Corey Kluber has been really good for a quite some time.
He’s a Cy Young Award winner and has finished in the top 10 in voting for three straight years. He trails only Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale in wins above replacement since 2014, with 22.4 WAR.
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Jose Altuve is a conventional contender for the MVP award, but at the same time, he really isn’t. As the best player on the best team in the American League — by a fairly large margin — Altuve checks off the two biggest boxes some voters use when filling out the ballot. He’s also a bit non-traditional, as he doesn’t hit a whole lot of homers or drive a ton of runners in. While he doesn’t have the typical power numbers of an MVP-winner, his overall line and overall value are immense, and he just pulled off one of the best hitting months of the last half-decade.
In the month of July, Jose Altuve hit .485/.523/.727, good for a wRC+ of 242, highest for any player in a month this season with a minimum of 80 plate appearances. Since 2002, the only player with a higher batting average in a month was Ivan Rodriguez, who hit .500 back in June of 2004.
We know that batting average has its flaws, and it might seem disappointing to find out Altuve’s .523 OBP only ranks 36th in any month since 2002. However, 13 of those months are courtesy of Barry Bonds. When we look at Altuve’s overall hitting numbers and account for park and era, that 242 wRC+ ranks 23rd, with Barry Bonds taking the top four slots and one more in the top-15. Since 2012, here are the best 11 months by a hitter:
Last night, Rafael Devers played his eighth game in the Major Leagues since being called up to fix Boston’s third base problem. In that eighth game, he recorded his 13th hit. It looked like this.
The man with a 96 mph fastball and devastating changeup looks more himself these days. Danny Salazar is back up with the Indians, dealing, and was even name-checked by his General Manager as a deadline acquisition that should make their rotation hum this postseason. It could just be two good starts, but his pitching mix is radically changed. And though that change looks drastic, the driver of change might actually be more subtle.
Is there anyone having a weirder season than Masahiro Tanaka? Dude is in the top fifteen when it comes to strikeouts minus walks, and yet he’s got an ERA over five. He’s been better recently! And he’s done it by… refusing to throw fastballs. Despite this wrinkle, he’s still giving up nearly two home runs per game. We haven’t even gotten to the weird day/night splits, but they’re part of the story, too. Weird.
At 48-57, the Atlanta Braves are nowhere near this year’s playoff race. Braves fans can look forward to a brighter future, however, as Atlanta placed nine prospects on KATOH+’s most recent top-100 list. Ozzie Albies, who is arguably the most promising of those prospects, made his big league debut last night, starting at second base.
Although he’s a 20-year-old who was born in 1997 (!), Albies’ minor-league performance suggests he’s ready for another challenge. He slashed .285/.330/.440 at Triple-A, with an exciting 21 steals. Despite his small stature, Albies popped nine homers in Triple-A, resulting in a respectable .156 ISO. Albies’ offensive performance would be compelling for any infield prospect. And coming from a 20-year-old middle infield prospect, it’s extremely compelling. Read the rest of this entry »
To make sense of things, to organize, to help create narratives, we, as humans, like to put labels on things. We like to place people and items in specific bins. And at trade deadline time, we typically categorize teams as either buyers or sellers. I am guilty of this and it does serve a practical purpose. Generally by the end of July, teams have a pretty good idea if they are contenders or looking ahead to next season.
But things are more complicated than they once were as the two wild cards — in addition to five-team divisions — have muddied the waters of the deadline market. Read the rest of this entry »
Back in 1906, the Chicago Cubs won 116 games, lost just 36, and put up a .763 win percentage equivalent to 124 wins in a 162-game schedule. Over the next 50 or so years, three other teams won at least 110 games, and another 11 posted at least 105 wins in a season. In 1961, Major League Baseball added eight more games to the schedule, giving us the 162-game schedule that we have today. Over the next 55 years, only two teams won more than 110 games, with more teams equaling greater parity, making it tougher to put up gaudy win totals. The New York Yankees put up a modern-day record 114 wins in 1998 on their way to a World Series title, but they were bested by the 2001 Seattle Mariners, who tied the all-time record by winning 116 games on their way to not winning the World Series. The Los Angeles Dodgers are perhaps the first team since with a shot at topping the 1906 Cubs and 2001 Mariners. The Dodgers have a shot at 117.
After all the moves at the trade deadline, the Dodgers’ record stood at 74-31, a .705 winning percentage, best in all of baseball by a healthy margin over the Houston Astros. If we assume the Dodgers would just win games at the same rate going forward, the team would end up with 114 wins. Here are a few different scenarios for LA going forward:
While outplaying their projections by the seven games necessary to tie the record and eight games better to beat the record isn’t exactly likely, their record thus far, especially since mid-May indicates it is something the team is capable of. Losing Clayton Kershaw for any amount of time is certainly a blow, but picking up Yu Darvish and getting massive reinforcements for the bullpen certainly lessens that loss and could make the team even better. Read the rest of this entry »
James Paxton had a pretty bad June. His season got off to a wonderful start, but then he landed on the DL, and shortly after his return, the calendar flipped and pitching was hard again. Paxton in June ran a 7+ ERA, and opponents blasted him to the tune of a .395 wOBA. Something appeared to be seriously wrong, but Paxton blamed his mechanics, and not his health. He found that he had some straightening out to do.
For me, one of the fundamental markers of greatness is the ability to adjust on the fly. It’s one thing to play well, but it’s quite another to play well, then struggle, then get back to playing well again. We’ve recently seen this with, say, Rich Hill. And, of course, we’ve seen this with Paxton. Paxton started six games in July, and he won each of them. He issued a total of just six walks, and he trimmed that .395 June wOBA almost literally in half. Paxton has gotten himself back on track, and I don’t know what more evidence people might need. James Paxton is extremely good. He is sufficiently proven.
The Mets have called up uber-prospect Amed Rosario to take over at shortstop. Rosario his more than earned this opportunity through his performance in the minors. Despite spending just two months at Double-A, the Mets started Rosario at Triple-A this year, and he rose to the challenge by hitting .328/.367/.466.
Rosario’s offensive performance has been impressive, but it’s less impressive after accounting for his environment. He’s played in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, with half of his games coming in the hitter-friendly Las Vegas ballpark. Still, his 16% strikeout rate coupled with his speed (19 steals, tied for third in the PCL) and propensity for hitting doubles and triples (his seven triples are tied for eighth in the PCL) is encouraging.
Rosario’s hitting isn’t what makes him a stud prospect, however. More impressive than his offensive numbers is that he’s produced them while playing shortstop as a 21-year-old. A shortstop does not need to hit all that much to be a useful big leaguer — the average shortstop has hit .257/.309/.402 (85 wRC+) this year — so any sign of offensive life from a shortstop prospect is encouraging. And since he’s only 21, there’s a very good chance that he will grow as a hitter as he matures. Read the rest of this entry »
