Archive for Red Sox

Craig Breslow Has Brought a Touch of Minnesota to Boston’s Pitching Program

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Craig Breslow is restructuring the Red Sox pitching program. Hired in October to replace Chaim Bloom as Boston’s Chief Baseball Officer, the 43-year-old erstwhile reliever is doing so in multiple ways, and that includes having effectively cloned himself with a Twin. Earlier this month, Boston’s new top executive lured Justin Willard away from Minnesota to be the team’s Director of Pitching — the same role Breslow held in Chicago when he worked to revamp the Cubs’ pitching development process just a few years ago.

That Breslow’s approach is largely data-driven and comes with an adherence to bat-missing qualities is a big reason why Willard was brought on board. Much like the Yale graduate who hired him, Willard — a former college hurler with an MBA from Radford University — is both well-versed in analytics and an advocate of arsenals rife with plus raw stuff. Read the rest of this entry »


JAWS and the 2024 Hall of Fame Ballot: Adrián Beltré

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2024 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

As befits a player who spent 21 seasons in the majors and ranks 15th all-time in games played, Adrián Beltré really had two careers. In the first one, he was the prodigy who didn’t quite live up to expectations. Signed (illegally) by the Dodgers out of the Dominican Republic at age 15, he reached the majors at 19, became a free agent at 25 after one of the greatest walk years of all time, and disappointed at his next stop in Seattle. Through his age-30 season, he hadn’t made a single All-Star team, and he’d played in just one postseason series.

In his second career, which began with a brief stop in Boston before a longer stay in Texas, Beltré was a well-decorated and even beloved superstar. His elite defense carried over, and he emerged as a prolific slugger with exceptional contact skills, a team leader, and a fan favorite who won five Gold Gloves and made four All-Star teams while helping the Rangers to four playoff appearances and a pennant. He became the first Dominican-born player to reach the 3,000-hit milestone, as well as the career leader in hits among players born outside the United States, a surefire Hall of Famer in waiting. Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Boston Red Sox – Multiple Openings

Direct Links (Please see full job postings below):

Sport Science Assistant – Seasonal
Sport Science Assistant – Dominican Republic
Associate Pro Scout


Sport Science Assistant – Seasonal

Location: Fort Myers, FL, United States

DEPARTMENT OVERVIEW:
The Sport Science Team at the Boston Red Sox endeavors to advance understanding and enhance performance through the implementation of evidence-based practice and innovation. This is achieved through an interdisciplinary approach, with a particular emphasis on key pillars of collaboration, research, education, and application.

POSITION OVERVIEW:
The Seasonal Sport Science Assistant serves as a member of the Performance Department within Red Sox Player Development. This position is designed to advance the understanding and identification of key performance factors and the development of systems that enhance athlete health and performance. Based in Fort Myers, this position supports the day-to-day operations of the Sport Science/Performance Team. The Seasonal Sport Science Assistant will work to support all the disciplines that make up the Performance Team (Data Scientists, S&C, PT, AT, Mental Performance, and Nutrition) to provide reliable support and drive an evidence-based approach to optimize performance.

As the Red Sox continue to build a team capable of being the standard in player and staff development, we are looking for candidates who are organized with uncompromising attention to detail, inquisitive, intellectually curious, data-driven, and open minded. Due to the nature of the role, the candidate must also possess strong interpersonal, communication, and teamwork/leadership skills.

This position runs from January 2024 through the end of September 2024 and is based in Fort Myers, FL.

RESPONSIBILITIES

  • Athletes Testing & Tracking
  • Assist in the execution of physical testing protocols while seeking more efficient, valid, and reliable methodologies.
  • When necessary, travel to amateur scouting workouts to assist in physical testing of prospective draftees.
  • Data Management & Analytics
  • Assist in organization-wide data aggregation, manipulation, and report generation.
  • Biomechanics Testing & Reporting
  • Assist the Biomechanics Department with data capture and data aggregation in our FTM-based biomechanics lab.
  • Delivery & Application of Performance Insights
  • Assist in FTM-based daily workload tracking (GPS, Isometric Testing, etc.) and related data management.
  • Research & Technology Implementation
  • Assist in research projects and with the implementation of new Sport Science technologies.
  • Sport Science Systems Administration
  • Assist in managing administration of all Sport Science systems including Smartabase, Bridge, Vald Forcedecks, etc.
  • Other tasks as assigned by the Assistant Coordinator, Sport Science.

CHARACTERISTICS/QUALIFICATIONS

  • Undergraduate degree in Sport Science, Exercise Science, Biomechanics, or related field is required; Master’s Degree preferred.
  • Ability to work evening, weekend, and holiday hours is required.
  • Proficient in Microsoft Office.
  • Experience with Smartabase is preferred.
  • Other programming and database skills are a plus.
  • Bilingual (English/Spanish) is preferred.
  • Requires infrequent travel to amateur scouting workouts hosted across the US.

At the Boston Red Sox and Fenway Sports Management, we go beyond embracing diversity. We’re committed to living by our values, strengthening our community, and creating a workplace where people genuinely feel like they belong.

Too often, job seekers don’t apply to positions because they don’t meet every qualification. If you love this role and are great at what you do, we encourage you to apply. Your unique skills and experiences might just be what we’ve been looking for.

Prospective employees will receive consideration without discrimination based on race, religious creed, color, sex, age, national origin, handicap, disability, military/veteran status, ancestry, sexual orientation, gender identity/expression or protected genetic information.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.


Sport Science Assistant – Dominican Republic

DEPARTMENT OVERVIEW:
The Sport Science Team at the Boston Red Sox endeavors to advance understanding and enhance performance through the implementation of evidence-based practice and innovation. This is achieved through an interdisciplinary approach, with a particular emphasis on key pillars of collaboration, research, education, and application.

POSITION OVERVIEW:
The Dominican Republic Sport Science Assistant serves as a member of the Sport Performance Team within Red Sox Player Development. This position is designed to advance the understanding and identification of key performance factors and the development of systems that enhance athlete health and performance. Based in our Academy near Santo Domingo, DR, this position serves as ‘on the ground’ support to the Academy athletes and coaches, as well as the Dominican-based International Scouting Department. Responsibilities and time will be split evenly between International PD and Scouting.

As the Red Sox continue to build a team capable of being the standard in player and staff development, we are looking for candidates who are organized with uncompromising attention to detail, inquisitive, intellectually curious, data-driven, and open minded. Due to the nature of the role, the candidate must also possess strong interpersonal, communication, and teamwork/leadership skills.

RESPONSIBILITIES

  • Athlete Management System Administration
  • Assume a leading role in the administration of the Boston Red Sox Athlete Management System (AMS) and the integration of performance technology, including data collection and data entry, data cleaning and processing, and generating reports for various groups (e.g., players, sport performance team members, front office staff, scouting).
  • Athlete Testing & Tracking
  • Coordinate and lead physical testing protocols while seeking more efficient, valid, and reliable methodologies.
  • Collaborate with International Scouting to lead physical testing and data collection initiatives at amateur workouts.
  • Data Management & Analytics
  • Assist in organization-wide data aggregation, manipulation, and report generation.
  • Delivery & Application of Performance Insights
  • Build relationships with and support other departments within Sport Performance, International Scouting, Field Staff, and players to understand needs and deliver insights.
  • Education, Research, & Technology Implementation
  • Develop documentation and educational materials to communicate Sport Science findings and best practices.
  • Work with Sports Science Assistant Coordinator to seek out research opportunities that could positively affect the Red Sox and athlete performance. 
  • Stay abreast of the latest research and innovations in the areas of sport science and sport performance.
  • Other tasks as assigned by the Coordinator, Sport Science.

CHARACTERISTICS/QUALIFICATIONS

  • Undergraduate degree in sports science, exercise science, data science/analytics or a related field required; Master’s Degree preferred.  
  • Experience working with a multi-disciplinary performance team in an elite/ professional sport environment is preferred.
  • Experience working with Athlete Management Systems.
  • Proficient in Microsoft Office (Excel, PowerPoint, Word).
  • Spanish speaking is a requirement.
  • Requires travel to amateur scouting workouts hosted across the Dominican Republic as well as limited travel to Fort Myers, FL.

At the Boston Red Sox and Fenway Sports Management, we go beyond embracing diversity. We’re committed to living by our values, strengthening our community, and creating a workplace where people genuinely feel like they belong.

Too often, job seekers don’t apply to positions because they don’t meet every qualification. If you love this role and are great at what you do, we encourage you to apply. Your unique skills and experiences might just be what we’ve been looking for.

Prospective employees will receive consideration without discrimination based on race, religious creed, color, sex, age, national origin, handicap, disability, military/veteran status, ancestry, sexual orientation, gender identity/expression or protected genetic information.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.


Associate Pro Scout

DEPARTMENT OVERVIEW:
The Pro Scouting Department is responsible for evaluation, information and intelligence gathering, and decision-making input for players across all professional leagues, including: Major & Minor Leagues, Independent Leagues, and Professional Winter Leagues. The cornerstone of the department is the scouting and evaluation of players through both in-person and remote coverage. We collaborate consistently with the Baseball Analytics, Player Development, International Pro, and Personnel/Strategy groups to leverage organizational knowledge and help drive decisions on player acquisitions.

POSITION OVERVIEW:
The Associate Pro Scout position centers around at least one season of development and education in all aspects of professional scouting with the Boston Red Sox. The position will focus on three primary areas: player evaluation, integration & analysis of data/proprietary information through research projects/tasks, and video & data collection. The Associate Pro Scout will receive extensive training in Boston Red Sox scouting standards by attending regular education/feedback sessions, working closely with experienced staff, and getting exposure to all levels of professional baseball. They will collaborate with the Front Office to complete targeted research and maintain ongoing projects with a focus on player evaluation and acquisition. Additionally, they will assist in the capture of video and other data on a regular basis. Travel is required for this position with possible relocation to Arizona or Florida.

RESPONSIBILITIES

  • Develop player evaluation and report writing skills, following club procedures and guidelines.
  • Attend and participate in regular feedback sessions with scouting leadership.
  • Complete research and ongoing projects as assigned.
  • Collect targeted video and other data as required.
  • Travel to venues both domestic & international.

CHARACTERISTICS/QUALIFICATIONS

  • Proficiency with modern database or statistical tools, such as SQL, R, or Python is preferred.
  • Proficiency in Microsoft Office.
  • Experience with various video applications like TruMedia, BATS, Synergy, etc. is preferred.
  • Experience in a baseball operation or experience conducting past baseball research is preferred.
  • Ability to work evening, weekend, and possibly holiday hours (within confines of hours/week guidelines).
  • Ability to travel.
  • Strong communication & time management skills.
  • Preferred: willingness to relocate to Arizona or Florida.

At the Boston Red Sox and Fenway Sports Management, we go beyond embracing diversity. We’re committed to living by our values, strengthening our community, and creating a workplace where people genuinely feel like they belong.

Too often, job seekers don’t apply to positions because they don’t meet every qualification. If you love this role and are great at what you do, we encourage you to apply. Your unique skills and experiences might just be what we’ve been looking for.

Prospective employees will receive consideration without discrimination based on race, religious creed, color, sex, age, national origin, handicap, disability, military/veteran status, ancestry, sexual orientation, gender identity/expression or protected genetic information.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Boston Red Sox.


JAWS and the 2024 Hall of Fame Ballot: Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez

Alex Rodriguez
Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2024 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

In my previous multi-candidate roundup, I paired two lefties who haven’t gotten much traction on Hall of Fame ballots thus far in Andy Pettitte and Mark Buehrle. As a means of completing my coverage of the major candidates before the December 31 voting deadline, it made sense to group them into a single overview and invite readers wishing to (re)familiarize themselves with the specifics of their cases to check out last year’s profiles. Today, I’m doing the same for a pair of elite hitters who would already be enshrined if not for their links to performance-enhancing drugs: Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez.

Like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, both sluggers have transgressions that predate the introduction of drug testing and penalties in 2004. Via The New York Times (Ramirez) and Sports Illustrated (Rodriguez), both reportedly failed the supposedly anonymous 2003 survey test that determined whether such testing would be introduced. Had they not pressed their luck further, both might already be in Cooperstown alongside 2022 honoree David Ortiz, who reportedly failed the survey test, too. Alas, Ramirez was actually suspended twice, in 2009 and ’11; the latter ended his major league career, though he traveled the globe making comeback attempts. Rodriguez was suspended only once, but it was for the entire 2014 season due to his involvement in the Biogenesis scandal and his scorched-earth attempt to evade punishment.

Ramirez debuted with 23.8% on the 2017 ballot and only last year topped 30%. Rodriguez debuted with 34.3% in 2022 but barely inched up in ’23. Given that Bonds and Clemens topped out in the 65–66% range in 2022 and then were passed over by the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee the following year, nobody should be holding their breaths for these two to get elected anytime soon. Read the rest of this entry »


Red Sox Trade Two Pitchers to St. Louis, Acquire Brawny Canadian

Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

Last week, Marco Gonzales got traded twice in three days: First from Seattle to Atlanta in the Jarred Kelenic deal, then up the Denny Neagle Highway to Pittsburgh. No one has ever been more traded. You want to know how traded Gonzales is? The only other player he’s ever been traded for, Tyler O’Neill, just got traded too.

The St. Louis Cardinals, sitting on a surfeit of corner outfield types, have sent O’Neill to Boston for pitchers Nick Robertson and Victor Santos. This is not as exciting a trade as it would’ve been two years ago, when O’Neill was coming off a 5.5 WAR season, but it allows the Cardinals to turn a player they probably weren’t going to use into pitching depth. The Red Sox gain some temporary goodwill from the small subset of locals who’ll scan a headline and think that former Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill has returned from the dead. Moreover, they’ve added some right-handed power to a pool of outfielders that could use some. Read the rest of this entry »


Yankees Acquire Juan Soto at Home

Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports

The Yankees have been pursuing a left-handed corner outfielder all winter. They’ve telegraphed their willingness to trade, and trade multiple pitchers at that, to get their target. Last night, they did what they set out to do – at least, as long as you’re willing to take my words exactly literally. Sure, he’s not Juan Soto, but Alex Verdugo is now a Yankee, after the team traded Richard Fitts, Greg Weissert, and Nicholas Judice to the Red Sox.

For Yankees fans who have been following the sound and fury around a Soto trade in the last week, acquiring Verdugo almost feels like a joke played by Brian Cashman. “Oh, you wanted to improve our offense and get us some more left-handed hitting? Here you go! I did exactly what you asked for!” It’s not so different than your parents telling you that you don’t need to buy Lucky Charms at the grocery store because you have some at home, only to see a box of Generically Fortunate Oat-Shapes in the pantry when you run inside to check. Read the rest of this entry »


Still Evolving as a Hitter, Boston’s Blaze Jordan Is Bashing Baseballs

Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Blaze Jordan quietly put together one of the best seasons in the Red Sox minor league system this year. Overshadowed by higher profile prospects such as Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, and Ceddanne Rafaela, the 20-year-old corner infielder slashed .296/.351/.481 with a 124 wRC+ and 18 home runs between High-A Greenville and Double-A Portland. Moreover, his 141 hits and 32 doubles were both tops among Boston farmhands. That he fanned in just 14.3% of his 525 plate appearances is also notable, although that does come with a caveat: His 7.6% walk rate was less than ideal.

Jordan’s profile coming into pro ball was that of a slugger. As our lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen wrote after the Red Sox selected him in the third round of the 2020 draft out of Southaven, Mississippi’s DeSoto Central High School, “Jordan had some of the best power in the class.” That would be an understatement. The now 6-foot-2, 210-pound right-handed hitter won the High School Home Run Derby in Cleveland at the 2019 All-Star Game, and he was reportedly called “a young Bob Horner” by a scout who had seen him punish baseballs in a prep tournament.

That Jordan’s power output in pro ball — 36 dingers in 1,160 PAs — has been comparatively modest is at once concerning and a sign of age-appropriate developmental goals. Just shy of the legal drinking age, he doesn’t aspire to be an all-or-nothing basher. Read the rest of this entry »


2024 ZiPS Projections: Boston Red Sox

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Boston Red Sox.

Batters

As last-place teams go, the 2023 Red Sox were a pretty good one. Nobody puts a 78–84 season on their sizzle reel, but they played adequate baseball for most of the season, enough that they hovered two to four games out of a wild card spot for a large chunk of the summer. An 8–19 September suffocated those chances, but Boston still managed to have an 81–81 Pythag record. If the Red Sox played in a Central division, they would have been competitive for even longer. But Boston’s coastline is on the Atlantic Ocean, not a Great Lake, so this is where they compete.

The offense highlights the awkward situation the Sox are in. They may be happy with the value they got for a year of Mookie Betts, but he offers something that the Red Sox don’t have: someone who can go out of their minds for a year and put an 8–9-WAR season on the leaderboard. Rafael Devers is very good, and one of the premier power-hitting third basemen of this generation; ZiPS gives him a final median home run total among his active compatriots at the hot corner (442) that’s behind only Manny Machado. But he’s not a multi-dimensional all-around monster. Nor is Trevor Story going to fill that role, even if he has as juicy a comeback season as ZiPS thinks he will. Triston Casas should be good as well, but the rest of the roster is just “there.” To upgrade on this group, you need to find 3–4-WAR players, and those don’t come cheap. Boston would be better off with a few more sixes and zeroes on the depth chart.

On the plus side, some of the reinforcements may help, with ZiPS finding a lot of interesting possibilities in Boston’s top prospects. Ceddanne Rafaela didn’t hit in his brief debut, but my Total Zone-esque coordinate measurement system had him as the second-best center fielder in the minors, behind only Jorge Barrosa. ZiPS also already has Marcelo Mayer at the two wins-per-600 PA threshold in 2025 and is certainly more into Kyle Teel than Steamer is. But like the main offense, there just isn’t that phenom guy, though Mayer could take a big step up if his shoulder doesn’t give him too much more trouble. This isn’t a great offseason to make big offensive additions via free agency, and given how the Red Sox have been run in recent years, I can’t imagine they’ll go into any rentals.

Pitchers

The story here is similar. The Sox aren’t bad anywhere, but there just isn’t a tremendous amount of upside either. Expecting Chris Sale to channel the old Chris Sale for 160 innings is a big ask, and Brayan Bello looks more like a good number two than an ace for the franchise that had Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez. With Steamer, we have the Red Sox rotation as the middle of the pack, and I don’t think anything ZiPS is saying here will change that. On the good side, there are quite a few above-replacement Plan Bs, Cs, and Ds for the rotation — necessary given the injury history of several of the starters — but nobody with amazingly high potential. And maybe someone like Wikelman Gonzalez will change that, but it’s a little too soon for projections to see that as a median outcome. This is one place I can see the team spending some money this winter.

When Steamer came out, I was a little surprised to see the Red Sox projected as a top-10 bullpen, but ZiPS actually agrees with that. I suspect Garrett Whitlock is likely to stay in the bullpen from here on out — this has not been confirmed as far as I’ve seen one way or the other — and as a full-time reliever, ZiPS sees him with an ERA in the low threes. Chris Martin joined the team in a whisper on a two-year contract last offseason and served as one of the team’s indispensable parachutes, with an ERA just over one. Clocks are a concern given his age, and there’s a clear warning sign in the strikeout rate decline, but he should still put hitters in their place for another season. As veteran relievers go, ZiPS isn’t as confident about Kenley Jansen given his age and some erosion in his peripheral metrics, and I’d like to see the Red Sox slowly transition their closer job to Whitlock if they keep him in relief. The bottom of the ‘pen isn’t exciting, but it’ll get the job done.

The Red Sox look like an 80–86 win team or so. That kind of team can surprise, and with the coins flipping a bit different last year, they could have made a real wild card run. The Orioles, Blue Jays, and Rays are a clear tier above them, though, and when all is said and done by winter’s end, I think the Yankees may be as well. But that last question is a tale for another ZiPS entry.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Rafael Devers L 27 3B 655 586 95 164 38 1 33 107 58 126 4 2
Alex Verdugo L 28 RF 591 536 83 157 36 3 14 65 46 88 4 2
Trevor Story R 31 SS 411 370 54 91 23 2 15 54 33 117 15 3
Justin Turner R 39 1B 514 454 67 128 26 0 15 65 46 90 3 1
Ceddanne Rafaela R 23 CF 557 521 76 136 29 6 15 76 23 133 20 8
Masataka Yoshida L 30 LF 553 501 67 148 29 2 16 74 43 68 5 1
Triston Casas L 24 1B 502 428 67 113 22 2 22 71 69 119 1 1
David Hamilton L 26 SS 496 443 62 104 17 6 9 52 47 121 35 9
Wilyer Abreu L 25 LF 474 414 63 102 20 1 15 60 55 127 9 4
Kyle Teel L 22 C 456 410 51 107 21 1 6 51 42 100 6 2
Jarren Duran L 27 CF 453 415 60 106 25 6 11 54 31 114 21 3
Enmanuel Valdez L 25 2B 457 411 57 104 23 2 16 60 40 109 6 3
Adam Duvall R 35 CF 389 355 48 85 20 2 21 61 26 119 3 1
Nick Sogard B 26 3B 444 394 55 101 19 3 5 43 42 85 10 4
Bobby Dalbec R 29 3B 486 433 57 97 15 3 22 69 42 177 7 1
Eddy Alvarez L 34 2B 264 224 36 57 12 2 6 34 24 69 8 2
Ronaldo Hernández R 26 C 403 372 41 94 22 1 12 55 21 82 1 1
Chase Meidroth R 22 3B 489 422 63 102 17 1 7 53 53 106 7 1
Rob Refsnyder R 33 LF 294 252 38 67 15 1 6 35 33 68 4 1
Roman Anthony L 20 CF 490 431 56 99 23 3 9 53 53 132 7 4
Connor Wong R 28 C 373 346 46 86 21 2 11 43 20 114 6 2
Ryan Fitzgerald L 30 3B 411 372 42 86 23 5 9 48 31 114 5 4
Marcelo Mayer L 21 SS 393 357 43 85 22 2 11 46 31 110 6 3
Reese McGuire L 29 C 250 230 22 61 15 1 2 21 13 56 1 1
Niko Goodrum 구드럼 B 32 1B 321 276 40 65 13 2 7 34 42 90 8 3
Nick Yorke R 22 2B 500 459 59 107 19 4 9 53 34 133 9 4
Mark Contreras L 29 CF 417 380 50 88 21 3 10 53 28 128 13 4
Christian Arroyo R 29 2B 287 266 33 68 17 0 6 32 14 58 2 2
Pablo Reyes R 30 2B 352 319 48 84 19 1 7 39 28 62 8 4
Marcus Wilson R 27 LF 365 320 44 67 16 3 10 43 40 143 10 2
Elih Marrero B 27 C 213 190 22 43 10 1 1 17 21 57 6 4
Yu Chang R 28 SS 256 236 29 56 12 2 7 35 15 70 4 1
Christian Koss R 26 SS 417 390 46 94 16 4 7 46 17 108 9 3
Stephen Scott L 27 C 391 346 47 79 19 1 10 44 41 91 3 1
Niko Kavadas L 25 1B 481 402 49 81 18 0 17 60 68 183 1 1
Corey Rosier L 24 RF 445 402 61 99 18 6 5 49 33 104 25 5
Brainer Bonaci B 21 SS 417 379 47 92 17 2 7 42 34 102 6 3
Max Ferguson L 24 2B 422 370 52 76 15 5 4 34 45 131 16 2
Narciso Crook R 28 LF 362 323 39 69 16 2 9 48 29 128 7 3
Eddinson Paulino L 21 SS 535 490 66 116 30 4 10 59 37 133 13 4
Alex Binelas L 24 1B 378 346 46 74 18 1 13 46 28 137 6 1
Alex Erro B 26 C 301 278 34 67 11 1 3 26 20 64 3 2
Bradley Zimmer L 31 CF 338 294 40 56 9 1 6 33 28 136 13 5
Phillip Sikes R 25 CF 445 401 54 87 22 3 7 48 32 150 18 4
Eduardo Lopez B 22 RF 333 301 37 67 13 1 4 29 27 97 6 2
Matthew Lugo R 23 3B 434 405 48 93 20 3 6 45 20 117 7 4
Tyler McDonough B 25 LF 413 380 45 84 15 5 5 38 27 130 12 4
Caleb Hamilton R 29 C 249 220 22 42 9 1 6 24 27 90 1 1
Nathan Hickey L 24 C 396 350 45 81 20 1 13 50 39 118 1 1
Tyler Dearden L 25 LF 356 318 38 74 14 1 8 39 31 103 0 1
Edwin Díaz R 28 2B 267 245 23 45 10 2 8 29 18 110 1 1
Bryan Gonzalez R 18 2B 119 111 10 23 3 0 1 8 7 39 2 1
Blaze Jordan R 21 1B 549 512 55 135 29 1 12 65 30 99 1 1
Tyler Esplin L 24 1B 222 207 23 44 11 2 1 17 14 65 1 1
Nick Decker L 24 LF 280 251 33 47 13 2 5 29 23 111 4 2
Tyler Miller L 24 1B 399 373 44 86 15 3 8 43 19 120 9 3

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA RC
Rafael Devers 655 .280 .351 .517 131 .237 .307 -6 3.6 .366 108
Alex Verdugo 591 .293 .350 .450 115 .157 .329 3 2.2 .344 86
Trevor Story 411 .246 .314 .441 102 .195 .319 5 2.2 .323 55
Justin Turner 514 .282 .356 .438 114 .156 .324 4 2.0 .346 72
Ceddanne Rafaela 557 .261 .300 .426 94 .165 .324 7 1.9 .312 74
Masataka Yoshida 553 .295 .356 .457 119 .162 .317 -2 1.9 .349 83
Triston Casas 502 .264 .367 .479 127 .215 .317 -4 1.9 .364 76
David Hamilton 496 .235 .312 .361 82 .126 .304 4 1.6 .298 61
Wilyer Abreu 474 .246 .338 .408 101 .162 .320 7 1.5 .327 61
Kyle Teel 456 .261 .336 .361 89 .100 .332 1 1.5 .309 52
Jarren Duran 453 .255 .313 .424 98 .169 .328 0 1.5 .318 61
Enmanuel Valdez 457 .253 .322 .436 103 .182 .308 -2 1.4 .326 60
Adam Duvall 389 .239 .298 .485 107 .245 .298 -2 1.3 .330 52
Nick Sogard 444 .256 .332 .358 88 .102 .316 4 1.1 .306 50
Bobby Dalbec 486 .224 .305 .425 95 .201 .321 -3 1.0 .316 58
Eddy Alvarez 264 .254 .347 .406 104 .152 .342 -1 1.0 .332 34
Ronaldo Hernández 403 .253 .303 .414 92 .161 .295 -2 1.0 .310 47
Chase Meidroth 489 .242 .342 .336 86 .095 .307 0 1.0 .307 50
Rob Refsnyder 294 .266 .358 .405 107 .139 .343 1 0.9 .336 38
Roman Anthony 490 .230 .316 .360 83 .130 .310 3 0.9 .300 52
Connor Wong 373 .249 .296 .416 91 .168 .339 -3 0.8 .307 45
Ryan Fitzgerald 411 .231 .297 .392 85 .161 .309 4 0.8 .298 46
Marcelo Mayer 393 .238 .300 .403 89 .165 .314 -2 0.7 .304 46
Reese McGuire 250 .265 .308 .365 82 .100 .343 3 0.7 .294 26
Niko Goodrum 321 .236 .336 .373 93 .138 .324 5 0.7 .314 38
Nick Yorke 500 .233 .292 .351 74 .118 .309 7 0.6 .282 51
Mark Contreras 417 .232 .295 .382 82 .150 .322 1 0.5 .294 47
Christian Arroyo 287 .256 .301 .387 85 .132 .307 2 0.5 .298 32
Pablo Reyes 352 .263 .325 .395 94 .132 .308 -4 0.5 .314 44
Marcus Wilson 365 .209 .301 .372 82 .163 .341 6 0.5 .297 39
Elih Marrero 213 .226 .305 .305 67 .079 .318 3 0.4 .276 21
Yu Chang 256 .237 .290 .394 83 .157 .308 -2 0.3 .297 28
Christian Koss 417 .241 .282 .356 72 .115 .316 1 0.3 .278 42
Stephen Scott 391 .228 .312 .376 86 .147 .282 -7 0.3 .302 42
Niko Kavadas 481 .201 .326 .373 90 .172 .317 1 0.2 .311 50
Corey Rosier 445 .246 .308 .358 80 .112 .321 2 0.1 .293 51
Brainer Bonaci 417 .243 .305 .354 78 .111 .315 -4 0.1 .290 43
Max Ferguson 422 .205 .295 .305 64 .100 .306 1 -0.1 .271 37
Narciso Crook 362 .214 .296 .359 77 .146 .323 3 -0.1 .290 37
Eddinson Paulino 535 .237 .295 .376 81 .139 .305 -10 -0.1 .293 59
Alex Binelas 378 .214 .275 .384 76 .171 .311 5 -0.2 .286 38
Alex Erro 301 .241 .292 .320 66 .079 .303 -2 -0.2 .272 27
Bradley Zimmer 338 .190 .290 .289 58 .099 .329 2 -0.3 .264 29
Phillip Sikes 445 .217 .285 .339 69 .122 .328 -3 -0.4 .276 44
Eduardo Lopez 333 .223 .288 .312 63 .090 .315 5 -0.4 .268 29
Matthew Lugo 434 .230 .273 .338 65 .109 .309 2 -0.4 .267 40
Tyler McDonough 413 .221 .277 .326 63 .105 .322 7 -0.5 .265 38
Caleb Hamilton 249 .191 .281 .323 64 .132 .290 -5 -0.5 .270 21
Nathan Hickey 396 .231 .313 .406 93 .174 .311 -19 -0.5 .313 45
Tyler Dearden 356 .233 .307 .358 80 .126 .319 -3 -0.6 .294 35
Edwin (II) Diaz 267 .184 .247 .339 57 .155 .291 0 -0.6 .256 21
Bryan Gonzalez 119 .207 .261 .261 43 .054 .310 -3 -0.7 .236 8
Blaze Jordan 549 .264 .308 .395 89 .131 .307 -6 -0.8 .304 63
Tyler Esplin 222 .213 .266 .300 53 .087 .305 2 -0.9 .251 17
Nick Decker 280 .187 .268 .315 58 .127 .311 0 -1.0 .260 23
Tyler Miller 399 .231 .273 .351 68 .121 .318 0 -1.1 .272 39

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Rafael Devers Kyle Seager Willie Jones Richie Hebner
Alex Verdugo Norm Larker Lloyd Waner Whitey Lockman
Trevor Story Pat Kelly Juan Samuel Niko Goodrum
Justin Turner Paul Konerko Pedro Guerrero Charlie Grimm
Ceddanne Rafaela Ivan Calderon Corey Patterson Glenn Burke
Masataka Yoshida Manny Jimenez Rip Radcliff Melky Cabrera
Triston Casas Boog Powell Craig Kusick Mike Epstein
David Hamilton Andy Fox Scott Earl Ricky Gutierrez
Wilyer Abreu Andy Van Slyke Rusty Torres Johnny Lewis
Kyle Teel Jack Hiatt Al Lopez Gene Dusan
Jarren Duran Mark Little Scott Cousins Jason Repko
Enmanuel Valdez Jim Gantner James Christensen Fran Mullins
Adam Duvall Bill Renna Ray Sadler Alfonso Soriano
Nick Sogard Sergio Ferrer Larry Huff Torre Tyson
Bobby Dalbec Lee Elia Billy Myers Tom Dodd
Eddy Alvarez Chris Clapinski Shawn Gilbert Jace Peterson
Ronaldo Hernández Josh Phegley Jim Price Damon Berryhill
Chase Meidroth Bob Juday Kevin Seitzer Roger Holt
Rob Refsnyder Gene Hermanski Dave Stegman Tim Hendryx
Roman Anthony Aaron Hicks Brian Goodwin Karl Rhodes
Connor Wong John Hester Jim Command Darrell Miller
Ryan Fitzgerald Chris Basak Scott Pratt Jeff Moronko
Marcelo Mayer Ramon German Sammy Esposito Brian Burgamy
Reese McGuire Bryan Holaday John Sevcik Jacob Stallings
Niko Goodrum Jason McDonald Ryan Langerhans Joe Christopher
Nick Yorke Manny Francois Ramon Bautista Dave Orndorff
Mark Contreras Clete Thomas Colin Porter Nic Jackson
Christian Arroyo Ryan Brett Jeff Richardson Lipso Nava
Pablo Reyes Jeff Huson Jordany Valdespin Eddy Garabito
Marcus Wilson Skip Kiil Brett Jackson Willie Argo
Elih Marrero Mike Napoli Dennis Pelfrey Chris O’Dowd
Yu Chang Benji Gil Juan Silverio Ryan Mount
Christian Koss Leo Vargas Tony Beasley Charlie Benson
Stephen Scott JD Closser Adam Melhuse Greg Mahlberg
Niko Kavadas Josh Ockimey Matt Skole Ryan Noda
Corey Rosier William Ray Alejandro De Aza Tom Goodwin
Brainer Bonaci Chris Pittaro Justin Bohn Marcus Lemon
Max Ferguson R.D. Long Jason McDonald Anderson Machado
Narciso Crook Chad Hermansen Willie Argo Mike Kelly
Eddinson Paulino Ian Desmond Ehire Adrianza Osvaldo Abreu
Alex Binelas Derek Jones Todd Dunn Jake Adams
Alex Erro Phil Avlas John Wilson Johnny Hawkins
Bradley Zimmer Lorenzo Scott Chris Powell Tyrone Pendergrass
Phillip Sikes Todd Samples Juan Tolentino Tony Fisher
Eduardo Lopez Mark Simmons Tarrence Patterson Wang-Wei Lin
Matthew Lugo Jeff Eure Bobby Marshall Frank Garnett
Tyler McDonough Rashad Crawford Robbie Garvey Thomas Milone
Caleb Hamilton Buddy Pryor Rick Colbert John Stefero
Nathan Hickey Mike Martin Alex Avila Pete Varney
Tyler Dearden Jeff Baldwin Brad Downing Curt Reed
Edwin (II) Diaz Tom Epperly Bryan Britt Chris Maples
Bryan Gonzalez Lance Hudson Willis Whitehurst George Goodrich
Blaze Jordan Gerald Orlandini Carlos Rivera Fred Hopke
Tyler Esplin Brian Hertel Ryan Davis Jose Medina
Nick Decker Drew Rundle Jesus Hernandez Lute Johnson
Tyler Miller Alonzo Harris Jeremy Jackson Aaron Harvey

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Rafael Devers .305 .375 .573 150 5.1 .256 .324 .460 111 2.1
Alex Verdugo .322 .377 .503 136 3.8 .264 .323 .402 96 0.9
Trevor Story .271 .340 .493 124 3.3 .218 .289 .379 82 1.2
Justin Turner .309 .384 .488 132 3.1 .250 .324 .384 92 0.7
Ceddanne Rafaela .287 .325 .481 113 3.2 .235 .275 .377 74 0.5
Masataka Yoshida .323 .385 .508 139 3.3 .264 .326 .404 98 0.5
Triston Casas .293 .395 .541 150 3.2 .237 .338 .412 106 0.6
David Hamilton .263 .341 .411 102 2.8 .209 .289 .320 66 0.5
Wilyer Abreu .273 .363 .469 121 2.7 .219 .310 .362 84 0.5
Kyle Teel .294 .362 .407 107 2.4 .231 .300 .317 69 0.2
Jarren Duran .281 .336 .482 116 2.6 .226 .280 .374 76 0.3
Enmanuel Valdez .281 .347 .492 122 2.5 .227 .295 .390 83 0.3
Adam Duvall .266 .323 .552 130 2.4 .211 .271 .415 86 0.2
Nick Sogard .283 .360 .403 106 2.0 .232 .305 .318 71 0.1
Bobby Dalbec .251 .331 .489 116 2.3 .197 .282 .370 76 -0.1
Eddy Alvarez .284 .376 .466 125 1.7 .226 .319 .352 82 0.3
Ronaldo Hernández .289 .335 .481 117 2.3 .224 .276 .364 73 0.1
Chase Meidroth .267 .366 .379 102 1.9 .212 .315 .300 69 0.0
Rob Refsnyder .298 .392 .457 127 1.6 .234 .328 .355 86 0.2
Roman Anthony .260 .345 .416 105 2.1 .200 .289 .303 63 -0.3
Connor Wong .277 .327 .474 110 1.7 .220 .267 .358 67 -0.3
Ryan Fitzgerald .263 .331 .454 109 1.9 .204 .268 .343 66 -0.3
Marcelo Mayer .272 .337 .464 115 2.0 .213 .272 .356 70 -0.2
Reese McGuire .303 .347 .420 106 1.5 .234 .280 .318 63 0.1
Niko Goodrum .262 .365 .419 110 1.4 .207 .300 .323 71 -0.1
Nick Yorke .263 .321 .399 93 1.7 .207 .270 .308 57 -0.5
Mark Contreras .262 .324 .438 103 1.7 .204 .260 .334 60 -0.5
Christian Arroyo .286 .334 .442 105 1.2 .224 .274 .334 61 -0.3
Pablo Reyes .294 .358 .445 113 1.3 .233 .297 .344 73 -0.4
Marcus Wilson .234 .329 .428 102 1.3 .178 .271 .315 59 -0.5
Elih Marrero .256 .345 .344 88 0.9 .192 .275 .257 46 -0.2
Yu Chang .271 .318 .453 106 1.1 .212 .264 .341 64 -0.3
Christian Koss .271 .308 .409 92 1.3 .214 .252 .307 53 -0.7
Stephen Scott .261 .342 .433 108 1.4 .201 .278 .322 66 -0.7
Niko Kavadas .232 .355 .429 108 1.2 .169 .293 .317 65 -1.2
Corey Rosier .273 .331 .409 97 1.0 .222 .281 .321 64 -0.8
Brainer Bonaci .269 .331 .407 97 1.0 .216 .280 .307 59 -0.8
Max Ferguson .237 .326 .352 84 0.9 .176 .268 .263 44 -1.1
Narciso Crook .243 .324 .416 97 0.8 .186 .267 .313 57 -0.9
Eddinson Paulino .269 .327 .432 102 1.3 .210 .268 .332 64 -1.2
Alex Binelas .246 .304 .428 96 0.7 .186 .246 .323 56 -1.2
Alex Erro .274 .329 .365 88 0.7 .206 .261 .280 48 -0.9
Bradley Zimmer .224 .322 .347 82 0.6 .161 .258 .245 39 -1.2
Phillip Sikes .244 .309 .386 88 0.6 .187 .258 .298 52 -1.4
Eduardo Lopez .253 .318 .357 84 0.4 .195 .263 .268 47 -1.1
Matthew Lugo .253 .298 .379 81 0.4 .201 .246 .292 46 -1.5
Tyler McDonough .253 .308 .371 82 0.6 .195 .253 .280 46 -1.3
Caleb Hamilton .226 .317 .387 87 0.2 .163 .247 .272 43 -1.1
Nathan Hickey .262 .343 .465 116 0.5 .197 .280 .351 69 -1.6
Tyler Dearden .258 .332 .407 98 0.2 .204 .278 .310 62 -1.4
Edwin (II) Diaz .216 .277 .417 83 0.2 .154 .217 .288 37 -1.3
Bryan Gonzalez .246 .298 .305 66 -0.4 .175 .234 .227 27 -0.9
Blaze Jordan .290 .337 .448 108 0.5 .233 .278 .344 68 -2.2
Tyler Esplin .244 .299 .343 74 -0.3 .182 .236 .249 35 -1.4
Nick Decker .216 .299 .365 78 -0.3 .156 .240 .261 36 -1.7
Tyler Miller .263 .301 .404 87 -0.2 .207 .248 .305 49 -2.0

Batters – Projected Splits
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R
Rafael Devers .269 .338 .463 .285 .357 .540
Alex Verdugo .277 .335 .406 .299 .356 .467
Trevor Story .256 .328 .470 .241 .307 .427
Justin Turner .276 .353 .434 .285 .358 .440
Ceddanne Rafaela .260 .299 .433 .262 .301 .422
Masataka Yoshida .279 .344 .434 .301 .361 .466
Triston Casas .250 .352 .441 .271 .373 .497
David Hamilton .228 .303 .349 .238 .316 .367
Wilyer Abreu .233 .319 .377 .254 .347 .425
Kyle Teel .252 .323 .348 .264 .340 .366
Jarren Duran .246 .309 .397 .260 .315 .436
Enmanuel Valdez .245 .310 .406 .258 .329 .453
Adam Duvall .245 .306 .491 .237 .295 .482
Nick Sogard .262 .343 .362 .253 .325 .355
Bobby Dalbec .236 .319 .435 .217 .296 .419
Eddy Alvarez .243 .341 .400 .260 .350 .409
Ronaldo Hernández .261 .310 .429 .246 .297 .403
Chase Meidroth .252 .357 .348 .236 .332 .330
Rob Refsnyder .274 .381 .427 .259 .338 .385
Roman Anthony .216 .302 .333 .234 .321 .369
Connor Wong .248 .301 .428 .249 .293 .408
Ryan Fitzgerald .221 .290 .371 .237 .301 .405
Marcelo Mayer .238 .302 .400 .238 .300 .405
Reese McGuire .246 .295 .298 .272 .312 .387
Niko Goodrum .259 .360 .400 .225 .326 .361
Nick Yorke .235 .295 .350 .232 .290 .351
Mark Contreras .219 .286 .342 .239 .301 .406
Christian Arroyo .260 .304 .385 .253 .299 .389
Pablo Reyes .275 .342 .437 .254 .311 .362
Marcus Wilson .219 .320 .393 .197 .277 .345
Elih Marrero .221 .302 .273 .230 .307 .327
Yu Chang .242 .299 .404 .234 .284 .387
Christian Koss .243 .286 .358 .240 .278 .355
Stephen Scott .227 .306 .364 .229 .315 .381
Niko Kavadas .192 .315 .358 .206 .331 .379
Corey Rosier .232 .297 .328 .253 .313 .372
Brainer Bonaci .241 .305 .365 .244 .305 .347
Max Ferguson .198 .285 .289 .209 .300 .313
Narciso Crook .217 .304 .362 .211 .288 .357
Eddinson Paulino .225 .284 .359 .241 .300 .382
Alex Binelas .206 .268 .343 .217 .278 .402
Alex Erro .235 .283 .306 .244 .297 .328
Bradley Zimmer .190 .293 .253 .191 .289 .302
Phillip Sikes .226 .301 .368 .211 .276 .321
Eduardo Lopez .216 .283 .284 .226 .291 .327
Matthew Lugo .234 .278 .360 .226 .268 .322
Tyler McDonough .217 .278 .326 .223 .276 .326
Caleb Hamilton .198 .298 .349 .184 .266 .298
Nathan Hickey .222 .297 .364 .235 .319 .422
Tyler Dearden .223 .302 .320 .237 .310 .377
Edwin (II) Diaz .179 .250 .321 .187 .245 .353
Bryan Gonzalez .217 .265 .239 .200 .257 .277
Blaze Jordan .276 .325 .398 .256 .297 .392
Tyler Esplin .209 .264 .284 .214 .267 .307
Nick Decker .173 .262 .280 .193 .270 .330
Tyler Miller .217 .263 .330 .236 .277 .360

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Brayan Bello R 25 11 11 4.28 28 27 147.3 154 70 16 54 134
Garrett Whitlock R 28 6 4 3.73 30 12 89.3 86 37 11 19 94
Nick Pivetta R 31 8 9 4.55 32 20 132.7 123 67 21 49 138
Chris Sale L 35 5 5 4.30 18 18 90.0 85 43 13 29 106
Kutter Crawford R 28 6 6 4.49 26 19 106.3 104 53 15 33 103
Josh Winckowski R 26 6 5 4.36 43 12 99.0 102 48 12 33 90
Isaac Coffey R 24 8 8 4.61 22 21 109.3 112 56 16 33 94
Tanner Houck R 28 7 7 4.62 25 21 103.3 100 53 14 39 107
James Paxton L 35 7 9 4.78 23 22 107.3 113 57 17 45 112
Brian Van Belle R 27 6 9 4.94 24 22 118.3 136 65 18 33 82
Victor Santos R 23 6 7 4.93 22 18 107.7 117 59 14 33 75
Brandon Walter L 27 4 4 4.72 27 16 103.0 111 54 13 32 82
Hunter Dobbins R 24 6 7 4.79 20 19 97.7 108 52 13 31 73
Grant Gambrell R 26 6 7 5.12 20 20 103.7 115 59 16 39 77
Wikelman Gonzalez R 22 6 7 5.16 25 25 104.7 100 60 14 66 107
Shane Drohan L 25 6 9 5.20 24 23 107.3 116 62 15 55 88
Chris Murphy L 26 5 5 5.04 29 14 103.7 108 58 14 49 88
Angel Bastardo R 22 4 5 5.19 23 23 102.3 109 59 15 53 85
Yusniel Padron-Artiles R 26 4 6 5.16 19 14 82.0 94 47 13 26 62
Justin Hagenman R 27 3 4 4.57 38 4 69.0 73 35 9 21 61
Corey Kluber R 38 5 7 5.26 21 17 87.3 100 51 14 26 75
Chih-Jung Liu R 25 5 8 5.31 23 21 95.0 102 56 15 47 81
John Schreiber R 30 3 2 4.24 52 2 57.3 54 27 7 23 61
Matt Dermody L 33 3 3 4.92 13 10 56.7 64 31 8 16 42
Chris Martin R 38 3 2 3.95 49 0 43.3 48 19 6 8 40
Kenley Jansen R 36 4 3 4.17 49 0 45.3 41 21 7 17 52
Nick Robertson R 25 3 2 4.21 45 1 51.3 50 24 6 18 54
Mauricio Llovera R 28 1 2 4.58 26 4 37.3 36 19 5 13 38
Isaiah Campbell R 26 5 4 4.21 44 1 47.0 46 22 6 18 45
Brennan Bernardino L 32 1 2 4.57 47 5 45.3 45 23 6 19 46
Jacob Webb R 30 3 3 4.30 59 1 60.7 54 29 8 24 67
Rio Gomez L 29 2 4 5.34 25 10 64.0 69 38 10 32 57
Ryan Fernandez R 26 4 4 4.32 37 0 50.0 52 24 7 16 46
Chase Shugart R 27 3 5 5.26 33 8 63.3 74 37 9 23 42
Sterling Sharp R 29 3 5 5.64 19 16 75.0 90 47 11 36 45
Bryan Mata R 25 3 5 5.60 18 15 62.7 64 39 9 40 57
Frank German R 26 2 4 5.29 28 7 51.0 52 30 7 26 48
Alex Hoppe R 25 3 4 4.60 42 0 47.0 50 24 6 17 40
Taylor Broadway R 27 2 2 4.81 32 1 43.0 46 23 6 16 35
Norwith Gudiño R 28 3 5 5.53 24 7 53.7 61 33 8 27 38
Joely Rodríguez L 32 1 2 4.73 36 0 32.3 35 17 4 14 34
Andrew Politi R 28 4 6 5.06 43 3 58.7 61 33 8 27 52
Brendan Nail L 28 2 4 5.32 33 3 45.7 48 27 6 22 39
Zack Kelly R 29 3 3 5.18 34 2 41.7 41 24 6 24 42
Oddanier Mosqueda L 25 3 4 5.14 44 2 56.0 55 32 8 30 55
Zack Weiss R 32 2 2 5.10 36 0 42.3 42 24 6 23 47
Ryan Miller R 28 3 4 5.14 34 1 49.0 54 28 7 19 40
Dinelson Lamet R 31 2 2 5.54 22 4 37.3 37 23 6 20 43
Teddy Stankiewicz R 30 3 5 6.04 17 14 70.0 86 47 11 34 37
Joe Jacques L 29 2 4 5.26 46 2 53.0 58 31 7 21 42
Ryan Zeferjahn R 26 2 4 5.66 30 5 47.7 49 30 7 30 45
Christopher Troye R 25 1 1 5.15 36 0 43.7 39 25 6 33 53
Cam Booser L 32 2 4 5.16 39 0 45.3 48 26 7 24 41
Andrés Núñez R 28 3 4 5.37 41 1 52.0 56 31 7 23 41
Kyle Barraclough R 34 3 5 5.87 21 7 53.7 57 35 9 35 45
Jake Faria R 30 2 2 6.08 20 8 53.3 62 36 9 31 42
Robert Kwiatkowski R 27 1 2 5.51 31 2 50.7 61 31 8 19 27
Justin Garza R 30 2 3 5.76 37 3 50.0 53 32 8 29 45
Theo Denlinger R 27 2 4 5.49 34 0 41.0 43 25 6 25 38
Dylan Spacke R 26 1 3 5.90 29 2 50.3 58 33 7 27 34
Brendan Cellucci L 26 1 3 5.94 36 2 47.0 50 31 7 35 44
Wyatt Olds R 24 3 7 6.33 25 15 69.7 73 49 10 48 58
Skylar Arias L 27 1 2 6.59 21 1 27.3 26 20 4 23 30
Cody Scroggins R 27 1 2 6.27 27 0 33.0 37 23 5 21 24
Jorge Benitez L 25 2 4 5.94 37 0 50.0 52 33 8 36 48

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Brayan Bello 147.3 8.2 3.3 1.0 8.4% 20.8% .317 104 4.03 96 2.2
Garrett Whitlock 89.3 9.5 1.9 1.1 5.1% 25.4% .309 119 3.49 84 1.9
Nick Pivetta 132.7 9.4 3.3 1.4 8.6% 24.3% .289 98 4.45 103 1.7
Chris Sale 90.0 10.6 2.9 1.3 7.7% 28.0% .313 103 3.98 97 1.4
Kutter Crawford 106.3 8.7 2.8 1.3 7.3% 22.8% .299 99 4.20 101 1.4
Josh Winckowski 99.0 8.2 3.0 1.1 7.7% 21.1% .310 102 4.10 98 1.4
Isaac Coffey 109.3 7.7 2.7 1.3 7.0% 20.0% .298 96 4.59 104 1.3
Tanner Houck 103.3 9.3 3.4 1.2 8.8% 24.0% .305 96 4.34 104 1.3
James Paxton 107.3 9.4 3.8 1.4 9.4% 23.4% .321 93 4.54 108 1.1
Brian Van Belle 118.3 6.2 2.5 1.4 6.3% 15.7% .309 90 4.78 112 1.1
Victor Santos 107.7 6.3 2.8 1.2 7.1% 16.1% .300 90 4.61 111 1.1
Brandon Walter 103.0 7.2 2.8 1.1 7.1% 18.3% .309 94 4.44 106 1.0
Hunter Dobbins 97.7 6.7 2.9 1.2 7.2% 17.0% .308 92 4.60 108 1.0
Grant Gambrell 103.7 6.7 3.4 1.4 8.5% 16.7% .305 87 5.05 116 0.8
Wikelman Gonzalez 104.7 9.2 5.7 1.2 13.6% 22.1% .301 86 4.96 116 0.8
Shane Drohan 107.3 7.4 4.6 1.3 11.2% 17.9% .309 85 5.08 117 0.8
Chris Murphy 103.7 7.6 4.3 1.2 10.6% 19.0% .304 88 4.90 114 0.7
Angel Bastardo 102.3 7.5 4.7 1.3 11.2% 17.9% .305 85 5.14 117 0.7
Yusniel Padron-Artiles 82.0 6.8 2.9 1.4 7.2% 17.2% .313 86 4.86 116 0.6
Justin Hagenman 69.0 8.0 2.7 1.2 7.0% 20.5% .312 97 4.18 103 0.6
Corey Kluber 87.3 7.7 2.7 1.4 6.8% 19.5% .322 84 4.76 119 0.5
Chih-Jung Liu 95.0 7.7 4.5 1.4 10.8% 18.6% .306 84 5.24 120 0.5
John Schreiber 57.3 9.6 3.6 1.1 9.3% 24.7% .305 105 4.07 96 0.5
Matt Dermody 56.7 6.7 2.5 1.3 6.5% 17.0% .311 90 4.72 111 0.5
Chris Martin 43.3 8.3 1.7 1.2 4.3% 21.6% .326 112 3.83 89 0.5
Kenley Jansen 45.3 10.3 3.4 1.4 8.8% 26.9% .296 106 4.23 94 0.5
Nick Robertson 51.3 9.5 3.2 1.1 8.1% 24.2% .312 105 3.84 95 0.4
Mauricio Llovera 37.3 9.2 3.1 1.2 8.1% 23.8% .304 97 4.25 103 0.4
Isaiah Campbell 47.0 8.6 3.4 1.1 8.7% 21.8% .301 105 4.28 95 0.4
Brennan Bernardino 45.3 9.1 3.8 1.2 9.5% 23.1% .310 97 4.53 103 0.3
Jacob Webb 60.7 9.9 3.6 1.2 9.3% 25.9% .293 95 4.10 105 0.2
Rio Gomez 64.0 8.0 4.5 1.4 11.0% 19.5% .312 83 5.19 121 0.3
Ryan Fernandez 50.0 8.3 2.9 1.3 7.4% 21.4% .310 103 4.26 97 0.3
Chase Shugart 63.3 6.0 3.3 1.3 8.0% 14.7% .313 84 5.01 119 0.2
Sterling Sharp 75.0 5.4 4.3 1.3 10.3% 12.9% .312 79 5.56 127 0.2
Bryan Mata 62.7 8.2 5.7 1.3 13.7% 19.5% .302 79 5.51 126 0.2
Frank German 51.0 8.5 4.6 1.2 11.2% 20.6% .308 84 4.86 119 0.2
Alex Hoppe 47.0 7.7 3.3 1.1 8.2% 19.2% .310 96 4.36 104 0.1
Taylor Broadway 43.0 7.3 3.3 1.3 8.2% 17.9% .305 92 4.56 109 0.1
Norwith Gudiño 53.7 6.4 4.5 1.3 10.8% 15.3% .308 80 5.40 125 0.1
Joely Rodríguez 32.3 9.5 3.9 1.1 9.7% 23.4% .337 94 4.06 107 0.1
Andrew Politi 58.7 8.0 4.1 1.2 10.2% 19.7% .306 88 4.84 114 0.1
Brendan Nail 45.7 7.7 4.3 1.2 10.7% 18.9% .307 83 4.96 120 0.0
Zack Kelly 41.7 9.1 5.2 1.3 12.6% 22.0% .304 85 5.13 117 0.0
Oddanier Mosqueda 56.0 8.8 4.8 1.3 12.0% 21.9% .301 86 5.13 116 0.0
Zack Weiss 42.3 10.0 4.9 1.3 12.0% 24.5% .319 87 4.65 115 0.0
Ryan Miller 49.0 7.3 3.5 1.3 8.7% 18.3% .313 86 4.89 116 0.0
Dinelson Lamet 37.3 10.4 4.8 1.4 11.7% 25.1% .316 80 4.81 125 -0.1
Teddy Stankiewicz 70.0 4.8 4.4 1.4 10.4% 11.3% .310 73 5.83 136 -0.1
Joe Jacques 53.0 7.1 3.6 1.2 8.9% 17.8% .311 84 5.03 119 -0.1
Ryan Zeferjahn 47.7 8.5 5.7 1.3 13.4% 20.1% .307 78 5.48 128 -0.1
Christopher Troye 43.7 10.9 6.8 1.2 15.9% 25.6% .306 86 5.02 116 -0.1
Cam Booser 45.3 8.1 4.8 1.4 11.4% 19.5% .308 86 5.11 116 -0.1
Andrés Núñez 52.0 7.1 4.0 1.2 9.8% 17.5% .306 83 5.16 121 -0.1
Kyle Barraclough 53.7 7.5 5.9 1.5 13.8% 17.7% .300 76 5.94 132 -0.1
Jake Faria 53.3 7.1 5.2 1.5 12.2% 16.5% .317 73 5.84 137 -0.1
Robert Kwiatkowski 50.7 4.8 3.4 1.4 8.2% 11.6% .305 80 5.54 124 -0.2
Justin Garza 50.0 8.1 5.2 1.4 12.6% 19.6% .308 77 5.46 130 -0.2
Theo Denlinger 41.0 8.3 5.5 1.3 13.0% 19.8% .311 81 5.35 124 -0.2
Dylan Spacke 50.3 6.1 4.8 1.3 11.5% 14.5% .311 75 5.62 133 -0.3
Brendan Cellucci 47.0 8.4 6.7 1.3 15.2% 19.1% .314 75 5.74 134 -0.3
Wyatt Olds 69.7 7.5 6.2 1.3 14.3% 17.3% .301 70 6.21 143 -0.4
Skylar Arias 27.3 9.9 7.6 1.3 17.3% 22.6% .306 67 6.26 149 -0.4
Cody Scroggins 33.0 6.5 5.7 1.4 13.4% 15.3% .308 71 6.13 142 -0.4
Jorge Benitez 50.0 8.6 6.5 1.4 15.0% 20.0% .308 75 5.94 134 -0.5

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3
Brayan Bello Shelby Miller Wily Peralta Jon Gray
Garrett Whitlock Doug Bird Bryn Smith Dutch Ulrich
Nick Pivetta Red Ruffing Howard Ehmke Robert Person
Chris Sale Teddy Higuera David Price Joe Nuxhall
Kutter Crawford Si Johnson Tom Bradley Bruce Kison
Josh Winckowski Adrian Houser Fred Beene Juan Dominguez
Isaac Coffey Taijuan Walker Henderson Alvarez Luis Cessa
Tanner Houck Pete Smith Bill Bevens Tommy Greene
James Paxton Jerry Koosman Juan Pizarro Gary Peters
Brian Van Belle Kyle Kendrick Jim Bagby Marcos Lopez
Victor Santos Taylor Clarke Jose Bautista Bill Fultz
Brandon Walter Niles Jordan Rick Honeycutt Horacio Estrada 에스트라다
Hunter Dobbins Henderson Alvarez Erasmo Ramirez Luis Cessa
Grant Gambrell Anthony Ranaudo 레나도 Cody Anderson Felipe Lira
Wikelman Gonzalez Gary Kanwisher Scott Scudder Dick Hughes
Shane Drohan Shawn Morimando Dave Owen Mike Connolly
Chris Murphy Fabio Castro Jalen Beeks Joe Kraemer
Angel Bastardo Jack Jenkins Mike James Carlos Carrasco
Yusniel Padron-Artiles D.J. Brown Mike McCarthy Greg LaFever
Justin Hagenman Matt Rusch Luis Andujar Joe Tully
Corey Kluber Shane Reynolds Andy Ashby Cal McLish
Chih-Jung Liu Isauro Pineda Grayson Long Scott Arnold
John Schreiber Mike Perez Will Harris Scott Linebrink
Matt Dermody Jack Kralick Hal Newhouser Jason Jacome
Chris Martin Doug Jones LaTroy Hawkins Warren Hacker
Kenley Jansen Santiago Casilla Dave Veres Joaquin Benoit
Nick Robertson George Frazier Pete Hamner Dario Veras 베라스
Mauricio Llovera Pete Ladd Casey Fien Joel Peralta
Isaiah Campbell Jim Donohue Warner Madrigal Heath Hembree
Brennan Bernardino Rich Rodriguez Craig Breslow Fernando Abad
Jacob Webb Mace Brown Cliff Politte Tom Sturdivant
Rio Gomez Brian Johnson Brian Tallet Jake Woods
Ryan Fernandez Juan Carlos Oviedo Santos Hernandez Fred Rath
Chase Shugart Ted Sadowski Mark Lockenmeyer Brian Smith
Sterling Sharp Ryan Glynn 라이언 Logan Bawcom Juan Carlos Sulbaran
Bryan Mata Bill Faul John Burke Gerald Herron
Frank German Pete Andrelczyk Johnny Barbato Andrew Bellatti
Alex Hoppe Matt Stites Drew Smith Erik Stiller
Taylor Broadway Ed Bauta Chuck Dale Pete Parise
Norwith Gudiño Bill Abernathie Les Webber Paul Patterson
Joely Rodríguez Jim Poole Jack O’Connor Fred Scherman
Andrew Politi Howie Judson Kane Davis 데이비스 Rick Bauer 바우어
Brendan Nail Cookie Cuccurullo Kevin Hickey Bob Macdonald
Zack Kelly Larry Sherry Bob Humphreys Alan Mills
Oddanier Mosqueda Chubby Dean C.J. Riefenhauser Eury De La Rosa
Zack Weiss Mark Corey Brandon Medders Louis Coleman
Ryan Miller Paul Phillips Jason Creasy Andrew Robinson
Dinelson Lamet John Purdin Larry Sherry Ron Davis
Teddy Stankiewicz Jorge De Paula Mikey O’Brien Shane Komine
Joe Jacques Kevin Hickey Russ Swan Jack Spring
Ryan Zeferjahn Corey Copping Ryan Garton Barry Manuel
Christopher Troye Jhan Marinez Wilmer Font 폰트 Tommy Kahnle
Cam Booser Edgar Huerta John Curtis Tommy Hottovy
Andrés Núñez Chuck Seelbach Bob Miller Mark Dewey
Kyle Barraclough Roy Parmelee Joe Coleman Ray Moore
Jake Faria Bryan Mitchell Thomas Lakos Brian Stokes
Robert Kwiatkowski Rich Humphrey Edwin Almonte Justin Souza
Justin Garza Victor Marte Josh Zeid Andre Rienzo
Theo Denlinger Joe Kerrigan Brian Drahman Jeff Nelson
Dylan Spacke Jaime Bluma Jacob Lemoine Mark Peterson
Brendan Cellucci Ryne Slack Gary Hart Russ Rohlicek
Wyatt Olds Roric Harrison Brian Innis Jim Olson
Skylar Arias Larry Heise Gabby Rodriguez Bill White
Cody Scroggins Marcel Lachemann Mike Heinen John Ogiltree
Jorge Benitez Scott Neal Jose Fernandez Matt Marksberry

Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Brayan Bello .269 .333 .459 .258 .321 .365 3.1 1.1 3.81 5.00
Garrett Whitlock .256 .299 .423 .240 .282 .385 2.6 1.1 3.02 4.61
Nick Pivetta .237 .316 .411 .243 .306 .427 2.6 0.7 3.93 5.22
Chris Sale .222 .291 .306 .249 .318 .444 2.0 0.5 3.62 5.52
Kutter Crawford .254 .332 .454 .247 .290 .390 2.0 0.7 3.96 5.18
Josh Winckowski .274 .335 .430 .249 .308 .404 2.1 0.6 3.74 5.08
Isaac Coffey .253 .320 .414 .265 .326 .449 2.0 0.6 4.05 5.31
Tanner Houck .258 .346 .458 .239 .308 .371 2.1 0.5 3.90 5.46
James Paxton .300 .373 .422 .254 .324 .453 1.8 0.1 4.10 5.80
Brian Van Belle .283 .338 .470 .281 .325 .460 1.8 0.5 4.37 5.42
Victor Santos .255 .313 .425 .286 .340 .450 1.6 0.4 4.44 5.64
Brandon Walter .242 .313 .348 .282 .339 .468 1.5 0.3 4.24 5.44
Hunter Dobbins .284 .347 .437 .265 .320 .441 1.5 0.4 4.31 5.40
Grant Gambrell .279 .343 .474 .272 .341 .443 1.4 0.2 4.57 5.68
Wikelman Gonzalez .270 .376 .454 .225 .336 .374 1.5 -0.1 4.55 5.87
Shane Drohan .306 .383 .460 .255 .345 .438 1.4 0.1 4.65 5.82
Chris Murphy .233 .331 .333 .275 .355 .467 1.3 -0.1 4.52 5.87
Angel Bastardo .258 .349 .467 .274 .357 .425 1.2 0.0 4.72 5.76
Yusniel Padron-Artiles .275 .331 .450 .286 .340 .486 1.1 0.1 4.58 5.85
Justin Hagenman .269 .333 .462 .263 .310 .410 1.1 0.0 3.82 5.43
Corey Kluber .291 .359 .497 .271 .320 .442 1.1 -0.1 4.53 6.18
Chih-Jung Liu .293 .393 .497 .249 .322 .418 1.1 -0.2 4.79 6.00
John Schreiber .257 .339 .426 .231 .304 .372 1.1 0.0 3.41 5.22
Matt Dermody .260 .326 .416 .288 .341 .464 0.8 0.2 4.36 5.51
Chris Martin .256 .301 .423 .289 .314 .464 0.9 0.0 3.04 5.26
Kenley Jansen .262 .333 .429 .211 .287 .400 1.1 -0.2 3.11 5.59
Nick Robertson .247 .319 .400 .250 .313 .397 0.9 -0.1 3.34 5.24
Mauricio Llovera .258 .347 .439 .241 .299 .392 0.7 0.0 3.74 5.60
Isaiah Campbell .247 .333 .435 .253 .312 .384 0.7 0.0 3.61 5.06
Brennan Bernardino .232 .317 .321 .262 .350 .459 0.8 -0.2 3.75 5.59
Jacob Webb .225 .316 .373 .238 .306 .408 0.8 -0.6 3.53 5.46
Rio Gomez .260 .348 .377 .274 .361 .480 0.7 -0.3 4.75 6.23
Ryan Fernandez .261 .327 .455 .264 .311 .418 0.7 -0.2 3.59 5.29
Chase Shugart .276 .343 .423 .294 .353 .500 0.6 -0.2 4.70 5.99
Sterling Sharp .313 .392 .513 .270 .348 .434 0.6 -0.2 5.13 6.23
Bryan Mata .265 .392 .436 .252 .353 .420 0.6 -0.3 5.10 6.38
Frank German .258 .352 .409 .259 .347 .444 0.6 -0.2 4.64 6.07
Alex Hoppe .276 .344 .448 .257 .315 .406 0.5 -0.2 3.89 5.16
Taylor Broadway .265 .337 .446 .270 .320 .427 0.4 -0.2 4.25 5.55
Norwith Gudiño .295 .370 .505 .265 .354 .416 0.4 -0.4 4.92 6.46
Joely Rodríguez .255 .327 .362 .277 .344 .470 0.4 -0.3 3.89 5.89
Andrew Politi .264 .347 .462 .260 .345 .402 0.6 -0.5 4.33 6.05
Brendan Nail .254 .343 .373 .268 .359 .455 0.4 -0.4 4.58 6.07
Zack Kelly .247 .363 .377 .256 .356 .477 0.3 -0.4 4.49 6.31
Oddanier Mosqueda .221 .337 .338 .268 .367 .465 0.4 -0.6 4.45 6.18
Zack Weiss .263 .371 .461 .244 .330 .400 0.4 -0.5 4.25 6.44
Ryan Miller .274 .352 .453 .275 .342 .441 0.3 -0.5 4.47 6.04
Dinelson Lamet .270 .372 .486 .233 .321 .397 0.3 -0.5 4.56 6.89
Teddy Stankiewicz .321 .408 .534 .277 .343 .447 0.3 -0.5 5.47 6.83
Joe Jacques .225 .309 .310 .296 .380 .500 0.4 -0.5 4.50 6.11
Ryan Zeferjahn .271 .404 .494 .250 .347 .385 0.2 -0.5 5.02 6.67
Christopher Troye .250 .394 .425 .218 .337 .379 0.2 -0.6 4.49 6.34
Cam Booser .241 .333 .414 .276 .362 .463 0.2 -0.7 4.45 6.39
Andrés Núñez .264 .352 .440 .274 .363 .436 0.3 -0.6 4.67 6.33
Kyle Barraclough .273 .387 .444 .261 .368 .470 0.2 -0.7 5.20 6.99
Jake Faria .276 .395 .449 .292 .368 .500 0.3 -0.5 5.27 6.89
Robert Kwiatkowski .322 .392 .544 .269 .328 .429 0.1 -0.5 4.98 6.18
Justin Garza .250 .385 .393 .278 .349 .496 0.1 -0.6 5.04 6.64
Theo Denlinger .280 .386 .480 .250 .356 .409 0.0 -0.6 4.87 6.44
Dylan Spacke .309 .405 .521 .261 .352 .396 0.0 -0.7 5.41 6.69
Brendan Cellucci .250 .400 .383 .273 .382 .477 0.0 -0.8 5.22 6.86
Wyatt Olds .282 .434 .492 .248 .370 .399 0.1 -1.0 5.75 7.17
Skylar Arias .235 .422 .353 .250 .402 .472 -0.1 -0.6 5.52 7.64
Cody Scroggins .274 .392 .484 .282 .395 .451 -0.2 -0.7 5.55 7.22
Jorge Benitez .220 .356 .322 .279 .400 .500 -0.1 -1.1 5.12 7.11

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.


JAWS and the 2024 Hall of Fame Ballot: Billy Wagner

Billy Wagner
USA Today

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2024 Hall of Fame ballot. Originally written for the 2016 election at SI.com, it has been updated to reflect recent voting results as well as additional research. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Billy Wagner was the ultimate underdog. Undersized and from both a broken home and an impoverished rural background, he channeled his frustrations into throwing incredibly hard — with his left hand, despite being a natural righty, for he broke his right arm twice as a child. Scouts overlooked him because he wasn’t anywhere close to six feet tall, but they couldn’t disregard his dominance over collegiate hitters using a mid-90s fastball. The Astros made him a first-round pick, and once he was converted to a relief role, his velocity went even higher.

Thanks to outstanding lower-body strength, coordination, and extraordinary range of motion, the 5-foot-10 Wagner was able to reach 100 mph with consistency — 159 times in 2003, according to The Bill James Handbook. Using a hard slider learned from teammate Brad Lidge, he kept blowing the ball by hitters into his late 30s to such an extent that he owns the record for the highest strikeout rate of any pitcher with at least 900 innings. He was still dominant when he walked away from the game following the 2010 season, fresh off posting a career-best ERA.

Lacking the longevity of Mariano Rivera or Trevor Hoffman, Wagner never set any saves records or even led his league once, and his innings total is well below those of every enshrined reliever. Hoffman’s status as the former all-time saves leader helped him get elected in 2018, but Wagner, who created similar value in his career, has major hurdles to surmount. There are, though, fewer hurdles than before: over the past four election cycles, his share of the vote has nearly quadrupled, from 16.7% in 2019 to 68.1% in ’23, not only pushing him past the all-important 50% threshold but also within range of election during this cycle. His advantages over Hoffman (and virtually every other reliever in history when it comes to rate stats) provide a compelling reason to study his career more closely. Given how far he’s come, who wants to bet against Billy Wags? Read the rest of this entry »


James Paxton Expects To Be Better Next Year

James Paxton
Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

All things considered, James Paxton had a productive season. In 19 starts comprising 96 innings, the recently turned–35-year-old left-hander fanned 101 batters, allowed 93 hits and logged a 4.50 ERA and a 4.68 FIP. The erstwhile Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees rotation mainstay put up those numbers with the Boston Red Sox between May 12 and September 1, and he did so after throwing just 1.1 innings over the past two-plus seasons. “Big Maple” underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2021, and he remained on the shelf the following year due to a lat tear incurred late in the rehab process. Factor in the truncated 2020 COVID campaign, and he’d tossed just 22.1 frames since September 2019.

Paxton, now a free agent, has been a quality pitcher when healthy. From 2017 to ’19, the hard-throwing Ladner, British Columbia native went 38–17 with a 3.54 ERA, a 3.26 FIP, and a 30.0% strikeout rate. His heater averaged 95.6 mph over that three-year span, just a few ticks over this year’s 95.3. As for next season, he expects not only to be throwing every bit as hard, but also to be close to his old self in terms of overall arsenal quality. He addressed that subject, as well as his experience returning to the mound in 2023, when I spoke to him at the end of September.

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David Laurila: You came back from Tommy John surgery. What has that experience been like in terms of your pitch quality?

James Paxton: “It’s definitely interesting coming back from it, the stuff differences [and] trying to figure out my arm again. I feel like the fastball came back, it felt really good, but the breaking stuff took some time. The cutter wasn’t the same pitch it was before Tommy John. I’m still kind of figuring that pitch out. I got to a place where it was good enough. I could use it, it just wasn’t the same as it was.”

Laurila: How has it been different?

Paxton: “I used to throw it harder. It was a shorter, harder slider, basically, and now it’s not quite as hard. I used to throw it 88–91 [mph] and now it’s like 85–87. It still has decent movement to it, but again, it’s just not quite the same pitch that it was before I got hurt. Maybe that’s something that will come back in year two. People say that your stuff isn’t really 100% back until the year after your first year back from Tommy John.” Read the rest of this entry »