Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 4/1/19

Dan Szymborski: It’s April, but I’m still having this lousy Smarch weather!

Z: Burnes, C. Smith, P. Lopez, Matz, Matz

ECDC: Why would Rendon sign an extension now when he’s pretty much the only FA for this coming offseason now?

Z: My fault, meant to say please rank them

Dan Szymborski: What format?

Dan Szymborski: Well, he could get a deal he likes, but yes, he’s rapidly becoming the only player in free agency!

Rob: Hearing multiple stories on Lindor ranging from reassurance to more serious underlying issue….any insight for a panicked owner?!

Dan Szymborski: A little worried, but I think if it’s a long-term thing, the Indians would go into complete panic mode

Dan Szymborski: Their offense is VERY largely hitched to the J-Ram/Lindor wagon.

Dan Szymborski: They’re not the offense’s engines, they’re the offense’s WINGS

Chorizo: I walked 51.4 miles last week and only ate one huge piece of cake. Small victory.

Dan Szymborski: I think we established that it was OK as long as you weren’t eating *A* cake as your exercise reward

Tommy Gufano: Look out for those pesky Orioles!

Dan Szymborski: They keep this up, they may get their playoff odds to sneak over that 0.1% line

Dan Szymborski: then we can celebrate Not Rounding to Zero Day

Matt: Do you see Chris Paddack more in the Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, or Kevin Brown mold?

Dan Szymborski: That’s premature!

Matt: When is the zips prospect list coming

Dan Szymborski: After Kiley and eric. May be a midseason thing as a result.

Dan Szymborski: Which means I’ll do it earlier next year instead of waiting. I didn’t want to horn in on their territory

Wes: How do you handle new parks with ZiPS? When the Rangers open their new field next season, how is the park factor determined?

Dan Szymborski: I (very conservatively) compare it to existing parks.

Dan Szymborski: Conservatively enough that it’ll be fairly close to neutral unless it’s a crazy elevation

Dan Szymborski: which it won’t be unless a volcano sprung up down there and I didn’t notice

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: “Hey, it’s the Dan Szymborski’s Chat Show…Coming to you live on the down low…It’s Dan, not Dave, keep it straight…I can’t believe he’s not running late”

Slapshot: Do you have any predictions to share on who you think will win the big matches at WrestleMania (Kofi/Bryan, HHH/Batista, Brock/Rollins, Rousey/Lynch/Flair) on Sunday?

Dan Szymborski: Bryan, HHH, Rollins, LYnch

Joey Joe Joe Jr Shabadoo: Which SD SP should I keep, Luchesi, Strahm or Paddock? I’ve streamed/will stream all three but will need to keep one.

Dan Szymborski: Lucchesi is the safest, but Paddack if you need to chase upside

Ray Kinsella: Tim Beckham – best player in baseball?

Dan Szymborski: Of course

ummmm: Bogaerts extension…seems like yet another instance of a “fair value, probably left a little on the table” deal, yeah? FA is gonna be pretty boring the next couple of years, but all these extensions are a blast!

Dan Szymborski: I’m finishing my piece on this after the chat!

Mike: Who’s performance from the first weekend will we overreact to most? The Dodgers’ ability to score lots of runs, the Padres’ ability to pitch, the Yankees dropping 2 of 3 against Baltimore, or Bryce Harper getting booed in his first game?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe Marlins starting ptiching?

Dan Szymborski: At least if my Twitter is any indication

Dan Szymborski: People have been yelling at me for disputing someone calling them “pretty damn good” by noting how they shut down those juggernaut Rockies sort of

BK: I imagine there’ll be a lot of angry Braves fans in this chat, I’m here to represent the calm side of the fan base. So my question is: why does it seem like the Braves haven’t developed a decent starter in like…20 years?

Dan Szymborski: Teheran’s had enough highlights to call him decent

Dan Szymborski: Folty’s certainly decent

Dan Szymborski: Hanson/Medlen/Minor were all decent at least

Dan Szymborski: it was injuries that brought them all down

Dan Szymborski: If someone burned the Mona Lisa in 1550, da vinci would still deserve credit for the painting!

I hate LA but…: Urias is available in my league, is he a season keeper for now?

Dan Szymborski: Depends what the other choices are

Brian Dozier: Am I having another 2018?

Dan Szymborski: I expected a bounceback to a lower level than pre-2018 before the season, and 3 games isn’t enough to make me change any opnion

Jung Ho Kang Bang: My expensive pitching staff sucked this week.  How concerned should I be about Sale and Darvish?

Dan Szymborski: Sale not so much. Darvish more wroreis

Dbo: For April Fool’s Day will you be putting beans in your chili and serving it to your unsuspecting friends and family?

Dan Szymborski: You can’t call violence a prank

Dan Szymborski: If I’m going to call putting beans in chili a joke, I might as well execute my “rob a million dollars from a casino” prank.

Jim Leyland Palmer: Have a steak dinner bet with my father on Jeimer Candelario’s batting average (400 pa min). I took the over on .255, is free steak in my future?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, he’d need to drop dead at dinner before the steak is served and you’re the executor of his will and he left you all dinners-in-progress

CamdenWarehouse: I here today for all of the questions that generate a reply of “April”

John Smoltz: How concerned should the Braves be about their bullpen?

Dan Szymborski: Very. Didn’t we have ’em second-lowest in our positional rankings of all legit contenders?

chet: is the rangers offense better than advertised, or is cubs pitching just really bad?

Dan Szymborski: March

Dan Szymborski: Uh oh, Cassiopeia and her hedgehog have arrived. Why does she have to do this when I chat?

BK: Can the Braves stop jerking Max Fried around? If they want him to be a multi inning guy from the ‘pen then that’s fine. If they want him to start then that’s great too. But having him go back and forth for the second year now is really frustrating

Dan Szymborski: The Braves are on that weird position of possibly having too many young pitchers to need to get time to

Dan Szymborski: I do think they need to try and cement roles as best they can

Dan Szymborski: Also:

Dan Szymborski:

Fangraphs Reader: On the teams tab of the website, why does it go East-Central-West from left to right, instead of West-Central-East as if you’re looking at a map?  pls fix. Central-East-West would also be acceptable as it is in alphabetical order.

Dan Szymborski: East Coast is Beast Coast.

Dan Szymborski: Central has long drives to ocean and West has that weird cold ocean.

BenZ: When FIP and FIP-based WAR are calculated, do inside-the-park home runs count as home runs or balls in play?

Dan Szymborski: Home runs

Dan Szymborski: Mostly because they don’t happen enough to matter.

Dan Szymborski: But technically speaking, BABIP should +InsideHR in the formula

zurzles: Are these Fish starters actually maybe pretty good? One thing people aren’t mentioning — Realmuto to Alfaro is a big jump in framing skill

Dan Szymborski: They might be OK, but I expect them to be below-average overall

Dan Szymborski: and if their ERAs improve *because* of moving from Realmuto to Alfaro, that lowers their ERA, but it’s Alfaro’s credit

yojiveself: if Hampson doesn’t do anything this week, is it safe to move on?

Dan Szymborski: Again, it depends on your alternate choices.

Dan Szymborski: I think the medium-term question is the harder one

Dan Szymborski: What happens if Daniel Murphy is ever healthy? McMahon’s making a case and the Rockies have an obsession with pretending Ian Desmond is a major leaguer, so you can’t just stick Hampson in center

yojiveself: Thoughts on Pineda?  He used to give up homers, is that still going to be the case?

Dan Szymborski: “I used to give up home runs. I still do, but I used to, too.”

PTBNL: In 2015, Dayton Moore released a book called “More Than a Season.” Now that we’ve let this whole thing play out a little more, which of these more accurate titles would you go with if you got to retitle the book? “Exactly Two Seasons” or “Barely More Than a Season”

Dan Szymborski: Tales of a Blind Squirrel

John: With respect to the Cubs bullpen, please tell me it’s April.

Dan Szymborski: Well, it is now. But all the stats are from March. So March.

LFC Mike: Happy April Fools Baseball Chat.  Dan.. A baseball/food question. What leaves a worst after taste..a bowl of Skyline’s best chili or that start by Sonny Grey yesterday?  Introducing Skyline’s Sonny Grey Chili Bowl: Not served over a plate and guaranteed to induce runs…..

Dan Szymborski: It’s not my fault if the Reds pick up Sonny Gray and he stinks. It IS my fault if I eat Skyline.

Zwak: If a team could sign Mike Trout for free for one year but would also be required to have you take up one of their roster spots, which teams would you advise to do it?

Dan Szymborski: Literally all of them.

Dan Szymborski: Getting a nine-WAR player for free on the condition you play with a 24-man roster is obviously superior.

Mookie: Assuming Mookie Betts and Mike Trout both have full, healthy seasons this year, approximately how much better would Betts have to be this year to have the higher projection going in to 2020?

Dan Szymborski: That’s a little theoretical. Maybe two wins?

Scott: Which is more shocking to you – yankees at 1-2 or red sox at 1-3?

Dan Szymborski: 1.5 * 0 is 0 because I’m not shocked by any team record in any three or four game period

Dan Szymborski: Now, if the O’s were undefeated in four games after Andrew Cashner pitched every game and struck out 27 batters each game, OK, I’ll be shocked.

yojiveself: Which catcher will have a better year – Contreras or Grandal?

Dan Szymborski: Grandal

Mario Mendoza: Dying to get some thoughts on 1) Frankie Montas’ new splitter, 2) Trent Thornton’s high-spin curveball and 3) Sandy Alcantara’s increased slider usage … and whether the good results they all had on Sunday might be just the beginning

Dan Szymborski: I was impressed by Thornton’s curve, which is the one I saw the most of these

Dan Szymborski: It’s a real weapon< I feel

oldmannearthesea: These “Curt Replies”…do they mean we have to ask about Curt Flood, Blefary, Pride or Schilling?  Or can we expand that to Granderson?  Don’t want to break the rules…

Dan Szymborski: I give the Curt replies, so it’s at my discretion

That’s a first : I ate cow intestines and a blood sausage yesterday. Common fare here in Buenos Aires. They were actually really good.

Dan Szymborski: Sausage tends to be good

Guest: (small sample size warning) how many players you think have had chili as their pregame meal? over/under is 10

Dan Szymborski: I would think very few

Dan Szymborski: I’ve never seen an outfielder suddenly start running to the dugout because diarrhea

Alcides Escobar: I will have you know Szymborski I DID fall out of a boat and not hit water..I was in a Bass Outdoor Proshop looking at a boat…I seem to have some time on my hands…and leave my mom out of your insults..at least she can drive.

Anthony: Do we put any stock in John Means 21.5% SwStrk% in his 3.1 IP this season?

Dan Szymborski: I am going to smack the face off of your face!

Ryan: Your 2019 team pitching WAR leaders are the Blue Jays, Marlins, and Twins.  Which one actually has the best rotation?

Dan Szymborski: Probably the Twins, though the Marlins have more upside

Ceddy B Ready: ZiPS spreadsheet? Is it happening? Am I too early?  Am I the only one who cares?

Dan Szymborski: Still working on the defense for DMB

mpurwin: Curious on your thoughts on Alex Reyes? Had a bit of an up/down weekend (as did the whole STL bullpen) is he worth it to hold this year?

Dan Szymborski: Unless you have better options

Syndergaardians of the Galaxy : Why do the Yankees have so much trouble with the Orioles?

Dan Szymborski: Old Bay circulates in the air in the visitors clubhouse

BK: Opening Day for the high school season today (at least for me in colder weather state). Fundamentally, how should high school be coached differently than the pros? The obvious thing that comes to mind is launch angle. We can’t have all our kids trying to lift the ball because almost none of them are strong enough to put it out of the park anyway. They just result in pop ups or lazy fly balls. Can you think of any other ways high school differs from the pros?

Dan Szymborski: Should probably avoid three true outcomes teachings with high schoolers

Dan Szymborski: Defenses are far worse in the high school than in pro, there’s more a benefit of putting the ball in play

BK: Is Christian Yelich BETTER than last season?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t go that far becuase March, but damn

Sir Nerdlington: Did you read the Deadspin story on the Ricketts/Tribune financial shenanigans?  Given the WS windfall, how do the Ricketts’ not plan ahead to buy the final 5% from Tribune *and* be able to afford an actual reliever or two (not to mention Harper/Machado)?  Seems like greed, stupidity, or negligence.  Or all three.

Dan Szymborski: I actually missed that

John S: Who is gonna soak up some innings for the baby Padres? Someone has to right?

Dan Szymborski: I think if players start getting high in innings totals, they’ll rotate in other options

Out of LF: How serious is the Stanton injury?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe it’s serious

chet: biggest 1st series pitching surprise; Lauer, thornton, or jordan zimmerman? Or just really bad opponents?

Dan Szymborski: Matt Moore!

Ziggy: Do you subscribe to the Athletic? I can’t afford it but want to read Eno.

Dan Szymborski: I do.

Dan Szymborski: Eno gonna reap your soul

JTR0: After the Astros, who has the second best starting rotation in the AL West?

Dan Szymborski: That’s like asking for your second-favorite result in the lotto after “win”

BK: Talk to me about Nick Margevicius. It’s not often we have a local kid from Rider make it to the big leagues

Dan Szymborski: He’s related to noted wrestler Sid Margevicius. Soft-tosser, but the Padres are looking at the rotation as an opportunity to try things

Al: Kolton Wong or Lourdes Gurriel?

Dan Szymborski: Wong is write

Ceddy B Ready: Joey Rickard is the worst.

CamdenWarehouse: I was sad to see you didn’t stand up for Andy Nelson’s yesterday

Dan Szymborski: They’re a more generalized barbecue place, the pit beef can’t match the elite tier

Dan Szymborski: the vinegary pork is 80 though

KD: So…is it me or are you amazed at the great pitching performances that have occurred so far from pitchers who…are not that great?  I am not saying it was one guy, but there have been several.  I think the ball is dead on purpose, though MLB gave the Mariners the old ball for the Japan series…and they are still using it.

Dan Szymborski: I think part of it is knowing that Matt Moore was dominating.

BK: Folty hasn’t really been developed by the team though. He was mostly an Astros org. guy

Dan Szymborski: Still, plenty of other names

Bobby Cox: Don’t forget Brandon “decent” Beacy!

Daniel L: Any reason ZiPS got pulled for Chris Paddack?

Dan Szymborski: It did?

Dan Szymborski: That’s news to me

stew: you buying the Adam Jones renaissance?

Dan Szymborski:

stever20: what kind of reception do you expect for Harper tomorrow night with the Nats?

Dan Szymborski: mixed

Andy: I mean yeah the Marlins are not a good team but you gotta admit that their rotation at least has POTENTIAL to be pretty damn good

Dan Szymborski: but POTENTIAL isn’t IS

Dan Szymborski: And I was arguing this in the context or noting that the Marlins gave away Paddack, Castillo, and Trevor Williams essentially for free. People were acting like it was this rotation OR those guys

Dan Szymborski: when none of them were traded for the current rotation

DDD: Why don’t the Braves just do that thing where they have a rotation like Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz/Millwood?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t mean to alarm you, but “20 years ago” no longer encompasses the Braves putting together that rotation.

Dan Szymborski: Even *Millwood* was last a Brave 17 years ago.

CamdenWarehouse: heh, the idea that the Rockies have a good offense just won’t die. The Fish announcers were talking them up over the weekend saying the bats and not the pitchers were why they’d challenge for the division

DDD: If you were Mookie Betts, what number would make you sign today? If you were the Red Sox, what would be the top you’d offer?

Dan Szymborski: Harper’s deal

DEF: Will there be a ZIPs projection disk for Diamond Mind this year?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

chet: Rockies were my WS pick a week ago. How much does the murphy injury hurt?

Dan Szymborski: Depends how long he’s hurt

Yadier: With the rise of awareness/charting of pitch framing, how do you think umpires will respond to catchers who are considered great framers?  In reality, they are trying to make the umpires make mistakes.

Dan Szymborski: Umpires seem more annoyed by it than anything

Dan Szymborski: but some will look at the stats rather than see them as a challenge

Dan Szymborski: the endgame is robot balls and strikes

InLastPlace: Does Tauchman get a chance or is Frazier seeing all the time with Stanton out

Dan Szymborski: Would make sense to looka t Frazier

YKnotDisco?!: Terrance Gore’s player page has him listed as DH (lol) when it should be DPR.

Dan Szymborski: We don’t really have a field for that

Dan Szymborski: since it’s 2019 and not the playoffs and all

Dan Szymborski: but the Royals gonna Royal

GP: what do you make of sonny gray after a great spring and a terrible first start?

Dan Szymborski: No change.

Dan Szymborski: Because March.

Mike: My friend is convinced that the .010 bump in Christian Yelich’s ROS zips projection means that 4 games has further confirmed that Yelich is now Barry Bonds.  Could you please say “APRIL” to him in the nicest, most convincing way?

Dan Szymborski: HEY MIKE’S FRIEND:

Dan Szymborski: MARCH

So what: I’m wearing my wife’s dirty underwear on my head like a sexy bandana.

Dan Szymborski: That’s…nice?

Old Timey Fellow: Hey Dan, we may have a weird, cold ocean, but we also don’t have hurricanes or hot humidity.

Dan Szymborski: We have humidity so that we’re not too spoiled by being on Beast Coast

Dan Szymborski: We have seasons

InLastPlace: Drop Hampson for McMahon or Domingo Santana

Dan Szymborski: Ideally, I’d want Hampson and Mac and see how it plays out

Iggy Pop’s Raw Power: start 1 – Paddack vs STL or Gibson @ KC?

Dan Szymborski: Paddack

Andrew: Pete Alonso had a fantastic opening series against some pretty tough competition. What do you think are the chances he hits the over on his zips projection?

Dan Szymborski: 1-in-2

The Darkness: How quickly do plate discipline metrics start to stabilize for hitters?

Dan Szymborski: Quickly, but there’s no hot and fast rule because it’s a spectrum, not something that turns ona nd off

Kevin: Are we concerned about Winkler’s PT? He has Joey Votto plate discipline, and needs to play over Schebler.

Dan Szymborski: Not yet, but if we start seeing too much Kemp, Ill get annoyed quickly.

Dan Szymborski: I had a mean Kemp graphic at some point, didn’t I?

Dan Szymborski: Bah, coudln’t find it

Dan Szymborski: SO enjoy this instead.

Dan Szymborski:

LFC Mike: Did you ever find that bourbon slushie  you were looking for?

Dan Szymborski: I did not. I already spent the entire 5th trying to find it

Dan Szymborski: And people at the park were not helpful

Bob: Yandy Diaz seems to have  found a way to elevate a little more. Think he can be 12 team relevant this year?

Dan Szymborski: In an OBP leagu ehe could be

Dan Szymborski: but god that line drive homer

Phil: Best books to enter the world of Baseball analytics?

Dan Szymborski: Tango The Book

Dan Szymborski: and mgl and andy dolphin

DDD: Am I right that zips does not include framing? Why did you choose not to include (or include, if that’s the case) it?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS does

Dan Szymborski: because it includes value

Dan Szymborski: and framing brings value

Dan Szymborski: though I do it conservatively given the predictive value of framing numbers

Grapenuts O’Neill: So, how is the Boston news media interpreting their starting pitching so far?  A.”Not taking an opponent seriously.” B.”Memo spring training over not sent.” C.”Mariner juggernaut offense explains early season shellacking.”?

Dan Szymborski: C, but I tend to read national stuff first

Orange: What did you see from Paddack that stood out to you?

Dan Szymborski: His confidence with his changeup

Dan Szymborski: There was no dinking around with it, he wasn’t afraid to put it in a location close enough to wheelhouse to dare Giants to TRY and hit it

Ceddy B Ready: If your chili gives you diarrhea, it might be time for a change.

Dan Szymborski: Like most of my family, I do have some occasional digestive issues

Dan Szymborski: I certainly don’t have the stomach/intestines for spicy food that I once had.

Dan Szymborski: Oh, if hot chicken were a big thing nationally 20 years ago, the amount of that I would eat!

Nate: I’m using MLB Streams on Reddit. Will I go to hell for this?

Dan Szymborski: Possibly, but I’m not the police

Josh: Do you incorporate any Statcast data into ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Grapenuts O’Neill: So, the Indians cannot sustain major injuries to that roster.  No surprise.  How worried should they be?

Dan Szymborski: If Lindor’s ankle is serious, Very.

CamdenWarehouse: smacking people’s faces is Means, Dan

Bryan in Boise: so Brutus the Barber Beefcake is getting into the WWE Hall of Fame, must be nice to be best friends with Hulk Hogan I guess. Does this make him the worst member of the WWE HOF?

Dan Szymborski: Mark Henry is in the WWE Hall of Fame

Dan Szymborski: Yokozuna is

dhill: How much cash is in your wallet right now?

Dan Szymborski: I think like $10

Dan Szymborski: I got $40 at the atm on my way down to Cincy on Thursday

Dan Szymborski: and I spent $30 on parking + valet tip

Dan Szymborski: I don’t usually carry much cash

Kevin: Best Baseball-related April Fool’s Joke?

Dan Szymborski: Sidd Finch

Ben: I can’t seem to get into any Brandenburg Concerto recordings other than the old Karl Richter ones. Most of em are just meh. Any suggestions?

Dan Szymborski: Depends what you’re looking for in a Brandenburg

Dan Szymborski: if you like more “historically informed” performances (though you may not if prefer Richter), I’d look for the Marriner with Dart that uses a recorder+horn instead of flute+trumpet

Kiner’s Disembodied Hands: Do you think that Trevor Williams might be one of those pitchers who are not quite accurately rated by many pitching metrics?  Many are calling for him to regress and he most certainly will to an extent, but he seems to have shown an ability to limit hard contact and to suppress hrs on his fly balls.

Dan Szymborski: It’s quite possible. If he keeps it up, you’ll see projections start to align more with his results

Dan Szymborski: But it’s always smart to be a skeptic

Joe: Andy Nelsons is the best bbq I’ve ever had outside of the south.

Dan Szymborski: It’s really excellent stuff

Dan Szymborski: Just *strictly* pit beef, the pit beef specialists edge them out

billsaints: Willians Astudilo has the highest AVG. In MLB history minimum 100 PA. Nuff said!

Syndergaardengnomes: So, re. Sports Illustrated’s baseball preview, in this day and age, why are we still reading anonymous scouts talking about gritty white guys winning several games for team X, while random Hispanic/black player isn’t getting the most out of their talent?  If you read all their team capsules, you’d think the scout was writing 50 years ago.

Dan Szymborski: It takes awhile to weed out this type of stereotypical crap

CamdenWarehouse: Cat update?

Dan Szymborski: I put the hedgehog in my pocket so Cassie gave up and wandered off. I gave Galileo some fresh mozzarella before chat, so he probably won’t start bothering me for dinner for awhile yet

Dan Szymborski: Mercutio was meowing about something and Cassie went and chased him

Nicholas Strauss: Isn’t “BobSteve” the lamest nickname in ages?

Dan Szymborski: All the name + y nicknames

Dan Szymborski: New personal nickname: I saw someone call Yan Gomes Yam Gomes on Twitter accidentally, so now I’m going to call him Sweet Potato Gomes

Dan Szymborski: There’s been no major leaguer nicknamed sweet potato!

Dan Szymborski: potato and hot potato, but no sweet potato

CamdenWarehouse: Why do you keep telling us to march? where are we marching to?

Dan Szymborski: to the beat of just one drum. What might be right for you might not be right for some.

Dan Szymborski: And so long,f arewell.

Dan Szymborski: Meg will murder me if I don’t finish Bogaerts piece, so we gotta stop!

stever20: Was Souza’s injury the absolute worst injury ever for a season ender?  I mean last game of spring training.  just crossing the plate…..

Dan Szymborski: Jason Kendall running on his stump

Dan Szymborski: Tony Saunders

Ben: Do you play historical strategy games? Like the AGEod/Paradox games.

Dan Szymborski: CK2!