Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/22/2019

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And the chat has begun.

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I wasn’t going to address this, but there are a *lot* of questions and comments on the topic, so I’m going to make a quick comment and then no more on the subject.

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Jonah Keri is someone who I’ve known for a long time and the allegations are as completely and utterly shocking to me as to anyone else.

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: His alleged conduct is frighteningly awful and I hope the justice system works as it is supposed to.

12:10
(not that) James: ZIPS has Soto projected for 48 HR in 2021.  Given his career AVE (89.6) and LA (7.7), does that seem a bit aggressive?

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has backed off that somewhat – remember these are preseason runs.

12:10
greg: Safe to assume Puig returns more value at the deadline than the draft compensation a declined QO would bring?

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he could.

12:12
Dr. Steve Brule: Outfrielder name of Tony O’Mangus, on CARDINALS.  People say strike out too much. WHO CAREEESSS just hrit hrome runs ya dingus.  He’s a hunk

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I can’t parse any of this. Is there a meme I’m missing?

12:12
Mike Elias: What should I do with Mancini?

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Honestly, if he can fetch something significant in a trade, it’s hard to turn them down in the O’s position.

12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Mancini’s in his prime right now. The O’s are such a mess that he’ll be in his 30s before the team is any good and already a free agent.

12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And he’s a player with an up-and-down career and a not pariticularly wide skillset.

12:14
goOs: Prediction for top 5 picks in the 2020 draft?  Also, if the Royals had the #1 pick in 2019 would they still have picked Witt Jr. (over Adley)?

12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Oh god, I’m not a prep guru.

12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Emerson Hancock? O’s will have the pick

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Austin Martin?

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: JT Ginn’s been on radar since he was drafted

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Oh yeah, Spencer Torkelson, but maybe I’m overrating him because I remember the brief early 90s sitcom, The Torkelsons.

12:17
Mickey Callaway: Amed Rosario is kind of hitting but not doing anything else. How much upside does he have left?

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s kind of getting into Prospect’s Disease territory.

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: His offensive improvement is for real but he’s still not playing defense anywhere near the way he was expected to.

12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s not a good enough hitter to be a mediocre defensive shortstop.

12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There’s a *lot* of talent at the position.

12:20
Mark: Who do you have putting up the best numbers the rest of the way: Benintendi, Bradley jr, or Cain?

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think Benintendi and Cain pretty close and Bradley a tier behind.

12:21
Moose_Bolton: Do you think that there is any way that MLB could define a pitcher “win” so that if all you knew was that a pitcher recorded a W you could be fairly confident in how the pitcher performed?

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not really, because to make it an actual good stat, you’d have to transform it in a way that the people who actually care about wins won’t want to use it

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think of Michael Wolverton’s Support Neutral W-L.

12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That’s not to say he didn’t do great work with it.

12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Just that the target audience for using W-L is people who wouldn’t accept the changes to make W-L not suck.

12:22
Xolo: Ignoring acquisition cost and years of control, who’s the best pitcher whose name has come up this deadline season?

12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Define come up?

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There was a brief period before the Nats started winning that Strasburg and Scherzer could have theoretically been in the trade market

12:23
Jim Leyland Palmer: Do you think Al Avila, whether from misreading the market or failing to eventually lower his asking price, will have failed if he does not trade Matt Boyd this month? Pitchers are volatile, and his value will never be higher. Hanging around to “mentor the young pitchers” is meaningless with the farm being so barren on the hitting side.

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he *has* to trade Boyd this month, but I think they need to trade Boyd no later than this winter.

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hopefully they learned a lesson after Fulmer.

12:23
ryan: while sitting through the Cardinals’ 10 run 6th inning at GABP, I painfully felt the Reds turn into sellers — who do you think they should “sell” at the deadline, who do you think they actually will sell, and what do you think they can expect in return for whatever names you mention?

12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m doing a fantasy trades trade deadline piece, in which I’ll address this.

12:25
Dave in London: What are your expectations for Borucki now that he’s healthy? Is he assured a spot in Jays rotation?

12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Are you LondonDave? If so, I know you!

12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Either way, I think he’s more of a 4th starter type. I think he’ll be hard-pressed to be as HR stingy as he was last year

12:26
Acunami: Dodgers or the field for the NL pennant?

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Field. Anything can happen in a five-game series.

12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You could put the O’s in the NL playoffs for some odd reason and they’ll occasionally beat the Dodgers in five games.

12:27
Dave in London: Any idea what’s wrong with Benintendi? How did he become such a mediocre hitter?

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he’s better than this. Honestly, in my completely unscientific opinion, it almost feels like he’s trying to get more loft and take advantage of the environment but he’s fundamentally a line drive guy and that’s hurting him

12:30
Dan the Man Fan: Ive been looking at your ZiPS future projections.  How long have they been a thing, how accurate have they been, and how do you go about doing that? Is it basically ZiPS stretched out over a 3 year period?  Anyways I think its great, and I thank you for it!

12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s tricky because nobody has tested them against other systems (and I have an insurmountable conflict of interest).

12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But certainly less accurate. ZiPS has been equipped to do this sicne 2005

12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And I bring up long-term projections a lot, but this is the first time I was willing to publish them whole.

12:31
Guest: With Strasburg finally healthy and having something of a career resurgence, if he stays healthy do you think his performance could get him into the HOF ? Does ZiPS have an opinion? He’d need to average 4 WAR per year for the next 8 to match CC

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think there’s a solid chance Strasburg is *worthy* of the Hall, but I’m not sure he’ll get enough wins.

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It wasn’t easy getting Mussina in with 270 wins and twice Morris’s WAR

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (OK, not twice in fWAR, but you get the idea)

12:32
D: If you were in charge of the Red Sox, would you be preparing to sell at the deadline? If so, who would you be trying to trade?

(Related: Do you think most of Price’s contract could be unloaded with value coming back?)

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I would not be selling.

12:33
LLW: Would you ever, under any circumstances, order soup at a ballgame

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I might. Say it was an April game and really cold and they had sausage-and-bean soup in the press box cafeteriette, sure

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But I’d also have a natural inclination to not get food, in an office environment, that I may make a mess with

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m still mortified by my potato chip disaster at an ESPN meeting.

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Some years ago, I was at a meeting of all the MLB writers (except, I don’t believe Keith or Jerry were there) in a large conference room. We had just come back for lunch and most of us still had sandwiches and stuff from the cafeteria

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But the styrofoam flipped and all the potato chips went on the floor.

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I ducked out to try and find a broom and dustpan but couldn’t find one.

12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They had a janitor come and I was embarrassed that this guy was having to clean up a mess I made.

12:37
Dbo: Is a gyro a taco?

12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I guess you could argue it’s a greek taco

12:37
Stevil : What kind of value should Domingo Santana have on the market as a right fielder (we all know how terrible he is in left)?

12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he’s one of the more interesting bats available

12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You get him for a couple years

12:38
Don’t be a Hader: Which Padre likely to be dealt?

12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think Yates goes.

12:38
Charles Bengal Tiger: A lot of comment pushback against Tatis Jr. being #2 in the trade value series. Thoughts? I’ll take your answer off the air.

12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I haven’t read the comments. What was the dispute?

12:38
Dbo: Which of your cats would have the highest trade value this year?

12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I would assume Cassiopeia since she’s two years old.

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Galileo’s a grumpy, 20-year-old, deaf cat who pillages your food and can open the fridge.

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think that’s like having Pujols’s contract, in cat terms.

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And Mercutio is friendly, but he’s also 10 and a big ol’ chonk and not very smart.

12:39
Joe: Thoughts on Wojciechowski?

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ve always liked Jason and congratulating him on his new job was always a fun Twitter meme in baseball nerdland.

12:40
Jim Leyland Palmer: Would you take this job offer: GM of the Reds, top decision maker and everything that comes with it, and you get to work 100% from home with everyone coming to you and reporting to your house if needed, BUT you have to eat a Skyline Chili lunch (to completion) every day for as long as you hold the job.

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It might be worth eating the chili

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Do I have to *call* it chili?

12:40
Jaff: The Giants still should sell right?

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Probably

12:40
Roberto Beers: If you could add 2 KBO traits to be to universally accepted by the MLB (players/management/fans/broadcasters) what would they be?

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Believing baseball is fun

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Love of individualized theme songs.

12:41
Outta my way, Gyorkass: How screwed is Milwaukee with Brandon Woodruff injured (4-6 weeks minimum)?

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s very bad news. I think they *have to* make an addition now.

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well, have to in the should sense.

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t *have* to eat food. It’s just necessary, at some point, to keep me from not beign dead.

12:42
The Atomic Wrangler: ZiPS is pretty favorable on Derek Fisher’s future as a power/speed role player. Do you think 15/15 is possible with 450+ ABs and does some team see that potential and nab Fisher this deadline?

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but is 15/15 really that exciting?

12:42
CamdenWarehouse: Update from a past chat you’ve probably forgotten – Balt Co has retimed the lights at Shawan so the new McCormick HQ no longer completely kills the traffic turning from York. I do not need to boycott Old Bay.

12:42
Jaffe rhymes with Taffy: Dan, how many adult beverages would it take for you to automatically respond to my random cat calls of DANIMAL in a crowded space?

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Probably zero.

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Amusing me is always a good way to get my response.

12:42
Ryan: Do you see the Padres and Marlins limiting Paddack and Smith’s innings soon?

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Padres have already been limiting Paddack

12:42
Roger: Hi Dan! ZiPS sees some pretty mean regression coming for Bryan Reynolds. Do you see him beating the current projections? Thanks for the time.

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m more optimistic than the projections.

12:43
White Sox Fan: When do i start worrying about Cease and his lack of command?  Only 3 starts, but jeez…

12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think the uptick in minor league walk rate this year was a larger concern.

12:44
Jim: Is ZIPS a believer in Matt Boyd longer term? Doesn’t seem reasonable for anyone to give an arm and a leg for a guy that has had one good 1/2 season

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS think he’s a good pticher now, but not crazy package worthy

12:44
(not that) James: Thanks.  I’m sure you’ve answered this a million times, but is there an updated set of future projections yet, or do we just wait until the offseason?

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Wait until offseason! I don’t have an automated solution yet.

12:44
Moltar: There’s no reasonable scenario in which Syndergaard is good on a good Mets team, right? If that’s the case, why not just trade him now? I doubt his trade value will improve very much between now and the offseason.

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d trade him now.

12:45
Slapshot: Which contender do you think is in the best position to improve themselves via trade by next Wednesday?

12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Phillies, if they choose to. They have real holes.

12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Where a team like the Cardinals is trickier because they’re mostly OKish everywhere and the underperformers aren’t guys they’re likely to replace.

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Let’s be honest, Goldschmidt has not been a good player in 2019, but there’s NFW the Cardinals pick up a better 1B and bench him.

12:46
CamdenWarehouse: You don’t think the Tigers will steal the top pick from the O’s?

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think the O’s are clutch at sucking.

12:46
HappyFunBall: Come now, Dan. The top 5 picks in the 2020 draft will clearly be the Orioles, Royals, Blue Jays, Marlins, and Tigers.

12:46
Ryan: Which rebuilding team makes the playoffs first: White Sox or Padres?

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Padres

12:46
stever20: Giants going to buy or sell next week?  Have you ever seen a team like this that was an almost certain seller do what the Giants have done here?

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I probably have but it’s not jumping into my head the obvious examples

12:47
greg: Tanner Roark cost Tanner Rainey in the offseason.  Does the pitching market change enough mid-season for Roark to cost more than that now despite having 4 fewer months of control?

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s tricky. Given the NL, who is *actually* available is up for serious debate.

12:47
White Sox Fan: YoYo is on track for over 6 WAR.  You buying the improvement?

12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I dare not say because every year I get excited and then he stops being awesome.

12:48
Matt W: Did, did fangraphs update their look over the weekend? It seems, idk, cleaner?

12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Sean did some stuff with the headers and the like

12:48
White Sox Fan: Why is Lou Bob still in Charlotte?  The skills – and performance – are begging for promotion to Chicago.  After all, Juan Soto..

12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Eloy

12:48
CamdenWarehouse: Baltimore is trying to make Renato Nunez sound like a trade chip. I just don’t see it since he’s a perfectly adequate, but not great DH who no one wants in field. Is there actually a market for someone like that?

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not particularly.

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There’s nothing about MLB in the last 2-3 years that suggests to me that Averagish DH who Makes Outs is something that teams pay for

12:49
Trent: The Tigers (Boyd, Turnbull, Mize, Manning, etc.) and Marlins (Smith, Lopez, Yamamoto, Sanchez, etc.) seem to have some promising young pitching, but does either one have the position player talent to be playoff-relevant in, say, the next three years?

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: MAYBE by the third year

12:49
JD: Why is there so much talk about the Indians trading Trevor Bauer? They are firmly in contention

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not buying that buzz.

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think you seek to trade him until the winter.

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The Indians are too close to playoff spots *and* too much uncertainty with the rest of their pitching this season.

12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Maybe by the winter, you know better what’s going on with Kluber/Cookie/Clevinger

12:51
Sandy Kazmir: On Mancini, considering his utter hossness in RF & the likelihood of little growth beyond this solid level at the dish, what would be a reasonable return? Would it behoove a team to pay a much smaller price to get Nicholas Castellanos from Detroit?

12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Probably. It ought not to take much to fetch Castellanos unless the Tigers have a screw loose

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That’s why I think ultimately, the O’s won’t trade Mancini. I dont’ think he’s a guy you necessarily want to pay to haev 2-3 years for

12:52
White Sox Fan: Looks like our window of contention has moved out a couple of years.  With all the crap on the roster, is there any real way to compete in 2020?

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think the White Sox *can* but it will require some cash.

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The Tommy John setbacks are real

12:52
Guest: Just read an article saying the Yankees will “definitely” be acquiring a top starter this deadline. Does that also mean Frazier is “definitely” being traded? If so, which system of the Rangers/Blue Jays/Giants/Indians/Tigers would be the best fit for him? Where could he start right away?

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Most teams that aren’t far, far away will probably want Frazier.

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I can see the Jays demanding him for sure in a Stroman trade.

12:53
Matt: I come back from lunch and find you moved your chats to 11 am?

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 12 PM ET

12:53
Anon21: Bowden says the Giants might now be buyers at the deadline. How amusing would that be, if it came to pass?

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure HOW they’re buyers.

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The top three guys are so are basically hands off I think: Bart, Ramos, Luciano

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But the Giants don’t have the depth to make trade that other teams have

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Those 5th-15th prospects in an organization make a lot of deadline trades but the Giants are dismal there.

12:54
Dan’s Mother: Historically what player and pitcher have ZIPS missed the mark on above all others?

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: WHY DOES MY MOM CARE

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I haven’t actually tracked from memory, but it used to be Kevin Gryboski

12:55
Dan’s Mother: GRANDKIDS DANNY WHEN CAN I SEE THEM

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My sister has a son now which has removed that pressure source from me.

12:55
Dan’s Mother: Does ZIPS award Marc Rzepczynski bonus points for having a harder to spell name than its beloved overlord?

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Nope, but it would be fun to say yes to annoy people.

12:56
Ryan: Who do you think takes over for closer for the Giants if Smith is traded?

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I would imagine Dyson or Moronta

12:56
Dan’s Mother: DANNY I JUST FOUND OUT THAT ZIPPY ISNT ACTUALLY A GRANDSON BUT RATHER A PROJECTION… WHEN CAN I SEE MY GRANDSON DANNY

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You guys are so weird

12:56
Guest: If it wasn’t easy getting Mussina in, does that mean CC Sabathia has slim to no chance of making the HoF?

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I suspect he doesn’t get in

12:56
Dbo: I think you should anyone who confesses to ordering soup at a ballgame

12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ve never *actually* ordered soup in a park

12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I only described a scenario in which it’s possible.

12:57
Norman: Soup seems perfectly appropriate if you’re watching the game in one of the newer, formal restaurant-style venues that teams have been adding, especially if in a place like Baltimore (crab soup) or Boston (clam chowder).

12:57
LFC Mike: Hi Dan. Gavin Lux must think he died and went to heaven hitting the MLB ball in AAA. His video game numbers for these first few weeks are past ridiculous. Does he get a September call up and play some second base in preparation for next year?

12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m starting to think he does get a cup of coffee. He’s already played a *bit* at 2B this year

12:57
JD: How quickly can the Royals complete this rebuild. Have 3 good arms down in the minors with Singer, Kowar, and Bubic and have some bats on the way with Matias/Witt

12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Still very speculative.

12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t have much faith in KC’s front office.

12:59
V2micca: Been arguing about this with a friend. I think if Freddie Freeman begins his decline next season, even a gentle decline, he falls short of the HOF. He needs two more prime years and then a decline period to make it in my opinion.

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has Freeman ending up in mid-60s in WAR, which puts him on the border among people who use WAR

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS projects him to finish at around .295 with just under 400 homers. There are still going to be lots of writers who dont’ care about WAR

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: McGriff peaked at under 40%

1:01
Matt: Depending on your soup choice, it could arguably be the *least* likely to make a mess. You could serve tomato soup in a sealed tumbler.

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I can’t psychologically drink soup

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I have to have a spoon

1:01
Guest: ever since then Dan has had a chip on his shoulder

1:01
Magic Kingdome: Yea or Nay at the ballpark:  fish ‘n chips? sushi? pad thai? baked ziti? shawarma? kalbi ribs?

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I can’t see eating ziti at a stadium

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But I’ll go for all these

1:02
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: RE: Gyros and tacos, Arby’s ran ads calling them “Mediterranean Tacos”, and they’re meat experts.

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Galileo agrees.

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

@DSzymborski Galileo already knows Arbys has the meats, while Chewy’s got the treats. 😉
11 Jul 2019

<script async src=”https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js” charset=”utf-8″></script>

1:03
tgiff: Dan, Coors field is the most offensively friendly environment anywhere in baseball this century. Is this solely because of the ball? Are there other explanations that I’m not considering?

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not following

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: All events are based on the ball.

1:03
Matt: Skyline chili is actually just a stubborn name from someone who really screwed up a spaghetti bolognese. Change my mind.

1:04
scott: Zips Acuna projections are substantial for the next five years. but his WAR for this year went up significantly when he started playing center field (makes sense; harder position). He’s really unlikely to play that much for the Braves going forward between Ender platooning and Pache/Waters waiting in the wings. How does ZIPs factor this in (if it does)…

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s tricky, because if the Braves play him in left

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Is the ability to play CF NOT still there?

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If I use my piano to store frozen shrimp, is it really my piano that sucks…or me?

1:05
(not that) James: “I’m more optimistic than the projections” would be a good name for your autobiography.

1:05
Nick: Which happens first: a Padre throws a no-hitter or a Red wins a Cy Young?

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Red Cy Young

1:05
Sean: How does ZiPS handle park factors? Arizona has been playing like a pitcher’s park ever since the Humidor was installed but most park factors (including FG’s) use multi-year calculations, so it still shows AZ as being a hitter’s park.

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Here’s the awkward thing: AZ’s only showing up as a pticher’s park *this* year

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Last year, frist with humidor, it wasn’t that different than usual

1:06
scott: how big of an RC+ split for a hitter before you would wonder if they should stop switch hitting? Albies is currently holding a 91/167 split…

1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the splits themselves should be the problem, but the absolute level of ability

1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Now, I wouldn’t be against a player *testing* giving up switch hitting in this situation

1:07
Pulmonary Szymbolism: who is your least favorite fangraphs colleague and why is it kiley mcdaniel

1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Carson Cistulli since he’s my archnemesis

1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well one of them – Michigan Dan Szymborski is also a sworn enemy

1:08
scott: Gausman had his best outing of the year last night and he swears he threw a cutter but it registered as a 4 seamer on every single pitch (he also had about 4 very loud very deep fly ball outs)…Is it just not a very good cutter or what?

1:08
David R Williams Teacher: Quite the “Lord of the Flies” thing you have here Mr. Szymborski. Not surprised at all and slightly impressed actually.

1:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I know you’re not the real Señor Williams because he wouldn’t break character and call me Mr.

1:09
Bobby B: Give me the exact date Scooter Gennett will hit his first homer of the season. If you guess correctly, you win a mental fist bump from me. If you guess wrong, a thousand years of pain and misery await you as you are turned into a banded butterflyfish and forced to live in the backstop tanks at Marlins park. While you won’t have the sentience of a human (that would be cruel) you will fully be able to perceive how bad the Marlins are. Your diet will consist of fish food and the occasional hot dog scraps from curious toddlers. Another fish in your tank will have the cognizance of a human, and he has access to a cell phone so occasionally he will order Uber eats. Sometimes he will share, sometimes he will not. That will be your punishment should you guess incorrectly.

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not seeing the upside on this bet.

1:09
Guest: Hello? I’m stuck in a parallel dimension, this is the only way I could get a message through, send help before The Others fi

1:09
Gerald of Rivia: What did you think of the trailer for the Netflix adaptation of your beloved Poland’s favorite witcher?

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I have not yet seen it

1:09
Jerry Dipoto: If you’re in my shoes, what am I doing at the deadline?

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Probably chasing the fat idiot who stole your shoes and ran away with them.

1:10
CamdenWarehouse: Meg made a joke the other day about The Board becoming sentient. It was funny, but I don’t think ZiPS is going to allow that to happen.

1:10
Anon21: I know this is more of a Jaffe question, but do you see the HOF standard getting increasingly disconnected from the realities of starting pitching these days? Do you think the standard will adjust, or will they just pick few pitchers going forward?

1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think the standards for pitching will adjust.

1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Look at how Cy Young voting has changed quicker than the Hall.

1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The internet-employed BBWAA members only got their vote last year (Law, Kahrl, etc)

1:11
Dan’s Nephew: Do I call you Unka Dan or Unka Zim or will you embarrass me enough to disown you.

1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ll probably embarrass him significantly.

1:12
Matt: Just to level set: Would you say you have more, or less faith in the KC FO’s ability than you do in, say, the existence of a Flying Spaghetti Monster?

1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Less.

1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: At least with spaghetti monsters, there’s the possibility that I’ll get free spaghetti out of it

1:13
Trey: Is Adam Jones a fit for Philadelphia?  They have the space in the OF because of recent injuries, and he seems to fit Bruce/McCutchen mold of “veteran OF presence the front office might think is a good influence for the young guys.”

1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’s a particularly good fit.

1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You don’t want him in center and  honestly, he’s not actually good

1:14
Self Owned: So at this point can we safely say that Joey Votto’s sarcastic spring training wardrobe referencing his age was a poor choice?

1:14
Dbo: If you drink it then its a smoothie, not soup Matt

1:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I *hate* on cooking shows when they serve judges soup to drink in a little tall glass

1:15
sdot: skyline chili is the worst “city” food.  primanti brothers comes in second.

1:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: St. Louis pizza is second.

1:15
Matt: Does your ZIPS machine take into consideration the savage coefficient?

1:15
Matt: Settle an argument: A broken taco can be considered nachos, but nachos should not be considered a broken taco. True, or false?

1:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: True

1:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Intent.

1:15
Matt: Very recently I had always thought of “park factors” as really being synonymous with “park dimensions” until recently when I realized that, mathematically, they include weather and climate context inherently. What % of the factors do you think is attributed to weather/climate vs dimensions?

1:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think you can carve it down to a percentage here. Some parks these things are a bigger deal.

1:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: For example, Wrigley has an INSANE variety of wind direction

1:16
scott: you posted the gausman question and then didn’t answer it…BOOO

1:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Wait, did I?

1:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I didn’t think that was a cutter

1:16
Snowy: The Giants are a mediocre team riding a hot streak in a diluted National League…please tell me Farhan understands this and is still going to be in sell everyone mode?

1:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Farhan isn’t the emperor-god-king of the Giants.

1:17
David R Williams Teacher: You know who we all are when we change our names right? You smart mouth little punk who will amount to nothing in life….maybe you work at a Sky Line Chili…If you are lucky, How was that Mr Szymborski.

1:17
Guest: the tastiest spaghetti is free spaghetti

1:17
Matt: I just realized that in the Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster the eucharist would be, by definition, spaghetti.

1:17
Sean: Gonna pick up WoW Classic on August 27th?

1:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure yet

1:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I find old MMOs a “you can’t go home again” kind of thing.

1:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’d be fun to have a lot of the vanilla stuff, but the quality of life stuff being missing would drive me nuts

1:18
Guest: soups don’t become smoothies at the end

1:18
Matt: Has anyone actually ever seen a real dumpster fire?

1:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ve seen an actual dumpster fire in Baltimore

1:18
Reid: Of the two names suggested for KC’s future bats, one hasn’t played a single pro game yet and the other is running a 65 WRC+ with a > 44% K rate in A+

1:18
sdot: When will the Pirates figure out that kinda-sorta buying or selling at the deadline every year doesn’t actually make the team better?

1:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The question is when *ownership* will realize hthis.

1:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And on that note, AWAY I go for another week.

1:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Thank you all for coming and I’ll see you next week!





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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