Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/21/2020

Dan Szymborski: And the chat has begun, sayeth the clock.

Dan Szymborski: And as powerful as I like to imagine I am — though I am not — I cannot stop time.

Dan Szymborski: And it’s really hard to even break a watch!

Carl: Do you happen to know what Eric means when he projects a player as a “second division regular”? I keep missing his chats to ask. Who is a current MLB player that would constitute a “second division regular”?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have the context, but before divisions, contenders and non-contenders were widely called first division and second division in the vernacular

Dan Szymborski: so a second division regular, if Eric is using it as I would expect him to, is a starter on a bad team who wouldn’t really push a contender towards the playoffs.

Dan Szymborski: So think guys like Randal Grichuk or Colin Moran

BeefLoaf108: Dan, IF MLB does actually play a shortened season, what avant-garde rule amendments or format amendments (playoffs or other) would you like to see them test out?

Dan Szymborski: Pitchers who intentionally throw baseballs at batters are immediately sent for vaccine challenge tests.

Beane: *looks at “Team Top Prospects” list*
*looks at Boston Red Sox entry dated December*
*looks at 5 remaining entries sitting empty 6 months later in midst of scramble for articles*
*looks at you*

Dan Szymborski: Hey, Dan doesn’t write them!

Guest: Just curious: has the pandemic made you rethink some of your libertarian beliefs (eg, “maybe it’d be good to have a national strategy or orders)? Or, on the flip side, do you think it has reinforced them in ways (eg, “people should be taking more personal responsibility to avoid spreading this”)?

Dan Szymborski: At their core, my beliefs are based on philosophy, so there’s not much change there.

Dan Szymborski: Though I have too much of a pragmatic streak to go all-in on *practice* there. In the real world, I’m the wishy-washy guy who votes for Tsongases and Hogans.

Abe: Its really frustrating to see the content most fantasy podcasts, including Fangraphs is putting out. There really isn’t relevant fantasy information or player profiles left to break down and help us?

Dan Szymborski: It’s a tone thing – people aren’t really focused in on the season yet.

Dan Szymborski: So the pure 2020 season pieces don’t make sense until we get to closer.

Guest: This is all going to end with Trump “ordering” (realistically just complaining about them on twitter) ballplayers to go back to work, isn’t it? If that happens, do you think he’ll lose some of the support he’s enjoyed from MLB players? It seems to be the one sport that really hasn’t irked him with protests, outspoken opposition,etc.

Dan Szymborski: I’m sure people would just ignore him.

Billy Beane: Dan, you do the Bunker 11 Easter egg in Warzone yet?

Dan Szymborski: I have not!

Dan Szymborski: Warzone’s been a little temperamental for me, it’s been crashing to desktop when updating shaders.

Dan Szymborski: I know it’s not a hardware problem, nothing wrong in any other game and I’ve stress-tested my GPU extensively.

Dan Szymborski: I did finally get in later last night.

Compliments to the chef: Fangraphs is Far and Away the best. Adding Nicole Kidman would be a Plus. I appreciate you in particilar mostly being non political.

Dan Szymborski: I think she’s a bit too pricey for us!

Dan Szymborski: It’s not that I don’t have political beliefs, I just personally subscribe to stick to sports (and stick to craziness)

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have any problems with anyone else feeling differently.

Dan Szymborski: Everything’s so nasty and partisan and I *like* being someone that people all over the spectrum can read without them feeling like I’m bashing them for their beliefs.

Dan Szymborski: Unless they think Ian Desmond is good, of course.

Guest: Isn’t the main argument against “the owners are losing money without fans” just simply “why would they even consider holding a season, then?” I’d be hard pressed to think anyone could say that they’re doing it out of magnanimous generosity of spirit with a straight face.

Dan Szymborski: People have weird ideas.

Guest: with all the bean talk, have you actually ever posted your chili recipe? Would love to see it because I still don’t understand how you can make it with *just* meat and peppers. Don’t you need some broth or something at least?

Dan Szymborski: Broth? You ain’t making a stew here!

Dan Szymborski: I don’t use a specific recipe.

Dan Szymborski: err, soup, not stew

Dan Szymborski: Finely chopped beef, a bit of suet if you can find it (lard if you don’t), a couple tablespoons of masa harina, every chili you can get your hands on, and one of those little cans of chipotle en adobo.

Dan Szymborski: Dump it in a crockpot or pressure cooker.

Szan Dymborski: Are you the chili heretic?

Dan Szymborski: Your autocorrected turned hero into heretic.

Quarantino Martinez: So the O’s are among the biggest losers if the season goes AND if the season gets canceled? Figures.

Dbo: Chat! Chat! Chat! Chat!

Dbo: I’m supposed to do a data analysis project for my masters program and was going to use ZiPs, any suggestions on a model I can create so I can share my inaccurate results?

Dan Szymborski: It would be interesting to focus more on a *decision* model

Dan Szymborski: If that’ sin your scope.

Dan Szymborski: MOdeling how the decisions are made would be highly interesting and a cool challenge.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has to do that somewhat, but it’s more focused on being a predictive model in terms of performance

brad: Dan what happens when baseball opens on July 4th, then on July 21, Bregman tests positive and then July 25th, 20 more Astros players test positive?

Dan Szymborski: Not sure, really.

Dan Szymborski: But if it were *this* virulent, I think everyone would already have had it.

Dan Szymborski: It’s very contagious, but it’s not measles

Dbo: Is melted ice cream a soup? I feel like soups have to be savory and not sweet, which is why cereal isn’t a soup

Dan Szymborski: Dessert Soup can be a thing

Dan Szymborski: And BTW Dbo, if there’s no season, you STILL have to use that fantasy team name, but next year

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: Why didn’t you include the Twins on your teams with the most to lose from no 2020 piece?  THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT QUESTION OF OUR TIME or just nitpicking, one or the other.

Dan Szymborski: I could have, I just cut off the list at five!

Dan Szymborski: or was it 6?

Dan Szymborski: I try not to leave Meg unwieldy 3000 word pieces to deal with

Ursine Orsulak: I was rooting for the lg twins and then their factory in India killed a bunch of people. Do I:Change horses midstream, quit the league entirely, or give in to the nihilism of capital?

Dan Szymborski: 2020 is about embracing the void!

Guest: EW’s most recent episode talked about Biff’s betting book. If you had a *perfect* system for betting on baseball that was literally never wrong, you’d never share it or tell anyone about it though, right? at some point, Vegas would catch on and would make it difficult for you to keep your edge, so you’d just try to maximize your profits in as short amount of time as possible.

Dan Szymborski: I would never share it or tell anyone.

Dan Szymborski: I’d get enough money to live comfortably for a lifetime and then stop.

Brian Wilson, Ashland, Oregon…: Good morning.  There are LOTS of unknowns in this upcoming 2020 MLB draft, and tons of pitchers to choose from.  Doesn’t it make sense for teams to lean more towards “tooled-up” position players rather than so many pitchers that will be bountiful?

Dan Szymborski: I think I’d go with safer players this year, simply because of the unknown of what player development will look like this year or next year.

Dan Szymborski: Because here’s what I think is what’s happening:

Dan Szymborski: Without a very quick vaccine, I think the coronavirus heralds the end of a minor league era in baseball, one as stark as the transition from independent minors to clubs/leagues connected with teams.

Dan Szymborski: There can be baseball without a vaccine because there’s so much money in it.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not the case with the minors. MLB will simply wait and see which minor league teams still exist after a year or two.

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: On a scale of 1-10, you excitement level for the Snyder Cut of Justice League is _____?

Dan Szymborski: 7

Billy Beane: Dan what’s your proportion of playing Plunder vs Battle Royale in Warzone?

Dan Szymborski: About 90% Plunder. I find Plunder more fun, personally. You get a lot more action and get to choose your weapons and you can do more risky things because all you lose is some virtual money and 15 seconds.

Dan Szymborski: Like in Plunder last night, there were two full squads fighting over a drop point so I divebombed a helicopter into them and the other three players on my squad could then run in and finish off survivors and we looted like $700,000

Dan Szymborski: That’s the kind of thing that Battle Royale doesn’t encourage!

brad: Do the yanks gain or lose with a lost season?  Off the books are Tanaka, Ellsbury, Paxton and Happ. they can bring back Tanaka likely for less per year, and save about $60M with the other three, which they can use that money to sign judge and/or torres long term.  hopefully then Judge has surgery to get healthy too. But they lose a season that they can compete

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s a mixed bag with the Yankees.

Rat Day Man: MATT DAMON

Sam: How short do you think the season would need to be for ZIPS to give every team a semi-realistic (at least a 10% chance) at the playoffs?

Dan Szymborski: 40 maybe?

Dbo: What are the chances that Vermin Supreme wins the libertarian nomination tomorrow?

Dan Szymborski: I think Hornberger is the pretty strong favorite.

Dan Szymborski: I’m a small “l” libertarian and have no interest in the wackos.

Guest: that’s interesting re: philosophical beliefs. I’ve always felt libertarianism makes sense from a philosophical standpoint but have been troubled by the practical endgame (ie, no FDA to make sure our meat is people. Peeeeeeooplleeeee!)

Dan Szymborski: I think of it as a *goal* rather than an immediate prescription.

Guest: Do you have any hitting tips for The Show? As someone new to the game, wow, it’s hard!

Dan Szymborski: Be younger! You’ll adjust, but it helps to have reflexes of the young.

Dan Szymborski: My game reflexes are notably slower at 41.9 than at 21.9

TomBruno23: I love baseball, but cannot get into KBO. Does that make me a racist?

Dan Szymborski: I think that would depend on WHY you don’t like KBO

dezre: Kudos, a Far and Away joke! Great movie. Dan, do you play any baseball simulation games? Or does ZiPS fully scratch your sim itch?

Dan Szymborski: OOTP and DMB

TomBruno23: Do you think the word “scofflaw” is underused in today’s lexicon?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: As are rapscallion and highwayman.

Dan Szymborski: “I got carjacked”

Dan Szymborski: vs.

Dan Szymborski: “I was waylaid by a highwayman!”

Smoking aces: Any idea when we will see another update on the state of Fangraphs? How are things?

Dan Szymborski: When Dave feels it’s time to share something, I’m sure he will!

TomBruno23: Any thoughts on the Chuck E. Cheese-Pasqually’s Pizza controversy?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think there’s anything wrong with it really as long as they’re not lying.

Dan Szymborski: Besides, I can’t get over the fact that Chuck E. Cheese’s full name is Charles Entertainment Cheese.

Dan Szymborski: And the reason that Chuck E. Cheese celebrates birthdays is that he was unloved orphan who never had people that loved him enough to celebrate his birthday as a child.

Dan Szymborski: THAT IS SUCH A BACKSTORY FOR A KID’S PIZZA ARCADE MASCOT

Dan Szymborski: I do wish there was an old school arcade nearby.

Dan Szymborski: As an adult, I can just get $100 worth of quarters just because I want to and play there all day.

hscer: Ian Desmond…had good seasons. A while ago.

TomBruno23: Has FG considered a piece titled, “Dan Szymborski: An Oral History” ?

Dan Szymborski: There aren’t a lot of Dan mysteries.

Sam: Not sure if you’ve answered this before but what do you believe the proper consistency of oatmeal is?

Dan Szymborski: toasted, in honey bunches, with almonds.

Dbo: Did you just imply that chili isn’t a stew?

TomBruno23: The Mandalorian bored the crap out of me. I said it.

TomBruno23: Have you picked a favorite in Jelle’s Marble Runs yet?

Dan Szymborski: Now THAT I’m u nfamiliar with

Guest: I don’t really trust any gambling experts or advice, for that reason. If you were that good, wouldn’t you just keep it to yourself?

Dan Szymborski: I have made money in gambling, but I prefer writing. And I’ve sold data to the house and the HOUSE is the party to be.

Dbo: I can’t wait for them to get rid of post game handshakes and instead have mock lightsaber duels at the end of each game

Jason N: In the post-vaccine, robot-ump world does Austin Hedges earn a major league roster spot?

Dan Szymborski: I think we’re still a way to robots

greg: Cat update please.

Dan Szymborski: Last I saw, Mercutio was in the living room after winning a battle with Justinian for the ottoman.

Dan Szymborski: Justinian and Constantine were fighting over the empty box of Sparkle paper towels that has become a fort.

Dan Szymborski: (I ordered like a thing of 48)

Dan Szymborski: Cassiopeia was watching the cardinals that hang around my house from one of the back rooms after fuming off when she was waiting by the dry food bowl but Justinian got there first when I poured extras.

greg: Have you played stellaris? Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: Fun game, and I have played a lot!

Dan Szymborski: Though CKIII is still my favorite paradox game

Dan Szymborski: I’m at 454 hours of Stellaris but 846 of Crusader Kings II

Dan Szymborski: though both haven’t been played since before the winter.

Dan Szymborski: I played through all the Legend of Heroes Trails games, including the fan translation of the two Crossbell games that have not yet been translated. Then I played the PC release of Trails of Cold Steel III, followed by the Japanese Trails of Cold Steel IV on PS4, which will not be released in English on PC until early 2021.

Dan Szymborski: With the pandemic raging and me being overweight and not as young as I used to be, I thought it would be a good idea to hedge my bets and finish that story arc!

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Wait does “second division regular” not just mean “low-end regular?” Like if I were to call, I dunno, Eric Sogard before last year a “second-tier starter?”

Dan Szymborski: I think now we’re mixing up all the terms

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: 7 is both somehow much lower and much higher than I would’ve guessed

TomBruno23: Remember the Senior Professional Baseball Association? That league was the best.

The gig is up: The coronavirus is all a ploy set up by the Orioles organization to minimize their losses on the Chris Davis contract by getting more WAR out of him for a cancelled 2020 season than if he’d actually taken the field.

Bill G: Both Baseball reference and MLB.com have declared that OOTP is the most realistic baseball simulation software available.  I would like to see Fangraphs do an independent analysis of the various simulation programs (OOTP, DMB, etc) and provide their own ranking!  Thanks for the consideration.

Dan Szymborski: DMB’s simulation focus is individual games of baseball more than OOTP

Dan Szymborski: While OOTP seeks to get the whole framework

Walter F. Lazarz: If the KBO is playing why is MLB not playing?

Dan Szymborski: They’ve been more successful with their cases

TomBruno23: Last night I was desperate for a snack and, as a vegan (patting myself on the back) microwaved a veggie dog, wrapped it inside the end piece from a loaf of wheat bread, slapped some ketchup on it and threw it down. How ashamed should I be?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not even sure why you’re hear instead of opening your veins in a hot bath like a defeated Roman general.

dezre: For the show. Take pitches! And just look for balls up in the zone. Work favorable counts, and you’ll get them to hit…

Yankees: I would agree it’s mixed bag. I think the Yankees have a higher chance of being top-level in 2021 than the Trashcans, which is automatically an advantage, but woof, never wish away a year of window.

Milestone: What’s one milestone longterm we end up not seeing because of what is probably a 1/2 season? Who ends up with McGriff’s 493 HR, or 2,995 hits or some such?

Dan Szymborski: I did do the full season missed milestone!

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t done half year

Sam: Does Chuck E Cheese have the most unnecessarily dark backstory of any fictional character ever?

Dan Szymborski: Babar

Dan Szymborski: Smurfette

Dan Szymborski: Seriously, go look up Smurfette on Wikipedia.

Numpty: Wouldn’t a dessert soup be a second division regular dessert?

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t say it was GOOD

hscer: I doubt those who have been carjacked are much inclined to wax poetic about the nature of their experience.

Dan Szymborski: Well, not immediately

Dbo: What’s your ranking of Chilis, Applebee’s, and TGI Friday’s

Dan Szymborski: Probably that order, but I’m not really into that restaurant genre

Sam: Not the answer I expected but I respect your oatmeal take. I disagree but I respect it

TomBruno23: Catch up on Last Week Tonight from Sunday. Jelle’s is hitting the mainstream. https://wgntv.com/sports/jelles-marble-runs-races-into-mainstream/

hscer: Honey Bunches of Oats would be the greatest cereal if they didn’t break up into way-too-tiny pieces about 40% of the way through the box. That shortcoming is like the Charles Barkley three point shot of cereals.

Dan Szymborski: You know what cereal amuses me?

Dan Szymborski: Rice Krispies.

Dan Szymborski: If you grind up a box of Rice Krispies in a food processor, it becomes like two tablespoons of powder.

Dan Szymborski: The only food more fraudulent is lettuce!

Dan Szymborski: Where ten pounds of spinach reduces into one serving in 45 seconds on the stove.

Dan Szymborski: err spinach

Dan Szymborski: but spinach in that sentence

hscer: I’ve played Stellaris. It was my first Paradox game besides Cities (which I only have because SimCity started to suck), I lasted 20 minutes, and it turned me off all Paradox forever. So…that wasn’t ideal for them.

Dan Szymborski: Cities is terrific!

Dan Szymborski: Sorry about your Paradox experience. What was it that you didn’t like?

Dbo: Rice Krispie Cereal was the best though!

Numpty: Other second division desserts for me include baklava and, yes I’ll say it, BROWNIES.

Dan Szymborski: I love baklava

Bailey: Do you think they’ll still televise KBO when MLB starts?

Dan Szymborski: I hope so.

Numpty: Under what circumstances have you processed Rice Krispies?

Dan Szymborski: I thought I had panko and I did not.

Dan Szymborski: This one time

hscer: When they designed Stellaris’ tutorial, they didn’t imagine it would be anyone’s first Paradox grand strat.

Dan Szymborski: Crusader Kings II probably simpler.

Dan Szymborski: I’d definitely try CKII before EU

Moe: What will players do without sunflower seeds??  Spitting shells is probably a no-no.

Dan Szymborski: bb gun fights

Dbo: Dessert is definitely at the bottom of courses, unless you include salad/soup course

hscer: at least Rice Krispies still roughly approximate the volume of a grain of rice for about 80-90% of the way

hscer: then they should have made CK2 their free-for-a-weekend game!

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: Read Smurfette’s wiki……..yiiiiiiiiiiiiiikes

hscer: Smurfette on Wikipedia: “This article possibly contains original research. (June 2009)”

Cat Latos: Cat update please

Dan Szymborski: It’s above

Guest: One of the difficult things about grocery shopping online during all this is trying to discern appropriate produce weights. Do you know how little 1 lb of green beans is?

Dan Szymborski: OH GOD I HAVE ANSWERED EVERY QUESTION

hscer: oh no what do we do now

Dan Szymborski: Anyone have any poppers?

hscer: besides…end the chat, which seems too reasonable a course

Sam: What’s on tap for tomorrow’s MLB the Show stream?

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t looked at the games yet!

Guest: uhhhhhh what is…. I mean, how do you…. I’m choking

Dan Szymborski: Hey, we’ll always annoying Szymemes.

Dan Szymborski: My latest bit of obnoxiousness is Boba Chette.

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: And Field of Dreams plot synopses by neural network.

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski:

Sam: You get to give one historical player improved health, but you have to give a comparable modern player those injury problems (e.g. you can give Koufax Kershaw’s health but Kershaw retires at 31 with an arthritic elbow). Who’s your swap?

Dan Szymborski: Can I save Ed Delahanty from railroad-related deaths and then give that to a modern player, who will simply fly in a plane because it’s not a 1920s murder mystery novel?

Numpty: What other food processor exploits of yours might surprise us?

Dan Szymborski: Not sure if there’s any

Dan Szymborski: Though I like to puree celery for pasta sauce because I hate chunks of celery

Moe: So the Astros scandal was huge news before the pandemic, even outside of the baseball world.  Now they will completely avoid the wrath of the fans.  What can we do to express our disgust?

Dan Szymborski: Give htem polio?

Guest: how long did you play baseball? when/why did you quit?

Dan Szymborski: high school. because I sucked too much to go beyond

Dbo: I don’t know what to do now, I need an adult!

Guest: not to be morbid, but what would happen to ZiPS if something happened to you? do you have instructions for someone to come into your house and send the file to Appleman or something?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t given it enough thought honestly

Guest: rank according to theme songs ONLY: full house, family matters, perfect strangers, saved by the bell, night court, family ties

Dan Szymborski: perfect strangers, full house, night court, family ties, family matters, saved by the bell

hscer: I don’t remember the wooden spaceship in GoT I mean FoD

Guest: do you plan out meals for a week and do all of your grocery shopping one day, shop for daily needs, or a hodgepodge of those approaches?

Dan Szymborski: Kind of a mix, though I do only order groceries once a week

Sam: Yes that’s acceptable but a player still does in a plane crash

Dan Szymborski: THAT WASN’T PART OF THE DEAL, THE INJURY IS SPECIFICALLY RAILROAD TRACK RETINOPATHY

Guest: dan this celery take is your worst yet. Celery is there FOR its texture! You might as well just omit it from the recipe!

Dbo: Gumbo is just southeastern chili

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: Golden Girls is the best TV theme song.  @me

hscer: Sam with baseball’s version of the trolley problem

Defenestrater: How do you think Jerry Dipoto is doing with his trade detox?

Dan Szymborski: Not well, I assume he’s paid per trade.

hscer: I question the second premise of Moe’s question.

Dan Szymborski: There’s also growing pains.

Dan Szymborski: To finish the chat, I will record the Growing Pains theme song.

Dan Szymborski: https://soundcloud.com/dan-szymborski/growing-pains/s-giAA73ZFVDf

hscer: how is there an actual semi-famous person named Han Soto rather than that being some sort of bad Han Solo/Juan Soto meme

Golden Girls: That’s the best one

Sam: What is railroad track retinopathy? He was kicked off a train for being drunk then died when he fell over Niagra falls

Dan Szymborski: It can be alcohol-induced

Tel: Why does it make headlines when the Red Sox cheaters defend the Astros cheaters?  (SI has a story on how Sale lost zero respect for Cora and thinks Astros scandal was blown out of proportion.)

Dan Szymborski: OK, on that note, it’s time to tend chat for another week.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone!

Dan Szymborski: And come again next week for more shenanigans.