Three years ago, seven major-league position players who had yet to reach salary arbitration agreed to contracts with their teams, conceding multiple free-agent seasons in the process. Most of those deals have turned into bargains: Matt Carpenter, Jason Kipnis, Starling Marte, and Mike Trout have all played at a high level since then. This came one year after Paul Goldschmidt and Anthony Rizzo signed contracts that have proved to be incredibly valuable, as well.
In the last two years, however, just four players have signed similar extensions. There are quite a few potential reasons, the most likely being that players are more reluctant to sign deals that give away free agency so easily. It’s also possible that teams haven’t found as many potential candidates who are worthy of a long-term investment.
When I looked at potential extension candidates last year, I noted that there weren’t a great many players who were ideally suited for extensions. Only Gregory Polanco and Kolten Wong ultimately signed extensions, so my hypothesis seems to have been accurate. Teams have made up somewhat for lost time this winter, though, as players like Ender Inciarte, Carlos Martinez, and Wil Myers — all of whom were mentioned as candidates last year — reached extensions this offseason. The guarantees doled out by the teams — in particular, the $83 million to Wil Myers and the $51 million to Carlos Martinez — illustrate why signing players to extensions before they reach free agency is much more advantageous for the teams. While the deals for Myers and Martinez could still prove to be bargains, compare the figures they received to the deals signed by position players in the three previous offseasons.
Pre-Arbitration Contract Extensions Since 2014
Name |
PA |
OBP |
SLG |
wRC+ |
WAR |
Service Time |
Contract Terms* |
Mike Trout |
1490 |
.404 |
.544 |
164 |
21.5 |
2.070 |
6/144.5 |
Matt Carpenter |
1076 |
.381 |
.470 |
137 |
8.3 |
2.012 |
6/52.0, 1 |
Christian Yelich |
933 |
.365 |
.400 |
118 |
5.8 |
1.069 |
7/49.6, 1 |
Andrelton Simmons |
840 |
.304 |
.400 |
94 |
6.6 |
1.125 |
7/58.0 |
Starling Marte |
748 |
.332 |
.440 |
117 |
5.8 |
1.070 |
5/35.0, 2 |
Jason Kipnis |
1480 |
.349 |
.424 |
115 |
8.7 |
2.075 |
6/52.5, 1 |
Yan Gomes |
433 |
.324 |
.453 |
112 |
3.1 |
1.083 |
6/23.0, 2 |
Adam Eaton |
918 |
.350 |
.390 |
108 |
3.2 |
2.030 |
5/23.5, 2 |
Jedd Gyorko |
525 |
.301 |
.444 |
109 |
2.4 |
1.016 |
6/35.0, 1 |
Kolten Wong |
1108 |
.303 |
.374 |
88 |
3.8 |
2.045 |
5/25.5, 1 |
Gregory Polanco |
964 |
.316 |
.369 |
92 |
2.6 |
1.103 |
5/35, 2 |
Odubel Herrera |
1193 |
.353 |
.419 |
111 |
7.8 |
2.000 |
5/30.5, 2 |
*Year/$M, Options
Note: Herrera’s was signed this winter.
All of these players signed away two — or, in some cases, three — years of free agency in exchange for a decent guaranteed contract. While a couple years might seem like just a small delay to free agency, teams generally received a 60% surplus on every dollar invested in contracts like these, and the recent extensions seem unlikely to break that pattern.
Most of these guarantees are around $30 million or so, which is significantly less than the deals for Myers and Martinez that were signed one year along in service time. Players take a significant risk by turning down money between their second year and third year in the league, as they have to play that season on a near-minimum salary. Once they hit arbitration and benefit from the security that comes along with a million-dollar contract, there’s less incentive to take a guarantee, especially with free agency just a few years away.
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