Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Chicago White Sox farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen
The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell
Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOS, NYY, TB, TOR)
70 FV Prospects
Signed: July 2nd Period, null from Cuba
| Age |
22 |
Height |
6’2 |
Weight |
205 |
Bat/Throw |
B/R |
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
| Hit |
Raw Power |
Game Power |
Run |
Fielding |
Throw |
| 30/60 |
60/60 |
40/60 |
70/70 |
40/50 |
70/70 |
Relevant/Interesting Metrics
31% K% in 207 Triple-A plate appearances
Scouting Report
I believe Yoan Moncada to be the best prospect in all of baseball despite his swing-and-miss issues, though I understand why many are concerned about them and acknowledge they exist as does some element of risk with Moncada’s overall profile. But from a tools standpoint, this is a generational talent who possesses perhaps the most robust collection of skills in the minor leagues.
Moncada has an SEC running back’s body at an athletic and strong 6-foot-2, 205 pounds. There are very few, if any, comparable physiques across baseball. He’s also a plus-plus runner, both from home to first and on the bases, scattering large swaths of dirt behind him as he traverses the bases. I think Moncada is going to retain that speed for quite a while despite already appearing to have maxed out physically. Even if he does lose a step with age (and it will probably happen at some point), I expect Moncada to retain impact plus speed into his late 20s or early 30s, even if he’s no longer an elite runner at peak.
That speed is going to give Chicago some room to consider Moncada’s defensive options. His performance at second base was mixed throughout his tenure with Boston. He certainly has the physical capability to play the position easily. His range and arm strength (an easy 70 on the scouting scale) are both more than enough to play anywhere on the infield, but his work around the bag, general defensive footwork, and sometimes awkward arm action have all led to some inexcusable miscues that most scouts hope will be ironed out with time and reps.
Moncada is now 21 and some of those defensive hiccups were prevalent throughout his tenure in the Arizona Fall League, where Moncada continued his late-season transition to third base. I believe, with time and instruction, that he’ll be fine at either second or third, though some scouts are less enamored of his feel for the infield and would like to see him tried in center field, where he has the raw physical ability to be a plus defender. A source with Chicago told me the current plan is to have him begin next season at second base.
Regardless of where Moncada ends up on the defensive spectrum, his offensive capabilities are going to profile there. He generates plus-plus bat speed from the left side and is able to hit for opposite-field power despite a swing geared for low-ball contact, something I don’t recall seeing from a prospect before. His bat control is mediocre right now, and I think this is part of why he has struck out so much (30% of the time at Triple-A, 60% in a short big-league stint) during his career. Moncada’s swing from the right side is more conservative, a bit more stiff than his cut from the left side, and lacks big extension. He’s more strength than bat speed as a right-handed hitter but still has plus raw power from that side.
Even with a worse-than-average strikeout rate factored into his hit tool’s grade, I think Moncada is a future plus hitter because, when he does connect, he’s vaporizing baseballs into play and his career-long BABIP and ISO are evidence of that. I think it’s reasonable to say Moncada’s career BABIP rate will rest, at the very least, comfortably above the league-average .300 mark when you factor in his speed and the quality of contact he makes when he does connect.
Moncada is not a finished product, but the raw material is the most impressive in baseball. I think with time he’ll be one of baseball’s best players.
KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 14.0 WAR
60 FV Prospects
Drafted: 1st Round, 2012 from Harvard Westlake (CA)
| Age |
22 |
Height |
6’6 |
Weight |
255 |
Bat/Throw |
R/R |
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
| Fastball |
Slider |
Curveball |
Changeup |
Command |
| 60/60 |
30/40 |
60/70 |
45/50 |
40/50 |
Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Was either promoted to MLB or shuttled to another level of the minors 8 different times throughout 2016
Scouting Report
The once Prodigious Lucas Giolito has more recently become the Enigmatic Lucas Giolito. While he remains one of baseball’s best pitching prospects after an inconsistent 2016, Giolito is no longer head-and-shoulders the game’s best. The opinions of scouts who saw Giolito this year make for an interesting collage of hope, fear, tempered expectations and patience, but all agree that front-end starter upside is still extant, if a bit less likely.
That kind of upside has been apparent since Giolito’s days at Harvard-Westlake, where, before suffering a season-ending elbow injury that would later require Tommy John surgery, he was generating potential 1-1 buzz and had a legitimate chance to become the first right-handed high-school pitcher ever taken with the draft’s first pick.
Giolito was bumping 100 with his fastball at the time. Of course, many high-school pitchers lose velocity in pro ball after being subjected to increased season-long workloads and fewer off days. Despite the occasional 98-plus from Giolito, he generally sat 93-97 in pro looks before the end of 2016 when, even out of the bullpen, he was sitting 92-94 and merely touching 96.
That’s still plus velocity, and some scouts who saw Giolito later in the year noted an increase in sink/run on his fastball and thought that maybe an increased usage of the two-seamer had led to a minor dip in velo. However, Giolito’s big-league fastball spin rate (a below-average 2000 rpm) showed almost no change between his mid-year debut and his September appearances.
It would make sense for Washington to have explored some fastball variation because, even in the minors, Giolito’s heater wasn’t missing many bats. It has grounder-inducing plane, a product of Giolito’s functionally vertical arm slot, but lacks consistent horizontal movement, only showing it regularly when Giolito is running the ball off the hip of left-handed hitters. Giolito’s tendency to work up in the zone with a fastball that features very little spin has been detrimental. If he can more readily work down in the zone (this could unlocked with a mechanical tweak, something for which some have advocated even without this in mind, because they don’t love the delivery from a health standpoint, especially given the medical history here), the fastball will play as plus.
Giolito’s out pitch is his curveball, a low-80s hammer with more depth than Jacques Cousteau could handle. It’s easily a plus pitch right now and is frequently a 70 on the scouting scale. You could argue it projects to an 80 if Giolito learns how to locate it just beneath the strike zone with regularity and can throw it for strikes without sacrificing arm speed (he decelerates when he’s getting the curve over for strikes right now). Despite a pretty long arm action, Giolito has a solid changeup. He sells it with his fastball’s arm speed, and he has decent feel for movement. It’s consistently average right now and projects above. I think there’s less changeup projection here than there would be with other arms this talented and young (Giolito is only 22) because of the length of the arm action.
Late in the year, Giolito was also working with a below-average slider in the 83-85 range that had very inconsistent shape and bite. It’s hard to say if we’ll see the slider next year, as many — correctly, it would seem — think Chicago should prioritize the development of Giolito’s command rather than have him worrying about a fourth pitch.
Indeed the control/command profile is the most impactful variable associated with Giolito’s future. When locating, Giolito is positively lethal. He often isn’t locating, however, and we’ll need to see a full grade’s worth of progression on the command/control if Giolito is to even remain a starter. Of course, if the command ever comes — especially if it supersedes my projection and allows his stuff to play — then will be a top-of-the-rotation arm. The medical history, drop in velo and command all contribute to the risk profile.
55 FV Prospects
Drafted: 1st Round, 2014 from Mt Pleasant HS (TX)
| Age |
21 |
Height |
6’3 |
Weight |
195 |
Bat/Throw |
R/R |
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
| Fastball |
Slider |
Changeup |
Command |
| 70/70 |
50/60 |
45/60 |
30/45 |
Relevant/Interesting Metrics
40% K% in 11 starts at Hi-A
Scouting Report
I saw Kopech several times during the Arizona Fall League (to which he was sent after dealing with injuries this season), and he’s an incredible physical specimen with some of the most exceptional raw talent of any pitcher in the minor leagues. During my looks at Kopech this fall, he sat 96-100, touching 101 with some of the most incredible arm acceleration I’ve ever seen from a pitching prospect. His arm action is explosive, though not always well timed, and his arm sometimes is finishing its part of the delivery before the rest of his body is.
The overall timing and inconsistent pacing of Kopech’s delivery are what I believe to be the chief cause of his strike-throwing inconsistency to this point, though he sometimes lands off line relative to the plate as well. Despite some effort to the delivery (he throws 100, there’s going to be some effort), there are no real mechanical red flags that indicate long-term strike-throwing issues, no overly violent delivery that seems impossible to iron out. Even if Kopech’s velocity backs down to the 94-98 range under a full-season workload, the fact that he could conceivably command that kind of velocity is kind of terrifying.
Kopech’s secondaries are raw but promising. He has poor feel for locating his slider right now, but the pitch flashes plus in the 86-90 mph range and has atypical two-plane movement for a pitch at that velocity when he’s locating down and to his glove side. It projects to plus. His changeup, 91-93 in my viewings, flashes above average despite essentially being an average fastball, because hitters are geared up for 96-plus and see arm speed that indicates that sort of velo out of Kopech’s hand. It also projects to plus and could end up being Kopech’s best pitch.
There’s obviously a non-zero chance that Kopech, despite his athleticism and young age, never throws enough strikes to start; many scouts with whom I’ve spoken think he ends up in a bullpen, where he’d be a high-octane freak. His off-field issues concern scouts, too. Kopech lost six weeks of his season after fracturing his hand in a March fight with a teammate and missed 50 games in 2015 due to an amphetamine suspension. He carries a bit more risk than a pitching prospect of this caliber otherwise would, which is already a substantial amount of risk due to the velo. I think the ceiling here is that of a No. 2 or 3 starter.
KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 7.7 WAR
50 FV Prospects
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic
| Age |
23 |
Height |
6’0 |
Weight |
185 |
Bat/Throw |
R/R |
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
| Fastball |
Curveball |
Changeup |
Command |
| 70/70 |
55/60 |
40/50 |
45/50 |
Relevant/Interesting Metrics
42 K’s, 22 BB’s in 44 big league innings
Scouting Report
Also included in the Adam Eaton deal wass fireballing righty Reynaldo Lopez, who has also touched 100 with his fastball during his pro career. Lopez’s viability as a starter has also been questioned due to his size, delivery and command. I think he has a decent chance to remain a starter. Despite measuring in at an even 6-feet, he’s built well, especially in the torso, and has made a concerted effort to stay strong after losing almost all of his 2013 season to a dead arm. He has great arm acceleration and fairly safe arm action, especially for an undersized pitcher with a fastball in the 94-98 range. There’s some skepticism about the lower half’s strength and its involvement in Lopez’s delivery. His finish can be unbalanced, and his delivery is more driven by his hips than a combination of rotation and push off the mound, which causes him to throw across his body.
Some scouts don’t like the way the delivery impacts the command and others think it’s a harbinger of medical doom. Lopez doesn’t operate like four seaming surgeon but at least lives in and around the strike zone and his stuff is good enough to allow for some margin of error when he misses his spots. I’m less concerned about him throwing an acceptable number of strikes (he’s never had a high walk rate) than I am about his future ability to stay healthy, though I’ll acknowledge scouting deliveries and trying gauge injury likelihood is an exercise in futility.
Lopez’s stuff plays as a starter, too. His curveball, a slurvy 78-81 mph offering, is above average and projects to plus — though it was a 45/50 for me at the Futures Game, where Lopez wasn’t really getting on top of it very well — and Lopez can consistently locate it to his glove side, away from where hitters can touch it. He’s already using it effectively as a weapon down and in against left-handed hitters.
His upper-80s changeup has barely been worked into his repertoire and is below average. I have it projected aggressively to average because of Lopez’s arm speed, though you could argue the arm action limits it to a half grade short of that.
I think Lopez has No. 3-starter upside and, having already debuted in the majors, a relatively modest risk profile despite some dissent about his viability as a starter. That risk profile includes the concerns about the delivery that, coupled with a chance the MLB hitters adjust to his somewhat wild approach to pitching, might limit his ability to eat innings and accumulate value.
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Miami
| Age |
22 |
Height |
6’3 |
Weight |
220 |
Bat/Throw |
L/R |
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
| Hit |
Raw Power |
Game Power |
Run |
Fielding |
Throw |
| 30/40 |
60/60 |
40/60 |
30/20 |
40/45 |
50/50 |
Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Posted .544 OBP at Miami in 2016.
Scouting Report
A trusted scout has repeated to me ad nauseum that context is an essential variable to consider when evaluating catchers, particularly those who have played long seasons. Collins looked bad behind the plate in the Fall League. He was slow, immobile, and had issues receiving the ball. He was also wrapping up a season that had begun in February and included 66% more games than he’d played at Miami as a sophomore — all while catching an entirely new staff of pitchers. As such, it seems prudent to ingest what we saw in the AFL with a pillar of salt and lean more heavily on what amateur scouts saw from him this spring.
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