Archive for Braves

ZiPS Stretch Run Updates for 9/29

A few days ago, I wrote about projections and the stretch run, using ZiPS to project each individual game and estimate its relative importance for the final standings. With just a few games remaining, most have the potential to drastically swing the disposition of the race. For example, the Mariners saw their playoff probability quintuple with last night’s win over the A’s! Let’s break down the latest and greatest.

AL Wild Card

This one is still very wide open, with the main difference from 48 hours ago being that the Mariners have pushed the A’s to the brink of elimination. Oakland can still make the playoffs, but the path is narrow and would require Oakland to win three or four games while Toronto, Boston, and Seattle mostly lose, and then perhaps survive a tiebreaker. Oakland can no longer catch the Yankees, so it’s in the A’s interest for the Yankees to finish a sweep of the Jays: Read the rest of this entry »


One Last Week For All the Marbles: ZiPS Projects the Postseason Home Stretch (9/28 Update)

9/28 Late Morning Update

ZiPS Playoff Drive Projections – AL Wild Cards
Day Home Team Starter Road Team Road Starter Home Team Wins Road Team Wins
9/28 Orioles Bruce Zimmermann Red Sox Chris Sale 37.5% 62.5%
9/28 Blue Jays Hyun Jin Ryu Yankees Jameson Taillon 56.1% 43.9%
9/28 Mariners Tyler Anderson Athletics Chris Bassitt 41.1% 58.9%
9/29 Orioles Zac Lowther Red Sox Nathan Eovaldi 31.6% 68.4%
9/29 Blue Jays José Berríos Yankees Gerrit Cole 51.9% 48.1%
9/29 Mariners Logan Gilbert Athletics Frankie Montas 45.0% 55.0%
9/30 Orioles Alexander Wells Red Sox Nick Pivetta 31.4% 68.6%
9/30 Blue Jays Robbie Ray Yankees Corey Kluber 56.9% 43.1%
10/1 Blue Jays Alek Manoah Orioles Chris Ellis 74.5% 25.5%
10/1 Nationals Erick Fedde Red Sox Eduardo Rodriguez 47.3% 52.7%
10/1 Yankees Nestor Cortés Jr. Rays Luis Patino 54.3% 45.7%
10/1 Mariners Marco Gonzales Angels Jose Suarez 46.2% 53.8%
10/1 Astros Zack Greinke Athletics Sean Manaea 57.0% 43.0%
10/2 Blue Jays Steven Matz Orioles John Means 62.7% 37.3%
10/2 Nationals Josh Rogers Red Sox Tanner Houck 38.8% 61.2%
10/2 Yankees Jordan Montgomery Rays Shane McClanahan 53.7% 46.3%
10/2 Mariners Chris Flexen Angels Jhonathan Diaz 50.7% 49.3%
10/2 Astros Framber Valdez Athletics Paul Blackburn 64.7% 35.3%
10/3 Blue Jays Hyun Jin Ryu Orioles Bruce Zimmermann 66.0% 34.0%
10/3 Nationals Josiah Gray Red Sox Chris Sale 41.6% 58.4%
10/3 Yankees Jameson Taillon Rays Shane Baz 45.3% 54.7%
10/3 Mariners Tyler Anderson Angels Shohei Ohtani 38.4% 61.6%
10/3 Astros Jake Odorizzi Athletics Cole Irvin 63.5% 36.5%

 

ZiPS Playoff Drive Projections – AL Wild Card Standings
Team Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Playoffs
Boston 37.2% 42.1% 79.3%
New York 46.0% 29.4% 75.3%
Toronto 16.0% 24.1% 40.2%
Seattle 0.8% 4.3% 5.2%
Oakland 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%

`

ZiPS Playoff Drive Projections – Changes in Playoff Projections
Scenario BOS NYA TOR SEA OAK
Boston Beats Washington on Friday 9.3% -2.8% -5.0% -1.4% 0.0%
Boston Beats Washington on Sunday 8.3% -2.6% -4.3% -1.3% -0.1%
Boston Beats Washington on Saturday 7.6% -2.4% -3.9% -1.3% 0.0%
Boston Beats Baltimore on Tuesday 7.6% -2.3% -3.9% -1.4% 0.0%
Baltimore Beats Toronto on Friday 7.1% 7.0% -15.9% 1.8% 0.0%
Boston Beats Baltimore on Thursday 6.8% -2.0% -3.6% -1.1% -0.1%
Baltimore Beats Toronto on Sunday 6.7% 6.4% -14.6% 1.5% 0.0%
Boston Beats Baltimore on Wednesday 6.6% -2.1% -3.4% -1.1% 0.0%
Baltimore Beats Toronto on Saturday 6.4% 6.2% -14.2% 1.6% 0.0%
New York Beats Toronto on Tuesday 3.5% 15.3% -19.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Tampa Bay Beats New York on Friday 3.5% -9.6% 5.0% 1.1% 0.0%
Tampa Bay Beats New York on Saturday 3.4% -9.6% 5.0% 1.2% 0.0%
New York Beats Toronto on Thursday 3.2% 15.3% -18.8% 0.3% 0.0%
New York Beats Toronto on Wednesday 2.9% 14.6% -17.9% 0.3% 0.0%
Tampa Bay Beats New York on Sunday 2.8% -7.6% 4.0% 0.8% 0.0%
Los Angeles Beats Seattle on Saturday 1.6% 0.9% 1.1% -3.6% 0.0%
Los Angeles Beats Seattle on Sunday 1.5% 0.8% 1.1% -3.3% 0.0%
Los Angeles Beats Seattle on Friday 1.5% 0.8% 1.2% -3.5% 0.0%
Oakland Beats Seattle on Wednesday 1.3% 0.8% 1.1% -3.3% 0.1%
Oakland Beats Seattle on Tuesday 1.2% 0.9% 1.0% -3.2% 0.1%
Houston Beats Oakland on Friday 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1%
Houston Beats Oakland on Saturday 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1%
Houston Beats Oakland on Sunday 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakland Beats Houston on Friday 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Oakland Beats Houston on Saturday 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Oakland Beats Houston on Sunday -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Seattle Beats Los Angeles on Saturday -1.7% -0.9% -0.9% 3.5% 0.0%
Seattle Beats Oakland on Wednesday -1.9% -1.2% -1.3% 4.4% 0.0%
Seattle Beats Los Angeles on Friday -2.0% -1.0% -1.1% 4.1% 0.0%
Toronto Beats New York on Tuesday -2.2% -11.6% 14.0% -0.2% 0.0%
Seattle Beats Oakland on Tuesday -2.2% -1.2% -1.5% 4.9% -0.1%
Toronto Beats New York on Thursday -2.3% -11.7% 14.1% -0.2% 0.0%
Toronto Beats Baltimore on Friday -2.4% -2.4% 5.3% -0.5% 0.0%
Seatle Beats Los Angeles on Sunday -2.4% -1.5% -1.6% 5.5% 0.0%
Toronto Beats New York on Wednesday -2.6% -13.1% 16.1% -0.3% 0.0%
New York Beats Tampa Bay on Saturday -2.6% 8.4% -4.6% -1.1% 0.0%
New York Beats Tampa Bay on Friday -2.8% 8.6% -4.8% -1.0% 0.0%
New York Beats Tampa Bay on Sunday -3.1% 9.2% -5.0% -1.0% 0.0%
Toronto Beats Baltimore on Sunday -3.4% -3.1% 7.3% -0.8% 0.0%
Toronto Beats Baltimore on Saturday -3.5% -3.6% 8.1% -1.0% 0.0%
Washington Beats Boston on Friday -10.4% 3.1% 5.4% 1.9% 0.0%
Washington Beats Boston on Sunday -11.6% 3.4% 6.0% 2.1% 0.1%
Washington Beats Boston on Saturday -12.5% 3.6% 6.5% 2.3% 0.1%
Baltimore Beats Boston On Tuesday -12.8% 3.8% 6.6% 2.5% 0.0%
Baltimore Beats Boston on Thursday -14.6% 4.3% 7.5% 2.7% 0.1%
Baltimore Beats Boston on Wednesday -14.8% 4.3% 7.6% 2.9% 0.0%

 

ZiPS Playoff Drive Projections – Game Leverage
Game Leverage
Toronto vs. New York on Wednesday 0.34
Toronto vs. New York on Tuesday 0.33
Toronto vs. New York on Thursday 0.33
Toronto vs. Baltimore on Saturday 0.22
Toronto vs. Baltimore on Sunday 0.22
Baltimore vs. Boston on Wednesday 0.21
Baltimore vs. Boston on Thursday 0.21
Toronto vs. Baltimore on Friday 0.21
Baltimore vs. Boston On Tuesday 0.20
Washington vs. Boston on Saturday 0.20
Washington vs. Boston on Sunday 0.20
Washington vs. Boston on Friday 0.20
New York vs. Tampa Bay on Friday 0.18
New York vs. Tampa Bay on Saturday 0.18
New York vs. Tampa Bay on Sunday 0.17
Seatle vs. Los Angeles on Sunday 0.09
Seattle vs. Oakland on Tuesday 0.08
Seattle vs. Oakland on Wednesday 0.08
Seattle vs. Los Angeles on Friday 0.08
Seattle vs. Los Angeles on Saturday 0.07
Houston vs. Oakland on Saturday 0.00
Houston vs. Oakland on Sunday 0.00
Houston vs. Oakland on Friday 0.00

The original data and methodology are below.
==
We’ve reached the final week of the 2021 regular season, and for fans of high-intensity, stretch-drive baseball — a group I think we can refer to as “everyone” — there’s still quite a lot to play for. Only five of the 10 playoff spots are claimed, with two of those five teams in a battle for a division title. And since there are just a handful of games left to play, we can move the ZiPS projections from the macro to the micro. In April, it’s always hard to project specific pitcher matchups, but with a week left to go in the season, it’s a more reasonable task of extrapolation. As a result, that allows me to adapt the ZiPS model into a game-by-game projection of the final week of the season for the relevant teams.

I’ve focused on three of the playoff spots, the two AL wild cards, and the NL East, along with the division versus wild card battle in the NL West. The Astros can still technically lose the division to the Mariners (one-in-about-1,800) or the Athletics (one-in-about-2,150), and the Cardinals could still have an epic collapse in which they lose six, the Reds win six, and they lose the tiebreaker (one-in-about-3,300). These could also become mathematical impossibilities quickly; if they become plausible rather than proverbial lottery tickets, I’ll update with the data.

Let’s start with the easy races.

NL East

The Braves enter the final week with a 2 1/2-game lead in the division but three games remaining against the Phillies. Their schedules are similar in strength, with Atlanta getting home games and Philadelphia on the road, something that’s largely canceled out by the former getting the slightly harder opponent (the Mets versus the Marlins). The edge comes from the cushion.

ZiPS Playoff Drive Projections – NL East
Day Home Team Starter Road Team Road Starter Home Team Wins Road Team Wins
9/28 Braves Charlie Morton Phillies Zack Wheeler 55.3% 44.7%
9/29 Braves Max Fried Phillies Aaron Nola 52.9% 47.1%
9/30 Braves Ian Anderson Phillies Kyle Gibson 57.4% 42.6%
10/1 Braves Huascar Ynoa Mets Carlos Carrasco 56.4% 43.6%
10/1 Marlins Sandy Alcantara Phillies Ranger Suárez 47.9% 52.1%
10/2 Braves Jesse Chavez Mets Trevor Williams 58.7% 41.3%
10/2 Marlins Jesús Luzardo Phillies Hans Crouse 50.1% 49.9%
10/3 Braves Charlie Morton Mets Marcus Stroman 62.0% 38.0%
10/3 Marlins Trevor Rogers Phillies Zack Wheeler 42.3% 57.7%
10/4 Braves Max Fried Rockies Kyle Freeland 54.6% 45.4%
10/5 Phillies Aaron Nola Braves Ian Anderson 51.7% 48.3%

With the edge in the standings, ZiPS projects just over a four-in-five chance that the Braves will not have to play the Rockies in a makeup game on Monday. Overall, the Braves win the division 87.7% of the time without the makeup game, and the Phillies stick the Braves in at least a 1 1/2-game hole 1.0% of the time.

Read the rest of this entry »


Daily Prospect Notes: 9/20/21

These are notes on prospects from Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments of the Daily Prospect Notes here.

Noah Campbell, UTIL, Milwaukee Brewers
Level & Affiliate: Low-A Carolina Age: 22 Org Rank: NR FV: 30
Line:
0-for-4, BB, 1 IP, SV, played all nine positions

Notes
Campbell has played mostly 1B/3B/LF this year but also has had a handful of games at either middle infield spot; yesterday was the fourth time this season he has pitched but his first action in center field. A likely org guy more than a prospect, Campbell is wrapping up a nice first pro season, slashing .270/.388/.387 with 20 steals and one big, rare feather in his cap because of yesterday’s game.

JP Sears, LHP, New York Yankees
Level & Affiliate: Double-A Somerset Age: 25 Org Rank: NR FV: 35
Line:
6 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 1 R, 7 K

Notes
Sears was drafted by Seattle in 2017 and traded to New York later that year as part of the package (with Juan Then) for Nick Rumbelow. He began the year as a swingman, pitching multiple innings out of the Double-A bullpen and making an occasional spot start. By July, Sears grabbed hold of a rotation spot and held it amid a promotion to Triple-A, where he has a 3.05 ERA and a 51-to-9 K-to-BB ratio in 41 innings. Sears is throwing a little harder this season, averaging just a shade over 93 mph on his fastball after sitting 90-92 and topping out at 93 in 2019. He works with flat fastball angle at the top of the zone, his slider has utility as a backfoot offering to righties, and Sears’ changeup is passable. He’s a perfectly fine spot starter candidate, the sort the Yankees rarely rely on but often find a trade outlet for. Read the rest of this entry »


Freddie Might Become a Free Man

In one of the oddest twists of the season, the Atlanta Braves have seen their playoff odds skyrocket after losing one of the league’s best players, Ronald Acuña Jr., to a torn ACL that prematurely ended his 2021 season. Now up to 81.9% odds of making the postseason from a low of a 7% chance — the 2019 Nationals never dipped under 22% in our projections — the Braves seem much more likely to be successful than not. And regardless of whether the season ends on a positive note, all of Atlanta’s key contributors are under team control in 2022 with one exception. But that exception is quite notable: 2020 National League MVP Freddie Freeman.

The general assumption around baseball — one that I also hold — has been that Freeman will of course be back with the Braves in 2022. After 12 seasons in Atlanta, during which Freeman was quite purposefully kept as the face of the team even while the Braves were aggressively rebuilding several years ago, seeing him in another uniform would just seem odd, almost on par with seeing Derek Jeter in Dodger Blue or Cal Ripken Jr. in green and gold. But the fates don’t care about looking bizarre, and the fact remains is that we’re entering mid-September, and player and team have yet come to an agreement on a contract extension. Jon Heyman reported on Thursday that there was still a gap between Freeman and the Braves:

Read the rest of this entry »


Atlanta Flexes Its Financial Muscles With Extensions

When the Braves signed Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ozzie Albies to phenomenally team-friendly contracts before the 2019 season, two distinct possibilities loomed. First, the team could bank the money they saved and put out a good team at a discounted price. Second, they could reinvest those savings and attempt to put together a great team. Which they chose would say a lot about how the team planned on operating long-term.

The question is no longer open. The Braves have overcome a season-ending injury to Acuña to surge to the top of the NL East, and while the Phillies and Mets continue to nip at their heals, they’re well on their way to a fourth straight division title. They’ve done so thanks to some new young contributors — Austin Riley and Ian Anderson have come into their own this year. They’ve made some savvy signings and trades — Charlie Morton has been their best pitcher this year, and Jorge Soler has been excellent since joining the team.

Now, the Braves are making moves to prolong their stay atop the division. In late August, they signed Travis d’Arnaud to a two-year extension. They followed that up by signing Morton to a one-year deal (both contracts have team options tacked on). Let’s take a look at both of those deals, as well as how they affect the team’s outlook for next year and beyond.

Signing d’Arnaud to an extension — two years and $16 million with a team option for a third year — was hardly an obvious move for the team. He missed the majority of the season after tearing a ligament in his thumb in May. He’s hit well since his return, but even so, his seasonal line works out to an 84 wRC+. Combine that with solid receiving, and the total package works out to a roughly average catcher.

What made the Braves so eager to lock d’Arnaud up? His replacements fell well short of that average catcher bar. On the year, Atlanta’s catcher position has produced -1.4 WAR, the worst mark in the majors. It’s not an individual problem; a huge array of catchers have combined to weigh the position down:

Atlanta’s Catching Futility
Player PA wRC+ Def WAR
Travis d’Arnaud 148 84 4.2 0.5
Jonathan Lucroy 9 130 -0.1 0.1
Jeff Mathis 9 -100 0.3 -0.2
Alex Jackson 28 -20 0.2 -0.3
William Contreras 166 72 -3.0 -0.4
Kevan Smith 101 17 2.6 -0.5
Stephen Vogt 85 2 1.9 -0.5

Relative to that mess, d’Arnaud is a huge improvement. That’s not to say that Contreras won’t figure it out, or that Vogt isn’t a capable backup. But for a team with an embarrassment of riches at most positions, giving away so much value at catcher doesn’t make sense. It gets worse: the list of free agent catchers this offseason is nasty, brutish, and short. Yan Gomes and Martín Maldonado are the headliners, and it gets worse from there. Miss signing your target, and you might be in for a long offseason. Read the rest of this entry »


Max Fried Is Leading the Resurgent Braves

The Braves have been a revelation over the last month. Jay Jaffe detailed last week how Atlanta turned its season around after the trade deadline, adding 67.4 points to its division odds and 5.3 points to its World Series odds in roughly three weeks. And all of that was in spite of losing Ronald Acuña Jr., for the season to a torn ACL. The Braves have gotten solid contributions across the board from their new-look outfield of Joc Pederson, Adam Duvall, and Jorge Soler, all acquired around or at the deadline. Of the rest of the core, only Ozzie Albies has performed worse post-July 30; the trio of Freddie Freeman, Dansby Swanson, and Austin Riley have been among the most productive players in the NL in that same span.

Aggression in adding outfielders at the deadline in conjunction with a high level of play from star hitters has helped Atlanta surge to the top of the standings. The pitching has held up its end of the bargain as well, though, ranking as a top-10 unit since the trade deadline, improving its ERA by just over half a run and posting the sixth-best strikeout and walk rates during that timeframe.

Much of this success can be attributed to Max Fried. Since the deadline, he ranks third in WAR among qualified pitchers, buoyed by a minuscule walk rate (1.6%, best in the majors) and a massive ground-ball rate (57.5%, fifth in the majors). That’s a recipe for elite performance even with a middling strikeout rate. It’s also a more exaggerated version of the profile he has shown since he became a full-time starter for the Braves two seasons ago; from 2019 to ’20, he ran a 53.5% ground-ball rate, a 24.1% strikeout rate, and a mere 7.1% walk rate.

Fried’s season has not always been this smooth. After his first three starts, capped off by an eight-run, four-inning outing on April 13, his ERA sat at a grizzly 11.45. Worse yet, in that last game, he strained his hamstring running the bases, was placed on the injured list, and did not return until May 5 against the Nationals, allowing one run over five innings with six strikeouts and one walk. Besides missing a turn in the rotation due to a blister on his left index finger back in late June, he has effectively put his April woes behind him and pitched more like the version of himself we saw in the prior two seasons, with a 2.77 ERA and 23.9% strikeout rate.

Read the rest of this entry »


How the Braves Flipped the NL East Race

You could have been forgiven for giving up the Braves for dead in the water last month. Heading into the July 30 trade deadline, they were 51–52, four games behind the NL East-leading Mets and eight back in the Wild Card race, with four teams between them and the second-slotted Padres. Three weeks earlier, they’d lost their best player, Ronald Acuña Jr., to a season-ending torn ACL, plus they were down last year’s NL home run and RBI leader (Marcell Ozuna), their starting catcher (Travis d’Arnaud), and three key members of their rotation (Ian Anderson, Huascar Ynoa, and Mike Soroka). Yet nearly four weeks later, the division race has been upended, and Atlanta is squarely in the drivers’ seat. What happened?

The short version is that the Braves were aggressive in giving their outfield a much-needed makeover at the deadline and entered Tuesday with an NL-best 17–5 record since then, albeit largely against a soft schedule. Even after their nine-game winning streak came to an end against the Yankees — themselves riding a nine-game winning streak at the time, making for a first-in-120-years matchup — to knock them back to 17–6, a half-game behind the Dodgers, they’ve left the Mets in the dust, as New York has run into buzzsaw after buzzsaw. Here’s the full picture of how the NL East standings and Playoff Odds have changed:

NL East Before and After July 30 Trade Deadline
Split W L PCT GB Div% WC% Playoff% WS Win%
Braves
Pre-Deadline 51 52 .495 4 8.4% 1.4% 9.8% 0.4%
Now 68 58 .540 0 75.8% 1.7% 77.5% 5.7%
Change 17 6 .045 -4 +67.4% +0.3% +67.7% +5.3%
Phillies
Pre-Deadline 51 51 .500 3.5 17.8% 2.1% 19.9% 1.1%
Now 63 62 .504 4.5 19.7% 3.3% 23.0% 1.1%
Change 12 11 .004 1 +1.9% +1.2% +3.1% 0.0%
Mets
Pre-Deadline 54 47 .535 0 73.6% 1.4% 75.1% 8.3%
Now 61 64 .488 6.5 4.5% 0.6% 5.2% 0.3%
Change 7 17 -.047 6.5 -69.1% -0.8% -69.9% -8.0%

For those who prefer a picture, here you go (this one shows only the division-winning odds):

For the Braves, this run has come the old-fashioned way, as they’ve held their own against the other strong teams and steamrolled the weak ones. They’ve played series against just four teams with a .500 or better record: the Brewers (against whom they lost two of three), Cardinals (whom they swept), Reds (against whom they won two of three), and Yankees (who swept a two-game series) That’s a 6–5 mark against four teams with a weighted winning percentage of .560. Meanwhile, they’ve gone a combined 11–1 against the Nationals (5–1), Marlins (3–0), and Orioles (3–0), teams with a weighted .395 winning percentage. At the same time, the Mets went 3–14 against the Reds (1–2), Phillies (0–3), Dodgers (1–6), and Giants (1-3), four teams with a weighted winning percentage of .592, and 4–3 against the Marlins (1–3) and Nationals (3–0), a pair with a combined winning percentage of .417.

Read the rest of this entry »


A Journey Through the History of MLB Mascots

It all began with Mr. Met.

The orb-headed, future enemy of Noah Syndergaard, was the first modern mascot of a major league team to appear live in-game, rather than merely as a drawing or on printed marketing materials. Other teams, like the Brooklyn Dodgers, had employed entertainers who became unofficial mascots for their clubs, but Mr. Met represents the first case of an intentionally designed character becoming an in-person mascot. Mr. Met first debuted in print in 1963; he was heavily featured in the team’s preseason marketing and was portrayed on scorecards and in programs throughout the year. In 1964, he made his first live appearance. He remained a consistent part of the team’s iconography until 1979, when he was removed from use; the character remained on the bench until 1994.

What Mr. Met represented was a modern-era shift for baseball. Fans had traditionally been a more raucous crowd that consisted primarily of adults, and teams at the time were making an effort to appeal more to families. The presence of large, cartoonish characters made ballparks feel like a more welcoming environment for those attending with small children. Mr. Met, who was quickly joined by Mrs. Met, ushered in a new experience, and over the following decades, almost every major league team followed suit, adding their own mascots to entertain game-day fans.

We can give Mr. Met credit for being the first official live mascot of a major league team, but another character set the tone for some of the most popular mascots to follow: the San Diego Chicken. The Chicken is an interesting example of a team representative because the San Diego Padres did not set out to find or create an entertainer for their games. The Chicken, played by Ted Giannoulas, originally did events for KGB-FM Radio. Upon having some success distributing Easter eggs to children, Giannoulas pitched his services to the Padres. At the time, he just wanted a way to get into games for free, but after his 1977 debut, he went on to portray the character for almost 50 years, albeit with a few breaks over the decades. For instance, in 1979, he was fired from the radio station and had to fight for the right to wear the chicken suit, and there were a few other planned absences as well. But those gaps aside, the Chicken was quite popular, even making its way to television, where, alongside Johnny Bench and Tommy Lasorda, it served as the co-host of a popular children’s series called “The Baseball Bunch,” a program aimed at introducing baseball and its players to a younger audience.

The Chicken popularized a certain type of mascot. You can see aspects of it in almost all of the other mascots in the majors. Its big, child-friendly, stuffed animal look became the template from which the next generation of mascots were drawn. That aesthetic is probably best exhibited in the Phillie Phanatic, who debuted in 1978 and is likely the best-known and most recognizable mascot currently in the game.

There’s a simple reason these more child-friendly designs gained popularity — they worked. Some teams had made much earlier attempts at mascots, but they were frankly more horrifying than they were appealing, proving to be disquieting to both adults and children. The Chicago Cubs made efforts as far back as 1908, when they introduced a nameless bear mascot that might remind modern observers more of the finale of Midsommar than a rollicking good time at the ballpark. Unlike Mr. Met, the bear wasn’t a mascot in the traditional sense. The team had no intention of him appearing for the entire season. Indeed, he actually only came to amuse the crowd for a single game. (The polar bear costume was on loan from a local production of “The Top o’ th’ World.”)

The Cubs did win the World Series the season that the terror bear made an appearance, so perhaps they should have kept it around a bit longer. Instead, the team switched to live bear cubs for a time, including the best-known of the group, a cub named Joa (named for Cubs co-owner J. Ogden Armour). Again, we can’t consider these mascots in the same way we think of them now, as they didn’t perform and generally caused more harm than good. Ultimately, though, it wasn’t the moral failing of keeping a live animal on display that forced the Cubs to change their policy on the actual cubs, but rather that the pint-sized bears kept biting people, including the players. Sadly, the cubs who were not sold to the Lincoln Park Zoo met slightly grimmer ends. (The team’s current mascot, Clark, canonically escaped the zoo after hearing enthusiastic hollering coming from Wrigley Field and deciding he desperately needed to see a game in person. Mascot biographies are a wild ride.)

Between the introduction of Mr. Met in the 1960s and the mid-80s establishment of “The Baseball Bunch,” almost every major league club got a mascot of its own. While official mascots have changed somewhat over the decades, they’re still a mainstay for most teams. At present, there are only three major league teams with no official mascot: the Los Angeles Angels, the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the New York Yankees. Given that the two Los Angeles-based teams are so close to Disneyland, it’s somewhat surprising that they haven’t embraced a costume-clad ambassador of their own, but they remain firmly mascotless. The Angels do have a rally monkey, but it’s not an official mascot as much as a part of the club’s iconography. Before they moved to Los Angeles, the Dodgers briefly had a mascot named Weary Willie, who we’ll return to a bit later. The Yankees, however, might have one of the best examples of a failed mascot of any major league team.

In 1979, without any advanced warning to fans or even a proper introduction, the Yankees unveiled Dandy. Unlike the Cubs’ first crack at a mascot, Dandy was actually pretty adorable. He had more in common with the round-bodied characters we see now, with a big belly and fur that resembled the iconic Yankee pinstripes. Dandy sported a long, red handlebar mustache, and carried a comically oversized bat. But the mascot’s initial welcome was anything but warm. According to Rick Ford, who wore the Dandy costume that first day, “Nobody had any idea what I was or what I was doing there. They just looked at me like, ‘What the hell is this thing?’”

Dandy had the right pedigree to be a beloved team icon. He was created by Bonnie Erickson and Wayde Harrison, the same masterminds behind the incredibly popular Phanatic, and had the same kind of goofy charm to his appearance. But he never resonated with Yankees fans. No one knew the character’s name and he was never given an official welcome. Erickson later confessed that the duo hadn’t really been given much direction in terms of what the Yankees actually wanted out of a mascot. “We knew they were interested in increasing family attendance, and they thought this was the way to do it. They left the design up to me.” In addition to not giving Erickson and Harrison much guidance in the design process, the Yankees didn’t offer much help to Ford in terms of how to be a mascot. “Nobody at the Yankees gave me any direction. I was just making it up as I went along,” he admitted.

Dandy’s poor conception and botched introduction might have spelled doom on their own, but it was likely the untimely death of Thurman Munson later in 1979 that ultimately brought an end to the mascot. While Erickson was not familiar with the Yankees catcher, there’s no way to dispute that Dandy, with his distinctive mustache, bore a striking resemblance to the beloved player. Following Munson’s passing, Dandy became an even more unwelcome presence. While Ford continued to don the costume for another two seasons, the character was quietly retired by the team by 1981. The Yankees have not attempted a mascot since, and there are few in the current front office who will acknowledge they ever had one.

The Yankees aren’t the only team that would like to bury the memory of a mascot. Earlier, I mentioned Brooklyn Dodgers mascot Weary Willie, who was actually something of an icon during his heyday. Willie, as portrayed by Emmett Kelly, was a sad-faced clown who was meant to be a representation of a Depression-era hobo. He rose to fame during his tenure with Ringling Brothers Circus, but took the 1956 season off from the circus to clown for the Dodgers. While Mr. Met represents the earliest iteration of modern mascots (at least as recognized by MLB), Willie helped set the tone for how mascots engage with a crowd and keep things exciting amidst lulls in the game action. Willie was not considered a mascot by the team but rather in-game entertainment. While we think of those things going hand-in-hand now, it’s a slight distinction that keeps Mr. Met’s status as the first of his kind intact.

During the 1950s, when the Dodgers were still based in Brooklyn and bore the nickname of “dem bums,” it made sense to have a hobo character as a comical foil to entertain fans mid-game. Kelly, who often also joined the team for spring training, moved with them to Los Angeles, but ultimately left after the 1962 season, feeling that the Dodgers new home was simply “too big for one clown.” It’s likely best that Kelly’s tenure ended on his own terms, as it’s hard to imagine that such a character would have been appropriate on-field fodder for much longer.

It’s the Atlanta Braves, though, that might have the worst former mascot in modern baseball history. The team, which still comes under fire for its name, as well as the oft-discussed “Tomahawk Chop” performed by the crowd, once leaned even further into racial stereotypes in the form of their mascot. Today’s fans might be most familiar with Blooper, the club’s current mascot that was introduced in 2018, and those around in the 1970s and early 80s might recall the Bleacher Creature, who roamed the stands from 1977-81. But it’s the memory of Chief Noc-A-Homa that the organization would likely prefer to forget. Chief Noc-A-Homa pre-dated and also outlasted the Bleacher Creature, staying with the team from 1966-85. Notably, the Chief character, who had a tepee set up in the left-field seats, was not in a suit or oversized costume, but was played by a real person dressed as a Native American chief. Chief Noc-A-Homa was primarily portrayed by an actual Native American, with Levi Walker playing the part for over a decade. In 1983, the Braves also briefly added Princess Win-A-Lotta to the rotation, but she only lasted for one season.

Noc-A-Homa didn’t stir up much controversy at the time in the local Atlanta media, though he was mentioned in Russell Means’ 1972 lawsuit against the Cleveland Indians as being equally as problematic as Chief Wahoo. Walker went on the radio during the lawsuit to defend himself as well as the Cleveland organization, and ultimately the Noc-A-Homa character remained in place. After the 1985 season, Walker made it clear that the $60 per game he was making to play the mascot wasn’t enough, and rather than increasing his pay, the club decided to part ways with him, citing missed appearances. (Walker also admitted that he had asked out several female fans while on the job, one of whom turned out to be the daughter of a Braves executive.) The team did not recast the role, and in spite of fans who had grown superstitious about Chief Noc-A-Homa’s presence and a grassroots campaign in 1991 to bring him back during the Braves’ postseason push, the mascot hasn’t returned. With the benefit of hindsight, though, it’s clear why the Braves didn’t want to bring Walker back in 1991 (or at any time since) and why the team hasn’t used the “Screaming Indian” logo since it last appeared on a batting practice cap in 2012, though much like the Chief Wahoo design, MLB retains the right to use the logo. Many professional sports teams are finally responding to pressure from Indigenous groups to change outdated and racist team names, and those that do so seem to want to create distance between their current policies and the choices they made in the past. The Braves have a long way to go in this regard. They have not indicated any long-term plans to adopt a new name, and despite outside pressure, they have not eliminated the “Tomahawk Chop.” The team still dims the lights during opposing pitching changes, which prompts fans to light up their cell phones and participate in the longstanding, and troubling, tradition.

As some mascots have fallen out use, their broader role has continued to evolve over the years. We now find ourselves in a time where professional sports mascots can mean more to a team than just in-game amusement for the kids in attendance. The New York Times recently reported on how the branding for the Rocket City Trash Pandas helped generate $4 million in sales of merchandise featuring team mascot Sproket. Considering that even the most valuable minor league teams earn about $15 million a season in total revenue, earning $4 million in merchandise sales shows the incredible power of having a good mascot.

The value of mascots to clubs may be shifting as time progresses, and we’re seeing some teams achieve moments of pop culture relevance via their performers and branding. The Trash Pandas might not have the same reach outside of their sport as the Philadelphia Fliers do with Gritty, their giant orange monster who has transcended hockey to be his own entity, but the popularity of Sproket helped make the Trash Pandas a success before they’d won a single game. Mascots may primarily be used to appeal to children and get crowds amped up during games, but they can also impact a club’s bottom line.

There have been stumbles along the way, with teams learning from the growing pains of their off-putting or downright scary creations. Sometimes those missteps have led to teams abandoning mascots altogether, as the Yankees have done. Other teams have moved on from mascots with overtly racist overtones, replacing them with characters more in line with the style of the San Diego Chicken, as the Braves have done with Blooper. Mascots can be a charming part of the fan experience, but like all other aspects of baseball history, they are not without their failings, and it’s important to recognize the bad along with the good. And while mascots may be meant to appeal mostly to children, they also bring out the kid in all of us.


Testing the Depth: The National League

Yesterday, we explored the roster depth of the American League playoff contenders, identifying the strengths and weaknesses that might prove decisive down the stretch for the teams whose playoff odds sit above 10%. Today, we’ll do the same for the National League squads with October ambitions.

National League East

Atlanta Braves
Strengths: Atlanta’s slow and steady climb into first place has involved a considerable amount of roster management. One side effect of all the maneuvers that have gotten them where they are is significant depth. During Travis d’Arnaud’s absence, the team learned that William Contreras is a capable big league catcher. They filled their considerable outfield holes with Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler, and Adam Duvall, while Cristian Pache, who flamed out early in the season, has finally gotten hot at Triple-A Gwinnett and should be a nice September addition. The Gwinnett infield is packed with players who have big league experience, like Jason Kipnis and Ryan Goins. The return of Huascar Ynoa, with Ian Anderson not far behind, creates a sudden bevy of rotation options. Read the rest of this entry »


How Dansby Swanson Increased Contact Without Sacrificing Power

As the Braves have moved up the standings, claiming sole possession of first place in the NL East for the first time this season, the left side of their infield has lead the charge. Granted, the whole team is playing well right now, but through August 16, third baseman Austin Riley and shortstop Dansby Swanson are each in the top-10 in WAR since the All-Star break, at 1.5 apiece.

I wrote about Riley earlier this season, so it makes sense to cover his left-side counterpart now. Plus, Swanson has always been a personal favorite of mine; in January 2020, I wrote about why I thought he was poised to break out ahead of last season. And while Swanson’s offensive numbers — he posted a .274/.345/.464 slash line and a 116 wRC+ — were the best of his career, critics could still point to a raised strikeout rate, high BABIP, and general lack of power. At the time, I said that Swanson’s improved plate discipline might be one sign of better days to come. But with the significant increase in strikeouts and no associated increase in power, it seemed fair to worry about what he’d do at the plate in 2021.

The projection systems were ambivalent on the sustainability of his 2020 as well. ZiPS had Swanson posting a 90 wRC+ this year; Steamer, slightly more optimistic, went with 93. His 2021 stats don’t deviate that much from those projections either: Through 495 plate appearances, he’s slashed .264/.316/.493 with a 110 wRC+ — better than the start of his career, but worse than 2020.  Read the rest of this entry »