Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/3/21

Dan Szymborski: OMG ITS CHAT TIME

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: In your recent article re: deGrom you stated that, “Shane Bieber‘s 1.63 was the second-best ERA for a qualifying pitcher since Gibson’s in 1968, behind only Dwight Gooden’s 1.53 in 1985.” Why don’t Greg Maddux’s 1.56 in 202IP in 1994 and 1.63 in 209.2IP qualify? Dudeman’s ERA was 1.5959 across 411.2IP in 53 games in those strike-shortened seasons!

Dan Szymborski: That was my screwup (which I’ve fixed). My brain was a little fried and I as trying to compare the excellence to full season ERAs to show how high they ranked, but I messed up the talking point and ranked it *with* the full seasons instead of contrasting

Dan Szymborski: And didn’t bring 1981, 1994, 1995 back in

Dan Szymborski: Everything else should be solid though

Jefferson: Ke’bryan Hayes is back today! How scared is Zips from a two month long wrist injury?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS won’t know about it until the end of the season!

Thomas: I feel like we should be talking more about Marcus Semien? Based on results-so-far, he’s looking like the best signing of the off-season. Basically the ideal pillow contract. What sort of the deal do you think he gets this offseason? Is the Springer contract a reasonable comp (same age, similar career WAR totals – Springer’s been more consistent, but Semien’s hit higher highs.)

Dan Szymborski: Hey, I loved the signing, I think!

Dan Szymborski: Dude had like 11 WAR over two seasons and people wanted to throw it out the window just because of one season in which he was only on a three win pace

Dan Szymborski: one SHORT season

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS had him at 4.2 WAR coming into the season.

Dan Szymborski: The Reds were idiots to not outbid for that

Dan Szymborski: (as were a lot, but especially the Reds)

Guest: Marcus Semien being an absolute steal for the Blue Jays. I thought he’d be good but not “3rd best position player in the league” good.

Kate: Tucker Davidson getting another ML start today.  Looked good in his first start a couple weeks ago and has been really good at AAA.  Think he can hold a ML rotation spot and become something interesting?  Eric’s recent report has the stuff kind of the same, but the command ticking up.

Dan Szymborski: I think there’s a good chance. More necessary to look at him with Soroka’s middle-term being really up in the air

Kate: Odds Bryan Reynolds gets moved at the deadline?  He’s quietly been pretty damn good.

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s more likely than not that he is moved.

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Novel idea for implementing a pitch clock in MLB: rather than require that the pitch be thrown before the timer runs out, how about requiring that the pitcher merely come set? I feel like this would help alleviate some concerns about pitchers rushing their deliveries. If too many guys were to start abusing this (by stepping off the rubber after coming set) a limit could be imposed. Only impose the clock when the bases are empty (like the minors).

Dan Szymborski: You could do that. Though it’s important to pair it with good batters box rules

Dan Szymborski: Batters shouldn’t be granted timeout just so they can rearrange their groinal area

Kate: What do you make of the talk of Willy Adames’ home / away splits from his time with the Rays?  Think there is something legit there where he could see a sizable uptick in offense just from moving to MIL?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t worry too much about home/road splits. Like platoon splits, generic park factors actually will predict future home/road splits far better than a player’s actual home/road splits until you have a *lot* of data.

Dan Szymborski: That being said, it should enhance his average-plus power somewhat

Dan Szymborski: Though Miller a bit better for lefties

Dan Szymborski: I WILL NOT CALL IT AMERICAN FAMILY

Dan Szymborski: They didn’t pay *me* for naming rights

billsaints: Could you see the Rays doing a move for a Scherzer out some such go for it move?

Dan Szymborski: It doens’t really feel like a Nats thing

Dan Szymborski: err a Rays thing

Dan Szymborski: but I don’t think the Nats will unless they REALLY fall out of it

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs:

Dan Szymborski: It’s probably better than cincinnati chili

Jefferson: The lady wants tacos for dinner tonight. How do I convince her that chilli is the better choice?

Dan Szymborski: Wait, I love tacos.

Dan Szymborski: I eat more tacos than chili.

Guest: Has Dansby Swanson finally tapped into his true potential or is this a hot streak? Any underlying metrics to make sense of this?

Dan Szymborski: Ah, the Dansby Swanson Pendulum

Dan Szymborski: All questions about Dansby Swanson are either people wondering if he’s now awesome or if he’s not horrible.

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s just an average player. Which is fine

Kate: Do the Os move Means at the deadline?  Should they?

Dan Szymborski: No. Probably not unless they’re bowled over.

Jefferson: It is June. Which means I can say Jesse Winker breakout is real and he will be a top 10 offensive force in baseball for the next decade

Dan Szymborski: I won’t say top 10, but I think the breakout is real

Royals fan: Whee! I’m having fun. Are you having fun?

Dan Szymborski: Royals are really going full AWESOME OR AWFUL this year

Dan Szymborski: I’m having fun. I hope to have fun up to the moment I cease to be.

Guest: Odds Grayson Rodriguez is the best pitching prospect in baseball?

Dan Szymborski: It’s POSSIBLE. Gore’s been wild and blistery but I’m not knocking him down quite yet

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Good june to you Dan. Did you watch thundercats as a younger “in your prime” dan?

Dan Szymborski: I actually wasn’t into thundercats

DAN CHAT: HI DAN! Good day to you!!!

Dan Szymborski: AND TO YOU AS WELL GOD SIR OR MADAM

Kate: Bader’s done a nice job cutting the Ks, but the quality of contact is kind of blah.  Is this a matter of just making a ton of weak contact?

Dan Szymborski: He’s never been a particularly hard hitter.

Dan Szymborski: I think that’ just part of the package ta this point

CeddyBReady: When topping my traditional tri-tip chili, I use scallions because I hate the taste of red and white raw onions.  Is this acceptable chili behavior.  Crema and scallions?  Thanks, Chili Dan!

Dan Szymborski: NO ONIONS

Dan Szymborski: Beef. Chili peppers. Seasoning. Spoon of masa harina. That’s it.

Dan Szymborski: (and a little water0

Chungus Khan: Dan why do the Rays hate baseball fans so much, teasing us by trading away Adames and then no Brujan and no Franco, they’re just mean.

Dan Szymborski: Since fans don’t come any way, they don’t mind trolling

Kate: Baddoo seems to be stabilizing after a rough couple weeks with a ton of Ks.  But now he seems to have trouble finding consistent PT.  Are the Tigers going to let him play at some point to see what they have?  Has to be a better use of PT than some of these other OFs.

Dan Szymborski: Mazara should NEVER be playing over Baddoo unless the latter has a day off

Dan Szymborski: and really, I’m not sure Mazara should be on the roster any more.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not happening

Adam: How optimistic is ZiPS that guys like Franco, Brujan, Witt will hit right away whenever they’re called up?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is all in on Franco, on the fence with Brujan, Witt still largely up in the air

Dan Szymborski: (great prospect, but he’s also had six weeks of professional baseball)

Dave: Are there any resources you can suggest that can be used as a beginner’s guide to creating baseball projections? It’s something I’ve always wanted to do in order to practice coding and data analysis but don’t really know where to start despite having coding experience.

Dan Szymborski: Start with le basics

Dan Szymborski: https://www.amazon.com/Regression-Predictive-Analytics-Nonparametric-P…

Dan Szymborski: Dig through Marcel and see where you can improve

Go yankees!!!!!: How underrated is Leopold Godowsky? The Passacaglia and E minor sonata are both fabulous!

Dan Szymborski: I love Godowsky!

Dan Szymborski: The studies on Chopin’s Etudes are fun

Dan Szymborski: https://imslp.hk/files/imglnks/euimg/3/3a/IMSLP03690-Godowsky_passacag…

Dan Szymborski: I can’t play the Sonata

Dalton Wilcox: Also…Hello! Thanks for the chat

Dan Szymborski: Yo

Adam: Please cast for us a hypothetical Fangraphs: the Movie.

Dan Szymborski: LETS USE NEURAL NETWORK

Dan Szymborski: Sorry, hopefully payoff works

Dan Szymborski: It’s running

Dan Szymborski: I had to give it a framework to insert names

Dan Szymborski: OK

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: Some of the casting choices are odd

John Olerud’s Helmet: Dear Dan, How are you? I’m fine. If Degrom does beat Bob Gibsons ERA record will people just complain that it’s tainted because hitting has been so bad this year? Love, John Oleruds Helmet

Dan Szymborski: More likely the innings issue

Chungus Khan: Dan may I put a single leaf of cilantro atop my chili, or does it stop being chili then?

Dan Szymborski: Herbs count as seasoning!

Nate: Is Brendan Rodgers ever gonna be a thing? Or has he been Rockied too much at this point?

Dan Szymborski: I think he can be a thing, but I’d like to see a change in scenery

Chungus Khan: What do you listen to your classical music on? Do you have a fancy setup, tube amps and stuff, something more pedestrian?

Dan Szymborski: I have a pair of Marantz speakers and a Denon receiver. The old Intel Core 2 Duo is managing the music system

Dan Szymborski: But more often, I use my main PC, with an external DAC and Sennheiser HD 650 phones

Dan Szymborski: I used Media Monkey to manage library.

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: (I keep FLACs for archival purposes, high bitrate MP3s for listening as I can’t tell the difference past this point)

Grammarly Coder: Please use asteriskesque in a sentence. We will then consider your assertion it is a real word and not something your neural network created in a late night fit.

Dan Szymborski: I used it in a piece!

Dan Szymborski: If a pitcher had broken the modern ERA record in 2020, the shortened season would have made the feat seem a bit asteriskesque.

Dan Szymborski: (I just refreshed the library, so sadly all my counts are back at 0, so I can no longer tell you what I listened to the most)

asnbrv: Has a team ever contacted you in an attempt to buy ZiPS from you?

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t got far enough in a conversation about it to be a possibility.

Dan Szymborski: SO I guess the most accurate answer is no.

Dan Szymborski: I have very little interest in selling ZiPS

Dan Szymborski: In any case, the data packages I offer are far more economical than the number it would take to make me give up ZiPS

Appa Yip Yip: Is the league actually going to crack down on sticky stuff, and which pitchers do you think are going to regress to mediocre or fall off a cliff? Should they just legalize rosin and sunscreen and if anything else is found on the ball the pitcher gets automatically suspended?

Dan Szymborski: I think they should, but it’s a bit tricky because it’s really enforced right now in such an arbitrary manner.

Dan Szymborski: You’d have to have a post-inning hat inspection be standard I think

Dalton Wilcox: Who can German Marquez bring back in a trade?

Dan Szymborski: A lot, so naturally it won’t happen

Dalton Wilcox: Do you prefer if your cowboy boots go jingle jangle or jangle jingle? Says alot about a man

Dan Szymborski: How am I gonna sneak up on do-badders if I’m jingling?

Dan Szymborski: OR jangling?

Jimmy Wynn’s Toy Cannon: Have you seen enough from Altuve this year to reverse your (justifiable) pessimism pre-season? Right now Zips has him finishing with a ~90th percentile outcome from the initial projections

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborsnowboard: It’s now June.  Can we freak out about things now?

Dan Szymborski: I’ll allow it.

Jacques Pederson: Who ends the year with a more ridiculous batting line: Tyler O’Neill or Adolis Garcia? Adolis has never liked walking but Tyler has decided this year to never walk

Dan Szymborski: I think Adolis

Dan Szymborski: The Rangers are happy to just let him grip it and rip it no matter what I think

Dan Szymborski: I th ink if O’Neill goes into a slump, the Cards would be more tinkery

Dirty Dan: Hey Danimal. I know you’re not THE prospect guy around here, but have you watched/heard of Tyler Dearden?  OF with Greenville- he’s a friend of a close friend so wanted to see if you had any thoughts on him?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve heard of him, both the prospect and the similarly sounding movie character. But I haven’t really seen much of him, so don’t have a great deal of insight other then he’s been solid this year, but needs to play at a higher level before you take it TOO seriously

Jacques Pederson: Dan, who at fangraphs has the best PC setup?

Dan Szymborski: I would HOPE me.

Dan Szymborski:

Jacques Pederson: So if you use chives instead of scallions, is that ok on chili?

Dan Szymborski: I’ll allow it grudgingly. You wormed through my loophole

Jake: This chat is massively useless. Literally <50% baseball-related content

Dan Szymborski: OH GOD THIS IS REDUCING THE PERCENTAGE FURTHER

June!: *Cue freak out about the dodgers record*

Dan Szymborski: Hey, I did a piece on that!

Dan Szymborski: That we can get on 40 topics including baseball is part of my natural charm and that’s the story I’m sticking to

Sharp: You may not know this for sure but how much is the pay increase to working with a team in their analytics department vs working for a site like FanGraphs? 1.5x? 2x? Just curious.

Dan Szymborski: 0.something.

Dan Szymborski: Teams do not pay well

D: FanGraphs Discord when?

Dan Szymborski: We have a discord, but we haven’t opened it to the public yet

snitchell: who is the best minor league zips prospect no one is talking about?

Dan Szymborski: Is it too late to include Miguel Amaya? ZiPS is in love with him

brad penny for your thoughts: FYI, you could remove all those fans and just have a hamster in a wheel.  save you some money, just gotta mind the smell

Dalton Wilcox: I don’t go for computers or other city slickin things but that is perty

Dalton Wilcox: G’dammit Jake

Luis Castillo’s Changeup: Did zips anticipate this bad of a start for me

Dan Szymborski: Absolutely not!

Kate: How do you feel about Carter Kieboom and Cristian Pache at this point?  Both seem certain to get another shot at some point, do you think either takes it and runs with it to claim a long-term starting spot?  Is Pache ever more than a good glove (i.e. can he be an impact bat)?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s certainly too early to worry about Pache. I think losing a season of play was pretty bad for him

Dan Szymborski: and he’s kinda been forced into a schedule that makes more sense if he had played 2020 in the minors

Dan Szymborski: Slightly more worried about Kieboom. He was a bit passive in the minors this year too and I’m worry about Ben Grieve Disease

Jason N: Have you and Jay ever talked about using ZiPS to power JAWS projections for current players?

Dan Szymborski: Not specifically, but ewe integrate it from time to time

Element2112: Did Dansby Swanson finally figure it out? Any underlying metrics to prove if this is a hot streak or legit?

Dan Szymborski: I think this was somethign I forgot to post when I talked about Swanson earlier

The Other Mike D: Would an only stat based contract ever happen or be offered ? Sort of a bet on yourself vs take a chance on a player producing situation?

Dan Szymborski: Can’t happen.

John Olerud’s Helmet: Mr Dan! All hail o wise one!! Forget a multi year streak of course but will we ever see someone play an entire 162 games in a season again?

Dan Szymborski: Of course!

Dan Szymborski: Like four or five guys did it in 2019

Dan Szymborski: so it’s not like it can’t happen again

Dan Szymborski: Several guys this year have played in all the games

CoryMC: How is park factor calculated for the Blue Jays considering they have had a spring training facility and now an, upgraded, AAA ballpark as their home? Does it get even weirder if they can eventually play at the Skydome?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure what we’re doing for that

Alex: Why can’t we get toothpaste in large, shampoo-like drums?

Dan Szymborski: HOW DO YOU ROLL UP A DRUM

C@shman: Dan – what is going on with the yankees offense?  They were supposed to have one of the best offenses?

C@shman: What about Yanks trading for Joc Pederson and Kris Bryant to fill in all the holes they have in their OF?

Dan Szymborski: Cubs aren’t trading guys as long as the team is where they are

Appa Yip Yip: Underrated aspect of Vlad at 1st is the degree to which he will chat up literally everyone.

Re: Nats: Certainly there are tomatoes in chili, yes?

Dan Szymborski: no

Dan Szymborski: Beef. Chili peppers. Seasoning. Spoon of masa harina. Water.

Dan Szymborski: THAT IS ALL

Dan Szymborski: WELL A BOWL TO EAT IT IN

CeddyBReady: I really love the useless parts of this chat. Viva la Beisbol

CeddyBReady: Fangraphs discord sounds like something I’d pay for.

Derek: clicking a writer’s link while they’re chatting takes you to the chat rather than their archive?

Dan Szymborski: I had no idea

Appa Yip Yip: This chat is useless! Will Sasso doesn’t know anything about baseball!

dixie doo doo head: if you were a pizza, what topping would you have?

Dan Szymborski: pancakes

Dan Szymborski: they don’t make much sense. but even if you like them, you get way too many of them so that you don’t like them

Luis Castillo’s Changeup: and a spoon to eat with

Dan Szymborski: OK, spoon too

Dan Szymborski: I don’t want you to think I’m making you guys eat the chili by scooping handfuls out of the pot with your hand

Rod: Ever get sick of ppl talking about “real jobs?” As if you have to miserable doing what you’re doing for it to be “real”

Dan Szymborski: Sometimes.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t let it bother me, because while what I do is work — I spend a lot of time working believe it or not — it’s also a great job

Dan Szymborski: And I know that I’m fortunate to have this job. While everyone likes to think when they’re happy that they got there purely on skill, chance plays a lot into it.

Dan Szymborski: I happened to be in the right place at the right time for the thing I want to do.

Dan Szymborski: If I’m born 1958 instead of 1978, the job doesn’t exist. If I’m born in 1998 instead of 1978, I have a harder time standing out and have to compete with people with better programming bonafides

Appa Yip Yip: If I had a single, massive bean like the size of a bread bowl but it was one big bean and I carved it into a bowl and put chili into it would it still be chili.

Dan Szymborski: As long as you don’t eat the bowl

Glan: Knew a guy that said a “real job” required wearing a tie to work. He’s doing a stint for embezzlement.

Dan Szymborski: The only time I wore a tie (NEVER to ESPN even) was when I worked at Stebbins-Anderson in Towson when I was in high school

Dan Szymborski: That was a fun job because I didn’t do a lick of work whatsoever.

Dan Szymborski: The store computer system had this complicated process for reconciling everything at the end of every night that involved having to operate Unix.

Dan Szymborski: So one of the full-time staff had to work 1-9 instead of 9-5 so that they could be around to deal with it at the end of the night

Dan Szymborski: BUT, I gave them a part-time employee who *could* operate Unix. Which meant *nobody* had to stay if I was working.

Dan Szymborski: So as a result, they didn’t care what I did otherwise. I’d wander off and get dinner. Talk baseball with the hardware guys. Carve various weapons out of goods from around the store

Dan Szymborski: (For example, I made a gallows with a trap door in the patio department, a staple gun modified with a stiffer spring to hit things in the Christmas department from around the store, and a trebuchet made out of things I helped myself to from lumber)

Dan Szymborski: A small trebuchet that fit on a counter, not a full-size one

Dan Szymborski: In case that’s not obvious

Dan Szymborski: I still have the staple gun somewhere. Spray painted it in the parking lot with sparkly gold enamel

Derek: Stebbins Anderson closed!

Dan Szymborski: I KNOW, I was so sad to hear that

Dan Szymborski: They compressed to one floor a few years before and upstairs became Trader Joe’s

Dan Szymborski: and they closed completely at the end of 2019

Guest: When did this chat turn into Dan’s autobiography?

Dan Szymborski: Hey, we’re in overtime, I CAN TALK ABOUT WHAT I WANT NOW

Appa Yip Yip: Vlad or Ohtani for MVP? 10 WAR all offense, or 7 hitting and pitching?

Dan Szymborski: I gotta give Ohtani ties for versatility

Guest: How much do you believe your own chili-purist bullshit? You seem like the kind of reasonable person who recognizes that people have their own tastes and preferences, and a smart enough person to know that the the “original” recipe for chili is dependent on whoever wrote the history. Dictionaries update definitions based on usage, and I think your restrictive definition has clearly lost the usage battle already.

Dan Szymborski: When did you guys get the idea I was reasonable?

Rod: Can y’all mix in some occasional game chats like you do during the postseason? Logistics might be tough with how regional tv is, but maybe some national games on MLB network or whatever channels? I really enjoy those chats

Dan Szymborski: I can bring up the idea

Dan Szymborski: I’d definitely like to get some of our newer contributors involved.

Sam: The Giants are projected to have the 2nd lowest RS/G rest of season despite ranking fourth best as a team in wRC+ since 2020.. whats going on here?

Dan Szymborski: Well, PF is part of that

Dan Szymborski: Some of that is skepticism at Posey suddenly have a new peak and Crawford becoming full on CRAWDADDY WAR-BUCKS

Dan Szymborski: (except for the onions)

Dan Szymborski:

CeddyBReady: The semantics arguments don’t work on purists and I can not logic a reason why they keep making those same tired points over and over again.  Also, beans in chili is against all religion and sense, so just don’t.

boobie_miles: Will Torkelson and/or Rutschman break camp with the Tigers/Orioles on opening day next year?

Dan Szymborski: I think there’s a chance both do

Dalton Wilcox: Any thoughts on building a winning culture? I see recent WS winners like the Cubs and Royals opting to hard pass on (another) rebuild and admire the chutzpah

Dan Szymborski: I talk about this with Ben sorta in the next FanGraphs Audio

Dan Szymborski: there’s a point at which so many teams are win-or-tank that it does become a viable strategy to steal some wins in the middle

A cat: Does lab grown meat solve the ethical issues for vegans?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know, you’d have to ask the vegans!

Dalton Wilcox: We are a very misguided people chasing nonsense,

Dalton Wilcox: so its nice when someone enjoys the chase

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure how anyone at this point could show up to my chat and not expect gobs of nonsense.

LFC Mike: I want to decrease the baseball percentage in this chat further. Captain Crunch is the best cereal ever. Go.

Dan Szymborski: TOO HARD

Dan Szymborski: I never liked kid’s cereals

Dan Szymborski: Honey Bunches of Oats.

Dan Szymborski: Quaker Oat Squares.

Dan Szymborski: That’s it. That’s the pantry.

CeddyBReady: MY SO is vegan and the plant-based meat revolution has solved her desire for burgers… I don’t believe lab grown meat is necessary, though might eventually be profitable.

Derek: Cinnamon Toast Crunch, not close

Dalton Wilcox: Speaking of…will insects take off as a beef and chicken alt?

Dan Szymborski: If they do, I’m becoming a vegetarian

Dan Szymborski: I’m exhausted with people recommending cicada recipes

Dan Szymborski: DO NOT WANT

Dan Szymborski: On that note, it is time for me to head out for another week.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone.,

Dan Szymborski: And enjoy lunch!

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: oops, wrong link

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: That’s the one.