SEATTLE — “We didn’t steal one. We earned it.” Those were the first words spoken by Tigers manager A.J. Hinch following Game 1 of the ALDS at T-Mobile Park on Saturday night. Hinch took umbrage with a reporter’s characterization of a 3-2 victory that spanned 11 innings in a road ballpark as “stealing one.” Managers should bring that type of bravado to the press conference. Especially Hinch, who is tasked with imbuing confidence in a squad that has been dogged by tales of its epic collapse for over a month.

But with all due respect to Hinch, to describe any one-run, extra-inning game as one where either team definitively earned the win, or on the flip side deserved to lose, places all the emphasis on the final result and glosses over exactly how that result came to be. The Tigers got the win, and now they enjoy a 1-0 series lead with Tarik Skubal, the reigning (and presumptive) AL Cy Young award winner, taking the mound for them in Game 2. They get to bask in the glow of that advantage, and they absolutely should. But if Hinch gets to quibble with verbiage, so do I. Read the rest of this entry »

Did you know that Tarik Skubal attended Seattle University? What’s that? You knew it already? Oh. Well, that’s great. Kudos to you for doing the research. I hope you are prepared to have that one fact bludgeoned so deeply into your brain over the next week that decades hence, when all the other thoughts start falling out of your aged skull, it will be all that remains. “Seattle Redhawks, only D-I program to offer him a scholarship,” you’ll mutter over and over like a protective spell as you putter through the halls of the nursing home. After defeating the Cleveland Guardians in the Wild Card round, the Detroit Tigers are headed to Seattle for the American League Divisional series. Tarik Skubal is coming home. Let’s get to the preview.

With the second-best record in the American League, the rested Seattle Mariners certainly look to be the clear favorite. They’ve got three (or maybe four) great starters lined up. They’ve got a top-10 bullpen by both ERA and FIP. Their team 113 wRC+ gives them the third-best offense in baseball. They finished the season by winning 17 of their last 21 games. On the other hand, it’s worth noting that all 17 of those wins came against non-playoff teams. Before that 21-game stretch started, the Mariners lost four straight, also to non-playoff teams. Their final act of the regular season was getting swept at home by the Dodgers. The Mariners finished the season with just three more wins than the Tigers and a run differential advantage of just five runs. Their Pythagorean records are identical. These teams are not as different as you may think.

During the Wild Card round, the Tigers were forced to empty their bag of tricks in order to hold off a Guardians team that stole the AL Central crown from under their noses. They relied on their ace, they coaxed just enough great relief performances out of a less-than-great bullpen, they played small ball, they induced errors, they bafflingly pinch-hit for their best hitter. During Game 3, they even got desperate enough to try scoring some runs. Will they come into the ALDS depleted, or will they finally regain the swagger they had when they went into the All-Star break with the best record in baseball? Read the rest of this entry »

SEATTLE — Every year, pitchers and catchers report for spring training, and just as spring represents a reawakening in the natural world, spring training provides a reawakening for every team, a fresh start, full of renewed optimism. No matter the team, fans across the league allow themselves to dream a little, to believe that this year might be the one.

You could be my silver springs
Blue-green colors flashin’
I would be your only dream
Your shining autumn, ocean crashing.

But for 29 teams, the season will end in heartbreak. For some teams that heartbreak might come as early as June or July, for others in August or September, and a few will experience the agony of October sorrow. Over the last several years, the Seattle Mariners have unwittingly built a tradition of remaining very much in the playoff hunt until the final week of the regular season, only to miss the cut by a harrowingly thin margin. They did make the playoffs in 2022, ending a 20-year postseason drought, but they struggled to cross that threshold again. Instead, they fell into a familiar rhythm, playing hard until the very end, but then their season was over. Their time was up.

Time cast its spell on you, but you won’t forget me
I know I could have loved you, but you would not let me.

This season is different. The Mariners not only secured a place in the postseason, but they also won the AL West for the first time since 2001. In doing so, they eschewed the Wild Card Series and advanced directly to the best-of-five Division Series, which begins on Saturday against the Tigers in Seattle. And all it took was a little witchcraft. Read the rest of this entry »

Dansby Swanson brought home back-to-back Gold Gloves in 2022 with the Braves and ’23 with the Cubs while leading the majors in Statcast’s Fielding Run Value in both seasons. Although he hasn’t added any hardware to his collection since then, and while his defensive metrics have slipped, he still grades out as comfortably above average in both FRV and Defensive Runs Saved. His defensive acumen was on display in Tuesday’s Wild Card Series opener between the Cubs and Padres, as he made a couple of pivotal, run-saving plays in Chicago’s 3-1 victory.

The Padres had taken the lead in the second inning, when Jackson Merrill and Xander Bogaerts opened the frame with back-to-back doubles off Matthew Boyd; Bogaerts took third when center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong’s relay spurted away from Nico Hoerner at second base. Ryan O’Hearn then hit a sizzling 101-mph groundball, and Swanson, who was shaded up the middle, dove to his right to stop it. He looked Bogaerts back to third base, then threw to first for the out. The play loomed large as Bogaerts ended up stranded.

The Padres threatened again in the fourth, when Manny Machado drew a leadoff walk and took second on Merrill’s sacrifice bunt. Bogaerts legged out a chopper into the no-man’s land to the right of the mound for an infield single, and San Diego appeared poised to capitalize when O’Hearn hit a flare into shallow center field. Swanson had other ideas, making a great over-the-shoulder snag of the ball, then in one motion turning to fire home to keep Machado honest.

Read the rest of this entry »

He did it! Cal Raleigh launched his 60th home run of the season last night, joining a rare club of elite sluggers. In hitting 60 so quickly, he’s left himself with a chance to match Aaron Judge’s American League record of 62, or perhaps even surpass it. With four games left in the season, how likely is it? I fired up my computer to ask. As a refresher, last week I modeled Raleigh’s home run hitting talent, the parks he’ll play in, and his scheduled opposition to work out which side of the plate he’ll hit from and how likely he is to hit a home run in any given plate appearance the rest of the way. Then I simulated the season a million times to work out the probability of each milestone. Read the rest of this entry »

Cal Raleigh is hot. Thumping three homers in a span of two days has put Big Dumper at 56 on the season with 11 games left to play. That binge gives him a realistic shot at hitting a nice round 60 on the season, a threshold that only an elite few sluggers have ever reached. He’s doing it as a catcher, which is absurd. He left the old single-season home run record for catchers in the dust a long time ago.

As I learned all the way back in first grade, 62 is only two more than 60. Given Raleigh’s predilection for blasting bombs in bunches – he hit six in six games earlier this year, and nine in a separate 11-game stretch – Aaron Judge’s single-season AL home run record (and for some people, though not me, the “true” home run record) is definitely in play.

As is tradition at FanGraphs, when someone goes for a home run milestone, we forecast when it might happen. Whether it’s Judge’s quest for 62, Albert Pujols’ push for 700, or Shohei Ohtani’s bid for 50/50, it’s fun and useful to predict when the actual milestone game will occur. I’ll start with the methodology, but if you’re not into that, there are some tables down below that will give you an idea of when and where Raleigh might hit either his 60th, 62nd, or 63rd homer.

I started with our Depth Charts projection for Raleigh’s home run rate the rest of the way. That’s based on neutral opposition, so I also accounted for park factors and opposition. Since Raleigh is a switch-hitter, I used the specific pitchers the Mariners are expected to face to determine whether he starts each game batting lefty or righty, and also used those pitchers’ home run rate projections to determine opponent strength. I used a blend of projected starter, home run rate, and observed bullpen home run rate to come up with a strength of opposition estimate. That let me create a unique home run environment for each game. I also told the computer to randomly select how many plate appearances Raleigh receives each game, with an average of five most likely but some chance of four or six. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. That title is quite a mouthful. Every time I submit it, our helpful back end interface informs me that it is “far too long.” You’re not wrong, WordPress. But I lifted the title and the inspiration for this column from Zach Lowe’s basketball feature of the same name, and every time I consider removing the parenthetical part of it, I remember that the frustrations and failures of the game are part of what makes baseball so compelling. If you never disliked anything about sports, they wouldn’t be so fun to follow. So while every item this week involves something I liked, they also all contain an element of something I didn’t care for. Missed plays, bobbled balls, artificially abbreviated outings, below-average defensive units, lengthy injury recoveries – there are things to dislike in each of these. They all brought me extreme joy anyway, though. Let’s get going.

1. Relatable Frustration
Mike Yastrzemski has been everything the Royals could have hoped for since he joined the team at the trade deadline. He leads off against righties, gets platooned against lefties, and plays his habitual right field. He’s been the team’s second-best hitter behind Bobby Witt Jr., a huge boon as they chase slim playoff odds. Also, when he goofs something up, his reactions are very relatable:

You can see what happened there right away. Yaz’s first step was in, but the ball was actually over his head, and tailing towards the foul line so strongly that he couldn’t reach it. Sure, it was only his second start of the year in left field. Sure, he hasn’t played left for more than a handful of games since 2019. And sure, the ball had plenty of slice on it. But he’d probably tell you the same thing you’re thinking: Major league outfielders, particularly solid ones like Yastrzemski, should make that play. Read the rest of this entry »

Direct links to applications (please see job details below):

2026 Baseball Operations Intern
2026 Data Science Intern
2026 Baseball Projects Intern

2026 Baseball Operations Intern

Department: Baseball Operations
Reports To: Vice President, Baseball Administration
Status: Hourly, Non-exempt

Timeline: Preference will be given to candidates who can start by March 2, 2026 and work through Mid-October 2026.
Primary Objective: Responsible for coordination, support, and assistance to the Baseball Operations department in research, administration, and day-to-day scouting operation tasks.

Essential Functions:

• Support all areas of the Pro and Amateur Scouting departments, including player evaluation, research, video clipping, and preparation for the Amateur Draft meetings.
• Provide support in Advance Scouting, including preparation of the Major League Advance Scouting report.
• Provide additional statistical analysis, economic, and financial research as assigned.
• Will perform other duties as assigned.

Education and Experience:

• Bachelor’s degree preferred. Equivalent relevant work or playing experience may be considered in lieu of formal education if approved by management.
• Basic Spanish proficiency is preferred.
• Background in player evaluation is preferred.
• Background in video preparation is preferred. 

Competencies, Knowledge, Skills and Abilities (KSA’s):

• Working knowledge of statistical baseball data and its application as it pertains to scouting information and baseball strategy.
• Proficiency in Microsoft Excel and PowerPoint.
• Authentic and Aware: Exemplifies the highest standards of professionalism and ethics, demonstrating a dedication to doing the right thing and treating everyone with respect. Is self-aware and open to feedback, ability to speak the truth with a positive intent, foster a culture of honesty and builds trust with the team. Commitment to the organization’s mission is evident in both words and actions, aligned to actively contribute to the fulfillment of organizational goals. 
• Communicate and Collaborate: Values others and their views, actively engaging and partnering with team members. Seeks clarity and shares information transparently, fostering a collaborative environment while influencing others and aligning support. Excels in seeking out and leveraging the right resources, engaging in teamwork with a positive and productive approach. Whether verbally or in writing, communicates in a clear and constructive manner, contributing to an engaged and efficient workplace. 
• Execute with Purpose: Takes action and demonstrates accountability, leading with a sense of urgency and dedication to achieving results. Sets and meets challenging expectations for themselves and others, making timely, data-driven decisions and taking ownership of outcomes. Approachable, engaged, and committed; sets a positive tone and cares deeply about the organization. Manages time, priorities, and resources effectively, aiming for and achieving excellence. 
• Adapt and Innovate: Acts boldly, fosters innovation, and supports transformational change. Leveraging analysis and insights, develops new directions and solutions, identifying opportunities for improvement and displaying a commitment to fixing them. With an ongoing commitment to learning and self-development, overcomes challenges constructively and adjusts effectively to shifting priorities and rapid change. This approach contributes to a dynamic work environment focused on progress and continuous improvement. 
• Competent in required job skills and knowledge. Completes work assignments thoroughly and completely in an accurate and prompt manager. Identifies and corrects errors. Is careful, alert, and accurate, paying attention to details of the job.

The Mariners are committed to providing competitive pay, perks, and benefits packages for our valued Team Members. The anticipated starting pay for this role is $22 per hour.

This information is being provided in accordance with the Washington State Equal Pay and Opportunity Act.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

2026 Data Science Intern

Department: Baseball Operations
Reports To: Manager, Data Science
Status: Hourly, Non-exempt

Timeline: Preference will be given to candidates who can start by March 1, 2026 or sooner, and work through mid-October 2026.
Primary Objective: Responsible for supporting all areas of baseball operations through baseball-related data science, including statistical modeling, research, visualizations, and other projects.

Essential Functions:

• Statistical modeling and analysis of a variety of data sources including Trackman, Hawkeye, and proprietary data sets.
• Ad hoc queries and quantitative research.
• Will perform other duties as assigned.

Education and Experience:

• Bachelor’s degree preferred. Public research and work experience may be considered in lieu of education requirements if approved by management.
• A strong foundation in mathematics, statistics, computer science, and/or engineering required.
• Proficiency in programming with either R, Python or Julia required.
• Proficiency with SQL preferred.
• Track record of original baseball research preferred.
• Experience building and interpreting predictive models preferred. 

Competencies, Knowledge, Skills and Abilities (KSA’s):

• Strong technical skills in predictive modeling, data analysis, and research.
• Authentic and Aware: Exemplifies the highest standards of professionalism and ethics, demonstrating a dedication to doing the right thing and treating everyone with respect. Is self-aware and open to feedback, ability to speak the truth with a positive intent, foster a culture of honesty and builds trust with the team. Commitment to the organization’s mission is evident in both words and actions, aligned to actively contribute to the fulfillment of organizational goals. 
• Communicate and Collaborate: Values others and their views, actively engaging and partnering with team members. Seeks clarity and shares information transparently, fostering a collaborative environment while influencing others and aligning support. Excels in seeking out and leveraging the right resources, engaging in teamwork with a positive and productive approach. Whether verbally or in writing, communicates in a clear and constructive manner, contributing to an engaged and efficient workplace. 
• Execute with Purpose: Takes action and demonstrates accountability, leading with a sense of urgency and dedication to achieving results. Sets and meets challenging expectations for themselves and others, making timely, data-driven decisions and taking ownership of outcomes. Approachable, engaged, and committed; sets a positive tone and cares deeply about the organization. Manages time, priorities, and resources effectively, aiming for and achieving excellence. 
• Adapt and Innovate: Acts boldly, fosters innovation, and supports transformational change. Leveraging analysis and insights, develops new directions and solutions, identifying opportunities for improvement and displaying a commitment to fixing them. With an ongoing commitment to learning and self-development, overcomes challenges constructively and adjusts effectively to shifting priorities and rapid change. This approach contributes to a dynamic work environment focused on progress and continuous improvement. 

The Mariners are committed to providing competitive pay, perks, and benefits packages for our valued Team Members. The anticipated starting pay for this role is $22 per hour.

This information is being provided in accordance with the Washington State Equal Pay and Opportunity Act.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

2026 Baseball Projects Intern

Department: Baseball Operations
Reports To: Director, Baseball Projects
Status: Hourly, Non-exempt

Timeline: March 1, 2026 through mid-October 2026. Flexible timeline (12-week duration) for candidates enrolled in college.
Primary Objective: Responsible for contributing to technical projects at the intersection of baseball analytics and broader baseball operations, with an emphasis on creating innovative tools & streamlining communications.

Essential Functions:

• Develop reports, software, and educational materials to facilitate evidence-based decision-making throughout broader baseball operations.
• Provide quantitative support to player plan, high performance, advance scouting, and other player improvement processes.
• Contribute to amateur & professional player acquisition decisions in both formal & informal contexts.
• Fulfill ad hoc requests from coaches, scouts, and other staff about internal metrics & processes.
• Will perform other duties as assigned.

Education and Experience:

• Bachelor’s degree preferred. Equivalent, relevant experience may be considered in lieu of education requirements if approved by management.
• Proficiency handling large datasets in R, SQL, Python, and/or comparable languages is required.
• Shiny application or other web development experience is preferred.
• Experience building predictive models is a plus, but not required.
• Knowledge of motion analysis and biomechanics is a plus, but not required.
• Ability to communicate in Spanish is a plus, but not required.  

Competencies, Knowledge, Skills and Abilities (KSA’s):

• Strong problem-solving abilities with attention to detail in a fast-paced working environment.
• Knowledge of baseball rules and passion for baseball innovation.
• Authentic and Aware: Exemplifies the highest standards of professionalism and ethics, demonstrating a dedication to doing the right thing and treating everyone with respect. Is self-aware and open to feedback, ability to speak the truth with a positive intent, foster a culture of honesty and builds trust with the team. Commitment to the organization’s mission is evident in both words and actions, aligned to actively contribute to the fulfillment of organizational goals. 
• Communicate and Collaborate: Values others and their views, actively engaging and partnering with team members. Seeks clarity and shares information transparently, fostering a collaborative environment while influencing others and aligning support. Excels in seeking out and leveraging the right resources, engaging in teamwork with a positive and productive approach. Whether verbally or in writing, communicates in a clear and constructive manner, contributing to an engaged and efficient workplace. 
• Execute with Purpose: Takes action and demonstrates accountability, leading with a sense of urgency and dedication to achieving results. Sets and meets challenging expectations for themselves and others, making timely, data-driven decisions and taking ownership of outcomes. Approachable, engaged, and committed; sets a positive tone and cares deeply about the organization. Manages time, priorities, and resources effectively, aiming for and achieving excellence. 
• Adapt and Innovate: Acts boldly, fosters innovation, and supports transformational change. Leveraging analysis and insights, develops new directions and solutions, identifying opportunities for improvement and displaying a commitment to fixing them. With an ongoing commitment to learning and self-development, overcomes challenges constructively and adjusts effectively to shifting priorities and rapid change. This approach contributes to a dynamic work environment focused on progress and continuous improvement. 

The Mariners are committed to providing competitive pay, perks, and benefits packages for our valued Team Members. The anticipated starting pay for this role is $22 per hour.

This information is being provided in accordance with the Washington State Equal Pay and Opportunity Act.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Seattle Mariners.

The Mariners entered the season with a starting rotation that was the envy of nearly every other team in baseball, with four young homegrown pitchers in Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo, and Luis Castillo as the veteran ace to lead the group. Our preseason projections had Seattle’s rotation as the seventh best in baseball, only held back by its lack of depth behind the top five starters. Three of those young starters appeared on Ben Clemens’ midseason Trade Value list, ranked 23rd (Kirby), 34th (Woo), and 36th (Gilbert). The M’s rotation has been the key to their success over the last few years, but lately, that same highly regarded group has been the weakest link for the Mariners as they fight to maintain a playoff spot.

Since the All-Star break, Seattle’s rotation has put up a 4.55 ERA and a 4.27 FIP, 19th and 16th in the majors, respectively. It’s been even worse over the last 30 days: a 4.94 ERA (20th) and a 4.66 FIP (21st). Kirby has allowed seven or more runs in two of his last four starts, and was knocked around for 10 hits and eight runs (seven earned) in two innings in his start against the Rays on Wednesday. Castillo has allowed five or more runs in three of his last four starts. Gilbert suffered through an ugly six-run blowup in Philadelphia a few weeks ago. Miller is sporting a 5.63 ERA since being activated off the IL on August 19. Even the metronomic Woo had his streak of 25 starts of at least six innings snapped on August 27.

These problems becomes even more stark when you compare their performance inside the confines of the extremely pitcher friendly T-Mobile Park to their struggles on the road. This season at home, the rotation is putting up a 3.40 ERA and a 3.82 FIP, fourth and ninth best in the majors, respectively. On the road, those marks drop to a 4.69 ERA (26th) and 4.44 (22nd). The Mariners have a 32-40 record on the road this year, and these pitching issues are a big reason why.

All of these struggles are showing up in the standings, too. The M’s are 22-22 during the second half, but since a 9-1 homestand to start the month of August, they’re 7-14, with four of those seven wins coming at home. Seattle has had two long East Coast road trips during this stretch, which have included sweeps by the Phillies and Rays, and a combined 3-12 record with three more games to play in Atlanta this weekend. Despite all this, the M’s currently hold the final AL Wild Card spot, just 1.5 games ahead of the Rangers and 3.5 games behind the Astros in the AL West.

It’s worth noting that three of the Mariners’ starters have spent a significant amount of time on the IL this year: Kirby was sidelined during spring training with a shoulder injury and wound up missing nearly two months of the season; Gilbert missed all of May and half of June with a flexor strain in his elbow; and Miller has had two separate IL stints due to inflammation in his elbow stemming from a bone spur. Seattle’s starters have thrown the most innings in baseball since the beginning of the 2022 season, and it’s possible that heavy workload over these past few years is catching up with them.

Here’s how the performance of the team’s five starters has changed from the first half to the second half:

It’s at least a little encouraging to see that the peripherals for Kirby and Gilbert look solid during the second half, even if their top line results have suffered. There are some red flags for Woo and Castillo, however; the former is 20 innings past his previous career high set last year and the latter is showing some worrying signs of fatigue. I think it’s worthwhile to take a closer look at Kirby, Gilbert and Castillo, and try to see what might be causing their issues and if there’s any hope of a turnaround in the final month of the season.

It’s been a really up-and-down season for Kirby. Maybe because of the shoulder injury, he’s never really looked like he’s settled in since being activated off the IL. The biggest clue he hasn’t been feeling like himself is his walk rate. From his debut in 2022 through the end of 2024, Kirby had exactly two starts where he allowed three walks; this year, he’s already had five starts where he’s allowed three walks. His walk rate has nearly doubled, though when it’s going from 3.0% to 5.9%, it’s still an above-average mark compared to the league.

I have a hunch that his command issues stem from a pretty significant change to his arm angle. Kirby had been throwing from a pretty standard three-quarters arm slot for his entire career, but it suddenly dropped eight degrees this year. I’m not sure if that change in mechanics stemmed from his shoulder injury — it’s possible he’s compensating for a still slightly damaged shoulder by dropping his arm slot, or that his body found a new “natural” arm slot during his rehab. Whatever the cause, the new mechanics have had a pretty dramatic effect on the characteristics of his pitches. Here’s what a few of Kirby’s key physical metrics look like for his four-seam fastball:

His heater lost some raw carry (IVB), but it gained a much flatter approach angle and now sits well outside the fastball “dead zone.” The results the pitch is generating haven’t changed all that much; Kirby is still garnering a whiff more than a quarter of the time, and the expected wOBA allowed off of his fastball is right around his career norms. But he’s throwing the pitch in the strike zone just 51.6% of the time, down from 53.2% last year and 58.0% in 2023.

Along with a flatter fastball, a lower arm angle has given Kirby’s entire arsenal a lot more horizontal movement. His slider is moving three inches more to his glove side and his curveball has an extra inch of break. His sinker and splitter both have a bunch more arm-side movement as well. That break has definitely benefitted his breaking balls, as both are running career-high whiff rates. Kirby has struggled to find a consistent breaking ball he can use to earn those swings-and-misses, and it finally looks like he’s got two of them.

Unfortunately, the new arm slot seems to have caused Kirby to ditch his splitter. He added that pitch in 2023 in an effort to find an offspeed offering to use against left-handed batters, and it’s been an important piece of his arsenal since then. He was throwing his split like normal in May when he first returned from his shoulder injury, but quickly ditched it after his second start in favor of a changeup. The new offspeed pitch is coming in a little harder than the splitter, with less drop and more arm-side break. Batters are having trouble putting the new changeup in play with any authority — it has a .155 expected wOBA — but its 11.1% whiff rate leaves a lot to be desired when compared to the near 30% whiff rate the splitter had.

It’s fair to wonder if all these changes to his mechanics and pitch shapes have caused Kirby’s usually pinpoint command to waver a bit as he gets used to his new norm. It’s also possible that he’s just been the victim of some really poor luck; his peripherals all look pretty solid, with his 3.56 FIP nearly a run lower than his 4.47 ERA. All his other ERA estimators — a 3.52 xFIP, a 3.69 SIERA, and a 4.10 xERA — point to some improvement to come as well.

Kirby isn’t the only starter on the Mariners whose mechanics have undergone a dramatic change this year: Gilbert has dropped his arm angle from a high, over-the-top delivery to a three-quarters arm slot. Mikey Ajeto detailed this change in a piece for Baseball Prospectus back in June, writing:

Gilbert’s fastball has gotten flatter, and his splitter steeper. Now his fastball is flatter than the average fastball, and his splitter is not only steeper than the average splitter, it’s getting forkball depth. Now he’s throwing strikes again with his fastball, and his splitter is one of the deadliest two-strike pitches in MLB.

Among all pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched, Gilbert leads the way in strikeout rate at 34.2%. And like Kirby, his ERA is half a run higher than his FIP, though his issue is a little easier to pinpoint. His 2.64 xFIP tells you almost everything you need to know: Gilbert is allowing far too many home runs despite all those swings and misses.

Interestingly, it’s not his fastball that’s the culprit. The flatter approach angle has helped him tone down the damage allowed off his heater. Instead, it’s Gilbert’s slider that’s causing some of these issues. The breaking ball is still generating plenty of whiffs, but when batters put the pitch in play, they’re crushing it. He’s allowed a .719 slug and a .445 expected wOBA with the breaker, which means that even though batters whiff against it more than a third of the time, it’s returned a negative run value this year.

Like the rest of his repertoire, the slider’s physical shape has changed with Gilbert’s lower arm slot. It’s a near perfect gyro slider, but this year, it has slightly less drop and a bit less horizontal break. We’re talking a half inch difference in both directions, but that could be enough to throw off Gilbert’s location with the pitch. Here’s a heat map of his slider locations this year:

Right down the heart of the plate isn’t the ideal location for a slider. If he’s throwing his breaking ball expecting it to drop an extra half inch, those locations could make a little more sense. He just hasn’t made the adjustment to his target yet and continues to leave those breaking balls in a very dangerous part of the zone.

As for Castillo, the issue is pretty easy to spot:

Castillo’s fastball velocity was right around 95 mph for most of the season, not too dramatically different from where it was last year and in 2023. But in August, his fastball was suddenly averaging 94 mph, and his ERA ballooned to 7.31 with the diminished velocity. Castillo’s heater has been his primary weapon since joining the Mariners, a pretty significant change from his time with the Reds, when his changeup was his best pitch. With Seattle, he has emphasized the hard stuff at the expense of the offspeed pitch, but that’s become a liability in these last seven starts with the lost velocity:

Batters were already hitting Castillo’s fastball pretty well earlier in the season, but he was mostly mitigating the damage. Since his July 28 start, however, his fastball has been getting crushed. He’s responded by throwing his sinker and slider a bit more often, but his sinker gets hit almost as hard as his four-seamer without the potential for swings and misses.

Castillo has been a durable and very effective starter for most of his career, but he’s suddenly facing a future with a diminished version of one of his best weapons. I’m not sure simply changing up his pitch mix to feature more sinkers is the answer either. I think he’s going to need to lean on his secondary pitches a lot more heavily to succeed; his slider is an excellent breaking ball and his changeup is largely unchanged from its peak with Cincinnati. I’m not sure if Castillo can make a switch to his approach in time to salvage the rest of this season, but I’m sure it will be one of the top priorities for the Mariners’ pitching lab this offseason.

For all their recent issues, the Mariners rotation still possesses a tremendous amount of talent. Both Kirby and Gilbert seem like they’ve been victims of some bad luck even as they try to navigate new pitching mechanics. Woo has continued to look fantastic despite running up against some workload concerns. Castillo and Miller have some big question marks going forward, and you’d think that one or both of them would be relegated to the bullpen in a potential playoff series. And for what it’s worth, our Depth Charts projections think the Mariners will have the third-best rotation in baseball for the remainder of the regular season. They’ll need all that talent to show up over these next few weeks as they fight for their spot in a tight AL playoff race.

The Rangers really can’t catch a break. Just after I wrote about Nathan Eovaldi’s sneaky great season, the 35-year-old righty briefly took over the official AL ERA lead. Before he could make another start, however, the Rangers announced that Eovaldi would likely miss the remainder of the season due to a rotator cuff strain. As if losing their most effective starting pitcher wasn’t enough, the Rangers also announced on Thursday that Corey Seager, their top hitter, had undergone an appendectomy, putting the rest of his season in doubt.

With his seven-inning, nine-strikeout, one-run effort against the Guardians last Friday, Eovaldi lowered his ERA to 1.73 in 130 innings, exactly enough to qualify based on the Rangers’ 130 games to that point. With that, he snuck ahead of Tarik Skubal (2.32), Hunter Brown (2.36) and Garrett Crochet (2.46) on the AL leaderboard, completing a game of catch-up caused primarily by his missing nearly all of June due to posterior elbow inflammation. Unfortunately, post-start soreness led Eovaldi to shut down his regularly scheduled bullpen session and get an MRI, which revealed a rotator cuff strain.

The 31-year-old Seager has hit .271/.373/.487 for a team-high 136 wRC+; his 21 homers and 3.9 WAR are also tops on the Rangers. He already made two trips to the injured list in April and May for a recurrent right hamstring strain and so has played just 102 games, that after being limited to 123 last year by a sports hernia and 119 in 2023 due to a left hamstring strain and a right thumb sprain. He’s been replaced on the roster by infielder Dylan Moore, who was recently released by the Mariners, but the likely replacement for him in the lineup is superutilityman Josh Smith, who has hit .256/.333/.378 (101 wRC+) while playing every position besides pitcher and catcher. Read the rest of this entry »