The National League Wild Card race is wide open, with eight of the league’s 15 teams separated by a grand total of four and a half games in the standings. Five of those teams are currently below .500, their flaws on display on a daily basis — and some of those teams are at a particular disadvantage when it comes to their defenses.

On Wednesday, I investigated what a handful of the major defensive metrics — Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating, Statcast’s Fielding Run Value (FRV), and our catcher framing metric (hereafter abbreviated as FRM, as it is on our stat pages) — told us about the teams with the best defenses. Some of them appear to be playoff-bound, while others are barely hanging onto hope thanks in part to those defenses, among them the Diamondbacks. Read the rest of this entry »

The Red Sox have had quite the auspicious last few weeks. Their 16-6 record since June 12 is the best in baseball, and they’ve elevated their playoff odds to a season-high 48.0%, an excellent performance for a team that entered the year with a sub-.500 projection. In a tight AL Wild Card race, they’ve needed every single one of these recent victories, as Dan Szymborski recently found that Boston’s playoff hopes are more sensitive to small changes in the standings than those of any other team. As the trade deadline approaches, the Red Sox may find themselves in the running for big names. Much of their current success, though, is thanks to major improvements from players currently on the roster, such as pitchers Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford and catcher Connor Wong, whom Jay Jaffe wrote about yesterday. And no Red Sox player has leveled up his game more than the current team leader in plate appearances, runs scored, and WAR: Jarren Duran.

Duran’s breakout has come during his first season of full-time play; after cups of coffee in 2021 and ’22, he served as the strong side of a platoon last season, amassing a 120 wRC+ across 362 plate appearances. But there were some signs of future regression, as he outperformed his xwOBA by 35 points and relied on a .381 BABIP to slash .295/.346/.482. And while those raw numbers from 2023 have actually declined this season, to .275/.337/.473, Duran has put up a nearly identical 121 wRC+. Most encouragingly, he has much stronger peripherals backing up his slash line this year, indicating that his current production is sustainable.

The biggest change we’ve seen from Duran in 2024 is in his approach at the plate. Previously, it seemed as though his goal was to swing at anything near the strike zone and put the ball in play; he offered at the first pitch nearly 40% of the time. And while this strategy worked for him because he made a lot of contact, frequently on a line, his success depended on well-placed balls in play and didn’t make the most of his strength. Instead, it often felt like he sacrificed damage for contact, an unnecessary tradeoff given his solid bat-to-ball skills, especially on pitches in the strike zone. His power numbers last year – a 20th percentile barrel rate and 35th percentile xSLG – were far from what he was capable of.

Although Duran doesn’t look like the most physically imposing player on the field, he has excellent raw power, with maximum exit velocities over 112.5 mph in each of the past two seasons. He’s especially lethal against pitches down and in, where his bat speed, exit velocity, and overall production are all elite. Comparatively, he’s generated negative run values against pitches on the outer third or top of the zone, as his relatively long swing isn’t able to cover the needed distance in time. Understanding this, Duran has become more selective. He’s cut his first-pitch swing rate nearly in half, watching such offerings go by at nearly Mike Trout levels. He’s dropped his swing rate on strikes in his cold zones by nine points, in addition to a reduction in chase rate. The results of these adjustments has been staggering, and Duran has looked like a brand new hitter this year. Even without an increase in raw strength, Duran’s focus on swinging only at the best pitches have vaulted his barrel rate above the league average, along with his xSLG and xwOBA. Additionally, his taking more called strikes has aided more than just his power numbers: His strikeout and walk rates have actually improved with his new approach.

Remarkably, Duran legged out 34 doubles last year, 10 more two-baggers than he’s hit across 50 more trips to the plate this season. As we know, as many young players gain more experience, they learn how to turn those two-base hits into home runs — or as Kiri Oler dubbed this development, “summiting Doubles to Dingers Mountain” — so it’s not all that surprising that Duran is hitting fewer doubles as he’s added power. Except, well, he’s launching home runs at nearly the same pace as he did last year, in 2.4% of his plate appearances this season, up slightly from 2.2%. Instead, he’s managed to one-up his power production in a far less common way: He’s hitting way more triples. He’s still racking up plenty of doubles (24, tied for the fifth most in baseball), but he leads the majors with 10 triples, eight more than he hit last season. Altogether, he ranks fifth in the majors with 44 extra-base hits. He’s taking full advantage of the dimensions of his home stadium, as Fenway’s deep right-center field gap and the Green Monster in left make it the most doubles-friendly ballpark in the majors, especially for left-handed hitters, and the fifth-most triples-friendly park. This season, Duran has 18 doubles in just 133 balls in play at home. More specifically, Duran’s ability to smack balls off the Monster is absolutely unparalleled. I looked at spray charts of other prolific Red Sox hitters in recent memory – Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts – and none took advantage of their ballpark’s defining feature anywhere close to as frequently as Duran has in 2024.

Many of Duran’s 34 combined doubles and triples this year have resulted from his speed on the basepaths, fighting to take the extra bag at every opportunity. He’s always possessed plus-plus speed, and using Statcast’s new baserunning value leaderboard, we can see the run value of every single he’s stretched into a hustle double or base taken on a teammate’s hit. Duran ranks third in the league in such runs generated thanks to his aggression, and while a handful of speedsters have produced negative value from being overly cautious, Duran’s fearlessness has paid off. Aggressive baserunning has been an important part of Boston’s overall offensive improvements this year. The Red Sox have climbed to seventh in extra base taken rate compared to 25th a year ago. Statcast views them as the fourth-best baserunning team in baseball. When you combine this with Duran’s 21 steals on 24 attempts, the end result is one of the most valuable runners in the league; besides Duran, only Corbin Carroll and Elly De La Cruz are on pace to accrue 1 WAR from baserunning alone.

While Duran has solidified his approach at the plate and maintained his excellence on the basepaths, the area where he’s seen the most dramatic improvement this year is with his glove. Despite his 95th percentile sprint speed, Duran’s previous performance in the outfield, especially in center, left much to be desired; he totaled -5 FRV from 2021-23. Most of his poor plays occurred when he had to cover long distances on efficient routes; it was so bad that he made an appearance in a piece I wrote last year due to his awful route running. In that piece, I found there was a negative correlation between route efficiency and overall OAA, as an outfielder’s initial reaction and burst speed proved to be more important factors. Duran has been a key example of this: His routes are still rough, but the rest of his defensive game has improved tremendously. His +5 FRV ranks in the 89th percentile (though second to Ceddanne Rafaela in his own outfield), while only Daulton Varsho has more DRS than Duran’s 12 among outfielders.

Duran’s reactions and first steps have improved to the point where his routes haven’t impacted his ability to get to balls. Last year, he failed to make both of the difficult-but-possible plays that involved covering over 100 feet of ground to make the catch; this year he’s a perfect 4-for-4. However, the plays that have turned his defensive metrics from below average to excellent aren’t the long-distance runs but the line drives, where instincts and initial reactions are everything. In 2024, Duran has had 11 play opportunities on balls between 30 and 50 feet away from him with fewer than four seconds to make the catch. He’s converted 10 of them, contributing to half of his total OAA. While he was similarly successful at catching these hard liners in previous seasons, he had only a few such play opportunities. Duran isn’t doing anything different with his positioning this year, so it remains to be seen whether he’ll continue to get so many catch opportunities on these hard liners. Regardless, it’s safe to say that he’s made the most of the fielding chances he’s been given.

Nearing the All-Star break, the Red Sox have as close to coin-flip playoff odds as any other club, and the high stakes they’ve played under combined with their meteoric performance over the past few weeks have made them one of the most exciting teams in baseball to watch. And in the middle of it is the homegrown All-Star Duran, whose improvements have manifested in every single aspect of his game.

The Red Sox may never entirely live down the 2020 trade of Mookie Betts, but four years and change later, Boston’s last man standing from that deal is enjoying a breakout. Catcher Connor Wong just reeled off a 17-game hitting streak that spanned four weeks, and even made a case for a spot on the AL All-Star team, though he fell short on that front.

The 28-year-old Wong began his streak with a single off White Sox right-hander Jake Woodford on June 6, and added another single off Tim Hill later in the game. Despite taking a three-day paternity leave from June 24–27, he started 16 of Boston’s next 23 games, sprinkling in four other two-hit games.

With his single off Trevor Rogers last Tuesday, Wong extended his streak to 17 games, the longest by any Red Sox player this season and tied for the seventh-longest of any player this year; Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto is one of three other players who also had a 17-gamer. The longest hitting streak ever for a catcher is 34 games, set by the Padres’ Benito Santiago in 1987. The closest any catcher has come to approaching Santiago in the last decade was in 2019, when the Mets’ Wilson Ramos went 23 games; all of the other hitting streaks by catchers of at least 20 games happened in 2003 or earlier. Read the rest of this entry »

The 2020s have been a quiet time for the Boston Red Sox. Since winning the 2018 World Series, their fourth in a 15-year period, Boston hasn’t looked much like one of the titans, ready to throw down with the Yankees or Astros in brutal warfare for baseball supremacy. Instead, as an organization, the Red Sox have taken on the character of a genial, pastorale retiree, gently reclining on the porch of an American Craftsman house, as if they were in a 1980s lemonade commercial.

On Independence Day in 2022, Boston was second in the AL East with the junior circuit’s third-best record, but in the space of a month, it had lost Nathan Eovaldi, Garrett Whitlock, Michael Wacha, and Rich Hill to injuries. It was the prime time to make trades, but the Red Sox did basically nothing that would have helped them maintain their playoff relevance; their pitching staff’s 6.30 ERA for July dropped them below .500 by the time the Sox made their pointless acquisition of Eric Hosmer at the trade deadline. At last year’s deadline, when they were just 3.5 games out of the final wild card spot, they decided the day was intolerably hot and they were content to sip the last of their sweet tea as they watched and waited for the fireflies to come out at the dying of the day. Once again, Boston is in contention during trade season, a half-game up on the Royals for the last AL playoff spot, and it’s time for them to get up off the porch. Read the rest of this entry »

Willie Mays was already a superstar by the time the Giants moved across the country following the 1957 season, yet the denizens of San Francisco did not exactly embrace him. They took much more quickly to Orlando Cepeda, who homered against the Dodgers in his major league debut on April 15, 1958, the team’s first game at Seals Stadium, its temporary new home. The slugging 20-year-old first baseman, nicknamed “The Baby Bull” — in deference to his father Pedro “The Bull” Cepeda, a star player in his own right in their native Puerto Rico — was a perfect fit for San Francisco and its culture. He helped to infuse excitement into what had been a sixth-place team the year before, winning NL Rookie of the Year honors in 1958 and kicking off a 17-year career that included an MVP award, a World Series championship, and an induction into the National Baseball Hall of Fame, not to mention a statue outside Oracle Park.

Sadly, 10 days after Mays’ death at the age of 93, the 86-year-old Cepeda passed away as well. The Giants and the Cepeda family announced his death on Friday night — fittingly, during a game against the Dodgers; fans at Oracle Park stood to observe a moment of silence. “Our beloved Orlando passed away peacefully at home this evening, listening to his favorite music and surrounded by his loved ones,” said Nydia Fernandez, his second of three wives, in the statement. No cause of death was provided.

As the second Black Puerto Rican to play in the AL or NL, after Roberto Clemente, Cepeda became a hero in his homeland as well as a favorite of Giants fans. He spent nine seasons with the Giants (1958-66) before trades to the Cardinals (1966–68) and Braves (1969–72), followed by brief stints with the A’s (1972), Red Sox (1973), and Royals (1974) at the tail end of his career. The 6-foot-2, 210-pound righty was a middle-of-the-lineup force on three pennant winners, including the 1967 champion Cardinals, and was selected for an All-Star team 11 times, including two per year from 1959–62; he was the first Puerto Rican player to start an All-Star Game in the first of those seasons. He was the first player to win both the Rookie of the Year and MVP awards unanimously; Albert Pujols is the only one to replicate that feat. Cepeda finished his career with 2,351 hits, 379 homers, 142 steals, and a lifetime batting line of .297/.350/.499 (133 OPS+).

Not everything came easily for Cepeda. If not for the pitcher-friendliness of the Giants’ home ballparks — first Seals Stadium and then Candlestick Park — as well as a series of knee injuries that led to 10 surgeries, he might have hit at least 500 home runs. His path to the Hall of Fame took an extreme detour due to a conviction for smuggling marijuana, which resulted in a 10-month stint in federal prison as well as a humiliating fall from grace in Puerto Rico. Only after his release and his conversion to Buddhism was he able to rehabilitate his image and work his way back into the game’s good graces, a process that culminated with his election to the Hall of Fame by the Veterans Committee in 1999, 25 years after his final game. He was the second Puerto Rican player inducted, preceded only by Clemente. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Boston Red Sox. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the fourth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

Takeya Nakamura is atypical among NPB hitters. The 40-year-old Seibu Lions infielder not only has 478 career home runs — ninth-most in Japan’s top league — he has fanned 2,118 times. Ingloriously, that is the highest strikeout total in Japanese baseball history.

How is the Adam Dunn-like slugger looked upon in a baseball culture that favors contact over power? I asked that question to Toronto Blue Jays southpaw Yusei Kikuchi, who played alongside Nakamura with the Seibu Lions for eight seasons.

“He’s a former teammate of mine and I really respect him as a player and a human being,” said Kikuchi through translator Yusuke Oshima. “There aren’t a lot of hitters with pop over there. I think those kind of players should be more respected in Japan, because it’s natural for home run hitters to strike out a lot. It’s a tradeoff. He’s said that he’s not worried about it. People should be more open-minded when it comes to those things.”

Kikuchi added that there aren’t a lot of hitters like Nakamura in Japan because “coaches over there tend to frown upon striking out a lot.” Moreover, the statistical categories that are valued most are hits, batting average, runs scored, and RBIs. Pitchers are viewed in a traditionally-similar manner. Much as it once was stateside, wins are what matter most. Read the rest of this entry »

There were a few good reasons for me to catch up with Tanner Houck this past week. One is that he has arguably been the best starting pitcher in baseball over the first half of the season. Along with a 2.18 ERA and a 2.20 FIP, the 27-year-old Boston Red Sox right-hander boasts the highest WAR (3.6) among big league hurlers. Another is that I’ve been due to ask him about the pitch he relies on most. Per Statcast, Houck has thrown 41.8% sliders, 30.8% sinkers, 24.8% splitters, and 2.6% cutters.

Back in 2019, when he was pitching in Double-A, Houck was featured here at FanGraphs in an interview that focused on his sinker. Two years later, a second interview explored a developing splitter that, as my colleague Kyle Kishimoto detailed just over a month ago, has become an especially effective weapon. Which brings us to the here and now. Interested in both how Houck’s slider has evolved and how it plays within his three-pitch arsenal, I approached him to get some answers.

———

David Laurila: How does the slider you’re currently throwing differ from the one you had last year?

Tanner Houck: “It’s a different grip, technically. Last year, I was running up the horseshoe a little too much and not getting as much side-to-side action. This year there is a focus of creating more east-to-west, side-to-side movement with the pitch, as well as on prioritizing throwing it more in bigger situations. It’s my best pitch by far, so I’m leveraging it whenever I can in those big moments.” Read the rest of this entry »

Daniel Schneemann’s claim to fame is having played six positions in his first six MLB games — reportedly no player had done so in over 100 years — but a peculiar versatility record hasn’t been the 27-year-old infielder/outfielder’s only noteworthy accomplishment since he debuted on June 2nd. A surprise contributor to a surprisingly-stellar Cleveland Guardians club, Schneemann has slashed .297/.422/.568 with two home runs and a 182 wRC+ over 45 plate appearances.

To say that the Brigham Young University product has come out of nowhere may not be wholly accurate, but at the same time, he kind of has. A 33rd-round pick in the 2018 draft, Schneemann was an unranked prospect throughout his seven minor league seasons, and his numbers — at least prior to this year’s .294/.428/.556 with 10 home runs in Triple-A — were never anything to write home about.

Intrigued by his transformative emergence, I asked the San Diego native about the adjustments he’s made to get to where he is now.

“They were gradual,” Schneemann told me earlier this week prior to a game at Cleveland’s Progressive Field. “I started making the ones that are important to me in the offseason after 2022. I had some success in 2023 (a 102 wRC+ and 13 home runs at Triple-A Columbus), and built off of those adjustments prior to this season. I’ve seen better results this year, as well.” Read the rest of this entry »

Triston Casas — as evidenced by his Talks Hitting interview last summer — has a thoughtful approach to his craft. The 24-year-old Boston Red Sox slugger, who is currently on the injured list with torn rib cartilage, is not afraid to be himself, as many fans experienced during his in-game interview with ESPN on Sunday Night Baseball on Father’s Day. Call him quirky or what you will, but when it comes to damaging baseballs, Casas knows his stuff. Over 687 career plate appearances, he has 35 home runs and a 128 wRC+.

Casas talked about his preparation process prior to a recent game at Fenway Park.

———

David Laurila: How do you train for hitting?

Triston Casas: “When you say hitting, I’m assuming that you mean striking the ball. There is so much that goes into the striking of the baseball. There are a lot of moving parts mechanically [and] mentally that culminate into the perfect storm of creating that compression between the barrel of the bat and the ball. How do I train that? It has a lot to do with my weight room routine. I try to think of the swing as my most athletic move. I don’t want it to be mechanical, rigid, or thought about. I just want it to be fluid. Effortless.”

Laurila: And reactional, I would assume…

Casas: “For sure. If you think about how difficult it is to hit a baseball… I mean, the plate is seven balls wide and, generously, about 10 balls high. You’ve got to cover a range of about 30 miles an hour, between 70 and 100 — that’s typically the normal range of speeds — and then there is a pitch that moves to every direction at the bottom side of a clock. So, you multiply 30 times 70 times about six, generously — maybe seven or eight — and it is a lot of possibilities. Not to mention that every single pitcher is a different height. They all have different dimensions in terms of their wingspans. They all get out to a different extension point or release height.

“There can be two 80 mph curveballs that… I mean, I can go look back at my at-bats and there can be two 80-mph curveballs right down the middle, and they’re still not the same pitch. They’re coming from different release heights. The rpms are different. The metrics on them are all different. So, it’s not just as easy as ‘Oh, let me look at two swings side by side of the same exact pitch,’ because conditions might be different. Defensive positioning might be different. My setup should have been different. And my thought process, my approach… all those things factor into how I stand in the box, and the in-at-bat adjustments that I’m making throughout the season.

“Training hitting is about an innate ability to just go out there and compete. In my opinion, there aren’t a lot of mechanical drills that you can do. Yeah, there are certain cues that you can give yourself mentally to try to get yourself in a good position, or put yourself in a good powerful contact position — the balanced one. There are definitely a lot of characteristics that great hitters have in common, but ultimately it’s about being able to make a decision after the ball is released. That’s one of the things I talk about a lot with the hitters here. Trying to be anticipative and beat the ball to a spot is not a good recipe for success. Yeah, it might create a result, but it’s one that’s falsified. It’s happy-go-lucky. But to create a long sustainable amount of success, I feel like there has to be a reactionary, involuntary, timed… a war, almost. It’s a war in your body and in your mind.

“That’s how I train hitting, by not overcomplicating the mechanics. It’s about understanding that, for me, it’s a lot about having feel within the box. It’s about going out there trying to execute a game plan.”

Laurila: With no two pitches being exactly the same in mind, do you train with a Trajekt? That individualizes a pitcher’s velocity, movement, and slot. Correct?

Casas: “Yes, they are individualizing the release points, and all that, but it’s not simulating how the pitcher tips the curveball. Even though it’s a projection of a pitcher, every pitcher out there on the mound — whether they think it or not, or whether anybody else does — tips the pitch, because they have to do something differently to throw a curveball than a fastball. Within that pitch, or him coming down the mound, there is an adjustment that he has to make to take off the velocity and add spin. A Trajekt doesn’t necessarily project that.

“I do see how the Trajekt can benefit some hitters. I actually do like to use the Trajekt — I can’t speak for anybody else — but it’s mostly just for the timing of his motion. It’s a little bit better of a gauge than to just do it off of video from the back, per se. Getting his timing off just scouting-report videos would be a little tough. Getting a projected image, so that I can kind of sync in my dance with the pitcher, is where I can see the Trajekt to be most beneficial.

“In terms of trying to develop a game plan because of his plot chart, and his pitch characteristics, and the metrics of his slider — or breaking balls compared to one another — it’s not that accurate to where I can really be, ‘Yeah, that looks exactly like it does out there.’ That said, the Trajekt is a great tool. I’ve been using it a lot in my rehabilitation process, just in terms of tracking and trying to stay sharp with my reaction times.

“It’s something that I want to incorporate into my game-day routine. I haven’t done so up to now, I’ve just taken a few swings off a regular machine and then let it rip come game time.”

Laurila: Why haven’t you used it for game-day prep up to this point?

Casas: “It’s something I had never really done before this level, so I tried to not overcomplicate things and add to something that I didn’t feel needed adjusting in my routine.”

Laurila: Do the Red Sox have Trajekt in the minors?

Casas: “They have it now in Triple-A, but when I was in Triple-A in 2022 they did not. Then, last year, in 2023, they were still fine-tuning it. I haven’t found a way to buy into it yet, but I’m really starting to like it. Even if it’s just for something as simple as tracking, or even bunting, just trying to get that reaction time back in my favor.”

Laurila: What do you mean by bunting?

Csasas: “Literally standing in there and tracking the ball all the way to the barrel and trying to manipulate the contact point to whichever side of the field I want. Bunting is such a powerful tool and skill to display out there. But just to be able to do it in a controlled environment… like, the Trajekt is still tough. I feel like it can help you slow down the ball, which is everything in hitting — being able to try to make a 98-mph fastball look like an 88-mph fastball. That’s what great hitters do. They have quiet heads and balanced positions. They make the game look slower than than it actually is.”

Laurila: Training for high velocity, say an Ohtani fastball, can only help…

Casas: “I’ve asked for exaggerated characteristics on the Trajekt, because I want it to seem a little unrealistic. Some people like it a little more toned down, because they want to feel confident going into the game. I prefer my practice to be a little more challenging. I’ve asked for verticals of 27-28. I’ve asked for horizontals that are unrealistic. I like the challenge. So yeah, I could definitely see myself using it more.”

Laurila: Is there anything else, preparation-wise, that we should be touching on? I know that you’re big on meditation and visualization…

Casas: “Of course. They’re such a big part of my routine. You can make anything look like you want to in your head. Whoever I’m facing that day, or for the at-bat, I can adjust anything that I want. If I close my eyes and imagine a pitcher vividly enough, I can make his characteristics jump off the page. I can make his breaking ball so sharp. I can make his two-seam run from my mid-back to the inside corner. I can picture his pitches doing what they do.

“Even when I do my tracking in the bullpen… the eyes are such an underrated part of the body and part of training. There are muscles within eyes that are underdeveloped if you don’t really progress them. The eyes are the most important thing in hitting. Anybody will tell you that. It’s such an undertrained tool. The eyes and ability to have depth perception — it’s such an underappreciated, under-talked-about skill to be able to look at the space in front of the ball. It’s not just looking at the ball. It’s being able to anticipate the ball’s movement, the rotation, based off whatever tips the pitcher may be allowing you to have. That all goes into my process and preparation.”