In the days since we first caught wind of the Ken Giles trade, we’ve learned of a few players who weren’t previously thought to be included. For one, the Astros sent pitching prospect Mark Appel to Philly, rather than outfield prospect Derek Fisher. Additionally, the two teams also swapped Arauzess: Middle infield prospect Jonathan Arauz is headed to Houston, while pitching prospect Harold Arauz goes to Philly. Although they share a last name, and happened to be in the same trade, the two are unrelated. Baseball can be weird sometimes. Anyway, here’s what KATOH thinks of these prospects. Note that WAR figures represent projected WAR through the player’s age-28 season based on 2015 minor-league stats.

Jonathan Arauz, 3.9 WAR (Profile)

The Phillies signed Jonathan Arauz out of Panama with a $600,000 bonus in the summer of 2014. Although he didn’t turn 17 until August, the Phillies brought Arauz stateside to start his pro career, and he didn’t embarrass himself. He hit .254/.309/.370 in 44 games while splitting time between second base and shortstop.

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Last year, one of the worst second-half pitchers in baseball was Jeff Samardzija. There wasn’t really a drop-off in his stuff, though, so the Giants saw enough to sign him to a big free-agent contract. Another pitcher who struggled in the second half, a bit more famously, was Johnny Cueto, but again, the Giants saw enough to now sign him to a big free-agent contract, too:

Johnny Cueto’s deal with #SFGiants is for six years and $130M with an opt out after 2 years.

— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) December 14, 2015

In Nashville, I was talking to someone in a front office, and we discussed whether Cueto would end up with more than the Diamondbacks were said to have offered him. The word is that Cueto turned down six years and something around $120 million from Arizona. The Giants are giving him a little more, and an opt-out, so Cueto’s clearly doing fine. It’s a bigger deal, in a more pitcher-friendly environment. As risky as Cueto might seem, Jordan Zimmermann might have no fewer red flags, and he got five years and $110 million. Cueto deserves the extra season.

Cueto is obviously a tough nut to crack. People don’t love his durability, but he’s cleared 450 innings the last two seasons. He comes off as a higher-maintenance sort, but his results have mostly been outstanding, and he recently worked that World Series complete game. You don’t want to believe too much in the playoff-redemption narrative — Cueto had 10 walks, 19 strikeouts, and a 5.40 ERA. But the Giants aren’t signing Cueto because of his time in Kansas City. They’re signing him because of what he did with Cincinnati, and San Francisco should provide a favorable environment. What teams care about is run prevention, and Cueto has prevented runs better than the majority of starting pitchers for the last several years.

We’ll see if he continues to beat his peripherals. Over the last six years, between the ages of 24 – 29, Cueto’s ERA- has been better than his FIP- by 15 points. Here are the biggest such differences over the last 50 years, within that age window:

• Jim Palmer, 18 points
• Johnny Cueto, 15
• Dave Stieb, 15
• Catfish Hunter, 14
• Mike Torrez, 14
• Barry Zito, 14

From age-30 on, Palmer had a difference of 15 points. Stieb, 8 points. Hunter, 4 points. Torrez, -3 points. Zito, -3 points. So that’s not super encouraging, nor is the simple presence of Zito, who has some Cueto parallels. It’s a name that sends shivers.

But Johnny Cueto isn’t Barry Zito. Johnny Cueto isn’t anyone but Johnny Cueto, and last year his stuff didn’t fall apart, and he was awesome in the National League. Now he returns to the National League, with a good team and a good coaching staff in a friendly environment. The Giants recognize and accept the risk in the pitchers they’ve signed. Higher risk doesn’t mean a higher chance of this being a mistake, necessarily. It’s just about big upside and big downside. Presented the option of going big or going home, the Giants have leaped at the chance for the former.

Well, it seems like the Cubs have won the Jason Heyward sweepstakes.

Multiple sources indicate Heyward has indeed chosen Cubs over Cards, Nats.

— Gordon Wittenmyer (@GDubCub) December 11, 2015

BREAKING: Heyward has decision. Told now it's #Cubs. Source earlier told PD #Cardinals alerted they're out. https://t.co/8gMFYljxEc Updated

— Derrick Goold (@dgoold) December 11, 2015

Cubs are believed to have gotten heyward for less than $200M. Apparently taking less to be at addison and clark. @GDubCub 1st

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) December 11, 2015

At “less than $200 million”, as Heyman reported, I’m guessing the deal will end up at $192 million over eight years, or something in that range. He’ll almost certainly have an opt-out, probably after the third or fourth year. We should find out official terms soon, but one thing looks like a safe bet: the 2016 Cubs are going to be the pre-season favorites to win the NL Central.

Welp, so much for that. A few hours after I wrote that the Cardinals were the best fit for Jason Heyward among the three finalists, Ken Rosenthal suggests that he won’t be going back to St. Louis after all.

#STLCards out on Heyward, sources tell me and @jonmorosi. @dgoold had indicated they no longer were in play.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 11, 2015

That leaves the Cubs and Nationals, assuming there isn’t a second mystery team. And between those two options, I’d expect Heyward to go to the Cubs, though of course, I just linked to a reason why you shouldn’t put too much faith in my expectations of these things. If it is the Cubs, then it will be fascinating to see if they really want to roll with a Schwarber-Heyward-Soler outfield, or if signing Heyward opens the door to a trade of Soler for a center fielder.

Stay tuned!

On Wednesday night, the Astros acquired lights-out reliever Ken Giles from the Phillies in exchange for Vincent Velasquez, Brett Oberholtzer, Thomas Eshelman and outfield prospect Derek Fisher. Velasquez and Oberholtzer both pitched a substantial number of big league innings the last couple of years, and since KATOH’s only built for minor league stats, they fall a bit outside of my jurisdiction. I wrote about Velasquez when he was called up in June. Eshelman was the Astros’ second-round pick, and threw all of just 10 professional innings after signing. That’s not nearly enough to formulate a meaningful projection.

That leaves me with Derek Fisher — a toolsy outfielder who’s coming off of a 20-30 season in A-Ball. A 2014 supplemental first round pick, Fisher slashed .274/.364/.481 between Low-A and High-A last last year. His power is his most redeeming quality, as he posted ISOs north of .200 at both stops. The downside was that he struck out in 23% of his trips to the plate. A strikeout rate that high is a huge detractor for a guy in the low minors. KATOH projects Fisher for 2.6 WAR through age-28, which makes him roughly a back-end top-200 prospect.

Fisher’s upside is tantalizing. Last winter, Kiley McDaniel gave his raw power and speed grades of 60 and 65, respectively, making him one of the toolsiest players out there. But the 6-foot-3 slugger will need to work on making more contact at the higher levels. While he’s made it work in the low minors, low-contact hitters often sputter against better pitching. Here are his Mahalanobis comps.

Fisher’s statistical comps are riddled with toolsy players who fizzled in the high minors, from Dave Krynzel to Rod Smith to Dee Brown. On the bright side, players like Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa made enough contact to make it work. Fisher’s a boom or bust prospect, whose ultimate future will likely depend on whether he makes enough contact to leverage his impressive power.

Position: Milwaukee Brewers Baseball Research & Development Intern

Location: Milwaukee

Description:

The Milwaukee Brewers are currently seeking an Intern in the Baseball Research and Development Department. The Intern will work with the Baseball R&D, Baseball Systems departments and the entire Baseball Operations Department to deliver research and tools to improve decision making. The position requires a person who has intellectual curiosity, is a self-starter and can communicate technical and analytical concepts effectively to non-technical people. Being passionate about using data, analysis and technology to improve decision making processes is also a key differentiator. Reasonable accommodations may be made to enable individuals with disabilities to perform the essential functions. Business hours are Monday – Friday 9am – 5pm, however, candidates must be capable of working extended hours such as overtime, nights, and weekends, when necessary.

Responsibilities:

• Work with Baseball R&D and Baseball Operations to understand analytical needs and implement best practices for meeting those needs.
• Investigate emerging data sources and identify potential for predictive value and actionable insights to improve decision making.
• Develop visualizations and other mechanisms for disseminating analytical results to Baseball Operations, including consideration for less technically and analytically inclined consumers.
• Continually survey latest analytical methods and advancements in Baseball Research to apply cutting edge methods and data to problems.
• Understand current decision processes and information systems and offer enhancements and improvements.
• Ad-hoc requests for reports, visualizations and research projects during the year.

Qualifications:

• Proficiency with an analytical software platform required, R or Mathematica preferred.
• Proficiency with SQL and SQL databases required, Microsoft SQL preferred.
• Proficiency with data scripting language or ETL environment (Python, PERL, SSIS, etc.) desired.
• Proficiency with C# desired.
• Bachelor’s degree (B.S./B.A.) in Computer Science, Mathematics, Statistics, Operations Research, or related field from four-year college or university. Advanced degree or current pursuit of advanced degree in one of the areas mentioned above or a related field is desirable.
• Knowledge of Microsoft office software including Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Access, Outlook, and Internet Explorer.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
Please apply here.

The Los Angeles Angels have made a trade with the Washington Nationals to bring Yunel Escobar to the Angels in exchange for reliever Trevor Gott. The potential for a deal was first reported by Jon Morosi while the deal was confirmed by Jon Heyman and Mike DiGiovanna.

Escobar is a well-traveled individual. The Angels will be the sixth team in the last seven years for Escobar, eight if counting teams he never actually suited up with. He played the first three and a half seasons of his major league career with the Braves before the carousel began. The transactions for Escobar since 2010 are as follows:

• In July 2010, along with Jo-Jo Reyes, traded to the Toronto Blue Jays for Tyler Pastornicky, Alex Gonzalez and Tim Collins.
• In November 2012, along with Jeff Mathis, Jake Marisnick, Adeiny Hechavarria, Anthony DeSclafani, and Henderson Alvarez, traded to the Miami Marlins for Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, John Buck, and Emilio Bonifacio.
• Less than a month later, traded to the Tampa Bay Rays for Derek Dietrich.
• In January 2015, along with Ben Zobrist, traded to the Oakland Athletics for John Jaso, Daniel Robertson, and Boog Powell.
• Less than a week later, traded to the Washington Nationals for Tyler Clippard.
• Today, traded to the Los Angeles Angels for Trevor Gott.

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As you’ve certainly heard by now, the Diamondbacks swung a deal for Shelby Miller (and Gabe Speier) on Wednesday night. The trade gives the D-Backs another bona-fide starter to slot behind the recently signed Zack Greinke. The more controversial story, though, is the size of the package given up by Arizona in the deal: Aaron Blair, Ender Inciarte, and oh yeah, Dansby Swanson. In what follows, I provide a stats-driven look at the prospects involved in the trade using my KATOH projection system.

Dansby Swanson (Profile)

As last year’s first overall pick, Swanson is easily the centerpiece of the trio headed to Atlanta. Unfortunately, he logged just 99 plate appearances after signing, which isn’t enough data for me to formulate a meaningful KATOH projection. I will note, though, that Swanson hit the snot out of the ball in those 99 plate appearances. He posted equal strikeout and walk numbers with good power, which yielded a .289/.394/.483 slash line. KATOH will likely pick up on these strong suits next year, once Swanson gives me a bit more data with to work. As a shortstop, Swanson’s level of offensive ability is exciting, and there’s no reason to think he won’t develop into an excellent player. As a point of reference, consider that Andrew Benintendi put up numbers not unlike Swanson’s in his pro debut this year, and is projected for 7.0 WAR through age-28. These two players have their differences, of course, but this should give you a loose benchmark of how Swanson may grade out once he has more playing time under his belt.

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For the second straight season, the Houston Astros have prioritized bolstering their bullpen. Last year, the club signed Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek. This winter, the team has already completed a trade for the Philadelphia Phillies bullpen ace in Ken Giles. Today, the Astros secured a piece of their playoff club long-term, bringing back Tony Sipp, as first reported by Evan Drellich. Ken Rosenthal filled in the details as Sipp’s deal is for three years and $18 million for the lefty.

Sipp spent the first five years of his career as a roughly replacement-level reliever for the Indians and Diamondbacks before catching on with Houston during the 2014 season. Since coming to the Astros, he has pitched very well, striking out roughly 30% of batters and sporting an identical 2.93 FIP in each of the last two seasons. Sipp had a ridiculous 88 left-on-base percentage last season that drove his ERA under two, and while that feat is unlikely to be matched next season, Sipp is still a good bet to keep producing. Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier today, the Mets acquired second baseman Neil Walker from the Pirates for Jon Niese, seemingly filling out their infield. Apparently they weren’t done, though, as they’ve now signed middle infielder Asdrubal Cabrera to a two-year deal, as first reported by Chris Cotillo.

Cabrera will earn $18.5 million over two seasons with a club option for a third year, and our contract crowdsourcing project had him pegged for $27 million over three years — similar AAV, but an extra guaranteed year.

After two slightly below league average seasons at the plate in 2013 and 2014, Cabrera was again above league average last year, which is valuable for someone who can play shortstop. Thing is, it’s no guarantee Cabrera is any better at the plate than Wilmer Flores — Steamer’s 2016 projections actually prefer Flores — and it might be a stretch to consider Cabrera a shortstop anyway.

Over the last three seasons, Cabrera has been baseball’s worst defensive shortstop by DRS (-30), baseball’s worst defensive shortstop by UZR (-25), and second-worst defensive shortstop by FRAA (-18). Flores has never been trusted at short by scouts and the metrics have seen him as below-average in a still-small sample, and the newly-acquired Walker is average, at best, at second base. Lest we forget Ruben Tejada, who also graded out among the league’s worst defensive shortstops this year, despite a generally solid defensive reputation. The Mets infield defense was exposed as a liability on the national stage in the World Series, and yet it doesn’t look like they made it a priority to improve that area at all for the upcoming season.

The surplus of infield depth seems to indicate that the Mets aren’t optimistic about David Wright’s chances of playing a full season at third base. Flores will likely see time at both shortstop and second, Cabrera will see time at both middle infield positions, and Walker could even play third base in a pinch, though he last appeared at the hot corner in 2010.

It’s possible that the addition of Cabrera, alongside Walker, opens up the possibility of Flores being shopped as a trade chip. We all remember the infamous non-trade of Flores at the deadline this year. On the other hand, it’s possible the Mets are just stocking up on depth early as opposed to later, so they don’t have to trade for Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe midseason again. Too much depth isn’t a bad thing, but the collection of infielders the Mets have assembled and their somewhat similar skillsets makes for a bit of an odd family.