FanGraphs Power Rankings: July 26–August 8

With the July 30 trade deadline come and gone and the August waiver trade deadline a relic of the past, teams are set for the stretch run. Perhaps that’s why the deadline was so frantic; all of the contenders and bubble teams had one last chance to upgrade their rosters before the final two months of the season. We’re only a week into August and the standings in the two eastern divisions have already been shaken up.

A quick refresher: my approach takes the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (50%/50% FIP- and RA9-) — and combines them to create an overall team quality metric. I add in a factor for “luck” — adjusting based on a team’s expected win-loss record — to produce a power ranking.

Even though the Dodgers added a ton of firepower to their roster at the end of July, the Giants have maintained their grip on both first place in the NL West and the best record in baseball. Getting Kris Bryant was a critical response to Los Angeles adding Trea Turner and Max Scherzer, and Bryant has had no problems settling in. He’s already played three different positions and has collected 10 hits in his first eight games as a Giant. They’ve won four straight series against the likes of the Dodgers, Astros, and Brewers.

Scherzer and Turner made their Dodger debuts this last week, giving the injury-wracked club a huge boost. The Dodgers lineup has gotten a lot healthier with the recent return of Corey Seager but the team still has 14 pitchers currently on the Injured List. The latest bad news was a setback in Clayton Kershaw’s rehab, pushing his timeline into September. They won’t have to worry about missing out on a playoff berth, but if they want to push the Giants for the NL West lead, they’ll need some help on the pitching front. They signed Cole Hamels last week but their most impactful reinforcements will be coming off the IL sometime in the next two months.

The Rays find themselves on top of the AL East after the Red Sox crashed back to earth over the last two weeks. Tampa Bay swept Boston in three games two weekends ago and a series loss to the Mariners interrupted two four-game win streaks. The top two teams in the AL East match up for another three-game set in Boston this week, with the clubs seemingly headed in very different directions.

The White Sox lost five of seven games against the Royals over the last two weeks. They offset those losses with a series win against Cleveland and a sweep of the Cubs over the weekend. With their lead in the AL Central secure, they don’t really have to worry about this slight swoon, especially with Eloy Jiménez back in the fold and Luis Robert on his way back. After a series against the Twins, the White Sox face the Yankees, Athletics, Rays, and Blue Jays to close out the month. That stretch won’t threaten their lead in the division but it could go a long way towards determining the top seed in the American League.

There are five American League teams in this tier fighting over three playoff spots, and with the way they’ve been playing recently, the Red Sox are going to play their way right out of one of those spots. They’ve won just three of their last 13 games and were nearly swept by the Blue Jays over the weekend. Their biggest move at the trade deadline was adding Kyle Schwarber, who just recently had a groin issue pop up during his rehab for a hamstring injury. They’ve announced that Chris Sale will make his return from Tommy John surgery on Saturday, which should give their ailing rotation a shot in the arm. Still, with the Yankees and Blue Jays both hot on their tail, they’ll need a quick turn of luck to maintain their grip on a playoff spot through these last two months.

Ever since losing that big four-game series in Seattle at the end of July, the A’s have gone 8-3. Their biggest issue is the loss of Ramón Laureano, who was just suspended for 80 games for testing positive for a banned performance-enhancing substance. Their trade deadline acquisition of Starling Marte looms even larger for the A’s, who are currently leading the AL Wild Card pack. Oakland is no stranger to making their deep roster work when needed and Marte easily steps in as a capable replacement in center field. They have a pretty light schedule next week but then end the month with series against the White Sox, Giants, Mariners, and Yankees.

The Yankees have won 10 of their last 13 games and their trade deadline acquisitions of Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo have given their offense some much needed left-handed thump. Unfortunately, they’re also in the midst of a significant COVID outbreak. Rizzo joined Gerrit Cole, Jordan Montgomery, and Gary Sánchez on the COVID-19 IL yesterday. The Yankees have had to scramble to fill out their rotation, calling up Luis Gil, who was brilliant in two spot starts last week.

The Blue Jays were triumphant in their first homestand in Toronto since 2019. They went 9-2 and outscored their opponents 58-32. They’ve now surpassed the White Sox for the best run differential in the American League. But despite that great record over the last two weeks, they’ve only managed to keep pace with the A’s and Yankees and still sit in fourth place in the AL Wild Card race.

With some middling results over the last month and the Reds playing extremely well, the Padres have seen their lead in the NL Wild Card race dwindle to just 2.5 games. Their playoff odds have sat comfortably around 90% for nearly the entire season, but have fallen to 67.9% after the last couple of weeks. Fernando Tatis Jr.’s recurring shoulder issues are a huge concern, though he’s apparently made some significant progress over the weekend and could be back sooner than expected. Luckily, the Padres have a pretty light schedule ahead, with series against the Marlins, Diamondbacks, and Rockies on the docket.

The standings in the NL East have flipped upside down since the last time these power rankings ran. The Mets just finished off a stretch where they played 15 games in 14 days and went 4-11 in that time. They were just swept by the Phillies over the weekend and finally lost the grip on the division lead they had held since early May. Jacob deGrom hasn’t pitched since the All-Star break but their biggest issue has actually been their offense. They’ve scored just 3.7 runs per game in the second half. Nearly everyone in their lineup is healthy — save Francisco Lindor — and they added Javier Báez at the deadline, but they simply can’t score runs right now. They’ve seen their playoff odds fall from around 75% at the break to just 21.1% now. And things will just keep getting harder; after a series against the Nationals to start this week, the Mets play the Dodgers and Giants twice each in alternating series to wrap up the month.

Meanwhile, the Phillies have won eight straight games to take control of the NL East. They were two games under .500 when the calendar flipped over to August and now they’re in control of their own destiny. Bryce Harper is making a solid case to win the NL MVP, blasting four home runs last week and leading the team on their hot streak up the standings. Even with the additions of Kyle Gibson and Ian Kennedy, their pitching staff is still a big concern. Gibson gives them a solid third starter after Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola but the back of their rotation is largely devoid of competent arms. And while Kennedy definitely helps out their bullpen, the bridge to him is still filled with shaky relievers. They’re a flawed team but a hot streak at the right time has them two games ahead of the Braves in the division.

Speaking of, the Braves definitely foresaw the instability at the top of their division heading into the trade deadline. Despite losing Ronald Acuña Jr. for the rest of the year, Atlanta made a bunch of win-now moves to stabilize their outfield that is without Acuña and Marcell Ozuna. Jorge Soler has looked totally revitalized in a Braves uniform, collecting three home runs and nine hits in eight games for his new team. By team quality, they’re the best team out of the three contending for the top spot in the NL East.

After some stumbles following the All-Star break, the Reds have gotten hot at the right time as well. They’ve gone 10-3 over the last two weeks and have closed the gap in the NL Wild Card race to just 2.5 games. Joey Votto’s power renaissance has been a huge boost to their already potent offense and Mike Moustakas and Nick Castellanos both recently returned from the IL. Luis Castillo looks like he’s finally broken out of his early season funk and all those relievers they acquired at the trade deadline have solidified their bullpen.

The Mariners are barely holding on in the AL Wild Card race. Their success this year has been built on historically clutch performances by their offense and an excellent bullpen. But all that good luck seems to have deserted them at exactly the wrong time. They lost eight of their last 13 games with three of those losses walk-offs and seven by two runs or fewer. Jarred Kelenic has finally started to hit after a disastrous debut but that might be too little, too late for these long-shots.

This tier is filled with teams that are good enough to play spoiler down the stretch but not close enough in the standings to make any noise in the playoff races. The Cardinals acted like they were close enough to make a push for the NL Wild Card when they acquired Jon Lester and J.A. Happ prior to the trade deadline. Neither of those starters are good enough to give them the spark that pushes them into the playoff conversation, though Jack Flaherty and Miles Mikolas are making progress towards returning to the mound sooner rather than later. Still, with the bulk of their roster set to return next year, these next few months are a good test for how close they might be to contending again.

Outside of an ugly 8-19 record in April, the Tigers have posted a winning record in each month since. Had they done a bit better in that first month of the season, they could very well be in the Mariners position in the standings with a young team ready to take the next step forward. They actually scored the most runs in baseball during the month of July and started August off with a series win against the Red Sox — already playing the role of spoiler. Next season is probably a year too early to start thinking about making some serious additions to the roster, but the young core the Tigers have developed is showing plenty of pluck to end 2021.

The Rockies just wrapped up a six-game homestand where they scored 55 runs against the Cubs and Marlins. They’ve been rather tough to beat in Coors Field — they’ve posted a 38-21 record at home this year — but they only have 22 home games left on their schedule. Since June 1, they’ve been four games over .500 with a +13 run differential. Keeping Trevor Story and the rest of their veterans on their roster past the trade deadline might be nonsensical in the long run, but it does give them a chance to play spoiler against the other teams in the NL West vying for the playoffs.

There’s a pretty significant gap between the clubs in the tier above and the five bringing up the rear. These teams have their eye on the first pick of the 2022 draft and the Diamondbacks have a commanding lead right now. They also have one of the most difficult schedules over the next two months; they have multiple series against the three top teams in their division plus double dates with the Phillies and Mariners and single series against the Astros and Braves. The combined win percentage of their remaining opponents is .528, the highest remaining “strength of schedule” of any team in baseball.

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