Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 2/29/24

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Ack, I’m here!

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Got lost fuming on Twitter

12:08
Placido Polanco fan club president: Just read Ben Clemens’ article about team depth. Don’t the ZiPS projected standings account for depth? Does ZiPS handle depth differently than the way proposed in Ben’s article?

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Sort of. ZiPS always has a generalized model that varies the playing time availability of top players so sometimes those Plan Bs or Cs or Ds get a lot more playing time than you expect

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: For example, in that one run in the AL projections that I alluded to for the O’s, the O’s mostly ended up with David Banuelos and Michael Perez catching

12:09
Harry Lime: Can you suggest any articles that talk on late round players for deep drafts? thx

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That’s more a Zimmerman Q!

12:10
Angelus Novus: O’s have a ton of good position players. When will we see Mayo? Do they need to make a trade to free up room?

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They may need to trade, but I don’t think it’ll be before the start of the season

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll take a wait and see approach

12:12
Jeremy: When looking at the 2024 Pre-Season Projections, “Fantasy” dashboard, how are the players sorted by default? Doesn’t seem to indicated the “sort on” metric.

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Looks like it’s still sorting by the WAR order

12:12
David M: Nl only keeper…down to one of these 3.  Pfaadt, B Garrett or Bohm

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: depends who is available if you don’t keep. I’d probably go with Pfaadt

12:12
Refugee: When you analyze MiLB data, do you have a way to filter PA or IP versus comparable (let’s say top 100 or top 150) prospects as to avoid showing a guy feasting on mediocre competition?

12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No, not really. But those guys don’t hang around at levels very long

12:13
Refugee: Is there hidden criteria for stats to be indexed? My impression is that indexing is an ideal way to put a stat in context, but I’ve found that how far it strays from 100 can be misleading. A 111 Stuff+ changeup was the best among all qualified starters in 2023. A 111 Stuff+ slider was 11th. I know it would be clunky to add standard deviation to every index stat, but couldn’t it be useful?

Side note: for stats like OPS+ or wRC+, do you also find a way to index by position?

12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t usually. Generally speaking, I think OPS+/wRC+ speak for themselves, at least they do with me

12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I try to avoid stats ABOUT stats where possible. I think it’s better for someone to have the long term knowledge that a 110 OPS+ is mediocre for a 1B but very good for a SS rather than try to distill it even further

12:14
tumtum: When does ZiPS see Semien hitting the age curve?

12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Like most players his age, there’s a slightly increasing risk every year

12:15
Question marks: Both Alex Kirilloff and Kerry Carpenter are 26 and have question marks after their names: Kirilloff, his health and whether he’ll be platooned; Carpenter, his horrid second half and wherther he’ll be platooned. Who would you rather invest in?

12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think Carpenter’s safer, but Kirilloff missing a lot of time from injuries makes him more uncertain and thus, more upsidey

12:16
Guest: Who are the biggest ZiPS movers after the first few games of Spring Training? For example, Nolan Jones is hitless in 10 PA with 4 Ks already.

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t do spring so nobody’s moved! lol

12:16
Who’s Fabio?: Dan, is it too early to start thinking about Deadlinesmas?  The Jays didn’t do much this offseason so I’m hoping for something spectacular in July.

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think it’s tough until April at least

12:17
Edgar scores, Junior scores, they all score: O’s prospect Enrique Bradfield seems to have a nice hit tool, and his speed is off the charts. He seems to be the second coming of Mickey Rivers. Why isn’t he a higher-ranked prospect?

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well, you’d have to ask Eric and Tess if it’s about the FG rankings

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: As for ZiPS, it just doesn’t have a lot to go on

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and college stats, which ZiPS does use when it has to, are really erratic in value

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And let’s just say his 2023 Vandy translation did not go well

12:18
Donut holestein: Do you personally agree with the ZIPs projection of Adolis Garcia?

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think it’s fair

12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: We’re talking a 31-year-old player; there are for more chutes than there are ladders and it only gets worse from here

12:19
Eric: After MJ Melendez’s horrible first half, he hit .273/.352/.485 in the second half and finally tapped back into his power. ZIPS sees him bouncing back as well. Thoughts on a potential breakout?

12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Bearish on a breakout. ZiPS hasn’t found a ton of value in chopping up the season

12:19
Refugee: Should two-seamers and sinkers be tracked separately? They have different columns in all of FG’s dashboards, but it seems like nobody is being categorized that way, which I find hard to believe.

12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Pitch tracking is tricky in that it’s not simply a cluster analysis exercise, you also have to give classifications that fans are familiar with or they’ll just not care and not use it

12:20
Smitty*: oh, and don’t you hate pants?

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I love working at home so I can mostly just wear gym shorts. Ah, mesh gym shorts, the working man’s silk

12:21
>this guy<: Dan have you had the neural network or Copilot create any chili recipes?

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I have not

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: wait, I HAVE

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: but I don’t use the AI that tries and give you right answers because that’s no fun

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Inferkit’s GPT implementation is way more fun

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (it’s rawer and less focused on the correct answer)

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

12:24
Mason: Does players not signing till into spring really make anyones lives worse?

12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No

12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Because it’s not really about that, and MLB hopes stupid people will buy that

12:25
Guest: Dan fuming on Twitter? glad i just re-joined after deleting the old account

12:25
Guest: Aliens are going to invade Earth, and you don’t have access to ZiPS. They ask you to project the top 30 players with the highest batting average for this season. What 5 metrics do you look at?

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: BA, contact rate, strikeout rate, BABIP, walk rate

12:26
Romorr: Don’t you love it when people overreact to Spring Training stats? Always makes me laugh. Anyway, Coby Mayo should be the Orioles opening day 3B, right?

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They’ll see what happens at AAA I’m sure

12:27
Guest: Is this your first ever leap day chat?

12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Maybe?

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Leap Year was a Monday in 2016, lemme see

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Nope, did one in 2016

12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Remember, while FanGraphs didn’t hire me until 2018, I’ve been doing chats longer than that as ESPN gave me permission

12:31
Andrew P: If the Red Sox sign Montgomery, how much higher does their rotation move in the league rankings? I think they were at 18 or 19 right now

12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Given how closely clumped teams are, Montgomery LOOKS like it would bump them to the 11th-14th range in our depth charts for SP

12:31
JV19: Does ZIPS ever have weird probability distributions?  Similar to (I think) Chris Mitchell had on prospects where some had bi-modal distributions on FV.  I remember some were 60/10/10/10/20 for bust, 40, 50, 60, 70 for example.

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It does! I noted a few years ago that there were two pitchers that had significantly bimodal distros: Tanner Scott and Michael Kopech

12:32
Matt Waters: Although Elly De La Cruz understandably gets ample pub, I am extremely bullish on the futures of Encarnacion-Strand and Will Benson for the Reds. How do you feel about these players, Dan?

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Moreson on CES. I’m bullish about heir future

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My relative grumpiness about the Reds is mostly due to a weirdly designed roster and when they choose to spend money, getting the least bang for the buck

12:33
Kevin: Why do you think the other projection systems are so much higher than ZiPS on Jazz Chisholm’s 2024 PAs? It seems like ZiPS is the only one appropriately considering his injury history.

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well, Steamer uses the depth chart playing time!

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Invader Zimmerman did a look at it

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and found for the guys who were undeniably major leaguers, ZiPS actually did a really good job with playing time, much better than I had expected

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: So ZiPS is SORT OF a playing time predictor, just for some dudes

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: but not for, say, Samuel Basallo, who will not play in the majors at all this year

12:34
Dale: Hey Dan, long time listener, first time caller. First off, thanks for all your work with ZiPS; It’s a massive advantage in fantasy baseball! Is there any way for the public to access 90th percentile projections? I’m trying to identify some breakouts

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t publish 90s as a whole, but I do publish 80s!

12:34
Eric: The Cubs aren’t going to trot out Nick Madrigal at 3B on Opening Day, right?  RIGHT??

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They may. We’r enot quit ein March yet so wait and see

12:35
TomBruno23: Have you seen Leapday William yet today?

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Ha! I appreciate a good 30 day reference

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 30 rock

12:36
Guest: Is this year dragging on for you as well? Feels like we should be in March already…

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No, January-March always flies by for me

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Becuase I always have a bazillion projects I want to get done over the winter and then I finish like 7 and see it’s March 22nd and shit’s about to get real

12:36
Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Roughly speaking, is the offensive gain in platoon advantage worth the defensive penalty for having someone play multiple positions? Thinking about Gunnar Henderson playing 3B vs. SS in order to get Jorge Mateo in against LHP. This isn’t a question about Jorge Mateo per se, I just mean if there was a generic RHH shortstop.

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It CAN be

12:36
Travelling: Maybe a better question for Eric, but if one was going to the Dominican for a week beginning April 1, and wanted to watch some good baseball, any clue where they would find it?

12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That’s definitely an Eric Q!

12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ve never even been to the DR!

12:37
8th overall pick: Rank these three by games played in 2024: Yordan Alvarez, Judge, and Ohtani

12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: a, o, j

12:37
TomBruno23: I am a Cardinal BFIB fanatic going on Season 40 of the soap opera…sell me on purchasing season tickets please. Thank you.

12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 2024 almost HAS to be bette rthan 2023

12:37
Tino: Do you feel like Nolan Schanuel has potential in the MLB? I am deciding between him and Harrison Bader (have both as low money keepers and can sign to 3 year contracts). Thanks!

12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think so. You’re not properly incentivized to like Bader in a fantasy format

12:38
Dale: Do you believe in ghosts?

12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Though I don’t categorically *deny* their existence. If ghosts do exist, we currently do not possess the scientific knowledge of how it could come apart, nor the tools to confirm their existence.

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But the null hypothesis is that ghosts do not exist, so I have yet to see anything that would cause me to reject the null hypothesis.

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m open to a lot of things, such as the concept of some kind of creator, even if not accurately described by anyone yet. To an ant, a human is supernatural, after all.

12:41
Jack: With RSNs going under and MLB finally embracing in-market streaming, will the league have to start subsidizing even big market teams to maintain competitive balance? It seems like if you don’t already have a lucrative TV deal like the Dodgers, Phillies, etc, you’re screwed.

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m really not sure how it’s all going to shake out, honestly

12:42
The Next Billy Beane: Any advise for getting into data analytics through baseball? Specifically through SQL Server, R Studio, etc.?

12:42
12 to 6: i know, i know, its one spring training game and we dodger fans shouldn’t get too excited yet, but yama’s splitter:

teeheeheheheheheheheheeeheeeeheeeheeeheeee.

12:42
the person who asks the lunch question: what’s for lunch?

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Egg salad

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: well, egg salad sandwich

12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Eggs, mayo, salt, pepper, celery seed, worcestershire, mustard, paprika, gochujang

12:43
Colton: Is no data or manufactured data worse in a projection system? Had a discussion last week with a friend about the lack of high school prospects on ZiPS 100 and we were at a crossroads over the topic.

12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Depends exactly what you mean by manufactured data

12:44
Jack: I know it’s hardly unheard of for rookie hitters to start hot and then pitchers figure them out. But what’s up with Davis Schneider? Going back to last September, he’s gone from Barry Bonds to Bartolo Colon.

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think people freak out too much about upsa nd downs

12:44
The guy Dan was arguing with on Twitter: Yeah that’s right, I followed you here to continue our discourse

12:45
McGraw45: Odds you do this chat on the same day next year?

12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Zero. There’s no 2/29 until 2028!

12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And it’s a Monday

12:46
John Angelos: Why didn’t the O’s sell for more than $1.7 billion?

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I mean, it’s not the Dodgers in terms of market

12:46
KC Pain: Would you rather have Baz or Ragans long term?

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Baz

12:47
Victoria: Who wears their eyeblack the best in baseball? Chris Morel? Lindor? Harper?

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t have Smoky+ but maybe Eno does?

12:47
Dan Szymborski: I am now conducting this chat

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: FRAUD!

12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

12:48
Not Mike Morse: How much does ballpark and team defense affect a projection for a strikeout pitcher? Does the difference between say Yankee Stadium and Oracle Park do much to Snell’s projected stats?

12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Slightly. The park factors *are* predictive, even if relatively small compared to other stuff

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You should see me in MLB the Show when there’s a Moment or some other game in Target during day games! lol

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Ah, someone else had this complaint

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

12:50
KC Pain: Who do you see the Orioles moving?   They cant possibly keep all their prospects with a logjam at positions.  They have to move some before the shine wears off, age, or injury strikes right?  They didnt even clear a spot with the Burnes move lol

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I suspect Santander could go in the right trade

12:51
Nate: Re Melendez: ZiPS is probably more concerned about the 1100+ MLB PAs of below replacement level production primarily due to a glove made of lead

12:51
Gold Star: Are you on Bluesky yet? It seems to have taken the lead for replacing Twitter.

12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I am, but I have to admit I’m kinda lazy on posting on it

12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: since so many people who read me are still on twitter and they only JUST opened up

12:51
szyn pouches: in a hypothetical world where the diamondbacks lose gallen and kelly to free agency in 2 years, am I wrong to be unreasonably optimistic about a combo of Pfaadt-E-Rod-Mena/Lin?

12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If you are, then so is zips

12:52
Jeremy: I’m assuming ZiPS takes into account the player’s teammates and position in the order, right? For example, does the projection change/refine once they sign as a free agent? Thinking a Justin Turner, for example.

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: SPECIFICALLY, no. Though it does use proxies that work

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: For example, it estimates the level of team offense by the projections of the returning guys and average production elsewhere. Same with defense

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And as a kludge, it works surprisingly well

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And I find the downside here — missing something on a team with HUGE turnover — isn’t worse than the cost of constantly changing everybody’s projection every day

12:53
Guest: Obviously Trevor Bauer isn’t on a team but if he does go to one does fangraphs have his expected stats?

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I do have his projection in the system somewhere

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Waitk, he’s projected

12:54
Guest: Who will be the brewers starting 3rd and 2nd baseman?

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think our depth charts are off

12:55
Dale: Christmas came early this year! Where can I find the 80th percentile ZiPS projections?

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: the player pages!

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: err the team rundowns

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: trying to figure out how much we can stuff onto player pages

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I know we’ll have the splits up in the near future

12:57
Sirras: What is your favorite article you wrote in the last year? That FG published, regardless of author?

12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not sure on the second, so it would be unfair to name on

12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: for my personal fave?

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hmm, sorry it takes a few

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m the type of person who immediately hates and regrets everything I write as soon as I hit send

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think this?

1:00
Zach: Re: Feels like we should be in March already

I think that was a joke Dan! It’s leap day

1:00
A dumby: So if you would expect about 10% of players to hit their 90th percentile and 10th percentile, does that hold true for every percentile bucket? You should see approximately 10% of players roughly distributed across all outcomes?

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah! Ideally yould’ have 10% in each decile

1:01
szyn pouches: Are you haunted by any single season a player had that ran completely afoul of the ZIPS projections?

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Haunted? No. I do the best I can and that’s all I can do

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Though for teams, the O’s projection haunts me, not because I regret it, but that it led to me hearing for six months that I have a secret grudge against the city I’m from and team I root for, for some reason

1:02
Chichikov: If team control weren’t a thing and the Jacksons (Holliday and Chourio) were free agents right now, how much would you and/or ZIPS estimate they’d get on the open market? Assume they’re trying to maximize this contract and not enter free agency again in their late 20’s.

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 1.8 shitloads of money

1:02
Eddie Planks Constant: I stopped following baseball in 2008 and got back into it this season. Glad to see you are doing well. I remember when Zips was on Baseball Primer. What should I know about the 15 years I’ve missed?

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: We have a very weird president and 2020 was even weirder!

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I was at ESPN from 2010-2018

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ve also gotten 16 years older since 2008, so I’ll be 46 in June rather than turning 30

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But I bet you had a similar change in age!

1:03
Guest: Which Brewers prospect (besides Chourio) will have the biggest impact?

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think Black COULD

1:04
Guest: mookie says he wants to be considered a legend of the game when its all said and done. seems to me like he might hit that very ethereal benchmark
what is his projected final WAR total?

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I like when people ask me the things I already have!

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS projects Betts finishes at 81.4 WAR, 2557 hits, 432 homers, 128 OPS+ over 9282 AB

1:06
Also 2016 Dan: el gasino: when will we see robot umps?

Dan Szymborski: 2040.

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think we’re beating that one

1:06
Todd Bonzalez: Didn’t Grandma Szymborski haunt this chat for generations? WAS THAT NOT CONVINCING?!?!

1:06
Pitchers of Interest: Which projection do you feel more confident in, Yamamoto or Imanaga? Or is it more “they share a lot of the same data set, so both about the same”?

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: About the same

1:06
Victoria: ok i’m done reading your 2016 chat, jeeeeezus was there a lot of Tr*mp

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Wait, did I talk a lot of politics in 2016?

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I hate talking politics, what did you people do to me that I’m suppressing?

1:09
Matt: Hey Dan, any thoughts on the terms of Bellinger’s contract?

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s reasonable for a contending team

1:09
Jake Heisenripbauer: In 2024 it feels like MLB is the only major sport that hasnt been ruined by the influence of Vegas. NBA and especially the NFL are jokes. Is it just a matter of time or maybe Vegas already has a huge influence on MLB and it just isnt as noticable? or is there something inherent with the game of baseball specifically that makes it harder to affect outcomes?

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: baseball is pretty coinflippy

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And it’s never been the favorite to bet on anyway

1:10
Broken Bat: Enjoy your insights Dan. Understand the layers of variances in seeking future performance of the players. That being aside, depth of roster isn’t just nighest WAR etc. of total team but depth is having suitable backup defensive, power, contact, speed, and a degeee of potential among others to play above the 50% projectiles. That’s my opinion, not yours. But I am curious witzhnrosters not being set yet, so it’s early, what teams potentially have maybe deep rosters that might lack the STAR or STARS to be a favorite?

1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But remember, the more stuff you include, the more work is involved

1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The FG projections can run instantly when there’s a trade or something

1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: to do the ZiPS method, if I’m doing the full-fat ZiPS projections, first I need two days for the numbers to crunch on two PCs

1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and then about four hours to run the distribution of team quality from simulated depth charts

1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and then another two hours to run a million year of sims

1:11
Guest: you’ve only been at FG since 2018? in my brain you’ve been at FG forever, like Cameron-far back lol

1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Again, I was AROUND FG before that

1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS was on FanGraphs before 2018 as well.

1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and I’ve been a staple of the chats going way back

1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and remember, I was behind the ESPN paywall

1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I accepted the job offer on my 40th birthday (6/19/18) about 20 minutes after I nearly drowned myself with my life jacket while kayaking

1:14
Guest: what are the TO’N 80/20s? I didn’t see them on STL or BOS

1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: they’re there!

1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: search for 80th and 20th

1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think fourth and eighth charts?

1:14
Bobby: ZiPS have any interesting longshot ROY of the year candidates? Maybe Busch in Chicago?

1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Busch isn’t a bad one honestly

1:14
Guest: Let’s say there’s a projection system that debuts this year and is 30%-40% more accurate than any other system for 2024, 2025, and 2026. Would you believe the creator is more likely to be a time traveler or has found a breakthrough in the art of projections?

1:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Oh, time traveler for sure

1:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: we’ve been squeezing out a pretty dry sponge to get more improvements

1:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and I don’t think teams have found the magic key, else they wouldn’t buy data

1:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: presumably nobody gives me money just for liking me

1:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I certainly wouldn’t. I’m not that likable

1:16
All the wong moves: I agree with your point about short signing windows being a disservice to player equity, but isn’t there an inescapable, pre-set window defined by the off-season?

1:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but 5 months is a lot easier period to make decisions than seven days

1:16
Eh?: Dan, I picture you being the type of person to laugh hysterically by yourself at something you saw on your computer. I am also like this. Am I wrong?

1:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No, I sometimes lose my shit at things

1:17
Austin Riley’s HoF Plaque: If Ronald Acuna’s 20th percentile outcome is over 5 fWAR and his 80th is over 9, what’s his 99th percentile outcome?

1:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: it’s not open, but it was like 10 something

1:17
Guy Who Asks The Multiple Choice Question: In general, what is your favourite nickname for hotdogs?

a) Glizzys
b) Meat Missiles
c) Tube Steaks
d) Dongs

1:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t have a nickname for hot dogs

1:18
Felines: Post the most recent picture of your cats. No cheating.

1:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: OK, most recent is 2/20

1:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

1:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t have a single picture with all four cats

1:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: the most i’ve gotten for my current cats is three

1:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

1:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Ok, this is the only picture I seem to have EVER of all current cats in the same picture.

1:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

1:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: From 2015

1:25
Guest: I would think it’s incredibly rare, if it’s ever happened, that a healthy player has hit their triple-digit or negative percentile in ZiPS?

1:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You can’t!

1:25
ryan: Have you considered adding zStats to player pages over xStats

1:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I have considered it

1:25
happy birthday Rose: Is this rose’s facebook? i was told this link i could wish you happy wishes. wishes to you and your best fiends. wishes for another great fantastic to come and such as. birthday.

1:25
Justin: Hi Dan! Do you play out of the park, and if you do what does your typical save/game look like?

1:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I do

1:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I usually play rebuilding teams

1:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: or the O’s

1:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s especially fun since OOTP uses my projections as a starting point

1:26
Tom: Rose, best of luck to you on your endeavors. i know this wasn’t easy for you, but hector is proud.

1:26
Mason: Is Gunnar a top five 3b or ss at this moment?

1:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: yes

1:26
Victoria: Total mentions in that chat: 12 of Trump, 4 of HRC, 2 of Sanders, 2 of Bush, 2 of GOP

To be fair, our brains were collectively broken by winter of 2015-16

1:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m sure it was the fault of you guys, because it’s a really weird day when I bring up politics on my own

1:27
Have you?: Have you ever used your last name spelling as if it were the word “simulate” aka “szymulate”.

1:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I have, sadly

1:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ve also described something as szympatico

1:27
Buford: Who is the worst general manager to have won a World Series?

1:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: worst as in absolute or worst relative to GMs of the time?

1:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: if the latter, Dayton Moore

1:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: but he’s probably be 10th best or so in 1985

1:30
Victoria: hot dog is a nickname for a frankfurter

1:30
brad penny for your thoughts: How many of these have you had?

1:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: six I think

1:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If I’m eating a hot dog, I mostly just want kraut and a little mustard

1:32
Tom: Rose, thank you for posting my wishes on your timeline

1:32
Guest: so, technically speaking, does every player have a 1.000/1.000/.4000 ceiling and a .000/.000/.000 floor?

1:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah, though that’s purely theoretical

1:33
SC: Would you rather keep Royce Lewis in the 9th round or Josh Jung in the 16th?

1:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Lewis

1:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: YOu don’t have to have him healthy enough to play hard positions to get the position qualification

1:34
brad penny for your thoughts: are you a fan of the baltimore hot dog?

1:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I assume you mean the old Attman’s dog?

1:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No, I don’t care for bologna or double up on my hot dog meats

1:36
TomBruno23: Matt Carpenter v Patrick Corbin right now oh babbbbbeeeeeeeeee

1:37
TomBruno23: and Corbin with the backwards K on a pitch down the middle.

1:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Resistible force 1, movable object 0

1:37
Phil: You and I are about the same age, and I’m starting to think about retirement. Do you have a succession plan for Zips? Could someone else even do it, or is too much of the process in your head?

1:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t have a succession plan, honestly

1:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I probably should have one for if I drop dead suddenly

1:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: it’s doable, but there’s a learning curve and I’d need to document how I do more things

1:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: like the database that goes into the projections has a zBABIP field for hitters, for example, but someone who has ZiPS wouldn’t know where to get the zBABIP

1:39
Tom: Rose, thank you for posting my thanks on your timeline. not necessary and you can stop now. Regards

1:39
Cat Latos: What do my cat friends do?

1:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Last I was upstairs (about an hour ago) all four were sleeping

1:39
Eric: Speaking of hot dogs, thoughts on Cincinnati chili/cheese coneys? Most Ohio transplants I know have very strong feelings one way or the other…

1:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No.

1:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That’s my opinion of Cincy chili

1:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not a refusal to answer

1:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and on that note, it’s time for me to take off for another week!

1:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming all!

1:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well, not for the one who keep submitting the same very lengthy Trump question I’m not answering





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

3 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
TKDCmember
2 months ago

The ceiling of every player is to be intentionally walked pretty much every time you hit and the floor of every player is whatever gets you released (or demoted).

Although Chris Davis did nobly challenge the idea that everyone can play bad enough to be cut.