Not every team shows up for spring training with a reasonable hope of winning the World Series, but there is a grand, overarching narrative to follow in every camp. For the Chicago White Sox, it’s whether they can achieve an all-Sean-and-Shane starting rotation — they’re currently 60% of the way there.

That might sound like a modest goal, but it’s a lot more ambitious than what they set out to achieve just last year: Avoid losing 120 games. Again. The White Sox will sink or swim (or at least sink more slowly) based on how their young homegrown players perform, but Chicago’s supporting cast is looking relatively OK.

All the more so after this weekend, when the White Sox made two moves: signing free agent outfielder Austin Hays to a one-year contract, and trading for Red Sox pitchers Jordan Hicks and David Sandlin. Read the rest of this entry »

I was thinking about Rob Refsnyder recently for two reasons. First, I think about Rob Refsnyder a lot. I try to be professional in this forum, but everyone has their own sports fan nemeses, and Refsnyder is one of mine.

Back in 2012, Refsnyder — then a University of Arizona Wildcat — was the Most Outstanding Player of the College World Series, in part because he went berserk in the two-game final against South Carolina: 4-for-6 with two walks and a home run. He drove in the winning run in Game 1 and scored the winning run in Game 2. My beloved Gamecocks were denied a third straight national championship and haven’t been back to Omaha since. I’ll die mad about this series, and I’ll never forgive Refsnyder in particular.

I did not, however, expect to still be writing about Refsnyder — then a punchy, athletically unremarkable second baseman — in 2026. The previous year’s College World Series MOP, Scott Wingo, was an 11th-round pick; he never came close to making the majors and has spent the past decade as a college assistant coach. (He was most recently in the news in 2024 as the Home Run Derby pitcher for Alec Bohm.) Read the rest of this entry »

The San Francisco Giants, with their unique front office leadership and unconventional manager, have gone the traditional route. “Acquire Harrison Bader” is a tried-and-true team-building strategy for a would-be contender; the former Florida Gator is on his way to his seventh organization in the past four-and-a-half years.

The Giants, unlike Bader’s previous employers, seem interested in keeping him around long enough to unpack all his furniture: Bader’s new contract is for two years and $20.5 million.

Regardless of any analysis to follow, this move makes the Giants stronger in 2026. Bader is a legitimate center fielder who’ll relieve the defensive pressure on the freshly emancipated Jung Hoo Lee (who’s stretched in center) and Heliot Ramos (who’s stretched at any position that requires him to wield a glove). Guys who can play center field comfortably and have a clue at the plate are harder to find than you’d think — especially in free agency — and the Giants got one. Read the rest of this entry »

I try not to be a stick in the mud. I really do. But I was poking around in RosterResource recently, and I saw something that gave me a headache. Edwin Díaz, who wore no. 39 with the Mariners and Mets, had to pick a new number with his new team, as the Dodgers had retired no. 39 for Hall of Fame catcher Roy Campanella.

He’s choosing no. 3. Díaz actually made his new number public back in December, but I’d missed the news. Good thing; it would’ve ruined my Christmas. Too many pitchers are wearing single-digit numbers these days, and it has to stop. Read the rest of this entry »

The stove is piping hot, my friends.

Just over 12 hours after Kyle Tucker’s bombshell signing with the Dodgers, Bo Bichette is also on the move. To the New York Mets, on a three-year, $126 million contract with opt-outs after each of the first two seasons. A shortstop throughout his career to this point, Bichette is expected to play third base for the Mets, who have a pretty solid incumbent shortstop already.

Bichette and the Dodgers had been in discussions over a short-term, high-AAV deal like the one Tucker ultimately signed, but Bichette, like most free agents, seemed to be interested in a contract with more term and overall value, but a lower annual salary. Back in August, I made a case for Bichette to cash in by pitching him as Trea Turner, but slow. And when America went to bed on Thursday, the smart money was on Bichette signing with the Phillies, who had already invested $300 million in Original Recipe Turner.

The Mets were reeling from Tucker’s rejection, amidst mortifying vagueposting from Steve Cohen. (Seriously, if you’re worth more than $500 million, you should not be allowed on social media.) But credit to Cohen and David Stearns, who suddenly found themselves with $220 million earmarked for Tucker, and no Tucker to spend that money on. They not only grabbed the next-best bat left on the market, in so doing they put a finger in the eye of their division rival. Read the rest of this entry »

I don’t know why, but I’ve spent more time thinking about the Miami Marlins than any other team this winter. It started when the Marlins came to the end of the season with a not-terrible 79-83 record — three games better than the Braves! — with some interesting pieces looking forward.

Then two Marlins showed up on my search for the next Geraldo Perdomo. Then I kind of talked myself into Miami being one lucky free agent signing from competitiveness — just like in 2002. But it turns out they’re not even making a token effort to spend. Then they traded from their surplus of pitchers to beef up their anemic lineup, which seemed like an OK compromise to make at the time even though it thinned out their greatest strength.

But then the Marlins thinned that rotation out even further, shipping Ryan Weathers to the Yankees for four prospects. So now the Marlins are in a position where Janson Junk is back in their presumptive Opening Day rotation. How fortuitous, because I’d been meaning to write about Junk for a while. Read the rest of this entry »

Things have been a little testy in Boston of late. It’s all downstream of the decision, in June, to trade — salary dump, really — Rafael Devers to San Francisco. I won’t relitigate the blow-by-blow, but Boston had just made the opportunistic signing of Alex Bregman and anointed Kristian Campbell as their second baseman of the future. Coupled with Trevor Story’s return to decentness after two years lost to injury, to say nothing of Marcelo Mayer’s rapid development, that left the Sox with more infielders than they could use.

Now, having seen what’s happened to Devers’ in-zone contact rate over the past two seasons, I think in the long run Red Sox fans will be happy they don’t have to watch the last eight and a half years of his contract up close. But for now, everyone’s nerves are a still a little raw. It’s always tough parting with a homegrown superstar, but the player Boston seemingly chose over Devers is quite good himself… oh wait, Bregman opted out of the last two years of his contract and signed with the Cubs. Read the rest of this entry »

The St. Louis Cardinals, or what’s left of them, have traded third baseman Nolan Arenado and cash to the Arizona Diamondbacks for right-handed pitcher Jack Martinez.

Arenado was one of the best players of the 2010s, a three-time National League home run champ and an elite defensive third baseman. In eight seasons with the Rockies, Arenado made five All-Star teams and finished in the top eight in MVP voting five times. He made the All-Star team and pulled off the Gold Glove-Silver Slugger double every season from 2015 to 2018.

On the strength of those performances, the Rockies signed Arenado to one of the richest contracts in baseball history — nine years, $275 million. After two years, they shipped him to St. Louis, where the Cardinals lived out the bargain of the quarter-billion-dollar extension: A couple great seasons, followed by gradual decline and now decrepitude, all before the deal runs out. Read the rest of this entry »

Over the weekend, the Chicago Cubs made the splashiest headlines of the new year by signing Alex Bregman — three-time All-Star, two-time top-five MVP finisher, and 2017 World Series champion — to a five-year, $175 million contract. It’s the second-richest contract signed this offseason in terms of total sticker price, and even after accounting for significant deferrals, it’s the second-highest AAV of any contract signed so far this winter.

I don’t want to rehash too much of what Davy Andrews covered in his writeup, but it’s an interesting move to be sure. The Cubs weren’t exactly hard-up for infield help, with Matt Shaw, Dansby Swanson, and Nico Hoerner (from left to right) occupying the three positions Bregman might conceivably occupy. Hoerner’s in his last year of team control, and you might argue that Shaw — my preseason pick for NL Rookie of the Year — disappointed a little in 2025. (I think a 93 wRC+ and 1.5 WAR in 126 games is perfectly OK for a rookie third baseman, though Bregman would likely represent a significant upgrade.)

But for the time being, both incumbents remain in the Cubs organization, leaving a bit of a logjam for manager Craig Counsell to sort out. Nevertheless, I know what the Cubs’ next move should be: Signing Brendan Rodgers. Read the rest of this entry »

Nobody’s having more fun this offseason than the Toronto Blue Jays, who celebrated their first pennant in 32 years (and near-miss at winning the World Series) by rearming and getting back into the fight. Midseason acquisition Shane Bieber re-committed for pennies on the dollar, and Toronto supplemented its rotation by landing the top free agent pitcher on the market, Dylan Cease, as well as KBO breakout star Cody Ponce.

The Jays then kicked January off by reaching back into the international market to purchase third baseman Kazuma Okamoto from the Yomiuri Giants of NPB. The Jays are already up to third in projected 2026 payroll, at least for now; the Phillies and Yankees are fourth and fifth, and both of those clubs have some rounding out of the roster to do before spring training.

Except apparently the Jays might not be done either. Read the rest of this entry »