Archive for Phillies

Projecting the Prospects Traded on Friday Night

Three minor-ish trades went down on Friday night. The Mets acquired A.J. Ramos from the Marlins for Merandy Gonzalez and Ricardo Cespedes; the Nationals acquired Howie Kendrick from the Phillies for McKenzie Mills; the Orioles acquired Jeremy Hellickson from the Phillies for Garrett Cleavinger and Hyun Soo Kim.  Below are the projections for the prospects who changed hands. WAR figures account for the player’s first six major-league seasons. KATOH denotes the stats-only version of the projection system, while KATOH+ denotes the methodology that includes a player’s prospect rankings.

None of the players dealt last night are top prospects, and as a result, their likelihood of outcomes graphs are heavily skewed towards “no MLB”. Kyle Glaser recently found that fewer than one in five prospects traded at the deadline contribute more than one positive WAR season. All three of these pitchers seem like good bets to fall into that bottom four-fifths.

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The Phillies’ Returns for Hellickson and Kendrick

Philadelphia made a pair of trades Friday, sending Howie Kendrick to Washington for LHP McKenzie Mills. They also traded RHP Jeremy Hellickson to Baltimore for LHP Garrett Cleavinger and OF Hyun Soo Kim. Philadelphia also received bonus pool money from both clubs.

Baltimore gets
RHP Jeremy Hellickson

Washington gets
2B Howie Kendrick

Philadelphia gets
LHP McKenzie Mills
LHP Garrett Cleavinger
OF Hyun Soo Kim
International Bonus Slots

Mills is a 21-year old, big-bodied lefty with advanced changeup feel. He was an 18th round pick out of Sprayberry HS (GA) in 2014 and then spent each of his first three pro seasons in either rookie or short-season ball. Mills struggled with control. His strikeout and walk rates — 20% and 12%, respectively, in 2016 and 28% and 5% this year — have both drastically improved this year and he’s having more success as the season goes on despite having already doubled his innings total frmo last year.

As far as the stuff in concerned, Mills is a deceptive 88-92 with downhill plane and could have an above average changeup at maturity. His below average curveball has shape but not power. He can locate it, and his other pitches, and projects to have starter’s control/command. He has K’d 118 hitters in 104.2 innings with Low-A Potomac and is a potential backend starter.

Cleavinger, a 2015 3rd rounder out of Oregon, is a pure relief prospect with a low-90s fastball and loopy, twisting curveball. His command is very erratic and, while he has premium loogy funk and repertoire, it needs to develop significantly if Cleavinger’s to have a steady big league role.

The Phillies also acquired $1 million in international bonus money yesterday General Manager Matt Klentak’s post-trade comments indicate that money will be speculatively used to as yet unidentified or available talent on the international market. The Phillies were originally allotted a $4.75 million bonus pool for the international period and spent a significant amount of it on five players, including SS Luis Garcia ($2.5 mil) and four other players who all signed for around $500k each.


Daily Prospect Notes: 7/27 and 7/28

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Michael Kopech, RHP, Chicago AL (Profile)
Level: Double-A   Age: 21   Org Rank: 3   Top 100: 21
Line: 6 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 1 R, 12 K

Notes
Engineered in a lab by the Abercrombie Corperation and then accidentally exposed to Serum 102 by The Syndicate, Kopech’s superhuman stuff is almost unhittable when he’s throwing strikes and, for his last few starts, he has. Kopech has a chance to have an 80 fastball and two plus secondary pitches, giving him one of the few true top-of-the-rotation ceilings in all of prospectdom.

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Scouting Philadelphia’s Return for Pat Neshek

Philadelphia sent All Star reliever Pat Neshek to Colorado on Wednesday night in exchange for three prospects. Let’s refresh:

Colorado gets
RHP Pat Neshek

Philadelphia gets
SS Jose Gomez
RHP J.D. Hammer
RHP Alejandro Requena

Gomez, a 20-year old infielder at Low-A Asheville, is the owner of a .316 career batting average and indeed scouts like his feel to hit. Gomez doesn’t get much out of his lower half and is a bit undersized, and thus very unlikely to hit for much power barring a mechanical change, but he has good hand-eye coordination, above average bat speed and a chance to be a plus hitter at peak.

An average runner with an average arm, Gomez lacks the high-end athleticism typically found at shortstop and is not a lock to stay there. He’s already seeing time at second and third base, two positions where Gomez will likely lack the power to profile every day should one of them become his long term defensive home. He projects as a bat-first utility player.

Hammer is a 23-year old relief prospect with a plus, running fastball that will touch 97. He was a 24th rounder out of Marshall last year and had struck out 47 hitters at Low-A before a late-June promotion to Hi-A Lancaster. Hammer’s arm is lightning quick and while he shows some feel for locating his fastball to his arm side with consistency (in part because it naturally runs that way), his command is currently below average. He also has a power slider (I’ve had scouts call it a slider and curveball, and the way its’ described makes it sound like a hard slurve, so I’ll call it a slider) that flashes average. He projects as a middle relief piece but could be more if a better secondary pitch can be coaxed out of that arm speed and, as a Colorado high schooler who then went to a college not typically associated with baseball, perhaps that’s coming late.

Finally, 20-year old Venezuelan Alejandro Requena is a pitchability who had posted a 2.85 ERA this season at Asheville. He sits in the 88-92 range with his fastball which he locates readily to both sides of the plate and he has a loopy, fringey curveball that he can lob in for strikes to get ahead of hitters or bury in the dirt when ahead in the count. He could max out as a backend starter but is more likely to fall in the starters 6-10 range teams typically need to dip into during the course of a season.

As far as FVs go, Gomez is a 40 for me, projecting as a utility man with a better bat than usually found there. That’s a 45 at peak with Gomez’s proximity from the Majors diluting the mark. The other two are, in FanGraphs prospect parlance, honorable mention prospects worth continued attention.

Signed: July 2, 2013 out of Venezuela
Age 20 Height 5’11 Weight 175 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Speed Defense Throw
30/60 40/45 20/40 50/50 40/50 50/50

Rockies Acquire Pat Neshek, Want to Kill You with Sliders

The Colorado Rockies bullpen has seen better days. Dominant at the start of the season, we’ve long passed the point where it could call itself that. In order to help rectify this problem, the team acquired reliever Pat Neshek from the Philadelphia Phillies tonight:

In a subsequent tweet, the full scope of the deal came together. It is as follows:

Colorado Receives
Player Position Age 2017 WAR Rest of Season WAR Contract
Pat Neshek RP 36 1.5 0.4 Free Agent After 2017
ROS WAR is based on ZIPS/Steamer projection and assumes 22 IP.
Philadelphia Receives
Prospect Position Age Level Prospect Rank
Jose Gomez SS 20 Low-A Honorable Mention
J.D. Hammer RHP 22 High-A N/A
Alejandro Requena RHP 20 Low-A N/A
Prospect Rank is based on Eric Longenhagen’s preseason team write-ups.

Let’s go back to the Rockies bullpen for a second, so we can see the impetus for this trade (July numbers are as of Wednesday morning):

Colorado Rockies 2017 Bullpen, by Month
# IP K% BB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP SD MD WAR WAR Rank
April 90.1 24.9% 8.5% 9.1% 4.28 3.23 3.74 37 6 2.0 1
May 89.2 24.9% 9.2% 13.4% 3.81 3.86 3.89 18 8 1.0 11
June 92.0 24.2% 9.7% 15.6% 5.18 4.56 4.30 18 13 0.4 19
July 65.2 18.3% 10.2% 21.0% 4.93 5.58 4.69 12 9 -0.4 30

Fright. Night. Comparisons to the Titanic’s maiden voyage and the Rockies bullpen are welcome. Except with the acquisition of Neshek, the Rockies are aiming to steer around those icebergs. Neshek has been a top-10 reliever this season, and automatically becomes one of the Rockies two-best relievers, if not their best reliever.

Always a pretty efficient pitcher in terms of walks and strikeouts, Neshek has really maxed out this season, particularly with his strikeout rate, which is at a career-best 30.4%. He is simultaneously getting batters to swing at more pitches than ever and making them miss more than ever, which is a particularly nasty combination.

Neshek is a fly-ball pitcher, which generally you would think of as a bad thing at Coors Field, but Jeff Zimmerman introduced research last week that shows that fly-ball pitchers have been able to handle the home run surge better than ground-ball pitchers. And indeed Neshek has been. His HR/FB is at the second-lowest mark for his career.

Neshek works in a sinker-slider fashion almost exclusively — Pitch Info has his pitch mix as 49.3% sinkers, 47.8% sliders and 2.7% change-ups. If those first two percentages seem high, it’s because they are. His sinker percentage ranks 20th among qualified relievers, and his slider percentage ranks 10th. The only other two qualified relievers who are throwing both their sinker and slider both 40 percent of the time are Peter Moylan and Luke Gregerson.

Looking at that slider usage leaderboard, we find that the two relievers just ahead of Neshek are also Rockies’ pitchers — Adam Ottavino and Greg Holland. Heading into today, Rockies relievers were tied for fourth in the majors and first in the National League in slider usage with … the Phillies. With Neshek heading west to Colorado, the Rockies’ slider usage is only going to increase. If there’s a fly in this ointment, it’s that the Dodgers and Nationals have been crushing sliders this season, but should the Rockies make it that far, it will be fascinating to watch that strength vs. strength matchup.

With this trade, the Rockies should be able to achieve the simultaneous goals of dumping Jordan Lyles at the nearest dumpster fire (they’d want him to feel right at home, after all) and relying a lot less on Ottavino. Ottavino has been striking out hitters at a level better than his career average, but his control and home runs allowed have taken a significant turn for the worse, and it will help Colorado a bunch that they will be able to throttle back his high-leverage usage. At least until he figures out how to get his control back under, uh, control.

Moreover, this is a clear signal from the Rockies front office that the team is interested in competing for the NL pennant right now. As former Purple Row writer Andrew Fisher pointed out on Twitter after the trade was announced, this may very well be the first time the Rockies have acquired an All-Star at the trade deadline in the same season in which said player was an All-Star. While relievers are not usually the most exciting All-Stars, this is still a pretty big deal for Colorado.

Pat Neshek is likely all smiles now that he is heading to a contending team. (Photo: Ian D’Andrea)

Since Neshek is a free agent at the end of the season, it didn’t cost them a ton either. All three players acquired by Philly have interesting things about them, but none of them make you sit up in your chair and say wow. The one who got any prospect heat this spring was Jose Gomez. Here’s what Eric Longenhagen had to say about him last November:

Jose Gomez, SS, 2.8 KATOH+ – A stocky 5-foot-11, Gomez is an average runner with an average arm and could be a 45 or 50 at shortstop at maturity. He has mature bat-to-ball skills and hit well for his age in the Pioneer League this year but lacks power projection because the body is already pretty maxed out. He’s got a long-term utility profile.

Gomez posted a 132 wRC+ in rookie ball last year, and has replicated that this year in Low-A Asheville with a 136 wRC+. This is notable in the sense that Asheville’s ballpark is generally better for left-handed hitters, and Gomez is a right-handed hitter. He has notched 18 steals, but he’s also been caught 11 times, so we’ll charitably classify his baserunning as “raw.” Still, a .324/.374/.437 is a line you’d love to see from a middle infielder. While Gomez has played mainly shortstop this year, he has also started 10+ games at second- and third base, so his prep for that future utility role is already well underway.

The internet, as it is wont to do, briefly became obsessed with J.D. Hammer’s looks this evening. His 38.9% strikeout rate also may be worthy of future obsession, but since he’s compiled it at Low-A and High-A, we’ll hold off on salivating for another few months. Also tamping down expectations is his high walk rate since being promoted to High-A. It is a little disappointing to see him traded away though, as he is a Colorado native, and it would have been a great story had he ascended to the majors in a Rockies uniform.

After three seasons in rookie ball, Alejandro Requena is pitching well for Asheville this season. His 2.85 ERA is tops among Tourists starters, and it ranks 10th among South Atlantic League pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched this season.

The Rockies bullpen started the season flying high, but has since come crashing back to earth. By acquiring Pat Neshek, they have put themselves on much firmer ground as the pennant race starts to heat up. He won’t win them the World Series all by himself. But his acquisition — which cost them three interesting but likely low-ceiling players — signals that Colorado has designs on getting there, and that they will try to get there on the wings of so many sliders.


Daily Prospect Notes: 7/25

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Enyel De Los Santos, RHP, San Diego (Profile)
Level: Double-A   Age: 21   Org Rank: 24   Top 100: NR
Line: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 0 R, 8 K

Notes
The good-bodied De Los Santos, acquired from Seattle for Joaquin Benoit in November of 2015, missed bats with all three of his pitches last night, garnering swings and misses on his 92-95 mph fastball both within the strike zone and above it and with his fading changeup. De Los Santos also has a solid-average curveball that he can bend into the zone for cheap, early-count strikes the third time through the lineup, but he’s becoming more adept at burying it in the dirt when he’s ahead. He generally lives in the strike zone and is a good bet to start; the only knock I’ve heard from scouts is that the stuff plays down due to poor extension, which might explain the modest strikeout rate despite good reports on the stuff.

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Matt Stairs on the ABCs of Hitting (The B Is Bad)

Matt Stairs loves to teach hitting, and he has plenty of teaching to do. The 49-year-old former slugger is in his first season as Philadelphia’s hitting coach, and given the youthfulness of the Phillies lineup, he’s got his hands full. Raw talent dots the roster, but that’s essentially what it is. Finished products are in short supply.

Stairs isn’t heavy-handed with his approach — he wants his hitters to be themselves — but at the same time, he knows what does and doesn’t work. With 19 big-league seasons as a player under his belt, he understands the nuts and bolts of the craft as well as anyone. So while he’s being entrusted to mold and shape young Phillies, he’s not doing so in a cookie-cutter way. For Stairs, it’s all about doing what you do, but in a more efficient, and more productive, manner.

———

Stairs on exit velocity and launch angle: “I think it’s mostly just different terminology now. Hitters have always thought about exit velocity, just not in those words. Our thought process was hitting the ball hard and getting the proper angle to the baseball.

“You’re not creating exit velocity by swinging harder. It’s about making solid contact. It’s about being short to the baseball with a quick, compact swing. We have guys like Tommy Joseph, and Cameron Rupp — their swings are so short that, at times, when the ball comes off their bat, it accelerates. You create bat speed and exit velocity by using your top hand and driving your bat through the zone.

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Daily Prospect Notes: 6/8

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Yordan Alvarez, DH/1B, Houston (Profile)
Level: Low-A   Age: 19   Org Rank: HM   Top 100: NR
Line: 2-for-5, 2 HR

Notes
Alvarez is hitting a preposterous .413/.500/.693 as a 19-year-old in full-season ball. Even once you acknowledge that better hitters at lower levels are going to have especially high BABIPs because they’re hitting balls harder than the baseline player at that level, Alvarez’s current .553 mark is unsustainable. Nevertheless, reports on the ease of his power and picturesque swing are very strong. There’s some swing-and-miss risk here but also a potential middle-of-the-order bat.

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Baseball’s Toughest (and Easiest) Schedules So Far

When you look up and see that the Athletics are in the midst of a two-game mid-week series against the Marlins in late May, you might suspect that the major-league baseball schedule is simply an exercise in randomness. At this point in the campaign, that’s actually sort of the case. The combination of interleague play and the random vagaries of an early-season schedule conspire to mean that your favorite team hasn’t had the same schedule as your least favorite team. Let’s try to put a number on that disparity.

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Which Team Has MLB’s Best Double-Play Combo?

These days, we’re blessed with a number of amazing young shortstops. Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, and Corey Seager, for example, are already among baseball’s top players. Manny Machado is a shortstop who just accidentally plays third base. All of them are younger than 25.

Second base isn’t as notable for its youth. Last year, however, second basemen recorded one of the top collective offensive lines at the position in the history of the game. Good job, second basemen.

So both positions are experiencing a bit of a renaissance at the moment. This led me to wonder which teams might be benefiting most from that renaissance. It’s rare that teams can keep a second baseman and shortstop together long enough to form a lasting and effective double-play combo. Right now, MLB has some pretty great ones. But which is the greatest — particularly, on the defensive side of thing? Let’s explore.

First, we want to know who has played together for awhile. Since the start of the 2015 season, 21 players have played at least 200 games as a shortstop, and 23 have done the same at second base. Cross-referencing them and weeding out the players who have played for multiple teams, we get the following list:

Teams with 2B & SS with 200+ G, 2015-2017
Team Second Baseman G Shortstop G
BAL Jonathan Schoop 281 J.J. Hardy 264
BOS Dustin Pedroia 279 Xander Bogaerts 346
CLE Jason Kipnis 297 Francisco Lindor 290
DET Ian Kinsler 335 Jose Iglesias 279
HOU Jose Altuve 338 Carlos Correa 288
MIA Dee Gordon 257 Adeiny Hechavarria 288
PHI Cesar Hernandez 270 Freddy Galvis 339
SF Joe Panik 257 Brandon Crawford 315
TEX Rougned Odor 300 Elvis Andrus 347

That’s a pretty good list. There are some tough omissions here. The most notable is the Angels, as Andrelton Simmons hasn’t been with them long enough to meet our bar here. Given Johnny Giavotella’s defensive contributions, however, we can guess that the combo here would be quite one-sided. Also excluded are teams with new double-play combos, like the Dodgers and Mariners. Not only are the Logan Forsythe-Corey Seager and Robinson CanoJean Segura combos new this season, but thanks to injuries they haven’t even played together much this season. Cano-Segura has only happened 22 times this season, and Forsythe-Seager only 10 times.

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