Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 7/18

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t have anything especially witty to open the chat with this week so…

GPT: Can Giants fans start to get excited about Sandro Fabian?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s fair to say you have a nice little prospect down here in Scottsdale, but not that he’s burst on the scene and has obvious star-level tools.

Eric A Longenhagen: Before I went in to see the Giants I texted a bunch of scouts who have the AZL as part of their coverage to ask who I should be watching and none of them said Fabian.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s a solid athlete with a chance to have an average bat and power, maybe above average D in RF.

Eric A Longenhagen: But he’s a long way off.

Rob: You think Teoscar Hernandez is a future regular?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like him but he’s more of a fringe-regular/high end bench guy for me. Hard to see him hitting for enough power to play everyday.

Philip: Michael Gettys raw power is starting to play a bit more what’s a realistic optimistic outcome for him in majors?

Eric A Longenhagen: He has star-level tools, the question has always been whether or not he’d hit. If by “realistic optimistic” (a phrase that I really like, even if it makes my head hurt) you mean something like a 66th percentile projection, I think it’s an everyday player who gets by on his physical skill while frustrating fans with a lot of swing and miss and technical miscues.

BK: Rowdy Tellez has been destroying the ball since a rough April. Is he a legitimate middle of the order bat 2 years from now?

Eric A Longenhagen: I remain skeptical. For that swing to work, Rowdy needs to have amazing timing and I don’t think he does.

Bryant: The Padres recently said – and I’m paraphrasing – that they’re building to compete in 2019. Is Luis Urias a AAAA guy, bench player, or potentially something more for that team?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably not enough game power to profile as an impact regular at 2B/3B but I do believe in the bat-to-ball and think he’s going to be a fun utility-type or fringe regular.

Pat: Greg Allen: Any chance he gets to AA soon/what’s his upside — starter or fourth OF?

Eric A Longenhagen: Full report here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-indians-prospects-2700-miles-apart/

Brad: Bo Bichette has been a machine in the GCL. Does he see under-the-lights baseball this season? Also, do some teams look at how he’s performed so far & regret not taking him late 1, or is this not enough sample size to draw any Tye of conclusion?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d definitely give him some time up at either Bluefield or Vancouver toward the end of the season, but think it’s fine to let him barbecue in Florida and have success for a while. I don’t think anyone regrets passing on him, too early for revisionist history on this draft class.

John: Is jake thompson ready for the majors?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I think he could come up now and compete for five or six innings. But he still has some things (fastball command, primarily) I’d like to see him improve upon overall.

Zack: Is Vogelbach alone enough of a return for Miller? Chapman?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not on Vogelbach. WOuldn’t do that if I were Cashman.

Dave: If the Astros don’t make any moves for starting pitching, how do you feel about Joe Musgrove’s potential this season and the future?

Eric A Longenhagen: Think he’s an inning-eating #4 starter.

KG: Zack Collins with a great start at Winston-Salem. Chances of staying at catcher? Thoughts on the bat?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just submitted a piece to Cistulli for editing on White Sox prospects I’ve seen lately, Collins included therein. He looked better, defensively, than I anticipated in the AZL but pre-draft reports were far too pessimistic about his chances of staying there to just toss them out.

Eric A Longenhagen: Plus, AZL pitchers’ stuff isn’t generally very good, and that could have masked some of his issues.

Eric A Longenhagen: Offensively, his approach is mature, there’s plus bat speed but it’s a pull-heavy approach that might limit the contact he makes.

Eric: Scallops or shrimp?

Eric A Longenhagen: Scallops, assuming they’re done correctly.

Ronnie: Hader is the clear #1 Brewers pitching prospect but would you slot in Woodruff at #2 with his success this year & the regression of Lopez?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, I’d probably have Ponce #2.

@jordo2323: How far into your prospect-radar radius is young Brewers pitcher Marcos Diplan? Has he moved into significant prospect status with his work in the Midwest League and the extremely young promotion?

Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely on the radar, the stuff has always been interesting. But the body, delivery, command…all have scouts leaning reliever there.

CJM: Ceiling for Yadier Alvarez?

Eric A Longenhagen: Top of the rotation starter.

Eric B Longenhagen: Last week you said you had more faith in Hoskins than Cozens performing at the Major League level. Why is that?

Eric A Longenhagen: Cozens’ off-speed recognition is poor and his swing — which features a really heavy weight transfer that leaves him way out on his front foot in general, let alone when he’s fooled by off speed — exacerbates the issue. He’s so strong that it might not matter and he might be able to just muscle balls into play all over the place, even when he’s fooled.

Eric A Longenhagen: I thin Hoskins tracks better and has a better feel for hitting, overall. I’m just more confident in him making contact.

Eric A Longenhagen: Reading is a power hitter’s paradise. It’s given us a 38 homer season from Darin Ruf an 20+ homer seasons from guys like Tagg Bozied, Jim Murphy, Matt Rizzotti….

Eric A Longenhagen: And yet every few years someone comes thru Reading, hits a bunch of homers and everyone forgets about those guys.

Guest: Any thoughts on Gurriel? Did the Astros land an impact guy or do you think he is over the hill now? Also, thoughts on his brother?

Eric A Longenhagen: International scouts I’ve spoken with on Yuli have generally lukewarm but positive things to say. 7 arm, average defense at 2B, 3B or either OF corner.

Eric A Longenhagen: 50 raw power, scouts expect something like 15-20 homers though I suppose the Crawford Boxes will have something to say about that.

Eric A Longenhagen: The most polarizing tool is the bat. I’ve has some say 55, others say the swing is long and expect more of a 45.

Nick: Have you seen any 2017 draft guys yet? You’ll be at the Area Code games, correct?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just the dudes I ran into this spring while seeking out 2016s (Hunter Greene, Nick Brueser, etc). Heading to Chicago for the UA game this weekend then right back to AZ for the PG World Series. Area Codes and PG All America are in August and I’ll be there, too.

Adam: Could it be argued that the Padres didn’t receive enough of a return for Pomeranz considering the volatility of young arms, especially in a one-for-one deal?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think you could argue that they didn’t do anything to mitigate risk, but I don’t agree that they didn’t “receive enough”

Adam: Espinoza and Morejon on the same minor league pitching staff? Which of the two has more upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: Espinoza has more upside.

FTF: Any thoughts on Tristen McKenzie ? D. Farnsworth was quite high on him.

Eric A Longenhagen: Love him. Had as much, if not more, physical projection than any prep arm I’ve seen. Actually, there were lots of people who were concerned that he would never fill out because his frame was too slight to support it. But everything is going right there.

Bob: What do you think of Scott Kingrey? He has looked good.

Eric A Longenhagen: Plus run, plus hit, plus defense at 2B. Probably won’t ever have better than 40 game power, but I think the rest of the profile is good enough to play everyday regardless of the power.

Matt: I consider myself relatively well informed in farm systems, but yet when I’m in your chats, I don’t know half of the guys asked about. You always have answers. Do you know this off the top of your head, or are you referencing notes?

Eric A Longenhagen: Depends on the player. I do have my notes here on the coffee table in our Hipster Lounge just in case they merit reference. It’s a practice driven by paranoia rather than vigilance.

BJ: Any thoughts on Genesis Cabrera?

Eric A Longenhagen: Like him more than Rush Fernandez but not as much as Yes Gonzalez or Emerson Lake Palmeiro.

Chris: Would you attribute Winker’s power drain to the wrist injury or are there other concerns?

Eric A Longenhagen: He looked bat rehabbing here in the AZL. Bat speed is gone, he was late on 89-91 and missing those in the zone. It could be because of the injury, yes, and there’s a chance that explosiveness comes back as he gets healthy, but it’s something to watch.

Eric A Longenhagen: And is Winnker ever really healthy?

Eric A Longenhagen: I had a 7 on that guy’s bat at one point, so I’m bummed about it.

Josh: Kolby Allard seems to be recovered from his back procedure and is missing bats. What’s his realistic projection ? Strong #3 ?

Eric A Longenhagen: After the summer showcases in 2014, I had Allard in my own personal 1-1 conversation, albeit on the outskirts. I think “strong #3” is realistic, yes.

Brad: Any thoughts on Leody Taveras? Any other helium (fast-rising) prospects like him to keep on eye out for?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s been creating quite a buzz here in AZ and, considering the position Texas is in as we approach the Trade Deadline, there have been an unusually high number of scouts at Rangers AL games of late.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a 6 arm and he has the speed for CF but his feel for it right now isn’t great, he failed to make some plays I thought he should late last week. His feel for hitting from the left side is exceptional for his age but his right-handed swing is bat.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s really interesting.

jon: Has Lewis Brinson fallen at all in your estimation this year? Or just chalk it up to a snakebitten year?

Eric A Longenhagen: The latter. Too much talent to simply cast aside. He looked incredible during ST.

Tom: Any reason for Christin Stewart to remain in A+?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, it gives FSL pitchers the opportunity to make adjustments to him and evaluate how he responds, though I don’t dismiss your desire to push him a little bit. He’s exceeded my pre-draft expectations so far.

jon: Are you higher on Soler or Kepler? I feel like Soler is a change-of-scenery away from realizing some success.

Eric A Longenhagen: Soler’s tools are more explosive but I’m more confident in Kepler’s ability to hit.

Roger Salkeld: Is James Paxton always going to be limited by his ability to locate quality secondary pitches? His velo on FB has returned, but strikeouts and consistency do not really speak to having “turned the corner”.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s tough for guys with extreme vertical arm slots to command the baseball east and west. He might find a way to succeed anyway, but if he does it will probably be through non-traditional (and thus difficult to predict) means.

Jeff: Now that Jason Groome has signed, how does he compare to the other Red Starting pitcher prospects?

Eric A Longenhagen: With Espinoza out of the system, he’s the man. And yes, I have him ahead of Kopech.

Roger Salkeld: Why are there few/no players with high OBP and great base stealing ability in MLB today? Is this a feature of clubs devaluing steals, the rarity of on-base skills combined with speed?

Eric A Longenhagen: Long answer coming, hold tight…

Eric A Longenhagen: So, think about players’ skills as a Venn Diagram. The player you’re describing, a High OBP Burner, needs to have a really specific collection of tools/skills. He has to be fast, obviously, but also be enough of a power threat to force pitchers to nibble around the zone while simultaneously possessing th

Eric A Longenhagen: the pitch recognition and approach to take advantage of it.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s hard to find that guy, especially when you consider that a player probably has to be pretty big to have threatening power, but that getting bigger probably means cannibalizing your speed.

Eric A Longenhagen: And if there is a guy, certainly an American prospect, who is capable of retaining speed while also being huge and hitting a ton of bombs, he’s probably playing football.

MS: Canes fan here, Jacob Heyward has been great so far in the AZL. Just too advanced for the level or will his tools play better as a pro?

Eric A Longenhagen: Plus bat speed, good athlete, definitely too advanced for the AZL though.

Matt: Jeff Hendrix just got promoted to High A. Do you know much about him? What’s his bat looking like moving forward?

Eric A Longenhagen: Saw him a lot in college. 7 runner, feel for CF is fine. I believe in the bat speed and admire the opposite field approach but I don’t think he’ll hit for much power and, while his numbers are good, he’s still a college bat from a power conference in Low-A and I want to see more before I anoint him as more than a fourth OF type.

John: Strictly for a dynasty league, which SS do you like better between G Torres and A Rosario?

Eric A Longenhagen: Rosario

One L Wil: Renfroe has 25 HR power in the NL West?

Eric A Longenhagen: Has that kind of raw power, yes. Does he hit enough to get to it? Not so sure about that.

Ljubl: Kyle Higashioka (Yankees AA) has looked offensively competent (based on stats I guess) for a while. What’s preventing him from being a legit Catching prospect in that system? Lack of defense? Or just a guy tagged as depth?

Eric A Longenhagen: There are aspects of the defense that are inconsistent but he hit for me when I saw him earlier this month and I think he’s an interesting sleeper.

FTF: What is your favourite team, Eric?

Eric A Longenhagen: When I was really little I liked the Yankees because they had Pat Kelly. Around about ’99, I became agnostic and generally disinterested in baseball for like two years before the ’01 Dbacks brought me back into the fold. From then on it was the Phillies until ’08 when I began working in the game and my fandom just kind of evaporated. I didn’t plan for it to go that way, it just did.

One L Wil: Do you think Mazara got figured out and might see a demotion at some point this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: No way I’m demoting him. He needs to adjust to the way MLB pitchers are attacking him now and the only way to do that is to let him fight his way through. Lots of hitters deal with this.

Guest: What does Ozzie Albies look like in 3-4 years? Does he have enough of a hit tool to bat .300?

Eric A Longenhagen: Highly-entertaining, fringe regular at 2B. Bear in mind that’s in 3-4 years, when he’ll only be 22 and not even close to his physical prime. Mid to late 20s? I think he makes some All Star teams.

Philly Pfan: Will Tapia be mocked by his peers with his crouch when he gets to big leagues? Should he keep it, and does it work?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think he’ll be mocked but I’m not sold that it’s a good idea to voluntarily change one’s eye level the way Tapia’s crouch does. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-measurable-effects-of-changing-an-umpires-eye-level/

TINSTAAPP: do you shed a tear everytime a good pitcher gets drafted by Rockies? Knowing they will never be free…. Speaking of, do you think Pomeranz tanked there to get out? just kidding…. kind of…..

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Pomeranz took off when a) he upped the curveball usage and b) when he ditched that changeup in pursuit of his cutter. Never had an arm action that was changeup friendly. Whoever instigated those changes deserves a ton of credit. I’ve long been down on Pom, considered him a reliever since he was drafted. It came late, but it looks like I was lite.

Rick C: Last week you said you would not give up more for Teheran than a package headlined by Travis Shaw. But given the return for Pomeranz, what do you think is a realistic return for Teheran?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, for those that missed it last week I said that I’d give up a 45 FV prospect for Teheran and that’s about it (because I consider Teheran a 50, long term) but considering what the sellers market looks like for pitching, that’s probably far too little.

Eric A Longenhagen: And I think I said Sam Travis, not Shaw.

Eric A Longenhagen: And the reason I’m down on Teheran is because I see a drop and drive pitcher who has very little hope of ever developing a good breaking ball. I think fastball/changeup pitchers can succeed by relying heavily on those two offerings but that it also limits there ceilings unless they make an adjustment at some point, the way Cole Hamels did when he added his cutter.

Eric A Longenhagen: Teheran’s career FIP has hovered around 4.

Eric: Most athletic player in minors?

Eric A Longenhagen: Keep in mind that I think there’s a difference between explosiveness (run fast, hit ball far) and athleticism (body control).

Eric A Longenhagen: Off the top of my head, J.P. Crawford.

Eric A Longenhagen: Albies is on the short list, too.

Rick C: You don’t think Teheran has a good breaking ball? His curve ranks 10th in value, and his slider 13th. And on a per 100 pitches rate, they are respectively ranked 4th and 15th.

Eric A Longenhagen: Grading pitches via traditional scouting looks at the pitch in a vacuum. Results-based analysis of pitch value is rife with context-dependent noise.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s not altogether invalid, but it’s imperfect.

Bartolo: Is this the year Ronald Guzman puts it together?

Eric A Longenhagen: Guys with levers that long typically have to make little adjustments throughout their entire careers, but he does look really good right now. The body has matured in a good way and he’s gotten comfortable using his lower half.

Ryan: Is it rare for a drop and drive pitcher to spin a good breaking ball?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not necessarily, Teheran just doesn’t have that natural downward snap the creates dive in breaking balls. His hand is often behind the baseball instead of on top of it.

Bartolo: Tell the world about Ricky Aracena!

Eric A Longenhagen: High-effort player who is about 5’8, already physically mature and profiles as a utility-type. He signed for $850K in 2014. Nice little player.

Randy: You say Musgrove is a #4 starter–to illustrate could you give a few examples of #3 and #4 starters in MLB?

Eric A Longenhagen: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-explained-the-20-80-scouting-scale/

Eric A Longenhagen: #4 starters are league average, produce about 2-2.5 WAR annually. #3s are really good, 60s on the scouting scale and worth upwards of 3 WAR annually.

Eric A Longenhagen: I looked the other day and something like 12 pitchers have been worth an average of 4+ WAR over the past three years. Top of the Rotation arms are rare, we overuse that term.

handing out strikes guy: how’s trent clark doing in the minors so far? i’ve heard good things about his progress.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve gotten some mixed reports, actually. Still a believer in his ability to play CF and have a plus bat. But based on how he’s performing this year he’ll probably require more external sourcing than I thought he would in April when he looked great.

Clarence: Have you seen that Stephen Alamais double-play turn from the other night? His athleticism has really stood out at WV

Eric A Longenhagen: Both he and Jake Rogers were a lot of fun to watch play defense in college.

Adam: Based on how he’s looked thus far in his return from Tommy John surgery, where do you think Cal Quantrill begins next season? High A?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think his assignment next year probably depends more on how he looks next spring, honestly. He looks okay right now. The velo is back and that changeup is flashing but the breaking ball is bad and I expected a more sturdy, strong physique. He’s just getting started up again after rehab so I’m not concerned.

Donaldson: Christin Stewart, Ruddy Giron, Oscar De La Cruz – Could you see any of these prospects becoming top 100 in the near future?

Eric A Longenhagen: Stewart’s raw power is tough to ignore and I’m more confident in his ability to hit than I was pre-draft. I like Giron but not sure there’s anything about the skillset that commands top 100 consideration. De la Cruz I saw this week and he was 92-95 with a plus slider, but he’s hurt a lot and the delivery limits his ability to throw strikes. He might be the kind of guy who gets moved to relief with the hope that he can fast track before he breaks again. That’s not a top 100 type of guy.

Brad: Derek Fisher or Jake Bauers better fantasy producer?

Eric A Longenhagen: Would rather have Fisher’s power and speed than Bauers bat-first, 1B profile but I think Fisher’s bust potential is higher.

YK: What do you think about Shohei Otani as a hitter? Currently slashing .328/.439/1.058 this year

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s cute but he’s a pitcher only for me.

Benny Boop: What do you think of Adalberto Mejia? Any chance he’s up this year before Sept?

Eric A Longenhagen: Solid average four pitch mix with a good idea of how to use it. I think he’s a #4 and I do believe he could help the big club this year. I need to watch the video I took of him at the Futures Game and comp it to last fall because I think the arm slot might be a little lower.

Bobby Sandy: Do you think Kevin newman is more above average regular or quality utility guy?

Eric A Longenhagen: Closer to the former. I buy that he hits and stays at SS

Mike T.: Is there a recent worse idea than trying Kyle Drabek at shortstop?

Eric A Longenhagen: Have you seen who’s running for president?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m really excited to see Drabek at SS. I don’t think it’ll work, but it will sure be fun.

Ryan: Otani a pitcher only because you don’t think the bat translates, or because he’s such a good pitcher that you put him in a bubble the 4 days he isn’t on the mound?

Eric A Longenhagen: Both.

Ryan: With the 2016 struggles of Giron and Javier Guerra put Jose London back at the top of the Padres prospect depth chart?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not ready to toss Guerra aside just yet and I’d have Rondon ahead of Giron anyway because I like the glove much more.

Adam: Is Jake Bauers a Yonder Alonso type player or something more?

Eric A Longenhagen: Those two have very different backgrounds but I see what you’re getting at there and I don’t think it’s off base. Hit before power 1B-only guys.

Bobby Sandy: Do you think Anthony Banda has a chance to be more than a number 4 starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: No and I think projecting him as a starter at all is a little optimistic.

Eric A Longenhagen: Good chat today (nearly two hours). I’ve got a piece on White Sox prospects up today (including Fulmer) and more on the guys I’ve seen lately coming this week before I head to Chicago this weekend for the Under Armour All American game at Wrigley, so you’ll have some 2017 draft content next week as well.