Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 12/9/21

Dan Szymborski: And it’s chat time!

Alex: Should the Giants trade for Juan Soto?

Dan Szymborski: Well, yeah, but in the sense that everybody should want to.

Dan Szymborski: Good luck, though!

Joe: What is the outlook on Gleyber Torres going forward? The power can’t be completely gone, can it?

Dan Szymborski: He’s too young and talented to give up on, but the last 1.37 seasons should make you extremely worried

Guest: Seems that the Mets are a hitter short who should they get? Bryant? Schwarber? Also thoughts on Buck as a manager?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure they logically have the roster fit for another corner outfielder

Dan Szymborski: Their weakest spots in the lineup at this point are likely 2B and C, but they’re not going to do anything about that

Guest: I’m worried about the Tigers falling into the Pujols trap with Cabrera. I was surprised to see that Pujols was still able to do at least something OK after he joined LA. Is there something similarly OK that Cabrera can still do?

Dan Szymborski: Hard to say. The Dodgers were lucky that Pujols’ bat lucked into a ball as much as it did

Dan Szymborski: But Miggy has gone from a wonderful fastball hitter to one of the worst

David Stearns – Milwaukee: Why are many MLB job announcements so poorly written?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe they want to weed out the people who think they’re going to make 200K a year with a team!

Nate: Which team do you hate the most when doing ZiPS and why is it the Royals

Dan Szymborski: You’re not going to think I hate them the most when you see the projections for a few of their young hitters!

Guest: As a sandwich man, how do you fee about banh mi?

Dan Szymborski: Not really in my wheelhouse as I don’t care for carrots.

Stroman: Did my “big mouth” on Twitter cost me dollars and years?

Dan Szymborski: I doubt that was a factor.

Chris: Is Rafael devers a sneaky trade candidate in the next 6-12 months? Depending what they do with boegarts that infield defense is interesting to put it nicely and they haven’t shown much in the way of paying $200 million+ contracts

Dan Szymborski: While it could plausibly happen, I don’t think the Red Sox go there with two years from FA and them coming off a near-WS appearance

Inaccessible Rail: oops, just submitted two questions without a name for myself. Curious how that will show up in the chat if you answer the questions. Also curious why the name I’ve been using didn’t just automatically fill itself in as it usually does.

Dan Szymborski: No idea!

tz: Hey Dan, do you know anyone from the Cincinnati area who thinks that Old Bay sucks?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think anyone outside of Marylanders or a stray Delewario give much thought about Old Bay

Dave: Dan I forgot to take my vitamin this morning, can you help?

Dan Szymborski: They’re not so beneficial that it really matters if you miss one

Dave: Cats? Lunch? Chili?

Dan Szymborski: Justinian’s sleeping on the couch in my office, the others were all sleeping upstairs in various spare bedrooms last I saw.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not eating chili.

Dan Szymborski: And for lunch, I’m probably going to eat one of those mediocre Italian sausages I have in the fridge.

Dan Szymborski: The storebrand Italian sausages are shockingly bland. My first thought was that I had COVID

Jake adams: Dan, do you think Zack Kelly is someone who will crack Boston’s prospect list this year? Little on the older side but had a great season. Or maybe a potential under the radar R5 pick?

Dan Szymborski: He’s interesting in a cheap bullpen pickup kind of way, though I’m not sure that gets him onto a bunch of prospect lists given his age

Dan Szymborski: That’s more an Eric question!

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS like him, but you’ll have to wait for the projection!

Dan Szymborski: (Kelly, ZiPS doesn’t have an opinion on Eric)

Dan Szymborski: Hmm, Zack Kelly?

Dan Szymborski: Does he have a buddy Jessie Slater?

Ryan: Hey Dan. With Tatis hitting 42  home runs last year in only 130 games does zips have him going over 50 this year? Thanks.

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan Szymborski: Now, he *could* hit 50, but it doesn’t really work as an over/under number.

Dan Szymborski: Stars do not have symmetrical expectations. Pretty much anyone having an MVP-type season has a worse baseline expectation

Chris: Rob Manfred said players leaving cities through free agency is bad for baseball. Wouldn’t some sort of restricted free agency where teams have the right to match a contract (up until say 29 years old) be an easy compromise where players could get paid earlier but won’t leave so neither side is happy but both sides get something?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it would be an EASY compromise, but there’s probably some universe where some version of this would fly

Guest: So…back when there was some question as to whether the other owners would approve Steve Cohen as owner of the Mets, most of the talk focused on the billion-dollar penalty that Cohen’s company paid. But I never bought that. It seemed to me that the other owners were really worried that Steve and his $$$ would drive up the cost of free agents. Have their worst fears been realized?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say so yet

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to “drive up” prices in this manner.

Dan Szymborski: Top free agents are very scarce and the Mets aren’t going to buy all of them.

Dan Szymborski: It’s like when the Hostess factory shut down and Twinkies were doing for 2K on ebay

Dan Szymborski: It didn’t really drive the price of  a Twinkie up.

Dan Szymborski: Every run-of-the-mill catcher didn’t get $10 million for a long time just because McCann got a deal\

Jim Leyland Palmer: How much value do you think Greinke can provide a team this year? Anything more than innings eating at the back of the rotation at this stage?

Dan Szymborski: No. I think he’s likely to give a bunch of averagish innings, depending on health

Inaccessible Rail: After ballooning the payroll to its current state, Mets HAVE to sign another starter and a couple of bullpen arms, right? Otherwise all that money spent could easily be for naught.

Dan Szymborski: I think they do have to

Bubba: Assuming Cohen doesn’t want to spend infinite money (inconclusive, at the moment), would the Mets be better off spending $43MM a year on Scherzer, or spend a similar amount of money on Stroman or Gausman and someone like Gray?  Or maybe even Stroman and Gausman?

Dan Szymborski: I love me some Scherzer

Dan Szymborski: But I’d rather have had two of Stroman/Gausman/Ray/ERod

Dan Szymborski:

Bubba: Given the players want some significant changes to the CBA and the owners don’t have any really big asks, what kind of concessions do you think the players can extract?

Dan Szymborski: May get a five OR age 30

Dan Szymborski: errr

Dan Szymborski: a five IF age 30

Dan Szymborski: Playoff expansion is a pretty big ask

Guest: If you were crowned SABR Lord, what stats’ names would you change?  And to what?

Dan Szymborski: None, really

Dan Szymborski: unless I’m allowed to rename pitcher wins into “accounting fictions”

Al Bundy: Will Roberto Osuna be receiving a ZiPS projection? If so, what are we looking at for him? Thanks in advance.

Dan Szymborski: Oops, did I not do one for him?

Dan Szymborski: He’ll be in one of the cleanup runs

Matt: Any guesses for what the Phillies do when the lockout is over?

Dan Szymborski: Little.

Jiffy: What are the chances the Angels do what they always do…. Miss out on all the starting pitching, then panic and give ten years to Carlos Correa?

Dan Szymborski: Sounds about right. They’re running out of pitcher targets

Chris: I know the rangers are getting a lot of mixed reactions for their signings, but isn’t there some argument that they have made a calculated bet that expanded playoffs are coming and they are closer to that goal than people are giving them credit

Dan Szymborski: It could be, especially with the novelty

Chris: Juan soto for the space needle? Who says no

Dan Szymborski: Who handles the shipping?

bk: Mr. Dan, tell me something fun about the blue jays and ZiPS projections

Dan Szymborski: They’ll be way better than the Orioles!

Dave: The Giants should also trade for Ohthani

Dan Szymborski: Trout and Tatis too!

Uncle Spike: Is there currently any element of the game that we currently can’t quantify that you feel would significantly improve ZIPs if the data were available?

Dan Szymborski: Better injury data

Dan Szymborski: I don’t even know WHAT form it would take

Guest: Least team-friendly FA deal so far?

Dan Szymborski: Scherzer

Max: Give us some 2022 rookies that ZIPS loves.

Dan Szymborski: There have already been THREE in the ZiPS posts so far!

Guest: Prediction for how Cano’s situation plays out with NYM/.

Dan Szymborski: Since the Mets will always Mets, awkwardly.

Beane: How many teams are calling me about Olson now? NYY, ATL, LAD, TEX, SDP, … ?

Beane: And prospect-huggers aside, likelyhood someone gives up one of their top 2-3?

Dan Szymborski: If I’m the A’s and really want to trade Olson, I’d wait and see until there’s a DH (obviously we’re passed the lockout deadline, so that’s what they’ll do)

Dan Szymborski: Not that he needs to be a DH

Dan Szymborski: but the DH still opens opportunities for him on NL teams because teams can put their inferior 1B options at DH for Olson

adambulldog: My dad used to make hamburgers in a hotdog shape and then serve them in hotdog buns. Is such a creation a sandwich?

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan Szymborski: It’s form, not ingredient.

v2micca: What were the biggest unresolved issues between the Players and the Owners at the time of the lockout?

Dan Szymborski: 5 year/6 year, revenue sharing, playoff expansion, as far as I can tell

Mr Met: Do mascots owe their loyalty to the owners or players?

Dan Szymborski: Whoever cleans the sweat out of their costumes

Moog Powell: I know trade proposals from fans tend to be ridiculous, but I can’t help but feel like a Jonathan Schoop for Craig Kimbral deal makes sense for both sides. What say you?

Dan Szymborski: It’s not the craziest thing ever for sure

Dan Szymborski: But it woudl come down to Detroit’s willingness to both trust Paredes generally and trust him at second specifically

Dave: barbacoa or carnitas?

Dan Szymborski: That’s a cruel question

Dan Szymborski: I may take barbacoa here

Dave: Are you going to watch the HBO Lakers series?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe.

Dave: What is your favorite “task” at FanGraphs? Chats, zips projections, transaction reviews, other?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS Season will always be my biggest tentpole

Dave: what percentage of chat questions are useable?

Dan Szymborski: More than I can answer

Dan Szymborski: Wait, I’m answering yo ua lot Dave!

Dan Szymborski: Sorry, I don’t really look at the names

APODionysus: Reading Clemens’ chat log revealed he play Magic which has me super excited to ask off topic magic questions during his next chat. As the master of off topic questions, you don’t also happen to play Magic do you Dan?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been out of it for a LONG time

Dan Szymborski: I used to

Don: Is Ortiz really gonna be a first ballot Hall of Famer while Bonds falls off? Exonerate one guy by saying well the results shouldn’t have been leaked while condemning another under the same circumstances? What, because one was likable and the other wasn’t? C’mon

Dan Szymborski: yea, there’s some weird logic

Dan Szymborski: I’d vote for both

Dan Szymborski: what I don’t get is the Bonds not Clemens voters, of which they’re a few

GuffyToeswich: Thoughts from ZiPS on the Knebel signing? Good or bad business from the Phillies?

Dan Szymborski: It’s a good signing!

Adam: Is it warranted to be at least a tiny bit concerned about the Dodgers’ medium-term future?  I know they’ve got a well-oiled machine but the system doesn’t seem quite as strong and a lot of major league depth has eroded over the last couple offseasons.

Dan Szymborski: I actually think they could have a retool year in there in 2023ish

Dan Szymborski: But they’re excellent at developing talent and have financial resources, so I can’t see any down cycle being too painful

Dan Szymborski: Like the rotation is still really good

Dan Szymborski: but it feels just REALLY underwhelming

APODionysus: Can you ask ZiPS what it thinks of Eric? Other fangraphs writers?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know what to model it on!

GuffyToeswich: Is Seiya Suzuki an impact bat in MLB next year?

Dan Szymborski: If memory serves, ZiPS has him a three-ish WAR player

glt4dc: Something I’ve been wondering about since reading Travis Sawchik’s piece a few months ago about pace of play issues – https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2203967

Guest: Was the Konerko comp on Ty France as surprising for you as it was for me? Given that he has a little more defense and versatility, France is looking like a star-quality player, no?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say STAR

Dan Szymborski: but he’s very good. I don’t think Konerko’s that surprising

Fred whitfield: Connor joe- great numbers in a small sample what do you think going forward?

Dan Szymborski: Less.

Dan Szymborski: But it was unusually creative of the Rockies to look at him.

glt4dc: Something I’ve been wondering about since reading Travis Sawchik’s article on pace of play issues, https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2203967, which notes that the increased # of foul balls is a sizable part of the problem.  Why are foul balls increasing so much and is there anything that can be done about it?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure, I haven’t really given foul data much thought.

Dk: As an Orioles fan thoughts on Showalter? Would you hire him if you were the Mets?

Dan Szymborski: Meh.

Dan Szymborski: No.

Haha Funny Man: Neil Huntington and Bob Nutting are in a bar. Neil asks Bob if he should buy a boat or sign a player to a long-term contract. Bob says: ‘O, Neil! Cruz!’

randy: Don’t you the the MLBPA is being unreasonable regarding the tax and supporting small market competiveness?  Full disclosure…am a Pirate Fan

Dan Szymborski: No.

Dan Szymborski: The revenue sharing/luxury tax system supported by owners is not geared towards small markets

Dan Szymborski: It subsidizes *low revenue* not small markets.

Dan Szymborski: Which means it’s an investment disincentive.

Dan Szymborski: If a team like the Rays or Pirates scores a small market miracle like the Cardinals and becomes a financial powerhouse punching above their weight, they LOSE money for doing a good job

Dan Szymborski: If owners were really concerned about small markets, then they would subsidize WINS, not low revenues, with a market adjustment for how a win is priced.

Dan Szymborski: The basic problem for the Rays is that they don’t actually get financially rewarded for additional wins.

Dan Szymborski: At least to the degree that additinoal wins cost.

Dan Szymborski: The problem with baseball’s current system is that the owners do nothing to make winning additional games *valuable* for teams like the Pirates and Rays

Dan Szymborski: The Rays don’t have huge attendance benefit from winning 100 vs. 70 games. Nor do they get more national money.

Inaccessible Rail: I can’t find Dr. Brown’s Celery Soda anywhere. Do you know what’s going on? Is there a celery shortage?

Dan Szymborski: Uggh, childhood flashbacks to my grandfather drinking Cel-Ray and chocolate soda

Trevor: I see the Jays and the Marlins starting rotations as pretty similar. Does zips see one as noticeably better than the other ?

Dan Szymborski: I think the Marlins is better, but the Marlins is REALLY good, like Oops! All Berries good.

Dan Szymborski: That offense though…

John: I know what zips says – but what do you think Jarred Kelenic’s WAR ends up being next season?

Dan Szymborski: 2

Guest: The Logan Webb projection was very exciting. I also love when the player comp is someone I’ve never heard of and then go down a baseball reference rabbit hole

Dan Szymborski: It’s fun seeing an old story about players that aren’t one of the traditional NAME legends

Dan Szymborski: Camilo Pascual was a really good one

Dan Szymborski: Ohtani’s top comp last year was a fun tangent

Dan Szymborski: As a pitcher, it was Scipio Spinks

Dan Szymborski: I ended up talking as much about Spinks as the Angels pitching! lol

Dan Szymborski: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-zips-projections-los-angeles-angels/

APODionysus: If we rename pitching wins to accounting fictions can we rename Saves to “outright lies”?

Dan Szymborski: Sure

Dan Szymborski: Holds can be outright lies nobody cares about

Ben Cherington: Who is the single most valuable trade asset in MLB today, with contracts, age, and positional value being considered?

Dan Szymborski: Soto

Mrs Phanatic: Do you have any productivity tips? I’m wasting so much time doing non-productive things, (cough, szymchat, cough) but I don’t want to do boring productive stuff.

Dan Szymborski: HEY

Dan Szymborski: I’m not great at productivity tips

Dan Szymborski: I’m good at my job because I love my job and it’s stuff I’d do anyway

Dan Szymborski: Though I wouldn’t write as MUCH of course

Dan Szymborski: Given how often I’m playing video games and at home in a t shirt and gym shorts, I dont’ think I can be giving productivity lessons

Adam: What kind of prospect could teams get from San Diego if they agreed to trade for Eric Hosmer’s entire contract and give back nothing?

Dan Szymborski: You basically need seven or so free wins.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think you necessarily need an elite prospect at this point

Dan Szymborski: Maybe a 50 FV prospect?

John: If the Mariners offer Julio Rodriguez 6/65 with a couple club options – does he bite?

Dan Szymborski: Couldn’t say if he’d bite, but I’d do that if I’m the Mariners

Tiger Fan: Hey Dan – when might we expect Detroit ZiPs projections? Can’t wait to get a look at those, especially with the new folks in the fold!

Dan Szymborski: 9 AM on 12/9!

Guest: New rule from Manfred. You can sign with another team via free agency, but you can’t leave your current city. The only games you can play for your new team is when they come visit.

Billy Beane: Dan, you have any recommendations for GPU sag? I currently have an extra piece of crown molding propping up the far end of my 3090 because it was the only thing I had handy I could cut into size easily.

Dan Szymborski: Just get a sag bracket!

Dan Szymborski: They’re like ten bucks

Dan Szymborski: But for the moment, anything that’s the right hate can be stuffed under their temporarily

APODionysus: Thus far, it seems like the Players are “winning” the “PR war” part of the CBA negotiations… but honestly how much does that even matter? Feels like the owners have little reason to actually care

Dan Szymborski: Not much

Dan Szymborski: But it could help subtly

Mose Allison Brie Larson: How are your cats dealing with the lockout?

Dan Szymborski: They’re locked in!

Gorman: Are the players correct in thinking that some teams will further lower their payroll limit because of expanded playoffs? That’s the holdup? This is one issue that the MLBPA doesn’t look so good on.  Really bad teams adding several million to their payrolls probably wont swing the playoff odds too much.  Just agree to the expansion and focus on the other issues, imo.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not the short-term factors

Dan Szymborski: It’s the long-term one.

Dan Szymborski: The more random ultimate success is, the less you pay for talent.

Dan Szymborski: And I know the MLBPA is aware of this

Dan Szymborski: And the more random ultimate success is, the less valuable the ultimate success actually becomes.

Dan Szymborski: If the World Series is seen even as more of a who cares crapshoot

Dan Szymborski: Then why would teams care THAT much even about making it?

Dan Szymborski: It’s the WWE Title Problem.

Dan Szymborski: A long time ago, the WWE got the idea that since title storylines were popular, they just needed to make a crapload of titles.

Dan Szymborski: But the ultimate effect was that title storylines no longer sell.

Dan R: Hi Dan, while I totally agree with your Zips projections for the Giants (and see a lot of regression), what will you do if they win 100+ games again?

Dan Szymborski: Cry?

Steve O: The Rays do get money for playoff games though, right? And I’m sure they still make a ton of money otherwise their owner would just sell the team.

Dan Szymborski: They get SOME money, but they’re not rewarded as much as a win costs

Jeremy: The late Doug Pappas wrote about market-size revenue sharing almost 20 years ago. From one of his pieces: compare the St. Louis Cardinals and the Philadelphia Phillies.
Though both play in 30-year-old stadia, the Redbirds generated $50 million
more in local revenue despite playing in a market less than half the size of
Philadelphia. For their trouble, the Cardinals paid more than $8 million
into the revenue sharing pool, while the Phillies collected almost $12
million.

Dan Szymborski: Still miss Doug

Dan Szymborski: It was SUCH a shock to the baseball nerd community at the time. Doug was relatively young (in his early 40s) and of good health.

Dan Szymborski: http://roadsidephotos.sabr.org/baseball/

Dan Szymborski: He was on vacation at Big Bend national park and died of heat stroke

Inaccessible Rail: I remember Scipio Spinks. Am I the only Fangraphs reader old enough to remember him?

Dan Szymborski: No, I’m sure some do

brad penny for your thoughts: when is my teams zips coming out

Dan Szymborski: Even *I* don’t know the full ZiPS schedule.

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: I only change the text to black for the next team

simmyball: Tiger finish ___ in the AL Central

Dan Szymborski: I’m gonna go out there. 2nd

Dave: What video games have you been playing?

Dan Szymborski: Hearthstone, been on a Total War Warhammer II jag, Final Fantasy V Pixel Remaster

Dan Szymborski: TRYING to play Final Fantasy XIV, but the servers have been a dumpster fire

Chris: Mariners should trade cash relief for hosmer and morejon

Tiger Fan: I missed them because FG shows most popular at the top thanks. Kind of embarrassing.

Dan Szymborski: I once tore my boxer shorts so dramatically while hiking that they actually fell out of my shorts when I was in line at Royal Farms

Dan Szymborski: that was wasy worse!

Mark: I know there’s no way to really know, but how much do you imagine the average owner pulls in personally each year?

Dan Szymborski: That I couldn’t tell you

TomBruno23: You ever dig into those SABR player bios? Pure gold, 80 footnote stories on guys who compiled less than 5 career WAR. I get sad when I look up a guy and he does not have one (Willie Davis).

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, they’re a lot of fun

brad penny for your thoughts: do you worry zips will become sentient and will try and eliminate you and live with the cats in peace?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not smart enough to program something that could destroy me.

TomBruno23: We can all agree Rick Reuschel is a Tengen League Hall of Famer.

J Peterman: What about if all 30 teams made the playoffs, and then after facing each other a number of times, the best 8 teams entered a tournament to determine the champion?

Dan Szymborski: heh

Dan Szymborski: Have all 30 teams in a playoff. You can have the playoff be a round-robin of 162 games, with each team placed in a “division”

jose luis: A decade from now, do you think we’ll be able to measure the development that was lost in 2020? Maybe by studying players who were slated for AA in 2020 against comps in other years? Is this something ZIPS is picking up already?

Dan Szymborski: I think we’ll ge tSOME idea

Dan Szymborski: On that note, it is time for me to depart, wich great sadness, for another week.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone!