Francisco Lindor’s Finding His Inner Mookie Betts

I spend a lot of time thinking about who could be the next Mike Trout. There’s not a good answer yet. Nobody is the next Mike Trout. Francisco Lindor is not yet as good as Mike Trout. Do not under-appreciate Mike Trout! He’s amazing. Everybody take a moment to remember how Mike Trout is the very best that there is. Okay, good, thank you for doing that.

When I think about other potential 9-WAR players, though, my default is to consider elite defenders who might suddenly add some power. Because, of course, they’d be starting from a high baseline, and how many players have we seen add considerable pop over the past few seasons? I’ve had my eye on certain guys, and it’s Lindor who’s presently catching my attention. Lindor is an elite defender. Check. He occupies a premium defensive position. Check. We know he has a steady and disciplined approach. Check. Now we could be seeing the emergence of power. Lindor is 23 years old.

I’m not writing this because I believe Lindor is about to run Trout down. Instead, I’m just writing this because I’ve had my eye on Lindor, and now he’s up to something different. He’s improving as a player, even if he’s still short of being the best player in the world. This season, Lindor has played in 25 games. As such, I’m going to embed a couple rolling-average plots, over 25-game samples. How about looking at Lindor’s hard-hit rate?

That paints a pretty clear picture — Lindor is now hitting the ball harder than ever. He finished 2016 on a promising note, and he’s picked up where he left off. I’ll note that Lindor already has seven home runs this season, after last year knocking 15. There’s something here, and as should come as little surprise, the above is linked to the pattern below. Lindor is also keeping more of his batted balls off of the ground.

Maybe you’re growing weary of reading about players trying to hit more fly balls. That would be understandable. And it’s not like Lindor is suddenly standing in either box and swinging from his heels. I don’t think Lindor is specifically hunting fly balls; rather, I think it’s more that he’s trying to avoid weakly-hit grounders, and that’s effectively the same thing. Every hitter just wants to make more good contact. Good contact is generally line-drive or air contact. Lindor might not fancy himself a power hitter, but he’s certainly unlocking a new level of power.

All right. Time for a project, using the usual information from Baseball Savant. Over the years, Lindor has slightly increased his batted-ball speed. He’s more significantly lifted his average launch angle. While all of this has been happening, Lindor has attempted to swing less often, and he’s made more consistent contact. Lindor, in short, has added power and contact, which isn’t the way this usually goes.

I wanted to look at season-by-season hitter comps to Lindor. One way of evaluating his progress is by just looking at him. Another way is by looking at the players to whom he compares. I looked at everyone who’s batted at least 500 times since 2015, and I linked the players to their swing rate, contact rate, exit velocity, and launch angle. I then used that sample to look for the closest comparisons to 2015 Lindor, 2016 Lindor, and 2017 Lindor. I developed a comp score, where a lower number reflects a stronger comp, and some of that data shows up in this table. You see the names of the individual strongest comps. You also see the average wRC+ of the group of strongest comps. That’s all complicated; the table itself feels more simple.

The most similar hitter to 2015 Francisco Lindor is Jean Segura. Now, Segura has undergone his own changes, but I just took an overall approach, and since 2015 Segura has posted a 99 wRC+. 2015 Lindor’s closest comparisons managed an average 97 wRC+, close to Segura. Lindor fairly easily exceeded that mark. Could be a reflection of skill, although it’s probably also partly luck.

The most similar hitter to 2016 Francisco Lindor is Xander Bogaerts, who, since 2015, has posted a 112 wRC+. The collection of the closest comps averaged a 103 wRC+. By Lindor’s actual results, he was a little less effective last season than he had been as a rookie. This analysis would suggest Lindor’s true talent actually inched forward. That is, if you put any stock in this analysis. I haven’t tested it much! I just find it interesting.

At last, the most similar hitter to 2017 Francisco Lindor is Mookie Betts, who, since 2015, has posted a 127 wRC+. The collection of the closest comps averaged a 114 wRC+. Lindor, again, is beating that average mark, so there’s probably something there — perhaps a function of Lindor’s speed, or perhaps a consequence of his being a switch-hitter. Lindor might truly be able to beat these averages. But Betts is a heck of a comp. While I understand Betts’ 127 wRC+ is way lower than Lindor’s current mark of 170, that 170 isn’t going to keep up. It basically can’t. Lindor, though, could only slump so much, thanks to his discipline and contact ability.

Betts wasn’t expected to turn into much of a power type, but just last year he socked 31 dingers, and he wound up with a WAR of 7.8. Compared to Lindor, he doesn’t bring the same sort of defensive value, but he’s more of an asset on the bases, so those kind of cancel out. And as I think about this comparison more and more, I love it. Betts, in the minors, seldom had a bad at-bat. The power arrived as he got deeper into his 20s. Lindor was much the same way, drawing walks without whiffing too often. Power’s coming out. Betts had his real power breakout at 23, last summer. Lindor is one year younger than Betts is. Not to over-draw the parallels, but they’re very much present. Neither Betts nor Lindor is particularly large.

I don’t think that Francisco Lindor is blossoming into a power hitter. To me, that connotes a certain profile, with more whiffs and more jaw-dropping dingers. I think that Lindor is blossoming into a better hitter, a hitter with more power than he used to have. He’s on the Mookie Betts path, making the absolute most of what he is, given his own limitations. I don’t think it would be fair to suggest that Lindor’s becoming another Mike Trout. Rather, he could settle for being the next-best thing.