Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 11/28

12:00
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning, everyone.

12:00
Roadhog: Is Franklin Barreto traded for an impact player?

12:01
Eric A Longenhagen: No idea. I don’t know why Oakland would trade a cost-controlled 21-year old with tools that big and who has already had success at Triple-A.

12:01
Paul R: Is McKay better suited as a pitcher or first basemen? If the latter, what kind of power numbers you see from him?

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: I preferred him as a pitcher but I can see why some scouts liked him at first base. He has effortless plus raw power and some scouts thought, if he focused on hitting, he’d be a 55 or 60 hitter, too. So that’s like .280 with 25 homers or so.

12:03
Mozeliak: Any sleeper prospects in cardinals minor who may get into next years top 100?

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Always hard for me to gauge what ‘sleeper’ means to whoever is asking the question. Andrew Knizner could be a future ‘Top 100 guy’ which, for me, means he’s likely to be an average regular or better. Wadye Ynfante is the deep sleeper for such a climb but that might take two years.

12:04
Tommy N.: chances Franchy Cordero becomes an above average major leaguer?

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: 20%? Has the tools for it, not a very instinctive player.

12:04
Austin: Breakout year incoming for Jesus Luzardo?

12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Yup. I’ll take 93-96 with command of two above average secondaries, even with a TJ already on the resume.

12:05
Ben: Is Francis Martes‘ future in relief?

12:06
Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve always thought so personally, but scouts I spoke with last year all thought I was underselling his athleticism. I’d give it some time yet.

12:06
Bearry: What AAA prospects have superstar potential but haven’t performed nearly up to par? Or because they have a hole in their game?  Someone like Cozens.

12:09
Eric A Longenhagen: ‘Superstar’ is a stretch for some of these guys but Brandon Dixon woudl absolutely be an everyday big leaguer if he could play defense anywhere other than 1B.  Same for Yadiel Rivera if he could hit at all.

12:09
Johnny: Hey Eric, where would you rank the Red Sox farm system? Do you see them using Chavis and/or Groome in a deal to acquire Jose Abreu? Realistically, what would a trade for him look like?

12:11
Eric A Longenhagen: It’s not great. Somewhere around 20th. Not sure what an Abreu trade might entail.I think you can make an argument that Chavis should just be the guy at 1B.

12:11
Bearry: Luke Voit has had a damn good minor league career. Think he can help a major league team when the Cardinals consolidate their depth?

12:12
Eric A Longenhagen: I know scouts that like him, but he’s limited to 1B. Jose Martinez might be, too.

12:13
Johnny: How interesting is Alexander Canario and how would you compare him to Sandro Fabian?

12:14
Eric A Longenhagen: He’s interesting. 17-year old who hit well in the DSL. More power projection than Fabian, both because his frame has more room than Fabian’s and because the swing is geared for more pop.

12:16
Bill: Safe to assume L. Urias has the best hit tool in the minors? Who would be the next 3-4 best hitters in your opinion?

12:17
Eric A Longenhagen: He’s definitely up there. Francisco Mejia, Profar, Verdugo..those are the names that came to mind off the top of my head

12:17
mike: Any up and coming yankees prospects top 100 material? Guzman, Estrada…

12:18
Eric A Longenhagen: I imagine some of the hard-throwing arms like Luis Medina, Frecier Perez, and Jorge Guzman will have an argument for that arbitrary-yet-incessantly-referenced title. Estrada I like, think he’s a low-end everyday big leaguer, but that’s a half grade short of the guys I write up for the 100

12:18
mike: At what point this year do we see Chance Adams and Justus Sheffield in the bronx?

12:18
Eric A Longenhagen: Not sure exactly when (injuries just kind of happen whenever) but I think you see both of them next year.

12:18
Pablo: Freddy Peralta: starter or reliever?

12:19
Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s a starter but that’s not a unanimous opinion. I think he’s more physical than his measurables suggest.

12:19
Ryan: What red flags do scouts see in Kyle Tucker’s swing? I’ve read both smooth and unorthodox. Can he be an elite hitter long term?

12:19
Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe there’s some length there? I think he’s going to be very good. Effort level in Fall League was low, but clearly very talented.

12:20
GPT: How much of an industry concern is there over Brady Singer’s mechanics and the stress he puts on his elbow?

12:22
Eric A Longenhagen: There’s some because it is a pretty violent arm action, but others think predicting injury based solely on mechanics is BS. Scherzer is a great example of that. I personally tend to be concerned about injury when a guy already has a history of it and if I got inconsistent reports from scouts about the quality of stuff or weird, extended periods of rest.

12:22
Mike from Tempe: Why are you not verified on Twitter, how do we know it’s the real you and not some clever parody?

12:24
Eric A Longenhagen: It’s me. I don’t even know how to get verified, to be honest. It’s just not something I’ve considered important. Maybe that’s stupid of me? https://twitter.com/longenhagen

12:24
Bryan: Did Austin Riley boost his prospect stock in the AFL?

12:24
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

12:24
sats: Hey Eric, Have you seen Zack Littell, and have your thoughts on him changed…upside? Is he better than a #3

12:25
Eric A Longenhagen: Still have him as a fringe prospect as I did when I wrote up all the trades mid-year: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/ranking-the-prospects-traded-during-dea…

12:25
Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe there’s more to the fastball than I’m giving him credit for.

12:25
Mitch: I know you have previously professed your love for Monte Harrison. Would you say he is a better prospect than Corey Ray at this point?

12:27
Eric A Longenhagen: Working the Brewers list right now and deciding what to do with Ray is pretty tough. If people can convince me there’s something simple that needs fixing, then no I’m still sticking with Ray.

12:27
Bryan: Will Juremi and Jurickson Profar ever play together on an MLB roster?

12:27
Eric A Longenhagen: I doubt it.

12:27
Sal: If you read through the comments in Hulet’s post on the CHW system yesterday the impression of L. Robert varies from overrated to best non-Ohtani prospect on the planet. Where do you stand?

12:29
Eric A Longenhagen: Internet commenters sure know a lot. He has huge showcase tools. Speed, raw power. We have very little idea about how he’s going to hit in games. He’s high risk, high reward. I have a 55 FV on him. Saw him last summer before he defected, but he’s remade his body since then and is a different guy.

12:29
Trevor: How many prospects out there with 80 grades on a tool?

12:29
Eric A Longenhagen: Lotta 80 speeds, 80 fastball, some 80 arms.

12:29
Capt’n Canada: I can’t help but compare Estevan Florial to Mike Cameron, both physically and skills wise. Do you agree with that comparison?

12:30
Eric A Longenhagen: Cameron’s glove >>>>>

12:30
Jock: Do you think Sean Murphy has vaulted into a Top 5 C prospect?

12:31
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, especially if you exclude the guys you don’t think are going to stick there. Like if you’re skeptical of Zack Collins or Caratini or move Mejia off of C and to 3B, it’s easy to fit Murphy in.

12:31
J: Do you know if there’s a public centralized list of all the Rule 5 eligible players?

12:32
Eric A Longenhagen: I do not, sorry. If anyone finds one please let me know. Team personnel are loath to give them up.

12:32
Capt’n Canada: What do you expect from a healthy Greg Bird next season (assuming a healthy 140 games)?

12:33
Eric A Longenhagen: .250/.340/.510 with like 25 dingers

12:33
Eric A Longenhagen: and meh defense at 1B

12:33
Reggie: Did Jo Adell suffer some kind of arm injury or has his arm always scouted so badly that it pushes down his profile?

12:34
Eric A Longenhagen: Has to be some kind of injury, right? Was 90-94 on the mound for me at Area Codes, I had a 6 on his outfield arm. Reports the following spring were that he had a 3 arm. He DH’d after he signed and then had a 3 arm again when I saw him during instructional league

12:34
Xolo: What’s your take on the Dodgers releasing Jose Fernandez? Is it related to the injury or something else?

12:34
Eric A Longenhagen: Not sure. I know they’ve had issues with that class’ makeup.

12:36
JT: Thoughts on Rule 5 eligible LHP Nestor Cortes? His numbers are really something, and he’s only 22.

12:39
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah they were good. Little lefty K’d like 100 hitters in 100 innings vs 30 walks. Made some spot starts late in the year at Triple-A.  Works really fast. He’s Upper-80s, low-70s curveball that he uses a lot and commands. Not really a prospect to look at him but interesting upper level performer.

12:40
Phillies Giant Prospect: What thoughts do you have on Kyle Young, a tall lefty in the Phillies farm system? He has been remarkably successful in two short seasons and should be ready to jump rankings as he gets into full season levels.

12:41
Eric A Longenhagen: He’s like 86-90 with crazy extension. Fringe upper-70s breaking ball. Again, he’s interesting to watch and see if his stuff ticks up or if he keeps performing at upper levels. Remarkable control for a lefty that tall (like 6-11) who is only 19

12:41
Mike: I saw the ZiPS projections for Cincinnati just now and I don’t mind telling you I’m a bit shocked. Can you confirm that there is a real person named Chadwick Tromp?

12:41
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, and he has a brother named Jiandido

12:41
Capt’n Canada: Who is Juan Then? Ranked 28th in Yankees.com list. I’m a huge yankee fan, and never heard of him.

12:42
Eric A Longenhagen:

New Yankees prospect Juan Then turns 18 in Feb. 88-92, will touch 94. Advanced feel for secondaries, potential plus change, 50/55 curve.
18 Nov 2017
12:42
Peter: Bold: Akil Baddoo will be a top 50 prospect by the end of 2018. Your thoughts?

12:42
Eric A Longenhagen: Aggressive but not impossible

12:42
Jackson: Is Gleyber Torres over hyped?

12:43
Eric A Longenhagen: Not from a talent perspective. From a ‘ready for the Majors’ perspective? Yeah, I thought so last fall and when I saw him in the summer.

12:43
Bob: Other than better velocity is there anything in Kopech’s profile that should ease CHW fans concerns that he’s just overhyped like Giolito and might just settle in as a #3-4 SP?

12:43
Eric A Longenhagen: Much better athlete

12:43
Andrew: Is Cole Freeman a prospect?

12:44
Eric A Longenhagen: Fringey but we’ve seen bat-first 2B prospects hit enough to get there. Sogard, Gennet,, Merrifield. Freeman is of that ilk.

12:45
Tom: Long term: Mitch Keller or Alex Reyes?

12:45
Eric A Longenhagen: Reyes

12:45
J: If Ohtani was only a hitting prospect where would he rank in the top 100?

12:45
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not sure he would.

12:45
Sara: Higher ceiling between J. Soto and J. Sanchez?

12:46
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m on Sanchez but like them both.

12:46
Nate J.: Good morning. As an owner in a dynasty league which played should I prioritize drafting for the long term: Acuna or Otani?

12:46
Eric A Longenhagen: Shohei

12:46
Jim: Ronald Guzman or Dom Smith?

12:46
Eric A Longenhagen: Guzman

12:46
Big Joe Mufferaw: I REALLY like Domingo German, he was really good and man, does his stuff ever look good! Do you think he is destined for Bullpen or Starting and why?

12:46
Eric A Longenhagen: Relief, has had a lot of injury issues.

12:46
SuperSonic: Should Seattle grab a Mike Ford in the Rule-5 draft?

12:47
Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, they’ve had enough 1B/DH-only guys on the 40-man the last few years.

12:47
Big Joe Mufferaw: As a “Spin King” Nolan Martinez is getting a lot of attention, but do you think his FB and Curve combo are destined for the Pen?

12:47
Eric A Longenhagen: I have him projected as a starter.

12:47
Anon: Is this the worst time of year for a sports writer?

12:48
Eric A Longenhagen: I mean, I’m stressed about lists and not really sleeping. But this is better than my old job.

12:48
Jimbo: Tatis a Top 10?

12:48
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah

12:48
Smitty: Should we give up on Tyler Wade after his atrocious MLB performance late last year?

12:48
Eric A Longenhagen: No

12:49
Eric A Longenhagen: Just a reminder that Mike Trout hit .220 in his first MLB stint

12:49
Gregg: Are the Steamer projections for Willie Calhoun reasonable?

12:49
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

12:50
Eric A Longenhagen: (they’re like .270/.330/.480 with 27 dingers, btw)

12:50
Bahama Mama: Hello Eric, have you had the opportunity to see Trent Deveaux or D’Shawn Knowles, and if so, what is your general opinion?

12:51
Eric A Longenhagen: I have. These are two youn Angels prospects. Knowles is very small but twitchy, has some speed. He’s a fringe guy for me. Deveaux has more room on his frame, showed some feel to hit in the fall. I prefer Deveaux but they’re both on my follow list for the spring.

12:51
Zonk: After reading what you wrote about the 12 Braves released, it looks like the Braves spent alot of money on a pretty mediocre group of prospects.   Is that your take?

12:53
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, the group doesn’t look great right now. Some of that is because they were on Gutierrez too early and he went backwards between when they agreed to a deal and when he signed. That happens semi-frequently. The pitchers are as advertised. Hitters have yet to fix their holes and Maitain obviously has physical issues preventing his tools from playing.

12:53
andy: Thoughts on cubs pitcher Micheal Rucker? His K/BB ratio seems to greatly out pace the scouting I’ve seen on him. Is he just a case of a guy who’s more than the sum of his tools because of deception or something?

12:54
Eric A Longenhagen: Aha, good find. Wrote him up at the end of May: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-530/

12:54
Mike: Does Mitchell White make an impact in LA this year? Starter or reliever going forward?

12:54
Eric A Longenhagen: He was like 89-92 for me during instructional league so I’d wait and see how he looks next spring before hopping on the bandwagon

12:55
Gregg: Can Willy Adames be a .260/.350/.450 kind of hitter long term with his approach and power?

12:55
Eric A Longenhagen: I believe so

12:55
fddhfjd: Does Alex Kiriloff get back on the top-100 radar this year?

12:55
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

12:55
Phan: Is Scott Kingery ready? What are your thoughts on him?

12:56
Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve had the pleasure of watching him since college. Had a first round grade on him at U of A. Think he has a chance to be a 70 hitter who plays gold glove defense at 2B. And I think some of this year’s power spike is for real. He made subtle mechanical changes.

12:56
Ohtani’s stiff front side: What’s left for Miguel Andujar in the Minors offensively (Hitting .317 with .886 OPS in AAA)? He has great tools are 3rd, but are his error problems an issue?

12:56
Eric A Longenhagen: Yup, you’re on it.

12:56
Matt: Jose De Leon 2017 was lost to injuries. Does he still project as a decent mid-rotation guy. I would put him 2nd inline after Honeywell to get a chance in 2018.

12:57
Eric A Longenhagen: I was the low guy on De Leon last offseason and now I seem to be the high guy. He’s had injury issues a few times. Still think he’s a #3/4 as long as the command he showed in 2016 returns.

12:57
Phan: Wahat are your thoughts on Eschelman in the phils’ system?

12:59
Eric A Longenhagen: Thomas Eshelman. RHP from Fullerton. 88-91, above avg cutter, below avg change and curveball, plus command. Backend starter.

12:59
Q-Ball: Love the Top Prospect reports!  Who is next on-deck?

12:59
Eric A Longenhagen: Cubbies are in editing and should be up tomorrow. Brewers next.

12:59
Chris: Do I keep Trevor Clifton in my 30-team dynasty with 15-man farms?

1:00
Eric A Longenhagen: No

1:00
Anon: How manypeople are in the chat?

1:00
Eric A Longenhagen: Like 400

1:00
Sharp: We’ve all heard that “There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.” Are there any numbers comparing the success rates of position players vs. pitchers in reaching their median expectations?

1:01
Eric A Longenhagen: I believe there are but I don’t have a link handy. Anecdotally, they’r more volatile in  large part because they’re more prone to injury. I think “TINSTAAPP” is a lazy excuse for getting them wrong, though.

1:02
Street: Shane Baz or Michael Baez?

1:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Baez

1:02
Brandon: Do you think we see Jorge Mateo in OAK this season? Thoughts on his potential?

1:04
Eric A Longenhagen: If I had to guess I’d say ‘no’ to 2018 Mateo debut right now. I think he’ll always be a little bit frustrating but could see low-OBP, with some pop that’s supplemented by his speed.

1:04
Carlton: If you are one of the big bonus pool remaining clubs that misses out on Ohtani, what do you do with the excess?  Spend on Maitan, or Julio Pablo?  Or someone(s) else?

1:05
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m first kicking the tires on Maitan, our whole office is having a discussion about it. If we’re satisfied there’s still something there, I’m chasing him. If not, Juan Contreras is next on the list of Braves guys and I’d be weighing him vs Julio Pablo Martinez.

1:06
DynastyGuy: Daulton Varsho (C, ARI) showed good power, OBP and bat control in Low-A ball after being drafted. It’s way early, but do you see his skill one day carrying over to the majors as a catcher?

1:07
Eric A Longenhagen: He’s not a lock to catch but does have rare speed and pop (that he probably needs a mechanical tweak to get to, but it’s in there) for a catcher so if you want a toolsy dynasty sleeper, he’s a solid get.

1:07
Watson: Will Franklin Perez be ready for a cup of coffee in DET this season?

1:07
Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe from a stuff/pitchability perspective but consider how light his workload has been to this point. Might not get there solely because of an innings limit.

1:07
Jason: Do you pay much attention to prospect batted profile? If so, do you find a consistent high infield flyball rate concerning? Like >20%?

1:08
Eric A Longenhagen: More now that those stats are on our site and available. It’s not a primary target of mine for analysis but if a guy is suddenly performing better than he had been, it’s one of the first places I look to see if there has been a change.

1:08
Jeff: Better 2B between Kingery and Hiura?

1:08
Eric A Longenhagen: Please don’t make me pick.

1:08
Just a question : Last year you didn’t finish the team lists until late April. This year you are behind that pace. Is there anyway you could streamline the process to finish by mid-March and fantasy drafts?

1:10
Eric A Longenhagen: Perhaps. I’m going as quickly as possible. They’re a lot of work but I do love what they are when they’re done and will fight tooth and nail to keep them that way. And I appreciate your desire to have all the reports in before you draft, but I’m not a fantasy guy and I don’t write the lists for fantasy purposes.

1:10
JR: Who’s the better middle infielder: Jeter Downs, Garrett Hampson, or Nicky Lopez?

1:11
Eric A Longenhagen: Downs has the best bat of that group, Lopez has the best glove. Hampson might be a speedy utility guy, the others are potential regulars.

1:11
Max: Do you think Chris Rodriguez as a future starter? Any MLB comparison for him?

1:12
Eric A Longenhagen: Has starter’s stuff but perhaps not command. I’m cautiously optimistic. I generally avoid comps. Find a high-effort four pitch guy and that’s probably close.

1:12
Eric A Longenhagen: Hold on, now I’m curious if that exists…

1:13
Eric A Longenhagen: Vince Velasquez? I can live with that.

1:14
Tito Martinez: How much did Justus Sheffield raise his prospect stock with his great AFL showing?

1:14
Eric A Longenhagen: Went from a firm 50 to a 55 for me, which means he moves from the (typically)  75-125 section of a top 100 to the 40-75 range.

1:15
Ian: Is Gordon, Romero, Gonsalves, Kiriloff and Thorpe to much for Archer?

1:15
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, that’s a lot.

1:16
Lilith: Do you have a prospect in the Reds system that you think will be in the top 100 this time next year that most people may not know about yet?

1:16
Eric A Longenhagen: If I had to pick a guy it’d be Downs

1:16
Carlton: Why would the Yankees trade Ronald Herrera for a non-top prospect, rather than not protect him but potentially getting him back?  I would think given the trend last year to focus on high upside, low minors guys would mean fewer teams are interested in an arm like Herrera.  And, his potential non-pick or return to the Yankees as a depth starter could be worth as much as the actual return received, even taking into account the risk of getting picked.

1:17
Eric A Longenhagen: I think that’s fair. They might have known he was going to get popped, though. I don’t think Reiver Sanmartin is a ‘non-prospect’ but definitely a fringe guy whose ceiling is about what Herrera already was. They had very little leverage.

1:18
Lilith: What do you know about Debby Santana? I know he’s extraordinarily young, but is he close to being a real prospect worth tracking?

1:18
Eric A Longenhagen: Sorry, I don’t have anything on him yet and don’t think I saw him this fall. Can confirm Debby is real, though.

1:19
JR: He’s no longer rookie eligible, but do you think Tony Kemp has a future as a regular?  Shouldn’t the Astros trade him?

1:19
Eric A Longenhagen: He’s of that Eric Young Jr 2B/LF with speed/bat but zero pop archetype. I’d hold him as upper-level depth.

1:20
jon: is Jen Ho Tseng 5th starter material?

1:20
Eric A Longenhagen: I have him a half grade short of that on the Cubs list.

1:20
Jaxon Roberts: Which of the A’s vaunted SS prospects, Mateo or Barretto, sticks at short?  Also who moves to center once future HOFer Schrock comes up to the show and takes over 2B?

1:20
Eric A Longenhagen: Get out of the chat and edit the Cubs list, Cistulli!

1:22
LegallyEagle: How do talent evaluators reconcile Brandon Morrow’s terrible AAA #s last year with his amazing season in the Majors?

1:23
Eric A Longenhagen: Guys like that you just have to look at the stuff and ride that wave while it lasts. Which is almost exactly what they did in the playoffs this year.

1:23
Gleyber Torres: How many questions do you have in the Queue?

1:23
Eric A Longenhagen: A lot

1:24
Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think there’s a way of knowing the exact number, I’ve never played with the software for fear of goofing something up.

1:24
Mystery Man: What do you know about INF Will Castro (just added to CLE 40) not even in FG database?

1:25
John Stamos: Rule 5 Eligible guys on Roster Resource: https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-40-man-additions-rule-5-eligible/

1:25
Eric A Longenhagen: WOAAAAAH, thank you.

1:25
andy: Have you seen Jonathan Sierra much? Mesa numbers looked ok for an 18 year old but not quite amazing as a $2.5 mil IFA signing bonus would indicate.

1:26
Eric A Longenhagen: I did. Huge raw power, very doubtful that he’s going to hit. Body is already quite mature.

1:26
Babe Lincoln: Any player development/scouting market inefficiencies you think teams should be exploiting?

1:26
Eric A Longenhagen: If you’re not scouting the lowest levels of the minors, you’re behind.

1:26
Corey: Do you know how often teams sign players with the intention of them being organizational filler?

1:27
Eric A Longenhagen: Those guys represent roughly 75% of drafted players.

1:27
Matt: Any good books about depression? I’m struggling

1:28
Eric A Longenhagen: Sorry man, I know of none. I have books written by or about people who dealt with terrible depression, though. Most of them, actually. You’re not alone and I hope things pick up for you.

1:29
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: What player, if traded to [insert favorite team] at the trade deadline and and guaranteed to only play for your team through the end of the season, would you be most inclined to buy a jersey? Assume an incredible story out of the postseason run, if not a World Series title.

1:30
Eric A Longenhagen: Been a while since I’ve bought a jersey. Trying to think if I ever did this just because, eventually, those jerseys are weird heirlooms. Like a Brett Favre Jets jersey or Randy Johnson Astros jersey.

1:31
Eric A Longenhagen: You’re also talking to the guy with multiple Stromile Swift jerseys

1:31
Steely Dan: Daniel Johnson had a great year at A/A+. Last year, you said he was toolsy but raw for a college guy. How much higher are you on him now that he has put together a successful season? Top 100?

1:31
Eric A Longenhagen: About the same. Still raw from what we saw in AFL.

1:31
barves: Alex Jackson looked good at the plate but what did he look like behind the plate in the AFL?

1:32
Eric A Longenhagen: Not great, but that’s common in the AFL when guys are worn down and catching an entirely new staff. I’ll lean on in-season reports on Jackson’s glove rather than what I saw in the AFL.

1:32
Dub: Did you get to scout Marlins Jose Fernandez (RIP)? If so what arm in today’s minor leagues come closest?

1:34
Eric A Longenhagen: Never saw him. He was in the Majors before I had a chance to see him. Would have had to have seen him with Greensboro in 2012.

1:34
I am the walrus: Do you see Dodger prize flame thrower Alvarez as a starter of closer?

1:34
Eric A Longenhagen: Starter, but you’re right to ask the question.

1:35
Eric A Longenhagen: Oh, please note the above link of Rule 5 eligibles is just NOTABLE guys, not all of them.

1:35
Dub: if there are a lot of 80 speeds wouldnt that push the bar higher? making some of those 80 speeds into 70-75s? So world class track sprinter is 80, if youre not quite a world class sprinter how could you be at same grade?

1:36
Eric A Longenhagen: Nope, the value in the scale is in communication, not scientific accuracy.

1:36
Roger: Did you get to see much of Mac Marshall in Instrux? Where is he at this point development-wise?

1:36
Eric A Longenhagen: Once. Wasn’t very good. Upper-80s with no control.

1:37
Derek: This may be addressed in your forthcoming top 100, but I’m curious why you prefer Acuna to Robles (you said the former was “clearly” the most talented player in the AFL). There may be reason to prefer Acuna to Robles, but it seems like a pretty close call to me.

1:38
Eric A Longenhagen: I think that’s fair. I love Robles, there might be a half grade between those two. And Robles iis ready to perform in the Majors right now, Acuna needs seasoning that he’ll have to get in the bigs because he’s too talented to be challenged at Triple-A.

1:38
Matt: Josh Gordon back

1:38
Eric A Longenhagen: A speculative add for my fantasy squad which has now lost several close games in a row.

1:39
Sharp: Most unique mechanics in the minors?

1:39
Eric A Longenhagen: Nolan Blackwood

1:40
Anon: Before you did it yourself, what was your go to reference for prospect info? Baseball America?

1:41
Eric A Longenhagen: I consumed it all. Stole BAs from the Lehigh Valley press box, read Keith’s stuff, Goldstein and Parks at BP, Callis/Mayo, I dove into MLEs and statistical projections, the Minor League Baseball Analyst. All of it.

1:41
Philip: More upside purely in the bat, Esteury Ruiz or Tirso Ornelas

1:42
Eric A Longenhagen: Jeez…..Ruiz.

1:42
Eric A Longenhagen: Ornelas is much more stable, he might be a .400 OBP guy. But Ruiz has all-fields power and still has room on the body.

1:43
Revisionist History: How can you say you always thought Martes future was in relief when you gave him a 60 FV last year?

1:43
Eric A Longenhagen: The lists are not solely my opinion. I can’t see all 6,500 minor leaguers, 40 rounds of drafted guys and international amateurs. I have to listen to people in baseball. They loved Martes. All of them.

1:43
Guest: Is Zac Houston potentially a special reliever? His minor league numbers are ridiculous but I’ve never seen him pitch

1:44
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. Heavy mid-90s fastball, above average slider. looks like a set-up guy to me.

1:45
Johnny5: How did Judge and Sanchez completely blow past any projections they were given based on their mL performances?

1:46
Eric A Longenhagen: The baseball and Yankee Stadium’s hilarious dimensions? Maybe those don’t explain everything but you’ve got to acknowledge they explain part of it.

1:46
Anthony: Blaine Knight a potential top 10 pick if he replicates his sophomore season?

1:46
Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe a rd1 guy but not top 10

1:47
Anthony: How significant are “vision issues” for a prospect like Marte? Obviously, if there’s some sort of long-term condition, that seems like a massive red flag, but wouldn’t that otherwise be kind of correctable?

1:48
Eric A Longenhagen: Nobody really knows except the Twins. We’ve seen (pardon the phrasing) players have deals voided for vision issues before (Wagner Mateo) and they did struggle with what you’d anticipate they’d struggle with on the baseball field. But yeah, people I’ve talked to in baseball regarding the Marte situation also wonder, depending on the specifics of the issue, if ti is correctable.

1:48
norman: Adolis Garcia (StL), Tilson (CHiS), Duggar(SF), Ervin (Cinn) , Franchy Cordero (SD), Tauchman (COL) …which 2 will have the best MLB career ?

1:48
Eric A Longenhagen: Adolis and Duggar (who really grew on my this fall)

1:49
Wally: How would you rank WAS scouting and PD group?  middle of the pack, at one end or other?  What is their rep in the industry generally?  Was just thinking that many of their traded prospects are starting to look good (Luzardo, Neuse, Hearn, even going back to Ray and Peacock), and wonder that affects how people look at them

1:52
Eric A Longenhagen: Great question. I think they do a good job. They’ve hit on top picks and have done well internationally after that department was left for dead following the Esmailyn Gonzalez controversy. Teams deal prospects to win a title, that’s what WAS has done, and I thin it’s important to view their scouting and PD departments through that lense.

1:53
Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve thought about this a lot lately as it pertains to Seattle. Their system is terrible, but not because they haven’t done well scouting. All their guys just get traded away.

1:53
Wes: Last week you mentioned you do not interact much with players. To what degree to you interact with major league scouts? Do they share opinions with you or listen to yours?

1:54
Eric A Longenhagen: Every day, and yeah I get my two cents in.

1:54
Mac: What did you think of Mejia at 3B in the AFL?

1:54
Eric A Longenhagen: His arm strength is incredible. Footwork and hands predictably need work.

1:54
Gleyber Torres: Which prospect had the “ugliest” swing that you’ve seen and actually became good?

1:55
Eric A Longenhagen: Hunter Pence

1:55
I am the walrus: What do you think about ss prospects Profar and Mondesi (kc) reaching league average value?

1:55
Eric A Longenhagen: I think Profar finds a way to do it. Mondesi, I’m doubtful.

1:55
Mordecai Brown: What do you mean when you say a prospect is “twitchy”?

1:57
Eric A Longenhagen: Short-area quickness, reaches top speed quickly, baseball actions and reactions are quick, almost anticipatory.

1:58
Eric A Longenhagen: Go watch Matt Weiters do a bunch of things and then watch young Jose Reyes and you’ll see two guys on opposite ends of the twitch spectrum

1:58
Baez’s Hands: What do you think of Wyatt Mills?  He and JP Sears wrecked low A out of college, but who has better stuff?  If Festa or Warren, feel free to substitute.

1:59
Eric A Longenhagen: Mills, Warren, Festa, Sears. Had a scout put a closer grade on Mills, some did the same on Warren in AFL.

1:59
Baez’s Hands: Brandon Dixon is listed as a 2B.  Can you explain?

1:59
Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a 2B the way I was a PF on the freshman basketball team

1:59
Eric A Longenhagen: (I’m 5-11)

2:00
Tugs: People keep pegging the Brewers for long term 2B trades (Dee Gordon, Whit Merrifield) to shore up our hole, but my future is 100% set on Keston Hiura.  Too soon for that kind of hype?

2:00
Eric A Longenhagen: Nope

2:00
Duhbear: Any reports on Travis Ott? Left off the 40-man after an absolutely dominant second half. He’s older than his competition, but he was sterling.

2:02
Eric A Longenhagen: I think I checked on him mid-year because he was dominant. Upper-80s, low slot lefty with some funk. Might be Rule 5’d because you might look at him and think he gets lefties out right now. Hoby Milner had worse stuff than Ott and was 5’d last year.

2:02
Dan : If you have a hitting prospect with a future 70 hit tool, which tool is 2nd-most important for predicting future success: power, defense, speed? Thanks!

2:03
Eric A Longenhagen: If you’re a 70 hitter and can play either SS or CF I’m drooling

2:03
ryan: I’d just like to thank Jason for asking the awesome IFF question

2:03
TumbleWeed: Who says no?

2:03
Lucas: Is Breiling Eusebio worth keeping an eye on, or is the profile kind of meh?

2:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Absolutely worth following. Lefty up to 94 with flashing 55 change and avg breaking ball

2:04
Eric!: The Angels’ farm no longer sucks, right?

2:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Correct

2:04
YKnotDisco?!: How good of a prospect was Pat Connaughton?

2:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Probable reliever

2:05
Michael: Which of these LAA arms makes the biggest jump in 2018: Jerryell Rivera, Jose Soriano, Wilkel Hernandez, Stiward Aquino

2:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Soriano or Hernandez

2:05
Rob: In a report from instructs a month or so ago, you touted Sandro Fabian as having “special” offensive ability (or maybe just tools). At the risk of being an idiot (or a semantic troll), what do you mean by “special”? Compared to his peers in the minors or are you projecting forward to what he’ll be in the majors?

2:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Bat-to-ball and bat speed. Approach is obviously too aggressive.

2:06
Jake: Did you see Ka’ai Tom in AFL action? What’s your take?

2:06
Eric A Longenhagen: I did and loved his effort level. He’s very small but made some nice plays in CF, squared a bunch of balls up. Have him as a bench OF for now.

2:06
Seanto: Dude, Stromile Swift doesn’t have multiple Stromile Swift jerseys…

2:06
Eric A Longenhagen: I know. I was a weird kid.

2:07
Tony Campana: What is arm action and what defines an efficient/good arm action? Does anyone really know?

2:09
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, scouts and people who study biomechanics have different ideas of what it means. Scouts would describe an efficient arm action as shorter, generating good velo with little visible effort/violence. Biomechanically efficient arm actions are ones that generate as much velocity as humanly possible. So, it’s guys with big time external shoulder rotation whose arm takes a winding staircase path through release. Think Billy Wagner or Joel Zumaya.

2:09
Eric A Longenhagen: Oh, go to our Youtube page and look at Brailyn Marquez video. That kid sits 91-95 with that arm swing. That’s what a scout might call ‘efficient’ but not someone familiar with biomechanics

2:10
Eric A Longenhagen: And with that, I must depart. I hope you learned something here this week and will endeavor to do so again next Tuesday. Goodbye.





Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.

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mlbjk8
4 years ago

Fantasy guy here, I genuinely appreciate you being willing to take a few fantasy questions. Nice work