Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 1/28/15

Dave Cameron: It’s a Wednesday, so we’re chatting. Because the wife is at the dentist, leaving me with both child and dog, there’s a chance we’ll start a little late today; I don’t know how well I’ll be able to work and care for two attention craving beings at the same time.

Dave Cameron: Alright, Mom’s home just in time for the kid to start screaming, so let’s talk some baseball while I ignore it.

Comment From mtsw
Any good reason to think Travis Snider is a better options for the Orioles outfield than De Aza or Lough? Does he make more sense as half a DH platoon with Delmon Young?

Dave Cameron: Why is it either/or? They didn’t DFA De Aza or Lough. Having three useful outfielders is better than having two.

Comment From David
Casey Janssen can’t replace Clippard because almost nobody can, but do you expect a rebound from him next year?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, he seems like a decent bounce back candidate. Probably more of a decent arm than a relief ace, but he could be a nice little addition.

Comment From Mike
Who do you like more, Cole or Stroman?

Dave Cameron: Stroman, mostly because of Cole’s arm problems.

Comment From Kris
O/U on 4.3 wins for Seager

Dave Cameron: Under.

Comment From _David_
If the Mariners wanted Endy, why not Ichiro?

Dave Cameron: Endy took a minor league deal, while Ichiro got a few million.

Comment From Jordan
Soon you’ll have two babies, two dogs and no idea how it all works, and you’ll be a daddy pro. That aside, Brad MIller’s ZIPS projects him to be league average. Was last season just bad, did he regress, does Seattle just mess with young hitters?

Dave Cameron: ZIPS actually projects him to be an above average player, as his +2.3 WAR is in just 550 PA. Steamer thinks he’s a +3 WAR SS, so this isn’t just ZIPS being crazy. Miller’s good. People will eventually come around on this.

Comment From _David_
What would MLB do if the Yankees suddenly decided to run $400M payrolls?

Dave Cameron: I’m sure the Steinbrenners would get a long lecture.

Comment From ACinDC
Why is a 6 man rotation such a bad idea

Dave Cameron: Taking innings from your best pitcher to give them to your worst is generally a losing strategy.

Comment From _David_
What would a strike zone robot system look like? Could it be done with the agreement of the umpires’ union? Maybe they could be told what to call each pitch and stand there like normal and do everything else…How much of the resistance would be pride related?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think we’ll ever have a strike zone based completely on technology, but I could maybe see a future where a certain percentage of pitches were regulated as balls/strikes based on recorded location. So maybe the umpire wears a device that communicates to him in some way whether a pitch is absolutely a ball or strike with no real chance that the system is wrong, so he simply calls what the machine calls. On pitches where the location is within the machine’s margin of error, the umpire gets to make the call.

Dave Cameron: Something like that.

Comment From Hello
Don’t you work and care for Sullivan & Kiley like every day?

Dave Cameron: We hired nannies for them.

Comment From Brogan Morrison
Thoughts on Ms Zips projection? A little less good than Steamer’s, no?

Dave Cameron: ZIPS hates their pitching, which is more in line with my feelings on most of those guys. The lack of depth around the roster is a legitimate problem.

Comment From Teddy
Do you think it’s a good idea for the nats to stand pat with their current team (save for a few bullpen arms) and not trade desmond or a pitcher due to trade offers being underwhelming and “going for it” and settling for compensation picks (probably 4 of them) or should they look to trade 1 of their soon to be free agents.

Dave Cameron: I’d imagine that if there was a deal worth taking for one of those guys, they’d be gone by now. I think they keep those guys and make a run.

Comment From Nick
Do projection systems like Steamer and Zips always project players’ “true talent” stats? Do they ever project a hitter to have a crazy lucky BABIP year, for instance?

Dave Cameron: Projection systems forecast the mean result of a series of outcomes. So, yes, they do forecast that a player can have a crazy lucky BABIP, but that only accounts for ~5% of the projection, and you don’t see that in the weighted average forecast.

Comment From mtsw
Doesn’t the failure of professional indoor soccer and arena football, two sports explicitly designed to be faster-paced and higher-scoring variants on other sports, demonstrate that marketing dogma that says fans prefer faster-paced, higher scoring contests is false? The NFL owns America and games take 3.5 hours and feature tons of inaction. Do we have any real data that shows fans prefer high-scoring, fast-paced sports other than hazy stereotypes about “the MTV generation” and kids’-these-days’ lack of attention span?

Dave Cameron: The NFL has 16 games per season. If it was a daily commitment, I don’t think people would be okay with 3.5 hour games there either.

Comment From Amblin
Will pitch framing still matter as much if MLB has the umpires shrink the strike zone in the quest for more offense?

Dave Cameron: I think MLB will work to minimize the effect of pitch framers to some extent, but human umpires are imperfect and will always be somewhat prone to manipulation.

Comment From J6takish
Players have agents but who negotiates on behalf of teams? Does the GM do it personally?

Dave Cameron: Depends on the player. A lot of times, AGMs handle lower level types. For the elite FAs, it is sometimes the owners doing it themselves.

Comment From Moosh
Where can I go to get a list of all the new Cubans this year? Especially fantasy-wise.

Dave Cameron: Cuba’s birth certificate database?

Comment From MarinerDan
How high are you on taking relatively low-cost fliers on habitually injured players? I am thinking guys like Josh Johnson and Brett Anderson as examples.

Dave Cameron: For a high revenue team that can afford alternatives if it doens’t work, it’s a good idea. For a low-revenue team that doesn’t have depth, less so.

Comment From MarinerDan
Why on earth is anyone talking about trading for Papelbon? Wouldn’t it make more sense just to sign someone like KRod?

Dave Cameron: Papelbon is better than KRod, and the Phillies have very little leverage here, so it’s worth exploring just how much money Amaro will eat to get rid of a closer he doesn’t need.

Comment From MarinerDan
How would you rank the AL West going into the season?

Dave Cameron: A’s/Mariners/Angels bunched together at the top, Astros/Rangers a ways behind.

Comment From Zack
I think a lot of people are overestimating the marlins this year. The only legitimate upgrade i think they made was Mat Latos.

Dave Cameron: Latos is probably not very good anymore either.

Comment From mike
dave, do you foresee a team seeking a competitive advantage via improved living/working conditions for its minor league players? eg housing better nutrition etc, even wages. is some team already doing this?

Dave Cameron: I think this will probably have to come at the league level. There isn’t a clear cause-and-effect that could be shown to ownership to get them to significantly increase spending in most cases.

Comment From Nevets
What’s the best lunch one can have for under $2?

Dave Cameron: Do you have access to a kitchen and pantry? Because you can make a delicious sandwich yourself for $2. If you have to buy it from a restaurant or grocery store, you’re probably screwed.

Comment From Mike P.
How much money (out of the $26 M) would the Phillies have to eat on Pap to get a prospect worth a darn? Not talking a top guy – just someone who has a decent chance to make it to the majors and be somewhat serviceable.

Dave Cameron: $20M, maybe.

Dave Cameron: At least $15M.

Comment From Biggy
Am I wrong to think the Orioles are better this year than last? Davis bounce back, Machado and Weiters back, full year of Gausman…..looks better to me than the Sox

Dave Cameron: You’re allowed to think whatever you’d like. I think reality will disappoint you.

Comment From Spencer
Which MLB team do you think will take the longest to make the playoffs going forward from today (i.e., is set up worst long-term)?

Dave Cameron: Maybe the Twins.

Comment From Joe
How come a team hasn’t tried a strategy of limiting starters to 3 innings and using relievers close to 3 innings per each each as well? My thought is almost like a 3-man rotation and a bullpen that has the occasional specialist, but relies more on guys that can get through a lineup once before getting dinged.

Dave Cameron: it’d be very difficult to find enough pitchers to go along with that.

Comment From steveV
Better scenario for a team like the Cubs, sign Moncada for say $50+$50M tax or sign 6 of the top 15 International prospects for say $12 M + $12 M tax?

Dave Cameron: For a team that has money to burn, probably Moncada.

Comment From Andrew Lambo
If the Yankees ran with a $400 Million payroll, MLB wouldn’t blink. When the Pirates decided to spend like 10 million on the draft though, NEXT YEAR RULE CHANGE! MLB loves big market teams, they only make changes when the small markets find advantages…

Dave Cameron: 10 years ago, the Yankees payroll was consistently 3-4 standard deviations from the league average. Now, it’s roughly 2.

Dave Cameron: If you think that’s a coincidence, well, okay.

Comment From Owen
How would one calculate the Nat’s payroll as it relates to the luxury tax threshold? Specifically, how is Scherzer’s contract accounted for? 7 yrs at $30M or 14 yrs at $15M?

Dave Cameron: They use a present value calculation, which I think put it at around $26M per year.

Dave Cameron: So 7 at $26M.

Comment From greg
Aroldis Chapman will be 27 next month. How long can elite velocity last, and should the Reds (or any other team) be extremely wary of the kind of contract he’s likely going to be asking for in either an extension this year, or as a FA down the line?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think anyone knows how long a guy can pitch throwing as hard as Chapman does. We don’t have any precedence for this.

Comment From Brogan Morrison
As an analytically minded Seattle-native, please share your thoughts on Dick’s Drive-In.

Dave Cameron: Only went once as a teenager — we lived in the suburbs and parents didn’t take us downtown much — and wasn’t that impressed. But then I also think In-N-Out is the most overrated food in the country so…

Comment From Nevets
Maybe Microsoft’s HoloLens could lead to some type of headset where umpires can see a virtual strike zone that allows them to see if the ball crosses the zone?

Dave Cameron: Possible. I would think the biggest improvement might be made from moving them out from staring right over the catcher’s shoulder, however. If technology could help them get a better angle on the plate, that might be a more realistic option.

Comment From Jobu-Cerranos Locker
Personal thoughts on Javier Baez? Zips likes him a lot more than Steamer. Another site projects him even better than Zips. Just curious what you think?

Dave Cameron: My guess is he’s more Tony Batista than Alfonso Soriano, but both are possible.

Comment From AJ
Any news on the new hire?

Dave Cameron: We’re still in the process. Received so many good applications that we’re trying to be thorough.

Comment From Oscar
On the podcast you mentioned players who do all facets of the game well are not as highly ranked by scouts as those who have one amazing tool, Is that because of scouts deeply held belies or is there something more to it?

Dave Cameron: It isn’t just scouts. Specialists are easier to identify and are valued more highly by just about everyone.

Dave Cameron: If you can look at one guy doing one thing and notice that it’s at the top of the range, you’re more likely to remember him than if he’s just middle of the pack. This is why we all remember Joel Zumaya but probably can’t name more than a dozen better relievers from five years ago.

Comment From BassmanUW
The NFL has also successfully turned football Sundays into a social gathering type of event and generally have no meaningful television competition. That’s a little harder to achieve on a random Tuesday night, especially since at least cable networks no longer cede the summer entirely to reruns.

Dave Cameron: Yep. The NFL basically created their own timeslot. MLB can’t do this.

Comment From steveV
In order to save a IP’s for a young pitcher why don’t we see more 2 starters in one. Example, young starter A goes 5 innings (75 pitches) and young starter B goes 4 (60 pitches). I know it takes a roster spot but you would be saving your bullpen, essentially every 5th day they get a day off. And the young starters get a low pitch count.

Dave Cameron: It’s called a Tandem Starter system, and a lot of teams use it in the low minors. Pitchers hate it, though, and they all push back against it the closer they get to the big leagues.

Comment From Seattle slough
How about a system similar to tennis where a batter or pitcher/catcher combo can challenge one pitch per at bat. In tennis, the screen shows the result in about 5 seconds, so it wouldn’t have to take a long time. The technology on tv is similarly quick on the strike zone.

Dave Cameron: I hate challenge-based replay and would be against any expansion of it.

Comment From Cal
Not very exciting projections for Walker, Paxton and Happ this morning. Who out of that group do you see providing the most value?

Dave Cameron: Probably Happ, but lots of people like Paxton more than I do.

Comment From dom
interesting on your last audio re team revenues and payroll break even points. I’ve long been of the opinion as a Yankee fan that the Yankees should be willing to operate at a deficit given the enormous capital gains their franchise and brand makes every year. Is it a cash flow problem that prevents teams from doing stuff like this?

Dave Cameron: If they started using all their revenue advantages to dominate the sport, MLB would take away some of their revenue advantages.

Dave Cameron: So there’s a disincentive in place to be the financial bully.

Comment From Red Foreman
I am a high school/college player projected to be the 1st or 2nd pick in the upcoming draft but I don’t want to sign for a measly $6 or $7 million, I want a Tomas/Moncada type contact. What is the best way to do that? Sign a one year professional deal in Japan and then come back as a free agent the next year?

Dave Cameron: There’s no system in place that will allow you to do so.

Comment From Nick
Do you think the saturation of the market with quality pitchers next winter brings down the price of guys like Zimmermann or Cueto? Or will it more affect the second-tier guys like Fister?

Dave Cameron: Keep in mind that when there are great FAs, that means that there’s a team that now has to replace a great player. Having a player hit the open market ups both the supply and the demand by one, in most cases.

Comment From "Why is a 6 man rotation such a bad idea" – From The Book, with a six man roation you do take away IP from your better pitchers and give them to worse pitchers, but overwall with the extra rest, the pitchers would be expected to perform better.
Given Philly’s likely outcomes for the next couple of years and big revenue, wouldn’t they be best paying all or nearly all of Howard, Utley, Lee, Papelbon and Ruiz’s contracts to maximize possible returns? Eating little salary wouldn’t net them a whole lot of minor league talent for that whole group. But eating most of it, maybe results in a pretty big overhaul of the minor league system.

Dave Cameron: Yep. It’s probably not so easy to get ownership to bankroll a $150 million payroll for a terrible team, though.

Comment From DTSS
What’s your ballpark estimate of the chances of the Nats not winning the NL East next year?

Dave Cameron: Probably ~25%, something like that.

Comment From dom
why do people talk about the “length” of games being a problem when quite clearly it is the pace that is the issue

Dave Cameron: It’s both.

Dave Cameron: Pace is a bigger issue, but length is an issue too.

Comment From John
Islands in Wilmington, NC has $1 tacos, every day for lunch. So you could get 2 tacos for $2… and it comes with chips… drink is extra though

Dave Cameron: So now he just needs to get himself to Wilmington for $0.

Comment From Guest
When we talk about out predicting projection systems: Doesn’t it just talk about mass player prediction? If I gave you an half and hour to research every player, don’t you think you could out predict a simple projection by using data it simply doesn’t use.?

Dave Cameron: Nope. People suck at beating the projection systems. They try and fail every year.

Comment From John
given what the nats did with scherzer – any way a team could do a deferred payment plan on moncada? or is the penalty up front, so it doesnt matter the payout?

Dave Cameron: The tax has to be paid within a month of the signing. They can spread out the payments to Moncada over three years, but the tax is due almost immediately.

Comment From Jose
Why do we focus more on innings pitched than pitches pitched when talking about season workload?

Dave Cameron: We have innings pitched data for 100+ years, and pitches pitched data for about 20.

Comment From STiVo
Do you think Stanton will earn (through linear dollar-per-WAR calculation) the value of his contract?

Dave Cameron: Yeah.

Comment From Jose
Randy Johnson was hitting 92 at his 40-something season, wasnt he? Chapman’s floor could be like 94, still good if he keeps the slider.

Dave Cameron: Johnson wasn’t throwing 105 in his prime.

Dave Cameron: He’s maybe the best comparison we have, but that doesn’t make him a great one.

Comment From Seymour
Twins? Huh? Top 5 farm system in baseball taking the longest to get to playoffs? Strange answer.

Dave Cameron: Prospects fail at a very high rate. Without a front office that can succeed at building a roster around the few that don’t fail, or a really high payroll to allow them to just spend their way back into contention, it’s going to be a while for the Twins.

Comment From Prich
If an organization decided to go with a 4-man rotation as their organizational philosophy, would it be reasonable to assume it would take 5 years to implement? Basically, you start with the 2015 draft class, implement it at all levels of your organization, and hope to have it be the norm by 2020? If it would take that long, I see why no one would do it…

Dave Cameron: And then you hope to sign every pitcher you developed to a lifetime contract?

Dave Cameron: The problem with wildly different pitcher usage from one organization is it takes away your ability to import pitchers from other organizations when needed.

Comment From Jordan
Why did Kenny Lofton get stiffed on the HOF ballot?

Dave Cameron: Voters like HR/RBIs more than R/SBs.

Comment From Andy5
If MLB really wants to market their product better and start reaching a wider fan base, they should start by eliminating the stupid blackout rule. My gosh this seems so obvious. Am I missing something here?

Dave Cameron: The blackout rule is the reason that TV networks are giving them billions of dollars.

Comment From Ed
Couldn’t we just evaluate umpires based on their accuracy over the season versus a computerized strike zone? The least accurate ones would be replaced the following season by a new crop of more accurate minor league umps. Thereby giving them an incentive to call the correct zone.

Dave Cameron: MLB is using PITCHF/x to give umpires detailed feedback.

Comment From Guest
Are you a fan of the game of baseball? You seem to be taking each and every human aspect out of the game, which would make baseball unenjoyable. You seem more as a fan of mathematics and statistical analysis, using baseball as a base.

Dave Cameron: You seem to be a fan of judging the motivations and enjoyment of people you’ve never spent any time with.

Comment From mtsw
When did stats-savvy people go back from “hey maybe the 2014 Orioles are for real and we were wrong to write them off” to “the 2015 Orioles won’t be good because the 2014 team’s success was variance and smoke and mirrors?” Everyone is suddenly back to anointing the Red Sox kings of the East despite the last-place finish last season..

Dave Cameron: The Red Sox have a lot more talent than the Orioles. Using prior year standings as the basis for your projections is silly.

Comment From dom
how would you explain xFIP in 10 seconds to someone who doesn’t know advanced stats

Dave Cameron: “It’s a metric that judges a pitcher based on his walks, strikeouts, and groundballs.”

Comment From Catoblepas
Is there any precedent for a team defaulting? When you talk about the Moncada tax being due almost immediately; what if a team just couldn’t or didn’t produce the money on time?

Dave Cameron: I’d imagine MLB would void the contract.

Comment From Mike C
The ‘Moncada Tax Money’ goes where and is spent on what?

Dave Cameron: To a slush fund managed by the commissioner’s office. No one really knows what will happen with it because it wasn’t designed to have large deposits.

Comment From Guest
Why do people think these projection systems don’t use a boatload of metrics, and engage in comparative work that it would take ages for any single person to do?

Dave Cameron: Because they see conclusions they disagree with and prefer to think the systems are poorly designed, justifying their preconceived ideas.

Comment From Guestington
What are your thoughts on the idea of effective velocity, in particular the work done on pitch tunnelling?

Dave Cameron: It’s interesting. I don’t think I buy it, though.

Comment From Pono McPapi
Why is every projection system predicting Scherzer to have fewer strikeouts this season when he’s increased that number each of the last 3 years and is moving to the NL?

Dave Cameron: Regression to the mean.

Comment From S
If you started working in a completely baseball unrelated field tomorrow, how close would you still follow the sport?

Dave Cameron: Less so than I do now, but I’ll always watch a lot of baseball.

Comment From Guest
I do not see the Red Sox as a good team… What makes them 20 wins better than last season? Sandoval is a slightly above avg 3rd baseman, and Hanley has no position and is often hurt.

Dave Cameron: Performance isn’t static from one year to the next.

Comment From Seymour
But “Projection Systems” make miserable mistakes every year. Why deny that fact?

Dave Cameron: They make fewer mistakes than any other alternative.

Comment From JayT
Why are all the West Coast ballparks so pitcher friendly? Is it just the dimensions, or is it something about the weather?

Dave Cameron: It’s the weather. The ball just doesn’t carry on the west coast like it does on the east coast.

Comment From Shameless Shoe horn
“Dave Cameron: Performance isn’t static from one year to the next.” Yet we use past performance as the main tool to predict future performance. Honestly, I do not see the Red Sox improving 20 games, and unless I hear an answer as to why they should improve 20 games, I will keep writing them off

Dave Cameron: We use multiple years of past performances, not one year of past performance. Two years ago, the Red Sox won the World Series. The idea that 2014 is super important and 2013 is useless is just a very weird opinion.

Dave Cameron: Okay, off to do some more work and try to get a shower before the wife, baby, and/or dog need me again.