Just to be clear, there are two positions here.

Position: Texas Rangers Architect, Baseball Systems

Location: Arlington, Texas

Description:
The Architect, Baseball Systems will expand and maintain our existing proprietary software for baseball operations.

Responsibilities:

• Maintain and expand our internal web site, reports and internal applications.
• Designing and maintaining the database.
• Import, transformation and maintenance of multiple complex data feeds.
• Work with baseball operations staff to identify requirements.
• Support end users.

Qualifications:

• Five to 10 years professional software development experience (preference for full stack .NET developers).
• Bachelor’s degree or higher in computer science preferred.
• Excellent written and verbal communication skills.
• Familiarity with current statistical concepts in baseball.
• Passion for the game.
• Experience in any of the following are helpful: C#, Microsoft SQL Server (development, data design, query tuning), ASP.Net web forms, SQL Server Reporting Services, SQL Server Integration Services, jQuery, Tableau.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
It is a big plus if you can include or link to work samples a big plus when you apply for this position. Please apply here.

…

Position: Texas Rangers Quantitative Analyst

Location: Arlington, Texas

Description:
The Quantitative Analyst will create statistical models and applications and assist in general research and development work for Baseball Operations.

Responsibilities:

• Develop statistical models; import, export and transform data as necessary to prepare the data sets for these models.
• Develop automation, applications and reports to put models into production for users.
• Conduct general research and development.
• Work with baseball operations staff to prioritize areas of research along with developing a deeper understanding of the game.

Qualifications:

• One-three years’ experience in a similar role preferred (inside or outside of baseball).
• Bachelor’s degree in Statistics, Data Science, Engineering or similar fields or equivalent work experience.
• Proficiency in SQL and relational databases (we use Microsoft SQL Server).
• Proficiency in R or similar statistics packages.
• Proficiency in SQL Server Reporting Services, Tableau or other visualization or reporting tools a plus.
• Passion for baseball.
• Strong understanding of baseball statistics and strategy, familiarity with current sabermetric research.
• Strong written and verbal communications skills.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
It is a big plus if you can include or link to work samples a big plus when you apply for this position. Please apply here.

There was a time when Jeff Francis was on top of the world. As the best pitcher on the improbable 2007 National League champion Colorado Rockies squad, Francis pitched many pivotal games during the team’s Rocktober march, including starting all three postseason Game Ones. He even landed on the cover of Sports Illustrated, a rare feat for a Colorado Rockies team that rarely finds itself the subject of national attention:

Francis, one of the more humble baseball players I’ve ever come into contact with, who actually could have done anything he wanted to in life (he was a physics major in college) copped to buying up every copy of that issue he could find. He even sent autographed copies of it to his former coaches, which is a pretty cool thing to do.

That issue was dated Oct. 15, 2007. He landed on the cover because at that point he and the Rockies were rolling. When it landed on newstands, the team had won 20 of its last 21 games, and would win again that night to send the Rockies to their first and (still) only World Series berth. Francis had pitched admirably along the way. In Game 1 in Philadelphia, he pitched six innings of two-run ball, striking out eight. Eight days later, in the desert against the Dbacks, he arguably pitched even better. He didn’t have his strikeouts working, but he netted 13 ground balls, and allowed just one run over 6.2 innings. He was bestowed with the “W” in both outings.

In fact, while Francis had lost the only game the Rockies lost from mid-September until late October, he had pitched pretty well in the second half, and for the season overall. His 3.7 WAR in 2007 still represents the eighth-best single-season Rockies total, and his 14.2 WAR with the Rockies is still the third-most on their career pitching leaderboard. That second half, he mixed efficient quality starts with total drubbings, as he did for most of his career — the crafty Francis was often at the mercy of the home plate umpire.

Speaking of drubbings, that second loss, the one he endured in late October at the hands of the Red Sox, was a rude awakening for the Rockies and their fans. Facing the behemoth Boston lineup, Francis coughed up six runs in four innings in Game One of the 2007 World Series. Dustin Pedroia would lead the game off with a home run, and Red Sox hitters made it tough on Francis all night. He never recorded four consecutive outs, and allowed baserunners in every inning. In fact, Francis’ Game Score for the outing was a lowly 18. As it turns out, this is one of the worst Game Scores in Game One World Series history:

Worst Game Scores, World Series Game One History

Year	Pitcher	Team	GSc
2004	Woody Williams	STL	11
1945	Hal Newhouser	DET	16
1996	Andy Pettitte	NYY	17
2007	Jeff Francis	COL	18
1997	Orel Hershiser	CLE	21
1919	Eddie Cicotte	CHW	22
1979	Bruce Kison	PIT	25
2014	James Shields	KC	25
1940	Paul Derringer	CIN	26
1932	Guy Bush	CHC	27
1959	Roger Craig	LAD	27
1965	Don Drysdale	LAD	27
1980	Dennis Leonard	KC	27

SOURCE: Baseball-Reference

Find the full list of World Series Game One Game Scores here.

Despite this, there’s actually an argument to be made that the Rockies were better off with Francis in the game. Franklin Morales — who, at the time, was still a stud phenom (though not as much after this night) — was brought in to start the fifth, and he and Ryan Speier proceeded to torch any small chance the Rockies had of coming back. The pair allowed 10 baserunners and seven runs in just 0.2 innings pitched (Speier didn’t even retire a batter), and suddenly it was 13-1. An hour or so into the World Series, the life had been sucked out of the Rockies. Boston would only trail for four innings during their tidy four-game sweep.

Today, Jeff Francis announced his retirement, and 2007 seems like a long time ago. In 2008, Francis would begin to have shoulder trouble, and was rarely ever the same pitcher he was in 2007 on a consistent basis. But he still ground out a pretty decent career. Most kids who grew up loving baseball would be ecstatic if they were told they could pitch in the majors for 11 seasons, and even more so if you told them that in one of those 11 seasons they’d wind up on the cover of Sports Illustrated. No, 16 WAR isn’t going to get Jeff Francis into the Hall of Fame, but even if it ended without a parade, he’ll always have Rocktober, and that’s pretty good.

In the days since we first caught wind of the Ken Giles trade, we’ve learned of a few players who weren’t previously thought to be included. For one, the Astros sent pitching prospect Mark Appel to Philly, rather than outfield prospect Derek Fisher. Additionally, the two teams also swapped Arauzess: Middle infield prospect Jonathan Arauz is headed to Houston, while pitching prospect Harold Arauz goes to Philly. Although they share a last name, and happened to be in the same trade, the two are unrelated. Baseball can be weird sometimes. Anyway, here’s what KATOH thinks of these prospects. Note that WAR figures represent projected WAR through the player’s age-28 season based on 2015 minor-league stats.

Jonathan Arauz, 3.9 WAR (Profile)

The Phillies signed Jonathan Arauz out of Panama with a $600,000 bonus in the summer of 2014. Although he didn’t turn 17 until August, the Phillies brought Arauz stateside to start his pro career, and he didn’t embarrass himself. He hit .254/.309/.370 in 44 games while splitting time between second base and shortstop.

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Last year, one of the worst second-half pitchers in baseball was Jeff Samardzija. There wasn’t really a drop-off in his stuff, though, so the Giants saw enough to sign him to a big free-agent contract. Another pitcher who struggled in the second half, a bit more famously, was Johnny Cueto, but again, the Giants saw enough to now sign him to a big free-agent contract, too:

Johnny Cueto’s deal with #SFGiants is for six years and $130M with an opt out after 2 years.

— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) December 14, 2015

In Nashville, I was talking to someone in a front office, and we discussed whether Cueto would end up with more than the Diamondbacks were said to have offered him. The word is that Cueto turned down six years and something around $120 million from Arizona. The Giants are giving him a little more, and an opt-out, so Cueto’s clearly doing fine. It’s a bigger deal, in a more pitcher-friendly environment. As risky as Cueto might seem, Jordan Zimmermann might have no fewer red flags, and he got five years and $110 million. Cueto deserves the extra season.

Cueto is obviously a tough nut to crack. People don’t love his durability, but he’s cleared 450 innings the last two seasons. He comes off as a higher-maintenance sort, but his results have mostly been outstanding, and he recently worked that World Series complete game. You don’t want to believe too much in the playoff-redemption narrative — Cueto had 10 walks, 19 strikeouts, and a 5.40 ERA. But the Giants aren’t signing Cueto because of his time in Kansas City. They’re signing him because of what he did with Cincinnati, and San Francisco should provide a favorable environment. What teams care about is run prevention, and Cueto has prevented runs better than the majority of starting pitchers for the last several years.

We’ll see if he continues to beat his peripherals. Over the last six years, between the ages of 24 – 29, Cueto’s ERA- has been better than his FIP- by 15 points. Here are the biggest such differences over the last 50 years, within that age window:

• Jim Palmer, 18 points
• Johnny Cueto, 15
• Dave Stieb, 15
• Catfish Hunter, 14
• Mike Torrez, 14
• Barry Zito, 14

From age-30 on, Palmer had a difference of 15 points. Stieb, 8 points. Hunter, 4 points. Torrez, -3 points. Zito, -3 points. So that’s not super encouraging, nor is the simple presence of Zito, who has some Cueto parallels. It’s a name that sends shivers.

But Johnny Cueto isn’t Barry Zito. Johnny Cueto isn’t anyone but Johnny Cueto, and last year his stuff didn’t fall apart, and he was awesome in the National League. Now he returns to the National League, with a good team and a good coaching staff in a friendly environment. The Giants recognize and accept the risk in the pitchers they’ve signed. Higher risk doesn’t mean a higher chance of this being a mistake, necessarily. It’s just about big upside and big downside. Presented the option of going big or going home, the Giants have leaped at the chance for the former.

Well, it seems like the Cubs have won the Jason Heyward sweepstakes.

Multiple sources indicate Heyward has indeed chosen Cubs over Cards, Nats.

— Gordon Wittenmyer (@GDubCub) December 11, 2015

BREAKING: Heyward has decision. Told now it's #Cubs. Source earlier told PD #Cardinals alerted they're out. https://t.co/8gMFYljxEc Updated

— Derrick Goold (@dgoold) December 11, 2015

Cubs are believed to have gotten heyward for less than $200M. Apparently taking less to be at addison and clark. @GDubCub 1st

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) December 11, 2015

At “less than $200 million”, as Heyman reported, I’m guessing the deal will end up at $192 million over eight years, or something in that range. He’ll almost certainly have an opt-out, probably after the third or fourth year. We should find out official terms soon, but one thing looks like a safe bet: the 2016 Cubs are going to be the pre-season favorites to win the NL Central.

Welp, so much for that. A few hours after I wrote that the Cardinals were the best fit for Jason Heyward among the three finalists, Ken Rosenthal suggests that he won’t be going back to St. Louis after all.

#STLCards out on Heyward, sources tell me and @jonmorosi. @dgoold had indicated they no longer were in play.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 11, 2015

That leaves the Cubs and Nationals, assuming there isn’t a second mystery team. And between those two options, I’d expect Heyward to go to the Cubs, though of course, I just linked to a reason why you shouldn’t put too much faith in my expectations of these things. If it is the Cubs, then it will be fascinating to see if they really want to roll with a Schwarber-Heyward-Soler outfield, or if signing Heyward opens the door to a trade of Soler for a center fielder.

Stay tuned!

On Wednesday night, the Astros acquired lights-out reliever Ken Giles from the Phillies in exchange for Vincent Velasquez, Brett Oberholtzer, Thomas Eshelman and outfield prospect Derek Fisher. Velasquez and Oberholtzer both pitched a substantial number of big league innings the last couple of years, and since KATOH’s only built for minor league stats, they fall a bit outside of my jurisdiction. I wrote about Velasquez when he was called up in June. Eshelman was the Astros’ second-round pick, and threw all of just 10 professional innings after signing. That’s not nearly enough to formulate a meaningful projection.

That leaves me with Derek Fisher — a toolsy outfielder who’s coming off of a 20-30 season in A-Ball. A 2014 supplemental first round pick, Fisher slashed .274/.364/.481 between Low-A and High-A last last year. His power is his most redeeming quality, as he posted ISOs north of .200 at both stops. The downside was that he struck out in 23% of his trips to the plate. A strikeout rate that high is a huge detractor for a guy in the low minors. KATOH projects Fisher for 2.6 WAR through age-28, which makes him roughly a back-end top-200 prospect.

Fisher’s upside is tantalizing. Last winter, Kiley McDaniel gave his raw power and speed grades of 60 and 65, respectively, making him one of the toolsiest players out there. But the 6-foot-3 slugger will need to work on making more contact at the higher levels. While he’s made it work in the low minors, low-contact hitters often sputter against better pitching. Here are his Mahalanobis comps.

Fisher’s statistical comps are riddled with toolsy players who fizzled in the high minors, from Dave Krynzel to Rod Smith to Dee Brown. On the bright side, players like Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa made enough contact to make it work. Fisher’s a boom or bust prospect, whose ultimate future will likely depend on whether he makes enough contact to leverage his impressive power.

Position: Milwaukee Brewers Baseball Research & Development Intern

Location: Milwaukee

Description:

The Milwaukee Brewers are currently seeking an Intern in the Baseball Research and Development Department. The Intern will work with the Baseball R&D, Baseball Systems departments and the entire Baseball Operations Department to deliver research and tools to improve decision making. The position requires a person who has intellectual curiosity, is a self-starter and can communicate technical and analytical concepts effectively to non-technical people. Being passionate about using data, analysis and technology to improve decision making processes is also a key differentiator. Reasonable accommodations may be made to enable individuals with disabilities to perform the essential functions. Business hours are Monday – Friday 9am – 5pm, however, candidates must be capable of working extended hours such as overtime, nights, and weekends, when necessary.

Responsibilities:

• Work with Baseball R&D and Baseball Operations to understand analytical needs and implement best practices for meeting those needs.
• Investigate emerging data sources and identify potential for predictive value and actionable insights to improve decision making.
• Develop visualizations and other mechanisms for disseminating analytical results to Baseball Operations, including consideration for less technically and analytically inclined consumers.
• Continually survey latest analytical methods and advancements in Baseball Research to apply cutting edge methods and data to problems.
• Understand current decision processes and information systems and offer enhancements and improvements.
• Ad-hoc requests for reports, visualizations and research projects during the year.

Qualifications:

• Proficiency with an analytical software platform required, R or Mathematica preferred.
• Proficiency with SQL and SQL databases required, Microsoft SQL preferred.
• Proficiency with data scripting language or ETL environment (Python, PERL, SSIS, etc.) desired.
• Proficiency with C# desired.
• Bachelor’s degree (B.S./B.A.) in Computer Science, Mathematics, Statistics, Operations Research, or related field from four-year college or university. Advanced degree or current pursuit of advanced degree in one of the areas mentioned above or a related field is desirable.
• Knowledge of Microsoft office software including Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Access, Outlook, and Internet Explorer.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
Please apply here.

The Los Angeles Angels have made a trade with the Washington Nationals to bring Yunel Escobar to the Angels in exchange for reliever Trevor Gott. The potential for a deal was first reported by Jon Morosi while the deal was confirmed by Jon Heyman and Mike DiGiovanna.

Escobar is a well-traveled individual. The Angels will be the sixth team in the last seven years for Escobar, eight if counting teams he never actually suited up with. He played the first three and a half seasons of his major league career with the Braves before the carousel began. The transactions for Escobar since 2010 are as follows:

• In July 2010, along with Jo-Jo Reyes, traded to the Toronto Blue Jays for Tyler Pastornicky, Alex Gonzalez and Tim Collins.
• In November 2012, along with Jeff Mathis, Jake Marisnick, Adeiny Hechavarria, Anthony DeSclafani, and Henderson Alvarez, traded to the Miami Marlins for Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, John Buck, and Emilio Bonifacio.
• Less than a month later, traded to the Tampa Bay Rays for Derek Dietrich.
• In January 2015, along with Ben Zobrist, traded to the Oakland Athletics for John Jaso, Daniel Robertson, and Boog Powell.
• Less than a week later, traded to the Washington Nationals for Tyler Clippard.
• Today, traded to the Los Angeles Angels for Trevor Gott.

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As you’ve certainly heard by now, the Diamondbacks swung a deal for Shelby Miller (and Gabe Speier) on Wednesday night. The trade gives the D-Backs another bona-fide starter to slot behind the recently signed Zack Greinke. The more controversial story, though, is the size of the package given up by Arizona in the deal: Aaron Blair, Ender Inciarte, and oh yeah, Dansby Swanson. In what follows, I provide a stats-driven look at the prospects involved in the trade using my KATOH projection system.

Dansby Swanson (Profile)

As last year’s first overall pick, Swanson is easily the centerpiece of the trio headed to Atlanta. Unfortunately, he logged just 99 plate appearances after signing, which isn’t enough data for me to formulate a meaningful KATOH projection. I will note, though, that Swanson hit the snot out of the ball in those 99 plate appearances. He posted equal strikeout and walk numbers with good power, which yielded a .289/.394/.483 slash line. KATOH will likely pick up on these strong suits next year, once Swanson gives me a bit more data with to work. As a shortstop, Swanson’s level of offensive ability is exciting, and there’s no reason to think he won’t develop into an excellent player. As a point of reference, consider that Andrew Benintendi put up numbers not unlike Swanson’s in his pro debut this year, and is projected for 7.0 WAR through age-28. These two players have their differences, of course, but this should give you a loose benchmark of how Swanson may grade out once he has more playing time under his belt.

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