A busy early offseason continued apace on Tuesday, with the Blue Jays coming to terms with pitcher José Berríos on a seven-year deal worth up to $131 million, pending the usual physical. The new pact buys out the last year of his arbitration eligibility and includes limited trade protection and an opt-out clause that the former Twins ace can exercise after the 2026 season.

It would be hard to characterize this one as a major surprise. The players who went to Minnesota in return for Berríos, Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson, were ranked here as the second- and third-best prospects in Toronto’s system, respectively. To get a richer haul at the deadline, you had to trade literally Max Scherzer and Trea Turner. It’s not the type of move you make if you want the pitcher to walk in 14 months with only a possible draft compensation pick in exchange.

Berríos hasn’t developed into a superstar, but he’s been consistently in that 110–120 ERA+, borderline-ace territory since being promoted to Minnesota for good in early 2017. And he has one thing that many other star pitchers lack: a nearly flawless record of avoiding injury; as a major leaguer, he hasn’t made an appearance on the Injured List or missed a single start due to injury. The most he’s been nicked up was being pulled from a start because of a blister in 2019 and some abdominal tightness this September. It’s not just luck; injury time is a useful predictor of future injury time.

At the time of the trade, Toronto’s rotation ranked 19th in baseball in total WAR, nearly a win behind the Royals at 18. The starting pitching was coming around with the emergence of Alek Manoah in June, but he missed some time with a back contusion stemming from a fall in the dugout, and Nate Pearson’s groin problems were enough to keep him from serving as a reinforcement down the stretch. In a packed wild-card race with the Jays 4 1/2 games back at the trade deadline, Berríos provided an opportunity for a significant upgrade in the rotation, and he was as good as advertised, putting up a 3.58 ERA and a 3.28 FIP over 12 starts and throwing seven consecutive quality starts to finish his 2021 campaign.

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Unless you’re a diehard fan, you’d be hard pressed to name a single member of the Marlins bullpen. Given that they traded away a bunch of their relievers in July and still look like they’re a few years away from building a true contender, that’s not surprising. Building a lockdown relief corps isn’t the top priority based on where they are in their rebuild. But GM Kim Ng mentioned during last week’s General Manager Meetings that adding depth to the bullpen was part of the offseason to-do list — a bit of surprise given the context above. They started to address that depth right away, too, acquiring right-handed pitcher Louis Head on Sunday from the Rays for a player to be named later or cash considerations.

Miami’s relief corps was pretty solid in 2021, with the third best park- and league-adjusted FIP in the National League, 8% better than league average. But Marlins relievers weren’t exactly flamethrowers; collectively, they posted a 22.0% strikeout rate, the fourth-worst mark in baseball. Instead, the team employed a bunch of pitchers who ran above-average ground-ball rates, helping them successfully manage the contact they did allow. As a group, they had the fifth-highest ground-ball rate and second-lowest barrel rate in baseball.

Bass was signed to a two-year deal last offseason, making him the highest paid member of this group. A surprising number of minor league free agents ended up making a solid contribution in the majors, and the rest were acquired via the same kind of under-the-radar trade that brought Head into the fold. Despite all their success this year, the average age of these relievers is 30.3 years old. It’s a competent collection of relievers assembled from the castoffs of other organizations, and Head fits in perfectly.
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The following article is part of a series concerning the 2022 Golden Days Era Committee ballot, covering managers and long-retired players whose candidacies will be voted upon on December 5. For an introduction to this year’s ballot, see here, and for an introduction to JAWS, see here. Several profiles in this series are adapted from work previously published at SI.com, Baseball Prospectus, and Futility Infielder. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Tony Oliva

Cuban emigré Tony Oliva spent his entire 15-year career (1962-76) with the Twins, and for a while, he appeared to be Cooperstown-bound. A flashy five-tool player at the outset of his career, he took home AL Rookie of the Year honors in 1964, made eight All-Star teams, and won a trio of batting titles, including a pair in his first two full seasons (1964 and ’65), making him the first player to do so; in the latter year, the sweet-swinging lefty helped the Twins to their first pennant. Unfortunately, a series of knee injuries diminished Oliva’s effectiveness, cut into his playing time in his 30s, and led to an early departure from the majors.

Oliva’s origin story is a confusing one. He was born Pedro Oliva II in Pinar del Rio, a rural province of Cuba, the third of 10 children. However, like his countryman Minnie Minoso, there’s some ambiguity of the year of his birth. Baseball Reference and Major League Baseball report his birthdate as July 20, 1938, meaning that he was 24 when he debuted, 26 when he won Rookie of the Year honors (at the conclusion of his age-25 season), and 38 when he played his last game. By the player’s own account in his autobiography, he was born on July 20, 1941, and used older brother Antonio’s birth certificate to acquire a passport and leave Cuba in the aftermath of the 1959 Fidel Castro-led revolution, hence his being known as Tony. Read the rest of this entry »

The Angels made their first splash of the offseason on Tuesday by signing Noah Syndergaard to a one-year, $21 million deal, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan. He was no. 15 on our top 50 free agent rankings despite missing all of 2020 because of Tommy John surgery on his right elbow, and though he was expected back early in 2021, a large setback in his recovery cost him just almost the entirety of that season as well. Two innings out of the bullpen in late September is all we’ve seen out of him in the last two years.

A one-year deal this winter makes a lot of sense for Syndergaard, who can rebuild his value in hopes of getting a long-term contract next offseason. It’s less of a no-brainer for the Angels, as there is no opportunity to cash in on future years in case of a bounce-back, and it’s hard to imagine Syndergaard will be in top form in 2022, given the thick layer of rust that surely needs to be knocked off of him. Most teams probably viewed signing him as a two-year project. Look no further than his 2018 season, though, to see the outcome the Angels envision. Coming off a torn lat muscle that cost him most of his 2017 campaign, he proceeded to put up a 3.03 ERA/2.80 FIP over 154.1 innings despite diminished velocity.

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On Monday, the Braves announced the signing of a backup backstop, adding catcher Manny Piña on two-year, $8 million contact. Also included in the agreement is a club option for 2024 valued at $4 million that comes without a buyout. Piña will slide in behind Travis d’Arnaud — who is also signed through 2023 — on Atlanta’s depth chart.

On the surface, the move is a relatively minor one. Piña, the Brewers’ longest-tenured player at the time of his departure, appeared in 75 games last season, making just 52 starts behind the dish as the backup to Omar Narváez. In that time, he was relatively productive, slashing .189/.293/.439 in 208 plate appearances, good for a 95 wRC+. He was also quite solid behind the plate, throwing out 30% of attempted base stealers, notably above the league-average of 25%. This is not a new trait, either: Piña has boasted an above-average ability to control the running game throughout his career, with a 35% caught-stealing rate. He’s also a solid framer, with his numbers really taking a step forward in recent seasons. Since 2019, Piña has been worth +11.6 framing runs above-average, ranking ninth in baseball despite not even catching 1,000 innings in that time. (Tyler Flowers is the only other catcher in the top 10 with fewer than 1,000 innings caught.) Read the rest of this entry »

Position: Minor League Hitting Coach

Primary Purpose
The Cleveland Guardians are currently seeking a Minor League Hitting Coach to join the Player Development Department.The ideal candidate will possess a passion for player and personal growth, experience integrating multiple information sources to create and implement hitting plans, and a thorough understanding of skill acquisition principles. Excellent applicants will demonstrate curiosity, creativity, and a drive to learn new concepts to problem solve. First and foremost, we are looking for great people! Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of a series concerning the 2022 Golden Days Era Committee ballot, covering managers and long-retired players whose candidacies will be voted upon on December 5. For an introduction to this year’s ballot, see here, and for an introduction to JAWS, see here. Several profiles in this series are adapted from work previously published at SI.com, Baseball Prospectus, and Futility Infielder. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Jim Kaat

A southpaw renowned for working quickly and keeping hitters off balance, Jim Kaat spent 25 years in the majors (1959-83), more than all but two pitchers, and won 283 games. The ace of some excellent mid-1960s Twins teams, he squared off against Sandy Koufax three times in the 1965 World Series, including Game 7, which he lost, and he was foiled again by the Dodgers’ lefty in his best shot at a Cy Young award the following year. After spending parts of 15 seasons with the Twins, he enjoyed a renaissance with the White Sox and then bounced around for another eight seasons, a testament to the adage that if you’re left-handed and can throw strikes, you can pitch forever.

Kaat was born on November 7, 1938, in Zeeland, Michigan, a town of about 3,000 at the time in the western part of the state. An effective but undersized pitcher through high school (5-feet-10, 170 pounds), he enrolled at Hope College in Holland, Michigan after failing to secure an athletic scholarship. Thanks to a growth spurt, he grew to 6-foot-4, 200 pounds, and attracted the attention of scouts. In June 1957, he signed with the Washington Senators for a bonus of $4,000, bypassing a $25,000 offer from the White Sox, which would have made him a “bonus baby,” requiring him to remain in the majors for two full seasons, possibly interfering with his development. Read the rest of this entry »

R.J. Dabovich was a strikeout machine in his first professional season. Overpowering the opposition with a two-pitch mix, the 23-year-old right-hander fanned 62, and allowed just 15 hits, in 32-and-a-third innings between High-A Eugene and Double-A Richmond. The 2020 fourth-round pick out of Arizona State University put up those numbers in 31 relief outings, a workload that was truncated by five weeks on the shelf due to a mild back strain. Currently the No. 26 prospect in the San Francisco Giants system, Dabovich represented the Scottsdale Scorpions in Saturday’s Fall Stars Game.

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David Laurila: You had the highest strikeout rate (48.8%) in the minors this year. Are you at all surprised by how dominant you were?

R.J. Dabovich: “I am a little bit. I mean, I’d never really been ‘a strikeout guy.’ At Arizona State, I was a starter in my sophomore year and was like eight or nine Ks per nine. Nothing too crazy. Moving to the bullpen bumped it up a little bit [13.1 per nine], but nothing like it was this year.

“After I got drafted by the Giants, I was given this pitch plan for what they wanted me to do. They said that my K-rate would increase, but I had no idea it would jump like it did. So I definitely surprised myself by how well I executed my plan, the plan they made for me.”

Laurila: How did you end up moving to the bullpen at ASU? Read the rest of this entry »

The Tigers have been going through a prolonged down period. The last season they finished above .500 was 2016, and the intervening years have been brutal — 2021 was the first year where they won even 40% of their games since that ’16 season. This year’s team was full of interesting players, and Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson should be ready soon, but the Tigers still needed a talent infusion if they wanted to compete next year.

Enter Eduardo Rodriguez, a perfect fit for the Tigers. Rodriguez signed a five-year, $77 million deal to join Detroit. He’s the first big signing of the offseason, and the symbolism of the Tigers opening the free agency market as they open their window of contention is fun to think about, even if it’s mainly just a fun fact. The Tigers are coming! Let’s talk about three things in order: what Rodriguez brings to the table, why Detroit wanted a starter, and the particulars of his contract.

First things first: Rodriguez isn’t your average 4.74 ERA starter. He was quite poor in the run prevention department this year, but under the hood, his statistics looked far more enticing. He set a career high in strikeout rate and a career low in walk rate, welcome improvements for a pitcher who was already above average. He made 31 starts, showing no rust after missing all of the 2020 season due to a heart condition. He missed as many bats as ever, surrendered fewer barrels than the average pitcher, and generally looked like a star. Read the rest of this entry »

The National League Rookie of the Year award was announced on Monday evening, with Jonathan India taking the victory with 29 first-place votes. India was Cincinnati’s eighth Rookie of the Year, but the team’s first since Scott Williamson in 1999. That number 29 turned out to be surprisingly important personally as, to my surprise, I was the only one to give Marlins pitcher Trevor Rogers a first-place vote. I expected India to win, but not to take Andrew Baggarly’s spot as the unanimity denier that enraged a fanbase.

Arguing about awards was one of my first baseball-related activities as a teenage stathead in the mid-1990s. Being much younger and slightly more foolish than I am now, it boggled my young mind that someone could think that Mo Vaughn had a better year than Albert Belle, or that Dante Bichette was the second most valuable player in the National League. I mean, someone was wrong on the internet!

Twenty years later, I find myself, through a series of unlikely events, voting on baseball’s year-end awards. In my six years of BBWAA membership, I’ve gotten to vote four times by virtue of being in a local chapter with only about a dozen active members. The years I vote, I usually take most of the entire last weekend of the season to make sure I’ve put my best effort forward at deciphering the season’s results. If someone’s going to ask me to be an expert, I’m going to try to act like one, rather than send off my ballot based on fleeting feelings while sitting in the smallest room of my house.

Any time I vote, I write an article like this, because I believe transparency to be vital; every BBWAA vote, including Hall of Fame votes — the Association proposed this, but the Hall of Fame vetoed it — ought to be open for public scrutiny. I don’t know if I’ve arrived at the “right” answer, if such a thing is possible, but I’ve given the best answer I can that’s consistent with my worldview. That’s my responsibility to the players in question and the fans of those players.

Below, I’ve also thrown in some preliminary ZiPS five-year projections for the players I voted for. Projections were no part of my voting, so consider it a bonus for watching me torture the English language as if it were Cary Elwes on a bathroom floor. Read the rest of this entry »