Shohei Ohtani is a unicorn in terms of two-way talent, but he’s not the only player who has shown an ability to provide value on both sides of the ball. And you don’t need to go back as far as Babe Ruth or Negro Leagues legend Ted “Double Duty” Radcliffe to find examples. It’s not that long ago that Mike Hampton was putting up healthy offensive numbers in the DH-less National League, and Michael Lorenzen was pinch-hitting and playing the outfield for the Reds just two years ago. There is also Brendan McKay — he of the repaired labrum — who would presumably welcome a return to two-way play if the Rays were to give him that opportunity.

Cade Cavalli could conceivably handle his own as an Ohtani-lite. The top pitching prospect in the Washington Nationals system performed solely on the mound in his junior year at the University of Oklahoma, but he was both a pitcher and a corner infielder in the two years prior. And he raked. Cavalli’s sophomore numbers with the Sooners included a .319/.393/.611 slash line with five doubles, a pair of triples, and four home runs in 88 plate appearances. Including his freshman output, the Tulsa native went deep 10 times as a collegian.

I asked Cavalli for his thoughts on two-way players in MLB this past Friday.

“It takes a special person to be able to do that,” said Cavalli, who pitched in the Futures Game and is currently with the Double-A Harrisburg Senators. “There’s a lot that goes on; it’s not just playing in the game every single day. There’s early work, hitting, you’ve got your conditioning as a pitcher, you’ve got position work. It can take a toll on someone’s body. Read the rest of this entry »

Who’s the best catcher in the NL Central? Before the season, this was a good way to start an argument between Cardinals and Cubs fans. Was it Willson Contreras, the cannon-armed, cannon-batted Chicago backstop who has worked hard to improve his framing of late? Was it Yadier Molina, the stalwart St. Louis lifer with legendary defense who continued to hit long past when most thought he’d fade?

Neither! The best catcher in the NL Central this year is Omar Narváez, and it hasn’t been particularly close. By WAR, his 3.0 mark is nearly double Contreras, and that undersells it; he’s played in nine fewer games and has 64 fewer plate appearances. His 137 wRC+ is the second-best among catchers, trailing only Buster Posey’s incandescent season. He’s sixth in baseball in framing runs and third in total defensive value for catchers. A year after his worst offensive season, he’s turned it all around, and the Brewers are reaping the rewards.

Narváez came to Milwaukee with a reputation as a defensive butcher who could hit. He popped 22 homers in 2019 in only 482 plate appearances, his lone season in Seattle. Not only that, but he also struck out only 19.1% of the time — with a walk rate of nearly 10%. More walks than average, fewer strikeouts than average, plus power … he sounded like a match made in heaven.
Read the rest of this entry »

Bryson Stott had a pretty good idea of what to expect coming into the 2019 draft. Ultimately taken 14th overall by the Philadelphia Phillies, the now-23-year-old shortstop out of the University of Nevada Las Vegas had reason to believe that he would be selected in that neighborhood of the first round. Our own mock draft had him going one pick earlier, while Baseball America ended up being spot-on with their prediction.

Stott likewise knew that several of his friends would be taken in the first round, albeit not necessarily by which organizations. He and a handful of former USA Baseball teammates would periodically update each other on what they’d been hearing, as well as any pre-draft workouts they’d been invited to. Specific expectations were couched in caution.

“As I’m sure you know, you don’t really get much before the draft,” Stott told me earlier this month. “It’s kind of, ‘You hear one thing and then something else happens.’ So it’s a weird time, and an exciting one, but still pretty stressful.”

As Stott pointed out, the entire 2018 USA team infield went in the first round the following year. Andrew Vaughn was at first base, Braden Shewmake was at second, Stott played short, and Josh Jung covered the hot corner. Will Wilson was an extra infielder, while Shea Langeliers and Adley Rutschmann were the catchers. Last year’s first-overall pick, Spencer Torkelson, was also on the team.

“It was a pretty good infield,” said Stott, in what could rightly be called an understatement. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Milwaukee Brewers. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. As there was no minor league season in 2020, there are some instances where no new information was gleaned about a player. Players whose write-ups have not been meaningfully altered begin by telling you so. As always, I’ve leaned more heavily on sources from outside of a given org than those within for reasons of objectivity. Because outside scouts were not allowed at the alternate sites, I’ve primarily focused on data from there, and the context of that data, in my opinion, reduces how meaningful it is. Lastly, in an effort to more clearly indicate relievers’ anticipated roles, you’ll see two reliever designations, both on my lists and on The Board: MIRP, or multi-inning relief pitcher, and SIRP, or single-inning relief pitcher.

For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed, you can click here. For further explanation of Future Value’s merits and drawbacks, read Future Value.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It can be found here.

By now, I’m sure you’re aware of Yasmani Grandal’s odd season. We’re approaching the All-Star Game, yet the veteran catcher still has an unbelievably low batting average (.177) to go along with a stellar wRC+ (131). The juxtaposition encapsulates everything useful or wrong about modern baseball, depending on whom you ask.

Regardless, it works because while Grandal does strike out a fair amount, he also walks just as often – at a league-leading rate, in fact. But enough about Grandal. This is all a set up, because really, I want to talk about Christian Yelich. Why is he relevant? Yelich is one of two hitters (min. 150 PA) this season to have both a strikeout and walk rate above 20% – you can guess who the other is. Grandal’s season is, indeed, weird. But under the radar, Yelich is showcasing the same skills necessary for one, albeit without the hideous BABIP.

Focusing on the more positive rate first, it appears that Yelich’s monstrous walk rate is thanks to an ability to lay off unattractive pitches; his chase rate this season ranks in the 98th percentile per Baseball Savant. But here’s what piqued my curiosity. The other day, I stumbled across an article in Reviewing the Brew that suggested Yelich is seeing fewer pitches in the zone since last season. While true in the aggregate, looking at 2020-21 as one chunk prevents us from unearthing a notable truth. Let’s get to the bottom of it. Below is a rolling average graph showing Yelich’s zone rate over time, beginning a couple of years ago:

Consider the roller coaster ride. Before his transformation into a destroyer of baseballs, Yelich saw an above-average rate of strikes. That rate remained stable into his 2018 MVP campaign, perhaps because pitchers were caught off-guard by his late-season tear. The following year, though, they got the memo. In response to Yelich’s newfound might, the graph illustrates how pitchers began to shy away from the zone.

So far, so sensical. What’s interesting, however, is that the downward trend continued into 2020, despite Yelich battling through an extended slump that resulted in the worst season of his career by wRC+. At the very least, he seemed to take advantage of the increasing abundance of balls. As Tony Wolfe pointed out last year, Yelich effectively turned into Joey Gallo by cutting down his swing rate from 45.2% in 2019 to 34.6% in ’20. Unfortunately, his whiff rate – even against in-zone pitches – trended in the wrong direction, pushing up both walks and strikeouts.

Now it’s 2021. As I alluded to earlier, Yelich is still a patient hitter, and his 38.2% swing rate also suggests that he’s retained most of his 2020 self. The difference? His zone rate (48.0%) has skyrocketed this season, to the point where it’s similar to that of previous years (50.8% in 2018).

More strikes, but with the same passive approach – that seems like a recipe for disaster. But as of this writing, Yelich possesses the highest walk rate of his career. He’s managed to shave off a bit of his strikeout rate, too. That’s been possible because of how pitchers have allocated their extra strikes. Here’s a plot of Yelich’s yearly zone rate since 2017 by count type (ahead, even, or behind), from which we can gain some insight:

When Yelich is ahead in the count this season, his zone rate hasn’t seen a significant increase. Maybe pitchers are reluctant to challenge him – their escape is via a surefire strike, which Yelich has crushed multiple times in his career. It’s better to nibble around the edges, I suppose. Elsewhere, though, pitchers have caught on. The strikeout totals aren’t that hideous because Yelich’s contact rates have rebounded somewhat, but they’re still a few ticks below their pre-pandemic norms.

It’s a problem. More than ever, Yelich is having a difficult time defending himself against a barrage of strikes in unfavorable situations. Sean Doolittle, seemingly aware of this, threw a fastball down the middle against Yelich for… strike three.

Look at that smirk. He knows what he did!

But besides that example, how has Yelich responded overall? Compared to 2020, his swing rates are up across all counts. That’s good when he’s behind, and not as good when he’s ahead, though it could be that he’s targeting obvious strikes. Either way, Yelich is earning his walks. Looking at the numbers, however, I began to wonder – should Yelich become even more aggressive when behind? His swing rate in those instances is up, sure. But at 39.8%, it’s still lower than the 48.2% he posted in 2018, the year when he last saw a similar rate of strikes.

Let’s try and evaluate Yelich’s swing decisions using basic game theory. Consider a showdown between him and a pitcher with the count 0-and-1. What should each player strive to accomplish? For the pitcher, the best-case scenario is reaching 0-and-2. Since the start of the Statcast era, batters have recorded a .357 wOBA on 0-and-1; with an additional strike, that number drops precipitously to .166. Missing the zone en route to 1-and-1 isn’t as bad one might think, as batters pick up just 17 points of wOBA. It’s no wonder they’re considered behind.

On the other end, Yelich’s utmost goal is to avoid reaching 0-and-2. But to swing or to take, that is the question. Swinging seems like the most logical option, but there’s a good chance Yelich will end up whiffing or fouling off the pitch. Taking a strike isn’t the end of the world, but there are also obvious balls a hitter should never go after. And what about the borderline pitches that could go either way? Hitting is hard!

Amidst a hairy situation, here’s what I did. Based on Yelich’s contact, whiff, and foul rates this season, I calculated the average value of an in-zone swing in terms of wOBA, as well as an out-of-zone swing. The value of taking a strike or ball was based on the count-based wOBAs I described earlier. With these numbers, I was able to construct a two-by-two payoff matrix, with each cell containing the wOBA loss/gain of the pitcher (left of the comma) and the batter (right of the comma) that’s dependent on the actions taken:

For example, swinging at a strike would net Yelich 38 points of wOBA and lose pitchers the same amount. The latter are offering Yelich a strike 39% of the time in 0-and-1 counts. But is this optimal? For our sake, let’s say optimization means pitchers throw strikes at a rate that makes Yelich indifferent to swinging or taking. In other words, equalizing the payoffs robs him of a preference. Do the math, and it turns out the equilibrium point for pitchers is 35.5% strikes – quite close to their actual rate.

We can also find an equilibrium point for the hitter, Yelich. This time, it’s a matter of making sure pitchers are indifferent to throwing a strike or a ball, and the math suggests Yelich needs to swing 58.6% of the time in pursuit of that goal. Sounds too high? It probably is: I sorted all 0-and-1 pitches into simple strikes or balls, but as mentioned earlier, the reality is that a fair number of balls are flat-out uncompetitive pitches. Disregard them, and Yelich’s ideal swing rate is deflated. Even if we conservatively estimate it as 50%, however, it’s still a far cry from Yelich’s actual swing rate of 39.3% in 0-and-1 counts. Small sample caveats apply – he’s seen 84 of them so far this season – but there’s potential evidence that Yelich is missing out by letting strikes pass by.

Here’s an easier way to think about this. After factoring in zone rate, Yelich is expected to lose 50 points of wOBA by swinging. Taking a pitch loses 66 points, also bad, but which one is the lesser of two evils? You certainly wouldn’t want to swing every time, but faced with these payoffs, swinging a majority of the time makes sense. The math bears out our intuition.

For fun, I repeated the process using Yelich’s ridiculous 2019 output. Ready? To neutralize Yelich, pitchers needed to throw strikes roughly 20% of the time! Nobody would have followed that advice, of course, but it goes to show how terrifying Yelich was. He crushed pitches in the zone. He crushed pitches outside the zone, too, even when behind in the count.

It’s the version of the slugger we lament the disappearance of. But all things considered, it’s been a rough two-or-so years for Yelich. His 2019 campaign came to a premature halt after a knee injury, which then segued into a truncated, strange 2020 season. Mere days into the current season, back issues sent Yelich to the Injured List, where he remained for a month. Expecting him to attack the ball with his former authority is a bit unreasonable. And arguably, Yelich’s reluctance to swing is a precaution against re-aggravating his back.

But as far as adjustments go, raising his aggression to match that of pitchers, who are adhering to both a new and old book on himself, is a simple one. As Yelich recuperates, the various components of his game are likely to come together. It’ll be interesting to observe how he and opposing pitchers adjust against each other over the course of an entire season, engaging in a dance of zero sums. How high will Yelich’s zone rate climb? At what point does he swing enough for pitchers to change course and offer more balls instead? This piece’s title suggests the book on him is fixed. In reality, it’s constantly being updated.

Kevin Goldstein and I have updated the pro portion of the Top 100, which means we quickly reviewed the placement of players in the 50 FV tier and above, and considered who was not yet in those tiers but should be based on how they’ve looked during the first month of the 2021 season. I still have three total org audits to do — Milwaukee, Oakland and the Cubs — before I start peeling graduates off the list. Those will be completed shortly. You can find the updated list here.

Also, if you missed it, Kevin and I updated our draft rankings and posted a Mock Draft on Monday.

The lone change up near the top of the 100 is Riley Greene moving into the top 20; he’s in the mix with several other similarly-aged players with the talent to be consistent All-Stars, like Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodríguez, and Corbin Carroll.

DL Hall moved into the 55 FV tier on the strength of his stuff. He’s still walking a fairly high rate of opposing batters but just on the strength of his three plus pitches, could be a Haderesque relief weapon even if he can’t start. Read the rest of this entry »

These are notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

From games on June 8

Luis Campusano, C, San Diego Padres
Level & Affiliate: Triple-A El Paso  Age: 22   Org Rank: 3   FV: 55
Line: 3-for-4, HR, 2B, BB

Notes
Recall that Campusano was thrust straight into the big leagues from High-A during the bizarre 2020 season, then found himself unexpectedly in the big leagues again early this year when Austin Nola was hurt. Even Campusano’s struggles during his first few weeks settling into Triple-A (remember, this is a 22-year-old whose last full season was in A-ball) are, you know, just a couple of weeks and he’s hitting .296/.387/.556 since the calendar flipped over to June. I’m not inclined to move off of him at all based on a couple of weeks of poor surface-level performance, especially when dry periods of surface performance are common for catchers because of the physical beating they take behind the plate. This is one of the more talented hitting catchers in all of pro baseball, a well-rounded offensive player at a position that might be the thinnest in all the big leagues. If you’re a dynasty fantasy baseball player who plays in a league with people who overreact to small samples or who struggle to put performance in proper context, you should pursue Campusano. Read the rest of this entry »

These are notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Ethan Small, LHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Level & Affiliate: Double-A Biloxi  Age: 24   Org Rank: TBD   FV: 45
Line: 5.2 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 0 R, 8 K

Notes
Small had a sketchy spring with the big club and has walked an uncharacteristically high number of hitters early on this year, but his last couple of starts have been more in line with expectations as he blows his low-90s fastball (which has big time carry) past opposing hitters. Small’s best secondary pitch remains his changeup and there were doubts about him ever finding a competent breaking ball when he was drafted. So far, his slider and curveball remain below average but that there are now two distinct breakers here is meaningful. He still projects as a No. 4/5 starter with a shot to make the back of the Top 100 as a 50 FV if the command and/or breaking balls tighten up. Read the rest of this entry »

These are notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Santiago Florez, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Level & Affiliate: Low-A Bradenton  Age: 21   Org Rank: 36   FV: 40
Line: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 10 K

Notes
We’re starting to enter an uncharted evaluation context for young pitchers. Big league fastbll usage has been trending down over the last several years but breaker-heavy approaches to pitching haven’t been as pervasive in the minors during prospect development. Especially for pitchers like Florez, who are at best on the starter/reliever line, teams generally make an effort to try to develop fastball command that will give the prospect a chance to start. Per Savant, Florez got 20 swings and misses last night, most of them on his curveball, which he threw a ton. Of his 84 pitches, only 27 were fastballs. He threw about a dozen changeups, while the rest (nearly half his total pitches) were curveballs. I have conflicting thoughts around increased breaking ball usage — how much of the improved results generated by more breakers is coming from what is essentially per-pitch stuff quality, how much is from increased unpredictability as we exit the era of “establishing the fastball,” and is there a point where so many breaking balls are being thrown that the unpredictability piece regresses? — but seeing it on a Low-A arm forces me to view his performance in an unfamiliar context as the Pirates have a 21-year-old lean into what he’s already good at rather than try to improve what he’s not. Now, for Florez specifically, taking this approach at this point in his developmental track makes sense because even though he’s only 21, he’s Rule 5 eligible this offseason and a year from now all he and the Pirates may care about is how he gets outs coming out of a big league bullpen, which will feature him throwing a ton of his breaking ball. Read the rest of this entry »

These are notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Adrian Hernandez, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Level & Affiliate: Low-A Dunedin  Age: 21   Org Rank: NR   FV: 35
Line: 3 IP (relief), 1 H, 1 BB, 0 R, 7 K

Notes
The 21-year-old Mexican righty induced 14 swings and misses last night, per BaseballSavant, by far the most in the game and an especially high number for someone who only pitched three innings. Of the 52 pitches Hernandez threw last night, a whopping 24 of them were changeups, which is how he garnered most of those whiffs. Interestingly, Hernandez’s changeup is of the high-spin variety and tends to finish to his glove side, which at first glance made me wonder if it was being labeled correctly by Savant, but this is indeed Hernandez’s changeup and it has been very effective. His strike-throwing has been a bit of an issue this season and there’s little body projection here, but Hernandez is a young-ish arm with an out pitch and viable arm strength, so he’s worth monitoring. Read the rest of this entry »