Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 2/11/21

Dan Szymborski: And welcome to the chat!

Dan Szymborski: Should Fantographs be a FG skin option? Let us know!

Dan Szymborski:

George: Andrew Stevenson: Legit Starter or a fourth outfielder

George: Andrew Stevenson: Legit Starter or 4th outfielder? I know its small sample size and huge BABIP, but 2019 and 2020 statcasts support the hitting. His LA and Exit Velos are up and he can absolutely burn on the basepaths and plays a good OF.

Dan Szymborski: Can’t see him as a viable starter at this point. His cups of coffee are good, but small sample as you say and his minor league performances are fairly bleak

Dan Szymborski: Now, if he turns out to be bananas in center or something, maybe

resumeman: Do you know if/when the player fantasy commentary will be posted on the player pages?

Dan Szymborski: I do not know this.

Bill: Do you think Dylan Bundy has a shot of putting up something like his 2020 numbers over a full season?

Dan Szymborski: To this degree? Probably not. But I think a change of scenery was good for him

Franchyise player: Am I the only one most excited about Franchy in this deal? I realize he’s a lotto ticket, but still. TOOLS.

Dan Szymborski: He’s a lot of fun. An interesting pickup for the Red Sox to be sure

Omar Little: True or false: the universal DH will be included in the next CBA.

Dan Szymborski: True

Bilbo Baggins: Does Benintendi have a bounce back in him?  I think I read that he had lost foot speed, which seemed weird for a 26-year-old.

Dan Szymborski: It looks like he’s tried to hulk up a bit. Eveyrone loses foot speed from their young days! I have mixed feelings about Benny.

Coors Lightyear: is Franchy Cordero is actually good?

Dan Szymborski: Possibly. But possibly not.

A Boy Named Yu: Thoughts on the Benintendi trade?  I’m surprised the Red Sox are moving on from him already.

Dan Szymborski: I thought they’d give it a go after Betts and JBJ gone.

Dan Szymborski: But I can understand the move.

Daryl Dixon: Favorite under-the-radar signing or acquisition of the offseason?

Dan Szymborski: Hanser Albert seems like a fun fit for the Royals

Dan Szymborski: They’re unlikely to be upset that he’s a BA-heavy guy

EB: How stupid is it for the White Sox to go into the season expecting Andrew Vaughn (and possibly others like Engel, Collins, etc.) to play a fairly prominent role in their offense?  Shouldn’t they be looking to bring in one more bat (even if it’s a minor addition)?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t go so far as to stay STUPID. But I think it’s a huge risk for a contending team.

Dan Szymborski: he’s a terrific prospect, but he also has like no professional experience and that limited professional experience was really lackluster

Dan Szymborski: Sure, they like how he looks, but that’s jus not the same as actual games of baseball

Rick Grimes: Belgium 1918: which mlb player past or present would you want in the foxhole with you?

Dan Szymborski: Rogers Hornsby. everyone would be firing at HIM instead!

A Boy Named Yu: Favorite pitcher named Jack and why is it “Black” Jack McDowell?

Dan Szymborski: Jack Morris

Dan Szymborski: lol no

Dan Szymborski: Jack Quinn! He pitched forever because he was grandfathered into spitball rules

Dan Szymborski: Only Burleigh Grimes lasted longer

Zero Mostel: As a Mets fan I am scared to believe the projection for this season.  How will we manage to screw it up?

Dan Szymborski: Hey, with the Wilpons gone, maybe things will be OK!

Dan Szymborski: Here’s one of Zero Mostel’s lesser known roles: as the evil Spellbinder in the Electric Company

Dan Szymborski:

Zack: Any advice for someone working on a projection system as a pet project?

Dan Szymborski: DO NOT OVERFIT

Trevor Story: When will I be traded away from this God Forsaken mess of a franchise. I miss Nolan already.

Dan Szymborski: Colorado’s dumbest choice would be to not trade him at all at this point, so that’s probably what will happen

justin turner: why are the dodgers and i still playing this weird game of chicken? doesn’t the endgame seem obvious?? but if not, then where do i end up, and what do the dodgers do instead?

Dan Szymborski: I think there’s a lot of low-key interest in Turner.

Dan Szymborski: ThougH I expect he ends up back in LA

Mountie Votto: Daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaan the Reds are baaaaaaaaaaaaaad and that makes me saaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad

Mountie Votto: why are the Reds

Mountie Votto: no seriously who tf is gunna play SS for the Reds? It’s not okay!

Khalil Lee: OK, I’ll be the one to ask. Do I eventually start games for the Mets in the OF this year?

Dan Szymborski: This year? I’d gues sno.

Appa Yip Yip: If you were a skin in a game like fortnite (except a game you play) would you use the Szymskin while playing?

Dan Szymborski: Why not?

Dan Szymborski: I play as myself in other create-a-characters

A Boy Named Yu: Jed Hoyer seems ready to gamble on some young pitching (Alzolay, Abbott, T.Miller), something it seemed like Theo never wanted to do.  Is it a matter of no young guys forcing their hand or Theo never wanting to give them a chance?

Dan Szymborski: Theo was never really in a position where it seemed to make sense to gamble. Hoyer’s situ is different

Jen: Is there any way we can see what the depth chart looked like at the beginning of the off-season? I’d love to compare it to today.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think we automatically archive depth charts

Jon G: How in Cistulli’s name do I cope with my team’s loss of Future MVP Max Schrock?

Dan Szymborski: You didn’t make your ritual sacrifices to Carson!

A Boy Named Yu: Any examples of players from past eras that were somewhat overlooked or not given an extended chance that would thrive in today’s game?  A White Sox friend of mine insists Warren Newson would be a stud today, though still defensively challenged.

Dan Szymborski: Newson was an old stathead favorite!

Dan Szymborski: Petagine probably gets a better chance without going to Japan

Willie hears ya,Willie Dont care: How big of a drop off is Bauer going to have from 2020 to 2021?

Dan Szymborski: Well, it’s going to be some

Dan Szymborski: But he was legitimately excellent in 2021.

Dan Szymborski: As for any “additive” use, I only know what I can prove.

TRB1948: Will you make available a link to the spreadsheet file you send to Diamondmind Baseball (all splits, fielding data, etc) for their 2021 projection disk?  If yes, do you have a target date for this link’s availablility and how this link will be made available? Thank you-an avid Diamondmind Baseball fan you also appreciates your projection data immensely.

Dan Szymborski: Yup!

Appa Yip Yip: Are there any plans to write an article about players/teams most likely to be hurt by a deadened ball, and conversely which teams will continue to hit bombs? I know the Jays in particular have long been targeting dudes who hit the ball hard (Biggie excepted) and I’m curious what other teams will continue to mash and what teams will see a drop off.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know anyone’s called dibs on it.

Dan Szymborski: After talking with Dr. Wills (podcast might be up as you see this!), I’m not even convinced we’ll have a deadened ball

A Boy Named Yu: Not sure if they win the title without Chapman in 2016 and flags fly forever and such, but the Cubs sure would look good with Gleybar at 2B, not to mention Eloy in LF and Cease in the rotation.  TOR turned Hatch into a usable pitcher and it looks like DET is doing the same with Lange.  Normal prospect what-ifs or does it seem like Theo bled a lot of talent the past few years?

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t care for the trade much at the time and don’t care for it any more with the benefit of hindsight.

SZYM SZN: Hey dude – what games you playing this week? I haven’t touched anything since finishing Tsushima a couple of weeks ago and need some inspiration.

Dan Szymborski: Nothing particularly interesting this week!

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been playing through the Legends of Heroes games in anticipation of the eventual (this year) release of the English localization of Cold Steel IV

Dan Szymborski: I’ve beaten it in Japanese on the PS4, but I’d like to play it through in a language I speak and understand!

Dan Szymborski: (Then I’ll probably import Hajimari no Kiseki and later on, Kuro no Kiseki)

A Boy Named Yu: Crackers and/or cheese in your chili?

Dan Szymborski: No

KC Breath Mints: Dan, have you checked out Blaseball at all? Any interest? I stayed away all of last year but think I’ll jump in when it kicks back up on Feb 22.

Dan Szymborski: From time to time, but I have so many interests on my plate!

Well-Beered Englishman: What team(s) do you think the projections are wrongest about?

Dan Szymborski: I’m actually far less in disagreement with ZiPS than usual

Sad, Confused Marlins Fan: Yay Adam Duvall! (rolls eyes) does this mean we wont see Bleday until September?

Dan Szymborski: I think that was always the case.

Dan Szymborski: If the Marlins were itching to promote Bleday aggressively, I think we would have seen him last year

Guest: Big Tommy Pham fan here who used to root for stl and Tampa. I’m having trouble rooting for a team that has Machado on it though. Why do you think Preller looked the other way at his awful character and intentional foot stompings of 1st basemen. Why didn’t machado get a life time ban by the commissioner? I can’t call myself a decent human being and root for most of these teams. Most of them have embarrassing ethics/morals for various reasons. The commish is toothless joke…

Dan Szymborski: The MLBPA would rightly speak up about a lifetime ban for stuff like this.

Dan Szymborski: The commish *is* toothless; he’s not the owner of baseball. He’s an employee of the owners.

Dan Szymborski: And in the end, stars get signed.

Dan Szymborski: Like Trevor Bauer has some real douchebro trolliness. But it’s not like you can go to the Pitcher Store and get the Nice Edition off the shelf.

Mountie Votto: Is there offensive upside with the Reds? If you (perhaps foolishly) assume health, there’s room for growth from Senzel, Aquino, Akiyama, Stephenson, and perhaps Winker, with the threat of big seasons from the masher veterans. The defense will be terrible but maybe the offense can click this year?

Dan Szymborski: There’s some – the BABIP was unsightly low — but I don’t think there’s a huge chance of them being GOOD

A Boy Named Yu: What are some ways you think Jed Hoyer will operate differently from Theo?

Dan Szymborski: For one, he’s dealing with an organization that no longer is in a win-now mode.

A Boy Named Yu: Favorite sky blue uniform from the 80’s?

Dan Szymborski: Phillies

Dan Szymborski: Though they used that in the 70s too

Dan Szymborski: Cardinals close

Cave Dameron: What do you think Ichiro’s career WAR would be if he spend his entire career in MLB?

Dan Szymborski: Cool stuff, Cave!

Dan Szymborski: Heh sorry

Dan Szymborski: I did an ESPN piece on that some time ago

Dan Szymborski: Don’t have the link but Szymborski ESPN Ichiro should find it

Guest: What is it about Giolito that gives him ZiPS highest WAR projection for a pitcher, but Steamer has him behind Eovaldi and like 20 guys?

Dan Szymborski: I wrote a piece on him why ZiPS loves him.

Dan Szymborski: But I can’t tell you why Steamer does not.

Mountie Votto: WHY

Mountie Votto: WHY ARE

Dan Szymborski: SEND HELP

Jonah: You’ve shown the percentiles for ZiPS projection for featured player articles. Is there any where to see those projections for all players?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure if we’re going to go live with them this year, but they’re in our database

A Boy Named Yu: Have you ever run a ZiPs for Michael Jordan’s career?  I think it’d be interesting to see what it does if you use his actual MiLB stats but start him as an 18 year old.

Dan Szymborski: Might be fun ZiPS Time Machine thing

Joe: Who is the worst and why is it the Red Sox?

Dan Szymborski: Sweet Caroline

Mr. Robot: Robo-Umps by 2035, Y/N

Dan Szymborski: Please Y

Dan Szymborski: and probably Y

FannyGraphy: Hi Dan, I realize this question is random, but how did Ellis Burks not get any ROY votes in 1987? A 20-20 season? 94 Runs??

Dan Szymborski: The competition was intense that year

Dan Szymborski: He was only tied for fifth among AL rookies in homers

Dan Szymborski: McGwire hit 49 homers, Seitzer was well over .300, and Matt Nokes was a catcher hitting 30 homers

Dan Szymborski: His 2.7 WAR was only 7th among AL position rookies (not that they would explicitly know WAR at the time)

Kyler: It seems like not having a minor league season in 2020 really makes it hard to project some players/teams this season. For someone like Pache, it’s clear that the team is much higher on him than the projections. But with hardly any data to go on the projections are going to be extremely conservative. But the team saw him every day at the alternate site and felt confident enough to give him the keys to CF in the postseason so it feels like you can take the over on a prospect like that when he has the vote of confidence from the team and they have more data the the projections, even if it was from a year of intrasquad games haha. Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not necessarily sure.

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to see the consequences of 2020 yet.

Dan Szymborski: Generally speaking, I haven’t found any kind of team consideration variable as a helpful variable.

A Boy Named Yu: I get an incredible amount on entertainment from creating relevant players/prospects into The Show that didn’t come with the game.  Please tell me I’m not the only one?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t usually do that, but I’m sure someone does

Dan Szymborski: I did make a fictional Mussina kid with his repertoire and appearance and windup

Dan Szymborski: Muamar Mussina!

Dan Szymborski: Muammar

Rodney: From 2017-2019, Trevor Bauer and Robbie Ray produced awfully similar results. There’s a big cleavage in their outlooks now – but is it possible Ray can still be a legitimate #3 in Toronto?

Dan Szymborski: It is. I like the signing

Bait Silver: Which FG MLB team projection do you think is likely to be the MOST OFF, i.e., miss the widest? (Or PECOTA if you prefer.)

Dan Szymborski: I’m befuddled by the Boston projection

Dan Szymborski: In ours

Dan Szymborski: I’m not going to dish on the competition. It’s not very classy!

Guest: oooh yeah it’s STEP BY STEP day on soundcloud

Dan Szymborski: Dammi,t I thought you guys would have forgotten this by now

Dan Szymborski: OK, I discovered I do not know this theme song very well

JRussellFinch: How much weight, if any, does 2020 get in ZIPS and other projection models?  It appears 2021 player forecasts weight 2020 lightly.

Dan Szymborski: I think I wrote abou tthis?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know about other models

Dan Szymborski: I think Ariel Cohen did a look at how systems were treating 2020

Guest: The Giants are required to sign Shane Greene and pitch him in tandem with Jake McGee, just for the Shake McGreene headline.

A Boy Named Yu: Did you know that the Janitor from “Scrubs” is the first baseman in “Rookie of the Year”?  That’s a thing that you know now.

Dan Szymborski: WHY DIDN’T HE SAVE HIS MONEY

Don Von Handburger: Who is a better hurler of baseballs: Zack Gallen or Corbin Burnes?

Dan Szymborski: If you’re making me choose, I’m going with Gallen

Guest: Dan, I can’t help but feel terrible for Acuna, how did his agent talk him into that contract?…yes, big picture it’s a lot of money, more than I’ll see in my lifetime but the amount left on the table is staggering

Dan Szymborski: It’s the Albies one which is especially crazy

Dan Szymborski: “Hey Ozzie, how about we make you SCOTT KINGERY RICH?”

Dan Szymborski: Acuña at least gets 100 million guaranteed

Dan Szymborski: With TEAM OPTIONS, Albie makes out at 9/45!

Dan Szymborski: s

Franchy Fries: Calm down Franchyise, I’m Franchy’s biggest fan!

Guest: is MJF the best heel working in the business today?

Dan Szymborski: I would say so

Dan Szymborski: I do think we have a shortage of good heels though

Jeff Cork: I play as you too in create-a-characters

Dan Szymborski: LIES

murraygd13: With news that MLB plans to “deaden” the balls this year and more teams controlling the storage condition of the balls, how does ZiPS handle this information? Or plans to just ignore the news as noise?

Dan Szymborski: It doesn’t

Guest: Are you fatter than Don Baylor circa 1988 or less fat?

Dan Szymborski: I’m a little bit thinner than Bartolo

Dan Szymborski: Essentially, I’m an obese guy, but if I went on The Biggest Loser, I would still be crazy-skinny in comparison

Dan Szymborski: You woudln’t fit in my pants, but I’m still a one airplane-seater

Dan Szymborski: (with stock seatbelt)

Dan Szymborski: You wouldn’t want to go jogging with me, but I don’t need a Rascal.

Dan Szymborski: That’s my approximate level of fattity.

bayfan: Does Susan Slusser replacing Henry Schulman on the Giants beat mean Bay Area baseball media are getting better?

Dan Szymborski: I like Hank. Susan would upgrade almost everyone, including me!

A Boy Named Yu: If I’m eating a chili covered soybean burger, does the chili cease to be chili when I take a bite and the beans mix with the chili in my mouth?

Dan Szymborski: No, food structure only counts until it passes your teethline

Dan Szymborski: EVERYTHING becomes stew after all

Dan Szymborski: and then…worse

Brett: Might have just missed it somewhere – do you know when Prospect Week kicks off?  Thanks Dan!

Dan Szymborski: MONDAY!

Dan Szymborski: Uh oh, I hope that wasn’t a secret

Reader’s Digest: About time for me to dig into some baseball books to get excited for the upcoming season. You ever read (or hear of) The Universal Baseball Association, Inc., J. Henry Waugh, Prop.? Novel by Ryan Coover about one guy’s made-up league, sorta proto-fantasy-baseball.. been thinking about it lately. Read it years ago.

Dan Szymborski: I’m familiar with the book (though Robert!) but I’ve never gotten around to it

Guest: will a competitive 3rd party *ever* take hold in America to the extent they were around in the 18th/early 19th centuries? Or is the 2-party system so ingrained that we’re just going to ride that out

Dan Szymborski: It’s too ingrained

Dan Szymborski: The one thing the two major parties agree on whole-heartedly is perpetuating the structure of the two-party system

Dan Szymborski: Personally, I don’t think parties should appear on ballots at all and on computer screens, order of candidates should be randomized per voter. I consider party affiliation as a form of advertisement.

Dan Szymborski: Fat chance of ever passing that everywhere

brad penny for your thoughts: do you ever wear a hat that has a PRESS placard on it?

Dan Szymborski: I have not

Dan Szymborski: Maybe I should

Dan Szymborski: Maybe I’ll stick a Press square in my trilby and wear it to a game

Dan Szymborski: But I think people might not think I’m being ironic but instead being dickish

Dan Szymborski: like ha HA, I am a writer man! I am more important than you proles!

Dan Szymborski: You know, that kinda thing.

Dan Szymborski: Since I’ll already be wearing my credential badge

Jonah: Extension to the percentile q: who is the superstar with the narrowest gap in WAR between their 10th and 90th percentile outcome?

Dan Szymborski: I hadn’t actually looked at this

Dan Szymborski: which is why it took me a few minutes

Dan Szymborski: The *largest* superstar gaps are those still young enough to have significant upside. Lindor 5.1, Acuña 5.0, Devers 4.6, Turner 4.6, Bogearts 4.5

Dan Szymborski: Freeman is the narrowest of the four-win projection guys

Dan Szymborski: at 3.5

Don Von Handburger: Q: What did Joey Lawrence say when they swabbed him for the COVID test?

Don Von Handburger: A: Whoa!

>this guy<: As a cubs fan I am really looking forward to other NL central teams’ bad moves moving our ZIPs win projection higher, since we are too poor to do it on our own!

brad penny for your thoughts: what stadium have you seen the most games at?

Dan Szymborski: Camden Yards easily

Christian Colón for Men: At how many wins do the Royals peak in the next 4 years?

Dan Szymborski: non-mathematical guess: 84

Christian Colón for Men: What was the craziest ZiPS projection you did not believe was real until you re-ran it?

Dan Szymborski: Actually Bieber going into 2019

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: There were reasons to like Bieber

Dan Szymborski: But seing right after Kershaw at tha point, well, it’s doubletake city

Christian Colón for Men: Where did Michael J. Fox go?  That was a funnier punchline.

Cat Latos: How do my cat friends do?

Dan Szymborski: Mercutio is hiding under one of the beds because I cleaned out his eye

Dan Szymborski: (He has a case of Horner syndrome – all the diagnostics came out just fine as did physical exam, but he’s got a droopy third eyelid which is slowly getting better)

Dan Szymborski: Cassiopeia is sitting on the couch in my office thwapping her tail because Justinian look at her.

Dan Szymborski: And Justinian heard his brother outside my office about 10 minutes ago, so ran off to go and try to beat him up

Guest: do you / have you ever shared ZiPS under the hood stuff with friends that ask for it for fantasy purposes? or is that a violation of journalistic integrity

Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually have any IRL friends that are super into baseball enough

Dan Szymborski: I doubt any of them even are aware of ZiPS

Dan Szymborski: They know I’m a baseball writer, but that’s basically it

Guest: since you work from home have you ever thought about taking up a sleeping schedule like they had in the middle ages? basically they were so tired from working outside all day they’d go to bed right at sundown, wake up around midnight or so and have a snack, read, or visit with friends, then go back to sleep until sun up

Dan Szymborski: Not quite this schedule, but I am in the habit, from years of covering baseball, of taking a late afternoon nap and then going to be really late.

Dan Szymborski: There aren’t usually a lot of 4:05/4:35 games, so I tend to skip lunch, eat an early dinner around 4, doze off for 90 minutes, and then get regular dinner with 8 o clock games.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: This GPU market is just wow. I have a 6800 XT on order for a completely ludicrous (still MSRP for AIB) price, though what I’m apparently able to sell my RX 580 for mitigates that a lot, as does factoring in the value of my time in trying to find another card. Oof. Tempted to just wait a year and keep playing indies and console games.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, the semiconductor industry’s a mess right now

Dan Szymborski: And on that note, it’s time for me to head off for another week!

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me, everyone!

Dan Szymborski: And I’ll see you next time.

Dan Szymborski: Unless I die on the way back to my home planet.

Guest: bye dan, learn step by step please