All winter, it’s been pretty clear that the Tigers needed another outfielder, and with an apparently soft market for Yoenis Cespedes and Justin Upton, it seemed perfectly logical for the Tigers to jump in and make a play for one of the better remaining players on the market. After all, this is a win-now team that threw $110 million at a good-not-great starter at the start of the off-season, and has a core of quality players who aren’t getting any younger; leaving a gaping hole in the outfield for the sake of cost effectiveness, at this point, was a strange proposition.

Apparently the Tigers now agree, and look like they’re going to be the landing spot for Justin Upton.

Sources: Upton six-year deal with #Tigers expected to be in $125M range. Agreed upon in principal, per @BNightengale.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 19, 2016

The crowd projected Upton for 6/$120M before the off-season, while I came in at 7/$140M, so the price seems right in line with what was presumed to be reasonable before the market looked to have softened. Given that Chris Davis and Ian Kennedy — also presumed to be dealing with little leverage — also landed larger than expected contracts in recent days, it may be time to stop assuming that the remaining free agents are going to have to take big discounts to get a long-term deal at this point. There’s clearly still plenty of money hanging around.

For the Tigers, Upton is a significant upgrade, even though he’s also more of a good player than a great one. If he can retain some of his non-offensive value as he ages, this contract should turn out okay for Detroit. It’s not any kind of steal, but it’s a good player at a reasonable price for a team that needed win-now production and probably shouldn’t be too concerned with their long-term future. The inevitable crash is coming to Detroit in a few years, and at this point, the only question is if they can get a title out of this roster before it happens. Adding Justin Upton to the 2016 roster makes that more likely.

Earlier this afternoon, FanGraphs CEO and founder David Appelman announced that the ballots for the 2016 FAN Projections are now available for the tender ministrations of this site’s readership. With a view to ensuring that all notable players are addressed sufficiently — and also towards producing the number of posts he’s required to publish each week — the present author is highlighting certain players whose ballots are of some particular interest.

Before casting a ballot, don’t forget this note from Appelman’s announcement post:

Please note that everything this year is a rate stat. You’re projecting 2B+3B, HR, SB, and Fielding as a measure of 150 games (basically a full season). The player’s previous stats are shown per 150 games in the projection ballot too. This will make changing playing time projections much easier as you’ll only have to change the games played portion.

Now, here are’s a small collection of players for the reader’s consideration — the five players, among those who’ve received fewer than five FAN Projection ballots, to have recorded the top defensive-run totals over the last three years. Note: listed age is for 2016.

Player: Zack Cozart, 30, SS (Profile)
2015 Line: 214 PA, .258/.310/.459, 6.5% BB, 13.6% K, 104 wRC+ at MLB
Notes: Recorded highest walk rate, lowest strikeout rate, and highest isolated-power figure of career in 2015 before suffering season-ending knee injury in June. Is expected to return to 100% fitness for spring training. Might have some competition in form of Eugenio Suarez, who produced 105 wRC+ over roughly 400 plate appearances in Cozart’s absence.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday afternoon, FanGraphs CEO and founder David Appelman announced that the ballots for the 2016 FAN Projections are now available for the tender ministrations of this site’s readership. With a view to ensuring that all notable players are addressed sufficiently — and also towards producing the number of posts he’s required to publish each week — the present author is highlighting certain players whose ballots are of some particular interest.

Before casting a ballot, don’t forget this note from Appelman’s announcement post:

Please note that everything this year is a rate stat. You’re projecting 2B+3B, HR, SB, and Fielding as a measure of 150 games (basically a full season). The player’s previous stats are shown per 150 games in the projection ballot too. This will make changing playing time projections much easier as you’ll only have to change the games played portion.

Now, here are five players for the reader’s consideration — all of whom missed all or part of 2015 due to a Tommy John procedure. Note: listed age is for 2016.

Player: Homer Bailey, 30, RHP (Profile)
2015 Line: 11.1 IP, 2.38 K/9, 3.18 BB/9, 2.38 HR/9, 7.10 FIP at MLB
Notes: After producing eight-plus wins in previous three seasons, began 2015 campaign on disabled list. Proceeded to record two April starts in which fastball measured roughly 3 mph lower than 2013-14 average. Underwent Tommy John procedure in early May. Expected to return in May of 2016.

Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier this afternoon, FanGraphs CEO and founder David Appelman announced that the ballots for the 2016 FAN Projections are now available for the tender ministrations of this site’s readership. With a view to ensuring that all notable players are addressed sufficiently — and also towards producing the number of posts he’s required to publish each week — the present author is highlighting certain players whose ballots are of some particular interest.

Before casting a ballot, don’t forget this note from Appelman’s announcement post:

Please note that everything this year is a rate stat. You’re projecting 2B+3B, HR, SB, and Fielding as a measure of 150 games (basically a full season). The player’s previous stats are shown per 150 games in the projection ballot too. This will make changing playing time projections much easier as you’ll only have to change the games played portion.

Now, here are five players for the reader’s consideration — the five, in fact, who produced the top WAR figures in 2015 among rookie-eligible position players. Note: listed age is for 2016.

Player: Kris Bryant, 24, 3B (Profile)
2015 Line: 650 PA, .275/.369/.488, 11.8% BB, 30.6% K, 136 wRC+ at MLB
Notes: Recorded top WAR mark among all 2015 rookies after consecutive seasons of unambiguously strong performances in minor leagues. Compensated for high strikeout rate with above-average walk rate and power on contact. Produced over 14 runs by means of baserunning and defense, according to FanGraphs’ methodology for measuring both.

Read the rest of this entry »

The free agent market is still moving pretty slowly for hitters, but another pitcher has gone off the board, as the Marlins have agreed to terms with Wei-Yin Chen, according to Jon Heyman and others.

chen gets 2-year opt out with $80M deal, and 6th yr vesting option that could make it $96M #marlins

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 12, 2016

Hey, look, another opt-out, and in this case, a more interesting one than usual, because the Marlins have heavily backloaded the deal, as they always do. Chen will get just $20 million in the first two years of the contract, so his opt-out decision will be 3/$60M in guaranteed money after the 2017 season, which makes this one a a bit less likely to be used than some of the others signed this winter. Chen could certainly pitch well enough to get more than that in two years time, but given the attrition rate of pitchers, the more likely scenario is that he ends up choosing to stick with the full guaranteed years.

By backloading the deal, the Marlins make the opt-out less valuable for Chen, and in the scenarios where he pitches well, this could be a pretty nice deal for Miami; surrender a second round pick to sign a quality pitcher, get two good years for $20 million, then potentially get a draft pick as compensation (if that still exists in a few years) if he opts-out. In this scenario, the opt-out is less bad for the Marlins than it is for most teams who have handed them out this winter.

Chen’s deal fits in with Mike Leake and Jeff Samardzija at the top end of the mid-tier starting pitcher market, but I think I’d prefer Chen to the other two in terms of pitchers. The opt-out and the loss of the pick means that Chen did cost more than Leake — even with the same $80 million over five years in guaranteed money — but I think I’d probably still take this deal over the other two. For the Marlins, this looks like a pretty decent free agent value.

Position: St. Louis Cardinals Baseball Operations Fellowship

Location: Jupiter, Fla.

Description:
The St. Louis Cardinals baseball club is seeking candidates for a new Baseball Operations Fellowship position to be based out of the Jupiter, FL complex. The Fellowship position runs from early 2016 through December 31, 2016. It is a full-time position eligible for insurance consistent with a typical Cardinals full-time employee. Fellows will be compensated based on an hourly rate of pay competitive with similar entry level positions in baseball. This Fellowship position will be a one-year opportunity – Fellows will not return in the same position in 2017. At the end of the Fellowship, the Cardinals and Fellow will jointly determine if there is an appropriate opportunity for full-time employment within the Cardinals.

The Fellowship position is designed to provide entry-level baseball executives with an opportunity to gain experience mainly in the International and Player Development departments at the home of the Cardinals’ Spring Training, Extended Spring Training, Gulf Coast, Florida State, and Fall Instructional Leagues. While working at the direction of the Jupiter-based Directors of the International/Player Development departments, the Fellow will also provide occasional support to the St. Louis front office. This includes projects as called upon by senior leadership of Amateur Scouting, Baseball Development, and the General Manager’s office.

Responsibilities will be driven mostly by baseball activity taking place at the Jupiter complex and will be closely tied to interaction with Minor League players, many of which are international and require assistance in a foreign country. Native-level Spanish fluency is ideal with a high degree of proficiency as the minimum requirement. Duties will include, among others, language translation, assisting on-field personnel with daily planning, supporting recently drafted players upon signing, maintenance of international scouting video, and organization of player immigration documents. Training will be provided for any scouting responsibilities associated with the role.

This is an exciting opportunity for entry-level people passionate about baseball and willing to start in a highly dynamic environment. The ideal candidate will have demonstrated a strong work ethic, deep enthusiasm for international baseball, and high intellect to quickly adapt and implement on the go. The Fellowship will provide such a candidate with a broad range of experiences across Baseball Operations and the possibility of full-time employment.

Responsibilities:

• Support Player Development Director with daily logistical player activity at Jupiter, FL complex.
• Support International Ops department with analysis of foreign markets and scouting system data entry.
• Support International/Player Development Directors in daily operation of departments.
• Assist coaches and players with language translation at various meetings and team events.
• Support St. Louis front office with projects as called upon by Amateur Scouting, Baseball Development, GM Office.
• Communicate effectively with baseball operations staff.

Qualifications:

• Bachelor’s degree.
• Strong work ethic and initiative, demonstrated passion for baseball, good communication skills and ability to work effectively within team environment.
• Read, write, and speak Spanish.
• Experience and proficiency in Microsoft Office (Excel, PowerPoint and Word).
• Preferred candidates will have some experience around athletes either as player, coach, manager, SID, etc.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
Interested applicants should email their resume with a cover letter and references to jupiterfellowship@cardinals.com by Friday, January 15th.

Position: Baseball Info Solutions Research and Development Internships

Location: Coplay, Pa.

Description:
Baseball Info Solutions is looking for candidates to fill a paid internship in our R&D Department in the spring and summer seasons. Ideally, the candidate will be available in early February through the baseball season, but summer-only intern candidates will be considered as well. The intern will work out of our office near Allentown, PA and will assist our R&D team, supporting research for publications and future products. Recent R&D interns have landed internships and full-time jobs with major league teams.

Responsibilities:
The position requires a variety of skills including (but not limited to) an analytical mind, computer expertise, writing ability, and a passion for baseball.

Qualifications:
The ideal candidate will possess:

• Familiarity with contemporary baseball/sports analytics and research.
• Analytical/Mathematical ability.
• Proficiency working in Microsoft Office programs (or equivalents), especially Excel.
• Experience with MySQL, SQL Server, or similar databases.
• An ability to write and communicate effectively with a variety of audiences.
• An ability to work both collaboratively and independently.
• Experience with other statistical packages (e.g. R), programming languages (e.g. Python, .NET), and/or graphical visualizations (e.g. Tableau) would be a plus.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
For more information or to apply, please submit your resume and cover letter to Carol Olsen at careers@baseballinfosolutions.com.

The free agent outfield logjam may be starting to break. This morning, Alex Gordon agreed to a four year, $72 million deal to return to Kansas City. This is significantly less than both I (4/$92M) and the crowd (5/$90M) estimated at the start of the off-season, and given the prices inferior players have been commanding, this is probably one of the best value signings of the winter. It will be interesting to see if reports come out stating that Gordon turned down higher offers to stay in Kansas City.

Given his health risks and concerns about how much defensive value he’ll retain as he heads into his mid-30s, plus the fact that he was tied to draft pick compensation, there are some potential risks here, but at just $18 million per year, the Royals don’t really need Gordon to perform at previous levels in order to justify the contract. Steamer projects Gordon as a +3.5 WAR player in 2016, and if you start with that assessment and run it through the normal contract assumptions, you get $94 million in estimated value over the next four years. Even setting the aging curve to a more aggressive decline only pushes him down to $80 million if he is as good as Steamer expects.

ZIPS was slightly less aggressive, but even going with that forecast, Gordon’s worth $80 million over four years if he ages normally, and $67 million if he ages poorly. Because of his age and his defense-based value, Gordon may very well end up significantly overpaid by years three and four of this deal, but he’s also dramatically underpaid at the beginning of the deal, especially if he’s the +3.5 WAR guy that Steamer projects for 2016.

With Gordon off the market, the pursuits of Justin Upton and Yoenis Cespedes should become a little more clear. The Royals weren’t likely to be players for either of those two, so Gordon going back to KC is probably good news for both of those players.

The headline is similar to some from a month ago, except that time it was the Los Angeles Dodgers that had been in talks to trade for Aroldis Chapman. That deal fell through after troubling reports surfaced indicating Chapman was under investigation for domestic violence and assualt. While those reports prevented a deal from taking place at the time, they apparently have not kept all teams away, as the Yankees have acquired Chapman from the Reds for prospects, as first reported by Jack Curry.

The Reds haul for Chapman is set to include Eric Jagielo, Rookie Davis, Caleb Cotham, and Tony Renda, per Joel Sherman. The Yankees appear to have acquired Chapman without giving up any of their very best prospects. Davis, a right-handed starter who reached Double-A last season, was ranked sixth by Baseball America in their latest edition of Yankees’ prospects, but none of the other players made the Top Ten. There is some discrepancy in their value as MLB.com lists Jagielo, a 23-year-old third baseman, sixth and Davis 10th among Yankees’ prospects. Neither Coltham nor Renda appear on MLB.com’s list of top 30 Yankees’ prospects.

Chapman has long been one of the very best, if not the best reliever in baseball. He has struck out more than 40% of hitters in each of the last four seasons. His career FIP is 1.97 that goes nicely with a 2.17 ERA. He posts the WAR numbers of an above-average starter despite pitching one-third the amount of innings. The Yankees could keep Chapman, Dellin Betances, and Andrew Miller and have a ridiculously good bullpen, or they could turn around and trade Miller for players likely better than the ones they gave up to get Chapman.

A month ago, it was not quite clear what the Dodgers would have given up to get Chapman. Given that none of the prospects the Yankees are giving up were in Kiley McDaniel’s preseason Top 200 list, and none appeared in the mid-season update either, the Dodgers package likely would have exceeded the players the Reds are currently receiving. While the trades for Craig Kimbrel and Ken Giles involved multiple seasons of team control, this package appears significantly lighter than other trades for closers this offseason.

Chapman was involved in an alleged assault of his girlfriend that included firing multiple gunshots in his garage. MLB is currently investigating Chapman under its new domestic violence policy and there is a possibility that Chapman could be suspended for significant time next season. No player has yet been suspended under the new policy so no precedent exists to predict how long Chapman could be out. While Chapman was not arrested, an arrest is not necessary for a suspension under the new policy which gives the Commissioner discretion.

Chapman was set to be eligible for free agency after next season, but if he receives a lengthy suspension, free agency could be delayed by a year if he loses enough service time. After Chapman’s arrest, his trade value, or at least the number of suitors, has appeared to decline. The Yankees gave up some decent, but not great prospects for a reliever with considerable questions, both of character as well as the ability to stay on the field given his alleged transgressions. A month ago, this might have looked like a great trade. Now, it is much more difficult to tell.

In recent years, MLB.TV has been something of an all-or-nothing service for baseball fans. Rather than offer single-game or single-team packages, Major League Baseball’s internet streaming service has instead allowed fans only to purchase a league-wide subscription giving them access to all 30 teams’ games.

While such an all-inclusive package is great for die-hard baseball fans, it may be viewed as a tad bit excessive for those who want to watch only their favorite team’s games. Fortunately for these fans, it appears that MLB is planning to offer additional MLB.TV purchase options in 2016.

Specifically, in a recent court-filing in the Garber v. Office of the Commissioner of Baseball lawsuit – in which the plaintiffs are challenging various MLB broadcasting practices under federal antitrust law – MLB’s lawyers have indicated that changes are in store for MLB.TV in the coming year. As the league’s attorneys explain on Page 9 of the document available here:

“beginning next season MLB will make single-team, out-of-market streams available for purchase (alongside the out-of-market package) on MLB.TV.”

It’s not immediately clear if this means that fans will be able to purchase a season-long subscription giving them access to all of a single team’s games, or if MLB will instead be reintroducing a single-game purchase option for fans (MLB.TV allowed you to purchase single game plans when the service originally debuted more than a decade ago). However, considering that both the NBA and NHL have recently created season-long, single-team streaming packages for their fans, it would seem likely that MLB intends to do the same in 2016.

Of course, it remains to be seen just how much MLB plans to charge for a single-team streaming service. In the NHL’s case, a single-team package costs only about $25 less than the league-wide package. If MLB adopts a similar pricing model, then many fans may still decide to shell out a few more bucks to get access to all 30 MLB teams’ games.

And, as the statement by MLB’s attorneys note, this new option will be available only for out-of-market fans, so fans will still have to contend with MLB’s blackout restrictions before being able to enjoy any of MLB.TV’s new purchase options.

But still, for those who wish only to watch a single out-of-market team’s games, and who have desired a cheaper MLB.TV streaming option, it appears that you’ll be in luck in 2016.