This offseason, I was tasked with preparing a writeup of right fielders in the game of major-league baseball. That was quite a difficult exercise, for it requires one to predict the future, and soothsayers are, at least to my knowledge, mythical. Still, I was quite confident when I wrote this:

There are those people who believe that Nick Markakis will make a run at 3,000 hits and the Hall of Fame. I am not among those people. Granted, Markakis has compiled 2,052 hits in his big-league career. That’s good! But Markakis, now at 34, is not good. Not at all. In fact, he really hasn’t been good since 2010. Since then, Markakis’s WAR has gone 1.4, 1.6, -0.2, 2.5, 1.5, 1.1, 0.9. In other words, of Markakis’ 25.3 career WAR, almost 17 were accrued in the first five years of his career.

Markakis hasn’t been even a league-average hitter since 2015, and that year he hit three (3) home runs. He hasn’t been even an average defensive outfielder since 2008. He hasn’t added value on the basepaths since 2009. In 2017, Markakis was below average against righties (97 wRC+) as well as lefties (91 wRC+), and his only remaining plus tool is his plate discipline and ability to draw walks. That’s all that separates Markakis from being a replacement-level player, and the projections aren’t optimistic about that, either. Markakis isn’t going to the Hall of Fame because he probably won’t get a big-league deal this offseason.

Welp.

Nick Markakis must have read that, because he has looked like a Hall of Famer so far this year. Entering Sunday, Markakis, who is 34, was slashing .344/.428/.550 (all career bests) with a 169 (career-best) wRC+. He also appears to have turned around his play afield, too, posting positive defensive numbers (that is, UZR and positional adjustment combined) for the first time since the Bush administration (2008). Nick Markakis, in 2018, has been worth roughly as many wins as his 2016 and 2017 combined.

What the hell has gotten into Nick Markakis?

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You do something with your days, I think. You must. You get up in the morning, stretch out your arms and legs, blink a few times, maybe check your phone for a few minutes. (Try not to, though! Screen addiction is a real problem!) Then get up and do something with your day until, not that many hours later, you fall asleep in your nice warm bed and do it all over again.

Imagine this, though: imagine if, one day, you woke up and found that you were doing that thing — the thing you do with your days — better than you’ve ever done it before. Better, in fact, than most people have ever done it. That would be great, right? That’s a little bit of what’s been happening to Shane Carle recently, day over day, a little bit at a time.

You may not know who Shane Carle is, so let’s run over the resume. First of all, he’s a player with the Atlanta Braves — a reliever, in fact. He’s 26 years old. He’s 6-foot-4 and weighs 210 pounds. He’s a rookie. He throws a fastball, a changeup, a slider, and a curveball — in roughly that order of frequency. And this is where Carle is already a bit different: not many major-league relievers throw four pitches well with any regularity. If they do, they’re often encouraged to become major-league starters. But Carle is a major-league reliever. And we’re getting distracted. Let’s continue with the resume.

Carle was selected out of Cal State-Long Beach in the 10th round of the 2013 draft, by the Pirates. He wasn’t bad for the Pirates, but he wasn’t especially good, either, and he didn’t strike out very many people, even at High-A. The Pirates are pretty good at developing pitching, and after the 2014 season, they decided they didn’t want to develop Shane Carle anymore. He was traded to the Rockies, and despite exhibiting little more promise than the year before — at least on paper — he’d been promoted to Triple-A Albuquerque by the end of 2015.

And when he got there, something happened that’s had very important consequences for Shane Carle’s present: he started to strike people out. In Triple-A in 2015, Carle struck out 4.5 batters for every nine innings he threw. In that same league in 2016, he struck out 7.1 batters for every nine innings he threw. And this year, for the Atlanta Braves, against real major-league hitters, Carle has struck out 17 batters in fewer than 20 innings, and he’s got the fifth-most relief WAR of any pitcher in baseball. Here is some visual interest:

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Position: Major League Operations Intern

Location: Atlanta, GA

Description:
Support the Major League Operations group through the creation of tools for displaying and disseminating data, statistics, and other baseball-related information. The ideal candidate has a strong technical background and can work independently on self-contained projects, as well as an understanding of baseball research concepts and modern gameplay strategies.

Responsibilities:

• Develop tools and visualizations for disseminating statistical concepts.
• Conduct research projects for the Major League Operations group.
• Help build database and reporting infrastructure to support Major League advance report and coaching staff needs.
• Summarize project results in succinct, actionable format and present findings to the group.
• Opportunities for other ad-hoc contributions to the Major League advance scouting process.

Qualifications:

• Demonstrated track record as self-starter through independently-produced projects and/or writing (via online publication, etc.).
• Strong foundation in the application of statistical concepts to baseball data and the translation of data into actionable baseball recommendations.
• Required: Advanced-level capabilities in R and SQL.
• Preferred: Experience with at least one scripting language (e.g. Python, Ruby, Perl) and web development experience with Python Flask.
• Preferred: Demonstrable independent research (published or unpublished) using publicly available datasets (i.e. PITCHf/x, Statcast, etc).

Duration:
Early June through August, with potential opportunity for future full-time employment.

To Apply:
Please email relevant materials, research, and resume to bravesopsjobs@gmail.com.

Tanking is a problem. Professional sports like baseball are built on the assumption that both sides are trying to win. Organizations putting forth less than their best efforts hurts the integrity of the sport and provides fans with little reason to engage. That said, the perception of tanking might have overtaken the reality of late. Competitive imbalance is not the same as tanking. Sometimes teams are just bad, even if they are trying not to be.

Tanking concerns are not new. Two years ago, just after the Astros and Cubs had turned their teams around, the Phillies were attempting to dismantle their roster by trading Cole Hamels. The Braves had traded multiple players away from a team that had been competitive. The Brewers, who traded away Carlos Gomez, would soon do the same with Jonathan Lucroy after he rebuilt his trade value.

The Braves, Brewers, and Phillies all sold off whatever assets they could. Two years later, though, those clubs aren’t mired in last place. Rather, they’re a combined 54-37 and projected to win around 80 games each this season in what figures to be a competitive year for each. While the Braves and Phillies could and/or should have done more this offseason to improve their rosters, neither resorted to an extreme level of failure, and the teams are better today than they would have been had they not rebuilt. While accusations of tanking dogged each, none of those clubs descended as far as either the Astros or Cubs. None came close to the NBA-style tank jobs many feared.

One might suspect that I’ve cherry-picked the three clubs mentioned above, purposely selecting teams with surprising early-season success to prop up a point about the relatively innocuous effects of tanking. That’s not what I’ve done, though. Rather, I’ve highlighted the three teams Buster Olney cited by name two years ago — and which Dave Cameron also addressed — in a piece on tanking.

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Since 1999, five second basemen have produced 40 or more wins. Of that group, Chase Utley debuted first, in 2003. Robinson Cano arrived in 2005, and Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, and Ben Zobrist all made their first major-league appearances in 2006. Over the last dozen years, those five players have dominated the position, and while they might not have gotten a shirtless photo-op like the shortstops of a generation prior, they have defined excellence at second base.

Even looking at the production of that group over the last four years — roughly a decade after their debuts — Cano, Kinsler, Pedroia, and Zobrist make up half of the top eight by WAR. Jose Altuve and Brian Dozier, who appear among the leaders, have emerged over the last half-decade, while Daniel Murphy has been a late-bloomer. But a collection of older players who debuted in 2005 and 2006 — one that also includes Aaron Hill, Howie Kendrick, Brandon Phillips (Reds debut in 2006), Dan Uggla, Rickie Weeks Jr. — have been mainstays at the position over the last decade.

At the moment, however, it seems as though a changing of the guard is underway. Young talents like Ozzie Albies and Yoan Moncada — along with a strong group of prospects — appear ready to take over.

The 2016 season represented the best one ever seen for second basemen. Twelve players recorded four-win seasons, while batters at the position produced a collective 106 wRC+ for the season. While Jose Altuve topped that season’s production, Cano, Kinsler, and Pedroia made up three of the next five players. Due to the aging veterans near the top of the list, that level of production was going to be impossible to maintain. Unsurprisingly, the positional numbers dipped last season, with only Altuve, Dozier, and Murphy reaching the four-wins threshold, while Jose Ramirez’s great season came mostly while playing third. Second basemen put up a respectable 99 wRC+, but it was much closer to traditional expectations of the position.

This year, second-base production is up to a 103 wRC+. This early in the season, of course, we don’t know if that production will continue. What’s of considerably more interest, however, is the players occupying the top of the leaderboards at second base.

Jed Lowrie and Asdrubal Cabrera are off to incredibly good starts, but the next three players on this list are all 25 or younger. Like Lowrie and Cabrera, their hot starts are unsustainable. They’ve each built themselves a cushion, however, such that even modest production will result in strong end-of-season numbers.

According to the projections, which are conservative in nature, Albies and Moncada — the latter using an unusual approach at the plate — are headed for nearly four-WAR seasons, while Baez seems likely to reach three wins. The last time three second basemen aged 25 and under produced at least three wins was 2007 when Cano, Hill, Pedroia, Weeks Jr., and Kelly Johnson did it. Before 2007, you have to go all the way back to 1993, when Roberto Alomar and Delino DeShields led a young group that also included Chuck Knoblauch the previous season. No group is likely to measure up to the triumvirate of Paul Molitor, Willie Randolph, and Lou Whitaker from 1979 or the class of 1965 (featuring Gene Alley, Jim Lefebvre, Joe Morgan, and Pete Rose, but a collection of good, young second basemen is not a common occurrence, no matter how good the group turns out.

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Jonny Venters was in the news this week after becoming the first pitcher to appear in a big-league game after undergoing three Tommy John surgeries. The 33-year-old veteran worked one-third-of-an-inning for the Tampa Bay Rays after having last pitched for the Atlanta Braves in the 2012 postseason. It’s a great story, worthy of the attention it’s garnered (and will continue to garner; colleague Jay Jaffe will have more on Venters in the coming days).

On Friday, I approached Venters to discuss a tangentially-related subject: the worm-killing sinker that made him an effective setup man before his elbow became stubbornly uncooperative. Since the stat began being tabulated, no pitcher with at least 125 career innings under his belt has had a higher ground-ball rate than the 68.4% mark put up by the come-backing left-hander.

Venters transitioned to a sinker-ball pitcher in 2009 when he was a starter with the Double-A Mississippi Braves. He’d been primarily a four-seam guy, but the organization asked him to put that pitch in his back pocket and begin prioritizing his two-seam. Helped initially by the tutelage of pitching coach Marty Reed, it eventually became his go-to.

Success wasn’t instantaneous. Read the rest of this entry »

I said something that was off base in my most recent FanGraphs chat, which probably happens every week. In this case, however, having done the research in the area that qualifies as my wheelhouse — the Hall of Fame beat — it’s worth setting the record straight.

With Ronald Acuña’s debut fresh in mind, reader BK asked me, “What is the highest probability you would give to a rookie of making the Hall of Fame? Over [or] under 5%?”

My response was, “It depends upon the rookie. An overall No. 1 prospect who’s reaching the majors for good at 20 years old and then succeeding, I might say 5-10%. That’s just off the top of my head; guys who can stick at that age are by far the best HOF prospects.”

Leaving aside the subjectivity that comes with labeling a player an “overall No. 1 prospect,” I should have remembered based upon my reading and research that any playing time in the majors at such a young age gives a player about a 5-10% chance at Cooperstown. Using the Baseball-Reference Play Index, here are the number of position players who had at least one season with a plate appearance at each age from 18 to 21 (using the June 30 cutoff convention) and the rates at which they reached the Hall of Fame:

In calculating the percentages, I’ve excluded active players — such as Adrian Beltre, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Jurickson Profar, Mike Trout and Justin Upton as 19 year olds — because of course they’re not yet eligible for the Hall.

Using a 100 PA cutoff to fulfill the “significant playing time” requirement, here’s the breakdown:

In both tables, players may be counted more than once; for example, Mel Ott is one of three Hall of Famers and 11 players who qualified at age 18, and one of 13 Hall of Famers and 59 players who did so at 19, et cetera. For the 20-year-olds, the list of 33 qualifiers who are enshrined includes Ott, Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Jimmie Foxx, Rogers Hornsby, Ted Williams, Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, Hank Aaron, Roberto Clemente, Al Kaline, Frank Robinson, Brooks Robinson, Johnny Bench, Robin Yount, Rickey Henderson, and one from each of the last three Hall classes: Ken Griffey Jr. (2016), Ivan Rodriguez (2017) and Jim Thome (2018). That’s a lot of inner-circle guys, if you care to make that distinction.

For the qualifiers at age 20 who are still active, I present you with the whole list:

Based on the data above, we should expect three or four to wind up in Cooperstown, but I’d suggest taking the “over” on that count. Beltre, with his 3,075 hits, status as one of the game’s greatest defensive third basemen, and the No. 4 ranking in JAWS at the position, is a lock. Cabrera, with 2,662 hits, 464 homers, and the No. 11 JAWS ranking at first base — already above the standard — is pretty close to a lock as well, as is Trout, who already ranks ninth among center fielders in JAWS and fifth in seven-year peak despite having played just six full season and change. Past MVP winners Harper and Stanton are probably the next two players, odds-wise, but they’ve got much more work to do than Trout. And note the presence of Acuña’s teammate, Ozzie Albies. Check back in 25 to 30 years and see which of these guys panned out.

The Ronald Acuña era has begun, and in impressive fashion. Called up by the Braves on Wednesday after his service clock had been sufficiently gamed, the 20-year-old five-tool phenom made his debut against the Reds in Cincinnati, showing off his speed and his aggressive approach at the plate. He sparked a game-tying rally with his first major-league hit, and the Braves ultimately snapped a two-game losing streak against the Reds with a 5-4 win.

Acuña, who turned 20 on December 18, spent 2017 rocketing up the organizational ladder and the prospect rankings, beginning the season at High-A Florida and finishing it at Triple-A Gwinnett, hitting a combined .325/.374/.522 with 21 homers and 44 steals along the way. After ranking anywhere from 31st to 67th on major prospect lists last year, he topped those of Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and ESPN this spring, taking a back seat only to Shohei Ohtani on those of MLB.com and FanGraphs. Though he tore up the Grapefruit League this spring, either his hat was too crooked or his 2024 season too valuable for the Braves to attempt to start winning games with him in the lineup. General manager Alex Anthopoulos mumbled something about “the flow of the season,” millions of eyes rolled, and the team bought itself that extra year while Acuña started 2-for-19 at Triple-A Gwinnett.

The assumption with that move was that the Braves were just marking time in the fourth season of a rebuilding program that’s been far more dramatic than most, in terms of both highs (the stealing of 2015 overall No. 1 pick Dansby Swanson from the Diamondbacks, the 2017 opening of SunTrust Park) and lows (the mid-2016 firing of manager Fredi Gonzalez, the late-2017 resignation and subsequent lifetime ban of general manager John Coppolella for circumventing international signing rules). With Wednesday’s win, they’re now 13-10, their best start in five years and good for third place in a topsy-turvy NL East behind the Mets (15-7) and Phillies (15-8). That trio of teams finished a combined 70 games below .500 last year, but with the Nationals (11-14) starting slowly and the Marlins stripped nearly to the bone after a 77-85 finish that was somehow good for second place, the standings look a whole lot different.

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Officially, Ronald Acuna Jr. has been promoted. It’s right there on the transaction wire, with Peter Bourjos getting designated for assignment to make room. In short, it’s Acuna Day, or at least, it’s the first of what people hope will be hundreds or thousands of Acuna Days to celebrate. All the ugliness about service-time manipulation — it’s all still there, and it’s going to happen again, but at least Acuna himself won’t have to play in the minors ever again, barring a slump or a rehab stint. Today is the first day that Acuna will earn a major-league salary.

Acuna is pretty much the center of attention. Indirectly, though, that makes the Braves kind of the center of attention on the team scale. And, you know what, all things considered, the Braves have had a pretty strong start, even without their top prospect. They have more wins than losses, and one thing I’ve been struck by are surprise contributions from various journeymen. Even though he’s presently hurt, the Braves have gotten use out of Anibal Sanchez. Ryan Flaherty has been outstanding in the infield, even though he’ll shortly be replaced by Jose Bautista. Preston Tucker has been fine as a regular outfielder, even though he’s being replaced by Acuna. And then there’s backup catcher Kurt Suzuki. The backup to the currently injured Tyler Flowers.

For Suzuki, we’re not talking about only a productive first month. This would’ve been incredibly easy to miss, but Suzuki was tremendous in 2017, too, as a part-timer. Then the Braves re-signed him for $3.5 million. It’s been a long time since Suzuki was considered someone compelling. He’s 34 years old, which means he doesn’t have many playing years left. I don’t know how much more Kurt Suzuki is going to do. But as a fun little exercise, I’ve put together a short quiz. Let us give Suzuki the credit he deserves.

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When Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel released FanGraphs’ 2018 Top 100 Prospects list in February, Mike Soroka was described as “polished.” That’s especially meaningful given that the right-hander in the Atlanta Braves organization won’t turn 21 until August. And it’s far from his only attribute. Augmenting the aforementioned plaudit was an equally praiseworthy note that “everything he does is above average to plus.”

Add in the fact that Soroka dominated Double-A last year as a teenager — he had a 2.75 ERA in 26 starts at Mississippi — and it’s understandable why he ranks No. 34 overall on our list. Among pitchers (including two-way stalwarts Shohei Ohtani and Brendan McKay), he comes in at No. 14.

Drafted 28th overall by Atlanta in 2015 out of a Calgary, Alberta, Canada high school, Soroka is continuing his fast-track ways in the early stages of the 2018 campaign. In four outings with the Gwinnett Stripers, the 20-year-old has allowed just five runs in 22.2 innings against Triple-A competition. On Monday, he held Pawtucket scoreless through seven efficient frames.

Soroka discussed his have-fun attitude and the optimization of his repertoire this past weekend.

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Soroka on switching his focus from hockey to baseball: “I was a hockey player growing up. That was my main focus. When I was 12, I went to the Cal Ripken World Series, which is about the same age as the Little League World Series with a few differences. I represented Canada there. That’s when baseball got a little more serious, although it was still only in the summer months. A year or two later, I found that I just liked baseball better. I never went to a baseball practice, or to a game, that I didn’t want to be at.

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