Eric Longenhagen Chat: 3/19/2021

Eric A Longenhagen: Morning, everyone. Hope everyone is well and looking forward to a weekend of two- and three-screening hoops and baseball. Let’s do this thing…

Greg: I hate to be that annoying guy, but I will be anyway — any timeframe on the Braves prospect list?

Eric A Longenhagen: Monday or Tuesday

Larry: Anything to the Michael Harris hype out of Atlanta’s camp?

Eric A Longenhagen: “Wouldn’t surprise me if he were (the Braves) top prospect a year from now.”

Gas throwers union: *MLb Draft question* Have you gotten a chance to look at Matt Mikulski or Jason Coules? And what’s your evaluation?

Eric A Longenhagen: Both these guys are at Fordham. Yeah, Mikulski is up to 97 from the left side, arm action is super short in one of those very concerted ways but he still doesn’t have great feel or release consistency, same goes for his secondary stuff. Strong kid with huge arm strength at a small school. An interesting sleeper/flier type. Coules is a good-framed CF with some pop. Very upright stance/swing, struggles to square fastballs. Again, kind of interesting, not some small school Day 1 guy or anything like that.

Carl: Has Garrett Mitchell’s strong ST impacted evaluations of him? And what level of the minors would you expect him to start at?

Eric A Longenhagen: No change for me. He looks the same: Speed, big strength/power, a swing that doesn’t produce in-game power.

El Jefe: Triston Beck was sitting 95 in instructs apparently and touching 97. Does that change your view on him at all?

Eric A Longenhagen: Well I saw him do that (I saw plenty of 4s and 5s but don’t think I have a 7 in my notebook) in the Fall so that helped inform where he is on the Giants list

Jeff: Jordan Wicks or Jared Shuster? How does he compare to Marco Gonzales coming out?

Eric A Longenhagen: The variance on Shuster is way bigger than Wicks. Shuster has better stuff than Wicks but a shorter performance track record.

Chris W.: Have you gotten a chance to see trammell yet this spring? Any thoughts on how hes looked? It seems like he’s locked up the starting left field job for the mariners.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s going to get paved by velo at the top of the zone. If he can start to catch that high fastball consistently then my more recent thought on him will have been wrong.

My boy Blue: What odds do you give Witt Jr breaking camp and what kind of upside can we hope for if he does?

Eric A Longenhagen: Someone told KG they think it’s better than 50/50 he breaks with the team. I think some elements of his approach would be exploited by big league pitching after a few weeks and that he’d start to struggle, but I also think he’s so talented that he’d do some stuff well (some highlight reel plays at 2B, run into a bunch of doubles and homers) if they pushed him. Might be a .280-.290 OBP type all year though, and that’s not great for a) Bobby’s dev b) KC long term, c) KC trying to compete this yearif I’m right about that.

Arlington: In your recent podcast with Kevin Goldstein, you alluded to a shift in the direction of the Rangers’ rebuild (example was a minor league deal for Thomas Saggese, iirc), could you elaborate?

Eric A Longenhagen: Moving from heavy emphasis on frame/tools to performance in pro scouting, kinda going off the board on the amateur side, overall taking a quantity-driven approach to the rebuild. I’ll go more in-depth on Rangers list System Overview, but that’s a broad strokes of it.

Phillip Jeffries: Eric, if all things work out for Corbin Carroll does he have the profile of a future fantasy stud or a better real-life guy? Do you see him stealing a lot of bases at the major league level, potentially getting a ton of hits and runs with a great average (if he “hits” as a prospect)?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t play fantasy and so am terrible at answering questions like this. I will say that I find it odd that fantasy baseball has stayed the same even though actual baseball has changed. If I were playing fantasy I’d want whatever defines a good actual baseball player and what defines a good fantasy player to be as close to one another as possible and instead those two have grown farther apart, and that’s kind of a problem when most of my readers seem to care about fantasy while I write about actual stuff.

Jeff: How do we go about bringing down the NCAA cartel?.

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t know, it’s so ingrained in the culture at this point. Pro sports sees it as a totally free dev system for players and won’t be any kind of help. My goal in this little slice of the world where I have actual expertise is to get them to expand scholarships and hopefully try to help combat the socioeconomic divide worsened by travel ball.

Jeremy Bowers: How would you rank the general quality of this year’s college SP to the 2022 or 2023 class? Also, looks like many high-tier HS arms and bats in this class and very few college bats.

Eric A Longenhagen: You’ve gotta keep in mind the context: There was no sophomore year for college hitters to perform and establish themselves, that’s happening now. There will be good college hitters who we’re still only just learning about now as conference play starts. I’d say there are four top 10 pick kind of college arms right now, maybe we’re a little thinner on mid- late-1st round types, but the middle of the draft has more depth than any year because of 2020 draft only being 5 rounds.

Old Prospector: What are your thoughts on Adrian Houser? Good 2019, rough 2020. I saw at least one breakout prediction in 2021. Where are you on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s a perfectly fine 4/5 starter.

clh: Hi Eric…Which Chris Paddack do we see in 2021 – the 2019 borderline #1 version or the 2020 version that resembled a #4/5 starter? Has he developed at least a passable 3rd pitch yet?

Eric A Longenhagen: The answer will probably be somewhere in between. His curveball is just always going to be below avg, imo. He can still be good that way, I think.

Phillip Jeffries: Would you guess at this early stage that if either Leiter or Rocker are sitting there at #3 that Detroit would be all over them? Are those two likely holding onto the top spots or are things still plenty fluid in mid-March for this draft’s upper echelon?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think either of those guys at pick 3 would be great. No, the very top of the draft hasn’t solidified yet. Remember the $ component of this, too. We won’t know about that stuff until like the day before the draft, sometimes it’s kept a secret entirely (Royce Lewis, Correa)

Jacob: Is Nick Pratto a prospect again?  Also, how much weight to you put on ST performances when evaluating prospects?  I assume most of what you are looking for is mechanical changes and other physical things, not performance.

Eric A Longenhagen: Have seen three Pratto games in person and several more on TV. Haven’t compared this swing to past ones but he seems really short to the ball right now and well-suited for squaring up fastballs at the letters, which is very good in today’s game. You nailed what it is I care about more than stats in this short window vs diluted pitching. j

chet: longterm in order – Nate Pearson, Casey Mize, Max Meyer, Matt Manning.?

Eric A Longenhagen: 2021 Top 100 Prospects | FanGraphs Baseball

Tigers Fan: What do you think of CJ Abrams spring?  Should SD trade him to a team that needs a SS?

Eric A Longenhagen: Looks great. No, they shouldn’t.

Wes: Per your report, we know Taylor Walls can play SS from the defensive perspective. What do you see his offensive impact being? Do you see him needing to leave Tampa to really get a shot?

Eric A Longenhagen: Strong OBP, very little power. Think he’s the one who plays SS tomorrow if Adames gets dealt or hurt.

Profile: Jordyn Adams got big. Slight hand adjustment at setup. Are we looking at a guy who finishes the year as a top 10 guy? What’s his comp even though we all hate comps we need them.

Eric A Longenhagen: Still doesn’t have the feel/instincts to make that kind of quantum leap. Has that kind of talent, though.

Curtis: At what point is solid depth in your farm system without a lot of highly-rated prospects (60+?) more beneficial than several high end guys but not a lot after that?  Does it depend on the state of the major league roster?  Other factors?  Is there a place where the lines intersect?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think depth means more when you actually have good player dev.

Swinging Friar: Did you catch Espinoza back on the mound after 4 years off and 2 TJs?

Eric A Longenhagen: 93-95, one curveball at 78, was very amped up and not locating (which is fine right now)

Charley: For my 10 team roto dynasty League., I need OF help. Hunter Dozier has the OF eligibility. Would u recommend dropping leody teveras for him if I need the OF help? My concern is leody might not make opening roster, and even if he does, it’s not guarantee he hits lead off, or steal bags (more random), and also with deadening of the ball, I’m concerned he won’t his as much hr (10+). What’s your take on teveras? I see he’s outside of top 100 for your prospect list. You think  His type of player is easily replaceable (I.e jarran Duran)

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Leody almost certainly has more real world impact than fantasy because so much of it is defense. Maybe you can try to move Leody + another piece for one CF upgrade then pick up your boy Doz.

Hambo: This is perhaps a silly question, but with players in relatively loose-fitting, full-body uniforms I kind of have trouble seeing which are in the best physical shape. You seem to have a better beat on it. Is that from seeing guys out of uniform, or sourcing, or have you just learned what to look for? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a lot of seeing them pre-game in compression shirts rather than their billowy uniform. And also the pants, the baseball pants don’t lie.

Guest: What exactly is bat speed? If it’s literally the speed of the bat, then isn’t it simply identical to raw power? Or is it more like bat quickness, time to get the bat from decision point to contact point?

Eric A Longenhagen: It can be visually deceiving because a longer path might look slower to your eye but actually be moving faster. So the end of the bat is moving faster than the handle. Shorter-levered players might be quicker through the zone but not generating as much bat speed as longer levered guys whose swing are longer and appear slower to your eye.

Eric A Longenhagen: You could calculate bat speed with the high speed video (you know the frame rate of the camera (FPS) and the distance of the plate) but I usually end up interpolating bat speed based on rotation….

Eric A Longenhagen: so like, if you look at Torkelson’s first swing in this video:

Eric A Longenhagen:

Eric A Longenhagen: and note where his bat ends up at the end of his backswing, that’s super crazy ability to rotate. I couldn’t do that slowly if I tried, let alone with that kind of force.

Eric A Longenhagen: Here’s another guy who blows me away with the rotational velocity of his body. Luis Matos, CF, San Francisco Giants – YouTube

Eric A Longenhagen: go to the 1:50 mark

Eric A Longenhagen: his freaking barrel touches the ground behind him, that’s amazing

GoBears!: What college baseball do you recommend this weekend?

Eric A Longenhagen: Florida/Texas A&M. Can’t go wrong with any series opening SEC play.

blah: lots of people have spoken about Trammell’s improvement this Spring, but have you looked at Justin Dunn? Results look just as bad, but does the new stuff (similar to Kikuchi last year) change your evaluation of him as a starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nope, watched his start last night. Chucking heat past guys early, fell off late. Seems like a reliever to me. But the way he looks now is definitely better than last year. Body looks way better. Looks more like a 40 FV relief piece now than an up/down guy.

Mucho: Do you think Frelick gets drafted as an outfielder, infielder, or utility guy?

Eric A Longenhagen: CF

Eric A Longenhagen: but I really wanna see a 2B try

David: When projecting body, do you look at frame and shoulders? Do you tick up players that come to camp more “built” than the previous year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, broad shoulders, flat upper back, tapering at the waist, underlying musculature.

Mac: Rocker or Leiter?

Eric A Longenhagen: 2021 Draft Prospects | THE BOARD | FanGraphs

Eric A Longenhagen: Obvs this is subject to change.

Eric A Longenhagen: Rocker’s slider just has exactly what I’m looking for in a breaking pitch now.

Lazarus: You and KG highlighted Charlis Aquino as a guy who might show up having filled out and showing more power. Have you heard anything this spring, or has he yet to join the team?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think he’s in camp yet, he’s a low-level minor leaguer.

StudStats: Who was the first player you scouted as amateur and had one of those “this guy is going to play in the big leagues” moments? We’re you right?

Eric A Longenhagen: Matt Bowman. Yes.

Eric the Red: Does Tony Santillan have a chance to get back the prospect status he had a few years ago? What’s his likely outcome?

Eric A Longenhagen: Doubtful. Sitting 97 this spring but still getting crushed. One of those kinds of fastballs that just doesn’t play at its velocity. Think he’s a single-inning reliever in the end.

DJ: Do you think Aaron Ashby is more likely to develop into a starter or into a bullpen role for the Brewers? Or maybe a hybrid of a long reliever and spot starter type like Brent Suter and Freddy Peralta have been?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think you nailed it, I’d use him just like Hader.

Falco: Have you ever considered the possibility of yourself being biased against particular teams during prospect evaluation (for whatever reason, whether its due to teams being better at evaluating/developing prospects, or being wrong historically on certain teams). However as regimes and philosophies change, perhaps there is a lag in your evaluation?  This is my long way of saying that I do not understand the bottom 10 evaluation of the Jays system.

Eric A Longenhagen: Of course, that’s why the farm system rankings are done the way they are, to do the best I can to eliminate that bias.

Eric A Longenhagen: my gut says that’s a meh system, Craig’s research may not.

Eric A Longenhagen: Farm System Rankings Are Now on THE BOARD! | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: this presents a more depth-friendly POV What is the Value of a Prospect? An Updated Methodology – Driveline Baseball

Hinkie: Eric … your thoughts on two NJ HSP’s:  Chase Petty & Anthony Solometo.  First rounders?

Eric A Longenhagen: No

Oliver: You seemed a little bullish on Richard Palacios, ranking him 25th before 2020. This year, he fell off the list. Did he simply get swallowed whole by Cleveland’s middle infield depth?

Eric A Longenhagen: he’s on the list

Eric A Longenhagen: same FV as before, other guys in the system just actually played and were healthy. Palacios might be legit, he has all the skills I love, was just hurt for literally several years.

Buff Chick: Which 60 FV pitch repertoire do you like better Skubal or Patino?

Eric A Longenhagen: Skubal’s stuff is a little better, Patino is the better athlete whose long term strike throwing prognosis seems better to me

Mr 3000: Can Izaac Pacheco stay st SS?

Eric A Longenhagen: probably not

Kate: How worried should we be about Kjerstad’s heart issue?  Is this the same thing Eduardo Rodriguez had last year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Gosh I don’t know. That’s one of those where baseball stops and cardiology begins, so I should stfu about it. I hope he’s okay.

Bring Back Mookie: So, like, Bobby Dalbec is gonna be bad this year, right? This spring hype feels like some small sample nonsense

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think he’ll be bad but I don’t think he’s going to hit 40+ bombs or anything. I 45’d him and still think that’s right.

Dave C: Any recent updates on Mets prospect Robert Dominguez?  It’s almost impossible to find any tidbits on these low rookie guys without last years minor league season.

Eric A Longenhagen: Hopefully Mets list (with such an update) hits FG late next week

sj: Does the new stadium component and wanting exciting players at the big league level now to attract fans have any influence on Texas’ selection at 2 regarding college vs. prep?

Eric A Longenhagen: nah

DJ: With the possibility of an electronic strike zone along with rules promoting stolen base attempts on the horizon do you think it will have a significant impact on how catchers are evaluated?

Eric A Longenhagen: yes, huge huge implications.

Franklin: Where would Elijah Green rank on your MLB top 100 if he were in the Minors today

Eric A Longenhagen: about 80th

Tom: How high do you think Sal Frelick can go on draft boards? He’s small with limited raw, but it seems like everything else is excellent and plus hit types like him seem to have a way of exceeding their raw powe a lot of the time

Eric A Longenhagen: I think if we drafted tomorrow he’d be the first college bat off the board

Chamaco: Any changes to your evaluations of Ty France and Josh Rojas based on how they have looked this year in spring training?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hmmm, they’re probably on the 45/50 line now. Still worry France likes to swing too much. He’s like a 6% walk rate guy

Guest: I never understood the put-upon nature of the responses of some of the responses coming out of these chats. Asking if Carroll will be a proficient base-stealer seems like a pretty relevant question to this chat. Who cares if he is asking for fantasy or concerns over future lineup construction of his favorite team? Who cares if people ask “dumb” questions? Seems pretty great you get paid to do this for a living and even better that enough people value your opinion enough to read your work on such a subjective topic. Salud!

Eric A Longenhagen: Dude, I don’t know what tone you use to read my questions but it definitely doesn’t match the one I’m writing with.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve gotta put what I’m saying in the right context.

Kate: Have to gotten any looks at Brendan Rodgers in ST?  If so, do you think he still looks like the same guy you had as a highly ranked prospect or have the injuries knocked some of the tool grades down?

Eric A Longenhagen: Looks really good. The hamstring injury is kinda scary, he’s always had a tighter lower half and has had stuff like this before. He’s also a bit of a free-swinger buts the contact has been really loud.

Pete: Any idea why Morales hasn’t made an appearance this spring for the Phils?

Eric A Longenhagen: I actually do not, that’s a good question. You’d think a guy on the 40-man with that kind of stuff would get a look, especially considering the big club’s needs.

Rexy: Is Morejon stock on the rise? What FV would you give him now that he seems healthy and able to assume a starter role?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d still just 45+ him. Love the velo, but the fastball shape, command, and health history slide him a little for me.

Tom: Hi Eric, I love THE BOARD, but is there any way for you to put what state a HS is in? You’ve had it in past years and it was very helpful for those of us who aren’t as familiar with the scouting scene and where prospects are from

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, let me get on the horn with Sean because I do wanna fix whatever is preventing that (and the commitments) from populating, as well as make all that searchable.

Kate: Have you ever heard of another guy like Daulton Jefferies who apparently doesn’t grip any seems with any of his pitches?  Does that worry you at all or does he seem to make it work and it’s irrelevant?

Eric A Longenhagen: actually shot some high speed of Jefferies the other day, let’s take a look…

Eric A Longenhagen: (Send your energy to my upload speeds)

Eric A Longenhagen: So wow, he actually isn’t gripping the seams on his two-seamer…weird….I’m gonna take some more questions then post the clip here. I use streamable for this type of quick stuff so sorry if you get an ad.

elGuapo: Not sure if he graduated already. But how much do you read into Monte Harrison’s 60% contact rate at the ML level. I know he was a late to baseball type but at 25 is it over? Or is it feasible that approach improves enough to let the other tools play before it’s too late.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s possible, yes. He’s such a driven, competitive guy with obviously huge tools. I just wish they’d let him play everyday.

Matt: Not a question, but just wanted to point out you still have Ronaldo Hernandez on the Rays list. He was traded to the Red Sox last month.

Eric A Longenhagen: thanks, I will alert Meg. Ronaldo is on the Sox page on The Board, at least. 2021 Top Prospects | THE BOARD | FanGraphs

The Darkness: While you’re on the phone with Sean, get him to add college stats the board too! 🤣

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s an Appelman call. I’ve been bugging him!

Eric A Longenhagen:

Jeff: You live in Pennsylvania, no? Have ya seen the Bigfeet?

Eric A Longenhagen: I live in Arizona. Originally from Catasauqua, PA.

Eric A Longenhagen: here’s the Jefferies clip: C0215 (streamable.com)

Guest: You’re made commissioner for 1 day and get to change/add 1 rule that will not be changed for the next decade.  The specific goal you’ve been tasked with is:  bringing the average fan “back” to baseball.  What rule would you change/add?

Eric A Longenhagen: to on-field play? I really worry about playing god and the unintentional consequences thereof. I’m still a “no DH” guy. Forcing pitchers to have to do other stuff I think forces teams to roster more athletic guys, and often those guys are Mike Leake, Greinke, Stroman types who work fast with sink, field their position. It’s a way of backdooring into more athletic baseball, I think.

Jhon Torres: Hey Eric! Thank you for your work.Was I supposed to be on the Rockies’ list?

Eric A Longenhagen: This almost gave me a heart attack. I seriously checked.

Eric A Longenhagen: Really weird how his name leaked out even though it wasn’t true. How does that happen?

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay everyone, thanks for coming to the chat. I anticipate I’ll be back next Friday barring some vax/draft trip miracle. I see the light at the end of the tunnel and hope y’all do too. Which means I should shower. bye bye