The Marlins were the subject of jokes aplenty this winter after they added two established second basemen, Luis Arraez and Jean Segura, to a roster that already featured multiple capable keystone defenders. Yet all jokes aside, Kim Ng’s unconventional method of roster construction has worked out quite well thus far. Arraez leads all primary second basemen with a 151 wRC+, and his defense is tolerable as long as he keeps hitting. Meanwhile, Jazz Chisholm Jr., though currently on the IL, has adjusted well to center field, and Jon Berti and Joey Wendle have been an excellent defensive tandem at shortstop.

However, the second baseman the Marlins signed to play third is struggling terribly. Segura is slashing .200/.268/.236 (the rare .200/.200/.200 batting line, also known as a Paul Janish), and he is one of only five qualified hitters without a home run (an achievement known as a Reggie Willits). His 43 wRC+ ranks last in baseball, as does his .231 wOBA and .504 OPS. The only qualified hitter with a lower WAR is José Abreu, who has had an additional five games in which to be dreadful. Segura’s only saving grace is that he has hit well in 15 high-leverage plate appearances (.385 AVG, 134 wRC+), but even so, his -1.31 WPA is the worst in the National League.

The last qualified batter to finish with a wRC+ below 45 was Clint Barmes, who posted a 38 wRC+ in 2006. Since then, only five other players have even finished below 50; typically, hitters either improve as the year goes on, or they don’t get enough playing time to qualify. As for the handful who lasted a full season with such a feeble bat, the only one to have been an above-average hitter throughout the rest of his career was Chris Davis of the Baltimore Orioles. His 46 wRC+ in 2017 was a huge step down from his career 117 wRC+ to that point. Read the rest of this entry »

Position changes can be risky. The outcome depends heavily on the timing and circumstances of the switch, and the natural ability of the player. Sometimes, rookies need to carve out a roster spot for themselves and end up switching on the fly, like Jordan Walker. His shift to the outfield is a work in progress, just like it would be for most rookies. Then there are cases of a more experienced player moving due to roster construction, as with Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s move to center field.

Chisholm’s switch was precipitated by the Marlins’ offseason trade for Luis Arraez. With the sixth-worst offense (88 wRC+) in all of baseball in 2022 and good starting pitching depth, a pitcher-hitter swap to improve the lineup was highly logical, and the Marlins saw their best chance to obtain an impact bat in Arraez. That created something of an infield logjam. With Joey Wendle penciled in at shortstop and Jean Segura at third, the question became what they would do with their young star, who was slated to start at second base. Soon after the announcement of the trade, Kim Ng revealed that Jazz would be moving to center field, their most important position of need. His speed, athleticism, and lack of premium defense on the infield made it worth a try. Read the rest of this entry »

For the purposes of researching this article, I went through Baseball Savant and watched several of Luis Arraez’s hits from the 2023 season. You can tell what kind of a heater he’s on by how the broadcast booth reacts when he gets a hit. Marlins play-by-play man Paul Severino, declaring that Arraez was in the midst of yet another multi-hit game, would chuckle as the ball touched outfield grass. On one occasion, Phillies announcer John Kruk muttered, “Jesus!” as Arraez dropped a triple down the right field line.

Arraez is so hot it’s entered the realm of the absurd. Through 15 games, he’s 24-for-51, mostly on singles that army crawl past bewildered infielders or fall softly in front of outfielders. As of Monday afternoon, he has yet to hit a ball with an exit velocity of 100 mph or greater. Ryan Mountcastle, who’s hitting .217 to Arraez’s .471, has 25 such batted balls.

The obvious thing to do in this situation would be to point out all the ways Arraez is getting lucky. He’s a fringy runner with a ninth-percentile (ninth-percentile!) hard-hit rate and a BABIP of .500, and so on and so forth. And ordinarily, I am the kind of relentless downer who goes around ruining other people’s good time. (Hope you enjoyed those wonderful shrimp tacos you had for lunch; the sea is full of microplastics and you’re going to die someday.) But I’m declaring Arraez’s hot start to be a negativity-free zone.

So let’s get to it. Is Arraez some kind of a wizard, or is he just getting lucky? The answer is yes. Read the rest of this entry »

If the Marlins are going to jump into playoff contention anytime soon, it will be on the back of their young pitchers. Of these, they have assembled many, with varied results. Sandy Alcantara just won the Cy Young. Trevor Rogers looked like a future Cy Young winner for a little bit, though not so much anymore. Max Meyer got hurt but should be back soon enough. Sixto Sánchez got hurt and might not be the back ever. The Marlins even declared a surplus in this area, trading Pablo López (and Zac Gallen, if you want to broaden your time horizons a little) for position players. Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera, and a partridge in a pear tree.

But Miami’s most promising young starter at the moment, other than Alcantara, is Jesús Luzardo. He faces the Phillies on Tuesday night having allowed just one earned run in 12 2/3 innings over his first two starts of the season. Read the rest of this entry »

Three Sundays ago, the answer to this column’s weekly quiz was Carlos Santana. The question was, “Which player has appeared in the most regular-season games over the past 10 seasons?” and the now-Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman had played in 1,440 — 13 more than Paul Goldschmidt and 40 more than Freddie Freeman and Anthony Rizzo.

Santana professed not to be aware of the distinction when I mentioned it to him earlier this week. He did seem pleased to hear it, and “humbly prideful” might be the best way to describe his reaction.

“I prepare,” said Santana, who celebrated his 37th birthday yesterday. “I prepare my body. I prepare mentally. I also try to enjoy the game every day. That’s why I can play a lot. The game is my passion. This is my 14th year and I want to play two more. Or maybe three more. Whatever God tells me, and what my body says I can do.”

Count Andrew McCutchen among those who are impressed by his teammate’s reliability and durability over the years.

“It’s really good, to be honest,” said McCutchen, who was likewise unaware of Santana’s distinction. “To be able to do it how he’s done it — he’s in [the lineup] more times than not —shows that he’s stayed healthy, which is a key to doing that. You have to be good enough to do it, too. You’ve got a whole lot of variables to be able to do what he’s done.” Read the rest of this entry »

The ribbon has been cut on the 2023 season and I wanted to push a few prospect updates live to The Board, including a few tweaks to the Top 100 list. This update also includes publication of scouting reports such that every rookie currently on an active roster now has a current record on The Board, and a few additions the farm systems I’ve already audited during this cycle based on things I saw during spring training.

Let’s start with injury-related updates to the Top 100. Phillies top prospect Andrew Painter has a partially torn UCL and is approaching the end of his four-week shutdown period. Rule of thumb: Among a similarly talented group of players, you’d most want to have the healthy guys. Painter slides from fifth overall to 12th, right behind newly minted big leaguers Anthony Volpe and Jordan Walker, who are comparably talented, healthy, and making a big league impact right now. This is just a cosmetic change to the list; Painter’s evaluation hasn’t changed. If it turns out he needs Tommy John, whether or not I slide him any further will depend on its timing. If rest doesn’t work and his surgery is timed such that he also misses all of 2024, that’s the worst case scenario for Painter and the Phillies. We know for sure that Nationals pitching prospect Cade Cavalli needs Tommy John, so in a similar fashion he falls within the 50 FV player tier, sliding from 63rd overall to 99th, right next to Mason Miller of the A’s, with whom he now shares injury-related relief risk.

Tigers prospect Jackson Jobe, the third overall pick in 2021, is going to miss three to six months due to lumbar spine inflammation. This injury is more novel than a TJ, and Jobe isn’t exactly coming off a great 2022. Unfortunately, this situation merits a more meaningful shift, but I still want to reflect the upside of a healthy Jobe, so he downshifts to the 45+ FV tier, where the most talented of the young high-variance prospects reside. Assuming he comes back late this season, he’ll be one of the higher-priority evaluations in the minors. Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve reached the point in the offseason when it’s time for one of my favorite/most hated preseason traditions: my attempt to predict breakouts and busts. Since any breakouts or busts beyond what a projection system suggests are naturally going to be low-probability outcomes, there’s a high probability of me looking pretty silly — something writers try to avoid. Let’s start by looking back at how smart I was last year…or how foolish:

First, the bad news. Kelenic and Adell were both just awful, and I would definitely call 2022 a giant miss for both players as they enter their post-prospect period. I suspect there’s more hope to still be had for Kelenic than Adell, but I wouldn’t exactly call myself prescient about either. Kepler’s breakout didn’t happen at all, and his power all but disappeared. Anderson I’ll call an incomplete because of injury, and while Higashioka did match his entire previous career in WAR, that was largely due to defense, which I can hardly claim credit for predicting. Hiura did hit far better than he had recently, but he also didn’t exactly get a ton of playing time with the Brewers, who appeared to have lost interest in him. There were a few triumphs, however: Kwan and Lux both had excellent seasons, especially the former. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the USA World Baseball Classic roster’s so-so starting pitching, the difficulty of recruiting top pitchers for the tournament, and Japan’s staff, Meg’s college baseball weekend and Juan Soto sighting, Orioles owner John Angelos’s latest comments, and MLB’s new Economic Reform Committee, plus a Stat Blast (31:56) about the greatest players who were never the best player on their team and an observation about the spread of projected win totals in the AL and NL. Then they continue their 2023 season preview series by discussing the Milwaukee Brewers (41:34) with Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and the Miami Marlins (1:21:34) with Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald, plus Past Blasts from 1971 (1:58:43) and a postscript (2:05:13).

Audio intro: Willie Nelson, “Second Fiddle”
Audio interstitial 1: Slade, “Don’t Blame Me”
Audio interstitial 2: Sci-Fi Soldier, “I Am in Miami”
Audio outro: Camera Obscura, “The False Contender”

Link to USA WBC roster
Link to DR roster breakdown
Link to Japan roster breakdown
Link to SP projections
Link to Rosenthal on recruiting pitching
Link to L.A. Times on WBC insurance
Link to Ben on WBC injuries
Link to Wash U on WBC injuries
Link to draft prospect rankings
Link to unrecognized Greinke
Link to Angelos comments
Link to Middleton comments
Link to Drellich on new committee
Link to Stat Blast spreadsheet
Link to FG playoff odds
Link to Brewers offseason tracker
Link to Brewers depth chart
Link to Todd’s spring training preview
Link to Todd’s author archive
Link to Burnes comments
Link to Jay Jaffe on Burns
Link to Burnes’s 2022 splits
Link to team payroll rankings
Link to Marlins offseason tracker
Link to Marlins depth chart
Link to Jordan on Pérez and Alcantara
Link to Jordan’s author archive
Link to “Marlins Will Soar”
Link to MLBTR on De La Cruz
Link to MLB.com on De La Cruz
Link to 1971 article source
Link to David Lewis’s Twitter
Link to David Lewis’s Substack
Link to sportslogos site
Link to bannermark article
Link to second bannermark article
Link to third bannermark article
Link to fourth bannermark article
Link to fifth bannermark article
Link to sixth bannermark article
Link to 1984 MVP trophy
Link to Phillies redesign logo
Link to ’76 centennial logo
Link to more on centennial logo
Link to info on Pepsi logo
Link to FG’s LF projections
Link to FG on Grossman signing
Link to FG’s 2B projections
Link to Randy Johnson comment
Link to Henry Q&A
Link to other Henry Q&A
Link to info on NESN edits
Link to Werner on booing
Link to Rosenthal on arbitration

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The Oakland A’s and Miami Marlins pulled off a minor trade over the weekend, with the A’s sending former first-round pick A.J. Puk down to Florida while another former first-rounder, outfielder JJ Bleday, headed to the CurrentCorporateName Coliseum. Puk had arguably his best — and healthiest — season as a pro in 2022, appearing in 66 1/3 innings over 62 games, all in relief, while putting up a 3.12 ERA and 3.69 FIP for the A’s. Bleday’s season was notably less successful, especially after a July call-up that led to a .167/.277/.309 line with the parent club while basically being a full-time starter.

For the Marlins, the draw of bringing Puk in is obvious. As I’ve noted in the past, I’m generally leery of the Marlins trading offense for pitching, considering how little they have of the former. But in this case, it’s hard to really describe Bleday as “offense,” while Puk is coming off an very successful season. While Puk succeeding as a late-inning reliever isn’t the sexiest outcome given his status as a prospect, it’s an important building block considering the time he’s missed as a pro due to Tommy John surgery, a shoulder surgery, and an annoying biceps issue. Just the fact that he came out the other side of those maladies with his upper-90s fastball and command both intact is a pretty big deal in my book and ought to have made Puk interesting to most teams.

Puk’s actual role for Miami is far from set in stone. It would be tempting to just call him a late-inning reliever — he’s arguably the top lefty in the bullpen and is less heartburn-inducing than Tanner Scott and more explosive than Steven Okert. But it’s hard to definitively close the book on him as a starter given his pedigree, build, and desire to start in the majors. The A’s had hinted that they were willing to explore using him as a starter in the spring, though that’s no guarantee that the Marlins will have the same willingness. That said, it should also be noted that the Marlins have been very reluctant to move some of their explosive young pitchers with injury issues to the bullpen full-time. Puk the Reliever is a solid contributor, but not a star, while Puk the Starter could still achieve stardom if he managed to stay healthy. Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s play some word association. I’m going to name someone, and I want you to say the first two words that come to mind. Okay, I’m ready: Richard Bleier. Did “middle reliever” jump to the fore? You’re exactly right; Bleier spent 2022 chipping in mid-quality work in the middle innings for the Marlins. One more: Matt Barnes. Did you say “middle reliever” this time? If not, maybe it was “ex-closer.” Barnes was a roller coaster ride of a closer right until he wasn’t, and he spent 2022 pitching anywhere from the sixth to ninth inning depending on need, at least when he wasn’t on the IL.

This year, I can guarantee you that those two won’t be reprising their roles. On Monday, the Red Sox and Marlins swapped their relievers in a one-for-one trade. It’s not even a contract-based swap; both players are under contract for 2023 with a team option for 2024, and the Red Sox sent $5 million to Miami to even out the payroll expenditure on the deal. It’s simpler than that: I want your reliever, and you can take mine. Read the rest of this entry »