There isn’t much missing from Freddie Freeman’s sterling career. He’s won an MVP, hit for the cycle, racked up 42 WAR, captured a pair of Silver Sluggers, and has already made five All-Star teams. That’s not quite enough for Cooperstown on its own, but he’s probably only a few more star caliber seasons away from a pretty good Hall of Fame case, and given that he’s only 32, he’s got time to pad his resume. With apologies to a criminally under-photographed snowmobile ride with Chipper Jones, the only thing missing from Freeman’s career has been an iconic moment.

No longer. In the eighth inning of a 4-4 tie in Tuesday’s NLDS Game 4, Freeman stepped to the plate against Josh Hader. Hader, of course, is the sport’s best relief pitcher and an absolute terror against lefties. He hadn’t given up a homer to a lefty all year, hadn’t surrendered a run since July, and hadn’t given the two previous hitters much of a chance to hit his nasty fastball/slider combo. On his first pitch to Freeman though, his bender caught too much plate and one chance was all that Freeman needed:

Milwaukee mustered a leadoff single in the ninth, but never got any closer to tying the game. Freeman’s late dinger ultimately clinched the series, and ensured the Braves wouldn’t rue a day that could have been defined by risky gambles and opportunities missed. Read the rest of this entry »

Freddy Peralta was cruising. He had thrown four shutout innings, allowing three hits (and only three batted balls over 100 mph), walking one and striking out five on just 57 pitches. Ian Anderson was arguably even better: five scoreless frames, three hits allowed, and six strikeouts. But with a chance to put something on the board in a scoreless game during a series where runs have been scarce, both managers pulled their starters, who both seemingly had plenty left in the tank, to take a shot at creating instant offense. It didn’t work out for the Brewers, but it worked out wonderfully for the Braves, and that combination of outcomes is why Atlanta now has a 2–1 series lead thanks to a 3–0 victory on Monday afternoon at home.

The game might not have had many runs, but it certain had plenty of drama in the first four innings. Atlanta blew a golden opportunity in the second inning when, with runners on first and third with one out, Travis d’Arnaud lofted a fly ball to left field. Neither deep nor shallow, it was still enough to serve as a sacrifice fly to give the Braves an early lead. But nobody told Adam Duvall on first, or, to be fair in sharing the blame, Austin Riley on third. Once Christian Yelich caught the ball, Riley broke for home — not lollygagging it by any stretch, but not full effort either. That proved to be critical, as Duvall, for reasons only he possibly understands (or maybe even now doesn’t), tried to go from first to second. Yelich threw Duvall out before Riley touched home, and the game remained scoreless.

The Brewers, meanwhile, didn’t come close to getting on the board until the pivotal fifth inning, when an Omar Narváez double — only Milwaukee’s third extra-base hit of the series — gave the team runners at second and third to begin the top of the frame. Dansby Swanson made an exceptional play (one of two on the afternoon) on a blistering ground ball off the bat of Lorenzo Cain for the first out, and with Peralta due to hit, the game had its first inflection point. Craig Counsell’s decision was to pull his effective starter for pinch-hitter Daniel Vogelbach.

Vogelbach, though, grounded into a fielder’s choice that resulted in an out at home. Kolten Wong then smacked a hard line drive with an expected batting average of .700, but right at first baseman Freddie Freeman. For the 20th time in 21 innings (and now 25 of 26), the Brewers put up another zero.

The removal of Peralta didn’t work on a run-scoring level, and it failed on a run-prevention one as well, as the first man out of the bullpen, Adrian Houser, simply didn’t have it. Two quick singles put Brian Snitker in a similar situation as Counsell in the top half of the frame, and the decision was the same: pull the starter, replacing Anderson with Joc Pederson. But after getting a swing and a miss on an elevated fastball, Houser went back to the well with the same pitch, and Pederson didn’t miss it, mashing a three-run home run (one which gave Atlanta the highest-scoring inning of the series). The Braves cruised from there as a quartet of relievers finished the job, each delivering a scoreless inning.

Counsell’s strategy was defensible. His bullpen has been strong all year, and lifting Peralta would leave him available in relief for one or two innings if a Game 5 became necessary. More importantly, Milwaukee needed to score runs, as its offense has gone AWOL in the postseason — though it’s not as if the Brewers were all that present in the regular season, either. While they finished sixth in the NL in runs scored, they also ranked just 11th in OPS and wRC+, and even that mediocre performance needed in-season boosts from Willy Adames, Eduardo Escobar and Rowdy Tellez to avoid a worse finish.

The problems are myriad. Yelich never got going. Cain isn’t a star anymore. Jackie Bradley Jr. was a disaster at the plate, and Keston Hiura generated more questions than answers as the team’s first baseman of the future. With one of the best rotations in the game and arguably the best manager of bullpens in all of baseball, the Brewers didn’t need all that many runs to be a very good team, but they certainly needed some runs, and that just hasn’t happened in the playoffs. Tellez’ dramatic home run in the seventh inning of Game 1 off of Charlie Morton remains the only time in 26 innings that the Brewers have crossed the plate. Here is the back of the baseball card for Milwaukee after today’s loss:

Obviously, that should generate more than two runs, but a miserable 0-for-16 with runners in scoring position adds insult to the offensive injuries.

There is no one player to blame for this kind of full-team failure; every Brewer regular has at least one hit, but Adames, with four, is the only one with more than two. The Braves have not only prevented hits — Swanson and Riley in particular have done terrific work on the left side of the infield — but also prevented balls in play at all for some of Milwaukee’s biggest names: Adames, Yelich, Escobar and Avisaíl García have combined for 23 whiffs in 44 plate appearances.

For much of the 2021 season, the talk around the Milwaukee Brewers was how well they were positioned for a postseason run thanks to arguably the best 1-2-3 rotation combo in the business. Those starters have done their job against Atlanta, allowing just three runs on ten hits over an aggregate of 16 innings, good for a 1.69 ERA. What wasn’t talked about enough was a fringy offense, and it’s the latter that has the Brewers on the brink of elimination without any of that magical starting trio available in anything but emergency relief use in Game 4 on Tuesday afternoon.

In wrapping up Game 1 of the ALDS between the Rays and the Red Sox, I noted that however inventive or even correct the pitching strategies of Alex Cora were, none of it mattered at all if his team couldn’t score. Boston’s bats have come to life in a big way, though; now Milwaukee can just hope for the same. We can debate all day as to whether or not Counsell should have pulled Peralta, but in the end, nine more goose eggs on the scoreboard made the argument irrelevant.

For both the Braves and Brewers, postseason success shares a similar blueprint: length from the starters, timely hits from the lineup, hope for the best with the bullpen (albeit at different times). Milwaukee executed that to perfection in Game 1 of this NLDS; in Game 2, it was Atlanta’s turn, with the Braves drawing the series even with a 3–0 win.

The difference on Saturday was Max Fried, who out-dueled Brandon Woodruff with six shutout innings, striking out nine against just three hits and zero walks. The lefty needed only 81 pitches to record his 18 outs before giving way to three relievers, who dodged plenty of trouble but managed to secure the final three frames with no damage. Like Corbin Burnes in Game 1, Fried didn’t so much beat opposing batters as brush them aside; Willy Adames was the lone Brewer to make it as far as second base against him on a sixth-inning double. Most of his outing was whiffs and soft contact, with Adames’ double the only ball in play he allowed to crack the 100 mph exit velocity mark. At-bats and innings were over in flashes.

The explanation for Fried’s success is simple: He threw strikes. Of his 81 pitches, 58 were in the zone, a 71.6% rate, which he pounded with his four-seamer — humming in at 95 mph on average — before busting out his slider and curve to finish things. Not normally a big swing-and-miss pitcher, he racked up a dozen whiffs on the day, six on the slider, to go with a CSW (called strikes + whiffs) rate of 40%; of his nine strikeouts, seven were swinging. By the time the middle innings rolled around, he’d found a groove: The final 10 Brewers hitters he faced all started their at-bats with a strike, and just two of them reached base. Read the rest of this entry »

The National League Division Series between the Atlanta Braves and the Milwaukee Brewers got off to a low-scoring start on Friday afternoon, with Corbin Burnes dueling Charlie Morton for six innings. Offense was nearly nowhere to be found, as the teams combined for just nine hits against 18 strikeouts. The three runs came on two hits: a two-run shot by Rowdy Tellez in the bottom of the seventh and a solo follow-up by Joc Pederson the next half-inning:

That wasn’t the only big moment of the night by Tellez, as the husky first baseman made a solid throw to nail Jorge Soler at the plate for the back end of an Ozzie Albies double play ball in the first inning. That run turned out to be the difference. Read the rest of this entry »

Despite reaching the playoffs in dramatically different ways, the Brewers (95–67, NL Central champions) and Braves (88–73, NL East champions) look rather alike. Our power rankings give Atlanta the slight edge, but our projections land slightly on the side of Milwaukee. And while the Brewers may have the advantage in record, the Braves had a better run differential. To make matters even tighter, they split their season series, 3–3. Still, our staff predictions, where 26 of 28 folks chose the Brewers, would suggest that this is the most lopsided of the first-round matchups, but I don’t think that captures how close this series is on paper.

The Brewers won the NL Central with elite starting pitching that helped make up for their poor offense, which scored just enough runs to make those starts stand up. The Braves have a more well-rounded team that is strong on offense, pitching and defense, but is perhaps not elite anywhere.

Milwaukee coasted into the playoffs, with a 52–27 stretch in the heart of the season giving them a 99.9% chance to win the division on September 1. Going 14–15 in that final month may have made fans uneasy heading into October, but Craig Counsell was able to use his team’s large lead to go a bit easier on a pitching staff that will be asked to do the heaviest lifting going forward.

Of more concern for the Brewers is the injury to Devin Williams, who broke his hand while celebrating the division clinch and will miss the postseason. He was their best right-handed option out of the pen, and his loss will put added pressure on Brad Boxberger, Hunter Strickland and Jake Cousins, all of whom move up a rung on the ladder and none of whom are sure bets. Boxberger had a great season but pitched poorly in September, with 10 earned runs and three homers allowed in 8.2 innings. Strickland has been stellar since joining the Brewers in mid-June, but that came with a .198 BABIP. Cousins has the most electric stuff of the trio but is fresh off a biceps injury that kept him out of Milwaukee’s final week of games.

Unlike the Brewers, the Braves have been playing meaningful games all September, sweeping a big series against the Phillies at the end of the month and surviving just enough shaky outings from volatile closer Will Smith to clinch their fourth straight division crown. That latest title did not come easy. Atlanta lost its best player, Ronald Acuña Jr., to a torn ACL on July 10th, and went without one of their best pitchers all season when Mike Soroka suffered a setback in his recovery from an Achilles tear. Add some poor play to the mix, and the Braves had just a 10.4% chance to win the NL East on the day of the trade deadline. But thanks to a number of small moves made at the deadline, like bringing in Eddie Rosario, Adam Duvall, and Jorge Soler, the team took off.

Read the rest of this entry »

Below you’ll find today’s ZiPS stretch run update. For details on just what’s going on here, please refer to my original article describing all these mathnanigans.

American League Wild Card

Seattle beat Oakland on Wednesday, sweeping the series and knocking the A’s out of playoff contention. As such, Oakland is no longer a participant in these charts. The Blue Jays won the second game of their series against the Yankees, preventing them from falling to fourth in the playoff probabilities, behind the Mariners. We’ll be a lot closer to knowing who makes the playoffs in the AL after tonight’s games, as those contests — the last contender vs. contender matchup, as well as the biggest creampuff game for a contender — are the two highest leverage games remaining. Read the rest of this entry »

Please note, this posting contains two positions.

Position: R&D Analyst (Trainee and Full-Time)

The R&D Analyst position will assist Baseball Operations decision-making through the analysis and research of baseball information. The day-to-day responsibilities of this position will revolve around using data analysis to provide insight into player evaluation, performance projection, roster construction, and all other facets of baseball operations decision making, with an emphasis on different areas of baseball operations depending on the baseball calendar and needs of the department. Ideal candidates will have a strong, demonstrated ability to answer wide-ranging research questions using data-driven methods. The position will report to Assistant General Manager, Research and Development.

Note: Applicants for full-time, full-season trainee, and summer intern (May-August) will be considered.

Responsibilities

• Perform advanced statistical analysis on large datasets in order to assist in the decision making of the Baseball Operations department
• Develop and maintain models, software, reports, or any other information system developed during research
• Perform ad-hoc research projects as requested and present results in a concise manner

Read the rest of this entry »

A few days ago, I wrote about projections and the stretch run, using ZiPS to project each individual game and estimate its relative importance for the final standings. With just a few games remaining, most have the potential to drastically swing the disposition of the race. For example, the Mariners saw their playoff probability quintuple with last night’s win over the A’s! Let’s break down the latest and greatest.

AL Wild Card

This one is still very wide open, with the main difference from 48 hours ago being that the Mariners have pushed the A’s to the brink of elimination. Oakland can still make the playoffs, but the path is narrow and would require Oakland to win three or four games while Toronto, Boston, and Seattle mostly lose, and then perhaps survive a tiebreaker. Oakland can no longer catch the Yankees, so it’s in the A’s interest for the Yankees to finish a sweep of the Jays: Read the rest of this entry »

9/28 Late Morning Update

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The original data and methodology are below.
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We’ve reached the final week of the 2021 regular season, and for fans of high-intensity, stretch-drive baseball — a group I think we can refer to as “everyone” — there’s still quite a lot to play for. Only five of the 10 playoff spots are claimed, with two of those five teams in a battle for a division title. And since there are just a handful of games left to play, we can move the ZiPS projections from the macro to the micro. In April, it’s always hard to project specific pitcher matchups, but with a week left to go in the season, it’s a more reasonable task of extrapolation. As a result, that allows me to adapt the ZiPS model into a game-by-game projection of the final week of the season for the relevant teams.

I’ve focused on three of the playoff spots, the two AL wild cards, and the NL East, along with the division versus wild card battle in the NL West. The Astros can still technically lose the division to the Mariners (one-in-about-1,800) or the Athletics (one-in-about-2,150), and the Cardinals could still have an epic collapse in which they lose six, the Reds win six, and they lose the tiebreaker (one-in-about-3,300). These could also become mathematical impossibilities quickly; if they become plausible rather than proverbial lottery tickets, I’ll update with the data.

Let’s start with the easy races.

NL East

The Braves enter the final week with a 2 1/2-game lead in the division but three games remaining against the Phillies. Their schedules are similar in strength, with Atlanta getting home games and Philadelphia on the road, something that’s largely canceled out by the former getting the slightly harder opponent (the Mets versus the Marlins). The edge comes from the cushion.

With the edge in the standings, ZiPS projects just over a four-in-five chance that the Braves will not have to play the Rockies in a makeup game on Monday. Overall, the Braves win the division 87.7% of the time without the makeup game, and the Phillies stick the Braves in at least a 1 1/2-game hole 1.0% of the time.

Read the rest of this entry »

These are notes on prospects from Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments of the Daily Prospect Notes here.

Noah Campbell, UTIL, Milwaukee Brewers
Level & Affiliate: Low-A Carolina Age: 22 Org Rank: NR FV: 30
Line: 0-for-4, BB, 1 IP, SV, played all nine positions

Notes
Campbell has played mostly 1B/3B/LF this year but also has had a handful of games at either middle infield spot; yesterday was the fourth time this season he has pitched but his first action in center field. A likely org guy more than a prospect, Campbell is wrapping up a nice first pro season, slashing .270/.388/.387 with 20 steals and one big, rare feather in his cap because of yesterday’s game.

JP Sears, LHP, New York Yankees
Level & Affiliate: Double-A Somerset Age: 25 Org Rank: NR FV: 35
Line: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 1 R, 7 K

Notes
Sears was drafted by Seattle in 2017 and traded to New York later that year as part of the package (with Juan Then) for Nick Rumbelow. He began the year as a swingman, pitching multiple innings out of the Double-A bullpen and making an occasional spot start. By July, Sears grabbed hold of a rotation spot and held it amid a promotion to Triple-A, where he has a 3.05 ERA and a 51-to-9 K-to-BB ratio in 41 innings. Sears is throwing a little harder this season, averaging just a shade over 93 mph on his fastball after sitting 90-92 and topping out at 93 in 2019. He works with flat fastball angle at the top of the zone, his slider has utility as a backfoot offering to righties, and Sears’ changeup is passable. He’s a perfectly fine spot starter candidate, the sort the Yankees rarely rely on but often find a trade outlet for. Read the rest of this entry »