Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/12/2019

Dan Szymborski: Instead of getting into a random Twitter fight right at 11:58 AM and starting the chat late, I’m going to go against character and do the responsible thing and just start my chat at 11:58 AM!

ECDC: Would you give Scherzer the Verlander extension (2 years/$66 million) right now?

Dan Szymborski: Absotively, posilutely.

Bread Gardner: Gotta admit, not really digging this matte black/matte white motif for Players’ Weekend. I’d have loved to see more throwback jerseys… like, it would be legendary to have ’50s-era uniforms for the Yankees-at-Dodgers games, you know?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t mind everyone getting to choose their own. It’s not football and it’s not really hard to tell who is on what team from context.

Bread Gardner: I would like to call attention to Suzyn Waldman’s recent nomination to the Radio Hall of Fame; unfortunately, she was not elected. She’s a genuine trailblazer and I hope she someday gets a well-deserved place in Cooperstown.

Bread Gardner: Actual Knight, Multinational Treasure, MLB Shortstop Didi Gregorius spent his rehab learning to draw. His Instagram is the best thing he does on social media (even better than his post-win emoji-laden tweets). One recent sketch turned Brett Gardner into the clown of everyone’s nightmares, presumably because Brett Gardner is a practical joker with a hidden dark side. Please help me spread the word.

Bread Gardner: I was thinking about how we don’t appreciate how incredible our favorite ballplayers are and recalled an article Eno wrote in February for The Athletic about how major leaguers are Herculean in comparison to we mere mortals.  He and two buddies did some testing, and realized thusly:

“You might have one tool that comes close to major league quality. … Maybe there?s one thing that you could do around, let?s say, a Single-A level. But put them all together? We?re all really far from being able to do anything at even close to the level that professional baseball players are accustomed to.”

In conclusion, Mike Trout, Angel, is quite possibly the Archangel Michael. Because what he does is literally superhuman.

Dan Szymborski: I would disagree with Eno. I have successfully completed three gallon-of-milk challenges with monetary involvement and won a fourth, direct showdown.

Bread Gardner: Fill in the blank: “The funniest Players’ Weekend name is ________.”

Dan Szymborski: The lettuce emoji that Bettis is using

Ari: Odds Padres get to 79 wins?

Dan Szymborski: Dunno, 15%? They’re off the pace and there ought to be no inclination to make a push down the stretch. I’m pretty sure they don’t want Paddack at 150 innings this year

Dan Szymborski: But here’s the thing, let’s say the Padres finish at 75-87

Dan Szymborski: For some, that would be a bad year, but not for San Diego. This 75-87 year would be far more productive than their 71 and 74 win seasons earlier this decade.

Dan Szymborski: They used the year to *learn* things about their players. To *test* things.

Matt: Is a sandwich a hot dog?

Dan Szymborski: Of course not, what a ridiculous question.

Concrete fan: Which franchise is in the most hopeless position right now, the Orioles, Marlins or Royals?

Dan Szymborski: Royals

Dan Szymborski: Somewhat better willingness to invest in team than Marlins but a wrose farm system at this point

Jim Leyland Palmer: Can you explain why pitching prospects aren’t normally subject to service time manipulation?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure this is necessarily true

Jim Leyland Palmer: You buying any of the smoke that Dombrowski is done in Boston after this season?

Dan Szymborski: There have been a lot of rumors. When you combine a disappointing seasons with literally about 10 months in which nearly nothing has been done transactions-wise, I’d have to think D^2 isn’t completely safe.

Dan Szymborski: But this is a rumor. I would not imply that I have specific inside information about the Red Sox that would leave me more sure about this.

Dan Szymborski: And yes, journalists aren’t immune to having our backroom talks and amplifying something we believe might be true rather than actually is.

Gub Gub: At what point do we rewrite the fundamental laws of the universe to account for The Mets?

Dan Szymborski: I’m telling you, they accidentally ended up with a terrific trade deadline.

Dan Szymborski: They’re The Producers in baseball firm.

Dan Szymborski: You can almost see Jeff Bialystock fretting in the winter after making the playoffs that because of the team’s success, they’ll have to trade Syndergaard *and* Stroman in the offseason

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Dan, If you were to cut a tater tot lengthwise in half, fold a small piece of deli meat and put it between the two halves, would it be a sandwich?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, but an amuse bouche type sandwich

Soxtober2020: Are you excited for the return of the Highlander decks? Seems like games are a bit more fun and unpredictable in the current meta

Dan Szymborski: At least early on, one of the keys has been that the Quest rewards and Highland rewards aren’t gamebreaking.

Dan Szymborski: When you have quests that essentially provide infinite value, Control decks die and control decks are always a good check against greedy aggro or minion-based decks.

IsIt2020Yet?: Local media in Pittsburgh finally asking if it’s time for Huntington and Hurdle to go. How the heck does Bob Nutting even lure good replacements to the ‘Burgh without massive assurances of budget increase?

Dan Szymborski: I think the ownership is the problem, not H&H Baseball Factory

Yo-Yo: Hyped for the FF7 Remake?

Dan Szymborski: Ambivalent. I’m not that excited about it being recast as an action RPG (unless this has changed as I have not followed it super closely)

Dutch8: Ramon Laureano has been worth 5.1 WAR over his first 595 career PA, do you expect him to make his way into the top 50 trade values next year?

Dan Szymborski: That might be aggressive, but I’m a big fan

Dan Szymborski: But maybe it’s not aggressive and I’m overhedging?

Dan Szymborski: AND EVEN THIS IS A HEDGE ROFLMAO

S.S. Madre : Is this new, improved 2nd half Manuel Margot the real deal? I would love it if the Padres went into 2020 with one less question mark.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been talking up Margot for a long time, so there’s going to be some selection bias involved.

Dan Szymborski: I do think that he was never as bad as he was at his worst.

Dan Szymborski: He may not be a superstar, but I think there’s still a chance he’ll be Dave Cameron

Dan Szymborski: errr Mike Cameron

Alexander : The Arizona @ Colorado over/under is at 14. Is it smart to take the under given current wind predictions?

Dan Szymborski: I am unaware of the wind predictions.

Dan Szymborski: I rarely bet on individual games.

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Dear Dan: Bo Bichette Bo Bichette Bo Bichette Bo Bichette Bo Bichette Bo Bichette Bo Bichette Boba Fett Bo Bichette Bo Bichette Bo Bichette Bo Bichette Bo Bichette, also please Bo Bichette

Dan Szymborski: Boba Chette

Russell: I know it is small sample size but how much has Aaron Civale’s 3 major starts and his AAA so far impressed you and ZIPS?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS like his minor league performance and I’ve liked his MLB starts!

Nick Markakis: Is it actually possible to ban people from your chat?

Dan Szymborski: I believe so.

Roberto Beers: What is your favorite in-game baseball scenario? I’m intentionally leaving this a bit vague for interpretation.

Dan Szymborski: FIVE STRIKEOUT INNINGS

Alex: Have the A’s mishandled the Barreto/Profar situation at 2B?

Dan Szymborski: I would have liked patience, but in a playoff race, you can understand why the A’s are a bit risk-averse

Dan Szymborski: Barreto should be better than he played in his brief stint this year, but then again, Profar can also make a claim at being surprisingly lousy

Mike from FL (Lance Fan): The WAR numbers say Lance Lynn has been the most valuable pitcher in the AL, based on what he’s done so far. We know that’s retrospective. But where would you rank him in terms of the best pitchers in baseball?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure I’d give him my Cy Young vote (which I don’t have, I’m in an NL BBWAA chapter, so I mostly will vote on NL awards and I’m ROY anyway)

Dan Szymborski: But I do think he’s made steps that should change our opinion of him.

Dan Szymborski: Our opinions on a player should never be carved in stone.

Dan Szymborski: I can even envision a world in which Ian Desmond is a four-WAR player and I’m on no hallucinogens

IsIt2020Yet?: In “good replacement” re the Pirates question, my thinking was “how in the world does Bob Nutting convince Chaim Bloom to come to Pittsburgh?”

Dan Szymborski: Be willing, during the years the team is competitive, to have a $130 million payroll

Rich: Do the ZIPS ROS standings take into account player injuries in projecting future team win/loss records?  I’m thinking specifically about the Yankees and their division odds…seems should be lowered considering the replacement players.

Dan Szymborski: They use the depth charts which take these into consideration

Dan Szymborski: And they’re ZiPS/Steamer combined ROS!

Dan Szymborski: When we’re talking about standings

Yo-Yo: Who is the Cardinals’ first $200 million man? Rendon makes a lot of sense, if they are willing to play Carpenter at second base for two years.

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, after this brutal season, I’m not sure they want to necessarily commit to starting Carpenter anywhere.

Dan Szymborski: He might be in the spot where his best contribution is as a versatile 10th starter

Dbo: Dan, if a grilled cheese is a sandwich then a quesadilla with two separate tortillas must be a sandwich too!

Dan Szymborski: There’s a certain validity to that point of view

Dbo: Is two slices of pizza face down on eachother a sandwich?

Seamus Catuli: Aristedes Aquino.

Dan Szymborski: That Aristbrbrbrbrbrbrbrbrbrbrbrbrbrbrbers Aquino

Dan Szymborski: Dbo, there has to be a separate ingredient that they’re “hugging”

Matty B: Should Seattle try to keep Haniger through their expected contention window or trade him in the next year or two if he rebuilds his value?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t be rushing him out the door, but I’d be open to trading him if the price is right.

Galileo: OK..so I can’t open a milk container because I have paws …not a thumb and fingers. A man that would torment his cat like that would probably also irritate his wonderful mother by playing a musical genre she hates. We all know where you sleep..and we are watching you.🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬😱😱😱☠️☠️☠️

Dan Szymborski: Galileo still gets like 16 ounces of milk a day. He has a special milk cry that he makes on the kitchen counter.

Dan Szymborski: This is what’s being referred to.

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: Also, my mom hates ragtime music, so when I know she’s coming over, I’ll be making sure to play ragtime music on the piano, which I partially learned because of her annoyance with it.

Ryan: Does whether or not Maddon is managing the Cubs next year rely on the results of this season?

Dan Szymborski: No

Gorland: Hey Dan you wanna fight me

Dan Szymborski: That’s hardly enough information

LFC Mike: If I hit a HR against an Oriole pitcher is it considered a great accomplishment?  I haven’t played organized baseball since I was 10 if that matters.

Ryan: Is Yu Darvish good again?

Dan Szymborski: Getting there

Gub Gub: Does FanGraphs let you use your own helmet, Dan?

Dan Szymborski: I WILL REFUSE TO WRITE ANY ARTICLES IF FANGRAPHS TAKES AWAY MY SPECIAL WRITING SHIRT

Billy Beane: Hey Dan, what kind of R2 do you end up with on the various projections that ZiPS makes? I am in the process of building a projection system and realized I have no idea what would be a good result.

Dan Szymborski: I mostly work in calibration with the percentiles: do 10% of players fall within the 10% cohort, etc.

Dan Szymborski: The exact r^2 depends on the data and the time period and who qualifies

Dan Szymborski: If you want better advice, it may be suited for email or a DM

Guest: I can’t believe the Red Sox still have a 6% chance at making the playoffs

Dan Szymborski: They wouldn’t be the first team that looked dead in the water going on a surprising run

Chris: How funny and terrible will it be when Brodie wins executive of the year

Dan Szymborski: BOTH

Chris: Kelenic is in double a thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: Well, he was excellent in Cali and that league isn’t as crazy offense as it once was

Dan Szymborski: (and they have not adopted the MLB/AAA TOTALLY NOT JUICED AT ALL BRUH baseballs)

Magic Kingdome: For hopeless franchises, what if the Royals started acquiring more speedy centerfielders with questionable bats, slick-fielding utility infielders, and pitchers who throw mostly sinkers with questionable command?

Dan Szymborski: It would be amusing at least

CamdenWarehouse: Highlander decks, plural? Don’t they know there can be only one?

ben: Hi Dan, thanks for chatting. What do you see the Braves doing with Soroka down the stretch?

Dan Szymborski: Depends on the exact competitive situation

Chris: Can the tigers successfully lose the most games of all time?

Dan Szymborski: No way, they’re too far off the pace

Dan Szymborski: They already have 35 wins.

Dan Szymborski: they have to go 7-40 to finish with a120 losses

Dan Szymborski: That’s what, a .150 or so winning percentage?

Khaki Segura: Mike Tauchman:  Highest fWAR in MLB since the All-star break, with fewer PA than everyone else in the top 10.  Is he the Real Deal ™.  Also, to quote HOFer Jayson Stark:  “Baseball!”

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure he was the real deal, but I always felt he wa sa player of unknown value that should have been explored.

Dan Szymborski: This is what I wrote in March.

Dan Szymborski:

Jett: Dan, thanks for the chat. Do you believe Sixto will eventually land in the operating room? Many outlets predict this, and while you hate to read stuff like that, you know stuff that we don’t.

Dan Szymborski: I’ll sadly take the surgery bet in any pitcher that ever existed.

LFC Mike: The universe had a hiccup and the Royals wound up with Jorge Soler who has 35 home runs. Did the Royals accidentally win him in a poker game gone bad because they aren’t normally that astute at acquiring players…that or the law of large numbers that says eventually you have to get something correct if you try it enough actually works.🥃

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t think it was a bad pickup.

Dan Szymborski: I felt the Royals shouldn’t have traded Davis if they were going to pretend to still compete it whatever year that was (before 2017 was it?) but it was a reasonable pickup

Dan Szymborski: Soler always had potential.

Dan Szymborski: And the Royals get credit for exploring that potential, even if they waited a year too long to do so

Dan Szymborski: Problem is, of course, that the main use of Soler, Merrifield, and Dozier, ought to be who they can get, not from playing them and I see no reason to think the Royals undersrtand this

pirates hurdles: I dunno Dan, its pretty hard to absolve H&H of all blame. Huntington has made two bad major trades in the last year and his zig (contact approach) versus the leagues zag towards power has turned out pretty terrible. For Hurdle, he is the type of guy who’s schtick can work for a while, but people get tired of the pseudo-psychology stuff. He has been at the helm of some pretty epic collapses. At the very least Searage and hsi pitch to contact has been hurt worst than most by the new ball.

Dan Szymborski: I think the problem is largely that the handcuffs have made things harder; there are limited ways for the Pirates to get a player like Archer if they don’t develop them himself

cavebird: Why are you an ingredient purist when it comes to chili but not sandwiches (where you are a structural purist, it appears)?

Dan Szymborski: Sandwiches describe a form factor while chili a specific dish

LFC Mike: ⚾️  🎹 🥪 🌮 🍔 🥩 🍕 🍪 🥃 This sums up a typical Dan chat. correct?

Gorland: fortnite

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t played in a while, though I’m not opposed to it! FFXIV expansion came out, I got a PS4, etc.

Gub Gub: How much of your current job could you do on the back of a jet ski?  Obviously you can’t drive and work, but on the back with, let’s say…Wily Mo Pena driving?

Dan Szymborski: Water is really bad for laptops

Donkey Kong: Which Jack Flaherty is the real Jack Flaherty?

Dan Szymborski: That’s why breaking into a player’s house and stealing their blood while they sleep was invented.

Chat Mapman: Hot take -The Producers tries too hard to be provocative and has not aged well at all (although Gene Wilder was fantastic)

Dbo: Dan, I got about halfway through a Giants game only to realize that it wasnt actually a Giants game but actually The Real Housewives of Orange County, has this ever happened to you?

Dan Szymborski: Remember when Bravo started out as an artsy channel?

Dan Szymborski: now it’s Top Chef and obnoxious people screeching at each other

Matt: THE PIZZA TOPPING IS THE HUGGED INGREDIENT, DAN

Dan Szymborski: No, because they were integrated into the “bread” used

Dan Szymborski: Two slices of raisin bread aren’t a raisin sandwich

Jeff: Has Theo fixed Happ? That would be something

Dan Szymborski: I won’t call him fixed until he stops proununcing his initials like they’re a word

Vic: Can you still feel good about the ZIPS 2020 and 2021 projections for Garrett Hampson?

Dan Szymborski: I think so

Matt: Do rags really run on different time?

Dan Szymborski: Waitk what?

LFC Mike: What do you make of Nomar Mazara and his  lack of improvement (decline?) since he burst onto the scene and seemed a sure star in the making? Change of scenery needed?

Dan Szymborski: I finally had to stop putting him in my breakouts list

Dan Szymborski: Occasionally, he crushes one and you see the raw power, but it just doesn’t come up anywhere near as often as it should.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know how to fix Mazara at this point.

Big Amoco Sign: What does Mozeliak see in Dakota Hudson to warrant a rotation spot? What’s the secret sauce they like here?

Dan Szymborski: dat slider

Gub Gub: Have you ever had a family argument where the opportunity to play saloon fight music has come up?  If so, how  do you resist the urge?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have the proper honky tonk sound

Honker: If you had a to start a new franchise with either Gavin Lux or Wander Franco as your SS of the future, which would you choose?

Dan Szymborski: I like Lux, but Franco

Carter: Frie Kieboom. Baseball needs his name up in the bigs already

Dbo: Dan, I think we should collaborate on some articles. I have minimal baseball knowledge and a limited vocabulary so you’ll have to do all of the work. You should think about it!

Tim Tebow: Is this the end of the line for me?

Dan Szymborski: If logic can’t stop your rise through the minors, why would happenstance?

Don’t forget to use the emjois!!: !!!

Cove Dweller: This time next year, Chris Davis will be ________. (Please fill in the blank.)

Dan Szymborski: lousy

Rich Hill: Any chance I secure better than 2/20 in the upcoming FA?

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan Szymborski: Well, there’s a chance

WTF: The Jays announcers, sort of joking, called Urshela “one of the best hitters in baseball” yesterday. It’s funny, but he… has… actually… been a very good hitter? When does he turn back into awful?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t know if he’ll go be back to awful

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’s a star, but our evaluations should change based on subsequent stuff

Dan Szymborski: BAE’S THEOREM

Dan Szymborski: (I know it’s Bayes)

J: Gio Urshela is a true talent ____ WAR player moving forward

Dan Szymborski: some

Sean: Did the Red Sox mess up by keeping D^2 instead of Mike Hazen? In just a few years, Mike Hazen has completely transformed the team’s minor league talent (now a top 5 farm system) WHILE also keeping a competitive team in the interim. Meanwhile the Red Sox won a World Series and then… meh?

Dan Szymborski: I would have personally kept Hazen.

Steamed Hams: Would it make sense for the Red Sox to sell off a major league piece to replenish the farm a bit in order to look towards the future? Specifically a guy like Benintendi could command a nice little haul.

Dan Szymborski: If you can’t extend Betts, I think you seriously have to explore trading him this winter

Sean: WoW classic update: decided yet if you’re gonna play?

Dan Szymborski: On the fence. So many quality-of-life updates in MMOs make it hard to go back to older one.

Dan Szymborski: I happily played FFXI on and off from 2004-2009. I could not go back

Matt: If you’re excluding the “pizza sandwich”, then you must exclude a PB&J. In assembling the PB&J, you must put one ingredient on each piece of bread thus integrating them (try to remove either the peanut butter or jelly once applied…I dare you).

Dan Szymborski: I’ll have to consider it.

HappyFunBall: Raisins are IN the raisin bread. Pizza toppings are not in the crust.

Ralph Rowdie : Who is the best Ninja Turtle?

Dan Szymborski: Raphael

Ryan: Re: Maddon managing the Cubs next year. If this season’s results have no impact, do you think he’s managing the Cubs next season?

Dan Szymborski: I think he does

Guest: Seems a little late to be building a projection system, Billy.

Dan Szymborski: There are always new ideas

Bigfoot Erotica: The Tigers’ top 5 in positional player WAR on the active roster includes a pitcher with two PAs and the ever-awful Gordon Beckham. I know it would be highly unlikely for them to lose 120 games, but does Zips have any odds for it? They are somehow losing even more frequently than the O’s

Dan Szymborski: Again, they were too weirdly acceptable in APril

Dan Szymborski: they’re too far behind the awesome losing pace needed

Ray Kinsella: Will your cats bite the hand that feeds them?

Dan Szymborski: No, but Galileo will bite my ear if he thinks I’m not paying attention to the cogent arguments he’s making

MilwaukeeBeerJays: I am also playing arena during this chat. trying to finish that singleton event. Not sure i’m in love with Commander/only one card per deck formats. Do you play limited at all Dan? (draft, sealed)

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t dipped as much into MTG Arena as I ought to have. I was a big magic player in the very early days, but got otu of the habit

3rd base: Leaving LeMahieu aside (which, another WTF), should the Yankees trade rehabbing Andujar or sell high on Urshela this winter?

Dan Szymborski: I think you explore everything. I dont’ believe in untouchables

Dan Szymborski: If someone buys high on Urshela, I’d be inclined to accept.

Dan Szymborski: Also, because I make great use of my time.

Dan Szymborski:

Sean: Regarding WoW Classic: I miss the challenge of the old game. I don’t like how easy things like dungeon/raid finders, simplification of classes and stats, etc. made the game. Early WoW did such a tremendous job of making you feel truly immersed in a world where every class and race were unique. I’m super excited to go back to that, even if it’s just to enjoy a 1-60 grind and then call it quits.

Dan Szymborski: I’d like the more complex ladder, but I like the easy finders.

HappyFunBall: Two slices of pizza facing each other is not structurally different than a grilled cheese sandwich with a slice of ham and/or tomato

Dan Szymborski: I will have to ponder these

White Sox Fan: Who’s more responsible for the mess?  Ownership or FO?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the organization’s necessarily a mess. It’s just that it’s a long road and it’s also hard when you have three key parts of your future have TJ surgery within months

jim: where was Laurila’s Sunday column?

Dan Szymborski: David was busy in Boston, I believe

Chippy: With Paddack limited to 90 IP last season, how much further would you expect the Friars to let him go this season?

Dan Szymborski: I’d be surprised if they went far north of 130

Overbearing Padre: Would you trade Luis Urias for Merrifield seeing as how Urias is slow-starting and if Merrifield doesn’t work out, Pads have Xavier Edwards and CJ Abrams not too far behind?

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan Szymborski: I like Merrifield, but there are teams that should pay mor ethan the Padres ought to be willing to

Justin D: O/U: 1.5 career MVPs for Ronald Acuna!

Dan Szymborski: I’ll say over

Dan Szymborski: In terms of win shares

Dan Szymborski: err mvp shares

Blyer: How can we analyze high-LOB pitcher, like JV and Ryu? Might just luck?

Dan Szymborski: I’m finding it’s just not that usefully predictive

Dan Szymborski: The noise overwhelms the signal

Dan Szymborski:

Overbearing Padre: Pads say they’re target a frontline starter, but they’ll also need a middle of the order hitter. Their offensive stats are all towards the bottom of the league. So, who should they target to bat next to Tatis and Machado?

Dan Szymborski: I’m nto sure they need a middle of the order hitter necessarily

Dan Szymborski: And it’s tricky in that they’re not benching Hosmer

Dan Szymborski: Or releasing Myers

Dan Szymborski: I would hope they seriously go after Gerrit COle

Dees: I feel like everyone should talk more about pitcher hitting.  Picking up or losing a half WAR every year is a big deal!  And putting Greinke in the AL is inherently irrational.

I just have to say…: ..I’m getting a doctorate and got an A in my stats class and now I finally understand a lot more of what has been written on here over the many years!

LFC Mike: What is for lunch Dan? 🥪 🌮 🍲 🍕 🍔

Dan Szymborski: I’m thinkign about ordering a cheesesteak

Dan Szymborski: And on that note, it’s time for me to depart for another week.

Sean: Pizza is a pie. If you took two cherry pies and placed them crust-side to crust-side, you don’t have a cherry pie. There is no filling. That’s not a sandwich.

Dan Szymborski: Chicago pizza is a pie, other types aren’t really, I don’t think

Dan Szymborski: But that’s a brutal argument to have another time!