The Phillies don’t look like a very good team this season. They haven’t looked like a very good team in some time, really. That said, they aren’t all that far from contention in a muddled NL Wild Card race. After enduring 96 losses in 2017, the club enters the upcoming campaign with an improved roster, having replaced Freddy Galvis with J.P. Crawford and Tommy Joseph with Carlos Santana. They’re poised to receive a full season from Rhys Hoskins. They’ve also added Tommy Hunter to the bullpen.

The result of those additions to last year’s returnees is a projection for 74 wins. Improving by eight games in a single offseason is pretty impressive. The Phillies aren’t really expected to do that, though. By BaseRuns, which removes sequencing from a team’s run-scoring and -prevention, Philadelphia was actually a 70-win team last year. So the gain this offseason is more like four wins. Still, it’s something.

It’s also something that has come at little expense. Yes, the team added free-agent Carlos Santana this winter for an average of $20 million per season. Given the team’s financial wherewithal and the potential to compete now, however, it’s fair to wonder why the Phillies haven’t done more.

In recent weeks, Philadelphia has been connected both with Jake Arrieta and Lance Lynn but appear reluctant to continue moving forward this offseason. While a 74-win team will get nowhere near the playoffs, the current state of the club’s rotation means that the Phillies could easily spend their way to something closer to contention this season without greatly impacting their ability to contend in future years. In November, Travis Sawchik wondered when the Phillies would spend. With pitching still available in the free-agent market and a relatively mediocre set of Wild Card candidates, the time for the Phillies to spend at least a little bit of their reserves should be now.

Before getting to the Phillies’ present finances, let’s take a brief step back and remember where the club has been. Here are Opening Day payrolls for Philadelphia since they moved into Citizens Bank Park in 2004.

From 2010 to 2014, the Phillies’ payroll placed among the top four in the majors. It went down a bit in 2015, followed by a huge dip in 2016, and then another big drop this year. For some perspective, consider the Houston Astros’ tank-job, for which that club has been criticized. From 2009 to 2011, Astros payrolls averaged $91 million. Then, while tanking between 2012 and -14, the average payroll dropped 57% to $39 million. By comparison, the Phillies’ average payroll from 2013 to 2015 was $161 million, a figure which dropped 48% to $84 million in 2016-18. Philadelphia’s drop in payroll has been nearly as severe as the Astros’ own decline earlier this decade.

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On Tuesday, in Grapefruit League play, those in Clearwater, Fla., witnessed what might possibly represent the future of defensive alignment. They at least saw how aggressive and creative first-year Phillies manager Gabe Kapler is prepared to be.

As Matt Gelb reported for The Athletic, non-roster invite outfielder Collin Cowgill and Tommy Joseph (who is playing some outfield this spring) were told before the game that, if Tigers switch-hitting prospect Victor Reyes batted left-handed, they would swap corner-outfield positions. Reyes did bat left-handed, and when he did, Cowgill and Joseph swapped their positions mid-inning.

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Last Wednesday, a commenter named Boofer (thanks, Boofer!) asked me to look into a book by former Mets and Phillies Outfielder Lenny Dykstra called House of Nails. In said book, Dykstra claims to have hired a team of private investigators for $500,000 to look into the backgrounds of umpires and discover their dirty secrets. This is a family site, so I won’t go into any great detail about what most of those secrets are. Suffice to say, however, that they concern certain details about the umpires’ private lives, such as sex and gambling, that the umpires ostensibly wouldn’t have wanted to be made public. Dykstra says that he collected those secrets as leverage to get a better strike zone from umpires.

According to Dykstra, it worked. Consider this, from a 2015 appearance on The Herd:

For those who’d prefer not to watch the video, it’s more or less Dykstra pantomiming an at-bat during which he asks an umpire if the latter “covered the spread” on a bet the previous night and then suggesting to Colin Cowherd that he received favorable calls after having successfully conveyed his meaning to said umpire.

Regarding Dykstra’s claims, I think two questions fall within the purview of this site. First: is there any objective evidence that Dykstra benefited from a smaller strike zone than his peers? And second: if Dykstra’s claims are true, are they also illegal?

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Mike Shawaryn hadn’t put much thought into it. Finger pressure is instrumental in his success, both as a pitcher and as a musician, but how the two intertwine isn’t a subject he’d addressed. Not until I broached the subject this winter.

A 22-year-old right-hander out of the University of Maryland, Shawaryn is one of the top prospects in the Red Sox system (Baseball America has him No. 8; Eric Longenagen expects to rank him similarly when he puts together his forthcoming Red Sox list). Displaying a power arsenal, he fanned 169 batters in 134-and-two-thirds innings last year between low-A Greenville and high-A Salem.

When he’s not blowing away hitters, Shawaryn is playing the piano and the saxophone — and he’s a neophyte with neither. Boston’s pick in the fifth round of the 2016 draft has been tickling the ivories and blowing on a sax ever since his elementary school days in South Jersey.

Both instruments require dexterous fingers. Ditto pitching, where you’re gripping and releasing an object whose movement is influenced by the placement of digits on seams. Is there a direct correlation?

“I’ve never really thought about it like that, but the feel of the ball in your hand is obviously important,” Shawaryn said after first contemplating the idea. “Now, kind of connecting the dots, I’d say it’s the piano more so than the saxophone. The pressure you put on the keys determines the sound of it, the shape of the music. That’s probably helped me develop a type of feel in my fingers for the seams on the ball — what fingers I need to put pressure on to influence the shape of a pitch.”

And then there are rhythm and tempo. Pitchers change speeds within an at bat, and musicians change speeds within a song. Read the rest of this entry »

The Phillies are currently hiring Video Coaching Representatives and TrackMan Operators across multiple affiliate locations.

Position: Video Coaching Representative

Position Overview
Oversee the daily Video Coaching operations at assigned minor league affiliate. Duties will include, but not be limited to, filming and logging home and road games and assisting in daily instructional film sessions with coaches, players, and staff. Representative will also be asked to take part in daily IT assistance within the Video Coaching department and may have the opportunity to contribute in other operational areas including sports science, advance scouting, and analytics as needed.

Essential Duties

• Open and oversee operations of Video Coaching room on a daily basis
• Be able to operate, troubleshoot, and support IP cameras, computer networks, and hard drives Film and accurately log all home and road games using BATS video system
• Upload all logged games to the Phillies Video FTP server in Philadelphia
• Assist with daily video viewing sessions between Phillies coaching staff and players
• Film bullpens, batting practices, and workouts based on requests by Phillies coaches and staff Provide regular status reports to Video Coaching staff in Philadelphia and Clearwater
• Assist with sports science, advance scouting, and analytics initiatives as needed

Qualifications

• Bachelor’s Degree or currently enrolled college student
• Must be technology savvy and possess strong knowledge of computers, computer networking, and storage
• Previous experience working with BATS video system is preferred
• Previous experience working in a baseball clubhouse is preferred
• Must possess strong knowledge of the game of baseball
• Must be detail-oriented and well-organized
• Must be able to interact professionally with players, coaches, front office personnel and medical/training staff
• Must be able to work flexible hours, including nights, weekends and holidays
• Must possess strong work ethic
• Must be a team player with strong oral and written communication skills
• Must be active, quick-thinking, and a good technology troubleshooter

Physical Demands and Working Conditions
Must be able to stand and walk in hot conditions for long periods of time.

Position: TrackMan Operator

Position Overview
Log all home games at assigned minor league affiliate using the TrackMan Baseball Analysis software. Operator may have the opportunity to contribute in other operational areas as needed, including sports science equipment maintenance and management.

Essential Duties

• Accurately log all home games of assigned affiliate using TrackMan Baseball Analysis software
• Operate and troubleshoot computer networks
• Upload all logged games to the Phillies TrackMan server in Philadelphia
• Assist with daily analysis between Phillies coaching staff and players
• Assist with special requests from Phillies Minor League Video Coordinator/Phillies Baseball Operations Offices
• Provide regular status reports to Minor League Video Coordinator in Clearwater

Qualifications

• Bachelor’s Degree or currently enrolled college student
• Must be technology savvy and possess strong knowledge of computers, computer networking, and storage
• Previous experience working with TrackMan software is preferred
• Previous experience working in a baseball clubhouse is preferred
• Must possess strong knowledge of the game of baseball
• Must be detail-oriented and well-organized
• Must be able to interact professionally with players, coaches, front office personnel, and medical/training staff
• Must be able to work flexible hours including nights, weekends and holidays
• Must possess strong work ethic
• Must be a team player with strong oral and written communication skills

Location Information
The Phillies intend to hire one Video Coaching Representative and one TrackMan Operator for each of the following locations, with the exception of the GCL teams in Clearwater, where they will hire two Video Coaching Representatives (one for each GCL team):

• Allentown, PA (AAA)
• Reading, PA (AA)
• Clearwater, FL (Class A Advanced)
• Lakewood, NJ (Class A)
• Williamsport, PA (Short Season)
• Clearwater, FL (Rookie)

All positions run from mid-March through the end of their respective minor league season, with the exception of Williamsport, which will begin in mid-June, and the Clearwater TrackMan position, which begins in late February.

To Apply
To apply, candidates should send their resume and cover letter to JLipman@Phillies.com with either “Video Coaching Representative” or “TrackMan Operator” in the subject line, along with their affiliate preference if they have one. The team will begin reviewing applications immediately.

The Phillies is an Equal Opportunity Employer.

In this slowest of markets, one of the players who might be most adversely affected is Mike Moustakas.

Some thought it was possible, as the offseason began, that Moustakas might receive a $100-million deal this winter. Not only was he a third baseman who’d just authored a 38-homer season, but he was also still on the right side of 30. Of course, that sort of deal hasn’t emerged. It seems increasingly unlikely to emerge with each day.

Dave predicted a five-year, $95-million pact for Moustakas. The crowd predicted a five-year deal, as well, for $10 million fewer overall. Neither option seems probable at the moment: no free agent to date has secured more than a three-year contract, and there hasn’t been much reported interested in Moustakas.

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I noticed an underlying theme in both pieces I’ve written since coming back, along with many others written this offseason at FanGraphs. If you are a fan of a small- or medium-market team that will never spend to the luxury-tax line and thus always be at a disadvantage, do you want your team to try to always be .500 or better, or do you want them push all the chips in the middle for a smaller competitive window? In my stats vs. scouting article I referenced a progressive vs. traditional divide, which was broadly defined by design, but there are often noticeable differences in team-building strategies from the two overarching philosophies, which I will again illustrate broadly to show the two contrasting viewpoints.

The traditional clubs tend favor prospects with pedigree (bonus or draft position, mostly), with big tools/upside and the process of team-building is often to not push the chips into the middle (spending in free agency, trading prospects) until the core talents (best prospects and young MLB assets) have arrived in the big leagues and have established themselves. When that window opens, you do whatever you can afford to do within reason to make those 3-5 years the best you can and, in practice, it’s usually 2-3 years of a peak, often followed directly by a tear-down rebuild. The Royals appear to have just passed the peak stage of this plan, the Braves hope their core is established in 2019 and the Padres may be just behind the Braves (you could also argue the old-school Marlins have done this multiple times and are about to try again now).

On the progressive side, you have a more conservative, corporate approach where the club’s goal is to almost always have a 78-92 win team entering Spring Training, with a chance to make the playoffs every year, never with a bottom-ten ranked farm system, so they are flexible and can go where the breaks lead them. The valuation techniques emphasize the analytic more often, which can sometimes seem superior and sometimes seem foolish, depending on the execution. When a rare group of talent and a potential World Series contender emerges, the progressive team will push some chips in depending on how big the payroll is. The Rays have a bottom-five payroll and can only cash in some chips without mortgaging multiple future years, whereas the Indians and Astros are higher up the food chain and can do a little more when the time comes, and have done just that.

What we just saw in Pittsburgh (and may see soon in Tampa Bay) is what happens when a very low-payroll team sees a dip coming (controllable talent becoming uncontrolled soon) and doesn’t think there’s a World Series contender core, so they slide down toward the bottom end of that win range so that in a couple years they can have a sustainable core with a chance to slide near the top of it, rather than just tread water. Ideally, you can slash payroll in the down years, then reinvest it in the competing years (the Rays has done this in the past) to match the competitive cycle and not waste free-agent money on veterans in years when they are less needed. You could argue many teams are in this bucket, with varying payroll/margin for error: the D’Backs, Brewers, Phillies, A’s and Twins, along with the aforementioned Rays, Pirates, Indians and Astros.

Eleven clubs were over $175 million in payroll for the 2017 season (Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers, Giants, Nationals, Rangers, Orioles, Cubs, Angels), so let’s toss those teams out and ask fans of the other 19 clubs: if forced to pick one or the other, which of these overarching philosophies would you prefer to root for?

As Craig Edwards noted closer to the start of this offseason, the Phillies have a lot of money to spend. Edwards estimated that Philadelphia entered the winter with approximately $70 million in payroll space, trailing only a rebuilding Tigers club that is unlikely to invest as much in its major-league roster as in recent years. While the Phillies have also been in a rebuilding period in recent years, they believe they are on the ascent.

Earlier this offseason, I attempted to better understand when the Phillies might begin to spend and what type of spending might make sense in free agency for the club. While the Phillies are likely to keep significant spending power in reserve until next offseason to court the likes of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, I thought some buying might make sense this offseason. Namely, this author thought it would behoove the club to target either some of the top free agents under 30 years old (like Tyler Chatwood, for example) and/or to explore two-year deals for talented arms like Michael Pineda and Drew Smyly — that is, pitchers coming off injury who wouldn’t benefit the club much in 2018 but could provide returns in 2019.

I closed with this:

The Phillies likely have their eye on spending next offseason, but there could be some opportunity this winter, too, for a team with about as much spending power as any club. At some point, they’ll need to use it.

Indeed, Philadelphia has started to use it considerable payroll space. They’ve just done it in a curious way.

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Carlos Santana is trading Polish Boys for cheesesteaks, looks like, agreeing this afternoon on a three-year, $60 million deal (with an option for a fourth, at $17.5 million) to join the Phillies. The deal probably makes sense from a money standpoint, and Santana is a really good switch-hitting slugger with power and patience, but… does it make sense from the Phillies’ perspective?

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Well, this is unexpected.

Source confirms: Carlos Santana in agreement with #Phillies, three years, $60M. First reported: @JonHeyman.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 15, 2017

I’ve argued all winter that Santana was going to do a lot better than the 3/$45M the crowd projected for him, and put him at #1 on my Free Agent Bargains post, as I thought the expectations of what he would sign for were just too low. And obviously the Phillies agreed, pushing up to the same deal the Indians gave Edwin Encarnacion last winter. 3/$60M is a perfectly fair price for what Santana is, and might still actually be a good deal.

But there’s no way around this; the fit in Philly is weird and doesn’t really make sense. Santana is a short-term value, a guy who can help a team win right now, but probably won’t age extremely well. We currently have the Phillies projected for 74 wins. Santana doesn’t push them into playoff position.

And given that they already have Rhys Hoskins at first base and a crowded outfield, it’s not actually clear where Santana is going to play, or if the redistribution of talent to get him in their line-up will be a significant improvement. They could stick Santana at third, I guess, but he was horrible there, and Cleveland pulling the plug on that experiment should be a red flag if that’s the plan.

If it’s not the plan, then Hoskins is probably headed back to the outfield, a position they didn’t think he could play last year, which is why he spent four months in Triple-A destroying minor league pitching. And while he might be better than expected out there, he’s probably not going to be good, and he’d displace either Aaron Altherr or Nick Williams, both of whom look somewhat interesting.

So, yeah, I don’t know. Carlos Santana is good. This price is fine, and maybe even a bargain. Every contender with an opening at first base should have been in on this. The Phillies aren’t a contender and didn’t have a need at first base, so now this is going to force other things to happen, and unless those other things are turning one of their OFs into a super valuable pitcher, I’m not sure this actually makes them much better.

It’s impossible to judge this until we know the plan. But that we don’t know the plan makes this a little bit weird right now.