Julio Rodríguez’s season was growing bleaker and bleaker by the day as he labored through the longest slump of his short career. We had expected him to get right sooner than later — after all, he’s one of the most talented players in the sport, with an explosive bat, top-shelf sprint speed, and a cannon of an arm — but it was worrisome to see him struggle for so long. He had an 86 wRC+ across 360 plate appearances at the end of June.

Over the last few months, though, Rodríguez has progressively figured things out, with his turnaround culminating with his current heater. Since July 1, he is batting .321/.377/.545 with 12 home runs and a 166 wRC+, and over his last 10 games, fueled by his .458/.471/.833 line, five homers, and 270 wRC+, he’s added 1.3 WAR to his ledger. He is a key reason why the Mariners are still in the playoff race with less than a week remaining in the season, though you could also make the case that his overall underperformance is one of the reasons why Seattle is barely hanging around. Either way, to better understand the story of Rodríguez’s season, we have to dive deeper into his struggles.

Rodríguez pitch-by-pitch performance data show he spent the first three months of the season almost exclusively hunting fastballs, which isn’t a bad idea considering he feasts on them. The problem was that because his eyes were focused only on one speed, he started swinging at any pitch that he thought might be a fastball, and as a result, he was chasing too many breaking balls and offspeed pitches.

During the first three months of this season, Rodríguez may have been the worst everyday hitter against offspeed pitches in the entire sport. Among the 260 batters who saw at least 50 offspeed pitches outside the zone through the end of June, he had the second-worst chase rate at 54.9%, behind Nick Gordon. As a result, Rodríguez had a .157 wOBA against offspeed pitches, which dragged down his overall numbers, especially because he also had trouble against breaking balls (.232 wOBA).

Rodríguez’s feast-on-fastballs approach corresponded with a swing deviation that limited his production. In previous seasons, Rodríguez thrived because of his swing variability, which allowed him to do damage against different pitches in different locations. That is an essential skill for him because he is one of the more aggressive hitters in baseball. However, during the first months of this season, because he seemed to be selling out for fastballs, his hacks were too noisy on most of his swings. That type of one-dimensional swing is designed to crush higher-velocity meatballs — and, even as he struggled, he was still doing that — but it is susceptible to pretty much everything else.

When looking at SEAGER, it becomes clearer that Rodríguez truly did have an eat-the-meatball approach. Yet despite his increased chase rate against offspeed pitches, his SEAGER has actually improved from last year. His Selectivity% is about league average as of this week, in the 54th percentile (mainly due to recent improvements), but his Hittable Pitch Take% is in the 97th percentile, meaning he is rarely letting pitches he can damage pass him by. Altogether, he is in the 95th percentile for SEAGER, a jump from last year’s 69th percentile score. At first glance, this might seem contradictory, that he’s making better swing decisions during his worst season. But just because he is swinging at hittable pitches doesn’t mean those swings have enough variability to produce against pitches with different speeds and locations.

The thing is, even though Rodríguez was hunting heaters with a swing that is tailored to damage them, it doesn’t seem like he intentionally altered his mechanics. Rather, the two changes likely came about simultaneously and spiraled as they reinforced each other. Here’s what probably happened: After getting off to a slow start, he began pressing to break out of his funk and tried to clobber the most hittable pitches he saw, leading to a one-dimensional, fastball-dependent swing.

Rodríguez is at his best when he has a flatter Vertical Bat Angle (VBA). VBA is the angle of the barrel relative to the ground at contact. So that means his best performance has come when his bat has been flatter at contact. That could mean deeper contact and/or a flatter entry into the hitting zone. Flat swings don’t work for all hitters, but for a someone like Rodríguez who creates so much bat speed deep in the zone, they typically are a recipe for success. Over the first three months of the season, Rodríguez had the steepest VBA of his career, ranging between 33.4 to 35.5 degrees; this stretch coincided with his below-average offensive production. Since the beginning of July, though, he’s flattened his VBA to somewhere between 30 and 31 degrees, much more in line with his career norms.

Rodríguez’s upper body mechanics are crucial to his swing because they determine the path his bat takes to the ball. He has a louder bat row, similar to those of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Rafael Devers, two hitters who also have swings on the flatter side. Noisy movements help batters generate power and time up their swings, but with more movement comes more room for error when something goes awry. Having an effectively loud swing requires maintenance and attention to ensure the delicate balance between power and control doesn’t fall out of whack.

If Rodríguez’s swing had unintentionally become more vertically oriented because of a different setup or row, that could have disrupted where he perceived his bat to be in space (proprioception) and hindered his contact quality and frequency. This all makes sense in theory, but let’s confirm it with some video analysis. The first two swings below are from May and the next two are from July:

May

July

You can see a much more toned-down bat row in July compared to what it was in May. Since Rodríguez isn’t moving it as aggressively in the pre-swing, his bat starts on a flatter plane when he descends into his downswing. That helps decrease the amount of time it takes to get his barrel into the zone and is more in line with where his swing has been in the past.

Now, let’s compare two swings, one from last season when he was rolling, and another from the second half of this season, as he returned to form:

2023

His mechanics aren’t identical, but they are much closer now than they were when he was struggling during the first few months of this year. Pay attention to the angle of his bat throughout the row and how far his hands drift from his body. Maintaining the connection between his barrel/hands and the rest of his upper body is paramount for him to control his barrel.

As a last piece of information to consider, I was curious about how Rodríguez’s bat speed changed as his row calmed down a bit and his swing flattened back out. This month, his bat speed has ticked up significantly compared to the first three months of the season. He’s swinging at an average velocity of 77.7 mph in September, a sizable spike from April through June, when his average swing was just under 76.0 mph. If flatter means faster, then it sounds like he should stay where he’s at right now.

Any Mariners fan would tell you that in the first few months when Rodríguez was struggling, he was clearly pressing. Any player would tell you that when you start pressing, your swing can regress because of it. You try and hack your way back to your normal numbers and get too far from the best version of yourself. It’s an intuitive story.

Considering the Mariners were just eliminated from the AL West race Tuesday night and currently sit 2.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot with four games to play, it would have been nice for them to have gotten this version of Rodríguez a bit sooner. But the season isn’t over just yet. Maybe the young superstar can propel his team into an unlikely playoff berth. After “The J-Rod Show” got off to such a slow start this year, that would be an especially epic season finale.

Except for the standings, which include Tuesday’s results, all stats are updated as of Tuesday morning.

As we head into the final week of the regular season, 15 teams still show signs of life when it comes to claiming a playoff berth. On the one hand, that sounds impressive — half the majors still contending — and it’s on par with last year and better than 2022. Nonetheless, it still boils down to just three teams falling by the wayside, and just one of the six division leads having a greater than 1% chance of changing hands. As noted previously, since the adoption of the 2022 Collective Bargaining Agreement and its four-round playoff system, the options for scheduling chaos have been replaced by the excitement of math. On-field tiebreakers are a thing of the past, with head-to-head records usually all that are required to sort things out.

On Friday I checked in on the race to secure first-round byes, which go to the teams with the top two records in each league, so today I’ll shift focus to what’s left of the Wild Card races. Thankfully, there’s still enough at stake for both leagues to offering some amount of intrigue. Read the rest of this entry »

Direct Links (Please see full job postings below):

Intern, Baseball Operations
Intern, Minor League Development

Intern, Baseball Operations

Reports To: Vice President, Baseball Administration

Status: Nonexempt

Timeline: PPreference will be given to candidates who can start by March 1, 2025, and work through mid-October 2025.

Primary Objective: Responsible for coordination, support, and assistance to the Baseball Operations department in research, administration, and day-to-day scouting operation tasks.

Essential Functions:

• Support all areas of the Pro and Amateur Scouting departments, including player evaluation, research, video clipping, and preparation for the Amateur Draft meetings.
• Provide support in Advance Scouting, including preparation of the Major League Advance Scouting report.
• Provide additional statistical analysis, economic, and financial research as assigned.
• Will perform other duties as assigned

Education and Experience:

• Bachelor’s degree preferred. Equivalent relevant work or playing experience may be considered in lieu of formal education if approved by management.
• Basic Spanish proficiency is preferred.
• Background in player evaluation is preferred.
• Background in video preparation is preferred.

Competencies, Knowledge, Skills and Abilities (KSA’s):

• Working knowledge of statistical baseball data and its application as it pertains to scouting information, baseball strategy, and current in-game management trends.
• Proficiency in Microsoft Excel and PowerPoint.
• Authentic and Aware: Exemplifies the highest standards of professionalism and ethics, demonstrating a dedication to doing the right thing and treating everyone with respect. Is self-aware and open to feedback, ability to speak the truth with a positive intent, foster a culture of honesty and builds trust with the team. Commitment to the organization’s mission is evident in both words and actions, aligned to actively contribute to the fulfillment of organizational goals.
• Communicate and Collaborate: Values others and their views, actively engaging and partnering with team members. Seeks clarity and shares information transparently, fostering a collaborative environment while influencing others and aligning support. Excels in seeking out and leveraging the right resources, engaging in teamwork with a positive and productive approach. Whether verbally or in writing, communicates in a clear and constructive manner, contributing to an engaged and efficient workplace. 
• Execute with Purpose: Takes action and demonstrates accountability, leading with a sense of urgency and dedication to achieving results. Sets and meets challenging expectations for themselves and others, making timely, data-driven decisions and taking ownership of outcomes. Approachable, engaged, and committed; sets a positive tone and cares deeply about the organization. Manages time, priorities, and resources effectively, aiming for and achieving excellence.
• Adapt and Innovate: Acts boldly, fosters innovation, and supports transformational change. Leveraging analysis and insights, develops new directions and solutions, identifying opportunities for improvement and displaying a commitment to fixing them. With an ongoing commitment to learning and self-development, overcomes challenges constructively and adjusts effectively to shifting priorities and rapid change. This approach contributes to a dynamic work environment focused on progress and continuous improvement.
• Competent in required job skills and knowledge. Completes work assignments thoroughly and completely in an accurate and prompt manner. Identifies and corrects errors. Is careful, alert, and accurate, paying attention to details of the job.

The Mariners are committed to providing a competitive total rewards package for our valued Team Members.

The anticipated compensation for this role is $20.00 per hour. We also provide complimentary parking and paid public transportation.

All benefits are subject to eligibility requirements and the terms of official plan documents which may be modified or amended from time to time.

This information is being provided in accordance with the Washington State Equal Pay and Opportunity Act.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

Intern, Minor League Development

Reports To: Major League Assistant Video Coordinator and Major League Video Coordinator

Status: Hourly, Non-Exempt

Timeline: The Seattle Mariners are seeking Minor League Development Interns for all Mariners Minor League Affiliates. Must be available to start by March 3rd, 2025. The expected end date is determined by the conclusion of the 2025 Minor League season. Positions will be based at Mariners Affiliates; AAA Tacoma, AA Arkansas, A+ Everett, A- Modesto, and Rookie level Peoria.

Primary Objective: Responsible for coordinating day-to-day video and technology operations associated with assigned Minor League team. This includes, but is not limited to capturing, editing, and distributing video for Minor League Coaching Staff and players, in addition to providing Advance Scouting reports prior to each home/road contest, and operating all relevant baseball technologies throughout the course of the season both at home and traveling with the club on the road.

Essential Functions:

• Capture, tag and upload video for assigned Minor League Affiliate using BATS and other related software for all home and road contests during regular season/post-season play.
• Collect video and data from bullpens, batting practice and defensive work.
• Coordinate use of performance science equipment (Portable and Stadium Trackman, Hawk-Eye, Edgertronic, Blast, etc.) and provide results to coaches and staff.
• Assist in preparing and distributing Advance Scouting reports and tools prior to each series.
• Support affiliate Trackman intern and coordinate data collection and quality control processes.
• Assist coaching staff with miscellaneous video and data-related projects.
• Serve as team point-of-contact for technological troubleshooting.
• Will perform other duties as assigned.

Education and Experience:

• High school diploma required.
• College coursework preferred.
• Prior experience with BATS video charting software, TruMedia, PitchBase, Portable Trackman, Edgertronic cameras, etc. strongly preferred.
• Previous experience with an MLB or NCAA Baseball organization strongly preferred.
• Experience with video editing software such as Movavi, Adobe Premiere Pro, etc strongly preferred.
• Must be able to correctly identify pitch types.
• Must be willing to relocate to assigned affiliate for all home and road games.

Competencies, Knowledge, Skills and Abilities (KSA’s):

• Possesses working knowledge of modern baseball analytics, strategy, and trends.
• Authentic and Aware: Exemplifies the highest standards of professionalism and ethics, demonstrating a dedication to doing the right thing and treating everyone with respect. Is self-aware and open to feedback, ability to speak the truth with a positive intent, foster a culture of honesty and builds trust with the team. Commitment to the organization’s mission is evident in both words and actions, aligned to actively contribute to the fulfillment of organizational goals. 
• Communicate and Collaborate: Values others and their views, actively engaging and partnering with team members. Seeks clarity and shares information transparently, fostering a collaborative environment while influencing others and aligning support. Excels in seeking out and leveraging the right resources, engaging in teamwork with a positive and productive approach. Whether verbally or in writing, communicates in a clear and constructive manner, contributing to an engaged and efficient workplace. 
• Execute with Purpose: Takes action and demonstrates accountability, leading with a sense of urgency and dedication to achieving results. Sets and meets challenging expectations for themselves and others, making timely, data-driven decisions and taking ownership of outcomes. Approachable, engaged, and committed; sets a positive tone and cares deeply about the organization. Manages time, priorities, and resources effectively, aiming for and achieving excellence. 
• Adapt and Innovate: Acts boldly, fosters innovation, and supports transformational change. Leveraging analysis and insights, develops new directions and solutions, identifying opportunities for improvement and displaying a commitment to fixing them. With an ongoing commitment to learning and self-development, overcomes challenges constructively and adjusts effectively to shifting priorities and rapid change. This approach contributes to a dynamic work environment focused on progress and continuous improvement. 

The Mariners are committed to providing a competitive total rewards package for our valued Team Members.

The anticipated range of base compensation for this role is $11.00 – $19.97 per hour based on the state minimum wage of the affiliate location.

All benefits are subject to eligibility requirements and the terms of official plan documents which may be modified or amended from time to time. Paid public transportation is provided in Washington State.

This information is being provided in accordance with the Washington State Equal Pay and Opportunity Act.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Seattle Mariners.

Direct Links (Please see full job postings below):

Intern, Baseball Projects
Intern, Analytics

Intern, Baseball Projects

Reports To: Assistant Director, Baseball Projects

Status: Hourly, Non-Exempt

Timeline: Preference will be given to candidates who can start by March 1, 2025, and work through mid-October 2025. Flexible timeline for candidates enrolled in college.

Primary Objective: Responsible for contributing to technical projects at the intersection of baseball analytics and broader baseball operations, with an emphasis on creating innovative tools & streamlining communications.

Essential Functions:

• Develop reports, software, and educational materials to facilitate evidence-based decision-making throughout broader baseball operations.
• Provide quantitative support to player plan, high performance, advance scouting, and other player improvement processes.             
• Contribute to amateur & professional player acquisition decisions in both formal & informal contexts.
• Fulfill ad hoc requests from coaches, scouts, and other staff about internal metrics & processes.
• Will perform other duties as assigned by Assistant Director, Baseball Projects.

Education and Experience:

• Bachelor’s degree preferred. Equivalent, relevant experience may be considered in lieu of education requirements if approved by management.
• Proficiency handling large datasets in R, SQL, Python, and/or comparable languages is required.
• Shiny application or other web development experience is preferred.
• Experience building predictive models is a plus, but not required.
• Ability to communicate in Spanish is a plus, but not required.

Competencies, Knowledge, Skills and Abilities (KSA’s):

• Strong problem-solving abilities with attention to detail in a fast-paced working environment.
• Knowledge of baseball rules and passion for baseball innovation.
• Authentic and Aware: Exemplifies the highest standards of professionalism and ethics, demonstrating a dedication to doing the right thing and treating everyone with respect. Is self-aware and open to feedback, ability to speak the truth with a positive intent, foster a culture of honesty and builds trust with the team. Commitment to the organization’s mission is evident in both words and actions, aligned to actively contribute to the fulfillment of organizational goals. 
• Communicate and Collaborate: Values others and their views, actively engaging and partnering with team members. Seeks clarity and shares information transparently, fostering a collaborative environment while influencing others and aligning support. Excels in seeking out and leveraging the right resources, engaging in teamwork with a positive and productive approach. Whether verbally or in writing, communicates in a clear and constructive manner, contributing to an engaged and efficient workplace. 
• Execute with Purpose: Takes action and demonstrates accountability, leading with a sense of urgency and dedication to achieving results. Sets and meets challenging expectations for themselves and others, making timely, data-driven decisions and taking ownership of outcomes. Approachable, engaged, and committed; sets a positive tone and cares deeply about the organization. Manages time, priorities, and resources effectively, aiming for and achieving excellence. 
• Adapt and Innovate: Acts boldly, fosters innovation, and supports transformational change. Leveraging analysis and insights, develops new directions and solutions, identifying opportunities for improvement and displaying a commitment to fixing them. With an ongoing commitment to learning and self-development, overcomes challenges constructively and adjusts effectively to shifting priorities and rapid change. This approach contributes to a dynamic work environment focused on progress and continuous improvement. 

The Mariners are committed to providing a competitive total rewards package for our valued Team Members.

The anticipated compensation for this role is $20.00 per hour. We also provide complimentary parking and paid public transportation.

All benefits are subject to eligibility requirements and the terms of official plan documents which may be modified or amended from time to time.

This information is being provided in accordance with the Washington State Equal Pay and Opportunity Act.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

Intern, Analytics

Reports To: Manager, Baseball Analytics

Status: Hourly, Non-Exempt

Timeline: Preference will be given to candidates who can start by March 1, 2025 or sooner, and work through mid-October 2025.

Primary Objective: Responsible for supporting all areas of baseball operations through baseball-related data science, including statistical modeling, research, visualizations, and other projects.

Essential Functions:

• Statistical modeling and analysis of a variety of data sources including Trackman, Hawkeye, and proprietary data sets.
• Ad hoc queries and quantitative research.
• Will perform other duties as assigned.

Education and Experience:

• Bachelor’s degree preferred. Education and experience may be considered in lieu of education requirements if approved by management.
• A strong foundation in mathematics, statistics, computer science, and/or engineering required.
• Proficiency in programming with either R or Python required.
• Proficiency with SQL preferred.
• Track record of original baseball research preferred.
• Experience building and interpreting predictive models preferred.

Competencies, Knowledge, Skills and Abilities (KSA’s):

• Strong technical skills in predictive modeling, data analysis, and research.
• Authentic and Aware: Exemplifies the highest standards of professionalism and ethics, demonstrating a dedication to doing the right thing and treating everyone with respect. Is self-aware and open to feedback, ability to speak the truth with a positive intent, foster a culture of honesty and builds trust with the team. Commitment to the organization’s mission is evident in both words and actions, aligned to actively contribute to the fulfillment of organizational goals. 
• Communicate and Collaborate: Values others and their views, actively engaging and partnering with team members. Seeks clarity and shares information transparently, fostering a collaborative environment while influencing others and aligning support. Excels in seeking out and leveraging the right resources, engaging in teamwork with a positive and productive approach. Whether verbally or in writing, communicates in a clear and constructive manner, contributing to an engaged and efficient workplace. 
• Execute with Purpose: Takes action and demonstrates accountability, leading with a sense of urgency and dedication to achieving results. Sets and meets challenging expectations for themselves and others, making timely, data-driven decisions and taking ownership of outcomes. Approachable, engaged, and committed; sets a positive tone and cares deeply about the organization. Manages time, priorities, and resources effectively, aiming for and achieving excellence. 
• Adapt and Innovate: Acts boldly, fosters innovation, and supports transformational change. Leveraging analysis and insights, develops new directions and solutions, identifying opportunities for improvement and displaying a commitment to fixing them. With an ongoing commitment to learning and self-development, overcomes challenges constructively and adjusts effectively to shifting priorities and rapid change. This approach contributes to a dynamic work environment focused on progress and continuous improvement. 

The Mariners are committed to providing a competitive total rewards package for our valued Team Members. 

The anticipated compensation for this role is $20.00 per hour. We also provide complimentary parking and paid public transportation. 

All benefits are subject to eligibility requirements and the terms of official plan documents which may be modified or amended from time to time. 

This information is being provided in accordance with the Washington State Equal Pay and Opportunity Act.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Seattle Mariners.

We try to spread things out here at FanGraphs Dot Com, so it’s unusual for us to have articles about the same player on consecutive days. But yesterday, we ran a story by Davy Andrews on Victor Robles, who’s been one of the rare bright spots for the Seattle Mariners this season. Robles was released by the Washington Nationals in early June — which is itself a pretty dark omen — but in 68 games with Seattle, he’s performed at a superstar level, and… you know what, just go read Davy’s piece.

Something this unexpectedly positive is probably not going to last forever. Even if Robles has rediscovered himself after years of hitting like a pitcher, I’d take the under on his OBP staying in the .400s for the long term. Which is the inherent irony of a story like that: By the time a hot streak is worth writing about, it’s usually closer to the end than the beginning. But even by those standards, Davy got a really terrible break. On Tuesday night, Robles pulled off the baseball equivalent of flying his hang glider into a set of high-tension wires. He got lifted in the third inning due to a hand injury, but not before he made one of the more baffling baserunning gaffes I can remember. Read the rest of this entry »

I was writing from the heart. When the Nationals designated Victor Robles for assignment back in May, I wrote about what it was like to wait for him to make it to the big leagues; and then, once he arrived, to wait for him to turn into a star; and then, when it became clear that he wasn’t going to turn into a star, to wait for him to turn into a solid contributor; and then, as the likelihood of that outcome grew more and more faint, just to wait.

Fans reserve a special kind of affection for players like Robles. They don’t do it on purpose; it’s just how people tend to work. Superstars, with their reliable excellence, are easy to love. They’re big, warm Labrador retrievers with their tails waggling like Gary Sheffield’s bat as they wait impatiently for you to open the front door every night. They give you exactly what you want, and the love they inspire is beautiful and simple. When they move on to another organization, the loss you feel is deep, yes, but its edges are clearly defined because something pure has been taken from you.

When you’ve been watching and waiting and hoping for a player to figure things out for the better part of the decade, the feelings involved are a lot messier. Even if your love and your loss aren’t as profound, their edges are a lot more ragged. You’ve spent years pinballing between highs and lows, hopes and fears, anxiety and joy and despair, sometimes all at once. In other words, it’s a lot more like real life and real love. By the time a player like that moves on, you’ve invested way too much of your well-being in them to simply stop caring. It’s hard to imagine a single Nationals fan anywhere who wasn’t rooting for Robles to finally figure things out once the Mariners gave him the change of scenery he so clearly needed, who wasn’t truly happy to see him get off to a hot start in Seattle. But we all have our limits.

Back on August 6, over at Baseball Prospectus, Mikey Ajeto broke down all the mechanical adjustments that Robles has made since he joined Seattle. (Yes, the same Mikey Ajeto who writes exclusively about pitchers. Honestly, the biggest miracle that Robles has performed isn’t magically going supernova the moment that he turned the W on his hat upside down; it’s getting Ajeto to pay attention to a hitter for once.) He’s dropped his hands, ditched his leg kick, and added a scissor kick and a mini-squat before the pitch. Because Ajeto covered those more technical topics, I can continue to focus on the surface-level numbers. And you know what happened to the surface-level numbers after the publication of that article, which was entirely devoted to documenting Robles’s sudden improvement as the plate? They didn’t just keep getting better, they exploded.

I was wishing as hard as anyone for Robles to succeed with the Mariners, but I didn’t mean like this. I was thrilled to see him land a two-year extension worth a guaranteed $9.75 million, but he wasn’t supposed to instantly turn into the best player in baseball, like moving moving from a district named Washington to an actual state named Washington was all it took to break a powerful curse cast by some old Issaquah-based witch who fell into the Reflecting Pool during her mock trial team’s trip to DC in ninth grade and never got over the humiliation. And no, I’m not exaggerating. From June 5 to August 17, Robles turned his season around, running a 118 wRC+. Since August 18, Robles has literally been the best player in baseball: He’s put up a 230 wRC+ and accrued 1.8 WAR, more than whichever Cooperstown-bound MVP candidate you’d care to name. Sure, it’s fair to point out that he’s running a comically high .527 BABIP over that period, but his .386 xwOBA still ranks 19th among qualified players during that stretch. It’s starting to look like the simplest explanation for why Robles never lived up to his potential is that cherry blossoms are his personal kryptonite.

Somehow Robles left this ragged hole in the hearts of Nationals fans, but arrived in Seattle a gleaming superstar. The chaos has only reared its head lately. Robles is playing through a hip issue, and left his last two games due to different injuries: leg soreness on Sunday and a right hand contusion after getting hit by a pitch to lead off last night’s game, an 11-2 loss to the Yankees. Before Robles was removed against New York, his wildness on the basepaths finally caught up with the Mariners, with whom he’d previously gone 25-for-25 on stolen base attempts. He was caught stealing home in the bottom of the first inning, taking the bat out of Justin Turner’s hands with the bases loaded, two outs, and a 3-0 count.

I’m not saying all this is going to last, no matter how much Robles loves the Puget Sound. Since he arrived in Seattle, he’s run a 34.4% hard-hit rate and an 86.7-mph average exit velocity. The former is much better than Robles has put up in any previous season, but the latter isn’t and both are still well below league average. The real change is his barrel rate of 8.6%, which is miles above anything he’s accomplished in previous years. But keep in mind that we’re talking about just 13 barrels out of 151 balls in play, and neither his launch angle nor his GB/FB rate represents much of a departure from his career numbers. We’ve moved past any-batter-can-do-just-about-anything-over-60-plate-appearances territory, but we’re not all that far off either.

Robles has made some honest-to-goodness adjustments to his swing that have had an immediate, dramatic effect — frankly, the effect was so immediate and so dramatic that the Nationals should be looking closely at every single one of those adjustments and asking themselves what the Mariners saw that they didn’t — and we should probably adjust our priors going forward. But I haven’t seen anything (yet) to convince me that he’s going to keep running a BABIP above .500 from here on out. Further, Robles has been dealing with a hip issue in addition to the leg soreness (which is a separate ailment) and the hand injury that forced his early exit from the last two games. As someone who spent something like a quarter of my life rooting for Robles to finally put it all together, I sincerely hope his nagging injuries turn out to be no more than just that, and that when Robles finally does come down to earth, he finds a comfortable spot that’s situated well above sea level. But as long as he’s spending whole months with a wRC+ above 200, I reserve the right to be a little jealous.

Before I started researching this article, I assumed that Cal Raleigh had been an All-Star before. I was wrong. Raleigh is in just his third full season as a big leaguer, but he’s spent all of that time as one of the best catchers in baseball, so I was surprised to find out that the last time he won an award of any kind was 2019, when he was named the California League’s Rookie of the Year as a member of the Modesto Nuts. Now that I know, I feel even stronger about the premise of this article, so please forgive me for stating it so baldly: Cal Raleigh is a star, and it’s about time we all acknowledged it.

Raleigh has turned on the afterburners over his last nine games entering Wednesday, slashing .314/.390/.629 with three home runs for a 187 wRC+. With that, he pushed his WAR to 4.3, tying his total from the 2023 season. According to WAR, he was the sixth-best catcher in baseball in 2022, the fourth best in ’23, and he’s now the second best in ’24. Unless my pattern recognition skills have fallen off since elementary school, next year he’ll have to find a way to be number zero.

Here’s what Kevin Goldstein wrote in June 2021, just a bit over a month before Raleigh made his big league debut:

Teams were almost universally enamored with Raleigh’s bat in the 2018 draft, but the Florida State product fell to the third round because most had big concerns about his ability to stay at catcher, projecting a quick move to first base, where the pressure on the player to hit increases exponentially. The Mariners decided to at least try to keep him behind the plate, and to the player’s credit, Raleigh has put an incredible amount of work into his defense, and suddenly looks like an average defensive catcher.

As it turned out, Raleigh struggled mightily at the plate during his 43-game rookie stint with the Mariners, but his defense graded out great. In that short sample, both FRV and DRP rated his framing highly, and DRS would hop on board the following season. This year, in an uncommon bit of perfect harmony, all three of those advanced defensive metrics agree that Raleigh is having his best season ever behind the plate. DRP says he’s saved 17.5 runs, DRS has him at 17, and FRV at 13, all of which are good enough to rate him the best defensive catcher in the American League and second best in the game, behind Patrick Bailey.

Raleigh has paired that defensive excellence with the classic profile of a power hitter. He strikes out too much, but when he does make contact, look out. That’s not to say that he’s out of control: This year, he’s been especially aggressive on pitches over the heart of the plate, so despite his elevated chase rate, he ranks in the 80th percentile in Robert Orr’s SEAGER metric, which measures selective aggression. Opposing pitchers, hopeful that they can induce a chase and terrified of what might happen if they hit the zone, are throwing Raleigh a lot of balls, and he’s running a career-high 10.8% walk rate despite striking out nearly 30% of the time.

Even with the higher walk total, Raleigh’s profile still depends much more on power than his on-base ability. First, as befits a catcher nicknamed Big Dumper, he doesn’t beat out too many hits, which drives down his batting average. More important is the way Raleigh swings. He doesn’t just have the profile of a classic power hitter; he’s got the elevate-and-celebrate profile of today’s power hitters. He specializes in barrels, hitting the ball hard and lifting it like few others. His 53% fly ball rate is second among qualified players, and for the third season in a row, he’s in the 94th percentile or better in pulled fly ball rate. If you take a quick glance at his spray chart, you’ll see home runs to all fields, and you’ll think, “What a balanced batted ball profile.” And then you’ll remember that he’s a switch-hitter. Raleigh is looking to lift the ball and yank it from both sides of the plate. His 30 homers are tied for 12th in baseball, but his 25 pulled homers are good for third. On the left is a spray chart that shows all of Raleigh’s career homers to the pull side and straightaway. On the right is a chart that shows his opposite field home runs.

This year, Raleigh’s 30 homers lead all catchers. He led all catchers with 30 last season too, and despite appearing in just 119 games and playing through a broken thumb and a torn ligament in his catching hand for more than a month, he also led all catchers with 27 in 2022. Only eight players have ever put up three 27-homer seasons while catching at least half the time. Here’s the list of players who have done it three times in a row: Lance Parrish, Mike Piazza, Johnny Bench, and Cal Raleigh. If you’re keeping score at home, that’s one eight-time All-Star, two inner-circle Hall of Famers, and Cal Raleigh, who again has never had a full season when he didn’t hit at least 27 homers. Among catchers with at least a thousand career plate appearances, Raleigh’s .227 ISO ranks fifth all-time, and his 144 ISO+ ranks 13th.

Put all that together, and Raleigh combines first-rate defense with a homer-heavy 109 career wRC+ (115 over the last three seasons). That’s a pretty compelling package, and it’s made Raleigh the second-best catcher in baseball no matter what timeframe you look at.

Our entire database shows 278 four-win seasons from 106 different catchers. Along with Raleigh, I counted just 20 who had put up three in a row, and the list once again reads like a who’s who of Hall of Famers, along with more recent framing standouts.

I’m not trying to say that Raleigh is destined for the Hall of Fame. I’m just trying to demonstrate that what he’s been doing doesn’t happen all that often, especially right out of the gate. From the moment he became a full-time starter, Raleigh has been one of the best catchers in baseball, and despite playing through injury at times, he’s been hands-down the most consistent. There’s no guarantee that this will continue. It’s hard to stay on top defensively, especially because catching techniques have changed radically in the last few years. Look at J.T. Realmuto, who was one of the league’s premier defenders for years, and then suddenly saw his framing fall off out of nowhere last season. It also looks more and more likely that the ABS system will be coming soon in some form to erase at least part of a catcher’s framing value. If nothing else, that just means that we should appreciate Raleigh’s current greatness all the more. He belongs in any conversation about the greatest catchers in the game right now, and it’s time he had the hardware to prove it.

We’re running out of season. With the field of contenders winnowed to the point that only two teams have Playoff Odds between 8% and 80%, much of the intrigue beyond jockeying for seeding concerns a race against the clock. Players have only so much time to recover from injuries, particularly new ones, and so some returns are in doubt. Their availability could very well affect how the playoffs unfold.

On that front, it was a weekend featuring bad news for some contenders as they reckoned with their latest bad breaks, figuratively and literally. Gavin Stone, the unexpected stalwart of the Dodgers rotation, landed on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation, while Jeff McNeil, one of the Mets’ hottest hitters, suffered a fractured wrist. Whit Merrifield, who’s done good work filling in at second base for the Braves, broke a bone in his foot, and, if we shift focus to the fringes of the Wild Card race, the Mariners Luis Castillo strained a hamstring. Each of these situations deserves a closer look, so pitter patter, let’s get at ‘er. Read the rest of this entry »

The NFL season kicks off tonight, with another game tomorrow, 13 more on Sunday, and a Monday Night Football matchup set to cap off the Week One slate. Millions will be tuning in, although not everyone will be able to watch their favorite team (or keep close tabs on their fantasy football squad). Among those missing out will be the vast majority of big leaguers. At the same time that pigskin luminaries like Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes are performing on the gridiron, major leaguers will be plying their trade on the baseball diamond. When you’re a professional athlete, forgoing other pastimes — watching other sports is but one of many — comes with the territory.

What is it like to miss out on things you’d be enjoying were it not for your responsibilities as a ballplayer? I asked several big league players for their perspectives on that very subject. Here is what they had to say.

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George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays outfielder: “I wouldn’t ever say ‘Why do I have to play today?’ but I love football. I’m a big football fan. When the NFL gets going, and college football gets going, it’s exciting for me. A lot of it is just a break from the constant everyday grind of baseball, having a chance to go to an NFL game, to a hockey game, to a concert. Anything like that. Read the rest of this entry »

Podcasts hosted by athletes — I don’t know about all that. But I did enjoy a recent clip from Mookie Betts’ podcast where he was talking to Cal Raleigh, who was comparing Zack Wheeler — perhaps the best pitcher in baseball — to his batterymate Bryan Woo.

“[Wheeler] is kind of like Woo,” Raleigh said. “He glides down the mound. And it’s so effortless. Some guys just have that natural glide down the mound, easy, and [the ball] just gets on you.”

Coincidentally, in a conversation in late August, Phillies minor league pitching coach Riley McCauley made the same comparison.

“[Woo] is very Wheeler-ish,” McCauley told me. Read the rest of this entry »