2019

August 6, 2019

2:01	Dan Szymborski: IT IS CHAT TIME

2:01	Appa Yip Yip: Is Marcus Stroman the Mets best infielder now?

2:01	Dan Szymborski: It’s possible, lol!

2:02	Zipp: LFGM

2:02	Dan Szymborski: My favorite thing about the Mets is that they essentially had a terrific deadline (picking up Stroman and NOT trading Thor or Wheeler) because they failed their second part of that plan.

2:02	Philip: 2 questions: Is the zips stats only prospect ranking going to happen? And with the 3 year Zips projections is there a plan to have auto daily updates based on new statistical changing info?

2:03	Dan Szymborski: Yup. I’m trying to figure out when to do it in the winter so I can do it 6 months apart. I’m trying to hit for next week since August will be slower than usual.

2:04	Seth lugo: Lugo is 3 outs away from a reliever perfect game and hasn’t given up a hit in 10 innings. Is he somehow the one underrated player who plays in New York?

2:04	Dan Szymborski: He’s a solid reliever! I should note there have been plenty of underrated New York players.

2:04	Dan Szymborski: Gary Sanchez right now.

2:04	Dan Szymborski: Bernie Williams

2:05	Dan Szymborski: Mike Mussina

2:05	CamdenWarehouse: I miss the weekly Cistulli jabs. Can you find some way to work them into the chats or articles?

2:05	Dan Szymborski: I try to keep them only occasional since it’s harder for him to be mean back now.

2:05	Moose_Bolton: Do you have an opinion on the different styles of barbecue and if so would you share it with us? I was just in Memphis over the weekend and the opinion of the people that I went with was that their ribs were very good.

2:05	Dan Szymborski: I do like Memphis ribs

2:06	Dan Szymborski: But the style I like the best generally is the east NC style

2:06	Dan Szymborski: especially with pulled pork

2:06	Dan Szymborski: vinegar-and-pepper without any tomato!

2:06	Dbo: Have you heard the news that the Phillies might lose the Fanatic as a mascot?!? Who should they replace him with?

2:07	Dan Szymborski:

2:08	Tim: How should I be parsing BaseRuns saying that the Yankees record is +10 games better than it should be? Is BaseRuns predictive of future performance enough that we should believe that they are really about as good as the Rays, but have just been lucky?

2:08	Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t call it predictive as it’s a past measure

2:08	Dan Szymborski: But it does indicate underperformance based on expectations

2:08	Dan Szymborski: From the stats

2:08	Dan Szymborski: not people’s expectations

2:08	Jim Leyland Palmer: Dan, what are you thoughts on abortion?

2:08	Dan Szymborski: Really?

2:09	Dan Szymborski: It either has to be a relevant political Q or something that you guys badger me into answering for me to answer things like this

2:09	Dan Szymborski: Like the dude who sent like 40 pro-Maduro Qs to me in one week.

2:10	Dan Szymborski: Although I probably shouldn’t actually advise that the way for one to get what they want is to annoy me mercilessly

2:10	Matt: Don – Haven you ever even tried to measure Heart & Hustle (either independently or together)? How does that factor into your zipper machine?

2:10	Dan Szymborski: heh

2:10	Dbo: I have to attend a work meeting, I’ll try to come back on in 30 minutes Dan

2:10	RJ: The chat is late!

2:10	Dan Szymborski: When I rescheduled, I totally forgot about Justin’s noon chat!

2:12	Jim Leyland Palmer: Will we see the Os / Tigers mathematically eliminated this month? Post mortem article series to follow?

2:12	Dan Szymborski: Towards the end of the month

2:13	Dan Szymborski: Definitely interested in doing that series again, did you guys enjoy it?

2:13	Ichiro for CEO: Mets are going to end up in game 163 for the right to be the 2nd wild card, aren’t they?

2:13	Dan Szymborski: I’m down for bonus baseball

2:13	Bread Gardner: Considering how many replacements are playing to (I assume) their 90th percentile projections, how many wins have the Yankees actually lost due to injury?

2:13	Dan Szymborski: Probably not that many. That they didn’t lose a ton of wins is the impressive part!

2:13	dude: Did the Giants make a mistake not trading Bumgarner and Smith, even if maybe they weren’t getting what they were asking for? Their playoff hopes are pretty dim (2%) right now.

2:13	Dan Szymborski: I think not trading Smith was a mistake.

2:13	Dan Szymborski: Considering what Stroman landed, I’m not sure Bumgarner would have even landed enough to care about

2:14	CeddyBReady: You completely Britta’d this chat. Which basically makes you the Mets of Fangraphs chats.

2:14	Bread Gardner: What is your favorite baseball copypasta?

2:14	Dan Szymborski: I don’t think I have a baseball copypasta

2:16	Dan’s Mom: So sorry for the delay everyone. Danny had to clean up his room before I would let him start his Fan Stats Graphs Chatterbox.

2:16	Dan Szymborski: Ha, my real mom can’t remember who I work for.

2:16	Matt: Billion Dollar Idea: A man-made mountain for skiing (or boarding) in the offseason, shaped after the time series playoff % of the prior season’s biggest collapse.

2:16	Cameron: Wait did you actually call the July 2019 Amed Rosario breakout in 2017?

2:16	Dan Szymborski: I saw Mirchin tweet that but to be honest, I don’t remember that

2:18	Dan Szymborski: While I’d like to take credit, I’m psychologically unable to take credit for something without knowing if I should take credit.

2:18	Jim Leyland Palmer: Do you have any thoughts on the recent brush-up between Fenech and McCosky on twitter? Our beat writers are more interesting than our team :/

2:18	Dan Szymborski: The problem is that beat writers have different sources for things and sources aren’t always honest

2:18	Jose Jose Jose!: Zim Bob! Thanks for chatting! Do you have high hopes for young Isan Diaz this season?

2:19	Dan Szymborski: Even with AAA going nuts, he showed a large enough improvement that I’m optimistic

2:19

Matt: The largest part of me is strongly disappointed by the Yanks’ (lack of) deadline moves. I kinda understand – between the things that were available, and the prices demanded, sure seemed like teams were calling Cash’s bluff, and asking way higher from us than anyone else. That said – I trust Tanaka, and if Sevy can come back strong, between him and German (innings limit, I assume), there’s a chance we don’t *need* a top end starter, no? There’s some chance to ride momentum to some wins, no?

2:19	Dan Szymborski: I think there are two things here

2:19	Dan Szymborski: I think some teams got cold feet about the returns.

2:20	Dan Szymborski: In light of the returns teams got, my trade suggestion for a Ray trade was way too much

2:20	Dan Szymborski: and conversely, I think the valuation of Minor’s trade value was actually right on

2:20	Dan Szymborski: Behind the scenes, I know the Yankees were trying to get things done. It just didn’t work out

2:20	Dan Szymborski: Now, you don’t get credit for trying and failing.

2:20	Dan Szymborski: But it’s better than not trying like the Rockies most deadlines.

2:21	Dan Szymborski: I think the Yankees got in a position like the Giants when the Giants failed to land a single one of the Marlins OF after lobbying hard for all three

2:21	LFC Mike: Alcides Escobar was released by the White Sox on Friday . I take it you just woke up from your celebratory bender over the weekend. 😵😵😵😵🤮🤮🤮🤮

2:21	Dan Szymborski: I actually haven’t had anything to drink since the weekend before the All-Star Game

2:21	Dan Szymborski: Drank way too much on panel night.

2:22	Dan Szymborski: Disturbingly, it’s caused me to lose a quick 15 pounds. Beer has a lot of calories.

2:23	Village Villar Idiot: I know everyone stood pat, but I was surprised the O’s couldn’t find a taker for for-the-cycle Villar (or Givens). Do you think it speaks more to the lack of trade willingness from the outside or from the inside of the O’s org?

2:23	Dan Szymborski: I don’t think there was a Villar market

2:23	Dan Szymborski: He’s versatile, but he kinda stinks at the positions you care about

2:23	Matt: Can you ask Appleman to provide a game split (for double headers) in the leaderboards when selecting single day? The site had essentially made my web scraper useless, and would be much less resource intensive go to daily, than by player (into game logs).

2:23	Dan Szymborski: Sure

2:23	Bigfoot Erotica: Do you believe the report that the Astros offered Bregman for Fullmer and Justin Wilson? That seems like an absurd overpay for HOU even in 2017

2:24	Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure. I don’t know the specific players being talked about, but I am familiar with the Tigers having very high demands

2:24	Built Ford Tough: Mike Ford = next Daniel Vogelbach?

2:24	Dan Szymborski: There’s only one Large Adult DH.

2:24	Meijer Customer Support: Dear Szym Danborski: We were not able to fill your order for Babies On A-Roof Candy Bar. Perhaps you would like to try some Reeses Feces Peanut Batter Craps instead. Thank you for letting us serve your sweet confectionary needs.

2:24	Dan Szymborski: DAMMIT MEIJER

2:25	Dan Szymborski:

2:25	Dan Szymborski: Meijer makes me mad every single week!

2:25	RJ: Regarding Gausman, is there any chance the Braves did not understand the waiver rules for August? “Wait, we can’t pull him back?”

2:25	Dan Szymborski: I’m writing about Gausman this afternoon for tomorrow!

2:25	Matt: Dave – Which metric do you rate higher: The Will to Win, or Veteran Presence? I’ve seen some studies say that TWTW is as much as 1.342 x VP.

2:25	Dan Szymborski: TWTW because it requires a will, not just the existence of a possible will

2:26	Dan Szymborski: Since TWTW already CONTAINS Veteran Presence in the proper configuration, there’s no need for VP

2:26	Dan Szymborski: Now, just like you still want to see BA in OPS, you want to see VP for shape.

2:26	Dan Szymborski: So you know who has TWTW by having veteran presence and who has TWTW by virture of being short and white.

2:27	Matt: Q’doba or Chipotle? Answer correctly, or you’ve lost a Twitter follower for life.

2:27	Dan Szymborski: Neither

2:27	Dan Szymborski: I live in suburban Dayton and there are FOUR taco places that are really good

2:27	Dan Szymborski: SUPPORT INDIE TACOS

2:27	Dan Szymborski: AND BURRITOS

2:27	Guest: Tim Beckham lol lol lol…

2:28	Mike: Dan, the discussion from a few weeks ago about grilled cheese really got under my skin. Just because the cheese melts and fuses the bread together doesn’t make it any less a sandwich.

2:28	Dan Szymborski: It’s a complex issue

2:28	Dan Szymborski: It’s SHAPED like a sandwich, but the pressures aren’t quite the same.

2:28	Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure a sandwich can be a single, indivisible entity

2:28	tan mom: had any of these?

2:29	Dan Szymborski: I’ve had a lot

2:31	Dan Szymborski: Sorry, flickered off and on

2:31	Dan Szymborski: Power flickered off and on

2:31	Dan Szymborski: It’s also pitch black outside so there’s either a thunderstorm nearby or a dragon ate the sun and we’re all gonna die in a few days

2:32	Dan Szymborski: OK, it’s a thunderstorm

2:33	Dan Szymborski: Hopefully not one of the tornado ones, that was a scary Dayton-related moment earlier this year!

2:33	CamdenWarehouse: The Orioles broadcast had a graphic with quotes from Chass yesterday. It was sad.

2:33	Dan Szymborski: dafuq?

2:33	CamdenWarehouse: I have a meeting too, Dbo. Chat during the meeting. No one will know.

2:34	Clint the Wildling: Is Mike Tauchman for real? I know his exit velo’s were all legit in AAA last year, and he’s an above average fielder and base-runner, but he’s been superb since his call up.

2:34	Dan Szymborski: For real as a fine 4th OF, yes

2:34	Dan Szymborski: I’m not he’s starter material

2:35	Szymbo SLice: Bellinger or Yelich for MVP? They are both super sexy…

2:35	Dan Szymborski: God, as of right now that’s a coinflip

2:35	Dan Szymborski: If it stays like this, it’s going to be a HARD NL vote.

2:35	Dan Szymborski: I’m on NL Rookie of the Year this year so I odn’t have to worry about that one!

2:36	Dan Szymborski: though Alonso/Tatis may be really hard

2:36	LFC Mike: Tim Beckham has been a bad bad man. PEDs 80 Game suspension. Thoughts to Meg Rowley during this tough time.

2:36	Bo Knows: Bo Bichette is a machine. Discuss.

2:36	Magic Kingdome: Dan, what are you thoughts on multi-use zoning?

2:37	Dan Szymborski: I’m not a fan of zoning laws generally

2:37	D: Did you ever think about how when you put ZIPS out into the world, the players may see it, and may subconsciously internalize it, then play up or down to its levels? I guess what I’m saying is, why did you ruin Mookie Betts’s hopes of catching and surpassing Mike Trout?

2:37	Dan Szymborski: I doubt anybody takes projections that seriously

2:37	Fang Raphs: Guys, I don’t know if Dan’s told you all, but there are emojis in this chat that can be utilized to highlight humorous or otherwise superlative posts

2:38	Hello: On the phone signing up for mandatory renters insurance now. Renters insurance is (a) stupid, (b) a necessary evil, (c) awesome?

2:38	Dan Szymborski: I think it’s a contractual matter between you and your landlord and none of my business.

2:38	FG.com guy: I know you’re not a big prospect guy, but it feels like there should be more hype about Grisham, right? His numbers AAA numbers were insane, and he’s only 22.

2:39	Dan Szymborski: I think the problem was that he didn’t really hit for that much power until this year

2:39	Dan Szymborski: And AAA’s gone nuts

2:39	Dan Szymborski: But I believe in allowing prospects and older non-prospects to prove you wrong is an important part of player development

2:39	James : What is your player’s weekend nickname?

2:40	Dan Szymborski: If Boxberger can have an emoji, I can have a graphic.

2:40	Dan Szymborski:

2:41	CamdenWarehouse: Is Lewis Brinson a bust or is still too soon?

2:41	Dan Szymborski: He’s getting busty

2:41	Dbo: I quit my job just to join the chat Dan

2:41	Dan Szymborski: I’ve got bad news: I’m only paying me.

2:42	Oddball Herrera: Am I the only one who feels a little bad for mediocre or worse players who get busted for PEDs? They get the public opprobrium without the pool of money to swim in!

2:42	Dan Szymborski: I just want someone to go full heel when caught for steroids

2:42	Dan Szymborski: I was hoping A-Rod would do that if he didn’t

2:42	Dan Szymborski: But Beckham should just talk about how awesome steroids are

2:42	Dan Szymborski: “Steroids are science, proles!”

2:42	Dan Szymborski: Mimic injecting yourself with an invisible syringe after every hit

2:44	Billy Beane: Hi Dan, as a baseball writer I assume you have strong opinions about interest rate environments. Do you share my concerns about the use of LIBOR in a no-deal Brexit? I’ll take my response via postcard.

2:44	Dan Szymborski: The uncertainty when the EU will even consider it as a benchmark after a Brexit situation is yet another obnoxious uncertainty

2:44	Magic Kingdome: Dan, what are you thoughts on a 0.25% special use tax on municipal boat launch fees?

2:45	Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s a problem so long as the money is being used on the local externalities of boat usage

2:45	CamdenWarehouse: but the TWTW means you have to get a lawyer involved to draft the will. That’s got to be a strike against it.

2:45	Dbo: Did you ever answer the question if you approve of Guy Fieri as the Secretary of Sandwiches? Who better than the mayor of flavor town?

2:46	Dan Szymborski: here’s the thing: I’m not sure about what executive functions he has as the Mayor of Flavor Town

2:46	Chuncey Wiggins: Is there another team that is currently succeeding despite a total faceplant in one area of their team, like the Braves? If you told me that Foltynenwiciziyaiaciw would be optioned and Guasman released. I’d assume they were 4th in the division.

2:46	Dan Szymborski: Well, you could say the Mets every time they have success

2:46	Dan Szymborski: But yeah, Folty/Gauze are horribly disappointing.

2:46	Kyler: Dan is Brian McCann a hall of famer? It makes me happy that he’s having a nice year for the Braves even though I can tell his career is nearing the end.

2:47	Dan Szymborski: it’s tough for me. It’s putting a LOT of faith into old framing stats

2:48	Slapshot: That hot dog chart is sadly missing Iceland, which makes a surprisingly good dog.

2:48	Dan Szymborski: OK, how about this

2:48	Dan Szymborski: Make three ice creams: mustard, hot dog, and hot dog roll. Then you have Neapolitan hot dog ice cream.

2:48	Dave: What is that picture of meijer? Are they like a gorcery store or something?

2:48	Dan Szymborski: It’s a grocery store with the WORST SEARCH ENGINE EVER

2:49	Dan Szymborski:

2:49	Dan Szymborski:

2:50	Dan Szymborski:

2:50	J: I was just in suburban Dayton and the folks behind me at a middle eastern counter service place didn’t know what falafel or shawarma were.

2:50	Dan Szymborski: now that’s weird!

2:50	Fang Raphs: Oh, man, I forgot you were in Dayton. Hoping all those close to you are okay and weren’t directly affected by the shooting

2:50	Dan Szymborski: Nobody I know was involved in that

2:51	Dan Szymborski: Someone close to my friend/former editor Christina Kahrl was injured though.

2:51	Dan Szymborski: The area is one I could be on a Saturday night if I’m stuck being social

2:51	Dan Szymborski: Go to Blind Bob’s just across from where the shooting is all the time

2:52	Dan Szymborski: Blind Bob’s, by the way, has BOURBON BEER BATTERED PINEAPPLE RINGS

2:52	Magic Kingdome: Dan, what are you thoughts on ordinance prohibiting use of jake brakes?

2:53	Dan Szymborski: I can see how noise is an issue. One could say that you have the right to a sound until it’s physically hurting someone’s ear?

2:53	Matt Harvey: Will i pitch again in the majors this year?

2:53	Dan Szymborski: No

2:53	LFC Mike: Dan…I knew you were in Ohio but I did not know you were in Dayton. I can’t begin to imagine what it was like this past weekend. Unfortunately The “Thoughts and Prayers” just don’t cut it anymore….

2:53	Dan Szymborski: Yeah, southern suburbs

2:53	Matt: Tauchman not starter material?! He seems to be made of the same materials that the other starters are. Flesh, blood, bone, muscle, etc.

2:53	Dan Szymborski: TWTW

2:53	CamdenWarehouse: After last week I can’t stop thinking of him as Boba Chette

2:54	Oddball Herrera: If you were a public figure, wouldn’t it be fun to go onto forums under your own name and say random shit, knowing that no one will ever believe it’s actually you?

2:54	Dan Szymborski: I usually go into forums with my real name.

2:54	Dan Szymborski: Because people who don’t and have a public presence have a tendency to say embarrassing things under false names that are inevitably outed

2:54	Chuncey Wiggins: What would Soroka have to do to win the NL ROY?

2:54	Dan Szymborski: Well, be better than Tatis/Alonso

2:54	Matt: Without zoning laws, then the infield would be in the outfield, Dan.

2:54	Dan Szymborski: Zoning laws will kills the shift

2:55	LFC Mike: Joe West, Angel Hernandez, Alcides Escobar and the local Sky Line Chili manager knock on your front door: Finish the joke_____________________________

2:55	Dan Szymborski: Like any of them could follow a map

2:55	Trades: Don’t think i ever saw this – what team’s projections changed the most due to trades? Biggest changes in playoff odds, World Series odds?

2:55	Dan Szymborski: I didn’t do that approach simply because it was mostly a bunch of relievers that were exchanged.

2:55	Dan Szymborski: Mets went up the most though

2:55	Chris: If quizzed, how many big league players would be able to provide a simple explanation of xFIP?

2:56	Dan Szymborski: a dozen maybe?

2:56	HappyFunBall: At some point during the offseason, FG should have a chat with NO BASEBALL. Only beer, BBQ, sandwich definitions and the like. The point? To bring back the alums who are probably not allowed to talk baseball in a public forum.

2:56	Hittsrays: Going back to school in 6 days. I’m 39. It’s terrifying.

2:56	Flyer: Wait- Dayton, OH? I graduated from UD and didn’t know you lived in the area!

2:56	Dan Szymborski: Mom moved out here some years ago and she’s getting older and has some physical mobility issues, so I moved out here too

2:56	Dees: LIBOR is going away anyway! SOFR is the new benchmark rate soon!

2:56	Dbo: I think you should have a cat World Series during the actual world series similar to how the puppy bowl is during the super bowl

2:56	Dan Szymborski: I don’t have enough cats to make that work.

2:57	Fang Raphs: Folks, it’s just TWTW, not the TWTW. That’s like saying ATM machine

2:57

EndlessBacklash: Is projecting Bryce Harper becoming a fool’s errand? Since his MVP season, he’s been like 2008/2009/2011 Carlos Pena with the bat and many were expecting much more. Throw in the fact that his K-rate has been steadily going UP for awhile as he goes into his prime seems concerning, especially since he debuted and thrived so young. Any insight or is it just a shoulder shrug?

2:57	Dan Szymborski: Well, players are volatile. We’ll do OK in the aggregate

2:57	Dbo: Dan, I think we can settle “is a grilled cheese a sandwich” debate by setting a hard viscosity rule for the cheese!

2:58	Sabermetric Steve: Sanchez 7ip 2 h 1 bb tnight just watch

2:58	Dan Szymborski: It’s Greinke night, no?

2:59	Dale Gribble: What’s your favorite place that you’ve been to that didn’t have good food?

2:59	Dan Szymborski: Scotland

2:59	Mike: Please acknowledge that bunting is dumb and wastes at bats (or explain why it isn’t dumb, I guess)

2:59	Dan Szymborski: In a lot of instances, it is dumb

3:00	Dan Szymborski: But here’s the thing – the threat of a bunt is useful. And it doesn’t take a high bunt-for-hit success rate to change the whole break-even points drastically

3:01	Chuncey Wiggins: I guess my question, should be how far ahead are Alonso/Tatis in your estimation than Soroka?

3:01	Dan Szymborski: Not drastically

3:01	Todd: The Pirates need to cut ties with Neal Huntington, right? It just feels like the franchise is a laughingstock amongst the industry

3:01	Dan Szymborski: I think they need to cut ties with their ownership

3:01	Joe: Dan, how do you propose to defeat 30-50 hogs when they inevitably invade our baseball diamonds?

3:01	Dan Szymborski: Slow cooking over wood

3:02	CamdenWarehouse: Especially that fourth of July bunting everyone uses

3:02	Chuncey Wiggins: What’s your favorite bad place that had good food?

3:02	Dan Szymborski: York PA used to have an unbelievably good Thai place

3:02

AAAA guys: If I were another team, I might never trade Cashman a post-hype mid-20s hitter again. Why is the team good at this very specific thing and why aren’t other teams? I expect this skill to fail them when possibly playing Houston, but far stranger things have happened than a team getting hot for a week at the right time.

3:03	Dan Szymborski: I’m still laughing at the Mets not wanting to trade with the Astros because the Astros might fix someone they trade to them

3:03	Chat Mapman: You could also be Bae’s Theorem…I’ll show myself out

3:03	splendiferous__finch: why did the giants think they could make the playoffs with tyler beede and shaun anderson in the rotation

3:03	Dan Szymborski: Because you don’t actually have to be really good to be in the NL playoff race this year

3:04	Dan Szymborski: Until the Pirates started collapsing, the qualifier for “Are you an NL WC contender?” was basically “Are you not the Marlins?”

3:04	NotGraphs Revivalist: Sup Dan, I’m the rando that tweeted at you regarding Mike Tauchman outperforming the entire Rockies OF

3:05	Dan Szymborski: You know if Mike Tauchman was a Batman villain, he’d be obsessed with clocks and time and call himself Tick Tock

3:05	Dan Szymborski: It’s amazing how Batman villains like to base their villain entities around parts of their name.

3:05	Dan Szymborski: WTF does Szymborski become?

3:05	CamdenWarehouse: Galileo ate the sun, not a Dragon. You’re late getting him dinner

3:05	Guest: marcus* please dont pick my answer

3:06	Oddball Herrera: I chat through stuff at work all the time. It only gets a little hairy when I am doing particularly delicate surgeries but I manage.

3:06	Dan Szymborski: Somehow, my Tuesday chats are weirder than my Monday ones!

3:06	Dan Szymborski: OK on that note, it’s time to depart for another six days.

3:06	Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone!

BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG