The trend in baseball is unmistakably one towards shorter starts. Pitchers compiled the fewest complete games in major-league history last year. That beat a record-low mark set the previous season, which itself had beaten a record-low established the year before that. Relievers are throwing a higher percentage of innings the ever before. Starters are, by definition, throwing fewer. The 200-inning starter is disappearing.

If his actions from this past weekend are any indication, Minnesota’s Jose Berrios seems not to care for this development. On Sunday, the young right-hander pitched a shutout, going the full nine innings while fanning six batters and conceding just three hits — and only of them prior to the ninth inning. (I’m not sure if I’m obligated to mention the Chance Sisco bunt against the shift and Brian Dozier’s odd reaction, but please consider this parenthetical as fulfillment of that obligation.) For a Twins team hoping to repeat the successes of last season, a lot hinges on the success of Berrios. He and the team got off to an awfully good start in their series win over the Baltimore Orioles.

Before getting to Berrios’s start, here is another reminder about how the game of baseball has changed over the years, particularly when it comes to bullpen use and expectations for starting pitchers. The graph below shows the number of shutouts by year since the advent of the designated hitter in 1973.

Just 25 years ago, there was pretty close to a shutout per day during the MLB regular season. A combination of expansion and the PED era greatly increased the use of relief pitchers. Coupled with increased offense, it was incredibly difficult for a starter to navigate a full game without letting the opposition score. In the early part of the last decade, as scoring decreased, we would still see a shutout every two or three days. As offense has again risen the last few years, however, shutouts have dropped — to about one per week last season.

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Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the Eugenio Suarez and Jose Altuve extensions, whether this offseason’s slow free-agent market will make players more likely to sign extensions, the industry’s latest effort to avoid paying minor leaguers, and the debate about where Shohei Ohtani should start the season, then preview the 2018 Twins (18:52) with Baseball Prospectus’s Aaron Gleeman, and the 2018 Rangers (56:45) with The Athletic DFW’s Levi Weaver.

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To the overwhelming majority of baseball fans, the name Willians Astudillo means nothing. The 26-year-old has never been called up to the majors, and for three years in a row now, he’s elected free agency and signed a minor-league contract. Astudillo is there in spring training right now, but so are countless professional players you’d never recognize at the next table in a restaurant. Most people don’t know Willians Astudillo. Most people will never know Willians Astudillo. But there are those out there who know exactly who he is. Astudillo has a claim to being the single most interesting player in the minors.

Astudillo has yet to strike out this spring. Over the winter he batted 223 times in Venezuela, and he struck out on just four occasions. He struck out less often than a teammate who came to the plate just eight times. This is the Astudillo story. Out of the thousands of players in the minors in 2017, Astudillo had the third-lowest strikeout rate, and the lowest strikeout rate in Triple-A. He had the lowest strikeout rate in the minors in 2016. He had the lowest strikeout rate in the minors in 2015. He had the second-lowest strikeout rate in the minors in 2014. He apparently didn’t play in 2013, but in 2012, and in 2011, and in 2010, he had the lowest strikeout rate in the minors. Astudillo doesn’t strike out. Astudillo also doesn’t walk, and he has a limited track record of hitting for power, but he doesn’t strike out. As a professional, Astudillo has 67 strikeouts in 2,154 plate appearances. Joey Gallo recorded his 67th major-league strikeout in his 140th plate appearance.

For his ability to make contact alone, Astudillo has won himself some fans. But now, he also has another claim to fame. Although Astudillo has moved around, he is still considered a catcher. And, the other day, in a spring game, he picked off Shane Robinson without looking.

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The Minnesota Twins continued a productive offseason over the weekend, signing Lance Lynn to a bargain-rate one-year, $12 million deal. Lynn turned down a $17.4 million qualifying offer from the Cardinals in November. He also reportedly turned down higher guarantees from other teams, per Jon Morosi. 

Not clear regarding those other offers is whether the average annual values of the contracts would have been equivalent or if Lynn would have had to forfeit the opportunity to explore free agency next offseason in exchange for a few extra million dollars. Whatever the case, it appears as though Lance Lynn will have to try his hand at free agency next winter if his ambition is to find a long-term home.

As for the Twins, they get great value on a player seemingly overlooked by the market. Indeed, the club seems to have specialized in this sort of deal over the winter. Heading into the offseason, for example, the crowd believed Addison Reed was in line for $27 million, the third-highest guarantee among relievers behind only the figures estimated for Wade Davis and Greg Holland. Reed ultimately agreed to join the Twins for just $16.75 million in mid-January — or less than the overall deals received by seven other relievers who’d signed at that point in the offseason.

The addition of Logan Morrison represents another instance in which the Twins have taken advantage of a slow market. The crowd expected Morrison to sign for $20 million. At the end of February, however, Derek Falvey et al. signed him for just one-third that amount.

Finally, there’s Lynn. Projected by the crowd to receive $60 million over four seasons, the right-hander settled for 20% of that figure. When the offseason began, it was reasonable to think that the Twins would need to guarantee $107 million to acquire all three players mentioned here. With just $35.25 million, though, the club signed the trio at a rate discounted by 67% from initial estimates.

The Twins’ bargain-shopping was not limited to free agency: the team also took on Jake Odorizzi and his $6.3 million salary in exchange for a prospect of little significance. Odorizzi went to the Twins not because of their willingness to provide Tampa Bay with considerable talent but because they were willing to pay his salary.

There are some logical explanations for the Twins’ apparent good fortune. For example, all the players acquired by the club come with significant question marks, and none are currently projected to provide more than two wins this season. That said, each possesses some kind of upside and a relatively recent track record of success. The combined five wins the club is projected to receive will cost just $33 million in 2018 salaries. Given the recent cost of wins on the free-agent market, the Twins’ efficiency should be lauded. More important than getting a good deal, though, they have also obtained solid major leaguers at areas of need.

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Since Byron Buxton arrived in the majors, observers have wondered if he’s going to hit. The concern there is valid, but it also misses the point, because Byron Buxton is already special. He’s already a better hitter than Billy Hamilton is, and if the bat moves further along, the Twins will have a superstar. Yet even with Buxton as what he presently is, he’s the envy of many opponents. The non-hitting skills are where Buxton stands out.

He’s a clear Statcast favorite, because of his league-leading sprint speed, and because of his league-leading outs above average. Buxton’s in the conversation for the most valuable defender on the planet, and Twins pitchers have basically given him credit for saving their most recent season. That speed, though, also helps elsewhere. According to our metric, Buxton was 2017’s most valuable baserunner. He ranked third in baseball in stolen-base value, fifth in double-play value, and seventh in all the rest. Buxton, of course, relies on his speed. But he also benefits from good baseball instincts and big-league experience. Buxton just ran with more confidence than ever, and his baserunning season was just about perfect. I’ll tell you what I mean.

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In December, Twins slugger Miguel Sano was accused of violently assaulting a photographer, Betsy Bissen. Sano has unequivocally denied the allegations. But the report of the incident led to an investigation by Major League Baseball under the “Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy” and “Joint Treatment Program for Alcohol-Related and Off-Field Violent Conduct” in the CBA. On February 27, as part of that investigation, Major League Baseball investigators interviewed Sano for four hours.

The entire process has set off something of a free-for-all on the internet, with people taking sides between Sano and his accuser, throwing around terms like “sexual assault” and “due process.” Under such fraught circumstances, however, precision in one’s language is ideal. So let’s try to clear up some of the confusion.

There’s been a debate regarding whether Sano has been accused of sexual assault, simple assault, or something else entirely. Again, this is not to say that Sano is guilty of any offense. However, it’s probably worth asking the question: assuming Sano actually did what he is accused of, what law would it violate? As for the answer, it really depends upon the state in which the incident has occurred, because there is actually a pretty big disparity between states as to what constitutes a sexual assault.

In this case, we’re looking at Minnesota law. I’m a civil litigation attorney, not a criminal attorney, and we’re dealing with issues here where it’s really important to get the law right. So I spoke with a Minnesota private criminal defense attorney, Erica E. Davis, Esq. from Davis and Egberg, PLLC in Minneapolis, to get her thoughts.

Davis believes, at the very least, that Sano “could clearly be charged” with misdemeanor assault. Under Minnesota law, “assault” is “(1) an act done with intent to cause fear in another of immediate bodily harm or death; or (2) the intentional infliction of or attempt to inflict bodily harm upon another.” Here, we’d probably be talking about misdemeanor assault in the fifth degree under Minn. Stat. § 609.224. Davis said that, for purposes of this statute, if we assume the allegations are true, Sano “clearly caused [Bissen] bodily harm.” She emphasized Bissen’s allegations that her wrist hurt the next day and that she repeatedly told Sano she didn’t want to go with him.

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Position: Baseball Systems Developer

Description:
The Minnesota Twins are seeking a Full Stack Software Developer to join the Baseball Research and Development group. This position offers wide-ranging exposure to current programming methods and frameworks in a fast-paced agile environment. With creativity and passion, this candidate will collaborate with the Baseball Operations staff to develop, deliver, and maintain data driven solutions for player evaluation, player development, and leading-edge baseball research. This position requires strong full stack web development skills and experience as well as a demonstrated ability for independent curiosity and a commitment to excellence while working within a team framework. Strong communication and interpersonal skills will enable the candidate to enjoy direct relationships with product users.

Essential Functions:

• Work closely with all groups within the Baseball Department including Baseball Operations, Scouting, Coaching, and Player Development to develop, maintain, and expand strategic web and mobile baseball applications.
• Design and develop web services and APIs to be consumed by web and mobile applications.
• Create easy to understand interfaces and reports with data visualizations that showcase data and analysis in a creative and effective way for a variety of different users and use cases.
• Use an agile software development approach for quick roll-outs combined with incremental improvement process to existing systems and environments.
• Work closely with Infrastructure team to ensure secure, scalable, and high-performing applications.
• Provide courteous and timely first-level contact and problem resolution for all Baseball Department users with application issues.

Technical Qualifications:

• Bachelor’s Degree in Computer Science, Computer Engineering, or a related field or equivalent work experience.
• Software development experience, including requirements definition, design, development, testing, implementation, and iterative improvement.
• Full stack experience with Angular, JavaScript/TypeScript, HTML, CSS, .NET, ASP.NET, Entity Framework, C#, and API design patterns preferred.
• Experience with SQL, relational databases, and database design.
• Familiarity with data visualization and graphical packages such as Tableau, Power BI, D3.js, or ggplot is a plus.
• Mobile development experience a plus.
• Strong work ethic, initiative, and problem-solving skills.
• Interest in optimizing user experience through effective UI/UX design.
• Understand software development best practices and long-term maintainability of code.
• Strong curiosity and interest in researching and learning new technologies as needed.

Requirements:

• 2-5+ years of relevant work experience.
• Knowledge of baseball player evaluation techniques and concepts.
• Ability to relocate to the Twins Cities area.

To Apply:
To apply visit www.twinsbaseball.com/jobopportunities and look for the Baseball Systems Developer position.

When the Angels selected Luke Bard in December’s Rule 5 draft, they acquired a pitcher who is stylistically different than the right-hander Minnesota took in the first round of the 2012 amateur draft. The younger brother of former Red Sox flamethrower Daniel Bard is no longer looking to induce ground balls. He’s looking to blow away hitters with belt-high heaters.

He did plenty of that last year between Double-A Chattanooga and Triple-A Rochester. Armed with his new data-driven attack plan, Bard augmented his 2.76 ERA with 99 punch outs in 65.1 innings of relief work. His 13.6 K/9 far exceeded his previous personal best, which was a pedestrian 8.1 against Low-A hitters in 2015.

What prompted the change from sinkerballer to power pitcher? The 27-year-old Georgia Tech product learned that he has elite spin rate. As a result, his two-seamer is now in his back pocket and his modus operandi is four-seam explosion.

Whether or not he remains an Angel, or ends up being offered back to the Twins, remains to be seen. Either way, Bard has evolved, and he has Statcast to thank.

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Luke Bard: “I was a sinkerball pitcher all through college and for my first several years of pro ball, and I got a lot of ground balls, but I never got the swings and misses. I would see guys who didn’t throw as hard as me and go, ‘How are they getting swings and misses on their fastball?’ Then I started learning about spin rate and realized I was throwing high-spin sinkers. Read the rest of this entry »

Logan Morrison is signing with the Twins. It’s a one-year guarantee, worth $6.5 million, but there’s also an $8-million vesting option for 2019. Morrison turns 31 years old in August. It’s only natural to compare him to Yonder Alonso. Alonso turns 31 years old in April. He signed a couple months ago with the Indians, for a two-year guarantee, worth $16 million. There’s also a $9-million vesting option for 2020. Within the same market, Alonso did a little better than Morrison did. Maybe that’s not surprising — they’re different players! But then, are they, really?

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Last March, I approached Jake Odorizzi in the Tampa Bay Rays’ spring-training clubhouse to learn more about the cult of the high fastball he was leading among the club’s pitchers.

The Rays led baseball in 2016 by the volume of four-seamers thrown up in the zone. The reason: to negate the effect of swing planes more and more designed to damage pitches lower in the zone. The Rays were again one of the dominant high-fastball teams last season, ranking second in the sport by volume and percentage of fastballs located in the upper third and above the zone according to Statcast data via Baseball Savant. (They ranked 14th in spin rate.)

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