Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/13/2019

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: OK, I’m here!

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d like to say something out of my control happened, but I tend to start Twitter rants two minutes before I have to be somewhere

12:07
Matt: The chat post is messed up – showing the HTML code

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Should be fixed now.

12:08
Voldemort: Do you have confidence in Jesus Aguilar to turn things around this season? He’s looked sharper the last week or so.

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s certainly looked better. There’s still hope.

12:08
Voldemort: Aaron Hicks is supposedly being activated today. What’s your outlook on him for the rest of season?

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m cautiously optimistic. I don’t see a fundamental reason that he shouldn’t be playing at least somewhere near where he should be

12:09
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: So…Glasnow out 4-6 weeks with a forearm strain, Honeywell still isn’t pitching, Michaels Zunino and Perez are both on the IL. The catching situation is perhaps OK since they got gifted D’Arnaud, but what’s the best plan for the pitching side of things?

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think they’re going to kinda try to muddle through – they’re not going to make a large acquisition

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And just to head this one off at the pass: for the person or persons asking me questions about the “United States Coup” in Venezuela, let’s just say that you would not like *my* opinion and you can save your time by not asking.

12:12
connor: What is your ETA for Riley, Urias and Monte Harrison to the Big Leagaues?

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think Riley comes up fairly soon.

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s already gotten his first playing time at first and left professionally in the opening weeks of the season

12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think the Braves are clearly looking at geting him into the lineup sooner rather than later

12:13
Kyler: Hey Dan I don’t mean to alarm you but Nick Markakis is at it again. What do you make of his late career offensive resurgence?

12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Dunno, maybe April showers bring Markakis flowers

12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I know it’s a crappy response, but I don’t *know* why Markakis suddenly rocked it early last year, then was sub-replacement, and now is hitting yet again

12:13
LFC Mike: I would have bet everything that Dan would willingly eat a second bowl of SkyLine Chili before Mike Fiers threw his second no hitter…

12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hey, Tim Lincecum has two no-hitters, both AFTER he was a good pitcher

12:14
Voldemort: Is Christian Yelich stealing signs at Miller Park? He’s putting up some crazy home/away splits.

12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You have a park that’s very lefty friendly and small sample sizes. I wouldn’t ready anything into it.

12:14
Robert Muldoon: How much do you use xwOBA? Or how much do you react if a hitter you own has a far greater xwOBA than wOBA?

12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t use it in projections as I have my own thing.

12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But I do quote it as an alternate source

12:15
Hazmat: Is the Lucas Giolito breakout real? Projections don’t seem to be buying it, but FIP, pitch data, and noticeable mechanical changes say it looks legit.

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: YOu’d actually have seen the projection move more if this were the ZiPS year-to-year model rather than the simplified in-year version

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The bump in k rate and the decent bump in velcoity make me very optimistic about giolito

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The changeup has looked nastypants

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ll find a particularly good one while chatting

12:17
jt: Do you know who the second best catcher by fWAR this season is (min 90 PA)? It’s the White Sox’ backup catcher, James McCann with 1.4 fWAR! Do you think there’s anything real to his breakout this year?

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not on that train yet

12:18
snowman: How bad are the Blue Jays? Percentage chance they lose 100 games?

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they’re 100 games bad but they certainly haven’t looked great lately

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Last I checked, ZiPS had them at a .445 roster strength a few days ago

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I can’t run that on the fly

12:18
retirehurdle: Know you’ve been to Bucsdugout before. You see where Vox followed a complaint there by a female poster by hiring a disgraced former priest who advocated men spanking their wives and now they’ve fired all their longtime writers and installed a yankee fan as site manager? So weird.

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I did not see this

12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That seems…less than ideal?

12:22
Starfox: No spoilers. I just gotta say…I’ve never seen a tv series collapse so completely into a heaping pile of rubbish quite like GoT.

12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I will not give spoilers

12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But I don’t think the problem is the plotting. I think the arc is logical. But the pacing has been an absolute tire fire.

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s like they decided to cram 30 episodes into 13

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: but then didn’t do any effort to edit down some things

12:23
Jay Bruce is not afraid: Jose Peraza: One year wonder or extremely slow start?

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think just a slow start, but not as good as 2018

12:23
Jay Bruce is not afraid: Is Jake Bauers better than what we are seeing?

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Better than *this*? Probably.

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But good? Probably not.

12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah, he’s just 23, but how many rocking first base prospects never put up an .800 OPS at *any* stop in the minors?

12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You don’t want your prospects to be hackers, but you also don’t want your minor league hitting prospects to have their top driver of performance in the minors being walk rate

12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Someone tried to argue with me that Bauers was like Nick Johnson

12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And it’s like are you serious? Johnson hit 345/525/548 at age *20* in AA.

12:26
OddBall Herrera: Is the wRC number for PCL players already taking into account the explosion of offense in that league?  Or are there lagging data points from previous seasons that would cause even that number to be inflated?  I am trying to get context for Yordan Alvarez’ 222 wRC+

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That I could not tell you.

12:26
Matt: Is a hotdog really just a self-contained meatloaf?

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No, because there’s no bread emulation and you don’t slice it.

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s in the sausage family, which is independent

12:26
Bread Gardner: What does ZiPS think about Urshela, German, and Voit? Are they Hashtag Actually For Real?

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS thinks Voit is just fine.

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Havne’t looke dat long-term Urshela projections

12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think I was wrong in not being optimistic enough about German

12:27
Del Martin: Is JDM too crazy a ceiling to dream on for Franmil?

12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I hate Ceiling/Floor because there’s too much room for interpretation. Is ceiling a 10% chance? a 1% chance? A 0.1% chance?

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But I think Reyes being *as* good as JDM now is fairly unlikely.

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’ll get his MLB averages up where martinez has been.

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But, of course, J.D. Martinez’s ceiling, by any definition, probably wasn’t J.D. Martinez.

12:29
Desmond: Would you trade Freeman or Hoskins (I have both) for Scherzer in a deep H2H points dynasty?

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If you can trade Hoskins for Scherzer I would

12:29
JD Drew Barrymore: How ya like JP Crawford RoS? Think he could steal a job and run with it or more likely to get full time action after a Gordon/Beckham trade? (not to be confused with a Gordon Beckham trade)

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s too bad that Gordon Beckham isn’t still with the Mariners

12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: True story – I didn’t believe Lew Ford was a real person until well into his first professional season

12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: At the time, the Red Sox had Darren Lewis and Damon Buford

12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They were splitting time fairly evenly in center and people had been calling them Lewford

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: So when people were talking about Lew Ford after the draft, I thought they were talking about keeping Lewford long term.

12:32
: Xander or glasnow ros pts league. I’m pretty set at ss but the arm injuries scare me

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Xander. I love what Glasnow has done, but always worry about a pitcher.

12:34
Jay Bruce is not afraid: Do you think the Pirates will bring up K Hayes any time soon or is Moran enough for now?

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Enough for now

12:34
Bilbo: Any chance the Reds sneak back into the NL playoff hunt? They’re 3rd in NL in run differential so far but  are still 5th in the Central

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s tough, a lot of games are baked in the cake

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and I have a high confidence that at least three teams are better than them.

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Which is a problem when you’re behind.

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s not like the Brewers situation some years ago when they were clearly worse than the teams behind them but they had a lead

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: <iframe src=”” width=”480″ height=”270″ frameBorder=”0″ class=”giphy-embed” allowFullScreen></iframe><p><a href=” GIPHY</a></p>

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hopefully this works, I was trying to quickly find a Giolito changeup that looked almost circle changey in its break

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: SO I’ve been looking at all his swing-and-miss changeups in those two gameday zones while chatting!

12:36
Xolo: What’s going on with Machado this year? Is it just a post-free agency and/or World Series hangover or something more worrisome?

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not worried

12:37
Sandor: Is Joey Votto done?

12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No, but I think the power bouncebacks that happen periodically are done

12:37
RJ: If 1995 Greg Maddux were magically transported to 2019, would he strikeout more batters than in his own time? What is the proper way to think about the strikeout era? Does a rising tide lift all boats?

12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yes, he’d strikeout more guys

12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If you don’t adjust for league strikeout rates

12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Existing pitchers also had their strikeouts decline much slower than the normal aging curve

12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I actually think Glavine would have more issues

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think the age of statcast and pitchfx would shine a brighter light on some of the outside space the veteran umps gave him

12:39
Bigfoot Erotica: Can you confirm if Josh Bell is real, spectacular?

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to fake this kind of power

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And I’ve been a Bell skeptic in the past

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: His minor league career felt to Yonder Alonsish.

12:40
robertobeers: A Dan, A Plan, A Chat, Tahcanalpanada

12:40
Tyler Vandergriff : What I supposed to make about defensive metrics? Fangraphs and UZR gave Matt Duffy as like a top 8 third baseman, DRS has him as a minus defender, and BP’s FRAA has him only behind Chapman!

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Don’t take small sample size defense too seriously

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: In terms of predictive value

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: A year of defensive stats has about the same predictive value as two months of offensive stats

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: So six weeks of offensive stats…do the math.

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Seriously, I’m not your Division King.

12:41
robertobeers: At this point, standard doesn’t really have any “fun” matchups, the wild format feels the freshest. What decks are you having fun playing?

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Been mostly in Arena

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I usually enjoy Standard for a month and then play Arena the rest of the time.

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I do enjoy mucking around with Dragon Paladin, but it’s not very good.

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I really wish Priest/Paladin had been given board clears this expansion.

12:43
Chuncey Wiggins: I’m not sure if you’re the correct person to ask this or not, but if a first baseman could fit a baseball completely inside his mouth, would he have to tag a baserunner with his face? Or would any appendage work?

12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Wouldn’t work.

12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: MLB explicitly defines tags as having the ball in the hand or the glove.

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Think of the ball as a magic out orb.

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And a baseball glove is a conductor of outricity

12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: but anything that’s not a glove or a hand, has outrical resistance.

12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think if the player plays without a glove, using his mouth as a glove in normal plays.

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: SO that his mouth becomes a de facto glove, theN I think MLB *should* accept it

12:46
Matt: Yo, Dan, I’m gonna run and grab lunch. Pause the chat for 10-15 minutes. You can make it up on the back end. Thanks

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: YOU KNOW WHEN THE CHAT IS

12:46
LFC Mike: When does Cleveland recognize they need to be a seller? The current outfield is horrible and by the time Clevinger and Kluber are back and healthy  it could be too many games to make up.

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they need to be a seller yet

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m disappointed in how they operated this winter, but the season isn’t a lost cause

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s still 31% in FG to win the division and FG/ZiPS have been close on the AL Central this year

12:47
upstarts: Dan-  At what point do the ROS and beyond projections for guys like Reyes, Dozier, and Yandy Diaz really start to move? Would love a bit of insight into how your system works in regards to new data working its way in.  Thanks!

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The ROS moves pretty quickly! Beyond isn’t updated in-season due to technological limitations, for which I’m working on a workaround.

12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m working on a simpler version of ZiPS, but not as simple as in-season, that FanGraphs can run automatically

12:48
tj: Andrelton Simmons has not struck out in his last 60 PA – is he the next Willans Astudillo?

12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Simmons is his own thing. Astudillo IS a special snowflake and don’t steal the magic.

12:48
Mark: How impressive is the Yankees record considering the injuries?

12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Quite. The Yankees impressively overengineered their roster and when…stuff…hit the fan, they were better prepared than most teams.

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: GREETINGS, CLEVALND

12:49
Appa Yip Yip: Something appears to be wrong with the FanGraphs WAR calculations Vlad is in the negatives plz fix thx

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Think of it as a rubber band. Gotta pull it back a little before you launch!

12:50
John: Favorite deck to play in the current meta? Any cards that you want to see nerfed?

12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the meta stinks, it’s just not my favorite type of meta. Waggle Pick should probably be five mana

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think Shadowstep can be abused better than Whirlwind and Death’s Bite was essentially the same but with Whirlwind instead.

12:52
The Ghost of Wade Boggs: Did you talk to your mother yesterday? How is she doing?

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: We went to a brunch at a place called El Meson

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Steak Encebollado – Beef Filet with Tomatoes, Onions, & Chimichurri Sauce
Jamaican Jerk Pork Tenderloin
Fish Tacos with Mango Salsa – Sauteed Mild Filet with Tortillas & all the Fixings
Pollo de Los Andes – Boneless Chicken in Artichokes, Sun Dried Tomates & Parmesan
Egg & Cheese Omelet
Saffron Rice
Manchego Scalloped Potatoes
Garbanzos with Spinach
Assorted Salads
Fresh Fruit Salpicon
Jamaican Jerk Slaw
Assorted Crusty Breads, Coffee cakes, & Sweet Breads

12:53
[insert here]: At what point do the Angels release Cozart?

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they need to.

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Though he shoudl be losing some playing time

12:53
Jeff mcnugs: What the **** is going on with Brandon nimmo ??

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be OK. I do think he’s likely to have a down year and not a quick bounceback

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: WHen I was looking at him the other day I thought “hey, his BABIP must be crazy low” and was distressed that it wasn’t

12:54
Marc: At what point in the season does Urshela’s performance warrant an article? I’m assuming he hasn’t got one yet because of the still-relatively small sample size, but at some point  a guy literally doubling his career wrc+ is noteworthy

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Articles depend on what suits a writer’s fancy!

12:54
greg: Cat update, please.

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Galileo is upstairs and I’m mad at because he opened the fridge and got into the last of my gorgonzola

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Mercutio was meowing to get into the laundry room and I chased him off because he’s not allowed in there

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: because he crawls into the ceiling and he’s too dumb to get himself out, so I have to climb on top of the washing machine and sweep him out with a broom

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Cassiopeia was upstairs sleeping in the living room. I have the hedgehog in my pocket so that she can’t bother me with it while I’m trying to chat

12:55
James: George Springer for MVP? And with his age when he hits free agency next year, would he be a candidate to take an extension and not risk the market?

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Astros have leverage at this point

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s obviously not getting a Harper/Machado contract, but I think he’ll still do fine

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If not as lavishly as players like him would get treated in the past

12:57
Bones: Piggyback onto the Rays question, seems to my eye McKay could plug right in and help a somewhat beleaguered rotation. Any prognostication on if/when this may happen?

12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s been very good, but I don’t think the Rays will try it if it looks like Glasnow will come back without setbacks

12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think if they were going to squeeze out some short-term value, they’d back off a bit on the hitting focus

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That they are still playing him at DH makes me think they’re still thinking more long-term with him than short-term boost

1:01
Tito: What are your thoughts on the Rays’ usage of Chirinos and Beeks this year?  It seems thus far to be a huge success for the follower concept.

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Reality certainly isn’t thwarting them. I think they’re happy with wha thtey’re doing

1:01
Jim Leyland Palmer: Dan, you buying a Matt Carpenter turn around?

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yes

1:02
Dusty: When do you think the Twins will drop the hammer on the rest of the NL Central and American League as a whole and promote generational prospect Wander Javier?

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Don’t make me punch you.

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: What started this meme?

1:03
Jason: How do I send a message

1:03
GSon: First Hanley.. Now Cargo.. Do you believe the Indians are going to let Cargo find gainful employment elsewhere while moving Jake Bauers to a permanent OF spot?.. then bringing up the kids that are raking (Oscar Mercado & Bobby Bradley) in Columbus for the vacated OF spot and DH/1B, respectively?

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They *really* should have Mercado up at this point.

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Chase upside.

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Because CarGo, Hanley, those guys had about none at this point

1:04
Imperialism Despiser: Dan its obvious it’s a coup attempt and they’re trying to over throw a democratically elected government. Please elaborate your opinion

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The coup was the 2018 election. Not answering any more of these, so you can knock it off.

1:05
Eminor3rd: In Christian Yelich, are we seeing what it looks like when a prospect reaches the 100% outcome in his range of potential? And, if so, how rare is that?

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The thing is, there are way more improbable ones.

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yelich was supposed to be good and looked like he could breakout

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think Jose Bautista becoming a feared slugger was way less likely

1:06
Buff: So why isn’t Keston Hiura up yet? Is is defense, strikeouts, or some hope that Travis Shaw turns it around? Was this last weekend off a last effort to reboot Shaw?

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think caution about how the roster works, but I think he’s coming soon.

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I thought it would be later in the year, but I’m getting my prospect sense is tingling

1:07
Gordon Tremeschko: Is Jose Martinez the worst defensive outfielder getting regular starts out there?

1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He *could* be with Kemp gone for now at least

1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Adam Jones, in a very small sample size, has been pretty lousy too in a corner

1:08
Bortky: Have pitchers figured out Andujar? Seems like it a little bit, do you see him having the ability to make an adjustment

1:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: WAY too soon

1:08
question: is the steamer and zips updated daily for minor leaguers?  Or are the zips cacluations shown on prospects at bottom of stats based on previous season results?  How up to date are the zips and steamer calcs on prospects.

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS in-season isn’t included since FG doens’t have a built in minor league translation. It’s one of the several projects I’m working on

1:09
Matt: One of the rotographs chatters comped Franmil to Khris Davis, and that seems…right on.

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: A much better comp

1:09
[insert here]: Thoughts on D Fletcher’s K/swing and miss rates. Halos have changed their philosophy and it seems to fit him perfectly

1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He wasn’t bad last year but he’s been even more unreasl this year

1:13
mark: just spent 5 minutes trying to figure out what “ros” means…

1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It refers to Sigur Rós, the band that secretly owns FanGraphs

1:14
LDs: Is it crazy to say Mondesi is close to Lindor in value in standard 5×5?

1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d rather have Lindor, but it’s not insane to think that he might be in the neighborhood

1:14
Deepak: Hi Dan, anyway I can get the Zips projected standings through the years of 2008-2018. Just need the projected wins. Haven’t had any luck searching for it.

1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: email me! DSzymborski gmail

1:14
Dees: Do you think the Dansby Swanson breakout is real?

1:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Likely yes

1:15
Baseball Yeti: Who is the best player comp for each of your cats? Do any of them get to be Trout?

1:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No, it woudl be unreaslistic to call any of my cats as comparable to Trout

1:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d call Galileo Adrian Beltre

1:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure how this even works

1:16
CamdenWarehouse: Why do I think you have thought before on tagging with the ball in one’s mouth?

1:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If it’s ridiculous, I’ve thought of it

1:16
Kiermaier’s Hallitosis: If a Burrito was baked in a cake would it still be a burrito or a newfangled dessert?

1:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: it woudl be a burrito, the structure as a whole would be a cake that has a burrito

1:16
Dan: Is there any way to look at the depth charts from the past? I’m really interested in how teams over/under perform expectations and how injuries/trade affect playing time.

1:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think we’re set up for that.

1:16
Chuncey Wiggins: So the hidden ball trick, would require the player concealing the baseball inside their mouth to spit it into his glove/hand and then apply the slobber-ball to the baserunner. Seems unhygenic. If the players union is wise, they’ll protect players from this.

1:17
trey: Any chance, there will be Fringe Five articles in 2019? I enjoyed them a lot in past years.

1:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ll ask if someone was going to do them.

1:18
Gub Gub: If you were a juggler, what is the last thing you would practice with before attempting chainsaws?  AND DON’T SAY FAKE CHAINSAWS!

1:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: electric turkey carving knives

1:18
Cpins: Which error bar is larger – human umps or humans that draw the top/bottom lines of the robs-ump box to account for differing player heights/stances?

1:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I would assume the former because of time

1:19
Tommy Kahnle: Hey, I’m good again!

1:20
Matt: Did you know that El Meson is Spanish for “The Meson”?

1:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I believe that its’ a restaurant-specific term

1:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and there’s an accent

1:21
Greg: Josh Donaldson gonna get a Qualifying Offer after the season?

1:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He ought to if he’s stilll playing like he is

1:21
Gub Gub: Would you like to be referred to as The Breaker of Churros?

1:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m too far east to be in prime churro territory

1:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: how about The Breaker of Markov Chains

1:22
LFC Mike: Mercutio better at laundry than the other cats?…How is he at folding a pleated sheet?..i hate those….

1:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Mercutio has no real skills.

1:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s a very friendly cat.

1:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But he’s kinda dumb and kinda incompetent at being a cat.

1:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s still not quite sure where dinner is typically served and he’s 10.

1:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The kitchen/dining room/living room is a circle and he still has’t quite figured it out

1:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Cassiopeia surprises him every time by circling around and sneaking up on him

1:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: When I closed the kitchen/dining room door so I could put in some wood screws

1:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: he started meowing to get into the kitchen

1:23
robertobeers: Have you ever worked in a professional office setting with other people?

1:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I have not.

1:24
Marcus: Do you have any tips for getting through the work day while jet lagged?

1:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: BUSINESS HAMMOCKS

1:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

1:25
chet: Luis Urias should be back up by now, right? Kinsler is bad and this is a tight race

1:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Soon I have to think

1:26
Lou: When does the QO become more valuable to the Giants than the prospects they can get for Bumgarner?

1:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No, I think they can still get something of more value

1:27
LDs: What percentage of questions in a chat would you estimate you get to answer, on average?

1:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 10-20% on busy days

1:27
Trent: Nationals or Reds: which team is more likely toast at this point?

1:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: REds I think. Nats still have better now-talent

1:27
Pat Borders Patrol: Twofer: (1) How is it that the Red Sox keep scraping together some semblance of awesome with that bullpen (Thornburg is a dumpster fire, but hey! They use him in those blow outs!)?

(2) Kimbrel thoughts? I know last we all chatted on this the prevailing thought was … after the draft … but he has just fallen off the radar as of late (or it feels like he has). Still think he will land somewhere this season?

1:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he will

1:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Kimbrel

1:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The Red Sox are doing a good job scraping, but it’s shallow and an injury or two could be a frigging disaster.

1:28
Gub Gub: What if The Twins are the government of Venezuela, man….and Wander Javier is all the Vuvuzuelan people?

1:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Dammit, sneaking in Venezuela with a Wander meme!

1:29
Cj: Your response above about zips having its own thing instead of xwoba got me thinking… Any chance you’d consider doing an article deep dive on some small nugget in zips and explaining your reasoning / how that component works? Obviously you can’t give away your secret sauce, but as a programming / stats nerd I’d love to read about even a tiny segment of the system

1:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I do talk quite a bit about stuff in side ZiPS in piece when its relevant!

1:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t like to do articles specifically *about* ZiPS without an “in” because, to be honest, I find those a boring read.

1:29
Waguespackmybags: First most chunkiest lineup that comes to mind? Tellez/Guerrero/Smoak are pretty good but I’m looking for more historically big-boned lineups

1:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That woudl be a fun piece!

1:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Lineups by BMI

1:30
Morbo: Dammit Dan, I know you said to not ask any more Venezuela questions, but now I’m really curious Is your position that Nicolas Maduro used intimidation, voter suppression, and military support to rig the 2018 election in his favor? (Because i think that is a reasonable interpretation of the events) Instead of posting my question a simple Yes, Morbo or No, Morbo will satisfy my curiosity.

1:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I hate you all.

1:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yes.

1:30
Matt W: There’s been a few writers at Rotographs doing weekly Fringe Five-esque articles, though with more of a fantasy bent.

1:30
pirates hurdles: Dan, rotographs has picked up the Fringe Five  theme and is calling it Peripheral Prospects.

1:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I am aware, but I was thinking more of the exact thing without the fantasy angle

1:30
Matt: Breaker of Markov Chains…that’s kinda….random

1:30
Jonny: Where can I get some business hammocks?!  The hammock district?

1:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hammock complex on third.

1:31
Steven: Dynasty keeper league, just offered Jose Ramirez for George Springer. Seems like I should jump at it, but is Jose OK?

1:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It *really* depends on what the keeper terms are like.

1:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The longer-term the league, the better to keep Ramirez

1:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Unless you’re a good team and you’re really risk-averse as a result, I think I’d take the deal.

1:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Springer qualifying at CF doesn’t really matter

1:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But Ramirez usually picking up 2B qualification and in the right theoretical position SS COULD

1:32
Pat: Why does someone in a baseball chat care that much about Dan’s opinion on Maduro & the Venezuelan situation? or are you now the Secretary of State & I missed the announcement?

1:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah, it seems an odd thing to ask a baseball analyst who *rarely* talks about Twitter.

1:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: errr, rarely talks about politics on Twitter

1:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: In fact, I probably talk about politics *less* often than most.

1:33
Bread Gardner: What if everyone just gets a doggy or kitty and is friends and we don’t have violent revolutions and stuff.

1:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And really, I warned you guys.

1:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

1:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And on that, time to head off on the ol’ dusty trail. I have a Rays piece to write!

1:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No spiel, you guys should konw where to find me if you’ve listened to me ramble for 90 minutes.

1:35
Morbo: I was interested solely because of the previous questions the historical references/analogies Dan puts in his pieces like the Cleveland Underdog article

We hoped you liked reading Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/13/2019 by Dan Szymborski!

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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DustyColorado
Member
DustyColorado

Thank you for answering my question today, Dan.

I’d like to apologize for mistakenly typing NL Central instead of AL Central. Not nearly as gratuitous a mistake as the Twins are making by leaving Wander Javier in the minors for service time manipulation reasons but I’m still sorry. My bad.