Archive for Diamondbacks

With a salute to Lucas in the title.

We see it so often. It’s late in a close game, where one swing can make the difference. On the mound is a right-handed pitcher. His identity doesn’t much matter, really. He could have reverse platoon splits for all we know. But if a lefty is due up, you’ll see the manager stroll out of the dugout while pointing to his left arm. On the flip side, you might not see left-handed hitter in the game at all if the opposition has one of its southpaws on the mound.

Managers play the platoon splits constantly, but it seems to affect lefties more than righties. That is, there are a number of right-handed hitters on the vs. RHP splits leader boards. But there are very few lefties that rank among the best at hitting lefties. If you look at the vs. LHP splits from 2009 through 2011, you’ll see the usual list of right-handed hitters. Among them you’ll also see some unsurprising lefties. Chase Utley has fared better than any lefty against LHP in the past three years, and Joey Votto isn’t far behind him. What might surprise you is the name that sits in the 34th spot out of the 150 qualified hitters: Kelly Johnson.

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Every season, there’s always one thing in demand at the trade deadline — starting pitching. Nearly every contender outside of Philadelphia is in the hunt for another rotation arm, and the demand always outstrips the supply. While there’s no Cliff Lee on the block this year, there are still some interesting arms who could make a difference down the stretch. Here are the best candidates:

PLAYER: Edwin Jackson
TEAM: White Sox
POSSIBLE DESTINATION(S): Yankees, Red Sox, Reds
CONTRACT STATUS: $8.35 million, free agent at end of year
PROJECTED WAR: 1.8

The White Sox might end up trading Jackson even if they get back in the race for the AL Central title, as they currently have six starting pitchers for just five slots. Jackson is no stranger to changing teams, as he’s been dealt by Los Angeles, Tampa Bay, Detroit, and Arizona since arriving in the Major Leagues. Given the White Sox surplus of arms and his impending free agency, he’s a good bet to be packing his bags once again.

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The following data is current through 5-30-2011.

If you, dear reader, are like me, then you agonize unnecessarily over every lineup on every team in every game. Aaron Rowand leading off?! Yargh! No! Carlos Gomez batting second for the Brewers?! WRONG. Aaron Miles batting anything?! Unforgivable.

Holding egos constant, inefficiency is the greatest enemy of success. With regards to lineups, however, teams can really only lose a handful of runs over the course of full season, but a handful of runs, in real terms, can mean the difference between the division or a boring October. So it’s a dicey proposition. A mismanaged lineup on the Royals team does not mean a whole lot because they will lose the division by several trillion runs. A few lost runs for the Rays, Yankees, or Red Sox, though, can mean the season.
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The hottest team in baseball are the Arizona Diamondbacks, winners of seven straight and nine of their last 10. Their run has vaulted them into first place in the National League West, and as we head toward June, they head up the list of surprising contenders throughout baseball. How have they managed to go from abysmal failure last year to early season success story this year? Essentially, it comes down to one word — balance.

They aren’t being carried by an MVP candidate having a monster season; in fact, it might be hard to identify who their best player has been this year. Ryan Roberts leads the position players with +1.9 WAR, but the team has also gotten +1.2 WAR or better from the starters at every other position on the field besides first base, and even that “weak spot” is now being manned on a daily basis by Juan Miranda, owner of a .250/.370/.490 batting line.

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From 2006 to 2009, the Arizona Diamondbacks pitching staff was one of the best in the Majors. Last season, however, the staff was in shambles, with Dan Haren’s trade the cherry on the sundae of what was a truly terrible season for Arizona hurlers. As Jack Moore touched on earlier today, the bullpen has pitched much better thus far, and while the rotation has overall been poor and it would be fantastic if Haren in the fold, there are positive signs from the starting rotation.

As of today, three sets of teammates reside in the top 15 in pitching WAR: Roy Halladay (1), Cole Hamels (5) and Cliff Lee (11); Haren (2) and Jered Weaver (4); and Daniel Hudson (10) and Ian Kennedy (13). Hudson in particular has been fantastic, though you wouldn’t know it from his ERA. Despite wearing a .335 BABIP — good for seventh worst among qualified pitchers — Hudson is sporting a 2.52 FIP and 65 FIP-, marks that are both in the top 11 in the Majors. He has done so by improving in a few ways. First, he has upped his ground ball count. He hasn’t suddenly morphed into Derek Lowe, but he has pulled his GB/FB ration to even. Second, he has had some extra life on his fastball, as Mike Podhorzer noted here. His K/9 is also up over last year, and the combination of more strikeouts and more ground balls has led to fewer home runs allowed. His walks have ticked up a bit as well, as has his WHIP, but if his BABIP stabilizes, his WHIP should drop along with it.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks entered 2010 as one of the most intriguing teams in the majors. Showcasing a rotation led by Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson (and with Brandon Webb potentially waiting in the wings) and a fantastically talented young offense including Justin Upton, Chris Young, and Mark Reynolds, there was reason to believe the Diamondbacks could compete with the beasts of the West. Instead, the bullpen failed them, as such names as Juan Gutierrez, Chad Qualls, and Esmerling Vasquez combined to post a 5.47 ERA along with a historically bad -10 WPA (Win Probability Added) and sink any dreams Arizona had of respectability, much less competition.

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It happens every year. A manager gets an itchy trigger finger early in the season and buries a guy before he even gets a chance to earn the faith the manager put in him to start the season. This year is no different, and with an idea sparked from Eric Seidman’s piece yesterday on Brad Emaus — an article that the Mets completely ignored when they waived him today — I present the 2011 Brad Emaus All-Stars.
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If someone told you Justin Upton would finally make the jump to “superstardom” this season, you may have been slightly hesitant to believe them. After all, Upton is coming off a somewhat disappointing season, in which his home runs dropped from 26 to 17 and his strikeout rate rose to an alarming 30.7%. Though his 3.1 WAR was still solid, it’s fair to say his future looked a lot brighter following his 2009 season. Upton has gotten off to a great start this season, and there’s evidence that suggests his strong start is sustainable. Perhaps this could be the year Upton fulfills his lofty expectations and becomes one of the best players in baseball.
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The first ten games of Justin Upton ‘s age 23 season have gone pretty well. Through his first 46 plate appearances, Arizona’s prodigy has a .300/.391/.575 triple-slash line and a .411 wOBA. This comes even without the ever-present sky-high BABIPs that tend to characterize early season success. Instead, Upton’s BABIP sits at .290, well below his career average of .343. Upton’s success is coming with walks, heavy doses of contact, and Power.

That’s Power with a capital P. Upton hit his third home run of the season last night off Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter. It went far.

(Click to embiggen, click this for video)

According to HitTracker, Upton’s bomb traveled 478 feet, the best of the young season by 16 feet.

This kind of elite power was missing from Upton’s 2010 season, where he posted a rather human .349 wOBA and 3.1 WAR. As annoying as the small sample size caveat can be early in a season, I’m not invoking it for this year’s numbers. Instead, I prefer to give a reminder that power numbers barely even stabilize over the course of a full season. The numbers presented by Eric in that link say that SLG only stabilizes after 500 PAs and ISO after 550, a number that Upton barely passed in 2010 (571 total PAs).

Upton isn’t likely to continue to homer on one out of every four fly balls he hits, but mammoth shots like the one above tell us that his true talent probably isn’t too different from the 2009 season, when he posted a .232 ISO and 26 home runs in just under 600 PAs. And, of course, at only 23 years of age, there’s plenty of room for growth as well.

The other thing to watch for Upton as his year continues is his strikeout rate. So far, through 46 plate appearances, Upton has only struck out in 15% of his at-bats, nearly half his career rate. It only takes 150 plate appearances for strikeout rate to begin to stabilize, so we should be able to get a good beat on Upton’s progress in three weeks or so. The strikeout rate is the last thing keeping Upton from moving into the truly elite tier of hitters – just imagine what a player with that kind of power could do if he made contact on 80% of his at-bats instead of 70%. Upton didn’t get much experience in the high minors, but in the low minors, he had strikeout rates hovering around 20% instead of 30%, so it’s possible that his development in the majors could lead to a lower strikeout rate this year.

Hopefully one slightly down year as a 22-year-old Major Leaguer didn’t fool anybody. Justin Upton is here to stay, and he should be an MLB force for years to come. With what we’re already seeing from him at such a young age, we shouldn’t be surprised if Upton continues to impress with his power and with his other tools as well.

Starting today, FanGraphs is offering a season preview for each team in baseball. We’ll begin with the NL West and do three teams each day. Check back later for our thoughts on the Giants and Rockies, and stay tuned over the next few weeks where we break down each team’s chances in 2011.

After dealing Dan Haren to the Angels during the 2010 season, the Diamondbacks have gone into full rebuilding mode under new General Manager Kevin Towers. The team traded Mark Reynolds, but much of the relatively young talent which keyed Arizona’s powerful offense remains. Towers has surrounded that young talent with aging veterans, ostensibly hoping to use 2011 as a season for the young guns to learn how to win from the older guys. Unfortunately, much like last year, the Diamondbacks roster doesn’t project to do much winning this season.

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