FanGraphs Power Rankings: April 24–30

We’re a month into the season and have seen some pretty big swings in the power rankings with plenty of surprises. Here’s how everything stands as we head into the second month of the season.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

After being shut out in back-to-back games and losing their first series of the year to the Astros early last week, the Rays took out all their frustrations on the hapless White Sox, scoring 38 runs in their four-game series. An ugly seven-run meltdown in the ninth by Tampa Bay’s bullpen on Sunday was the only thing keeping them from a sweep over the weekend. That aside, the Rays are leading the league in nearly every significant offensive category; it’s hard not to when Randy Arozarena is doing everything right and Wander Franco has seemingly made the leap to superstardom. Amazingly enough, Rays position players have produced almost double the WAR as the next highest team: 10.9 to the Rangers’ 5.5.

The Pirates enter May with the best record in the National League, something no one could have predicted a month ago. They started off the week with a series win against the Dodgers, then signed their best player, Bryan Reynolds, to an eight-year extension. For the first time in a while, Pittsburgh is playing competitive baseball, and a lot of the underlying metrics believe in this surprising hot start. The Bucs will face a tough challenge to start the month with a series in Tampa Bay followed by a date with the Blue Jays at home.

If it weren’t for those pesky Rays, the Orioles would be leading the AL East after a month of play. They’ve got the second-best record in the AL and went 5–2 last week against the Red Sox and Tigers. Their bullpen has been phenomenal, with the unhittable Yennier Cano featuring as the big breakout. On offense, Cedric Mullins and Adley Rutschman are leading the way with a breakout from Jorge Mateo helping tremendously. Gunnar Henderson, our top overall prospect coming into the year, still hasn’t gotten his bat going, and Ryan Mountcastle is suffering from tremendously rotten luck on his batted balls. All that is to say, Baltimore isn’t getting full contributions from its lineup but is still scoring 5.3 runs per game anyway.

Remember when the Blue Jays were having trouble with their pitching staff to start the season? Prior to yesterday’s 10-run blowup, they had completed an eight-game stretch where they allowed a total of nine runs, posting three shutouts and winning seven of those games. Alek Manoah is getting back on track, Kevin Gausman has been dominant but without the extreme BABIP issues that plagued him last year, and José Berríos’ peripherals have been great (just don’t look at his actual results).

By taking two of three from the Yankees earlier this week, the Twins won their season series against New York for the first time since 2002. That doesn’t seem all that remarkable (the 22-year gap aside) considering they’re not in the same division and only play each other six or seven times a year. But remember, these two teams have met six times in the postseason since 2002, and the Yankees have won all of those series, too. The combined regular-season and playoff record between these two teams over the last 22 years is 116–44 in favor of New York. One season series does not erase that long period of domination, but it’s got to feel good to find some success against a long-time bully.

The Dodgers weathered a wild confluence of multiple players out on paternity leave over the last few weeks. With a number of other players currently injured, their short-handed roster forced Mookie Betts to man shortstop for the first time in his major league career. Luckily, Max Muncy is mashing baseballs again, and they’re getting a bunch of players back from the IL soon. What’s clear, though, is that Los Angeles just doesn’t have the same kind of depth this year that the team has enjoyed over the past decade of dominance.

In a World Series rematch over the weekend, the Phillies emerged victorious, winning two of three in Houston and pushing themselves over .500 for the first time this season; they’ve now won four series in a row. This stretch of hot play comes at the perfect time: should everything go well in his latest check on his elbow, Bryce Harper is expected to be activated from the IL this week, two months ahead of schedule. His return should give a boost to an offense that’s enjoyed a few bright spots early this season but could really use a shot in the arm to get things going.

The Mariners wrapped up a disappointing first month of the season with a come-from-behind victory against Toronto in extra innings on Sunday. After getting some bad news about Robbie Ray’s elbow injury, they could use all the inspiration they can possibly get. The pitching depth behind Ray is a justifiable concern, and they’re currently losing all the games they had made a habit of winning over the last two years: they’re 3–9 in one-run games and 1–5 in extras. But it’s not all bad in Seattle: Jarred Kelenic continues to hit well, George Kirby has developed into a frontline starter, and the team’s run differential looks a lot better than its actual record.

The Yankees had a week to forget, losing two of three to the Twins and then dropping three of four in Texas, including a 15–2 blowout on Sunday. They’ve won just three of their last 10 and have scored a mere 2.8 runs per game during that stretch of poor play, and a 12-run outburst on Wednesday is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. To make matters worse, Aaron Judge might have to hit the IL with a hip injury. The only saving grace has been Gerrit Cole’s dominance.

The Cardinals wrapped up a 2–8 road trip with a rough three-game sweep in Los Angeles and finish April with a 10–19 record — their worst start since 1973, the first time they’ve ended April with a losing record since 2007, and the first time they’ve ever finished the first month of the season in last place in the NL Central. They demoted Jordan Walker to work on his outfield defense and solve their outfield logjam, but that hasn’t helped their offense’s output. Neither has Nolan Arenado, who has been stuck in an early slump.

After a rough 7–15 start, the Reds rattled off five wins in a row this week and almost extended that streak to six but lost in the ninth inning on Sunday. Nick Senzel collected 10 hits last week, including the game-winning home run on Wednesday. His career has been derailed by injuries, so it’s nice to see him healthy and producing. Jonathan India has also been healthy and looks like he’s finally following up on his breakout Rookie of the Year campaign.

This headline from Jay Jaffe neatly sums up the situation on the South Side of Chicago: “The White Sox Are Utterly Terrible.” Though they managed to snap their 10-game losing streak with a miraculous seven-run outburst in the ninth inning against the Rays on Sunday, prior to that, it looked like yet another bullpen meltdown was leading to their 11th loss in a row. To be fair, they’ve faced the toughest schedule in the majors during this first month of the season, but they haven’t even looked competitive during this ugly month of play. A team with this kind of talent on its roster can’t be this bad, but it’s abundantly clear that Chicago is not as good as everyone assumed after a fantastic 2021 season.

…