Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/11/16
July 11, 2016
| 11:59 |
: Free of tiresome culture wars but not free of tiresome Dan Szymborski: The Dan© Szymborski© FanGraphs© Chat©.
|
| 12:00 |
: Stolen bases can skewed in the low minors. Where do you think Moncada’s power/speed will end up in the majors?
|
| 12:00 |
: Yeah, stolen bases do tend to go wacky in the low minors.
|
| 12:01 |
: I expect him to still be a good SB player in the majors, but more in the 25-35 range when he does reach the majors. The power is interesting he does have the build that he should develop more.
|
| 12:01 |
: Since AJ Reed is struggling, could you see the Astros calling up Bregman to slide in at 1st?
|
| 12:01 |
: No
|
| 12:02 |
: Remember Springer’s first 10 games or so in the majors? The Astros don’t tend to panic.
|
| 12:03 |
: What do you see Eloy Jiménez ceiling being?
|
| 12:04 |
: Pretty high if his plate discipline shakes out a little better. He probably has even more power than he’s shown so far — low level minors have a lot of gigantic pitchers’ parks — but he’s still raw
|
| 12:05 |
: Dave teased that for the first time, ZiPS 5 year projection liked someone better than Trout, but wouldn’t tell who it is. It’s gotta be Bartolo Colon, right? What does ZiPS say Bartolo Colon will look like in 5 years, and does it come with weight projections?
|
| 12:06 |
: That’s 5th-year projection, not the whole 5-year period, just to be clear.
|
| 12:06 |
: And I’ll spoil it. It’s Jose Vizcaino, obviously.
|
| 12:06 |
: SORRY DAVE
|
| 12:06 |
: Thanks for halting your pikachu hunt to chat with us!
|
| 12:06 |
: I’ve mostly been watching the whole thing rather th an contributing!
|
| 12:07 |
: I’ve got like two big projects going on and can’t be galavanting around fighting giant crabs in bars quite yet
|
| 12:07 |
: THE PEOPLE DEMAND A BARTOLO COLON 5 YEAR WEIGHT PROJECTION, MAKE IT HAPPEN ZiPS!
|
| 12:07 |
: Hey Dan, which character do you think is most overpowered in Overwatch RIGHT NOW THIS VERY SECOND?
|
| 12:07 |
: Lucio
|
| 12:07 |
: Err Lúcio
|
| 12:07 |
: Is that where the mark is?
|
| 12:07 |
: From a sad Cubs fan, that Adam Warren ZiPS ain’t looking as great as it was pre-season! 🙁
|
| 12:08 |
: Yeah, recent events have not helped it
|
| 12:08 |
: Better than 50% chance that Marcus Semien ends up with 30+ HRs?
|
| 12:08 |
: If we’re talking over 50, I’d still take the under.
|
| 12:08 |
: Let’s say there was a skills challenge during the All Star break. What challenges would you actually like to watch?
|
| 12:09 |
: Footrace! Arm strength. Maybe some kind of weird precision hitting thing
|
| 12:09 |
: How does ZiPS feel about Andrew Benintendi? Steamer projects a 103 wRC+ for him right now.
|
| 12:09 |
: ZiPS likes him very much, but since Dave’s going to be talking about him (or has already) I dont’ want to spoil anything
|
| 12:09 |
: What do you see for Puig going forward? What does he need to fix at the plate to get back to ’13-’14 Puig, which was a very good version of Puig.
|
| 12:09 |
: No clue whatsoever
|
| 12:09 |
: Which of these pitchers would you pick to have the best 2nd half bounce back: Liriano, Kazmir, Samardzija, Chen, Corbin?
|
| 12:10 |
: Shark
|
| 12:10 |
: And again, saving the offtopic ones for the Lightningn Round
|
| 12:10 |
: In a dynasty keeper league who would you keep and who has the better upside long term between the both struggling Jason Heyward & Yasiel Puig?
|
| 12:11 |
: Heyward’s safer, but Puig has more upside – a lot of Heyward’s value is always going to be tied up in defense, which is fairly irrelevant for fantasy.
|
| 12:11 |
: But Puig could also be out of baseball in two years
|
| 12:11 |
: How many HRs will the league leader have at the end of the year?
|
| 12:12 |
: Let’s say 44.
|
| 12:12 |
: Do the Cubs’ recent struggles make them more likely to pursue upgrades? Still focused on relief or maybe a starter now?
|
| 12:12 |
: Really depends on the opportunities available. Too-specific targeting is fraught with peril
|
| 12:12 |
: How do 5-years ZiPS forecasts work? The same methodology as one year or different?
|
| 12:12 |
: Similar to the one year
|
| 12:12 |
: Though more possibilities.
|
| 12:12 |
: Since it’s a Cone of Ignorance
|
| 12:12 |
: Are you aware of any research that has been done that ties number of games consecutively played versus run production/run prevention over time? A lot of speculation has been made that that poor play of the Cubs is tied to fatigue and no time off – I’m just curious how relevant that statement really is.
|
| 12:13 |
: Not off-hand, but I wouldn’t be surprised if I missed something
|
| 12:13 |
: Shouldn’t Machado just stick at short at this point or do the O’s feel like playing him at 3rd will preserve him in the long term?..obviously he’s extremely valuable either way, but man, he’s great.
|
| 12:13 |
: He should be at short.
|
| 12:13 |
: Thoughts on Byron Buxton potentially putting it together for a big 2nd half?
|
| 12:13 |
: I remain stubbornly optimistic about Buxton
|
| 12:13 |
: Does Eduardo Rodriguez ever figure it out? And does figuring it out equate to more than a back end starter?
|
| 12:13 |
: Think he’s still a 3/4 guy long term. There was a brief moment that he did get overhyped.
|
| 12:13 |
: Do you think xOBA is a good signal for ROS projections for hitters and do you plan on incorporating statcast data in some fashion into ZiPS?
|
| 12:14 |
: I’ve found pbp data harder to incorporate on in-season. Statcast, there’s still a lot of work to do.
|
| 12:14 |
: What are ZiPS’ biggest blind spots? Is it more accurate for some player profiles than others?
|
| 12:14 |
: Not really – calibration is the easier part.
|
| 12:14 |
: Unless you’re talking about something like injured players
|
| 12:14 |
: But that’s not really a player profile
|
| 12:14 |
: Unless you’re talking about Steve Ontiveros or something
|
| 12:15 |
: Do you see Contreras being the primary Catcher next year for the Cubs?
|
| 12:15 |
: I suspect so.
|
| 12:15 |
: I need Margot for some SBs in an NL only league. Do you see him coming up before Renfroe to man CF for the Friars?
|
| 12:15 |
: No
|
| 12:15 |
: What are your thoughts on Aledmys Diaz going forward? Seems to make a lot of good contact, he’s for real, right?
|
| 12:15 |
: Not going to say he’s real to *this* level, but he’s done enough that he’s at least “good” now.
|
| 12:15 |
: How many fans will get hit in the stands, while staring at their phones, trying to find Pokeman? Quite the phenomena! Let’s say that now that Sano is at 3B, Kepler is in RF, and Berrios comes up….the Twins are close to .500 in the second half (a guy can dream), would you plan for next year based on the full year’s awful results, or the much better 2nd half results as being the true talent going into next year?
|
| 12:16 |
: I wouldn’t plan based on either – it’s kind of a simplistic way of planning.
|
| 12:16 |
: If the All-Stars were turned into vampires and had to fight which all-star would win?
|
| 12:16 |
: Uh
|
| 12:17 |
: I think speed is important for a vampire, no? You don’t see big lumbering vampires
|
| 12:17 |
: So who’s the fastest All-Star? So JBJ or Marte?
|
| 12:17 |
: On behalf of all Mets fans, I’d just like to say, Brandon Phillips, I hate you.
|
| 12:17 |
: Do you think Puig gets moved? What kind of return would LA be able to get for him?
|
| 12:17 |
: Not at this stage. There’s no purpose to moving him.
|
| 12:18 |
: Have you seen lamont anywhere?
|
| 12:19 |
: Gene Lamont? Still with the Tigers unless I missed some very low key news over the weekend
|
| 12:19 |
: First big name to be traded this summer?
|
| 12:19 |
: Lucroy
|
| 12:19 |
: Trumbo to win HRD
|
| 12:19 |
: Should we read anything into the Royals dropping from 1 game back to 7 games back of first after they DFAed Omar Infante?
|
| 12:19 |
: HE WAS THE HEART OF THE ROYALS AND YOU STATDOUCHES RIPPED IT OUT
|
| 12:20 |
: so many Cubs logos…
|
| 12:20 |
: Does Bartolo Colon win All-Star game MVP
|
| 12:20 |
: If t here’s any justice.
|
| 12:20 |
: The AL West has 3 teams with a snowball’s chance. Who has the biggest snowball?
|
| 12:20 |
: Rangers. Possession is 9/10 of the divisional lead.
|
| 12:20 |
: Texas Rangers will trade Joey Gallo this season ? Too good for the AAA.
|
| 12:20 |
: I do not believe so
|
| 12:20 |
: Bregman has to be called up soon though, correct?
|
| 12:20 |
: I think so
|
| 12:21 |
: First half MVPs?
|
| 12:21 |
: Trout, Bryant
|
| 12:21 |
: C. Davis hit an oppo bomb this weekend and it looked like he exerted some effort. Where does he rank for you in easiest looking home run swings?
|
| 12:21 |
: He’s certainly up there
|
| 12:21 |
: Mickey Tettleton’s always looked most effortless
|
| 12:21 |
: And he was helped by that ridiculously indifferent-looking stance
|
| 12:22 |
: Every pitch, Mickey looked like he was about to doze off and then some trigger went off in his head going WAKE UP ITS BASEBALL TIME BRAH
|
| 12:23 |
: Is Josh Bell going to stay up or was this the taster before September?
|
| 12:23 |
: I suspect that this is an amuse-bouche but the Pirates wouldn’t mind if he forced their hand.
|
| 12:23 |
: Who has a better second half, Kyle Seager or Jake Lamb?
|
| 12:24 |
: Seager
|
| 12:24 |
: Assuming Danny Valencia is moved at the deadline, will Ryon Healy’s good numbers in AA/AAA this year translate well as a replacement at 3B ROS?
|
| 12:24 |
: No, Valencia’s really hitting well
|
| 12:24 |
: Avi Garcia has an RC+ of 70 heading into the All-Star break, primarily as a DH. It seems inexcusable that a front office trying to contend continues to allow such trash to tarnish a potentially competitive team.
|
| 12:24 |
: THEY GOTTA BELIEVE
|
| 12:24 |
: Which #4 starter do the Orioles inevitably trade for?
|
| 12:24 |
: I think it’ll be a quiet trade deadline
|
| 12:25 |
: Nice to see him get some recognition, even if he was a substitute, is Yandy Diaz a future regular?
|
| 12:25 |
: I’m skeptical. The walk-heavy guys don’t tend to translate to majors super well
|
| 12:26 |
: I PLEADED this to get you guys less excited about Tyler White, but none of you believe me
|
| 12:27 |
: Is there anything to be worried about with Arrieta? What do you think has been his problems of late?
|
| 12:27 |
: Honeslty, I’m not overly concerned
|
| 12:28 |
: Can Mike Foltynewicz stick in the rotation or will his difficulties against lefties banish him to the pen forever?
|
| 12:28 |
: I don’t think the platoon splits are really an established long-term issue yet
|
| 12:28 |
: Never go nuts over short term splits
|
| 12:29 |
: This might be a bit obscure, but for a guy like Harrison Bader, Florida guy taken in 2015 and just promoted to AAA, does he get a pass on his poor plate discipline numbers because of the huge increase in opposition talent that he’s faced over the past year, or do you think that’s gonna be a big problem for him down the road?
|
| 12:29 |
: The thing is, there’s no easy answer for this kind of thing.
|
| 12:29 |
: I generally think that players hitting well but with poor plate discipline ought to be promoted.
|
| 12:30 |
: Because you can’t really test plate discipline until a guy is being very challenged otherwise.
|
| 12:30 |
: Let’s say you got a guy who is hitting 300/330/600. That’s a poor walk rate, but given how well he’s hitting pitchers, it maybe the objectively correct approach at the plate.
|
| 12:31 |
: Now obviously Bader isn’t Kris Bryant, but I talked about this last year
|
| 12:32 |
: People went nuts about Bryant’s K rate in the minors while I did say (and you guys can find this to verify I’m sure!) that given how well he was hitting in the minors, being aggressive was the correct approach and his K rate likely wouldn’t be worse in the majors
|
| 12:32 |
: And it hasn’t
|
| 12:32 |
: Is there anywhere that one can see park factors or league factors for the minors?
|
| 12:33 |
: Right now, I dont’ think so, but I always “roll my own”
|
| 12:33 |
: I’m probably the worst person to ask simply because I don’t look for the resource.
|
| 12:33 |
: Minor League Central did use to have them, but that site appeared to be abandoned last year
|
| 12:33 |
: One of the 100 questions asking the same thing: Dan, I can’t wait until Friday; whose 5-yr Zips projection is higher than Trout?
|
| 12:33 |
: Fine.
|
| 12:33 |
: LeBron James.
|
| 12:34 |
: People smile and tell me I’m the lucky one.
|
| 12:34 |
: Love a guy who holds the world in a paper cup.
|
| 12:34 |
: OK Anne
|
| 12:35 |
: I know it’s early, but you have to be somewhat concerned with Brady Aiken, right?
|
| 12:35 |
: Now you’re just tormenting me
|
| 12:35 |
: July 11 (aka 7/11) – Free Slurpies at 7-11 today !
|
| 12:35 |
: What is your prediction of how the AL East will end up when the season is over? From first place to last place.
|
| 12:35 |
: There’s a ZiPS projection update at ESPN on Friday
|
| 12:35 |
: Are you buying Matt Holliday in the second half? He’s crushing the ball, so his BABIP has to increase despite his age and lack of speed. Do you see the power continuing at a similar rate?
|
| 12:36 |
: I think he’ll be fine.
|
| 12:36 |
: Just the usual Matt Holliday stuff.
|
| 12:36 |
: Dammit, I’m already half an hour behind. ASK FEWER QUESTION. Gawd
|
| 12:36 |
: Do you see the possibility of an A’s/Mets blockbuster? Hill, Valencia, and Vogt are all considerable upgrades for the Mets, who really only have the one year of Cespedes to push.
|
| 12:37 |
: I think if blockbusters were in the works, the Mets wouldn’t have turned back to Jose Reyes
|
| 12:37 |
: How good is Marcus Semien? I believe he’s 1 dinger away from leading all shortstops?
|
| 12:38 |
: He’s good, but not amazing. If your’e a one-trick pony, HRs are the best trick to have, but he hasn’t been great otherwise and his long-term defense will still be meh-ish
|
| 12:38 |
: What would you say to people in sports media who insist that discussing political issues on twitter is something that they have an obligation to continue to profess given their platform over the average individual?
|
| 12:38 |
: Well, it comes down to their personal view.
|
| 12:38 |
: My view is that nobody’s reading me for politics and politics is a very divisive issue, so why go into there?
|
| 12:38 |
: And I’m not a fan of political twitterverse
|
| 12:39 |
: Subtlety fares poorly in 140 character bursts.
|
| 12:40 |
: so everything seems to end in a grudge match between paranoid men’s rights manbaby trolls and histrionic virtue-signalling cri de cœur safe-spacers.
|
| 12:40 |
: I couldn’t possibly have less interest in being a part of a dumbfiretruck culture war than I current have.
|
| 12:40 |
: What’s a realistic return for Aroldis Chapman?
|
| 12:40 |
: A B+ prospect.
|
| 12:40 |
: Who’s your 2016 contractual half-way busts? (aka not living up to their contract). Who’s your surprises?
|
| 12:41 |
: Ask me if I don’t write a piece on this!
|
| 12:41 |
: Are you worried at all about Jon Lester?
|
| 12:41 |
: Not really
|
| 12:42 |
: If an allstar got traded today, would he change All-star teams?
|
| 12:43 |
: I’ll be honest – I’m actually not sure at all. So this is more a question for you guys, just in case someone knows something offhand
|
| 12:43 |
: Because I can’t think about and answer this question in 60 seconds.
|
| 12:44 |
: Who bites the bullet and drops a top-50 prospect for Hill? Mets? Red Sox?
|
| 12:44 |
: Marlins?
|
| 12:44 |
: What do you think the chances are David Stearns actually keeps Lucroy? There’s been a lot of talk that he’s not going to let him go unless a team meets the high demand he’s had on him from the beginning.
|
| 12:44 |
: There’s some chance it carries over for awhile, but there’s no real reason to never trade him
|
| 12:44 |
: Re: Vampires. It’s Zobrist, he already doesn’t age.
|
| 12:44 |
: Would you rather drink two cups of coffee right before heading for bed or take a sleeping pill right after you wake up?
|
| 12:44 |
: Sleeping pill right after I wake up
|
| 12:45 |
: Are you nervous about Thor?
|
| 12:45 |
: No.
|
| 12:45 |
: I’m going to have to start banning these Are You Nervous About ________ After The Last Two Weeks? questions
|
| 12:45 |
: Next couple of prospects to get called up for fantasy purposes? Guys like Bregman are already gone, Arcia or Margot worth stashing you think?
|
| 12:45 |
: Arcia more than Margot.
|
| 12:45 |
: Padres have been moving slowly
|
| 12:46 |
: Josh Reddick for Paulo Orlando and Alec Mills. Who says no?
|
| 12:46 |
: A’s
|
| 12:46 |
: Puig out of baseball in 2 years? Not at his age or with that arm. He is struggling and his numbers are still respectable aside from the slug%
|
| 12:47 |
: He could be. If he’s hovering around a .700 OPS with his rep, he’s not going to get a lot of in terest
|
| 12:47 |
: What would a Sonny Gray trade package look like?
|
| 12:47 |
: Less than it did before. A’s should have traded him this winter
|
| 12:48 |
: Kim has basically outperformed his projections which were already pretty good. Is this sustainable? Can he be a future all star?
|
| 12:49 |
: I think star’s a stretch, but he should be able to hit liek Mark Grace for awhile
|
| 12:49 |
: Infante was the heart of the fans too. Why do you think he was being voted in so consistently?
|
| 12:49 |
: Heh
|
| 12:49 |
: What can Oakland hope for in return for Rich Hill?
|
| 12:49 |
: Well, as long as we’re talking hope, Mike Trout
|
| 12:49 |
: If Stras keeps it up, Cy Young in the future?
|
| 12:50 |
: Yes. Kershaw’s a short-term unknown and while writers have moved off win-loss, it can break a tie
|
| 12:50 |
: I’d actually vote for Bumgarner right now though
|
| 12:50 |
: More value to the Orioles in getting another corner OF (allowing them to move Trumbo to DH) or in getting a SP? Obviously a quality SP will help more but there doesn’t seem to be many on the market.
|
| 12:51 |
: Getting a SP would be more value, but the O’s are going to have trouble getting a SP that matters
|
| 12:51 |
: Rich Hill may now be the best Sp available this winter
|
| 12:52 |
: Unless Otani gets posted
|
| 12:52 |
: Hill won’t come cheap
|
| 12:52 |
: After hill, you have Garcia and Peavy, neither are likely to be traded
|
| 12:52 |
: So you have to look at guys that aren’t FAs this year. And they’ll be expensive and the O’s farm sucks.
|
| 12:52 |
: Devon Travis hit a one handed HR recently. Just let that sink in.
|
| 12:53 |
: Pete Gray didn’t hit a homer in the majors, but he did get a lot of hits
|
| 12:53 |
: well, not a lot, but a lot for a guy with one arm
|
| 12:53 |
: Eduardo Rodriguez is a 6’2” lefty that throws 97 at 23 years old. He is not a finished product..
|
| 12:53 |
: No, but there are some questions
|
| 12:53 |
: Will Stroman ever figure it out? What can we reasonably expect from him in the next couple years?
|
| 12:53 |
: I think he’ll be a steady 3 WAR guy. People again got tooe xcited
|
| 12:53 |
: Which july call up will bring the most heart and chemistry to their new team?
|
| 12:54 |
: Omar Infante, who will help the Braves grab that key number 1 pick
|
| 12:54 |
: Would/should an MLB team sign Shohei Otani if he demands to DH on the days he doesn’t pitch, like he does in Japan?
|
| 12:54 |
: Thank the gods he’s willing to?
|
| 12:54 |
: What more could we see the Diamondbacks do this season to prepare for 2017, if anything?
|
| 12:54 |
: Fire Dave Stewart?
|
| 12:54 |
: Is Rich Hill good from this day, until his dying day?
|
| 12:54 |
: It’s funny, ZiPS *loved* Hill when he was a prospect.
|
| 12:55 |
: But let’s not go nuts, Mormont.
|
| 12:55 |
: Who would you rather have in 2018? Khris or Chris?
|
| 12:55 |
: Do I get all the guys named Chris or just Davis?
|
| 12:55 |
: Do you believe in the Shohei Otani hype? I am certainly intruiged, myself.
|
| 12:55 |
: I do and am more than intrigued.
|
| 12:55 |
: My son Lamont. Have you seen him? How about Grady?
|
| 12:55 |
: Sorry, missed the ref
|
| 12:56 |
: For pre-season projections such as Fangraphs that project say 81 wins for a team, 81 games is of course the average we expect them to win. But do we know what the expected distribution of that team’s wins is?
|
| 12:56 |
: Well, unless FG prints it, no.
|
| 12:56 |
: Would I be crazy to think Matt Moore could potentially be my next JA Happ?
|
| 12:56 |
: He’d be a fun pickup. And he doesn’t pronounce his initials as if they area a name
|
| 12:56 |
: are a name
|
| 12:56 |
: He’d have to go as MC Moore but pronounce it Muck.
|
| 12:56 |
: should I ask Eno who the most balanced Hitler in the first half was?
|
| 12:56 |
: The Orioles have ~$7M in reported salary headroom for 2016. Can/should they just give all that to Mark Buehrle to come out of retirement?
|
| 12:57 |
: Eh, I’m not sure it’s the best park for Buehrle to stage a comeback
|
| 12:57 |
: Who gets a better contract this off season, Saunders or Bautista?
|
| 12:57 |
: Bautista
|
| 12:57 |
: Bautista’s contract will be awful, I think
|
| 12:57 |
: I have a knack for making the deals nobody expects (Kendrick, Wood/Latos, Frazier deal). What’s your prediction for my annual off the wall trade for this summer?
|
| 12:57 |
: It’s not off the wall if I know about it
|
| 12:57 |
: Who is Dan Szymborski?
|
| 12:58 |
: The motto on a really hack-y Atlas Shrugged ripoff, the original rather hack-y itself?
|
| 12:58 |
: Best WWE gif?
|
| 12:58 |
: All the RKO ones obviously
|
| 12:58 |
: Will the Braves regret moving to the suburbs? Seems like a weird move when everyone agrees Tampa Bay’s big problem is that their stadium isn’t downtown.
|
| 12:58 |
: No, but the suburbs will regret it.
|
| 12:58 |
: Brady Aiken? Is that the guy that won American Idol all those years ago?
|
| 12:59 |
: Do you think Markakis would be a solid addition to a contender if Atlanta kicks in cash? 50% of his remaining contract.
|
| 12:59 |
: No
|
| 12:59 |
: Well, he’ll be solid in his matter state.
|
| 12:59 |
: He’s not a liquid or a gas.
|
| 1:00 |
: Which is kind of too bad – if he was turned into a gas and dissipated into the atmosphere, the Braves wouldn’t have to pay him.
|
| 1:00 |
: Is Benintendi the kind of hitter you could see skpping AAA and still being successful?
|
| 1:00 |
: Yes
|
| 1:00 |
: Do you think Junior Guerra gets dealt this season? If so, what kind of return do you think the Brewers can expect? Very, VERY short track record.
|
| 1:00 |
: No
|
| 1:00 |
: Are there any players you’re nervous about?
|
| 1:00 |
: Well, Miller still
|
| 1:00 |
: Lorenzen closer in Cincy before year is over?
|
| 1:01 |
: You need wins to have a closer. The Reds will just throw whatever they have itno the role that isn’t too terrible at any given point
|
| 1:01 |
: Puig is the next frenchy at this point !
|
| 1:01 |
: re: french, minus being White and having the “good bench guy intangibles” labels of course
|
| 1:01 |
: Yeah, that’s the problem.
|
| 1:01 |
: White guys that are terrible are always scrappy.
|
| 1:01 |
: God forbid, if a pitcher tore his UCL in the all star game, what would baseball’s overreaction be? What about fans?
|
| 1:02 |
: Declare the season a tie and demand more stadiums
|
| 1:02 |
: The Marlins will drop a Top 50 prospect on Hill? Who is this mythical prospect in their system?
|
| 1:02 |
: Good point
|
| 1:03 |
: Samardzija made the All Star team with the Cubs but was ineligible to play when he was traded to the A’s.
|
| 1:03 |
: Thanks!
|
| 1:03 |
: One week we should have Question Outsource in which all questions are open for answers. And probably answered better than me, because I’m terrible.
|
| 1:03 |
: The greatest video currently on the internet is the guy who compiled all of Otani’s 2015 strikeout pitches and inexplicably set it to music by The Offspring https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L88TThVSJ9Y
|
| 1:03 |
: If you became a franchise doctor but made decisions purely based on ZiPS, ignoring scouting, player personalities, etc., how would you fare compared to normal organizations?
|
| 1:04 |
: Mediocrely (is that a word) because good organizations use all the information at their disposal.
|
| 1:04 |
: When do you see Dansby Swanson making his way to Atlanta?
|
| 1:04 |
: 2017
|
| 1:04 |
: Are you nervous about Dan Szymborski?
|
| 1:04 |
: I should be.
|
| 1:05 |
: Pretend you’re Ned Yost. Give the the pitchers you’d throw on Tuesday and the order you’ll throw them in.
|
| 1:05 |
: From a streategic standpoint, he should start Corey Kluber and have him pitch the entire game.
|
| 1:05 |
: I realize you aren’t MGL, but any thoughts on Jay Bruce’s ridiculously poor UZR (currently at -20.6 UZR/150)? Actually performing that poorly? Billy Hamilton effect? Some other systematic bias in the way UZR works?
|
| 1:05 |
: Don’t get nuts about short-term defensive stats.
|
| 1:06 |
: Three months of UZR/150 is like one month of OPS.
|
| 1:06 |
: Why would Hill cost so much? He’s likely not to pitch much after being acquired. His history says it all. Fragile as a wet paper bag. He’s 36, and a rental.
|
| 1:06 |
: Because the market sucks
|
| 1:06 |
: OK, we’re after one, so let’s go into the Lightning Round
|
| 1:07 |
: The rules are simple: I must answer every question, so long as it’s off-topic and not one of the forbidden ones (work-related, excessively personal)
|
| 1:07 |
: Like I’m not answer questions about my sex life or my colleagues.
|
| 1:07 |
: And this continues until I catch up or arbitrarily decide I’m done.
|
| 1:07 |
: (Gotta have an out)(
|
| 1:07 |
: and GO
|
| 1:08 |
: How does bullfighting still exist?
|
| 1:08 |
: Cultural things ar ehard to overcome
|
| 1:08 |
: I was playing a Yogg ‘n Load Hunter deck yesterday, and I had only 6 HP and lethal on my opponent. I also had Yogg in hand and was able to play him. So I played Yogg, and the first thing he did was Pyroblast my face. I made the correct choice, right?
|
| 1:08 |
: Yes
|
| 1:08 |
: Always gotta do Yogg
|
| 1:08 |
: What’s your most fun deck in Hearthstone right now?
|
| 1:09 |
: Yogg druid
|
| 1:09 |
: If someone dies while playing Pokemon Go, or causes someones death, could Nintendo be held liable?
|
| 1:09 |
: Probably. Lots of cases I find dumb
|
| 1:09 |
: Autonomous vehicles: panacea or vaporware? Big upside to the tech but a Tesla just killed a guy and Google is quietly revising their timeframe to “30 years.”
|
| 1:09 |
: Dumbasses kill people constantly
|
| 1:09 |
: I think they’ll still come
|
| 1:09 |
: Dan I’m dealing with a broken heart and difficulties connecting with the lady of my dreams. What should I do to get her back?
|
| 1:09 |
: The D.E.N.N.I.S. System is foolproof.
|
| 1:09 |
: Are you nervous about the Zombie Apocalypse?
|
| 1:09 |
: Yes. I have no skills that will help the survivors
|
| 1:09 |
: Do you watch Mr. Robot?
|
| 1:10 |
: On my to-watch but have not.
|
| 1:10 |
: On the Mel Brooks comedy scale (me getting a paper cut to you falling into a manhole), where do the upcoming RNC and the upcoming Olympic games fall?
|
| 1:10 |
: Mel Brooks comedies tend to be intentionally funny
|
| 1:10 |
: If you’re fighting giant crabs in bars, Dan, perhaps you are frequenting the wrong bars. In some, hygiene is better.
|
| 1:10 |
: Wine Preference, Red, White or the Pink Shit?
|
| 1:10 |
: Red, but i’m not really a wine guy
|
| 1:10 |
: Are you going to play no man’s sky?
|
| 1:10 |
: Absofiretruckinglutely
|
| 1:10 |
: Do you watch Game of Thrones?
|
| 1:10 |
: No. Because the season is over.
|
| 1:10 |
: Do you prefer the book or film ending of The Natural?
|
| 1:10 |
: Book.
|
| 1:11 |
: Both because it works better and because I’m related to Malamud
|
| 1:11 |
: We can’t ask you about your sex life? Can we ask if it even exists?
|
| 1:11 |
: Because there are boundaries even in the wildest, wackiest chat on the internet
|
| 1:11 |
: If you had to be an animal, which would you be and why?
|
| 1:12 |
: Well, a human, becuase we’re animals.
|
| 1:12 |
: Who’s the Lebron James of the fastfood world?
|
| 1:12 |
: Five Guys?
|
| 1:12 |
: Article idea: MLB teams as Hearthstone deck archetypes
|
| 1:12 |
: At the very least, it’ll confuse both the MLB and eSports editors
|
| 1:12 |
: In Denver they now have a light rail system that goes directly from downtown to the airport. Why does every city not have this?
|
| 1:12 |
: Depends on the city layout, both for practicality and cost to build
|
| 1:12 |
: Why won’t xbox one make a baseball game?
|
| 1:13 |
: It’s a big undertaking and the one they did have, gone now, totally sucked
|
| 1:13 |
: Supercell worth the billions China paid for it?
|
| 1:13 |
: Probably not
|
| 1:15 |
: Which of the three super ninjas from Big Trouble In Little China would be the best all around ballplayer?
|
| 1:15 |
: Thunder
|
| 1:15 |
: Is NPR getting kickbacks from google? They mention autonomous cars at least once per segment
|
| 1:15 |
: NPR likes that stuff
|
| 1:15 |
: What is a Pokemon?
|
| 1:15 |
: Pokémon without the accent
|
| 1:15 |
: Don’t be worried about the zombie apocalypse, you’ll probably end up being a zombie, as will most of us.
|
| 1:15 |
: Black Lives Matter or All Lives Matter
|
| 1:15 |
: Yes
|
| 1:16 |
: Favorite widely available beer?
|
| 1:16 |
: Sam Adams Boston Lager?
|
| 1:16 |
: Do you worry about EMP attacks? There’s randomly now a plank in the GOP platform about them.
|
| 1:16 |
: No stuff that’ll make my electronics not work, that scares me shipless
|
| 1:16 |
: armageddon or deep impact?
|
| 1:16 |
: Never actually saw deep imapct
|
| 1:16 |
: Rick Astley or Milli Vanilli?
|
| 1:16 |
: Astley? At least he did his own schlock.
|
| 1:16 |
: There should be no boundaries in the Dan Szymborski mediocre chat of mediocrity
|
| 1:17 |
: How excited are you to see new photos of Jupiter?
|
| 1:17 |
: I didn’t know about them but just now
|
| 1:17 |
: More likely to win in a fight: Richard Simmons or PeeWee Herman?
|
| 1:17 |
: Peewee Herman is younger, so him
|
| 1:18 |
: Whoa. How are you related to Malamud?
|
| 1:18 |
: My grandfather and him have a common grandparent or great-grandparent (I forget which)
|
| 1:19 |
: Mouse + keyboard > controller for fps?
|
| 1:19 |
: Well duh
|
| 1:19 |
: Shouldn’t athletes use their platform for politics more since most of them come from the part of society no one really listens to?
|
| 1:19 |
: Their choice
|
| 1:19 |
: How did you like the “Sunny” episode this season based on sartres no exit
|
| 1:19 |
: It was very funny and it was surprisingly sweet towards the end
|
| 1:20 |
: and it had one of my favorite moments
|
| 1:20 |
: when charlie gets a gun and is suddenly competent
|
| 1:21 |
: “None of should have a gun”
|
| 1:21 |
: “But…one of us does…so….the end.”
|
| 1:22 |
: Since you seem to be an rpg nut, have you tried out Grand Kingdom? It’s like disgaea and final fantasy tactics had an ugly baby.
|
| 1:22 |
: Don’t actually yet hav ea PS4 or Vita
|
| 1:22 |
: Excited for I am Setsuna?
|
| 1:22 |
: I’m quite interested and it’s on Steam!
|
| 1:22 |
: “Bless your heart” just southerner-speak for “go fuck yourself” or am I missing some nuance here?
|
| 1:23 |
: It’s like one of those untranslateable german terms
|
| 1:23 |
: Liek Schnapsidee
|
| 1:23 |
: What is the best documentary you’ve watched on Netflix?
|
| 1:23 |
: Don’t really watch documentaries
|
| 1:23 |
: is “the newsroom” as bad as people say it is???
|
| 1:24 |
: I found it pretty awful and stopped watching it quickly. Maybe it got better
|
| 1:24 |
: Sup Dan?
|
| 1:24 |
: Not till later.
|
| 1:24 |
: Do you believe Steven Avery killed Teresa Halbach?
|
| 1:24 |
: don’t really know
|
| 1:24 |
: Supercell is easily worth that much. The creator of Flappy Bird was making at least 50k a DAY from ad revenue. Supercell has multiple IPs bringing in a butt ton of money already.
|
| 1:24 |
: Yeah, but I can’t help but think that these companies get bought when most of their interesting IPs are in the past
|
| 1:24 |
: A new Overwatch champ comes out on x?
|
| 1:24 |
: Don’t think they have a release date unless I missed it
|
| 1:24 |
: If pokemon were real, how soon would we all be dead?
|
| 1:24 |
: We could just put them back into the balls
|
| 1:25 |
: Your Thoughts on the ever expanding population of humans on Earth?
|
| 1:25 |
: It’s projected to peak around 2070 last I ch ecked so not necessarily ever expanding
|
| 1:25 |
: Using baseball scouting terms in non-baseball situations: 30-grade comedy or plus-plus ceiling?
|
| 1:25 |
: Who would you rather hear sing the God Bless America at the ASG: Rich Astley or PeeWee Herman?
|
| 1:25 |
: Pee Wee. I at least have nostalgia for him
|
| 1:25 |
: licorice or Jelly beans?
|
| 1:25 |
: Licorice. There’s no gamble
|
| 1:25 |
: I’m not answering 50 pokemon qs
|
| 1:25 |
: Everyone gains speed/agelessness subsequent to becoming a vampire, so the winner would be the most ruthless. Give me Machado.
|
| 1:26 |
: A.J. Pierzynski then
|
| 1:26 |
: for FPS would you say mouse and keyboard takes less skill than controllers?
|
| 1:26 |
: No, you have to be a controller deity to not suck against mouse/keyboard players
|
| 1:26 |
: You have a spiral notebook. It’s large and filled with notations and personal feelings. How many doodles would involve erotic vampire foreplay?
|
| 1:26 |
: None. Not into vampires
|
| 1:26 |
: Would you rather be forced to speak like Donald Duck at funerals or speak like Beavis and Butthead at weddings?
|
| 1:26 |
: Beavis and Butthead
|
| 1:26 |
: What would Neil deGrasse Tyson say about baseball if he were asked to comment on it?
|
| 1:27 |
: Awkward things like when he jumps into other subjects that aren’t his expertise
|
| 1:27 |
: Like when he announced that countries shouldn’t have constitutions, but just a big Cult of Reason thing.
|
| 1:27 |
: Would you rather have a literal cannon for an arm or literal pogo sticks for legs?
|
| 1:27 |
: Pogo sticks.
|
| 1:27 |
: All ice cubes should be spherical now. We have the technology. Change my view
|
| 1:27 |
: Cube can be stashed more efficiently
|
| 1:28 |
: You rather get poked by an umbrella or prodded with a cane?
|
| 1:28 |
: Cane
|
| 1:28 |
: Have a blessed day = go fuck yourself. Bless your heart is more “you are an idiot”
|
| 1:28 |
: If you don’t believe Avery is innocent, do you at least agree the cops planted evidence to help build their case?
|
| 1:28 |
: I think it likely
|
| 1:29 |
: Link to the population peaking in 2070?
|
| 1:29 |
: Would you rather eat the pages of a russian novel, or snort the ashes of 10 haikus?
|
| 1:29 |
: snort ashes
|
| 1:29 |
: Could you beat Eno in a submission match?
|
| 1:30 |
: I think so. Unless he’s specifically trained, my weight advantage is probably helpful
|
| 1:30 |
: What about Cistulli?
|
| 1:30 |
: Cistulli we can only have our showdown in a more dramatic fashion
|
| 1:30 |
: Like among the ashes of humanity’s downfall
|
| 1:30 |
: Why do you have four cats?
|
| 1:30 |
: Becaue I had three and got one more.
|
| 1:31 |
: remember, Dan: Alles hat ein ende, nur die Wurst hat zwei. Words to live by right there
|
| 1:31 |
: I think Corinne Landrey will beat both of you.
|
| 1:31 |
: . . . everything has an end, only sausage has two.
|
| 1:32 |
: I’m partial to ma-hi ma-hi, what’s your favorite fish to eat?
|
| 1:32 |
: because of smoking, salmon
|
| 1:32 |
: Jeremy Lin plays Dota and Gordon Hayward plays Starcraft. Why is the NBA so far ahead of MLB in e-sports participation?
|
| 1:32 |
: Not sure really
|
| 1:32 |
: You watch Lesnar’s fight? Thoughts?
|
| 1:32 |
: I did not unfortunately
|
| 1:32 |
: Neil deGrasse Tyson speaking about topics that aren’t his expertise makes my butt clench from the awkwardness.
|
| 1:32 |
: Pogs or Seltzer Water?
|
| 1:32 |
: seltzer
|
| 1:32 |
: Both my sister and brother-in-law are very athletic. Should I try to convince them to name their son “Braden” or something similar to boost my nephew’s chances of one day playing in MLB?
|
| 1:32 |
: Yes
|
| 1:32 |
: Are you more afraid of growing old or not growing old?
|
| 1:32 |
: Not
|
| 1:33 |
: I wanna at least get to my HOF vote!
|
| 1:33 |
: Which is greater? All the pickled peppers that Peter Piper can pick, or all the wood that a woodchuck can chuck?
|
| 1:33 |
: peppers. Peter Piper as a human has the ability to delegate work and hire people
|
| 1:33 |
: Peak oil: crackpot theory or inconvenient truth?
|
| 1:33 |
: An over-hysterical truth.
|
| 1:34 |
: Peak oil will happen as a matter of math, but the proponents are usually very poor at estimating sources of future oil
|
| 1:34 |
: Cistulli/Szmborski showdown would be like Anakin/Obi-Wan in Episode 3, except with more slapping and crying.
|
| 1:34 |
: Have you seen the Blitzball? Or the knock off, swerveball? What could Kershaw do with one of those?
|
| 1:34 |
: I have not
|
| 1:34 |
: what was the most influential moment of your life?
|
| 1:34 |
: Finding usenet
|
| 1:34 |
: What did you think of THE FINAL DELETION?
|
| 1:34 |
: Haven’t seen
|
| 1:34 |
: Favorite way to ride a horse?
|
| 1:35 |
: Not to
|
| 1:35 |
: That population graph was Afghanistan peaking in 2070. When set to WORLD, it shows continued growing past 2100….
|
| 1:35 |
: It’s not the only source, there are othe rprojections but none I could get in a few seconds
|
| 1:35 |
: rather play hockey or football without any pads/headgear?
|
| 1:35 |
: football
|
| 1:35 |
: You are the anti-Bond. You have to repulse a girl so badly at a bar that she leaves immediately…it’s to save the country, but you can’t be vulgar…what do you say?
|
| 1:35 |
: Hi
|
| 1:35 |
: Will we ever see the end of taxfunded stadiums for old curmedgeon billionaires?
|
| 1:35 |
: No
|
| 1:35 |
: Only when inflation makes them old trillionaires
|
| 1:36 |
: AND END
|
| 1:36 |
: it’s over, go home.
|
| 1:36 |
: Thanks for coming everybody! As a reminder, you can read my work at ESPN.com on both baseball and eSports (hearthstone and overwatch right now), chats and projections here at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter
|
| 1:36 |
: End communiqué.
|
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
bless your heart mtsw, have a blessed day