Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat – 6/4/2020

Craig Edwards: Let’s get things rolling.

Craig Edwards: Today, I wrote about MLBs decision not to respond the player’s offer: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mlb-takes-unusual-negotiating-tack/

Craig Edwards: Here’s what I wrote about the player proposal when they made it: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/players-union-counters-mlb-proposal-with-m…

Craig Edwards: and I’m still asking for your help regarding what the 2020 season will look like. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-optimistic-are-you-that-the-2020-seaso…

The Stranger: Craig, what’s your opinion on whether the owners can unilaterally decide on a 50-game season? As they’ve reminded us, the March agreement is for play to resume when there are no restrictions on large gatherings which I’m assuming won’t happen soon in several states with MLB teams. Couldn’t the players use that as the basis for objecting to such a move by the owners, in addition to all the safety/testing elements that they haven’t agreed to? Setting aside the PR impact of the players reusing to play on that basis, that is. I agree (or am hopeful) this is most likely a negotiating tactic, but I’m curious if they can even do what they’re saying.

Craig Edwards: For background, from the piece: According to the agreement, it is up to MLB to propose season length:
using best efforts to play as many games as possible, while taking into account player safety and health, rescheduling needs, competitive considerations, stadium availability, and the economic feasibility of various alternatives.

Craig Edwards: It’s hard to say what can be done unilaterally given that safety concerns in the agreement haven’t been met, but it is up to MLB to propose a schedule. If they are going to say the season is 50 games, show up, that also means there isn’t expanded playoffs.

Craig Edwards: any other things the players have proposed also wouldn’t be on the table anymore.

The Stranger: And a follow-up: if MLB tries to dictate a 50-game season and the players refuse and the 2020 season doesn’t happen, who wins the inevitable lawsuit over the service time provisions of the March agreement?

Craig Edwards: There are still enough safety issues that the agreement would simply hold as is. Players keep their advance and get their service time and agree not to sue for full pay.

Trent Hauser: Where can I find info on teams’ media rights deals?

Trent Hauser: Where might I find info on stadium funding?

Craig Edwards: Here’s something I wrote on tv deals earlier this year: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-update-the-estimated-local-tv-revenue…

Craig Edwards: If you want information on stadium funding, I think Neil de Mause is a pretty good resource: http://www.fieldofschemes.com/

Zaque: Give me a hot take on Timo Werner signing with Chelsea.

Craig Edwards: What does this mean for Pulisic? I don’t really care otherwise.

MB: Do you have any book recommendations that are more modern day Moneyball like?

Craig Edwards: I’d be remiss if didn’t mention Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel’s book Future Value.

Pumpsie Green: In a 70-game season, what ratio would you like to see for NL-AL games? 20 vs the other league and 50 vs your own?

Craig Edwards: So that would be four games each against cross-division and then 12.5 against your own division, assuming you aren’t going out of region. that’s about right, probably.

Chris: Tampa Bay rays #slowclap

Craig Edwards: They made the rare good tweet.

Matt: Any more/less optimistic than you were a week ago about a season happening?

Craig Edwards: I’m about the same. Fairly optimistic that something gets done.

Isolated Thinker: After reading your article about the negotiations, it seems clear that the biggest obstacle is the division among the owners themselves and the players are quickly becoming the good guys.  For the “Owners Don’t Know How To Share” section, regarding the bickering, do the owners who stand to lose money have a legit beef, or is there a logical correlation between making less money during normal times and therefore having more losses during unprecedented times?

Craig Edwards: We saw in the first proposal MLB made that they were catering to the big-market teams as the high-salaried players took big hits and those guys tend to play for high-salary teams. The teams with the biggest projected losses in the AP story from way back were all those big market clubs, though they also owned a significant portion of their RSN, which could still produce a ton of revenue that wouldn’t be seen. If it is the big-market clubs losing more money now, it is kind of hard to ask for relief from the smaller-market teams. It’s sort of like the owners asking the players to help them out this season with reduced salaries when they’ve been banking billions over the last few years.

Proofreader: Is “tack” slang for “tactic”?

Craig Edwards: according to a quick google search, here’s the definition: a method of dealing with a situation or problem; a course of action or policy.

Craig Edwards: it perhaps has some sailing origin.

JD: Any advice for studying for/taking the bar?

Craig Edwards: i found the bar class they offer very helpful, assuming that is still around. That’s half your day, then a few hours more per day reading material, then re-reading outlines as the test gets closer and taking a bunch of practice tests. Hopefully this advice isn’t outdated.

ben: Thoughts on Ricketts’ quotes from the other day?

Craig Edwards:

Craig Edwards:

JD: also follow up: besides the labor route what is a way to use a law degree to get into baseball eventually?

Craig Edwards: On that, I don’t have much help.

Pumpsie Green: Will we see any draftees from next week in MLB this year? Maybe a guy like Garret Mitchell, an older college guy who can provide value on defence? They won’t have anywhere but MLB to play and develop this year.

Craig Edwards: If there are bigger rosters, it seems more likely that will happen. More likely to be a pitcher, though.

Pat’s Bat: At what point will individual players begin to announce that playing the season in isolation from family and with an increased risk of illness isn’t worth it for reduced salary?  Will there be enough of them to jeopardize the season?

Craig Edwards: I doubt it will come out quite like that. There probably will be players who sit out the season for health concerns. I don’t think they are going to say that for enough money, they would be willing to sweep aside those concerns. That isn’t a good look.

Kevin: What’s the least amount of games that can be played before post season? 60? 50?

Craig Edwards: I don’t think there’s a set number. I noted in my piece that due to some fixed costs, it will probably take around 50 games for the owners to break even overall, using the figures they have provided. There’s an argument to be made that one gigantic playoffs would be a little more fun if we lose enough time that there can’t be a real season. A 50-game season is going to be pretty random in terms of standings and we might see some weirdness in terms of teams getting in the playoffs and left out that I’d rather not see.

Trent Hauser: Do you think the anti-labor sentiment and rhetoric rampant in the sports world offers a perspective on how all labor is seen regardless of industry?

Craig Edwards: I don’t think so. I think sports are very different and athletes are viewed differently because of the money involved and the entertainment. I don’t think there are as many people complaining in other strikes about needing to agree to a deal.

Smiling Politely: Having done something sort of/akin to a longitudinal study of owner/player/fan attitudes, what (if anything) sticks out as unexpected to you among the various responses you’ve followed?

Craig Edwards: I think the particular events going on right at the time really shape answers. If the overall mood is good, that’s reflected in the answers. If it’s bad, we see that, too. It really does shift pretty quickly.

Pumpsie Green: Will MLB permit local/regional differences in the number of fans allowed in the stands, or will they enforce a none-for-all rule? How weird would it be if they let 5,000 fans in Houston, but none in NY? And would it be an advantage?

Craig Edwards: I would imagine that if fans are allowed, they will sell tickets and let people in. I’m not sure if there’s going to be a significant advantage gained given that players will have adjusted to no fans and they’ve gone their whole pro careers with them.

Isolated Thinker: Is it fair to try to compare MLB with Hollywood?  Actors are paid millions while large portions of revenue come from movie theater attendance.  Movie theaters have been closed for over 3 months.  Are movie companies trying to pay actors substantially less now going forward because of this?  Legit comparison or apples and oranges?

Craig Edwards: Are movies even being made right now. I honestly don’t know. I do think that how much they pay actors is likely reflected in how much money they think they will make. Given how long it takes to make a movie, and the length of time it takes to get to theaters, I’m not sure what kind of effect it would have, but I definitely haven’t looked at it. Maybe there will be a lot more deals offering a % of revenues.

Sonny: I’ve seen several people suggest calling the season a wash and coming back for 162 in 2021, but I have no reason to believe the public health issues at the core of the stoppage will be mitigated by February

Craig Edwards: It’s way too early to say things will be better/different by then. That said, if they can have a season, I don’t know why they wouldn’t. There’s just way too much money involved, assuming the health issues get worked out.

Lorenzo: Is it likely that SP are building up arm strength right now prior to ST 2.0?    This could be a huge advantage for teams going into the season, no?

Craig Edwards: yes, there are a bunch of players getting ready and training right now to hit the ground running when the season actually starts.

Pumpsie Green: How about a 70-game season with expanded playoffs, and the owners can defer up to 20% of any salary over $1 million?

Craig Edwards: That seems pretty reasonable, though I’d prefer more games.

Chris: In a 50 game season how many weeks would it take before teams moved to 3 or 4 man rotations?

Craig Edwards: Depends on days off. Pitchers have been conditioned to pitch every five or six days for a while so doing something different will affect every pitcher differently. A team would need to be pretty confident in their individual pitcher to try something like that and also be pretty sure that the guy they are bumping can’t get the job done, even for a few innings.

Kevin: BTW. That was a great article you wrote about the revenue although I would really like to see what is really made by these teams especially the Pirates who routinely claim they can’t afford players

Craig Edwards: A lot of people, including the players, would love to see what is really made by these teams. Teams try their best not to let anyone see and they are pretty successful.

Jesse: Hi Craig – What kind of law did you practice and are you still practicing?

Craig Edwards: I did workers comp for about five years, then did a few years doing document review as I tried to transition into writing about baseball. I didn’t particularly enjoy being a lawyer and I’m currently on inactive status.

Captain Moonlight: Why isn’t Chris Archer better? Every time I watch him it looks like he should be impossible to hit, and yet folks sure seem to find a way.

Craig Edwards: Given the injury news, it seems possible he’s been hurt for a while and trying to pitch through something as his body was failing. He was really good for a few years with the Rays. Here’s Jay on the Archer news: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/thoracic-outlet-syndrome-fells-archer/

Pumpsie Green: I can see a team like Colorado pushing to cancel the season. They’ve got a ton of money in near-dead contracts and almost no chance for playoffs. It’s like a get-out-of-jail-free card (even though they put themselves in that jail)! Any others?

Craig Edwards: Look to which teams have been making the deepest cuts. The Angels and A’s come to mind, though it is just really hard to square with the fact that playing the games makes MLB a lot more money than not.

Pumpsie Green: Owners pooh-poohing the measly (multi-million-dollar) profits for this year, in comparison to the massive profits they usually make, maybe should own something other than baseball teams? Either that, or shit-can the ‘public good’ arguments they roll out when they want taxpayer-funded stadiums?

Craig Edwards: I think the owners are not going to have a good 2020 no matter what they end up doing, but the past few seasons have seen billions in profits (not revenues, profits) and it doesn’t seem like a ton to ask the “stewards of the game” to actually think about the long term health of the sport and what lost seasons mean when there is an easy solution. Suck it up for one season in the middle of a pandemic and give people baseball.

Craig Edwards: Going to cut things a little short today. Thanks for all your questions.