I might as well throw out all the usual caveats up front. It’s April. Sample sizes are still miniscule. The ball might be different. The rules are definitely different. I could go on. All of that is true, but it doesn’t change this essential fact: José Alvarado is on an otherworldly tear right now, putting up best-reliever-in-baseball numbers for a Phillies team that desperately needs the help.
Let’s start with the numbers, because they’re overwhelming. Alvarado has faced 29 batters so far this year. He’s struck out 18 of them. That’s a 62.1% strikeout rate, or as I like to call it, a made up strikeout rate. You can’t conceive of a 62.1% strikeout rate. It’s nonsense math. Nearly two-thirds of the batters who have come to the plate against Alvarado this year have walked back to the dugout with nothing to show for it but a sad face.
As you can no doubt imagine, you need to miss a lot of bats to put up strikeout numbers like that. Alvarado has posted a 20.8% swinging strike rate so far this season, seventh-best among relievers even in the small sample of April, when outliers rule. That’s a career high for him, obviously, but not by as much as you’d think: He posted a delectable 16.7% mark for all of 2022. Read the rest of this entry »
Well, shoot. After grounding out to shortstop in the second inning of Wednesday night’s game against the Nationals, Jorge Mateo was removed due to hip discomfort. The Baltimore shortstop is officially day-to-day, and Rotowire reports that he seems to have avoided a serious injury, but the timing still stinks. Mateo is on the hottest streak of his short career: After 16 games, he has a 192 wRC+ and 1.1 WAR, tying him for third and fourth in baseball, respectively. Naturally, he wasn’t going to be able to keep this up for a whole season; he has a .378 BABIP, and his wOBA exceeds his xwOBA by 59 points. It’s April 20, and the regression monster is laying in wait right for him right now.
But that’s part of what makes his hot start so fun. This is Jorge Mateo! The light-hitting, glove-first speedster. He was a fun player when he was just stealing bases, making jump throws from the hole, and trying to beat out infield hits. All of a sudden he’s got a .638 slugging percentage. In the last 16 games, he’s raised his career wRC+ by 9%. Obviously, I’m going to examine whether any of this looks sustainable, but first let’s take a moment to enjoy what we’re seeing while spring is in the world. Read the rest of this entry »
What an absolute rocket. With a 118.2 mph exit velocity, Jake Burger’s three-run dinger was the second-hardest hit ball of the season so far. Harder than anything that’s come off the bat of Aaron Judge or Yordan Alvarez in 2023. Hard enough that this ball went 417 feet with just a 21 degree launch angle. That’s not the launch angle of your standard-issue ballistic arc moon shot. Anyone who watched La Fleche Wallonne on Wednesday can tell you it’s possible to ride a bicycle up a 21-degree incline.
But that’s just the kind of week Burger’s been having. Since being recalled to the majors on April 6, Burger has eight hits. Seven of them have gone for extra bases, and five of those have been home runs. Of those five home runs, four have come in the past six days. Back in the day, the only way to display that much power in Chicago was to tilt a presidential election for John F. Kennedy.
It was not always ordained to be so. With a couple weeks to go in spring training, I asked Burger what he thought of his prospects for making the Opening Day roster. He came into camp facing entrenched starters at basically every position he’s capable of playing; if he was competing for anything, it was a spot on the bench. But with Luis Robert Jr., Eloy Jiménez, and Yoán Moncada at the WBC, he got all the playing time he could ask for in camp.
“I’ve been in basically every game,” he said. “I’m fortunate to be in that position and to be able to compete for a job. Take it day by day and just be myself. The rest will take care of itself.”
It’s the kind of answer that would make Crash Davis stand up and applaud, but Burger gave it with conspicuous confidence for someone whose major league career has been anything but a sure thing.
In 2017, Burger was the no. 11 overall pick out of Missouri State, where he played with future big leaguers Matt Hall and Dylan Coleman, fellow first-round pick Jon Harris, and a pitcher named Trey Turner. (Not to be confused with Phillies shortstop Trea Turner, former Virginia Tech wide receiver Tré Turner, or five-time Pro Bowl offensive guard Trai Turner.) Burger was one of the best mid-major hitters in the country over three years in Springfield, boasting back-to-back seasons of hitting at least .300/.400/.600 with at least 20 home runs as a sophomore and junior. He figured to rise through the minors quickly.
But four days into Cactus League play in his second pro season, Burger tore his Achilles tendon. Ten weeks later he tore it again. He missed all of 2019 with a heel injury, then all of 2020 due to the pandemic canceling minor league play. Concerns about Burger’s long-term suitability for third base were not alleviated when his ankles and feet betrayed him, and few young hitters can survive going three seasons without playing a competitive game.
In the meantime, the White Sox were stocking up on competitors for playing time. Moncada moved from second base to third base in 2019. Jiménez and Robert established themselves as big league regulars in the outfield, and Chicago spent top 10 picks on Andrew Vaughn and Zack Collins, a college catcher who profiled as a future first baseman or DH. When Burger did finally make it to the majors, he got hurt again, this time breaking his wrist in July.
Burger missed out on the Opening Day roster, but he didn’t have to wait long in the minors. Within a week, Jiménez tweaked a hamstring and went on the IL, and when he was ready to return, Moncada went on the IL himself with a back injury. Now, Burger is not only on the roster, he’s Chicago’s starting third baseman.
But even after the opportunity to play opened up, Burger wasn’t going to make much headway striking out 30% of the time. He was good at the plate when healthy — a 113 wRC+ in 183 PA last season — but not enough to force a more established player out of the lineup.
“Cutting down the strikeouts and working on bat-to-ball skills was a big factor in this offseason,” he said. “If I can consistently make contact, the ball is going to jump.”
In addition to making some mechanical changes, Burger also tried to refine his pitch selection. He said he wanted to lay off low pitches — even strikes — that he was more likely to ground out than hit hard in the air. Burger can hit the ball hard, as his home run off Falter would indicate, but it’s easiest for him when the pitch is either at belt-level or up in the zone and away. Pitches low in the zone have traditionally caused him problems:
Despite this, last season he swung at about two-thirds of pitches in the lowest third of the strike zone. That low-middle sector, with a 71% swing rate, netted Burger a contact rate of 79% but a slugging percentage of just .222 on the balls he did manage to put in play. He said his goal this past offseason was to work on “creating a floor in the strike zone.”
So how did he do that? Cool gadgets.
“I use WIN virtual reality, which is pretty cool,” he said. That system involves a bat sensor and a VR headset, which allows him to simulate at-bats off any pitcher in baseball. “Also, my training facility in Nashville has been huge, using an iPitch machine, and you can put in any pitch in the major leagues.”
It’s not the real thing, but it’s close enough for someone who’s finally catching up after three seasons on the shelf. It’s a small sample, but through Wednesday’s games, it appears that Burger’s time on the holodeck has paid off:
If this is a genuine reinvention for Burger and not just small sample noise, it comes at an interesting time. It’s been more than half a decade since the White Sox blew up the talented and cost-controlled core of Chris Sale, Adam Eaton, and José Quintana. And after back-to-back playoff appearances in 2020 and 2021 generated a grand total of zero advancements to the second round, the Sox look like they’re going backward.
Until now, it looked like Burger was just one in a line of homegrown players who failed to live up to (admittedly astronomical) expectations. And he might still be that. We’ll see. But that core is now in what should be its prime — including Burger, who turned 27 two weeks ago — and there are still open questions about Vaughn’s power and Jiménez’s ability to stay on the field, among other shortcomings across the roster. Soon, it might be time to tear it all down again, whether Burger keeps homering four times a week or not.
Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Atlanta Braves. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as our own observations. This is the third year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.
A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.
All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »
Clayton Kershaw didn’t need his 200th career win to burnish his Hall of Fame credentials, but on Tuesday night at Dodger Stadium, in his first start with the milestone within reach, he secured it in brilliant fashion. In an outing bookended by his pitching out of jams, Kershaw tossed seven scoreless innings against the Mets, a team he has utterly dominated throughout his career.
In securing the milestone, Kershaw joined Justin Verlander (244 wins), Zack Greinke (223), and Max Scherzer (203) among active pitchers, and Hall of Famers Don Sutton and Don Drysdale as those who won at least their first 200 games as Dodgers. He became the 121st pitcher in major league history to reach the plateau, and just the 13th to do so entirely with one team:
Before we go further, it’s time for the usual caveat about pitcher wins: Regular readers know that I generally avoid dwelling upon the stat, because in this increasingly specialized era, they owe as much to adequate offensive, defensive, and bullpen support as they do to a pitcher’s own performance. While one doesn’t need to know how many wins a pitcher amassed in a season or a career to appreciate his true value — and single-season totals in particular can be wildly misleading — those totals do affect the popular perceptions of their careers and still carry a certain cachet among players. Read the rest of this entry »
Tucker Davidson is looking to establish himself as a Los Angeles Angel. Acquired by the Anaheim-based AL club at last year’s trade deadline in the deal that sent Raisel Iglesias to Atlanta, Davidson is doing so with an approach heavily influenced by analytics. An admitted pitching nerd, the 27-year-old left-hander is well-versed in the metrics, and he’s using them to improve his craft.
He’s off to a solid start this season. Currently pitching out of the bullpen — the bulk of his professional experience has been as a starter — Davidson has a 2.53 ERA and a 2.48 FIP over four appearances comprising 10-and-two-thirds innings. His ledger includes both a win and a save.
Davidson sat down to talk pitching when the Angels visited Fenway Park this past weekend.
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David Laurila: You’re a pitching nerd. How did that come about?
Tucker Davidson: “I kind of fell into it — how the ball moves, and the whole analytical part — around 2015-2016 when I was in college and first getting drafted. I was interested in why my fastball didn’t spin a bunch, but I could still throw four-seams and get swings and misses up in the zone. I wondered why I couldn’t make a two-seam sink much. Why is my slider good? It was basically a ‘Why is that?’ Read the rest of this entry »
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a force of nature. He’s one of the best hitters in baseball, and in a very obvious way: he scalds the baseball to all fields and hits a bunch of home runs. Last year was a down year, and he still left the yard 32 times. He perennially records some of the hardest-hit batted balls in the game. When you think about a prototypical first baseman, Guerrero’s combination of power and hit tool is probably what you’re picturing.
One of the impressive parts of Guerrero’s career has been his ability to limit strikeouts while still getting to his power. See, low strikeout rates aren’t an inherently great thing. If you don’t strike out very often but don’t do any damage when you put the ball in play, you’re not really making a good trade. Adam Frazier is a good example of this type of hitter. He struck out just 12.1% of the time last year, but posted an 81 wRC+ anyway because when he did make contact, it was generally weak. You can probably conjure a picture of this type of hitter on your favorite team. You love that they never give away an at-bat, but hate that they never take matters into their own hands and park one in the seats or smack one off the power alley wall.
Guerrero doesn’t suffer from that problem. He struck out just 16.4% of the time in 2022, but when he made contact, he wasn’t Fraziering it up out there. Let’s get that in numbers: in his career, Frazier is batting .317 with a .456 slugging percentage when he ends a plate appearance with a batted ball, good for a .327 wOBA. Guerrero is hitting .351 with a .616 slugging percentage, which works out to a .403 wOBA. One of these things is not like the other. That’s why low strikeout rates are great statistical markers for power hitters and yet broadly uninteresting in the population as a whole. What you do with those extra balls in play matters a ton, as Michael Baumann covered yesterday, and with far more Pitbull references than I could even think up. Read the rest of this entry »
The Twins and Pablo López agreed on Monday to a four-year contract extension worth $73.5 million, ensuring that the team’s newest starting pitcher will stay in the Twin Cities through the 2027 season. López has been dynamite in his first four starts for Minnesota, allowing only five total runs and holding the current league crown in strikeouts, edging out Gerrit Cole and Jacob deGrom.
It’s not a surprise to find out the Twins are big fans of López. Otherwise, they would not have traded three years of a cost-controlled Luis Arraez, who is coming off a batting average title, a Silver Slugger award, and an All-Star appearance, in order to acquire his services. The extension would have made sense on the day of the trade; it makes even more sense with the very real chance that López has found another gear. Read the rest of this entry »
Steven Kwan and Myles Straw have extremely similar profiles. Both are small, speedy outfielders with great gloves. Kwan was a center fielder in both college and the minors, but Straw’s presence forced him over to left, and both took home Gold Gloves in 2022. On offense, they feature almost no pop, but they both survive through excellent bat-to-ball skills and plate discipline. They chase pitches outside the strike zone approximately never, and somehow they swing and miss even less often. You could practically snap their Baseball Savant sliders together like Legos.
Kwan’s is on the bottom and Straw’s is on top, but it doesn’t matter all that much; in most categories they’re nearly identical. That’s not to say that their performance is identical. Thanks largely to Kwan’s truly elite ability to avoid strikeouts and his lower groundball rate (plus a bit of batted ball luck), he put up a 124 wRC+ in 2022, nearly twice Straw’s. Still, the two Cleveland outfielders are very much playing the same game.
Crashing this scrappy little party after a May call-up was Oscar Gonzalez, the 6-foot-4, 240-pound right fielder with big power potential, no defense to speak of, and so little plate discipline that he finished the season just 0.4% shy of the worst chase rate humanly possible (also known as Javier Báez’s’s chase rate). He also absolutely towers over the 5-foot-9 Kwan and the 5-foot-10 Straw. Gonzalez looks like he could pick up the two Gold Glove winners and use them to play G.I. Joes. Read the rest of this entry »
The mighty Giancarlo Stanton has fallen once again. On Sunday afternoon, the 33-year-old was diagnosed with a Grade 2 strain in his left hamstring, according to Marly Rivera of ESPN. The Yankees placed him on the 10-day injured list, recalling top 100 prospect Oswald Peraza to take his place.
After he crushed a 110-mph double on Saturday afternoon, Stanton returned to the Yankees dugout while Aaron Hicks trotted out to second base. It wouldn’t be the first time the slow-moving slugger was replaced on the bases, so there wasn’t any reason to worry in the moment. Indeed, the DH walked off the field and was greeted with high fives in the dugout, where he remained to watch the game. As it turned out, however, Stanton had requested the pinch runner himself. He recognized the pain in his hamstring and knew immediately that something was wrong. Although Stanton didn’t show any outward signs of pain, it was certainly an awkward play. He thought he’d hit the ball over the fence and only realized he needed to run as he was rounding first.
While Stanton’s decision to prematurely marvel at his handiwork turned out to be a mistake, there’s no reason to blame his poor baserunning for his injury. The unfortunate truth is that Stanton’s legs – his left in particular – are quite injury-prone. He has spent time on the IL with various leg injuries in each of the past five seasons. In 2019, he sprained the PCL in his right knee and missed 72 games. The year after that, it was a left hamstring strain, much like the one he just suffered; he was out for five weeks. In 2021, he lost two weeks to a left quad strain, and last year, he missed 10 days with right ankle inflammation and another month with tendinitis in his left Achilles. Read the rest of this entry »
