Three of the best handful of hitters on the planet were on the same field at Yankee Stadium yesterday, and the Phillies/Mets rivalry is as venomous as any in baseball, but take a straw poll of the real sickos and they’ll tell you the marquee Division Series tilt is the one between the Dodgers and Padres. It’s not only a bitter intradivisional matchup, it marks the MLB playoff debut of the Face of Baseball and features so many of the game’s stars that this paragraph would need to cup its hands together to carry all of their names. Game 1 absolutely delivered on the hype, as the teams traded haymakers every other inning for the first half of an incredibly tense contest before the Dodgers’ relievers snuffed out whatever embers of a rally the Padres could muster from the fifth inning on. Los Angeles won 7-5 to take a 1-0 lead in the best-of-five series. Read the rest of this entry »

Justyn-Henry Malloy was in the Atlanta Braves organization when he appeared as a guest on FanGraphs Audio in October 2022, this while finishing up his first full professional season in the Arizona Fall League. He became a Tiger soon thereafter. In early December of that year, Detroit acquired the now-24-year-old outfielder, along with Jake Higginbotham, in exchange for Joe Jiménez.

Then a promising-yet-unpolished 2021 sixth-round pick out of Georgia Tech, Malloy was described in our trade recap as possessing “a combination of power and patience.” It was the latter that stood out most. Plate discipline was the youngster’s carrying tool, as evidenced by a .438 OBP as a collegian and a .408 OBP across three levels in the minors. Despite a higher-than-ideal strikeout rate and questions about his defensive future — he’d recently transitioned to left field from the hot corner — Malloy seemed well positioned to join a young Tigers lineup in the coming seasons.

He arrived, at least in part, this summer. After doing his thing in Toledo — his stat line with the Triple-A Mud Hens this season included a .403 OBP and a 129 wRC+ — Malloy made his MLB debut in early June, and with the exception of brief demotion in late August remained on the roster throughout. His numbers were admittedly not great. In 230 plate appearances against big-league pitching he slashed just .203/.291/.366 with eight home runs. Moreover, a pedestrian 10% walk rate belied the discerning-eye approach that helped him get there.

How different is the present day Justin-Henry Malloy from the up-and-coming prospect I’d talked to two years ago? I asked him that question when the Tigers played in Chicago on the final weekend of the regular season. Read the rest of this entry »

NEW YORK — Alex Verdugo spent the last five months of the 2024 season dragging down the Yankees’ offense, so much so that in the season’s closing weeks, the team gave an abbreviated look to 21-year-old top prospect Jasson Domínguez. Not until late Friday night did word leak that manager Aaron Boone would stick with Verdugo to start the Division Series opener against the Royals, but the 28-year-old left fielder made the decision look brilliant. In a seesaw battle that included runs in every inning from the second through the seventh — creating five lead changes, a postseason first — Verdugo sparked a pair of two-run rallies with a third-inning single and sixth-inning walk, made a sparkling defensive play with a sliding catch to end the fourth, and drove in the decisive run in the seventh in the Yankees’ 6-5 win.

“He didn’t have his best season this year, but he’s gonna show you guys that this is his time,” said Jazz Chisholm Jr. “This is what he’s made for.”

During the regular season, Verdugo hit just .233/.291/.356 for an 83 wRC+, the ninth-lowest mark of any qualifier, and from May 1 on, he hit an even more dismal .225/.275/.336 for a 72 wRC+, the fourth-lowest of any qualifier. Nonetheless, Boone stuck with him through thick and thin, and the Yankees initially bypassed an opportunity to recall Domínguez — whose season included rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and then an oblique strain — when rosters expanded on September 1. They eventually called up Domínguez on September 9, and he started 15 of the team’s final 19 games, including eight out of the last 10 in left field while Verdugo sat.

But unlike last year, when he homered four times in eight games before tearing his right UCL, Domínguez scuffled at the plate (.179/.313/.304, 84 wRC+), leaving the door open for Verdugo. He was ready when Boone called his number, a decision that owed plenty to his familiarity with Yankee Stadium’s spacious left field and the way Domínguez, regularly a center fielder, struggled when shifted over to the less familiar position. “Obviously Alex has been tremendous for us out there defensively, and even though it’s been up and down for him in the second half, especially offensively, I still feel like there’s a really good hitter in there that can provide something for us at the bottom,” said Boone before Game 1. Read the rest of this entry »

PHILADELPHIA — I suppose coming back from a 1-0 deficit is child’s play to a team that, last time out, overturned a 2-0 ninth-inning deficit against one of the best closers in the league. A team that clinched its playoff berth with a six-run eighth inning in Atlanta, coughed that lead up, then took it back for good an inning later. A team that, on August 28, was just five games over .500, with a 13.1% chance of making the playoffs.

And this was supposed to be a rebuilding year anyway. After beating the Phillies in Game 1 of the National League Division Series, 6-2, and weathering the best starting pitcher they’re going to see at least in this series, maybe for the rest of the postseason, the Mets now have a chance to go up 2-0 in enemy territory on Sunday. With two advancement-clinching wins already in the bag, and as many iconic victories over the team’s two most hated division rivals, this is the best week the Mets have had in… well, it’s been a while. Read the rest of this entry »

They played nine innings in Cleveland on Saturday afternoon. They really did, a whole baseball game’s worth of innings, but Game 1 of the American League Divisional Series between the Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland Guardians was decided long before all that. The game wasn’t just over after the first inning; it was over before the Tigers had so much as pitched a third of a frame. It’s one of baseball’s quirks that we measure pitching performance in innings pitched, which is to say by the number of outs recorded. There are plenty of stats that make more sense if we use total batters faced as the denominator, and that’s before you think about the occasional outing in which the pitcher doesn’t record an out. Dividing by zero doesn’t really work, and on Saturday, no one was more acutely aware of that bleak mathematical reality than Tyler Holton, Detroit’s starter (or opener, or — maybe more accurately — sacrificial lamb), who had the first no-out outing of his short career.

Last week, A.J. Hinch described his pitching strategy as “Tarik Skubal tomorrow and pitching chaos the rest of the way.” With Skubal lined up to start Game 2, Saturday was a day for chaos. Holton ran a 2.19 ERA over 93 1/3 innings this season, putting up 1.4 WAR. He gave up just five total runs in the second half, and not all of them were earned. But his name didn’t even appear in Jake Mailhot’s series preview. I point that out not to malign Jake, but to emphasize the sheer volume of excellent Tigers relievers that both we and the Guardians need to keep track of in this series. There were so many that Detroit’s Game 1 starter (or opener, or losing pitcher) didn’t even rate a sentence.

One of the more depressing things about chaos theory is that it’s almost entirely devoted to explaining that what looks like chaos is actually just complexity. So much of the randomness, disorder, and inexplicability that we humans find so compelling can actually be explained in mathematical terms that make us want to repeatedly bang our foreheads against the nearest school desk. It’s all about understanding the initial conditions so that you can see how each action affected the system as a whole.

The initial conditions in Cleveland were lovely. It was bright and sunny, 68 degrees at game time. In Tanner Bibee, the Guardians had their ace on the mound, well rested and coming off a September in which he ran a 2.64 ERA. The last time he didn’t leave a game with more strikeouts than innings pitched was August 11. The Tigers, with Skubal lined up to pitch in Game 2 and 5, were starting out with house money. Hinch could organize his chaos just how he liked, and for the second game in a row, he led off with Holton.

Bibee had some ugly misses in the top of the first, letting his fastball sail way above the zone and to his arm side. It could have been nerves, but either way, he was able to locate his slider in the zone. Still, after he struck out Parker Meadows swinging on a changeup, Kerry Carpenter stayed back on a curveball and drove it up the middle for a line drive single, and for a moment it looked like Bibee’s wildness might end up costing Cleveland. Matt Vierling hit a soft chopper to second base for a fielder’s choice, moving Meadows to second, then Bibee hit Riley Greene in the front foot with a curveball, prompting an early mound visit from pitching coach Carl Willis and a brief infield huddle. Whatever Willis said worked just fine. Colt Keith lined out to left field to end the top of the first. It was the last time the Guardians would have anything to worry about.

In the bottom of the inning, Holton started Steven Kwan with sinker off the plate outside. That would be the high point of the day for the Tigers; a 1-0 count on Steven Kwan was as good as it got, the initial condition from which all ensuing calamities cascaded. Kwan ripped Holton’s second pitch, a sinker off the plate inside, off the top of the right field wall for a double, missing a homer by a foot or so. David Fry took Holton to a full count, then fouled off a cutter and a changeup before earning a walk.

With no outs and runners on first and second, superstar José Ramírez came to the plate. Things couldn’t have looked better for Cleveland, but their luck would only improve. Ramírez chopped the ball down the third base line, and the topspin seemed to confuse Zach McKinstry. What looked like a high but routine bounce completely flummoxed him. He just kind of whiffed on it, so handcuffed that he never made a real attempt to catch the ball or even get in front of it. Kwan came around to score on the error, and the Guardians had runners on second and third with no outs.

The Tigers brought their infield in, and their luck didn’t change. The left-handed Josh Naylor rolled over a sweeper, slipping a soft grounder neatly between the first and second basemen to score Fry. That was the end of Holton’s day. He threw 20 pitches and surrendered one hard-hit ball. He allowed three hits, one walk, and one batter to reach on an error. He did not retire a batter.

For the first time all year, Reese Olson entered the game as a reliever instead of a starter. Olson didn’t have Holton’s season, but he still managed a 3.53 ERA and 3.17 FIP over 22 starts, racking up 2.4 WAR in the process. The first postseason pitch of his career was a slider. It was also the first postseason pitch of Lane Thomas’s career. It brings me no joy to report that for the next few days, you will necessarily be hearing the phrase “Lane Train” more often than you would like to hear it, which – and I’m giving you the benefit of the doubt here – is exactly zero times. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Thomas was sitting slider. He demolished the pitch, launching it 394 feet into left field to make it 5-0.

Remember, the Tigers had yet to record an out at this point. Four of those five runs belonged to Holton, making his ERA for the game four divided by zero times nine.

Olson eventually made his way out of the inning, and then a bunch of people started singing about colon cancer screenings. One of their neighbors was wielding hedge trimmers. He was finishing off a topiary of an anthropomorphic box in which you can mail a stool sample to the company that made the people start singing about their colons. The real CGI box just kind of stood there next to its horticultural doppelgänger, seemingly not at all surprised to be looking into its own eyes, only in the form of a bush. Somehow, it felt of a piece with the baseball that preceded it.

After that, Olson settled down beautifully. He pitched five innings, allowing just two more hits and a walk. Ty Madden would relieve him in the sixth, surrendering two more runs to make it 7-0 Guardians. That’s how the game would end. Despite a few more ugly misses in the early innings, Bibee would cruise through 4 1/3, surrendering just four hits and a walk while striking out six Tigers.

All season, Cleveland’s bullpen has been the opposite of chaos. Stephen Vogt’s crew has been running like clockwork, and that continued in Game 1. Cade Smith followed Bibee, striking out all four batters he faced. Tim Herrin struck out two more in the seventh, Hunter Gaddis worked a clean eighth, and Emmanuel Clase needed just eight pitches to shut the door in the ninth, giving the Guardians the victory and a 1-0 lead in the series.

You could argue that the Tigers needed this game much less than the Guardians. They’ve got Skubal going in Game 2, and he’s lined up for Game 5. They came into the game wanting to win, sure, but also thinking that they’d be happy to steal just one of out of their three potential chaos contests. However, after seeing how that went, the Tigers must be discouraged. Save for one pitch, they wasted a brilliant bulk-relief appearance from Olson, and their offense mustered just four hits while striking out 13 times. If chaos really is just unpredictability that can be unraveled if you math hard enough based on how things start, Detroit might need a new plan.

Can anyone stop the Mets? That’s not a question I expected to be asking this year, unless it was “Can anyone stop the Mets from signing marquee free agents?” or “Can anyone stop the Mets from imploding in the most Mets-y way imaginable?” But as the National League Division Series starts, the Mets are on one of those team-of-destiny runs that feels like a self-fulfilling prophecy. There’s no deficit they can’t overcome, no lead they can’t squander and then retake in the next inning. They’re upping the degree of difficulty significantly starting Saturday, though: The Phillies have been one of the best teams in baseball all year, and they’re rested and ready for what promises to be an exciting series.

A tale of the tape – Francisco Lindor is good at x, Bryce Harper is good at y, Zack Wheeler and Kodai Senga will square off in Game 1, so on and so forth – doesn’t feel like the right way to describe this series. Instead, I’m going to focus on how each team tries to win, and how these plans are most likely to go awry.

The Mets have thrived offensively this year with a simple blueprint: power at the top of the lineup and Jose Iglesias somehow doing everything else. Lindor is so good that he’s almost an offense unto himself: He led the Mets in runs (107), RBI (91), steals (29), on-base percentage (.344), slugging percentage (.500), and pretty much everything else you can imagine, except for home runs (33). In that category, he finished one off the team lead behind Pete Alonso. Alonso had a down year in 2024, but he’s very good at the skill the Mets most need from him: clobbering homers to drive in Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, and sometimes Iglesias. Mark Vientos functions as a second Alonso; he’s there to hit homers or advance runners with situational hitting, but he’s fresh out of situational hitting.
Read the rest of this entry »

The NL West race may have been settled in favor of the Dodgers this year, but everybody goes back to the starting gate in the playoffs. The only difference is the possible extra home game the Dodgers get in each individual series, though home field advantage has been far from a valuable perk for teams except for sales of tickets, hot dogs, and $59 foam fingers. With Los Angeles getting a few extra days to try and heal up a little more, the Padres got here the hard way, having to win the best-of-three Wild Card Series against the Atlanta Braves, a team that still managed to squeeze out 89 wins without Spencer Strider and mostly missing Ronald Acuña Jr.

While some of baseball’s best rivalries are the classic ones that have endured for the last century, such as Yankees-Red Sox and Dodgers-Giants, this one between the Dodgers and Padres is a good example of how new rivalries can pop up and be a lot of fun, too. Despite the fact that the two teams have played in the same division for more than five decades, only in recent years has the so-called I-5 Rivalry really heated up. San Diego has infrequently sustained runs of relevance – this is only the second version of the Friars to string together three winning seasons in a row – leaving Dodgers fans with few nightmares featuring a brown-and-mustard palette. But these Padres have been aggressive, and unlike in the past when short-term bursts of ambition were tempered quickly with brutal fire sales, they’ve consistently tried to make the Dodgers uncomfortable at the top of the NL West. Even as the Padres traded Juan Soto over the winter, they acquired their Wild Card Series Game 1 starter Michael King in that deal and then traded for Dylan Cease, who’ll start Game 1 of the Division Series, just before Opening Day. Yet, ultimate success has proven elusive for San Diego, with two disappointing playoff misses in 2021 and 2023 and still no returns to the World Series since 1998’s debacle.

The Dodgers enter the Division Series with something to prove as well. While they do have a World Series trophy from the COVID-shortened 2020 season, with five 100-win seasons in the last seven normal years, they crave to have more hardware to show for their success. Sure, we’re used to the idea that when you have large playoff formats, winning the World Series takes a lot of luck, but neither fans nor history care much about that. Winning the World Series this year would wipe out most, if not all, of that disappointment; taking care of business in this series would get the Dodgers one step closer to that while also giving them a little revenge against the Padres for knocking them out in the 2022 NLDS, after Los Angeles won a franchise-best 111 games.

So, how do the teams stack up? Let’s start with the ZiPS projections. As I type this, Joe Musgrove has been officially ruled out for the NLDS due to his elbow injury, which has now been confirmed to require Tommy John surgery. That means no Musgrove this postseason – or next season – but for now, we’ll just deal with the impact of the news on this series.

For contrast, here are the projections for if Musgrove had been able to pitch in this five-game set.

Replacing Musgrove with Martín Pérez, likely the next man up, basically flips the win probabilities for Game 4. Where every game previously favored the home team in the projections, now the Dodgers are expected to win on the road against Pérez.

Even though the Dodgers are favored to win with Musgrove out, it would still be wrong to call them overwhelming favorites. This is a close series overall, but also a swingy one, with four of the five games projecting to be at least a 55-45 split, meaning that for the most part, these games aren’t projected to be coin flips despite the tightness of the series as a whole. “Breaking serve” here by winning on the road has quite a lot of value. If the Padres can get to Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Jack Flaherty and win one of the first two games, they would expose one of the Dodgers’ current weaknesses: a thin rotation due to injuries. Walker Buehler had only three quality starts out of his 16 outings since returning from Tommy John surgery in May; his performance was shaky enough that in mid-June the Dodgers optioned him to the minors, where he spent two months trying to get right, before they brought him back up to start on August 20. And despite a superficially appealing ERA, Landon Knack would be about the 12th choice for Los Angeles if everyone were healthy. If the Dodgers are able to get out to a 2-0 lead without any bullpen-exhaustion events, like an 18-inning game, they might be in a position of strength to run a bullpen game and axe one of their uncertain starters from the NLDS rotation.

Where the Dodgers have the advantage is their front-line offensive talent, which gives them what appears to be the superior offense overall, an edge large enough that it isn’t erased if you view players such as Jurickson Profar and Donovan Solano with less skepticism than ZiPS does.

Dylan Cease is a terrific pitcher, but ZiPS thinks the Dodgers’ Big Four of Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and the good platoon side of Max Muncy has a fighting chance of getting to him. It’s more of an uphill climb against Yamamoto; ZiPS has Luis Arraez as the only San Diego batter projected to have a .300 OBP against Yamamoto, and it gives none of the Padres a .450 SLG projection against him. Now, contrast that with the projections at home against Knack and Buehler.

One of San Diego’s other advantages, at least in the eyes of the computer, is its bullpen. While ZiPS has both teams performing similarly overall, it much prefers the depth of the Padres’ unit. To test their bullpens, in each simulation, ZiPS was instructed to knock out both starters after two innings in one game and have another game last 15 innings; in these scenarios, the odds of the Padres winning the series go from 42% to 47% – nearly a coin flip. In a short series, things like roster construction can make a real difference. Look at the way the Nationals were configured in 2019, with four good starters, two relievers they trusted, and a dumpster fire behind them. That kind of distilled performance meant that even when Washington won 13 fewer regular-season games than Los Angeles that year, ZiPS projected the teams as nearly equal when they met in the 2019 NLDS.

Here’s what I get from these reams of data: The Dodgers should stay the course with what’s worked for them all year, trust their elite hitters, and avoid the temptation to get too cute with their managing tactics, but the Padres ought to be aggressive. If they see an opening to get to Yamamoto or Flaherty, treat that game like it’s Game 7 of the World Series. San Diego can’t afford to save any wacky tricks for later. If the Padres can push the Dodgers back on their heels quickly and early, the latter may run out of time to right themselves.

One thing you’ll hear a lot (in all four series), especially early on, is the claim that the layoff is a big disadvantage for teams. Don’t believe it. If the Padres upset the Dodgers here in the five-game series, it won’t be because Los Angeles was too rested. Instead, it’ll be because the Padres played better.

It would be easy to look at what happened across the two American League Wild Card Series as the best possible outcome for the Yankees. The Astros, the team that had made it to the ALCS in each of the last seven seasons and eliminated New York three times to advance to the World Series in that span, saw their season end after losing to the Tigers; meanwhile, the Orioles, the Yankees’ up-and-coming division rivals who gave them fits all season, were bounced in Baltimore by the Royals.

That’s right, the two biggest AL threats to the Yankees this postseason were knocked out in the first round. To paraphrase manager Aaron Boone, it’s all right there in front of them. Indeed, their path to their first World Series appearance in 15 years is a bit clearer, in the sense that neither their past nemesis nor their latest challenger is standing in their way.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves here. The Astros look more like the decaying New Rome of Megalopolis than the burgeoning empire that ransacked the AL for the better part of a decade, and Baltimore’s nearly completed rebuild still hasn’t gotten off the ground in October. Besides, the Royals are pretty good in their own right. They have a trio of excellent starting pitchers atop their rotation and a strong group of high-leverage relievers. They run the bases well and are either the best or one of the best defensive teams in the majors. And then there’s shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., a true five-tool player who posted 10.4 WAR this year and has carried Kansas City further than almost anyone could’ve expected when the season began.

To keep going, they will have to overcome the Yankees, who had the best record in the AL and won five of their seven games against the Royals this season. Kansas City’s first chance to do so comes Saturday night, when veteran right-hander Michael Wacha takes on reigning Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole in Game 1 of the ALDS at Yankee Stadium.

It certainly won’t be easy. The Yankees enter this weekend with the best odds of any AL team to win the World Series. Perhaps that makes sense, considering New York won’t have to go through Houston this time, but there’s a more specific explanation for why the Yankees are the team to beat this postseason: This is the best team they’ve had in years.

Wait, these Yankees, who won 94 games and were the second-worst team in baseball for six weeks, are better than the 100-win teams of 2018 and ’19? And the 2022 club that won 99 games? Even the upstart Baby Bombers squad in 2017, the one that many fans still claim would’ve won it all if not for the Astros’ sign-stealing scheme? Really? Sure!

Why? The main and most obvious reason is that the Yankees are no longer just the Aaron Judge show. They have two MVP-caliber talents batting back-to-back in their lineup, and somehow, describing Judge and Juan Soto as “MVP-caliber talents” doesn’t quite encapsulate their excellence or their importance to the Yankees. Think of it this way: The Yankees have both the best hitter in baseball since Barry Bonds and the second coming of Ted Williams. Or put another way, Judge and Soto are the second pair of teammates ever to finish with at least 8 WAR and a 175 or better wRC+. The first pair? Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig, who did it a ridiculous four times (1927-28, 1930-31).

The rest of New York’s lineup is, at best, inconsistent, but that was the case in prior seasons, too, when Judge was the only player around. In 2022, for example, excluding Judge, the Yankees were roughly league average at the plate (102 wRC+); this season, the Yankees have a 104 wRC+ without Judge. That isn’t much better, but consider where they would be without both Judge and Soto; excluding them, New York hitters have combined for a 92 wRC+. The point here is that the Yankees now have two elite players to lean on instead of just one, and if either Judge or Soto goes cold, the team still has one of the top three hitters in baseball to pick up the slack.

Also, it’s worth noting that Boone acknowledged earlier this week that Judge was pretty banged up during the 2022 postseason, which probably contributed to his struggles (35 wRC+ in nine games); before that year, Judge had a 126 wRC+ across 160 postseason plate appearances. Boone also said both Judge and Soto enter this postseason about as healthy as any player can be after playing a six-month season.

Beyond Judge and Soto, the Yankees also have Giancarlo Stanton, who seemingly levels up when the calendar turns to October. Since joining the Yankees, Stanton is slashing .297/.373/.734 with nine home runs, a .443 wOBA, and a 186 wRC+ over his 75 postseason plate appearances. Additionally, there’s second baseman Gleyber Torres, who had a disappointing contract year this season; he finished with a .257/.330/.378 line, 15 home runs, a 104 wRC+, and 1.7 WAR — all down from his resurgent 2023 campaign. That said, those numbers are pretty remarkable considering how poorly Torres played over the first few months of the season. Entering the All-Star break, he had an 88 wRC+ and 0.3 WAR across 93 games and 380 plate appearances; over his 61 games (285 PA) since then, he has a 124 wRC+ and 1.4 WAR.

The arrival of Jazz Chisholm Jr., for whom the Yankees traded in late July, coincided with their turnaround after their six-week slide. Playing all but 14 of his innings with the Yankees at third base, a position he’d never played professionally before, Chisholm helped shake the team out of its midsummer snooze. With the Yankees, he batted .273/.325/.500 with 11 home runs, 18 steals, and a 132 wRC+ over 191 plate appearances. Thanks to that offense and stellar defense at the hot corner (6 OAA), Chisholm had 2.3 WAR during his 46 games with the Yankees.

This lineup still has plenty of questions, though. Rookie catcher and cleanup hitter Austin Wells had a dreadful September, when he hit for a 22 wRC+ across 83 plate appearances. That probably has something to do with fatigue; through the end of August, Wells slashed .259/.348/.447 with a 126 wRC+. He hasn’t played since the Yankees locked up the no. 1 seed last Saturday, so we’ll see if he rebounds following a week of rest.

The Yankees also have a significant hole in left field, where Alex Verdugo played most of the season and was one of the 10 worst hitters in the majors (83 wRC+). More recently, Jasson Domínguez has started in left, but he’s looked shaky in the field and hasn’t hit much either, though his 84 wRC+ has come in a much smaller sample. Boone has not yet committed to playing one over the other.

Despite the struggles of some players, the Yankees were one of the best hitting teams in baseball overall, ranking third in runs (815), second in wRC+ (117), and first in home runs (237). They’ll face a Royals pitching staff that was one of the best in the majors. Kansas City ranked seventh in ERA (3.76), fourth in FIP (3.76), and third in WAR (20.2). The Royals rotation was especially excellent this season, with a 3.55 ERA and 16.7 WAR, both of which ranked second among all big league rotations.

Their top three starters deserve much of the credit for their success. Cole Ragans, who threw six scoreless innings in Game 1 of the Wild Card round and would’ve kept going if he hadn’t started cramping, broke out this season with a 3.14 ERA, a 2.99 FIP, and 4.9 WAR over 186 1/3 innings — more than 50 innings above his previous career high at any professional level. That workload could become an issue, though. As Ben Clemens noted in his AL Wild Card Series preview, “He’s been walking more opponents and striking out fewer of them in August and September; only a mid-.200s BABIP has kept his ERA from reflecting it.” Ragans is slated to start Game 2 on Monday.

Seth Lugo wasn’t at his best against the Orioles on Tuesday even though he allowed just one run on five hits and struck out six. He labored most of the night and looked gassed when he was removed with one out in the fifth. At 34, Lugo just completed the best season of his career, one that should earn him a top-five finish in the Cy Young voting. He had a 3.00 ERA, a 3.25 FIP, and 4.7 WAR across 33 starts and a whopping 206 2/3 innings, the second most in the majors. One of those starts came last month in the Bronx, when Lugo silenced the Yankees across seven scoreless innings; he struck out 10, walked none, and gave up just three hits. After that start, Jay Jaffe went into depth on Lugo, and I’d encourage you to check out that piece if you haven’t already. Lugo will start Game 3 on Wednesday in Kansas City.

That leaves Wacha, KC’s Game 1 starter, who is having his best season (3.35 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 3.3 WAR, 166 2/3 IP) since at least 2017. Like Lugo, Wacha revived his career last year in the Padres’ rotation and turned that into a multi-year deal with the Royals. In his Wild Card preview, Ben also compared the two Royals veterans to describe Wacha, whom he said “is like Lugo with the volume turned down 5%. He throws a ton of pitches, but his only plus offering is the changeup that made him famous back in his St. Louis days.” Another thing about Wacha? He’s held Judge to just one single and three walks with 11 strikeouts in the 21 times he’s faced the Yankees slugger during his career, for whatever that small sample is worth.

Like the Royals, the Yankees have a deep rotation. Cole missed the team’s first 75 games with an elbow injury, and his first seven starts were the work of a rusty pitcher who might have returned to the mound too quickly. Since the beginning of August, though, Cole has a 2.25 ERA and a 2.62 FIP across 10 starts (60 innings), and for the most part, he’s been even better than those numbers suggest during that stretch. Seven of the 15 earned runs he’s allowed in that span came in his bizarre September 14 start against the Red Sox, when he intentionally walked Rafael Devers with the bases empty. What’s more, only two of the 11 home runs hit off him this year have come within the past two months (in fact, those two homers came in the same start, on August 27 against the Nationals).

Cole is set to start Game 1 on Saturday, followed by Carlos Rodón in Game 2 on Monday. Boone has not yet announced who will get the ball in Wednesday’s Game 3 in Kansas City, but it will most likely be either Clarke Schmidt or Luis Gil, with the other one, along with Marcus Stroman, relegated to the bullpen.

During the second half of the season, Rodón looked more like the pitcher the Yankees thought they were getting when they signed him to a six-year, $162 million deal before the 2023 season. Over his 12 starts since the All-Star break, he is 7-2 with a 2.91 ERA, 3.93 FIP, and 3.67 xFIP. Home runs were his biggest problem this season; his 1.59 HR/9 was the fourth-highest rate among major league starters.

For his part, Schmidt (2.85 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 85 1/3 IP) has been the best Yankees starter on a rate basis this season, but he missed more than three months with a lat strain and has not been as strong since returning from the injured list. After posting a 2.52 ERA and a 3.53 FIP during his first 11 starts (60 2/3 IP), he had a 3.65 ERA and a 3.69 FIP in 24 2/3 innings across his five September starts.

Gil, a Rookie of the Year candidate, dominated during his first 14 starts of the season (2.03 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 80 IP) and anchored the Yankees rotation while Cole was on the shelf. He then looked completely lost for three starts — allowing 16 runs in just 9 2/3 innings — before rounding into form again after making an adjustment to his pitch mix. Over the first half of the season, Gil was mainly a fastball/changeup guy who also had a slider; that worked for the most part. But in early July, after his third straight clunker, he started leaning on his slider more, with his changeup becoming his third pitch.

With the way the ALDS schedule works out — an off day Sunday and then travel days on Tuesday and, if necessary, Friday — both teams will need only three starters to get through the best-of-five series.

Witt is by far the most threatening hitter the Yankees’ staff will face in a lineup that is otherwise fairly light on impact batters. Salvador Perez, who is somehow only 34 years old, is coming off a solid season in which he hit 27 home runs and had a 115 wRC+ while splitting his time between catcher and first base. Expect him to be behind the plate for the entire ALDS as long as first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino remains healthy enough to be in the lineup. Pasquantino, who hit 19 homers and had a 108 wRC+ this season, recently returned from a broken right thumb.

The Yankees bullpen is their biggest question heading into this series. Luke Weaver made a point to say earlier this week that he does not consider himself to be the team’s closer, even though Boone has turned to him in save situations instead of Clay Holmes, who was displaced as the closer last month. No matter what you call Weaver’s role, there’s no denying that he’s been the most impactful Yankees reliever this year. Over 62 appearances spanning 84 innings, he has a 2.89 ERA, a 3.33 FIP, and 1.0 WAR.

Holmes has blown a league-high 13 saves this season, but overall, he’s been solid: 3.14 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 63 IP. Some of his woes can be attributed to bad luck. As David Laurila detailed today, Holmes is still a groundball pitcher, but far more of the fly balls he’s allowed this season have been hit for home runs (11.8%, up from last year’s 7.1%). Opponents also have a .322 BABIP against him; that’s the highest it’s been in a full season. The Yankees’ bullpen also includes righties Tommy Kahnle (2.11 ERA, 4.01 FIP) and Ian Hamilton (3.82 ERA, 3.03 FIP), and lefty Tim Hill, who has a 2.05 ERA and 3.62 FIP in 44 innings since coming over from the White Sox in June.

Closer Lucas Erceg has anchored the Kansas City bullpen since the Royals traded for him at the end of July, and he’s been better than they could’ve expected when they acquired him. Michael Rosen just wrote about what makes Erceg special, and I’ll refer you to his piece rather than going into depth here. Lefty Kris Bubic, their second-best reliever, is also excellent; he struck out 32.2% of the batters he faced this season while posting a 2.67 ERA and 1.95 FIP over 30 1/3 innings. The Royals also feature relievers John Schreiber, a righty, and lefty Angel Zerpa, who replaced Lugo on Wednesday with one out in the fifth to escape a bases-loaded jam. For the first out he recorded, Zerpa threw a sinker that was so nasty that Colton Cowser swung at it even though it hit him.

It’s going to be a fun series. The Yankees are the better team, but the Royals, to quote the face of their franchise, “didn’t come this far just to come this far.” He added, “We’re going to keep getting after it, keep trying to create our own legacy.” What exactly that legacy turns out to be remains to be seen.

The Dodgers built up a formidable seven-game NL West lead over the first half of the season. While they had to withstand a late charge by the Padres — whom they’ll face in a Division Series that starts on Saturday, a rematch of the 2022 pairing that ended up sending a 111-win Dodgers squad home — they were able to do so despite their starting pitching fraying at the seams. Even before Mookie Betts and Max Muncy returned from lengthy absences due to injuries, the emergence of Gavin Lux as an offensive force played a key role in the team’s second-half offensive uptick.

Lux’s overall numbers for 2024 — .251/.320/.383 with 10 home runs — don’t scan as particularly special. Dragged down by a September slump that he began to emerge from during the season’s final week, he finished with a modest 100 wRC+. Based on his overall batted ball data, including a .262 xBA and a .393 xSLG, it’s tough to make the case that he should have done much better. The key point is that he had to hit well enough to get his head back above water after a slow start that looked as though it might cost him his spot in the lineup.

The Dodgers have shown great patience with the 26-year-old Lux, both in the past and this season. A 2016 first-round pick out of a Kenosha, Wisconsin high school, he placed second on our Top 100 Prospects list as a 70-FV prospect four years later (behind only Wander Franco). While he had already debuted in the majors the previous September, he didn’t get a foothold until 2021, and needed a strong September to prevent that season from being a disappointment, though interruptions due to wrist and hamstring injuries probably played a part in his woes. Read the rest of this entry »

After dispatching the Houston Astros in a two-game Wild Card sweep, the Detroit Tigers’ magical season — their playoff odds sat at just 0.2% on August 11 — continues with a matchup against the Cleveland Guardians in the ALDS. For its part, Cleveland emerged as the winner of the surprisingly tough AL Central, the team’s second division title in the last three years. The Guardians flirted with the best record in the American League for most of the season, but a slow July and August meant that they finished a game and half behind the Yankees for the top seed; they ultimately outperformed their BaseRuns record by 11 games, by far the widest differential in baseball this year, on the back of clutch hitting and a shutdown bullpen.

These two division rivals are well acquainted with each other — Cleveland eked out the regular season series 7-6 — but this will be the first time these storied franchises have met in the postseason. Both teams are extremely young and neither had especially lofty expectations entering the season, but here they are, battling for a spot in the ALCS.

As was true in the Wild Card round, one of the primary questions for the Tigers is how they will deploy their pitching. They got a brilliant start from Tarik Skubal in Game 1 in Houston, then bullpenned their way through Game 2 with the help of seven different pitchers. Now the challenge is figuring out how to take the unorthodox approach that got them through the end of the regular season and past the Astros, and adapt it for the Division Series. Fortunately, the postseason schedule means that Skubal should get two opportunities to pitch this series if it goes all the way to five games, but what they do for the other three games is anyone’s guess.

Both Reese Olson and Casey Mize were on the Wild Card roster, and Detroit will probably bring Keider Montero back for the Division Series. Still, Olson hasn’t pitched past the fourth inning in any of his three regular season starts since returning from a shoulder injury a few weeks ago. Mize, meanwhile, was an effective starter for the Tigers for most of the first half of the season, but missed two months with a hamstring injury and was used as a piggyback option in two of Olson’s starts in late September. The ZiPS game-by-game odds assume that Olson will “start” Game 1, with Montero going in Game 3 and a bullpen game for Game 4:

As you can see, if the Tigers are able to force a Game 5, the series is essentially a coin flip, with the odds slightly favoring Detroit thanks to Skubal. The trick will be to win Skubal’s starts and at least one of Games 1, 3, or 4. Of course, no matter who is listed as the official starter in the non-Skubal games, the Tigers will almost certainly use every available reliever to work through those games. In the Wild Card series, they used eight pitchers out of their bullpen between the two games, with Jason Foley and Jackson Jobe the only ones to allow any runs. Will Vest and Beau Brieske were the standouts, pitching in both games and each earning a save.

The Guardians won’t have to scramble quite as hard to find starters, but the rotation certainly isn’t the main strength of Cleveland’s roster. After Shane Bieber was sidelined by Tommy John surgery in April, Tanner Bibee became the de facto ace of the staff, turning in a solid effort (3.47 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 3.3 WAR) in his second big league season. He improved his strikeout rate by more than two percentage points, lowered his walk rate by 1.5 points, and was a reliable workhorse the entire season. His slider and changeup are both legitimate bat-missing weapons, and his fastball is just good enough to support those secondary pitches.

After Bibee in Game 1, things become a little less clear. Matthew Boyd will certainly make at least one start during the series, and potentially two if Cleveland opts to use him in Game 2 (which would line him up to start a potential Game 5). Boyd returned from Tommy John surgery in August and made eight very impressive starts down the stretch. His fastball velocity is sitting right around where it was at his peak with the Tigers, and his secondary offerings are generating plenty of swings and misses.

For Game 3, the Guardians have a number of options to turn to. The game-by-game odds above assume Alex Cobb will be activated off the IL for this series and make the start, but he’s only made three starts all year and just one in September after dealing with blisters on his throwing hand. Gavin Williams has electric stuff to go along with his prospect pedigree, but he’s struggled with inconsistency, particularly with runners on base, leading to a 4.86 ERA that’s more than a run higher than his 3.67 FIP. There’s also the veteran Ben Lively, whose 3.81 ERA and 4.66 FIP across 29 starts gave Cleveland’s rotation some stability after Bieber’s injury, but he’s not exactly the kind of starter you’d want pitching in a big postseason game. However they lineup their rotation, it’ll be a lot more predictable than the chaos Detroit is trying to harness.

Of course, the Guardians’ true strength lies in their bullpen. Led by Emmanuel Clase, who just had one of the best reliever seasons ever, Cleveland also has a deep stable of setup men who form a bridge from the middle innings to the ninth:

Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, and Tim Herrin are as good a setup trio as there is in baseball, and Cleveland’s relief corps as a whole had the sixth-best league- and park-adjusted ERA among the 750 team seasons since 2000. The same expanded schedule that benefits the Tigers’ heavy bullpen usage will also allow manager Stephen Vogt to deploy his ‘pen aggressively should the Guardians take an early lead.

The x-factor on the Guards’ pitching staff is Joey Cantillo, their 13th-ranked prospect. He made his major league debut in late July and has shown some real promise with his changeup and slider, especially across four September starts that saw him pitch to an impressive 2.25 ERA and 1.17 FIP with 29 strikeouts in 20 innings. It’s possible they’ll use him as their Game 3 starter, but it’s more likely that they’ll deploy him as another multi-inning weapon out of the bullpen.

Not only do the Guardians have the more impressive bullpen, they also employ the series’ biggest superstar in José Ramírez. He was a double and a home run away from posting a 40 double, 40 home run, 40 stolen base season, and will certainly receive down-ballot MVP consideration behind Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. Despite his fantastic track record in the regular season since his breakout 2016, Ramírez has had a rough go of things in the postseason. In 134 plate appearances across 32 playoff games, he’s slashed just .242/.291/.347 (a 70 wRC+) with a pair of home runs. If Cleveland wants to make a deep run in the playoffs, Ramírez will need to be firing on all cylinders.

Steven Kwan and Josh Naylor are the other key members of the Guardians lineup, with the former posting an excellent 131 wRC+ from the leadoff spot while the latter blasted 31 home runs and collected 108 RBIs from the cleanup spot. Both Kwan and Naylor hit left-handed, which puts them at a disadvantage against Skubal. That’s one reason why Cleveland acquired Lane Thomas from the Nationals at the trade deadline — to balance out the lineup with a strong right-handed batter. Thomas got off to a slow start with his new team in August, but produced a 137 wRC+ during the final month of the season.

Cleveland will also hope to see more consistent production out of Jhonkensy Noel. He slumped pretty badly in September, but he was a key member of the lineup during his hot August. His huge raw power gives Cleveland something it has largely lacked the last few years, and one swing from “Big Christmas” could change an entire game.

Because the Tigers will be looking to exploit as many matchups as they can with their relievers, Cleveland’s bench will bear a lot of weight this series:

David Fry, Cleveland’s surprise All-Star, should get starts against the left-handed Skubal, with Noel in the outfield. Beyond those two straight platoons, Vogt will need to pick and choose the right moments to deploy his pinch-hitters to counter A.J. Hinch’s bullpen machinations. The switch-hitting Angel Martínez, in particular, could be the most valuable piece off Cleveland’s bench.

In my preview of the Tigers-Astros Wild Card series, I wrote that Detroit’s offense would need to rely on four key contributors: Kerry Carpenter, Parker Meadows, Riley Greene, and Spencer Torkelson. That quartet collected just four combined hits against Houston, though Meadows’ home run in Game 2 broke the scoreless tie and Carpenter’s single in the eighth started the game-winning rally. Behind those four, the rest of the Tigers lineup collected 13 hits against the Astros, with Torkelson and Colt Keith the only batters to go hitless in the series. Timely hitting was the differentiator; all three runs in Game 1, as well as Andy Ibáñez’s go-ahead, three-run double in Game 2, came with two outs in their respective innings. The Tigers also left a combined 19 runners on base during the series, squandering a number of opportunities to tack a few more crooked numbers on the scoreboard.

The blueprint for both the Tigers and Guardians should look pretty similar: scratch across a few runs early in the game and hand things off to a shut-down bullpen to close things out. With both teams working from the same plan, the series will likely come down to which club can find a timely hit to put themselves ahead. The moves both managers make will have a huge influence on the course of the series. Hinch’s bullpen management has been pretty flawless so far; Vogt will have his own bullpen to manage, along with a bench that should see heavy usage. For fans of nuanced baseball strategy, this series should prove to be a fascinating matchup.