In a stunning development, the results of a BBWAA awards vote have generated massive controversy in the baseball world. Who could have seen that coming? A shocker to be sure!

Despite failing to receive the most first-place votes, Rick Porcello has edged out Justin Verlander to win the American League Cy Young Award. The full results of the balloting can be found here. Porcello beat Verlander by just five points, 137 to 132. That’s as tight a race as you’re going to see. It was largely due to the fact that while Verlander got 14 of the 30 possible first-place votes, Porcello received 18 second-place votes, and Verlander was left entirely off of two ballots.

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Over time, teams take on the characteristics of some of their key players in the minds of analysts and fans. The Rays are eternally linked with Evan Longoria, known for power taking precedence at the plate, with a focus on defense. Similarly, Ryan Braun is the poster child for the Brewers, a bat-oriented player without a material defensive presence.

This week and next, let’s allow the players themselves to fade into the background, and draw some conclusions from a simple set of numbers — namely, each of the 10 playoff clubs’ team ball-in-play (BIP) statistics, broken down by exit speed and launch angles. We’ll examine what made these teams tick during the regular season and allowed them to play meaningful October baseball.

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Travis Shaw was a dangerous hitter early in the season. Heading into Memorial Day weekend, the Red Sox third baseman was slashing .302/.365/.527. He had seven home runs — and a firm hold on a position that opened up when Pablo Sandoval underwent shoulder surgery. Then he began to struggle.

The 26-year-old Kent State product put up a .586 OPS in June, and by the end of the season his slash line had fallen to .242/.306/.421. His power numbers weren’t bad. Shaw finished with 52 extra-base hits, including 16 home runs. He was streaky throughout, though. Prior to an abysmal final two weeks that cratered his numbers — and lost him his job — Shaw was productive. Then, from August 29 to September 14, he went 13-for-35, with three doubles and a pair of home runs.

Shaw had a chance to be a hero on Monday. After coming off the bench and singling in his first postseason at bat, he faced Indians closer Cody Allen with two on and two out in the bottom of the ninth inning, his team down a run. He flew out to right field, ending his — and the Red Sox’ — season.

Shaw talked about his mental approach to hitting — including how he goes in and out of slumps — at the tail end of his September hot stretch.

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Shaw on seeing the ball and battling slumps: “I was with [hitting coach] Rich Gedman at every single level, and he constantly said, ‘Keep your head on the ball, keep your head on the ball.’ You hear that from the time you’re young, but you don’t really think much of it. But if you look at video when you’re struggling, sure enough, instead of your head being down on contact, it’s pulling out just a tad. If you concentrate on what he said — just seeing the baseball — everything slows itself down and you put yourself in a better position to hit. Rich was constantly on us about that in the minor leagues.

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In a few hours, the Red Sox play their first win-or-go-home game of the season. And with their season on the line, they’re handing the ball to Clay Buchholz.

Yes, the same Clay Buchholz who posted a 4.78 ERA, 5.06 FIP, and 5.32 xFIP this season while getting bounced from the rotation. Buchholz is getting the ball in large part because of how he finished the season, as he ran a 2.86 ERA over his final 10 appearances. But despite some talk of changes in his approach, the Red Sox should not fall victim to overweighting recent performance; most of the evidence suggests that Buchholz is still not a very good pitcher, and shouldn’t be allowed to dig the team any kind of hole this afternoon.

Even if we accept the arbitrary endpoints that allow a focus on just his 10 most recent appearances, Buchholz actually wasn’t even that good down the stretch. Here’s his line from those 10 outings, compared to his 27 appearances prior to that stretch.

The walks are down a little bit, the strikeouts are up a little bit, and overall, Buchholz did pitch better in the last 10 games than he did at the start of the year. But really, there’s one column there driving almost all of the difference: his home run rate got cut in half, which led to him stranding a bunch of runners. John Farrell even states this, without using numbers, in his assessment of Buchholz’s improvement.

“Where he was burnt earlier in the season by the big inning, he’s avoided the big inning by virtue of not allowing multiple runners inside of a given inning then a big blow, a three-run homer or something like that, has followed.

The argument for Buchholz as a pitcher worthy of starting an elimination game relies on buying into six weeks of home-run suppression; outside of the 7% HR/FB ratio he put up in those last 10 outings, he still didn’t really pitch all that well. And it’s not like Buchholz has a long history of running very low HR/FB rates; his career mark is 10%, just a tick below the league average over those years. His career FIP and xFIP are almost identical, so there just isn’t any real reason to think that Buchholz is now a guy who give up long fly-ball outs without giving up home runs.

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Ever since (and including) a three-inning relief appearance against the Angels on July 31, Boston right-hander Clay Buchholz has recorded some promising numbers. In terms of run prevention, he’s been great: a 2.85 ERA in the American League is about 36% better than league average. By underlying factors, meanwhile, he’s been solid. His strikeout- and walk-rate differential (K-BB%) has actually been below average. By avoiding the home run, though, his fielding-independent numbers have been better than league average. Maybe he’s made a real change!

Poke around in his pitching mix, look through his pitches, and you might return to those luck factors, though. For one, a big part of what’s been different has been a return to the four-seamer. His worst pitch.

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Corey Kluber and David Price will on the mound later today when the Indians host the Red Sox in Game 2 of the ALDS. Before each faces his first batter, he will go through a warmup routine. The Cleveland righty and the Boston lefty will do so in a similar manner, but with a few notable differences.

Both will begin by playing catch in the outfield approximately 30 minutes before the start of the game. Price specified 35 minutes. Kluber didn’t give a specific time, but he’s no less structured. He told me that everything is mapped out, including when he begins long-tossing on the field. His routine on the road begins five minutes earlier, as he won’t be pitching in the top half of the first inning.

Kluber throws “30 to 35 pitches” once he gets on the bullpen mound. Price throws “40 to 45 pitches,” which he said is “probably more than most guys.” As you’d expect, each begins at a lower intensity — “about 70% effort for the first 10-15” for Price — before ramping up. Fastball command is the primary goal at the beginning of the session.

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Come playoff time, you tend to see a lot of team-to-team comparisons. And when you see team-to-team comparisons, the people doing the comparing frequently lean on regular-season statistics. And, you know, in theory that makes plenty of sense. Those numbers are readily available all over the place, and, isn’t the regular season a hell of a sample? Doesn’t the regular season pretty adequately reflect the level of talent on a given roster?

I’m not going to argue that regular-season numbers are or aren’t more important than, say, postseason numbers. The regular season obviously has the biggest and therefore the most meaningful sample. But as should go without saying, things change come October. Rosters are optimized, and usage patterns shift. For example, during the year, Rangers hitters had a 98 wRC+. Rangers hitters on the roster today averaged a weighted 106 wRC+. During the year, Rangers relievers had a 100 ERA-. Rangers relievers expected to relieve in the playoffs averaged a weighted 75 ERA-. The Rangers aren’t what they were for six months. No team is, entirely. So what do we have now? What does the actual, weighted playoff landscape look like?

Time for some tables of numbers. That’s almost as fun as actual baseball!

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On the surface, the Red Sox and Indians series is somewhat evenly matched. The Indians won 94 games, the Red Sox won 93, and that one-game difference gives Cleveland home-field advantage for the ALDS. But if you look at our Playoff Odds page, our forecasts give the Red Sox a 60% chance of winning this series, because the Red Sox are quietly a monster in waiting.

They had the best offense in the AL this year, and by a laughable margin.

With an offense that dominant, the pitching staff just needs to be okay, and that’s mostly what the Red Sox staff was this year. They weren’t great, but they were solidly above average, and that’s why the Red Sox outscored their opponents by 184 runs, the second-best total in baseball. The Sox pitching staff was strong up front but weak at the back end, as their collection of No. 4 and No. 5 starters all struggled, but that’s the kind of weakness that is downplayed in the postseason. And with more emphasis on bullpen usage in the playoffs, a couple of those struggling starters could turn out to be incredibly valuable for the Red Sox this October.

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I’ve got a vote for American League Manager of the Year this season and I’m terrified. My first vote as a member of the Baseball Writer’s Association, and it’s the impossible one.

Maybe impossible is too tough a word. I’m sure I’ll figure something out in time to submit a vote. But evaluating the productivity of a manager just seems so difficult. We’ve seen efforts that use the difference between projected and actual wins, or between “true talent” estimations for the team and their actual outcomes. But those attribute all sorts of random chance to the manager’s machinations.

I’d like to instead identify measurable moments where a manager exerts a direct influence on his team, assign those values or ranks, and see where each current manager sits. So what are those measurable moments?

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David Ortiz was feted at Fenway Park yesterday. The 40-year-old slugger will retire following the postseason, and he’s deserving of any and all accolades that come his way. “Big Papi” finished the regular-season portion of his career with 541 home runs, 4,765 total bases, and a .931 OPS.

His October exploits are legendary. Ortiz has 17 home runs and 60 RBI in postseason action, many of which have come in key situations. The Red Sox have captured three World Series titles — their first since 1918 — since he joined the team in 2003. His slash line in those Fall Classics is .455/.576/.795.

The Dominican Republic born-and-raised slugger is a Boston icon for more than his on-field accomplishments. His charitable endeavors have been exemplary, his engaging personality omnipresent. His larger-than-life persona has captivated his adopted home. Ortiz will long be remembered for his words following the Boston Marathon bombing: ‘This is our f-ing city.”

Myriad people throughout the game have shared their thoughts on the soon-to-retire superstar in recent weeks. I collected quotes from 15, including players, managers, executives and broadcasters.

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Dusty Baker, Washington Nationals manager: “I’d have loved to have had David Ortiz on my teams. The postseasons he’s had… he’s carried them by himself, through sheer willpower. David Ortiz is one of the best that’s ever played this game. To me, he’s one of the best leaders that’s played this game. People gravitate toward him. That’s what being a leader is about. If David Ortiz wants it… what Big Papi wants, usually Big Papi gets.”

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