On Monday, the A’s made the biggest trade of the year when they sent Matt Olson to the Braves. This morning, they kept the momentum going and made the second-biggest trade of the year. Matt Chapman is headed to Canada in exchange for a four-prospect return:

Blue Jays deal for Matt Chapman is done. Kevin Smith, Gunnar Hoglund, Zach Logue and Kirby Snead are headed to Athletics, per source.

— Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) March 16, 2022

Oakland doesn’t do anything by half measures, and with Olson and Chris Bassitt out the door, the team was in competitive limbo. Toronto was in search of a new infielder after Marcus Semien left in free agency. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize the potential fit here, and the two teams were linked in trade rumors for much of the locked-out offseason.

From the Jays’ perspective, this trade gets them exactly what they wanted. After losing two of their top starting pitchers in free agency, they signed Kevin Gausman and Yusei Kikuchi to fill holes in the rotation. That still left them with a diminished offensive group, and there weren’t any obvious free agent fits to spruce things up. It may have been a coincidence, but as the Jays pursued Freddie Freeman and Kyle Schwarber, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was spotted doing third base drills, a sign of how intent the Jays were on shoehorning another hitter into their lineup, positional fit notwithstanding. Read the rest of this entry »

After acquiring José Berríos at last year’s trade deadline and signing Kevin Gausman to a massive five-year deal in November, the Blue Jays put the finishing touch on remaking their starting rotation by signing Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year contract on Saturday. The deal is worth $36 million, with $16 million of that total frontloaded in 2022. The lefty will slot into the back of Toronto’s rotation — one that suddenly looks like a strength for a team that came just a game shy of the postseason in 2021.

That Kikuchi was available as a free agent at all was a bit of a surprise. The Mariners declined what was a uniquely structured four-year option valued at $16.5 million per year at the end of last season, and he declined his $13 million player option. Looking at his season, you can understand why. Though he started off well last year, putting up a 3.48 ERA during the first half of the season and earning the Mariners’ lone All-Star selection, he fell apart after the break, with his ERA ballooning to 5.98.

The inconsistency is something the Blue Jays will need to figure out if they want to maximize the promising raw skills that Kikuchi possesses. After debuting in 2019 with a four-seam fastball that averaged just 92.5 mph, he spent the offseason optimizing his mechanics to unlock an increase in fastball velocity. It worked: During the shortened 2020 season, he came out throwing 95 mph — the fifth-hardest fastball thrown by a left-handed starter during these past two seasons — and was able to maintain that velocity jump in ‘21. With all that extra heat, the whiff rate on his four-seamer jumped up from 15.9% in 2019 to 30.5% over the last two years. Read the rest of this entry »

Today marks the 79th day of the owner-initiated lockout. It still remains to be seen how long the lockout will last, but whatever its length, we’re likely to see a whirlwind of a mini-offseason as soon as the league and the players come to terms on a new collective bargaining agreement. While that kind of thing is fun to cover — the week before the lockout was a thrilling frenzy — there’s still quite a lot for baseball to do. So let’s roll up our sleeves, lend a hand, and find some new homes for a few of the remaining free agents. The trick here is that they actually have to make at least a lick of sense for the team signing them. But just a lick.

As we have a lot of work to do, we’ll nail down the hitters first and then divvy up the pitchers in another piece to follow.

Carlos Correa to the Angels – Seven years, $240 million

While there has been some speculation around the interwebs about Carlos Correa possibly landing a $300 million deal, I don’t think that is the likeliest result. Correa had a fabulous 2021 season, reminding people of the phenom he was when he won American League Rookie of the Year back in 2015, but there’s going to be at least some concerns about his durability. Not alarming ones, mind you, but the fact is that before 2021’s 148-game campaign, Correa hadn’t played in 120 games since ’16, a long time for a young player, and that’s even ignoring a pandemic-shortened season during which no one could play 120 games. That’s probably not going to scare teams off, but it will inevitably be priced into his offers since front offices these days are populated more by mean nerds like me than they are dewy-eyed optimists. Read the rest of this entry »

Samad Taylor stepped up his game last year. After at times disappointing at the dish in his early seasons of professional baseball, the 23-year-old infielder/outfielder broke out to the tune of a .294/.385/.503 slash line with Double-A New Hampshire. Moreover, he showed surprising pop for a player who profiles as more of a table-setter than a middle-of-the-order masher. Carrying 170 pounds on his 5-foot-10 frame, Taylor left the yard 16 times in 374 plate appearances. He also swiped 30 bases.

The Corona, California native came to Toronto via trade. Cleveland’s 10th-round pick in the 2016 draft, Taylor changed organizations the ensuing summer in the deal that sent sidearmer Joe Smith to the shores of Lake Erie. First featured here at FanGraphs following a statistically-poor 2018 season, Taylor proceeded to scuffle again in 2019, then miss an entire season, as did his minor-league brethren, due to the pandemic. As evidenced by his 2021 output, the changes he began making over the COVID shutdown — mental and physical alike — proved a panacea.

Taylor will enter the upcoming campaign ranked No. 36 on our Toronto Blue Jays Top Prospects list.

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David Laurila: This past year was by far your best in pro ball. What changed?

Samad Taylor: “It was just understanding myself as a ballplayer, understanding what my approach is. In previous years, I was in the box trying to do too much. I would come up in certain situations and try to be the hero, when in reality, being a hero wasn’t necessary. I didn’t understand that. I didn’t understand myself as a hitter. Read the rest of this entry »

Fred McGriff will likely be on the ballot when the Today’s Game Committee votes in December, and his candidacy is already creating a bit of a buzz. For good reason. The “Crime Dog” finished his career with 493 long balls — he won a home-run title in both leagues along the way — as well as 1,550 RBIs and three Silver Slugger awards. Moreover, he escaped the steroid era unscathed. Highly respected by his peers and fans alike, McGriff is viewed by many as deserving of a plaque in Cooperstown. That he never garnered more than 39.8% support in BBWAA balloting is seen as an injustice.

Which brings us to a player who received a paltry 3.8% in his lone year on the ballot. Was Carlos Delgado just as good, if not better than McGriff? WAR says he wasn’t — McGriff had 56.9 to Delgado’s 44.1 — but in terms of offensive bona fides, the numbers suggest he was. Here is a snapshot of what they did at the plate:

Delgado: 2,035 games, 2.038 hits, 473 HR, .280/.383/.546, .391 wOBA, 138 OPS+.
McGriff: 2,460 games, 2,490 hits, 493 HR, .284/.377/.509, .383 wOBA, 134 OPS+.

A clear majority of the people who weighed in on my recent “Who Was The Better Hitter?” Twitter poll sided with Delgado. The Puerto Rico-born slugger — himself the winner of three Silver Sluggers — won out by a count of 75% to 25%. Might the results have been different had the poll read “Who Was The Better Player?” That’s an interesting question. Would the voters have prioritized their respective WAR totals or, given that both were first basemen, focused primarily on metrics such as wOBA and wRC+?

Regardless of how Delgado’s overall career compares to McGriff’s, one can make a strong argument that he too should be on the forthcoming Today’s Game ballot. Even if he were to ultimately fall short — a strong likelihood given the candidates expected to be considered — Delgado deserves another look after being a one-and-done on a stacked BBWAA ballot. Admirable for his off-the-field efforts — his résumé includes a non-profit foundation and a Roberto Clemente Award — Delgado was one of the best hitters of his era.

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RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS

Slim Sallee went 2 for 5 against Sailor Stroud.

Gabby Street went 2 for 5 against Gus Salve.

Cy Seymour went 2 for 5 against Willie Sudhoff.

Mackey Sasser went 2 for 5 against Bob Scanlan.

Champ Summers went 2 for 5 against Lary Sorensen.

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ESPN’s Top 100 Players of All Time — a ranking compiled by dozens of the Worldwide Leader’s writers and editors — has spurred a lot of debate. That’s understandable, and to a large degree, it was by design. Subjective listings of this ilk typically make for quality water-cooler discourse (an activity currently best-defined as “arguing on Twitter”).

Count me among those who rolled their eyes when perusing the rankings. No disrespect to the people who put it together, but in my humble opinion, some of the placements are borderline absurd. With the caveat that everyone on the list was a great player, egregious examples include Ken Griffey Jr. (No. 13) ranked in front of, among others, Rickey Henderson (No. 23), and Derek Jeter (No.28) ranked in front of Joe Morgan (No. 37).

Griffey Jr. had 77.7 WAR; Henderson had 106.3 WAR.
Jeter had 73.0 WAR; Morgan had 98.8 WAR.

There are numerous other examples of WAR being under-weighed, and narrative — ditto a certain amount of recency bias — being over-weighed. Again, lists of this ilk are subjective. Even so, Henderson was clearly superior to Griffey Jr, and Morgan clearly superior to Jeter. Even if you’re inclined to quibble with WAR, those things seem fairly obvious.

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MLB and the MLBPA are currently at war, the former having implemented a lockout while the two sides negotiate a new CBA. With the scheduled start of spring training fast approaching, and progress seemingly at a standstill, fans are becoming increasingly impatient, if not frustrated and/or angry. With that in mind, I ran the following Twitter poll on Thursday afternoon:

With the caveat that bargaining is a two-way street, which side do you support in the CBA negotiations: MLB players, or MLB owners?

A total of 1,198 people weighed in, and the results spoke volumes. An overwhelming 94.5% voted MLB Players, while only 5.5% sided with MLB owners.

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Craig Albernaz had high praise for Logan Webb when I asked him about the 25-year-old Giants right-hander on Friday’s episode of FanGraphs Audio. That shouldn’t come as a surprise. Albernaz is San Francisco’s bullpen coach/catching coach, and Webb is coming off a season where he won 11 of 14 decisions and registered a 3.03 ERA and 2.94 FIP over 148-and-a-third innings.

“Logan Webb is nasty,” Albernaz said on the podcast. “I think that’s it; Webby is just nasty. Just like any young pitcher, there is a maturation process of what they are, what they could be, and what they’re trying to be. He took some great strides last year [with] maturity, really getting confidence, and also taking ownership of his own development and how to attack hitters. Credit to Brian Bannister and our pitching guys, J.P. [Martinez] and [Andrew Bailey], for really pushing Webby all through 2020, and last year, to get him where he needs to be.

“His fastball — how it moves, how it plays in the zone — is elite. His breaking ball, his sweeper, is nasty, and it comes out of the same tunnel. His changeup is filthy, just his sell on it. The horizontal movement… it’s everything you want. He checks a lot of boxes. But what really made the strides last year, in my opinion, was his relentless attack of the strike zone. That’s a message [for] all of our pitchers. We want them to attack the strike zone. But Webby was just relentless on throwing all of his weapons in the strike zone, making hitters make decisions on pitches… He really stepped up for us down the stretch.”

Friday’s conversation with Albernaz also addressed Bannister, Buster Posey, Farhan Zaidi, organizational approaches, and more. The episode also includes Eric Longenhagen and Ben Clemens catching up on a variety of topics, including pitchers who throw both four-seamers and sinkers. The pod is well worth a listen.

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A quiz:

Which player holds the record for most extra-base hits in a single season?

The answer can be found below.

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NEWS NOTES

Jeff Francis has been elected to the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame. A Vancouver native who pitched in the big leagues from 2004-2015, Francis spent the bulk of his career with the Colorado Rockies, who drafted him ninth overall in 2002 out of the University of British Columbia.

Triple-A schedules have been expanded to 150 games — up from 144 — beginning with the 2022 season. Minor-league teams last played as many as 150 games in 1964.

The Milwaukee Brewers announced that Josh Maurer will be joining their radio broadcast team and will be calling approximately 60 games. The voice of the Triple-A Pawtucket/Worcester Red Sox since 2014, Maurer will join Gary Cohen, Dave Flemming, Will Flemming, Andy Freed, Glenn Geffner, Aaron Goldsmith, Dave Jageler, Jeff Levering, Mike Monaco, and Don Orsillo as former PawSox broadcasters now in MLB booths. Additionally, Dan Hoard is now the radio voice of the Super Bowl-bound Cincinnati Bengals.

David Green, an outfielder for the St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants from 1981-1987 died earlier this week at age 61. Originally signed by the Brewers, the Managua native was sent to St. Louis in December 1980 as part of a seven-player deal that included Rollie Fingers, Sixto Lezcano, and Ted Simmons. Green is one of 15 Nicaraguan-born players in MLB history.

MLB has promoted five umpires to full-time status: Ryan Addition, Sean Barber, John Libka, Ben May, and Roberto Ortiz. The five — all of whom have worked 300 or more MLB games as call-ups — are replacing Fieldin Culbreth, Kerwin Danley, Gerry Davis, Brian Gorman, and Joe West, who have retired. Ortiz will be MLB’s first full-time Puerto Rican-born umpire.

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The answer to the quiz is Babe Ruth, who had 119 extra-base hits in 1921. The Sultan of Swat produced 44 doubles, 16 triples, and 59 home runs that year.

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Adrián González announced his retirement yesterday, officially closing out an MLB career that spanned the 2004-2018 seasons. A five-time All-Star first baseman, González logged a 133 wRC+ over a 10-year prime that saw him play for the San Diego Padres, Boston Red Sox, and Los Angeles Dodgers. His Red Sox tenure was in some ways confounding. González was targeted for criticism by certain members of the Boston media, this despite his slashing .321/.382/.513 with 42 home runs in his two years with the club. The subject of a May 2011 FanGraphs Q&A — González was an outstanding hitter.

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Could Jack Harshman have become the first true, two-way player in the modern era? Looking at both his big-league numbers and his minor-league career, one can’t help but wonder.

Harshman played for five MLB teams from 1952-1960, and during that time he made 217 pitching appearances, 155 of them starts, posting a 69-65 record and a 3.50 ERA. A southpaw, Harshman was at his best in 1956 when he went 15-11 with a 132 ERA+ for the Chicago White Sox. That same year, he hit six of his 21 big-league home runs.

Harshman didn’t go up to the plate looking to hit singles, nor did he often look to move runners over with a well-placed bunt. He had just 18 sacrifices over his eight seasons, and 27.6% of his 76 career hits left the yard. Suffice to say, Hartman took healthy hacks.

His minor-league numbers were, in modern vernacular, sick. Harshman toed the rubber down on the farm, but he was primarily a slugging first baseman. In 1949, Harshman homered 40 times with the American Association’s Minneapolis Millers, and two years later he bashed 47 more with the Southern Association’s Nashville Volunteers. Enamored with his arm, the New York Giants converted him to a pitcher in 1952.

Harshman’s 1953 season, which he spent with the Volunteers, was his last in the minors. It was also his most eye-opening in terms of both-sides-of-the-ball production. On the mound, Harshman went 23-7 with a 3.27 ERA over 259 innings. At the plate, he slashed .315/.446/.631 with 12 home runs in 184 plate appearances.

Could Harshman have succeeded as both a pitcher and a position player in the big leagues? Possibly not, but he might have deserved an opportunity to try.

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Dave Foutz was a two-way player for the St. Louis Browns and the Brooklyn Grooms from 1884-1896. Nicknamed “Scissors,” the Carroll County, Maryland native played 596 games at first base, 320 in the outfield, and made 251 pitching appearances. As a hitter, Foutz finished his career with a 101 wRC+. As a pitcher, he augmented a 124 ERA+ with a 147-66 won-loss record. Moreover, Foutz’s .690 winning percentage is tied with Whitey Ford for third-highest in MLB history among pitchers with at least 100 wins. Only Al Spalding (.795% from 1871-1877) and Spud Chandler (.717% from 1937-1947) were credited with wins at a higher rate.

Speaking of Spud, the erstwhile New York Yankees hurler had a truly remarkable career. It was relatively brief — nine full seasons, plus five games split between 1944-1945 during WWII — but what he did during that time stands out like a sore thumb. Along with his W-L record (yes, the recipe requires a large grain of salt) Chandler logged a 132 ERA+, won an MVP award, and was on six World Series-winning teams. In 1943, the right-hander from Commerce, Georgia allowed one earned run while tossing a pair of complete-game victories in the Fall Classic.

Even more remarkable is that Chandler didn’t make his MLB debut until he was four months short of his 30th birthday. He threw his final pitch at age 40 in the 1947 World Series. The last batter he faced was Jackie Robinson.

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LINKS YOU’LL LIKE

Jim Trdinich is stepping down from his position as director of baseball communications for the Pittsburgh Pirates and will become the team’s first-ever historian. Jason Mackey has the story at The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

Baltimore Orioles outfielder Cedric Mullins had his breakout season while battling Crohn’s disease. Steve Melewski has the story at MASN Sports.

At The Athletic (subscription required), Dan Hayes and Michael Russo teamed up to tell us about Justin Morneau’s hockey Field Of Dreams.

Writing for Bally Sports, Gordon Edes expressed how helping minor leaguers is still a major problem in baseball.

Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper wrote about how NFL and NBA salaries have outstripped MLB salaries in recent years.

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RANDOM FACTS AND STATS

In 1987, Barry Bonds had 611 plate appearances and walked 54 times. In 2004, Bonds had 617 plate appearances and walked 232 times.

Sandy Koufax had 11 shutouts in 1963. He fanned 306 batters that year.
John Tudor had 10 shutouts in 1985. He fanned 169 batters that year.

Ted Williams hit five home runs in games that ended 1-0. That’s a record.

Steve Gerkin went 0-12 with a 3.62 ERA for the Philadelphia A’s in 1945. It was the right-hander’s only big-league season.

John Coleman went 12-48 with a 4.87 ERA for the Philadelphia Quakers in 1883. The National League club finished the season 46 games in arrears of the Boston Beaneaters, with a record of 18-81-1.

Randy Hundley caught 160 games for the Chicago Cubs in 1968. He started 156 of those games.

The Detroit Tigers signed Hall of Fame catcher Ivan Rodriguez to a free agent contract on today’s date in 2004.

Players born on today’s date include Don Fisher, whose two big-league appearances came with the New York Giants in 1945. Fisher’s first outing was a five-inning relief effort in which he allowed four runs. His second was a 13-inning complete game shutout.

Babe Ruth (714) has the most home runs among players born on today’s date. Ruth also has the most stolen bases (123) and pitcher wins (94) among players born on today’s date.

Also born on today’s date was Bill Koski, whose career comprised 13 games and 27 innings for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 1951. The right-hander’s first professional experience came a year earlier when he toed the rubber for the Mayfield Clothiers in the Kentucky-Illinois-Tennessee League, a Class D circuit that was commonly referred to as the Kitty League.

When Buster Posey announced his retirement in early November, my first thought was something along the lines of “Fantastic career; he’ll be getting my vote when he becomes Hall of Fame eligible in five years.” Looking back, that initial reaction actually undersold just how dominant Posey was over his 12-year career.

A few days ago, I shared the following on social media:

Best catchers in baseball history: 1. Mickey Cochrane, 2. Johnny Bench, 3. Josh Gibson, 4. Yogi Berra, 5. Gary Carter, 6. Ivan Rodriguez.

Your opinion of that ranking aside, a follower proceeded to ask for my opinion of Posey. That prompted me to compare the 34-year-old’s career to that of Cochrane, who likewise was done at a relatively-early age. Cochrane played his last game shortly after his 34th birthday, an errant Bump Hadley pitch — this in the days before hitters wore helmets — having fractured his skull and rendered him unconscious for 10 days. Coincidentally or not, Cochrane had taken Hadley deep in his previous at bat.

Cochrane played from 1925-1937 — a high-offense era — and finished his career with an eye-popping .320/.419/.478 slash line. Perusing our WAR leaderboard for that baker’s-dozen stretch, you’ll find Cochrane sandwiched between Rogers Hornsby and Tony Lazzeri. In 1947, Cochrane became the first catcher voted into the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA.

Cochrane played in 1,482 games. Posey played in 1,371 games. How do they otherwise compare? Read the rest of this entry »

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Toronto Blue Jays.

Batters

If you start with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, it’s hard for your offense to do too poorly without major malpractice. And no malpractice is present here, as George Springer projects to (hopefully) have a healthier season while the Jays’ confusing, Cerberus-like catching situation should be adequate whatever configuration they go with. Teoscar Hernández projects to regress a bit BABIP-wise, but his power still makes him a comfortable plug-and-play cleanup hitter, though I’d personally prefer that he hit third since that’s the lineup spot that leads off the fewest innings. ZiPS doesn’t see Cavan Biggio being as much of a chip off the old block as Bichette or Guerrero, but it does expect a great deal of improvement from his sub-replacement 2021 season.

There are still places where the Jays can make improvements. Santiago Espinal was a nice little surprise and hit very well in the majors in 2021, but the projections are unimpressed with a minor league record that screams complementary talent. Kevin Smith projects to hit for power but with a low BA/OBP, and he’ll probably struggle to be valuable at third unless he turns out to be extremely adept at playing the hot corner. Another spare outfielder would also be helpful; ZiPS isn’t crazy about Randal Grichuk as the main fallback option. Read the rest of this entry »

In many respects, Josh Palacios has already exceeded expectations. A 2016 fourth round pick who has remained on the periphery of most top prospect lists, the 26-year-old outfielder debuted with the Toronto Blue Jays last April. Moreover, he went 4-for-4 with a walk in his second game. While the opportunity proved fleeting — he was back in the minors by month’s end — the Brooklyn born-and-raised nephew of former Kansas City Royals catcher Rey Palacios had reached the pinnacle of his profession. Counting September’s second cup of coffee, the personable youngster finished the campaign with seven hits in 35 at-bats.

An honorable mention on our just released Blue Jays Top Prospects list, Palacios recently took the time to discuss his path to the big leagues, his still-lofty goals, and a baseball role model whose memory inspires his own efforts to be an asset to his community.

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David Laurila: Let’s start with you being part of a baseball family. Your brother [Richie Palacios] is in the Guardians system, your uncle played in the big leagues, and I believe that your father (Richard Palacios) played in the minors?

Josh Palacios: “Yes. My uncle and my dad played in the Tigers system together, and then my uncle got traded to the Royals; that’s who he made his major league debut with. My father only played for a short period of time.”

Laurila: You played at a junior college, then at Auburn, before getting drafted by the Blue Jays. Your bio shows that your major was Public Administration, but for all intents and purposes, were you majoring in baseball? Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Toronto Blue Jays. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as our own observations. This is the second year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the numbered prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

Graham Spraker will be available when this year’s lockout-postponed Rule 5 draft is eventually held. The 26-year-old right-hander wasn’t added to the Toronto Blue Jays 40-man roster prior to last month’s deadline. While this was not exactly a surprise — the former 31st-round draft pick out of a DII school has never graced our prospect rankings — Spraker is nonetheless coming off an eye-opening season. In 31 relief outings, all but one of them at Double-A New Hampshire, the erstwhile Quincy University Hawk logged a 2.62 ERA and fanned 65 batters in 46-and-two-thirds innings.

Spraker’s breakout culminated in an award-winning stint in the Arizona Fall League. Pitching for the Mesa Solar Sox, the righty threw 11-and-a-third scoreless innings, allowing just four hits and a pair of walks, with 17 strikeouts. He was named the AFL’s Reliever of the Year at the conclusion of the campaign.

All that aside, just who is Graham Spraker?

“I am who I am,” the righty responded when asked about his pitching M.O. “I’ve changed a lot every year. I’m a pretty adaptable player — that’s why I’ve had success — but I feel that I’ve found a good blueprint now. It’s something I’m going to try to stick to for the rest of my career.” Read the rest of this entry »