In the offense edition, I used a game show format to evaluate whether the perspective offered by BaseRuns has a point, or if there’s something its methodology is overlooking. We’ll keep that framework going for the defenses as well. Here’s a reminder of how it works:
To determine whether or not BaseRuns knows what it’s talking about with respect to each team, imagine yourself sitting in the audience on a game show set. The person on your left is dressed as Little Bo Peep, while the person on your right has gone to great lengths to look like Beetlejuice. That or Michael Keaton is really hard up for money. On stage there are a series of doors, each labeled with a team name. Behind each door is a flashing neon sign that reads either “Skill Issue!” or “Built Different!” Both can be either complimentary or derogatory depending on whether BaseRuns is more or less optimistic about a team relative to its actual record. For teams that BaseRuns suggests are better than the numbers indicate, the skill issue identified is a good thing — a latent ability not yet apparent in the on-field results. But if BaseRuns thinks a team is worse than the numbers currently imply, then skill issue is used more colloquially to suggest a lack thereof. The teams that are built different buck the norms laid out by BaseRuns and find a way that BaseRuns doesn’t consider to either excel or struggle.
In a post yesterday, I wrote about the BaseRuns approach to estimating team winning percentages and how it attempts to strip away context that doesn’t pertain to a team’s actual ability, so as to reveal what would have happened if baseball were played in a world not governed by the whims of seemingly random variation. In this world, a win-loss record truly represents how good a team actually is. Try as it might, the BaseRuns methodology fails to actually create such a world, sometimes stripping away too much context, ignoring factors that do speak to a team’s quality, or both.
I delayed for a separate post (this one!) a deeper discussion of specific offensive and defensive units that BaseRuns represents quite differently compared to the actual numbers posted by these teams. To determine whether or not BaseRuns knows what it’s talking about with respect to each team, imagine yourself sitting in the audience on a game show set. The person on your left is dressed as Little Bo Peep, while the person on your right has gone to great lengths to look like Beetlejuice. That or Michael Keaton is really hard up for money. On stage there are a series of doors, each labeled with a team name. Behind each door is a flashing neon sign that reads either “Skill Issue!” or “Built Different!” Both can be either complimentary or derogatory depending on whether BaseRuns is more or less optimistic about a team relative to its actual record. For teams that BaseRuns suggests are better than the numbers indicate, the skill issue identified is a good thing — a latent ability not yet apparent in the on-field results. But if BaseRuns thinks a team is worse than the numbers currently imply, then skill issue is used more colloquially to suggest a lack thereof. The teams that are built different buck the norms laid out by BaseRuns and find a way that BaseRuns doesn’t consider to either excel or struggle. Read the rest of this entry »
Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. I won’t try to slow-play it; there was nothing I didn’t like this week. Baseball is freaking great right now. There are huge blockbuster trades that ignite passionate fanbases, for better or worse. The playoff chase is starting to heat up as we approach the All Star break. Crowds are picking up now that school is out. The weather is beautiful in seemingly every stadium. We’ve entered San Francisco Summer, which means it’s a lovely 57 and foggy most days here, ideal baseball weather for me (and you, too, if you live here long enough to acclimate). So I have no bones to pick this week, nothing that irked or piqued me. It’s just pure appreciation for this beautiful game – and, as always, for Zach Lowe of The Ringer, whose column idea I adapted from basketball to baseball.
1. The Streaking… Rockies?!
The hottest team in baseball right now? That’d be the Red Sox or Dodgers, probably – maybe the Rays or Astros depending on what time horizon you’re looking at. But if you adjust for difficulty level, it has to be the Rockies, who were one James Wood superhuman effort (two two-run homers in a 4-3 victory) away from a four-game sweep of the Nationals. Add that to their Sunday victory over the Braves, and they’re 4-1 in their last five. That could have been a five-game winning streak!
Sure, baseball is a game of randomness. Every team gets hot for little micro-patches of the season. But, well, this feels like the biggest test of the “anyone can do anything for 10 games” theory in quite some time. These Rockies are terrible. Their everyday lineup features six players with a combined -1.4 WAR this year. Those the starters – the bench is worse than that. Their rotation has an aggregate 6.23 ERA. They’ve been outscored by 196 runs this year; the next-closest team is the Athletics at -128. Read the rest of this entry »
Yesterday, Hannah Keyser, of the excellent Bandwagon newsletter, threw down the gauntlet on Bluesky. She posted a screenshot from MLB Network’s daily research packet and wrote, “I challenge the researches at MLBN who put out the daily stat packet to find a split that makes the Rockies look good.” The screenshot featured a single line of text:
The daily research packet is exactly what it sounds like, a multi-page document that contains tons of research on the day’s slate of games, broken down into bit-sized pieces of interesting information. A team of researchers assembles it each morning, then distributes it far and wide across the baseball media ecosphere. Although you’ve probably never seen this document, it has unquestionably informed your experience as a fan. Each broadcast team has its own researchers, of course, but if you’re watching a game and you hear the announcer casually mention that Mickey Moniak is batting .333 with a .476 slugging percentage when he represents the go-ahead run, you can feel pretty confident that they read that fun fact verbatim from the packet. Read the rest of this entry »
When the Rockies fired Bud Black on Sunday, the immediate reaction — a sarcastic “Oh, sure, that’ll solve everything” — missed… not all the point, but some of the point.
Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. With the first month of major league baseball in the books, I’m settling into the rhythm of the regular season. Baseball writing in the morning, baseball on TV in the afternoon, and usually baseball on TV in the evening. Every so often, I’ll skip two of those and go to the ballpark instead. The actual baseball is falling into a rhythm, too. The Dodgers have the best record in baseball, Aaron Judge is the best hitter, and Paul Skenes is the best pitcher, just like we all expected. But part of the rhythm of baseball is that the unexpected happens multiple times a day, and that’s what Five Things is for. With a nod of recognition and thanks to Zach Lowe of The Ringer for the column format, let’s start the shenanigans.
1. Stopping at Third
The math is pretty easy: A double with runners on second and third scores both runners. Sometimes it even brings home a guy standing on first at the start of the play, too. Last week, though, things got weird. First, Jacob Stallings flat out demolished a ball off the right field wall, but Hunter Goodman didn’t have the read:
Hey, that happens. There are a few plays like this in the majors every year. The batter can tear around the bases as much as he wants, but runners have to stop and make sure it’s a hit first. Goodman couldn’t be sure that the ball would hit the wall, and with no one out, he quite reasonably played it safe. Blake Dunn played the carom perfectly, and again, with nobody out, Goodman didn’t try his luck at home. Read the rest of this entry »
Isaiah J. Downing and Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
Anything worth doing is worth doing right, and when it came to losing games, the 2024 White Sox were the grandmasters of the art. Sure, the 1899 Cleveland Spiders had a worse record, but that was an intentionally terrible team thanks to an owner who sent the club’s good players over to another team they owned, the St. Louis Perfectos. The 1962 Mets edged the Sox in win percentage, but that notorious team had the advantage of being an expansion club in their first year after an expansion draft that was so short on talent, it resembled a grocery store’s toilet paper aisle during the height of COVID. Last year’s White Sox were just two years removed from a .500 record, and by all accounts, ownership and the front office intended to actually win games. A strong record, however, needs to be forged in the fire of new challengers, and this season, two early contenders have emerged: the Colorado Rockies and the reigning lastpions themselves.
The Rockies are off to a blazing cold start and are the current frontrunners with a 4-20 record. For a team with a winning percentage short of .200, Colorado has received some surprisingly competent pitching performances, with the two main splats being former Cy Young contender Germán Márquez and top prospect Chase Dollander. Where the Rockies have been stunningly poor is on the offensive side of things, with the team hitting .213/.287/.345 and just barely averaging three runs per game. Fourteen hitters have at least 20 plate appearances and more than half of them have a wRC+ below 70. Ryan McMahon’s performance is a particularly low lowlight; the third baseman has 39 strikeouts already thanks to an out-of-zone contact rate under 20%, a number so bananas that it looks like a programming glitch that proves our existence is actually a simulation.
ZiPS thought the Rockies would struggle in 2025, but not to this level. The system’s projection, for a mere 99 losses, even came with a (very) small chance of Colorado making the playoffs as a Wild Card team. After Thursday’s games, I did a full re-simulation of the 2025 season to get a projection for what the Rockies could achieve if they fail to get the wheels back on the cart:
ZiPS Win Projection – Colorado Rockies
Wins
Percentage
Cumulative
28
0.0%
0.0%
29
0.0%
0.0%
30
0.0%
0.0%
31
0.1%
0.1%
32
0.1%
0.2%
33
0.1%
0.3%
34
0.2%
0.5%
35
0.3%
0.7%
36
0.5%
1.2%
37
0.7%
1.8%
38
0.8%
2.7%
39
1.0%
3.7%
40
1.5%
5.2%
41
1.8%
7.0%
42
2.0%
8.9%
43
2.6%
11.5%
44
2.9%
14.4%
45
3.3%
17.7%
46
4.0%
21.7%
47
4.1%
25.8%
48
4.4%
30.2%
49
4.7%
34.9%
50
5.2%
40.1%
51
5.0%
45.0%
52
5.4%
50.4%
53
5.2%
55.6%
54
5.1%
60.7%
55
5.0%
65.7%
56
4.7%
70.4%
57
4.3%
74.7%
58
4.1%
78.8%
59
3.7%
82.5%
60
3.3%
85.7%
61
2.8%
88.5%
62
2.4%
91.0%
63
1.9%
92.9%
64
1.7%
94.6%
65
1.3%
95.9%
66
1.1%
97.1%
67
0.9%
97.9%
68
0.6%
98.6%
69
0.4%
99.0%
70
0.4%
99.4%
71
0.2%
99.6%
72
0.2%
99.8%
73
0.1%
99.9%
74
0.1%
99.9%
75
0.0%
100.0%
76
0.0%
100.0%
77
0.0%
100.0%
78
0.0%
100.0%
79
0.0%
100.0%
80
0.0%
100.0%
81
0.0%
100.0%
Naturally, the team’s small sliver of playoff probability has been wiped out by April. In the preseason projections, the Rockies only had a 1.5% chance of matching 121 losses and a 0.8% chance of setting a new record. So while the feat was at least plausible, it was a long shot. The odds are still strongly against — losing this many games is really hard — but seven and five percent are bonafide countin’ numbers.
Colorado’s biggest obstacle in the pursuit of infamy is that there are real reasons for hope when looking at the roster. As mentioned above, Márquez and Dollander have been terrible, but there is still at least some remaining chance that the former can get back to where he was, and the latter is an elite prospect. Michael Toglia is a Triple-A-caliber first baseman, not a pitcher dragooned into the lineup, and will surely fall short of his -6 WAR pace. Ezequiel Tovar is a better player than this, and guys like Zac Veen and Adael Amador have legitimate upside. The Rockies simply have a lot of saving throws that could lead to more positive outcomes this year. The start makes it possible that the Rockies will match the 2024 Sox for futility, but when you watch Colorado, your eyes aren’t physically forced to stare blurrily into middle distance at the Stygian maw, where nothing will give your frozen gaze succor from the dread of oblivion and Chris Davis‘ contract.
But hey, we still have the OGs, the White Sox, to look at. At 6-19, they’re a game and a half behind the Rockies for these purposes, but if ZiPS is to be believed, they’re a fundamentally worse roster. Chicago’s 52-110 projected record coming into the 2025 season is the worst projection ZiPS has ever given a team (not counting that article last year where I projected how Triple-A teams would fare in the majors):
ZiPS Win Projection – Chicago White Sox
Win
Percentage
Cumulative
28
0.0%
0.0%
29
0.1%
0.1%
30
0.1%
0.2%
31
0.2%
0.4%
32
0.3%
0.7%
33
0.4%
1.1%
34
0.6%
1.7%
35
0.9%
2.6%
36
1.3%
3.9%
37
1.5%
5.4%
38
1.9%
7.3%
39
2.4%
9.7%
40
2.8%
12.4%
41
3.4%
15.8%
42
3.7%
19.6%
43
4.1%
23.6%
44
4.7%
28.3%
45
5.1%
33.4%
46
5.3%
38.7%
47
5.5%
44.2%
48
5.4%
49.6%
49
5.3%
54.9%
50
5.1%
60.0%
51
5.0%
65.0%
52
4.7%
69.7%
53
4.4%
74.1%
54
4.2%
78.3%
55
3.7%
82.0%
56
3.2%
85.2%
57
2.9%
88.1%
58
2.5%
90.6%
59
2.0%
92.7%
60
1.6%
94.3%
61
1.5%
95.8%
62
1.2%
96.9%
63
0.8%
97.7%
64
0.7%
98.4%
65
0.5%
98.9%
66
0.4%
99.2%
67
0.3%
99.5%
68
0.2%
99.7%
69
0.1%
99.8%
70
0.1%
99.9%
71
0.0%
100.0%
72
0.0%
100.0%
73
0.0%
100.0%
74
0.0%
100.0%
75
0.0%
100.0%
76
0.0%
100.0%
77
0.0%
100.0%
78
0.0%
100.0%
79
0.0%
100.0%
80
0.0%
100.0%
81
0.0%
100.0%
ZiPS gives the White Sox a 16% chance of matching last year’s loss total and a 12% chance — better than the probability of an Aaron Judge homer — of besting it. Where the White Sox and Rockies differ in the pantheon of lousy teams is that the Sox are currently configured in a way that greatly limits their upside. For a rebuilding team, the starting lineup is surprisingly old and established; players like Nick Maton, Michael A. Taylor, and Matt Thaiss have a use as role players on a good team, but the ceiling on their performance is quite low. Currently injured players such as Josh Rojas and Mike Tauchman are in the same boat. The Sox have built a Triple-A-caliber team with a roster that looks like one. If you had been out of the country and behind on the baseball news and someone gave you a printout of this roster with “Charlotte Knights” at the top, would it immediately register as wrong?
That’s not to say there aren’t any players with upside. I actually like the return the Sox got for Garrett Crochet, and think that Kyle Teel, Chase Meidroth, and Braden Montgomery could all have futures in the majors. Shane Smith has been a highlight for me as a starter, and I’m totally digging Brandon Eisert’s hot start as a junk-tossing Doug Jones-esque reliever, an archetype you don’t see very often in modern baseball. But the prospects won’t be prominent quickly enough, and the interesting pitchers are too few, to give this team a real sense of short-term optimism.
There’s even a chance that both teams tie or set the record, with the Rockies and White Sox both at least tying the record in 1% of simulations and both beating the record in 0.6% of the runs. It’s too soon to known whether we’ll see a true Lossapalooza or merely two ordinarily lousy teams come September, but it’s fun to dream… darkly.
Kyle Freeland is scheduled to make his 206th start for the Colorado Rockies on Friday night, and when he does, he’ll tie Aaron Cook for the most in franchise history. The 31-year-old southpaw began building that number when he made his major league debut in April 2017. Three years earlier, he’d been drafted eighth overall by the NL West club out of the University of Evansville.
When our Rockies Top Prospects list was published in November 2016, Freeland was ranked no. 6 in a system that Eric Longenhagen then described as “both interesting and complex,” as well as excellent and underrated. Our lead prospect analyst assigned the lanky left-hander a 50 FV.
What did Freeland’s scouting report look like at that time? Moreover, what does he think of it all these years later? Wanting to find out, I shared some of what Eric wrote and asked Freeland to respond to it.
———
“Freeland missed a huge chunk of the 2015 season dealing with bone chips in his elbow and shoulder fatigue, and he looked bad in the Fall League when he returned.”
“That is completely inaccurate,” Freeland replied. “I led the Fall League in ERA. I was a Fall League All-Star. My first start was not good, but every start after that I was nails. Read the rest of this entry »
Nick Sandlin didn’t get his second save in as many games on Thursday. One day after breezing through three Boston batters on nine pitches, the Toronto right-hander was tagged with a loss after surrendering a pair of bottom-of-the-tenth-inning runs. The ending was anomalous. With the score tied, one out, the bases juiced, and the infield playing in, Sandlin induced a squibbed grounder that was mishandled, allowing a speedy Red Sox runner to score easily from third.
Making the walk-off unique was that Blue Jays second baseman Andrés Giménez, who had no chance to get the runner at home after bobbling the ball, threw to first for a meaningless out. The play went into the books as a 4-3. In other words, the game ended with the winning run crossing the plate on what looks like a routine groundout on the scorecard.
Which brings us to Sandlin, whom I’d decided to write about after his shutdown effort on Wednesday. Protecting a 2-1 lead in the 11th inning, the 28-year-old reliever fanned David Hamilton on three pitches, retired Rob Refsnyder on a pop foul to the catcher, then got Jarren Duran to slap a worm-killer to Giménez. Sandlin’s pitch breakdown comprised two splitters and seven sliders.
A sweeping slider is Sandlin’s bread and butter, and it’s what Refsnyder referenced when I asked him what makes the low-slot hurler so hard to hit. Read the rest of this entry »
Hunter Goodman isn’t going to chase forever. We’re not even two weeks into the season. All the players with .400 batting averages will come back down to earth, and so will Goodman and his 54.1% chase rate. That’s right, I said 54.1%. If you’re a pitcher who misses the strike zone, odds are Goodman will help you out by swinging anyway. Sports Info Solutions has been tracking pitches since 2002, and in that time, no qualified player has ever run a 50% chase rate over the course of a whole season. Hanser Alberto reached 54% during the short 2020 season and Ceddanne Rafaela gave it his best effort in 2024 with a 49.5% mark (just ahead of 2023 and 2025 Salvador Perez), but that’s it. Goodman won’t stay above 50% either, but he is on a record pace at the moment, and his 66.1% overall swing rate is even further ahead of Randall Simon’s all-time record of 63.6% in 2002.
I’m less interested in whether or not Goodman will set a record – he probably won’t – and more interested in what’s going on with him right now. Coming into the season, his career chase rate was 42.8%. That’s plenty high, and it included some nine-game stretches in which he at least approached this level. But for the most part, when he was chasing at an extreme rate, his performance cratered, just like you’d expect.
When the blue chase rate line went up, the red wRC+ line went down. But that seemed to change toward the end of the 2024 season. I don’t think it’ll last, but at the moment, Goodman is running a 109 wRC+ despite an appalling dereliction of discernment. It’s not necessarily that he can’t tell the difference between a ball and a strike. As I write this on Tuesday, there are still five qualified players who haven’t walked at all. Goodman is not one of them, nor is he one of the 149 players who’s swung at a pitch in the waste zone. Read the rest of this entry »
