The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Even as an amateur, Ian Kinsler spent most of his career in someone else’s shadow. At Canyon Del Oro High School in Tucson, Arizona — where he played on two state champion teams — and then at Central Arizona Junior College, he played alongside players who were picked much higher in the draft. After transferring to Arizona State, he lost the starting shortstop job to Dustin Pedroia, who had initially moved to second base to accommodate his arrival. With the Rangers, for whom he starred from 2006–13, he was a vital cog on two pennant winners but took a back seat to MVP Josh Hamilton, future Hall of Famer Adrian Beltré, and perennial All-Star shortstop Michael Young. Even after being dealt to the Tigers, he drew less attention than Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander, or Max Scherzer.

Particularly in the developmental phase of his career, those slights and oversights left Kinsler with a chip on his shoulder, but also a drive to improve — and improve he did. He starred at his third collegiate stop, the University of Missouri, helped the Rangers emerge as an American League powerhouse while making three All-Star teams, added another All-Star selection in Detroit and won two belated but well-earned Gold Gloves. His 48 leadoff home runs ranks sixth all-time. Twice he combined 30 homers and 30 steals in the same season, making him one of just 16 players with repeat membership in the 30-30 club. For the 2007–16 period, he ranked among the game’s most valuable players by WAR via a combination of excellent defense, very good baserunning, and above-average hitting. Read the rest of this entry »

For the 21st consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Detroit Tigers.

Batters

In a year with a few surprising playoff teams, the Tigers might have the best case to be called a Cinderella story. After a June swoon dropped them nearly 10 games below .500, the Tigers looked like a team playing for 2025, to the extent that with a losing record at the trade deadline, they traded away their second-best starter, Jack Flaherty. But a funny thing happened on the way to the MLB Draft Lottery: The Tigers suddenly started winning. Going 34-19 over the final two months was just enough to squeeze into the playoffs on the season’s final weekend. While Detroit eventually lost to the Guardians in the ALDS in five games, the Tigers did prevent the Houston Astros from reaching the ALCS, the first time that’s happened since 2016.

Looking at the lineup projections, one can see a big part of why A.J. Hinch would have been my pick for AL Manager of the Year, if I had voted in that category. The Tigers basically had one good offensive performance from a full-time player on their roster: Riley Greene. To get to basically being league average in terms of runs scored, the Tigers had to juggle a lot of players of incomplete value, with lots of platoons and matchup choices, in the way that Gabe Kapler ran the 2021 San Francisco Giants — though those Giants had a much better lineup.

But when the dust clears and you look at the projections rather than the 2024 accomplishments, there’s just a lot of average here. Some of the averageness has a lot of upside; there’s a good chance that Jace Jung will be a plus major leaguer, and if he’s over his early-2024 doldrums for good, Colt Keith will be too. Parker Meadows did enough to establish himself as a viable starter in center field. Kerry Carpenter’s a great big spoon in a DH platoon. Dillon Dingler and Jake Rogers are a quietly underrated catcher tandem. But after that, there are simply a lot of questions. ZiPS has no confidence in Wenceel Pérez, and the shortstops don’t combine for a very good projection even with the computer predicting some kind of, umm, bounce back from Javier Báez. The odds that Spencer Torkelson will become a foundational part of the lineup are a lot longer than they were a year ago.

This is a team that really needs to add another impact bat. There are a variety of spots in the lineup they can target, and players like Alex Bregman and Teoscar Hernández remain on the board. This is a team that has two years left before its Cy Young-winning ace Tarik Skubal reaches free agency, a team that plays in a division that has no big dogs; this is the perfect time to make a push. This is a team that could sign Bregman and Hernández and still be tens of millions of dollars below a $200 million luxury tax number. Jung and eventually Max Clark and Thayron Liranzo all project to be contributors in the majors, but 2025-2026 are too soon to realistically expect them to have star-level breakouts. There’s work to be done here.

Pitchers

Skubal projects as the best pitcher in the majors, so that’s a nice place to start. ZiPS is widely a believer in the rest of the rotation’s abilities, but not so much the rest of the rotation’s attendance. There’s a lot of injury risk in Alex Cobb, Casey Mize, and Reese Olson, and even Skubal’s just over a year removed from serious injury. Olson and Cobb both project with ERAs below four, Mize isn’t that far off, and Jackson Jobe, Keider Montero, and Matt Manning all project as legitimate starters in the majors. But how many innings will they get from this crew? That was a question that Hinch had to answer back in October, and he answered it by basically relying on Skubal and having the bullpen construct a Potemkin rotation behind him. That’s not a formula that can be repeated over 162 games. Maybe other needs and the possibility of extending Skubal prevent the Tigers from going after Corbin Burnes or pursuing a Flaherty reunion, but this is a team that just begs for a middling inning-eater. Kyle Gibson anyone? Really, the Tigers should give Justin Verlander the hard sell on one last season in Detroit to cap off his Hall of Fame career.

The bullpen, of course, projects to be terrific. What a change from a few years ago! The front four of Beau Brieske, Jason Foley, Tyler Holton, and Will Vest project to be as dominating a quartet as you’ll find right now, and Alex Lange will join them at some point later in the season, depending on his progress recovering from lat surgery. ZiPS also has a surprising fancy for Brant Hurter as a reliever. The only pitcher in the pen that the projections actually hate is Kenta Maeda, who struggled in 2024 before being exiled to the bullpen, where he was more passable. Given the work to be done elsewhere, I’m not sure the Tigers need to do much with the relievers but wish them a good holiday and look forward to their February return.

Right now, ZiPS projects the Tigers to be about a .500 team. A .500 team with some upside is a team to take seriously in the AL Central, and there’s still the theoretical possibility that the Tigers do more this winter.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.

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Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2025 due to injury, and players who were released in 2024. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Ukulele Dixieland Jazz band that only covers songs by The Smiths, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.11.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky.

The Detroit Tigers and the Minnesota Twins were two of the teams I focused on during last week’s Winter Meetings in Dallas. As such, I attended media sessions for the managers and top executives of both clubs, asking questions alongside reporters who cover the AL Central rivals on a regular basis. Here are some highlights from those exchanges.

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Derek Falvey on Griffin Jax:

“That’s a good question,” Minnesota’s president of baseball operations said when asked about the possibility of Jax, who logged a 1.94 FIP over 71 innings out of the Twins’ bullpen, becoming a starter. “It’s a conversation we had during the season [and] it carried through to the offseason. It’s a two-way dialogue. Griff has expressed some interest in exploring the idea, but at the same time, he wants to think about what the right next steps are for him and his career. We remain in contact with his agent, and with Griffin, about that… It remains to be determined.” Read the rest of this entry »

When addressing his team’s acquisition of Garrett Crochet at the Winter Meetings, Craig Breslow said that the 25-year-old southpaw’s relationship with the Red Sox’ analytics group will be important, so that he “can continue to understand how he can get the best out of his stuff.” I subsequently asked Boston’s Chief Baseball Officer if, based on their pre-trade homework, they have identified any specific adjustments Crochet might want to make, or if they plan to mostly just let him keep doing what he does.

“I think the answer is probably both,” replied Breslow. “Right? We want to lean into what he does particularly well, and he does a lot of things really, really well. You look at the strikeouts, and especially the strikeouts relative to the walks; that’s a pretty good underpinning for a really successful starting pitcher. Once we have a chance to get to know him, have conversations with him, we’ll lean on [pitching coach Andrew Bailey] and the rest of the group. But it’s probably not fair to talk about what adjustments we might make before we’ve had a chance to have that conversation with him.”

Crochet is looking forward to the conversation. He expects it to take place in the coming week, and he’ll go into it with thoughts he’s been formulating since last summer. When I talked to Crochet in late August, he spoke of usage percentages and how he’d begun tinkering with a sinker. I reminded him of that earlier exchange when he met with the Boston media over Zoom on Friday, then proceeded to ask about his forthcoming discussions with the Red Sox pitching department. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

The fourth and final multi-candidate pairing of this series is by far the heaviest, covering two candidates who have both been connected to multiple incidents of domestic violence. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Before Joe Mauer began starring for the Twins, there was Torii Hunter, and before Chase Utley began starring for the Phillies, there was Jimmy Rollins. Hunter, a rangy, acrobatic center fielder who eventually won nine Gold Gloves and made five All-Star teams, debuted with Minnesota in 1997 and emerged as a star in 2001, the same year the Twins chose Mauer with the number one pick of the draft. The pair would play together from 2004 to ’07, making the playoffs twice before Hunter departed in free agency. Rollins, a compact shortstop who carried himself with a swagger, debuted in 2001 and made two All-Star teams by the time he and Utley began an 11-year run (2004–14) as the Phillies’ regular double play combination. The pair helped Philadelphia to five NL East titles, two pennants, and a championship, with Rollins winning NL MVP honors in 2007 and taking home four Gold Gloves.

Hunter and Rollins both enjoyed lengthy and impressive careers, racking up over 2,400 hits apiece with substantial home run and stolen base totals. From a Hall of Fame perspective, both have credentials that appeal more to traditionally minded voters than to statheads, but in their time on the ballot, they’ve gotten little traction. Hunter debuted with 9.5% in 2021 but has yet to match that since, finishing with 7.3% on the ’24 ballot. Rollins debuted with 9.4% in 2022 and has gained a little ground in each cycle since, with 14.8% in ’24. Both have been outdistanced by their former teammates, whose advanced statistics are much stronger despite comparatively short careers; Mauer was elected this past January, while Utley debuted with 28.8%, nearly double Rollins’ share. Still, it appears that this pair will persist on the ballot for awhile, with enough support for us to keep reliving their careers and discussing their merits on an annual basis. There are far worse fates for Hall of Fame candidates. Read the rest of this entry »

DALLAS — The dawn of a new baseball season brings relief from the monotony of winter, hope for a successful campaign, and a multitude of questions in the vein of “Wait, where did Player X sign? How long has Player Y been on the Rays?”

In a (possibly vain) effort to head off those questions, here are some developments from the Winter Meetings: Alex Cobb has signed a one-year contract with the Detroit Tigers for $15 million, with an additional $2 million available through incentives. The details of the contract took a while to come out as Cobb took a physical; that’s a pro forma step in your garden variety free agent signing, but likely an adventure for Cobb. More straightforward: The Toronto Blue Jays have agreed to a two-year, $15 million pact with right-handed reliever Yimi García.

Both Cobb and García changed teams at the most recent trade deadline; in fact, García was traded by Toronto less than five months ago. Read the rest of this entry »

The Cleveland Guardians are a pretty tightfisted organization. They spend infrequently, frugally, and deliberately. So I was amused when, some three weeks ago, they jumped to re-sign backup catcher Austin Hedges to a one-year, $4 million contract. That’s roughly 4% of what the Guardians spent on player payroll in total this past season — and on a backup catcher?

Now, Hedges is one of the league’s best defenders, at the position where defense is of the utmost performance. And by all accounts he’s the best clubhouse guy since Spanky from The Little Rascals. But he’s the worst hitter in the league. That’s not an exaggeration; Hedges hasn’t posted a wRC+ over 50 since 2018, and in his past two seasons he hasn’t broken 25.

Since 2019, Hedges is hitting .171/.234/.273. Of the 364 players who have taken 1,000 or more plate appearances over that time, Hedges is dead last in wRC+ by a huge margin. Jackie Bradley Jr. is in second-to-last place with a wRC+ of 67; Hedges is at 39. (Which speaks to how far you can get in baseball if you’re an elite defender and everyone likes you.) Read the rest of this entry »

Tyler Holton got a 10th-place vote in American League MVP balloting, and as you might expect, social media reacted like social media is wont to do. Responses to the news leaned negative, with a number of people saying that they had have never even heard of him. Some were disrespectfully profane, offering variations of “Who the [expletive] is Tyler Holton?”

Needless to say, not everyone who posts on social media platforms is an especially-knowledgeable baseball fan. Which is perfectly fine. There are many different levels of fandom, so if you mostly just know the big names — the Judges, the Sotos, the Witts — all well and good. Follow the game as you see fit.

Those things said, it is high time that more people become familiar with Holton. Much for that reason, Toronto Star columnist Mike Wilner doesn’t deserve the brickbats he’s received for his down-ballot nod to the 28-year-old Detroit Tigers southpaw. What he deserves is applause. And not just because he was willing to go outside the box. Holton has quietly been one of MLB’s most effective pitchers.

The numbers tell part of the story. Read the rest of this entry »

The team that signs Nick Pivetta this offseason will be getting a veteran starter who, as my colleague Ben Clemens stated in our 2025 Top 50 Free Agents rundown, has “long been a favorite of pitching models.” The team will also be getting someone who believes in pitching to his strengths. The 31-year-old right-hander is studious about his craft, but with a notable exception. Poring over scouting reports isn’t his cup of tea.

“I think about it not as a specific hitter, but more of, ‘Is he a lefty or a righty?,’” explained Pivetta, whose past four-plus seasons have been with the Boston Red Sox. “I have certain sequences that I do against lefties or righties. I do the same sequences against either side, no matter the hitter.”

That’s not to say he totally ignores weaknesses. As Pivetta told me in our last-weekend-of-the-season conversation, there are certain hitters who struggle with a particular pitch and/or location, so he might vary his “same game plan around a certain spot.” But for the most part, he is “doing the exact same thing over and over again, just trying to execute.”

The extent to which that is optimal is open for debate. As his 50 Free Agents blurb spells out, Pivetta’s numbers suggest that he has never reached — and perhaps not even approached — his full potential. The stuff is unquestionably plus, but the consistency has clearly been lacking.

The Victoria, British Columbia native has pitched more than 1,000 innings over eight big-league seasons, so opposing teams have a pretty good idea of what to expect when he takes the mound. Moreover, certain lineups will present, at least on paper, a greater challenge for his pitch mix and standard attack plan. Might adherence to advance reports be a meaningful advantage add? Read the rest of this entry »