The Angels and Braves swung a trade last night that sent Andrelton Simmons and catching prospect Jose Briceno to LA in exchange for Erick Aybar and pitching prospects Sean Newcomb and Chris Ellis. Jeff Sullivan had some thoughts on the trade itself last night. KATOH has some thoughts on the prospects involved, which you can find below.

Sean Newcomb, 1.9 WAR

The Angels selected Newcomb with their first round pick in 2014, and he’s been a strikeout machine in the minors thus far. He split the 2015 season between three levels — Low-A, High-A and Double-A — and pitched well at each stop. All told, he finished up with 2.36 ERA and a 29% strikeout rate. However, those strikeouts came with a heavy dose of walks.

Read the rest of this entry »

UPDATE: Angels also getting catcher Jose Briceno. Briceno is 23, and he spent last year in high-A, but he also posted an OPS of .482, and, yes, that’s a 4, and no, that’s not a mistake. Of course, he’s hit better in the past. He’s been a decent prospect in the past. Right now, his career needs to be rescued.

—–

The day began with thoughts on a potential Andrelton Simmons blockbuster. As the day ends, half of what was discussed has come true — Simmons has been traded, and even to the general Los Angeles area. He just hasn’t been traded to the Dodgers, or for Yasiel Puig.

Rather, Simmons’ new teammates will be the rest of the Angels. And, headed to the Braves in exchange: Erick Aybar, Sean Newcomb, Chris Ellis, and a bit of money.

#Braves trade Simmons to #Angels for Newcomb, Ellis, Aybar and about $3M

— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) November 12, 2015

The money is in there to cancel out the difference between Simmons and Aybar’s 2016 salaries. Beyond that, Aybar will be a free agent, whereas Simmons is under contract through 2020. His future salaries:

• 2016: $6 million
• 2017: $8 million
• 2018: $11 million
• 2019: $13 million
• 2020: $15 million

For the Angels, this is about the shortstop position both short-term and long-term. In the short-term, while Simmons is younger than Aybar, they project to hit about the same. But the defensive difference is made evident by this table, comparing Inside Edge fielding results. What you see are rates of plays made on opportunities in different categories, separated by difficulty.

Simmons leads everywhere, which of course shouldn’t be a surprise, because Simmons is considered perhaps the best overall defensive player in the game, while Aybar is more of a bat-first shortstop who didn’t hit in the most recent season. So Simmons makes the Angels better now, and he gives them another long-term core piece who’s never going to be a true financial albatross. Simmons, to this point, hasn’t really hit. His career wRC+ is 84, and he peaked as a rookie. But as much as some people complain that defensive stats are unreliable, there’s no question about what Simmons can do, and about how much he can help. He’s not a player who looks good in the numbers, only. He’s a player who’s obviously good, and though his defense will decline with age, it’s not going to drop off a cliff in the next five years. At least, there’s no reason to expect that.

But you don’t need to be convinced that Simmons is an upgrade over Aybar. The Angels are paying a real cost here, in the form of their top two pitching prospects. Newcomb is a 22-year-old lefty who reached Double-A. Ellis is a 23-year-old righty who also reached Double-A. Newcomb was picked in the first round two years ago, while Ellis was picked in the third.

The Angels do have some decent rotation depth. Garrett Richards is controlled through 2018. Tyler Skaggs, 2019. Matt Shoemaker, 2020. Andrew Heaney and Nicholas Tropeano, 2021. To say nothing of Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson, veterans who’ll be free agents next fall. The cupboard isn’t bare. But this is still a major sacrifice, yet another injection of young pitching talent into the Braves’ developing system. The Braves, pretty clearly, believe strongly in their organizational ability to get the most out of talented pitchers. Newcomb and Ellis could be long-term assets. They just need to be polished.

Last year, throughout the minors, 578 pitchers threw at least 100 innings. Newcomb had the eighth-highest walk rate. Ellis was 47th, his rate spiking in Double-A. Right there, you get the message — pitchers good enough to be drafted high, but pitchers with real bouts of wildness. They obviously can’t be written off or anything, but it’s easy to understand the optimism and the skepticism. Some people prefer their pitchers to have a foundation of good raw stuff. Other people prefer a foundation of good command. Newcomb and Ellis are a bit riskier.

Newcomb is the better get, and the rest of the picture is that he also posted the sixth-highest strikeout rate. He had an ERA under 2.50, so the upside is evident, and he could be a quick mover. He could show up to help the Braves as soon as this season. But, you know how pitchers are. It’s another roll of the dice. There’s no knowing what Simmons will be in a few years, but he feels projectable. The pitchers could be almost anything. The Braves’ll hope they can be big-league pitchers by 2017 or so.

The Braves’ offensive plan appears to be: make sure to have Freddie Freeman, and the rest will work out somehow. The crop of pitchers is ahead of the crop of position players, and losing Simmons doesn’t help that, but if the Braves figure they’ve seen the best Simmons has to offer, then Newcomb is a high-upside asset to add to a huge collection of big arms. The Braves have made it no secret they’re building around pitching. It’s no secret that comes with its own challenges. I’m sure they’re excited to welcome the challenge of Sean Newcomb.

As of today, the Arizona Fall League has been underway for over a month. Two stadiums in that league, located in Peoria and Surprise, are equipped with PITCHf/x cameras, all manner of data from which is available at Daren Willman’s site MLB Farm.

What follows is a pair of leaderboards featuring the top velocities among those AFL pitchers — both overall, and also among starters only — who’ve appeared at either of the two aforementioned stadiums. Following those leaderboards are three observations of limited merit.

The pitch type FF denotes a four-seam fastball; FT, a two-seamer. Count denotes the number of the relevant pitch type to have been recorded by PITCHf/x cameras.

Read the rest of this entry »

Position: Detroit Tigers Baseball Analytics & Operations Internship

Location: Detroit

Description:

The Detroit Tigers are looking for a Baseball Analytics & Operations Intern who will be primarily responsible for assisting with day-to-day tasks in the front office. Responsibilities will focus on database design and maintenance, systems development and baseball research. Interns will also assist other areas within Baseball Operations as necessary (Advance Scouting, Amateur Scouting, International Scouting and Player Development). The position will run from March-December of 2016.

Responsibilities:

• Assist with developing and maintaining internal databases and monitoring the import of data feeds.
• Support internal systems development.
• Assist the Baseball Operations department with ad hoc projects as directed.
• Provide support for Baseball Operations meetings and player transaction decisions.
• Contribute to analysis of Major and Minor League Players.
• Staying current on publicly available baseball research and technology.
• Support Advance Scouting, Amateur Scouting, International Scouting and Player Development with their daily
  operations.

Qualifications:

• Candidates with a degree (undergrad or graduate) or extensive background in Mathematics, Statistics, Economics or Computer Science are preferred.
• The ideal candidate must be senior or recent graduate (within 6 months).
• Strong baseball knowledge.
• Proficient with Microsoft Office software including Word, Excel, and PowerPoint.
• Experience using SQL and statistical software such as R.
• Familiarity with advanced statistical concepts, particularly those relevant to sabermetric player evaluation techniques.
• Experience with large data sets and statistical modeling preferred.
• Knowledge of JavaScript and web development skills preferred.
• Professional attitude and work ethic with strong interpersonal skills.
• Demonstrated analytic skills and knowledge of a scripting language preferred.
• Previous work with a professional baseball organization preferred.
• Experience with software development and implementation preferred.
• Baseball playing or scouting experience a plus.
• The ideal candidate must be willing to work longs hours, including days, nights, weekends and holidays.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
Please apply here.

The General Managers meetings continued today, and I once again had an opportunity to speak to several of them. You’ll hear from some of the GMs in detail over the coming week, beginning with Seattle’s Jerry Dipoto tomorrow. In the meantime, I’ll follow up on yesterday’s five snapshots with five more:

——

Al Avila, Tigers: “There’s the addition of our new analytics department that we’re in the process of creating. That will help us make some decisions in a different manner. It’s not going to be huge, like 20 people, or anything like that. Right now, it will probably be three guys in the office, and a couple of consultants outside of the office, with the addition of some interns.”

Mike Chernoff, Indians: “It’s by no means a given that we’ll trade a starter. It’s a strength of our club, so we get asked about it a lot. Teams see the depth there, and we’re in a fortunate position to have that depth. But we want to build around it. We’re not looking to move major league pieces.

“Because we’re a small market club, we have to be creative and opportunistic in how we think about trades, and how we think about balancing out our team. So we’re always open to anything, but we’re not coming in here looking to move a pitcher.”

Rick Hahn, White Sox: “As for what mechanisms we use to evaluate our defensive performance, it’s all factored in there. Fundamentally, you go back to what your eyes are showing you. At the same time, we’re very well aware of what the objective data is showing, whether it’s from a Defensive Runs Saved standpoint, or a conversion-of-balls-in-play-into-outs standpoint. We also look at the more advanced, and the recent StatCast data. All of those arrows are pointing in the same direction; they’re all giving the same consistent message: Our defense was not at the level we needed it to be.”

Dave Stewart, Diamondbacks: “I don’t think anybody has a blueprint. I’ve been a part of some good staffs, but to say you have a blueprint for build a pitching staff, I don’t think there’s such a thing.

“Right now, we have a nice young pitching staff, and ideally you’d like to complement those guys with similar guys. At the same point, when you’re young and you don’t really have leadership, sometimes you want to look for a guy that’s a little more of a veteran. You want somebody who can put his hand print, and his foot print, on these guys to show them how to get the job done.”

Dick Williams, Reds: “I’ll just say that I’m really impressed by his understanding of his game. A lot has been made of how much Joey (Votto) understands advanced statistics. But I don’t think people should forget how much time he spends working on his baseball. Apart from the theories, he’s as diligent as anyone I know when it comes to finding flaws, and fixing them mechanically.”

Despite producing the same winning percentage as Colorado, Milwaukee and Oakland survive on run differential.

As you know, the General Managers meetings are currently taking place in Boca Raton, Florida. I’ve had an opportunity to speak to several of the GMs – I’ll talk to more of them tomorrow – and some of those conversations will be shared here in the coming days. Here are snapshots from four of today’s one-on-ones, and another from a group session held yesterday:

——

John Coppolella, Braves: “We’re looking at the way John Schuerholz built the Royals and the Braves. We’re looking at the way John Hart built the Indians and the Rangers. They went with young, upside talent. They took long-range views. I think we’re on the same track.

“It was tough for us to trade away Jason Heyward and Justin Upton. We traded them away because they brought us value in the deals. I wish we had Jason Heyward and Justin Upton going forward. If we had $350 million dollars, maybe we could get both of them this offseason. That’s not where were at, at this point in the winning cycle.”

Jerry Dipoto, Mariners: “The philosophy I’m bringing over here is pretty different. I respect Jack Zduriencik – he’s had a wonderful baseball career and I’m sure he’ll continue to have one – but we’ll do things differently than he did. We see things through a different lens.

“Regarding (the Angels), it would be fair to say that this is a different environment.”

Dave Dombrowski, Red Sox: “I’ve always tried to not have untouchables. If you have Miguel Cabrera and he’s the best hitter in the game, and somebody offers you two Miguel Cabreras, you have to be open minded about it… There are some players we have that are much less apt to be dealt than others. I’m not necessarily going to name them.”

Matt Klentak, Phillies: “Philosophically, I am very much of the mind to use all of the information to make every decision that we make. I’m not a huge fan of operating under any sort of absolutes, but I want to make sure that we’re managing all of the information as well as we can.

“We’re in the process of (building an analytics department). I’ve only been on the ground in Philadelphia for about a week, so there’s only so much I could have done do far, but that’s definitely a critical focus for us. We’ve started building (a proprietary system).”

David Stearns, Brewers: “Mark Attanasio, our owner, has given me complete autonomy. During the interview process, I presented my vision of where I thought the Brewers should head, and he agreed with it enough to give me the job.

“I really don’t see a dichotomy between (the analytics and scouting departments). I see them both as information sources where we need the absolute best of both. We’re going to build out both. In this industry, the game is, ‘What is the next frontier in baseball, and where can we get the next competitive advantage?’”

Position: TrackMan Analytics/Operations Intern

Location: Stamford, Conn.

Description:
Join TrackMan’s team as an Analytics/Operations Intern for TrackMan Baseball, a US based sports technology firm. You will take on a critical role in a small, fast moving entrepreneurial company that is breaking new ground in sports.

In this position, you will primarily be responsible for reviewing TrackMan data from a significant number of MLB, Minor League baseball, NCAA stadiums and numerous amateur tournaments during the 2016 baseball season. You will also have the opportunity to perform statistical analysis as directed.

We are hiring on a rolling basis, and the internship wraps up at the conclusion of the Major League baseball season, with the opportunity to stay on for further projects. Candidates with only summer availability will also be considered for a shorter term internship.

This is a great opportunity for someone who wants to break into the baseball community and get experience with data available exclusively to professional baseball teams. Full training is provided and you’ll have the opportunity to work closely with members of the TrackMan staff and interface with our partner teams. Weekend and evening availability is important.

Requirements:

• Excellent knowledge of baseball.
• Proficiency in Microsoft Excel.
• Ability to work independently and collaboratively.
• Strong attention to detail and ability to work well with others.

Qualifications:

• Bachelors or Masters degree in Statistics, Mathematics or a related field.
• Strong knowledge of databases, SQL, and R statistical software.
• Experience working with large baseball related data-sets.
• Python or other scripting language experience is a plus.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
Please email TrackMan.

In case you haven’t heard, the new Baseball Hall of Fame ballot was announced today. Fifteen newcomers — players who retired in 2010 — join 17 holdovers. As usual, the list is a mix of token candidates, interesting players and slam dunks. Here is a custom leaderboard for position players and pitchers for just the newcomers. And here’s a table for them, in case you don’t want to play around with the leaderboard.

2016 Hall of Fame Ballot – Newcomers

Name	G	IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	PA	wOBA	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WPA	RE24	WAR
Ken Griffey Jr.	2671					11304	0.384	131	-7.3	444.1	-39.6	45.2	529.0	77.7
Jim Edmonds	2011					7980	0.385	132	-8	317.7	73.3	31.5	352.0	64.5
Jason Kendall	2085					8702	0.334	99	0.7	-6.8	130.8	11.1	92.8	39.8
Mike Hampton	425	2268.1	4.06	4.27	4.57	845	0.289	67	-1.2	-36.9	91.2	0.4	-5.3	35.9
Troy Glaus	1537					6355	0.365	120	-2.4	157.7	-20.4	12.1	159.1	34.4
Luis Castillo	1720					7471	0.327	97	33.4	7.1	37.9	1.4	18.3	28.4
Randy Winn	1717					6878	0.333	100	28.2	28.8	23.5	9.7	70.1	28.1
Mike Lowell	1601					6500	0.346	108	-39.7	25.8	22.7	1.8	77.9	26.0
Trevor Hoffman	1034	1089.1	2.87	3.08	3.78							32.2	174.8	26.0
Billy Wagner	853	903	2.31	2.73	2.76							28.5	196.6	24.1
Garret Anderson	2228					9177	0.334	100	-7.2	-12.6	-59.6	5.5	101.6	24.0
Mark Grudzielanek	1802					7603	0.32	91	4.1	-80	69.4	-8.2	-60.1	23.2
Mike Sweeney	1454					5848	0.366	117	-2.7	121.2	-106.5	15.0	206.1	21.1
Brad Ausmus	1971					7102	0.299	76	-23.2	-244.9	183.7	-22.5	-219.2	17.2
David Eckstein	1311					5705	0.316	92	10.6	-49.7	28.6	-2.7	-40.7	16.8

Note that for the pitchers, I included their position player WAR, as well as their RE24 and WPA. For Mike Hampton, that’s a bump of 7.9 WAR. For the two relievers, it’s a demerit of 0.1 WAR.

The most interesting questions are what you think of Jim Edmonds and Trevor Hoffman. Edmonds makes for a fascinating debate. I’m not sure Hoffman does. Honestly, looking at these dashboard numbers, it’s hard to make the case that Hoffman deserves inclusion. Or, if he does, then Wagner definitely deserves inclusion as well.

Here’s the same leaderboards (position players, pitchers) and table for the entire ballot.

2016 Hall of Fame Ballot – Everyone

Name	G	PA	wOBA	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	RE24	WPA	WAR
Barry Bonds	2986	12606	0.435	173	30.4	1173.8	67.6	1348.3	127.0	164.4
Roger Clemens	360	213	0.207	15	0	-23.8	23.2	736.4	74.3	134.4
Mike Mussina	376	54	0.172	5	0	-7.1	5.9	400.4	39.2	82.3
Jeff Bagwell	2150	9431	0.405	149	6.5	594.6	-82.1	698.7	59.6	80.2
Curt Schilling	495	901	0.161	-16	-0.3	-132.8	94.6	277.5	25.0	78.8
Ken Griffey Jr.	2671	11304	0.384	131	-7.3	444.1	-39.6	529.0	45.2	77.7
Larry Walker	1988	8030	0.412	140	21.5	427.9	3.5	534.1	48.9	68.7
Tim Raines	2502	10359	0.361	125	100.4	408.2	-109.6	503.5	50.4	66.4
Mark McGwire	1874	7660	0.415	157	-2.5	555	-138.5	581.3	53.5	66.3
Edgar Martinez	2055	8678	0.405	147	-21	500.5	-133.5	514.9	45.2	65.5
Jim Edmonds	2011	7980	0.385	132	-8	317.7	73.3	352.0	31.5	64.5
Alan Trammell	2293	9376	0.343	111	2.3	124.1	184.4	124.9	13.0	63.7
Mike Piazza	1912	7745	0.39	140	-31.6	370.1	20.7	497.4	43.5	62.5
Gary Sheffield	2576	10947	0.391	141	9.7	575.7	-300.9	625.2	60.2	62.1
Sammy Sosa	2354	9896	0.37	124	-7.9	300.4	-8.1	383.0	24.9	60.1
Fred McGriff	2460	10174	0.383	134	-8.6	409.1	-186.3	527.6	47.5	56.9
Jeff Kent	2298	9537	0.367	123	-19.8	259.7	1.2	346.5	24.3	56.1
Nomar Garciaparra	1434	6116	0.376	124	4.8	199.9	18.8	239.2	17.1	41.4
Jason Kendall	2085	8702	0.334	99	0.7	-6.8	130.8	92.8	11.1	39.8
Mike Hampton	425	845	0.289	67	-1.2	-36.9	91.2	-5.3	0.4	35.9
Troy Glaus	1537	6355	0.365	120	-2.4	157.7	-20.4	159.1	12.1	34.4
Luis Castillo	1720	7471	0.327	97	33.4	7.1	37.9	18.3	1.4	28.4
Randy Winn	1717	6878	0.333	100	28.2	28.8	23.5	70.1	9.7	28.1
Lee Smith	549	71	0.09	-55	0	-13	6.1	156.4	22.9	26.1
Mike Lowell	1601	6500	0.346	108	-39.7	25.8	22.7	77.9	1.8	26.0
Trevor Hoffman	551	36	0.127	-28	0	-6.3	3.8	174.8	32.2	26.0
Billy Wagner	452	21	0.119	-30	0	-3.8	2.2	196.6	28.5	24.1
Garret Anderson	2228	9177	0.334	100	-7.2	-12.6	-59.6	101.6	5.5	24.0
Mark Grudzielanek	1802	7603	0.32	91	4.1	-80	69.4	-60.1	-8.2	23.2
Mike Sweeney	1454	5848	0.366	117	-2.7	121.2	-106.5	206.1	15.0	21.1
Brad Ausmus	1971	7102	0.299	76	-23.2	-244.9	183.7	-219.2	-22.5	17.2
David Eckstein	1311	5705	0.316	92	10.6	-49.7	28.6	-40.7	-2.7	16.8

Again, the RE24, WPA and WAR numbers are combined for the pitchers.

So, who would you vote for? I made a survey so you can vote. You’re on the honor system here — don’t pick more than 10 players, please. If you’re looking for my two cents, here’s how I’d vote:

• No Doubters: Bonds, Clemens, Griffey, Mussina, Piazza, Raines
• Don’t Want To See Fall Off Ballot: Sheffield, Walker
• Last Chance: McGwire, Trammell

Because I would want to give McGwire and Trammell their best shot in their final year on the ballot, I’d leave off Bagwell and Schilling, and cross my fingers that Edmonds gets enough votes to stay. Either way, it’s a tough puzzle. Rock your vote below!

In the first trade of the offseason, the Mariners shipped Logan Morrison, Danny Farquhar and Brad Miller to Tampa Bay in exchange for Nate Karns, C.J. Riefenhauser and outfield prospect Boog Powell. Dave Cameron covered the trade in depth this morning. I’m here to give you the skinny on Boog Powell according to my fancy computer math.

Powell split 2015 between Double-A and Triple-A, and hit a solid .295/.385/.392. Powell did an excellent job of controlling the strike zone: his 15% strikeout rate wasn’t too far from his 12% walk rate. He paired that plate discipline with a modicum of power and plus speed. He swiped 18 bases last year, and has primarily played center field in the minors.

Based on his 2015 season, KATOH pegs Powell for 4.7 WAR through age 28, which makes him roughly the 80th best prospect in KATOH’s eyes. This was a sizable step up from his 2014 forecast of 1.5 WAR. Below are his statistical comps, which were generated using Mahalanobis distance calculations. Read the rest of this entry »