Archive for Mariners

Jean Segura and the Mariners Are Betting on Each Other

Back in November, the Mariners decided to bet on Jean Segura’s 2016 breakout, swapping prized young starter Taijuan Walker and shortstop Ketel Marte for Segura and outfielder Mitch Haniger. While Jeff and I both took to Haniger as perhaps the most interesting player in the deal, Segura was the headliner for most people, as a 26 year old coming off a +5 WAR season is something you don’t often get to add to your roster. And to this point, Segura hasn’t disappointed.

Prior to going on the DL with a high ankle sprain, Segura was following up last year’s .319/.368/.499 line with a .341/.391/.462 mark, and given the switch from Chase Field to Safeco Field, that’s an even more impressive offensive performance; his 136 wRC+ is 10 points higher than the 126 wRC+ he put up last year. And so, with another few months of strong hitting in his track record, the Mariners have decided to bet on Segura once again, reportedly signing him to a five year, $70 million contract extension.

Given that Segura had one arbitration year left, this is really a four year extension, for roughly around $60 million over those four free agent years. Segura made $6 million in arbitration this winter, and assuming he kept playing well, he would have landed something in the $10 million range for his final arbitration year in 2018, so this deal pays Segura about $15 million a year for age 29-32 seasons.

On the one hand, that’s a pretty easy sell for the team, given what Segura is doing right now and what that kind of money currently buys you in free agency. This deal would put Segura in roughly the same territory as what Josh Reddick (4/$52M) and Mark Melancon (4/$62M) cost last winter, and while those guys are perfectly useful pieces to have on a roster, an everyday shortstop who can hit is more valuable than either one. If Segura had kept running offensive numbers like he has since the start of the 2016 season for the next year and a half, it’s hard to imagine him coming in under $100 million in free agency, so if Segura keeps hitting, this could be a significant bargain for the Mariners.

But Segura isn’t yet a free agent, and his true offensive level remains something of an unknown, so the team is definitely buying some risk in this deal.

Last year’s breakout was fueled by a significant power spike, as Segura posted a .181 ISO, up from .079 in 2015. He hit almost twice as many home runs last season as he did in the two years prior to that combined. 2016 was defined by non-HR hitters finding their home run stroke, and Segura was part of the wave of unexpected sluggers who started launching balls over the fences.

This year, though, the home run power hasn’t carried over that well. He has just four home runs and a .121 ISO that is closer to what he did in his Milwaukee years than in his Arizona breakout. Instead, this year, his offensive line is being carried by a .395 BABIP that is sixth-highest in baseball among qualified hitters. And while Segura is a fast right-hander who sprays the ball around the field (thus neutralizing the shift), his contact quality doesn’t support these kinds of results.

By MLB’s xwOBA calculation, which evaluates a hitter’s expected production based on exit velocity and launch angle, Segura has one of the largest deviations between results and expected results, with a .375 wOBA and a .310 xwOBA. In front of him are a couple of Astros, a couple of Reds, a couple of Rockies, a couple of Red Sox; players who hit in ballparks that are conducive to turning less-strong contact into hits, basically. While Safeco isn’t the pitcher’s paradise it once was, it’s still not a park that inflates offense, and that kind of gap between wOBA and xwOBA suggests that there’s a lot of air that could come out of Segura’s current offensive line.

Of course, there is more to batted ball data than just exit velocity and launch angle, and Andrew Perpetua has done good work with his xSTATS calculations, and his numbers agree that regression is coming, but not to the same degree. He has Segura’s expected line at .300/.347/.440, good for a .340 wOBA, well ahead of what MLB’s calculation suggests, and still quite excellent for a shortstop. And as Tony Blengino wrote over the winter, Segura’s 2016 numbers were mostly supported by his contact, so while he won’t keep running a .395 BABIP, there is a decent amount of evidence that he’s a significantly better hitter now than he was in Milwaukee.

The question now is really an order of magnitude. If he is anything close to what he’s done since last year began, he just left a lot of money on the table. If last year’s power spike was an anomaly and the true-talent BABIP is closer to .330 than .400, then the lack of walks would probably serve to make him an average-ish hitter, which is what ZIPS and Steamer both project going forward. An average hitter who can play shortstop is a nice thing, but defense peaks early, and Segura has graded as an average to below average SS to this point in his career, so it’s not unheard of that he’ll be a defensive liability at the position by the time the new years of the extension begin, and that he would profile better at second base for the duration of the contract.

Of course, Robinson Cano makes a move to second base impractical in Seattle, so Segura will play short for as long as Cano is his double-play partner. And that’s what makes this part of Segura’s decision a bit interesting; he might have just signed up to spend the remainder of his prime with a team with an uncertain future. The Mariners are 29-30 with an aging roster and no real farm system to speak of, and depending on how the next few months go, there was a chance they could have had to make a decision on whether to sell this summer and retool the roster again.

With Segura getting full no-trade protection in this extension, he’s obviously off the market as a trade chip, and if you’re not moving Segura — who would have been one of their most valuable chips — then you’re probably not engaging in a rebuild that gets enough to justify moving other guys either. So while it’s not like the team can’t rebuild now that they’ve re-signed Segura, this seems to signal that the organization intends to continue pushing in on the short-term instead, but they almost certainly can’t run down Houston this year, and the Astros look like a behemoth in the division for years to come.

Perhaps Segura just really likes Seattle, likes the ballpark, likes the organization, and isn’t as concerned about whether he’s on a sustained winner. But 18 months from free agency, it seems like he might have had a chance to earn more money on a team with a more certain future, so him taking an extension now is certainly a risk on his part, as he could end up as an underpaid asset on a team without enough around him to win consistently. That’s not what you generally want.

But given Segura’s up and down career, it’s not hard to see the allure in taking a guaranteed $70 million. A little over a year ago, it was a question of whether he was good enough to start in the big leagues, but now he’s got a secure position for the foreseeable future. Both sides are taking some risk here, betting on the other to do their part to help the team win, and for the price, it probably makes sense for both sides. Now both the organization and their new long-term shortstop have to hope they can find some pitching to make this marriage work for a while.


Baseball’s Toughest (and Easiest) Schedules So Far

When you look up and see that the Athletics are in the midst of a two-game mid-week series against the Marlins in late May, you might suspect that the major-league baseball schedule is simply an exercise in randomness. At this point in the campaign, that’s actually sort of the case. The combination of interleague play and the random vagaries of an early-season schedule conspire to mean that your favorite team hasn’t had the same schedule as your least favorite team. Let’s try to put a number on that disparity.

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Mariners Prospect Gareth Morgan Is Riding BABIP to a Resurgence

Gareth Morgan’s BABIP went down on Tuesday. On the balls in play that he recorded, the Seattle Mariners outfield prospect grounded out, flew out, and singled. He had other at-bats, as well. In one of them, he fanned for the 46th time on the season. In the other two, he homered.

Morgan’s stat sheet is… intriguing. The 2014 second-round pick is slashing a solid .291/.352/.473, with four long balls, in 122 trips to the plate. He’s put up those robust numbers despite a 39.3% strikeout rate.

And then there’s his ball-in-play fortune. Prior to the aforementioned dip, it stood at .491, the highest mark in professional baseball. (He now ranks third, at .475, having been leapfrogged by Clinton Lumber Kings teammate Anthony Jimenez and Blue Jays prospect Bo Bichette.)

The 21-year-old native of Toronto, Ontario, wasn’t aware of that statistical factoid when I spoke to him after Tuesday’s game. Nor could he offer an easy explanation for the mix of whiffs and safe landings.

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Could Ichiro Have Been a Power Hitter?

When asked recently about his post-retirement plans, the fabulous Ichiro Suzuki provided a response as memorable as his career: “I think I’ll just die,” he told Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. It’s possible that he might just play forever. So it’s premature to call this remarkable at-bat in Seattle on April 19th his last in Seattle, as many did when it occurred.

But it does remind us of another great response Ichiro provided — one that gave life to the idea that he would be a great Home Run Derby entrant. “If I’m allowed to hit .220, I could probably hit 40 [homers],” he told Bob Nightengale back in 2007. “But nobody wants that.”

Ben Lindbergh once looked at the hypothetical shift in Ichiro’s outcomes if the player had attempted to hit for power, but now that we have even better batted-ball data, we can maybe take a look and see if he could have even been that 40-homer hitter at all.

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Is Baseball’s Most Improved Hitter…Taylor Motter?

Statcast! Who doesn’t love playing with Statcast? Baseball Savant makes it all possible, so let’s take a quick look at a 2017 vs. 2016 comparison. I looked at every hitter with at least 30 batted balls in each of the last two seasons. Here’s a plot of all of their changes in average exit velocity and average launch angle. One data point is highlighted.

The point I highlighted belongs to Taylor Motter. There’s a pretty great chance you’ve never even heard of Taylor Motter. He was a quiet acquisition, and he might not even be playing in the majors were it not for health issues with Shawn O’Malley and Jean Segura. But there’s Motter, a utility type with a 179 wRC+. Last season, in exit velocity, he ranked in the 25th percentile, by names like Eduardo Escobar and Chris Stewart. So far this season, he ranks in the 97th percentile. In fact, here’s the whole top 10!

  1. Miguel Sano
  2. Joey Gallo
  3. Miguel Cabrera
  4. Nick Castellanos
  5. Khris Davis
  6. Freddie Freeman
  7. Taylor Motter
  8. Yandy Diaz
  9. Manny Machado
  10. Aaron Judge

Very strong, dangerous hitters. Also Yandy Diaz and Taylor Motter. Diaz is interesting, but he’s also hit a bunch of grounders. Motter’s been elevating, and when you look at that plot, his launch angle is up four degrees, and his exit velocity is up nine ticks. Sano has the next-biggest exit-velocity gain, at +6.7. Then it’s Castellanos, at +5.3. No one else has reached +4. Obviously, the samples are small, too small to arrive at certain conclusions, but Motter might’ve seen this as his best shot at building a career. Here he is, and with the Mariners having dropped Leonys Martin yesterday, Motter could stick around, playing all over semi-regularly.

If you watch Taylor Motter go deep, he looks like a home-run hitter. Like, everything about this seems perfectly natural.

Yet here’s the real trick. What’s driving Motter’s early success? Why couldn’t he do this in a brief stint last season? Motter is trying to hit literally everything to left field. He’s trying to make the most of the bat speed he has.

Nobody has a higher pull rate than Motter’s 72%. Only Trevor Plouffe has a lower opposite-field rate than Motter’s 5%. Motter’s been hunting pitches he can elevate and pull, and he’s gotten enough of them to accomplish what he’s accomplished. If you’re curious, since 2002, the highest single-season pull rate for a qualified hitter has been 64%, by 2003 Tony Batista. If you drop the minimum to 250 plate appearances, then the highest pull rate is 66%, by 2002 Greg Vaughn. Pull hitters like Vaughn, Batista, Marcus Thames, and Gary Sheffield don’t really work for me as potential Motter comps.

No, I think there’s an obvious one, here. There’s a decent chance Motter will be exposed over a greater period of time. It might even be a good chance. Motter, after all, struggled just last season. But if he holds to this approach, and if it works for him, you could see him as someone in the Brian Dozier mold. Dozier became a quality everyday player when he started to pull the ball aggressively in the air. Pitchers haven’t been able to solve him yet, after a handful of years. Given a good-enough eye and quick-enough hands, a hitter can survive like this, essentially eliminating half of the field. It’s no way to be *great*, but one can be good. Or even just useful.

Taylor Motter isn’t Brian Dozier, officially. But he’s channeled Dozier in getting to this point, where he’s currently the most-searched player on FanGraphs.com. Sometimes baseball makes me write the weirdest damn sentences.


Mitch Haniger’s Six Great Comps and One Boring One

So far, Mitch Haniger has been one of the best hitters in baseball. He’s not alone — Freddie Freeman has also been one of the best hitters in baseball. Eric Thames and Francisco Lindor and Khris Davis have been some of the best hitters in baseball. By definition, we’re talking in pluralities, but Haniger is one of a small group, and I would like to write about him. This is what that is. Yesterday, Haniger batted five times against the Marlins. What did he do? Here’s the first plate appearance.

(That’s a walk.)

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James Paxton, the Everything-Doer

For the Mariners, pitching-wise, 2017 has already been a mixed bag. Drew Smyly showed some extra arm strength in the WBC, but then almost immediately afterward, he experienced arm discomfort that sent him to the disabled list. Yovani Gallardo has shown better stuff, but not better results. Hisashi Iwakuma has shown far worse stuff, and far worse results. Felix Hernandez, though, has gotten himself back to throwing consistent strikes. And then there’s James Paxton. Many have focused on whether Felix would be able to bounce back, but it’s Paxton who’s been the best and most exciting starter for a while.

Last Saturday, against the Rangers, Paxton spun eight frames of shutout baseball, getting all the way up to 114 pitches. Some shutout efforts come as the result of exceptional defense or exceptional fortune, but Paxton threw strike after strike, whiffing nine of 26 opponents. He looked every bit like a rotation ace, and although it can take some time before that label is truly earned, Paxton is making a charge for it. In the early going, he’s made three starts. He’s allowed a run in none of them.

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The Mariners Are in Trouble

There’s no shortage of disappointing teams in the early going. The playoff-hopeful Cardinals are 3-6. The playoff-hopeful Rangers are 3-5. The playoff-hopeful Giants are 4-6. Scoot all the way to the bottom of the standings, though, and two teams stand out. The Blue Jays are a terrible 1-7, and Dave just wrote about the decision they could shortly be facing. And the Mariners are a hardly-better 2-8, already multiple games behind every team in the division. Based on the calendar, it remains too early for anyone to panic. Yet no one should doubt that a challenging start can result in significant damage.

It’s not too hard to put a semi-positive spin on things. While the Mariners have wound up losers in eight games, they’ve had a lead at some point in seven. Last night, they lost a game they led 5-0. Over the weekend, they lost a game they led 8-1. Games like that are fluky. A week ago, they lost a game they led in the bottom of the 13th, because they had to use a pitcher who was replacing another pitcher whose wife was having a baby. Tough losses always feel like unfortunate losses. But, they are losses, and they all count just the same. It feels like we just reached the end of spring training, but life comes at you fast.

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Top 16 Prospects: Seattle Mariners

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Seattle Mariners farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)
NL West (HOU, LAA)

Mariners Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Kyle Lewis 21 A- OF 2019 55
2 Tyler O’Neill 21 AAA OF 2017 50
3 Nick Neidert 20 A+ RHP 2019 45
4 Mitch Haniger 26 MLB OF 2016 45
5 Andrew Moore 22 AA RHP 2017 45
6 Dan Altavilla 24 MLB RHP 2017 45
7 Dan Vogelbach 24 MLB 1B 2017 45
8 Ben Gamel 24 MLB OF 2017 40
9 Guillermo Heredia 26 MLB OF 2017 40
10 Max Povse 23 AA RHP 2018 40
11 Chris Torres 19 R SS 2020 40
12 Brayan Hernandez 19 R CF 2020 40
13 Thyago Vieira 24 AA RHP 2018 40
14 Bryson Brigman 21 A 2B 2019 40
15 Joe Rizzo 19 R 3B 2020 40
16 Braden Bishop 23 A+ CF 2019 40

55 FV Prospects

1. Kyle Lewis, OF
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Mercer
Age 21 Height 6’4 Weight 205 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 60/70 40/60 45/40 45/55 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .395/.535/.731 with 20 home runs as junior at Mercer.

Scouting Report
Lewis crashed the national party on the Cape in 2015, distinguishing himself as the most talented prospect and youngest regular on an Orleans roster teeming with talent. (Half of the Firebirds roster were honest-to-god prospects.) His junior year at Mercer included 20 home runs, a Golden Spikes award, and questions about the quality of pitching he faced in the Southern Conference.

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Let’s Watch Felix Hernandez and Mike Trout Face Off Forever

Mike Trout is the best baseball player, so he’s automatically interesting. Felix Hernandez is probably not one of the best baseball players, but he has been recently enough that he remains interesting. On Saturday, Felix pitched and Trout hit, and as we all learned in school, Interesting * Interesting = Interesting^2. That’s extremely interesting! In this post, we’ll review the game’s first at-bat between the two. It was the kind of at-bat that leaves you thinking and talking about it days later, which, well, yeah, that’s what we’re doing here.

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