FanGraphs Power Rankings: Opening Day 2022

Welcome back, baseball! After a prolonged offseason rife with drama and surprises, Opening Day is finally upon us. Last year, I introduced these power rankings as a way to think about all 30 teams in baseball and stack them up against each other outside the rigid structures of leagues or divisions. Nearly every major site has some form of power rankings, usually derived from whatever panel of experts each site employs. These rankings, though, are entirely data driven.

First, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-) — and weight and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. For these Opening Day power rankings, I’ve used each team’s projected stats based on their Depth Charts projections. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has OAA/RAA from Statcast available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. For just this run of rankings, I’ve used the projected fielding component of WAR that appears on our Depth Charts projections.

The surprises start at the top, with the Braves sitting ahead of the Dodgers for the top spot in the preseason rankings. You could make an argument for any of these four teams to sit atop these rankings, though, and that’s why they’re presented in tiers rather than a straight numerical order.

Despite losing Freddie Freeman, the Braves have managed to restock a significant portion of their roster in their quest to become the first repeat World Series champions since the 1998–2000 Yankees. They traded for Matt Olson and immediately signed him to an eight-year extension, giving them their long-term replacement at first base. They re-signed postseason hero Eddie Rosario and added Kenley Jansen and Collin McHugh to bolster an already deep bullpen. They’ll get Ronald Acuña Jr. and Mike Soroka back from their respective injuries sometime during the season; Marcell Ozuna will return to the roster as well. Make no mistake — even with their long-time franchise icon out of the picture after 12 seasons, the Braves are reloaded and ready to rock.

The Dodgers’ argument starts with Freeman and the four former MVPs on their roster; their record $286 million payroll has allowed them to amass huge amounts of talent. With three World Series appearances over the last five seasons and just one championship to show for it, you could view their recent dynasty as having some unfinished business despite its excellence. After all, they didn’t even win their own division last year after taking the NL West eight years in a row. Still, if they make the playoffs in 2022 — as close a certainty you’ll get in baseball these days — they’ll join the 1991–2005 Atlanta Braves and the 1995–2007 New York Yankees as the only teams in history to make the playoffs for an entire decade. That’s an incredible run of success, and they’re not letting up anytime soon.

The Yankees entered the offseason with clear needs at shortstop and first base, and in the starting rotation and yet didn’t sign any of the many big name free agents who could have filled those holes. That’s not to say their offseason was a failure. They swung a major trade with the Twins to get Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa and also re-signed Anthony Rizzo. Those additions might not have been as flashy as adding Carlos Correa or trading for Olson as some Yankees fans dreamed about, but it does give them a solid infield that should be vastly improved defensively.

The Blue Jays’ strengths are undeniable: a potent lineup that scored the third-most runs in baseball last year, and the best projected starting rotation based on our 50/50 blend of FIP and RA9. They had a fantastic offseason, adding Kevin Gausman to replace reigning AL CY Young winner Robbie Ray as well as adding to the back of their rotation with Yusei Kikuchi. They also traded for Matt Chapman, giving them a huge boost to their infield defense. They’ll have their work cut out for them in a stacked AL East, especially after missing out on the playoffs by one game last year, but their combination of young star power and big-name offseason acquisitions should get them over the hump and back into the postseason in 2022.

The Astros have a solid argument to be considered among the teams a tier above, especially after their third World Series appearance in the last five seasons. Still, the 2022 version of this AL powerhouse looks a little less potent than previous editions. The loss of Correa at shortstop looms large. Jeremy Peña has shown plenty of promise in the minors and comes in highly regarded, but he’s simply not likely to replace his production immediately or fully. Their lineup is plenty strong, though, with Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker forming a powerful quartet. On the pitching side of things, lingering elbow issues for Lance McCullers Jr. have made the depth of their rotation a question mark. Justin Verlander is back and throwing 95 mph, but he’s also 39 years old, coming off Tommy John surgery, and has tossed just six innings since 2019. The Astros are still the favorite to win the AL West, but they’re also looking just a little more vulnerable than they have in the recent past.

The addition of Trevor Story to their roster gives the Red Sox three superstars on the infield with a fantastic supporting cast led by J.D. Martinez and Alex Verdugo. Boston should have no problem scoring runs in 2022, but there’s a lack of depth in the rotation — one that got even thinner when Chris Sale fractured a rib this spring. They’ll get him and James Paxton back from injury sometime this summer, but until then, they’ll have to hope that Michael Wacha and Rich Hill can hold up the back end of the rotation.

The Brewers’ strength is unquestioned, with the best projected starting rotation in the National League. But the same question that has hung over their recent run of success remains for this squad: will they score enough runs to support their excellent pitching staff? That was Milwaukee’s focus this offseason, trading for Hunter Renfroe and signing Andrew McCutchen to supplement the lineup. Speaking of unanswered questions: Will Christian Yelich return to being the MVP-caliber player he was in 2018 and ’19, or is the seriously diminished production of the last two years his new baseline?

On paper, the White Sox are good enough to be in the second tier, but some spring injury issues have knocked them down a peg. Lance Lynn’s knee injury isn’t as serious as Garrett Crochet’s Tommy John surgery, but losing the former means Chicago will have to turn to either Vince Velasquez or Reynaldo López until Johnny Cueto is ready to go. Lynn will be back soon enough, but his injury exposes how thin Chicago’s rotation is, especially if another injury strikes. Crochet’s elbow injury, meanwhile, wouldn’t have been as big a blow to the team’s depth if it hadn’t come immediately after the White Sox traded away Craig Kimbrel. They did sign Kendall Graveman and Joe Kelly during the offseason, but without Kimbrel or Crochet, the relief corps just isn’t as deep as it could have been.

The Phillies were one of the most active teams during the offseason, signing Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to slug in the middle of their lineup and bringing in a bunch of late-inning options in the bullpen. It’s not just their new additions either. Bryson Stott (No. 34 on our Top 100) and Mickey Moniak have played their way onto the Opening Day roster and should provide some youthful excitement for a team filled with veterans. With a strong rotation led by Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, it finally seems like Philadelphia has assembled the talent to break their 10-year playoff drought.

The Padres would love to put the summer of 2021 behind them, but they just can’t escape the bad vibes that saw them win just 18 games during the last two months of the season. Losing Fernando Tatis Jr. for the first three months of the season puts them at a serious disadvantage, and they chose to make surprisingly few acquisitions over the offseason after two years of near-frenetic activity. Luke Voit was a nice pickup from the Yankees, and a last-minute trade for Sean Manaea solidified their rotation. You can see how all the talent on their roster could come together to form a contender, but the specter of their late-season collapse looms large.

The projections haven’t figured out how to handle the Rays’ brand of excessively deep roster construction. Tampa Bay won 100 games last year, and the bulk of that same roster returns in 2022. They’ll get a full season of Wander Franco and just handed the keys to another one of their top prospects in Josh Lowe after trading Austin Meadows this week. Shane Baz’s elbow injury is concerning, but Yonny Chirinos should be making a return from his own elbow injury and Corey Kluber was signed to give them a little more stability in their rotation. Even though the projections don’t see it, is there any doubt that their pitching staff will be one of the best run prevention units in all of baseball?

The Mets might have snuck into the bottom of the second tier if Jacob deGrom hadn’t gotten hurt this spring, sidelining him for the first half of the season. Luckily, New York brought in plenty of help during the offseason, spending at record levels to sign Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha, and Eduardo Escobar and also trading for Chris Bassitt. But this is also the Mets we’re talking about; anything that could go wrong probably will. Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco are both on the wrong side of 35, and the former has already dealt with some minor injuries this spring. Unlike the last two disappointing seasons, they should have enough talent to succeed without deGrom leading the rotation. But without their ace, their ceiling is just a bit lower.

The five teams in this tier have a really wide range of possible outcomes based on a variety of factors. That’s true for everyone in baseball, but the error bars for the win projections for this quintet feel particularly wide.

Any team led by Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani has the potential to be one of the best in all of baseball. That makes it all the more baffling that the Angels haven’t finished a season above .500 since 2015 and have been to the playoffs just once in the last 12 years. To support those two generational talents, the Angels focused on shoring up their biggest weakness during this stretch of frustration: their pitching staff. They signed Noah Syndergaard and Michael Lorenzen to round out their rotation and Ryan Tepera, Aaron Loup, and Archie Bradley to support Raisel Iglesias in the bullpen. If those additions can elevate the production of their pitching staff, and Trout, Ohtani, and Anthony Rendon can stay healthy, the Angels could have a shot at toppling the Astros in the AL West. That’s a lot of ifs that have to go right, though.

Like the Rays, the projection systems have no idea what to do with the Giants. They wildly outperformed their projections a year ago and then had a ton of turnover on their roster during the offseason. Gone are Gausman, Cueto, Buster Posey, Kris Bryant, Donovan Solano and a host of other role players. They did manage to re-sign Brandon Belt, Anthony DeSclafani, and Alex Wood while also adding Carlos Rodón, Alex Cobb, and Matthew Boyd to their rotation and Joc Pederson to their lineup. Plenty of their magic from last season seems sustainable even if the projection systems can’t recognize it, but it still feels like everything needs to go right, again, if they’re going to be a contender in 2022.

The Twins surprised everyone when they landed Correa as their starting shortstop. He was the biggest addition to their club, but they also traded for Sonny Gray, Gary Sánchez, and Gio Urshela, and made a last minute move for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagán. Despite all these new faces in Minnesota, the pitching staff still feels thin. A full year of Byron Buxton would be a huge boost, and the Twins have got plenty of supplemental talent in the lineup in Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, and Miguel Sanó. If they can find a few midseason upgrades for their pitching staff, or if Paddack blossoms in his new home, they could make the White Sox sweat down the stretch.

The Cardinals probably have the best shot at toppling the Brewers atop the NL Central, but their case took a blow when Jack Flaherty and Alex Reyes went down with shoulder woes. That thins out their pitching staff significantly; they’re now relying on a 40-year-old Adam Wainwright to lead the rotation and are counting on the health of Miles Mikolas, Dakota Hudson, and Jordan Hicks after that trio combined for 29 appearances over the last two years. Cardinals fans will have plenty to celebrate whether or not the team makes the playoffs; Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols have already announced that 2022 will be their last year in the majors, and Wainwright has heavily hinted at joining them in retirement after the season. It would be quite the storyline if those three franchise icons went out with one last postseason appearance.

The Marlins find themselves on even footing with the teams in this tier behind the strength of their exciting pitching staff. Sandy Alcantara, Pablo López, and Trevor Rogers are as good a 1-2-3 as you’ll find in the majors, and Jesús Luzardo has suddenly rediscovered his fastball velocity this spring. They also added Cole Sulser and Tanner Scott from the Orioles in a late-spring swap to improve a bullpen that is already sneaky good. On the offensive side of things, they added Jorge Soler, Avisaíl García, Joey Wendle, and Jacob Stallings, giving them a lineup that could be good enough to support their young pitching. Things are definitely looking up in Miami, which is probably just a step ahead of the teams in the tier below.

No team was luckier than the Mariners last year. They rode an excellent bullpen and some clutch hitting to a 90-win season but fell short of breaking their historic playoff drought by just two games. Jarred Kelenic and Logan Gilbert got their feet wet in the majors last year; now Seattle will turn to Julio Rodríguez, Matt Brash, and George Kirby to keep the youth movement going; Rodríguez and Brash made the Opening Day roster, and Kirby could soon join them. With their rebuilding phase quickly coming to an end, they traded for Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suárez, and Adam Frazier, and signed Ray to a long-term contract. Their starting rotation remains shockingly thin, especially if Brash or Kirby stumble upon their introduction to the majors. The success of their season will likely hinge on those youngsters and their ability to acclimate quickly to the big leagues.

The Guardians have a brand-new identity and just locked up the face of their franchise, José Ramírez, to a huge extension. That move alters the direction of the organization considerably. Prior to signing Ramírez, Cleveland had been inconceivably passive during the offseason, signing just a single free agent to a new major league contract (Luke Maile). Still, the Guardians’ entire Opening Day lineup and starting rotation is under 30, and there are a handful of top prospects close to graduating from their farm system. Despite all that young talent, it was rather confusing to see them refuse to even try to improve their roster from the outside. It’s a big bet on their player development group, which could pay dividends in a couple of years. This year? Probably not.

The Tigers were one of the better teams in the American League during the second half of 2021 as they started to break out of their rebuilding cycle. While the Guardians seem to be content to let their kids play in 2022, the Tigers went out and acquired a ton of talent to supplement their top prospects who are ready to graduate to the majors: Javier Báez, Eduardo Rodriguez, Meadows, and Tucker Barnhart. With Spencer Torkelson on the Opening Day roster and Riley Greene close behind him (once he heals from his spring foot injury), Detroit has loudly declared its intention to compete sooner rather than later.

No team spent more during the offseason than the Rangers — a fascinating turn after the club lost 102 games in 2021. Adding Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray, Mitch Garver, Kole Calhoun, and Brad Miller certainly lifts the ceiling of their roster, but it still remains incredibly top heavy. There just isn’t much depth behind their new stars, and their pitching staff remains a mess. There are promising arms in the system in Jack Leiter and Cole Winn, but they’re likely a few seasons away from making an impact. That makes the Rangers an interesting case study in a team trying to buy its way out of its rebuilding phase before the top prospects are ready to contribute.

Like the rest of the teams in this tier, the Royals are just oozing with young talent. Bobby Witt Jr. made the Opening Day roster, and MJ Melendez and Nick Pratto should be close behind him. Those three should give a significant boost to an offense that’s floundered since the core of the 2015 championship team was broken up. Their problem is that none of Kansas City’s young pitchers have stepped up to contribute in a big way yet. Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch, and Kris Bubic, who collectively comprise the Royals’ highly regarded first-round haul from 2018, have all made their major league debuts to varying degrees of disappointment. Maybe Zack Greinke being back in Royal blue for 2022 will help them find another level.

These two NL Central rivals feel like they’re heading in different directions despite being projected for the same win totals in 2022. The Reds made it very clear that they were looking to slash payroll this offseason, bending over backwards to frame their roster deconstruction as the beginning of a realignment, not a rebuild. Out went Gray, Castellanos, Barnhart, Winker, Suárez, Wade Miley and Amir Garrett. In came Mike Minor, Tommy Pham, Solano, and a few other role players. With Joey Votto, reigning NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India, Luis Castillo, and Tyler Mahle still on the roster, Cincinnati has some talent left, but it was a very confusing process to get to this point.

The Cubs traded away most of the core of their 2016 championship team last summer, but instead of sliding into another deep rebuilding phase, they went out and spent a bunch of money on Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki. Like the Rangers, the Cubs are hoping that they can skip a few steps in The Process by adding talent through free agency. If you squint, you can sort of see how it could work out for them, but they’ll likely come up short this season.

Even if the Nationals struggle to stay out of the NL East basement, they’ll at least be entertaining to watch. Juan Soto is one of the most electrifying young players in the game; Washington would do well to extend him and then build a winner around him again. Bringing in Nelson Cruz to be a veteran mentor was a nice touch, and Stephen Strasburg could potentially return from his Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery mid-season. There’s enough talent on the roster to be a nuisance to the other contenders in the NL East but not enough for the Nationals to be contenders themselves.

The Diamondbacks lost 110 games in a year where anything that could go wrong did. They’re bound to be better than last year, if only because it would take a disaster of a season to repeat their 2021 failures. What’s more encouraging is the top prospects who are one year closer to making their major league debuts; Alek Thomas and Corbin Carroll could both show up at some point during the season. Their presence should give fans in Arizona something to be optimistic about, even as the current roster flounders.

The A’s might have had one more competitive season with their core that won nearly 60% of their games from 2018 to ’20. The talent was evident, but ownership was clearly reluctant to spend any additional money or prospect capital to supplement the core again. Instead, they tore everything down to the studs. Olson, Chapman, Bassitt, and Manaea were all traded away this spring, and Frankie Montas will likely be sent to the highest bidder during the season. The haul of prospects they’re getting back in these trades should form the core of the next great A’s roster — hopefully right around when a new stadium on the Oakland waterfront is opening up.

Whether the anti-service time manipulation rules in the new CBA influenced many teams to carry their top prospects on their Opening Day rosters is up for debate. But if they did, the Pirates clearly didn’t get the memo after they sent Oneil Cruz to Triple-A to start the season despite an encouraging, and at times electrifying, spring. Ostensibly, they’re allowing him time to “work on his defense” since he could be moving off shortstop sooner rather than later, but he’d at least give fans in Pittsburgh something to get excited about. As it is, they’ll likely have to get excited in late May when Cruz has all of a sudden taken a big step forward defensively.

Signing Kris Bryant to launch dingers into the stratosphere in Denver’s thin air is undeniably cool and fun. Trading for Randal Grichuk to do the same is a little less cool but still fun. The problem is, hitting home runs has never really been the Rockies’ problem. They’ve assembled a surprisingly competent starting rotation given their home park, but the supporting cast for whichever stars are on their roster — be it Bryant, Story, or Nolan Arenado — just hasn’t been good enough. They also need to figure out how to solve the Coors Field hangover effect; over the last five seasons the Rockies have won 55.4% of their games at home and just 43.2% of their games on the road.

Taking home runs away in Baltimore seems like a cruel reward for fans who have been dragged through three 100-loss seasons in the last four years. The least the team could do is let the Orioles faithful have some fun at the ballpark. Regardless, there might finally be some glimmers of hope on the horizon. Adley Rutschman should make his debut as soon as he returns from his spring arm injury, and it’s possible Grayson Rodriguez could follow soon after. There have been very few things to celebrate in Baltimore recently — Trey Mancini’s comeback and Cedric Mullins’ 30–30 season being the most recent — but they’ll finally start to see the foundations of their rebuild make it to the majors this year.

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