as was his hit ability against pro-level pitching. The profile is now a prospect who’s a lefty stick who can play all four corner spots, but his progress slowed with an injury-marred 2019. He’s still a hair ahead of Trey Harris and Greyson Jenista in the bench power bat competition near the bottom of the list.

Walker is a big, athletic kid who’s always had an above average sinker — which got into the mid-90s deep into games — along with two good breaking balls and control. But his command, changeup, and the optimization of his tools kept him from reaching his potential as a starter. In 2019, the Braves moved him to the bullpen, and things went well, leading to a late-season cup of coffee. Walker leaned into the heavy sinker and the curveball and found something that works for him. The role is a groundball middle reliever who could also be a longman who goes multiple innings, but the upside is basically just a 40 FV if he gets there.

Paolini was known to most Northeast area scouts entering the spring of 2019, but as a kid who wasn’t good enough at the Area Code Games tryouts the summer before to go see again in the spring when the weather warmed up. Atlanta was one of the only teams that scouted him heavily; in face, many teams didn’t turn him in at all. The Braves came up with $600,000 to buy him out of a commitment to Elon as a pure tools bet.

He has above average power potential, easy plus speed, and an above average arm, along with the elements to hit, but not much of a track record against pro-level pitching yet, so this one may move slowly.

Jenista had mid-first round buzz at times leading up to his draft year, with a deceptively-athletic body that packed plus raw power, average speed, and an above average arm into a 6-foot-4, 240 pound frame. We dinged him at draft time for having too flat of a swing plane for his type of player, and cautioned that he may age quicker than other similarly-aged and tooled guys.

He made it to Double-A by age 22 in 2019, but the lack of in-game, over-the-fence-power, along with too many strikeouts as he’s reached the upper levels means that real changes need to be made soon to keep his prospect status. His results were stronger in the second half of 2019, and appeared to be BABIP-fueled, but the Braves saw some positive adjustments.

After two seasons at Northern Iowa Community College, which has produced a bunch of NFL players — including Kurt Warner — but never an MLB athlete, Ball transferred to Dallas Baptist for his junior year, and he raked. He followed up a .362/.487/.625 line at NIACC with .325/.443/.614 at DBU, then followed that up with a raucous summer in pro ball. Between his spring with the Patriots and summer with the Braves, Ball hit 35 bombs, though many came while he was in the GCL, crushing pitching that was beneath him. The power is real.

There’s skepticism surrounding the bat control, but Ball has the power to mis-hit balls into the gaps, or over the fence. We want to see him pushed quickly and see how the contact skills play against full-season pitching, but Atlanta may have something here.

Devito’s stuff was up after the draft. He was 90-94 when former FanGraphs’ Northeast correspondent Josh Herzenberg saw him during the spring, then he was up to 97 after he signed, like on the Cape the summer before. The command/control element is still on the starter/relief-only fringe, but if Devito’s pitch-quality improves a little bit he has a strong chance to be a three-pitch reliever.

Harris is a stocky stick of right-handed hitting dynamite, listed at just 5-foot-8. He was a 2018 senior sign who, after two bad underclass years, has performed at every stop. He could play a lefty-hitting bench outfield role.

Weigel had made tons of progress through college and the low minors, and was on track to possibly be a big league starter (or a late-inning reliever if the command didn’t come) until he needed Tommy John surgery as he got to Triple-A in 2017. He returned late in 2018 and in instructional league with velo that peaked in the mid-90’s, but he wasn’t all the way back yet. The Braves added him to the 40-man anyway, expecting his stuff to return and by the end of 2019, it had.

Weigel’s velo is back to pre-surgery levels, sitting 95 and hitting 99. His slider is above average while his curveball and changeup flash average and his command is fringy. He was best when in relief in Triple-A late in the year, and is likely a big league middle reliever with a little more in his toolbox than the average two-pitch bull in a china shop.

From his time at Vanderbilt through his 2018 pro season, Pfeifer was a reliever with four pitches and fringe command. His performance was never quite good enough to become a big league middle reliever, so as a last resort of sorts in his age 26/27 season, the Braves put him in the Hi-A rotation in 2019. His performance was fantastic, with comparable stuff to his relief self through the aid of pitch design (90-94, touching 95, a slider and curveball both flashing above average, with the changeup behind), and he made his way back to Triple-A in this new role. He was added to the 40-man roster this winter and may now be an inventory, multi-role big league piece if he can sustain in this role.

Owens was a smallish righty who looked likely to be a valuable college utility arm for Florida (up to 95, solid average breaking ball, some feel) until he hit 98 mph in a pre-draft All-Star game, at which point the Braves felt comfortable overpaying him in the 13th round for $547,500. He hit 99 mph in his pro debut and, similar to Victor Vodnik, will also flash a plus breaking ball at times with the newfound arm speed. He’s likely limited to short stints given his build, and the command hasn’t been quite dialed in since the velo bump.

By torching the Appy League during his first pro summer, Gorman laid to rest any concerns that his whiff-prone pre-draft spring was anything more than a hiccup caused by the whiplash of going from facing elite, showcase high schoolers (who he crushed) to soft-tossing, Arizona varsity pitchers. He struck out a lot (again) during the 2018 stretch run, when St. Louis pushed him to Low-A Peoria because he wasn’t being challenged in Johnson City. Sent back to Peoria for the first half of 2019, Gorman adjusted to full-season pitching and roasted the Midwest League to the tune of a .241/.344/.448 line, cutting his strikeout rate by eight percentage points. He was promoted to the Florida State League for the second half, and while his walk rate halved and his strikeout rate crept above 30% again, Gorman still managed to post an above-average line for that league as a 19-year-old. The strikeout issues will only become a real concern once Gorman stops showing an ability to adjust over a long period of time.

His huge power, derived from his imposing physicality and explosive hand speed, is likely to play in games because of the lift in Gorman’s swing and his feel for impacting the ball in the air. Because we’re talking about a teenager of considerable size, there’s a chance Gorman has to move off of third base at some point, but for now we’re cautiously optimistic about him staying there for the early part of his big league tenure. There are apt body comps to be made to either of the Seager brothers, while the offensive profile looks more like Miguel Sanó‘s.

A year ago, on the Cardinals list and in our Picks to Click article, we tabbed Carlson as one of the prospects in this org likely to break out. But even we didn’t expect he’d nearly go 20/20 and slug .518 at Double-A Springfield. Judging by the fervor this performance created among our more fantasy-focused readers, they may be wondering why we were ahead of the curve a year ago, but aren’t hitting the gas on Carlson’s evaluation now after the year he had. We certainly like him — Carlson is balanced and coordinated while hitting from both sides of the plate, his left-handed swing has gorgeous lift and finish, he has advanced bat control for a switch-hitter this age, he’s athletic and moves well for his size, and he has high-end makeup. But we have some questions about the ultimate ceiling.

Carlson is an average runner and a large dude for a 20-year-old. His instincts in center field are okay, but not good enough to overcome long speed that typically falls short at the position. Because of where we have his arm strength graded, we think he fits in left field or at first base. The TrackMan data we sourced also indicates that his 2019 line is a bit of a caricature. His average exit velo (about 88 mph) and rate of balls in play at 95 mph or higher (about 34%) are both right around the big league average, rather than exceptional. The in-office types we talk to about this kind of thing are in love with Carlson because he’s only 20, and they anticipate these things will improve, but visual evaluation of his build don’t suggest as much physical projection as is typical of someone this young, because he’s already a big guy. As a result, he was on the 50/55 FV line for us during the process of compiling this list. The league-average offensive production in left field has been lower than you might expect (it’s 100 wRC+ over the last five years) and Carlson might also be able to play a situational center field when the Cards are behind and need offense, as well as some first base. That versatility is valuable, so he tipped into the 55 FV range. But we think he’s closer to the line than one might conclude if they were just looking at his surface stats.

With January’s trade with Tampa Bay, the Cardinals rolled some of their seemingly unending, upper-level outfield depth into Libby, That means that between him and childhood friend Nolan Gorman, the Cardinals, who picked 19th in the 2018 draft, now have two of the players most teams had in the top five to seven spots on their pre-draft boards in the system.

Because Liberatore’s fastball has sinker movement, the growth of his changeup is going to be the most important aspect of his development, since those two pitches have similar movement, and will theoretically tunnel better. The results produced by his knockout curveball, which has all-world depth, may suffer because he doesn’t have an up-in-the-zone four-seamer to pair with it, but should Liberatore decide to get ahead of hitters by dumping that curveball into the zone, good luck to them. It’s the type of pitch that’s hard to hit even if you know it’s coming, but might be easy to lay off of, in the dirt, because its Loch Ness Monster hump is easy to identify out of the hand. All of the advanced pitchability stuff — Libby started learning a slider during his senior year of high school, he varies his timing home, and he’s likely to pitch backwards with the breaking balls — is here, too, and that’ll be important given the lack of a bat-missing fastball. The total package should result in an above-average big league starter.

When we began sourcing data on the Cardinals system, we weren’t aware of a max exit velocity for a teenager in excess of 109 mph (Kristian Robinson, Marco Luciano, Luis Toribio) — until we learned of Herrera’s. It was surprising considering Herrera is physically quite modest, and looked sluggish at times during the Fall league, but by that point he had played in three times as many games as he had the year before, and was likely exhausted. Regular season Herrera was a little leaner, twitchy, and athletic, and was an advanced defender with a mature approach at the plate. He also hit .286/.381/.423 as a 19-year-old catcher in the Midwest League. This guy checks all the proverbial boxes and looks like a well-rounded everyday catching prospect.

Arguably the most talented college arm in the 2019 draft, Thompson fell, at least in part, because of injury issues speckled throughout his amateur career. He was used pretty conservatively in a bullpen role after he signed for workload/health reasons, but expect the Cardinals to push him to the upper levels next year, as they often do with recently-drafted college arms.

The headline pitch here is the curveball, a deadly, mid-70s parabola much like Liberatore’s. Like Libby, Thompson’s fastball traits don’t fit perfectly with it and it probably won’t matter very much. The changeup is already quite good, a likely second out-pitch. Thompson gets down the mound well, his arm action is loose (though it comes through a little late), and he has east/west command of all his stuff. He’s a concerning injury risk, but has top 100 stuff.

Knizner’s 2019 was a great example of how the convergence of the PCL’s hitting environment and lively big league baseball affected statistics at that level. His .276/.357/.463 line was only good enough for a 99 wRC+, the lowest of his career. Long a contact-oriented doubles hitter with a very compact stroke, Knizner is perhaps not the sort of hitter who would have greatly benefitted from a bouncier ball. He’s still a much better hitter than most big league catchers, but he’s a bad receiver. For the last two years, we were hopeful Knizner would become a passable defender, if later than most, because he only started catching in his early 20s, but it still hasn’t happened. He and Yadier Molina are the only two catchers currently on the Cardinals’ 40-man, so it looks like he’s slated for some kind of timeshare, at least for his rookie season, the last of Yadi’s contract.

His value may be impacted by the implementation of robot umps, which would make Knizner poor receiving moot, but would also put more pressure on him to hit for some power since suddenly every gloveless backstop who can hit will suddenly be viable back there. Knizner’s bat-to-ball skills should make him a second-division regular in that scenario.

We’ve gone from thinking Cabrera was a high-probability middle relief piece with a shot at pitching high-leverage or multiple innings, to thinking either of those outcomes is likely, and that he has a shot at pitching in St. Louis’ rotation. He has premium lefty velocity, and two usable secondaries. In a vacuum, we prefer Cabrera’s changeup to his breaking ball, but his delivery is violent and deceptive, featuring a huge hook in the back (the flexibility in Cabrera’s upper back is incredible) and a huge stride home before the ball suddenly appears from a high three-quarters slot.