In case you haven’t heard, the new Baseball Hall of Fame ballot was announced today. Fifteen newcomers — players who retired in 2010 — join 17 holdovers. As usual, the list is a mix of token candidates, interesting players and slam dunks. Here is a custom leaderboard for position players and pitchers for just the newcomers. And here’s a table for them, in case you don’t want to play around with the leaderboard.

2016 Hall of Fame Ballot – Newcomers

Name	G	IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	PA	wOBA	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WPA	RE24	WAR
Ken Griffey Jr.	2671					11304	0.384	131	-7.3	444.1	-39.6	45.2	529.0	77.7
Jim Edmonds	2011					7980	0.385	132	-8	317.7	73.3	31.5	352.0	64.5
Jason Kendall	2085					8702	0.334	99	0.7	-6.8	130.8	11.1	92.8	39.8
Mike Hampton	425	2268.1	4.06	4.27	4.57	845	0.289	67	-1.2	-36.9	91.2	0.4	-5.3	35.9
Troy Glaus	1537					6355	0.365	120	-2.4	157.7	-20.4	12.1	159.1	34.4
Luis Castillo	1720					7471	0.327	97	33.4	7.1	37.9	1.4	18.3	28.4
Randy Winn	1717					6878	0.333	100	28.2	28.8	23.5	9.7	70.1	28.1
Mike Lowell	1601					6500	0.346	108	-39.7	25.8	22.7	1.8	77.9	26.0
Trevor Hoffman	1034	1089.1	2.87	3.08	3.78							32.2	174.8	26.0
Billy Wagner	853	903	2.31	2.73	2.76							28.5	196.6	24.1
Garret Anderson	2228					9177	0.334	100	-7.2	-12.6	-59.6	5.5	101.6	24.0
Mark Grudzielanek	1802					7603	0.32	91	4.1	-80	69.4	-8.2	-60.1	23.2
Mike Sweeney	1454					5848	0.366	117	-2.7	121.2	-106.5	15.0	206.1	21.1
Brad Ausmus	1971					7102	0.299	76	-23.2	-244.9	183.7	-22.5	-219.2	17.2
David Eckstein	1311					5705	0.316	92	10.6	-49.7	28.6	-2.7	-40.7	16.8

Note that for the pitchers, I included their position player WAR, as well as their RE24 and WPA. For Mike Hampton, that’s a bump of 7.9 WAR. For the two relievers, it’s a demerit of 0.1 WAR.

The most interesting questions are what you think of Jim Edmonds and Trevor Hoffman. Edmonds makes for a fascinating debate. I’m not sure Hoffman does. Honestly, looking at these dashboard numbers, it’s hard to make the case that Hoffman deserves inclusion. Or, if he does, then Wagner definitely deserves inclusion as well.

Here’s the same leaderboards (position players, pitchers) and table for the entire ballot.

2016 Hall of Fame Ballot – Everyone

Name	G	PA	wOBA	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	RE24	WPA	WAR
Barry Bonds	2986	12606	0.435	173	30.4	1173.8	67.6	1348.3	127.0	164.4
Roger Clemens	360	213	0.207	15	0	-23.8	23.2	736.4	74.3	134.4
Mike Mussina	376	54	0.172	5	0	-7.1	5.9	400.4	39.2	82.3
Jeff Bagwell	2150	9431	0.405	149	6.5	594.6	-82.1	698.7	59.6	80.2
Curt Schilling	495	901	0.161	-16	-0.3	-132.8	94.6	277.5	25.0	78.8
Ken Griffey Jr.	2671	11304	0.384	131	-7.3	444.1	-39.6	529.0	45.2	77.7
Larry Walker	1988	8030	0.412	140	21.5	427.9	3.5	534.1	48.9	68.7
Tim Raines	2502	10359	0.361	125	100.4	408.2	-109.6	503.5	50.4	66.4
Mark McGwire	1874	7660	0.415	157	-2.5	555	-138.5	581.3	53.5	66.3
Edgar Martinez	2055	8678	0.405	147	-21	500.5	-133.5	514.9	45.2	65.5
Jim Edmonds	2011	7980	0.385	132	-8	317.7	73.3	352.0	31.5	64.5
Alan Trammell	2293	9376	0.343	111	2.3	124.1	184.4	124.9	13.0	63.7
Mike Piazza	1912	7745	0.39	140	-31.6	370.1	20.7	497.4	43.5	62.5
Gary Sheffield	2576	10947	0.391	141	9.7	575.7	-300.9	625.2	60.2	62.1
Sammy Sosa	2354	9896	0.37	124	-7.9	300.4	-8.1	383.0	24.9	60.1
Fred McGriff	2460	10174	0.383	134	-8.6	409.1	-186.3	527.6	47.5	56.9
Jeff Kent	2298	9537	0.367	123	-19.8	259.7	1.2	346.5	24.3	56.1
Nomar Garciaparra	1434	6116	0.376	124	4.8	199.9	18.8	239.2	17.1	41.4
Jason Kendall	2085	8702	0.334	99	0.7	-6.8	130.8	92.8	11.1	39.8
Mike Hampton	425	845	0.289	67	-1.2	-36.9	91.2	-5.3	0.4	35.9
Troy Glaus	1537	6355	0.365	120	-2.4	157.7	-20.4	159.1	12.1	34.4
Luis Castillo	1720	7471	0.327	97	33.4	7.1	37.9	18.3	1.4	28.4
Randy Winn	1717	6878	0.333	100	28.2	28.8	23.5	70.1	9.7	28.1
Lee Smith	549	71	0.09	-55	0	-13	6.1	156.4	22.9	26.1
Mike Lowell	1601	6500	0.346	108	-39.7	25.8	22.7	77.9	1.8	26.0
Trevor Hoffman	551	36	0.127	-28	0	-6.3	3.8	174.8	32.2	26.0
Billy Wagner	452	21	0.119	-30	0	-3.8	2.2	196.6	28.5	24.1
Garret Anderson	2228	9177	0.334	100	-7.2	-12.6	-59.6	101.6	5.5	24.0
Mark Grudzielanek	1802	7603	0.32	91	4.1	-80	69.4	-60.1	-8.2	23.2
Mike Sweeney	1454	5848	0.366	117	-2.7	121.2	-106.5	206.1	15.0	21.1
Brad Ausmus	1971	7102	0.299	76	-23.2	-244.9	183.7	-219.2	-22.5	17.2
David Eckstein	1311	5705	0.316	92	10.6	-49.7	28.6	-40.7	-2.7	16.8

Again, the RE24, WPA and WAR numbers are combined for the pitchers.

So, who would you vote for? I made a survey so you can vote. You’re on the honor system here — don’t pick more than 10 players, please. If you’re looking for my two cents, here’s how I’d vote:

• No Doubters: Bonds, Clemens, Griffey, Mussina, Piazza, Raines
• Don’t Want To See Fall Off Ballot: Sheffield, Walker
• Last Chance: McGwire, Trammell

Because I would want to give McGwire and Trammell their best shot in their final year on the ballot, I’d leave off Bagwell and Schilling, and cross my fingers that Edmonds gets enough votes to stay. Either way, it’s a tough puzzle. Rock your vote below!

In the first trade of the offseason, the Mariners shipped Logan Morrison, Danny Farquhar and Brad Miller to Tampa Bay in exchange for Nate Karns, C.J. Riefenhauser and outfield prospect Boog Powell. Dave Cameron covered the trade in depth this morning. I’m here to give you the skinny on Boog Powell according to my fancy computer math.

Powell split 2015 between Double-A and Triple-A, and hit a solid .295/.385/.392. Powell did an excellent job of controlling the strike zone: his 15% strikeout rate wasn’t too far from his 12% walk rate. He paired that plate discipline with a modicum of power and plus speed. He swiped 18 bases last year, and has primarily played center field in the minors.

Based on his 2015 season, KATOH pegs Powell for 4.7 WAR through age 28, which makes him roughly the 80th best prospect in KATOH’s eyes. This was a sizable step up from his 2014 forecast of 1.5 WAR. Below are his statistical comps, which were generated using Mahalanobis distance calculations. Read the rest of this entry »

In the tradition that he’s established of “screwing up every year,” this year — as part of the crowdsourcing effort to better understand the 2015-16 free-agent market — the present author neglected to include the option held by the Dodgers on Chase Utley’s 2016 season. Had he recorded 500 plate appearances, the second baseman’s $15 million option for 2016 would have vested automatically. Because Utley failed to reach the requisite plate-appearance threshold, the Dodgers now hold an option for 2015 valued at a figure between $5 million and $11 million “depending upon how many days he spent on the disabled list the previous season.”

While the precise arithmetic for determining his 2016 salary doesn’t appear to have been released publicly, multiple outlets are reporting that the option is indeed worth $11 million.

Below is a link to Utley’s contract-crowdsourcing ballot, along with some relevant information regarding his recent past and near future.

Chase Utley (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Utley:

• Has averaged 539 PA and 2.8 WAR over last three seasons.
• Has averaged 3.1 WAR per 600 PA* over last three seasons.
• Recorded a 0.0 WAR in 423 PA in 2015.
• Is projected to record 1.4 WAR per 600 PA**.
• Is entering his age-37 season.
• Made $15.0M in 2015, as part of deal signed in August 2013.

*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting player.
**Prorated version 2016 Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Utley.

“It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart.” – A. Bartlett Giamatti, The Green Fields of the Mind.

That’s it. The 2015 Major League Baseball season is over and the Kansas City Royals were the last team standing. They topped the Mets 7-2 last night, in 12 innings, and are World Series champions for the first time in 30 years.

Now we’re left – as Giamatti so elegantly put it – to face the fall alone.

October wasn’t supposed to go this way. The Royals made it to the final dance a year ago, but prognosticators saw that as an anomaly. Coming into this season, Ned Yost’s team had the look of an also-ran. Ditto Terry Collins’ upstart Mets, who were viewed as not yet ready for prime time. No longer doormats, they were nonetheless projected as wallflowers.

Baseball is unpredictable, and what the Royals did in the postseason was almost unfathomable. They scored 51 runs in the seventh inning or later, and 40 runs in the eighth inning or later. Time after time, they turned deficits into leads, losses into wins.

Last night was no exception. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s almost as though every angle and storyline has been covered already. There are 377 assigned seats in the Citi Field press box (including auxiliary seating), and plenty more media members offering perspectives from afar. The World Series doesn’t lack ink, electronic or otherwise.

But this is baseball. There’s always something more to write, because you never know what you’re going to see.

What happened on the first pitch of tonight’s game was presaged yesterday. Asked about how he might combat Alcides Escobar’s recent – and scarily good – first-pitch success, the Mets starter said he “had a few tricks up his sleeve that was going to pull out.”

On Halloween Eve, Escobar stepped into the box and was immediately treated to a 98-mph fastball that sent him sprawling. A few pitches later, the Royals lead-off hitter went down swinging.

At which point things started to go downhill for Thor. Ben Zobrist doubled over Yoenis Cespedes‘ head in center field and he eventually came around to score when the Mets couldn’t turn a 3-6-3 double play. Syndergaard getting tangled up with Lucas Duda near the bag didn’t cost the out – Wilmer Flores‘ throw was off line – but the play had snafu written all over it.

An inning later, Syndergaard gave up four hits and a pair of runs, one of them scoring on a pitch that skipped to the backstop. Were it not for an overturned safe call at third base – the baserunning boo-boo belonged to Alex Gordon — the damage could have been worse.

Yordano Ventura started off even shakier. Curtis Granderson led off the bottom of the first with a single and David Wright followed with a blast over the left-center field fence. It was the first for the Mets captain this postseason, and the 16th for the team. Home run #17 came in the third inning when The Grandy Man went yard after a Syndergaard single. With his base knock, the righty with the long, blonde locks became the eighth pitcher in Mets history to get a hit in the World Series.

In the top of the fifth, Kansas City’s Raul Mondesi became the first player in history to make his major league debut in the World Series. Pinch hitting for Ventura, he went down meekly against Syndergaard’s heat.

On Thursday, Zobrist told reporters that certain teams will “do some stuff” to get into the emotional Ventura’s head. In the bottom of the fifth, they did stuff to chase him from the game. Duda started the frame with a shift-beating grounder. Travis d’Arnaud then rang a two-bagger. Michael Conforto, mired in an 0-for-20 slump – “very good at bats and nothing to show for it,” according to Terry Collins – then plated New York’s fifth run with a something-to-show-for-it infield hit. Ventura, who failed to cover first on the right-side chopper, was bound for the showers.

Unlike his flame-throwing counterpart, Syndergaard refused to turn into a pumpkin. Instead, he turned into a middle-innings beast. Beginning with the last out of the second, he set down 12 straight, six by way of the K.

Escobar told me yesterday that he “really wants to win a Gold Glove.” In the sixth inning, Flores showed that he’s pretty good too. With the bases drunk, the slick-fielding shortstop ranged up the middle to throw out Alex Rios, just nipping him at first. The under-the-radar play essentially quash Kansas City’s chances.

A four-run bottom of the sixth sealed the deal. It was meltdown city for the visitors, epitomized by a Franklin Morales brain cramp. The lefty fielded a fist-and-third comebacker, whirled, whirled again… and held the ball. He might well have spun himself into the ground, because by inning’s end, the score stood 9-3.

It ended that way. Any hopes the Royals had of putting the Mets in a 3-0 hole were long gone. Tomorrow night is Steven Matz versus Chris Young – it’s also Halloween – and New York is very much alive.

ESPN announced today that they are suspending operations — in other words, closing down — Grantland, the site that was originally built around Bill Simmons but grew into a place with some of the best sportswriting on the planet. Their baseball coverage was phenomenal, as Jonah Keri (hired away from FanGraphs when they decided to bring in a full-time baseball writer) and Ben Lindbergh regularly put out the kind of in-depth, intelligent-but-still-approachable writing about the sport that made me jealous of their abilities.

So, as a celebration of their work, here are some of the best baseball pieces I read at Grantland over the last few years. This is just off the top of my head (and a few of FG authors who kicked in suggestions while I was writing this), so I’m certainly going to be missing a good number of great pieces, but feel free to add your own favorites in the comments below.

The Art of Pitch Framing — Lindbergh’s seminal piece on the topic.

Grand Theft Baseball — Keri’s terrific piece on stealing bases with Coco Crisp.

Rocked — An oral history of the 1989 World Series earthquake.

The Tragedy of Derek Jeter’s Defense — Lindbergh on The Captain’s glovework.

Ty Cobb as Detroit — Anna Clark on the Tigers legend.

The Website MLB Couldn’t Buy — The story of Twins.com.

Before Beane — Lindbergh on the early days of analytics in baseball.

The Year of Living Less Dangerously — Lindbergh on MLB’s changing home plate collision rule.

The Curious Case of Mark Buehrle — Rany Jazayerli on the guy who gets outs throwing 83.

Eephus Influence — Keri on the most fun pitch in baseball.

Just so much great work was published over there, because Grantland hired really talented people and gave them the ability to do creative interesting stories. I’ll miss Grantland as a one-stop place for this kind of writing, but with writers this good, I’m sure we’ll keep seeing great work from them at other places in the not too distant future.

Position: Toronto Blue Jays Baseball Operations Analytics Intern

Location: Toronto

Description:
A Baseball Operations Analytics Intern is primarily responsible for assisting with day-to-day tasks within Baseball Operations. Responsibilities vary dependent on the baseball calendar and internal sub-department needs (Amateur Scouting, Player Development, Pro Scouting and Baseball Information), with a heavy focus on analytics and research.

Why Rogers?
As a proud Canadian company, we’re dedicated to making things easier for our customers. We’re driven to make our communities and our country stronger and more successful by providing Canadian’s with advanced networks, powerhouse media brands, and technologically-advanced communications services. We’ve been embracing and leading change for over 50-years, and we’ll continue to seek out new opportunities to bring our customers simple solutions for today and tomorrow.

Why Rogers? Because we believe the best is yet to come.

Responsibilities:

• Assist the Baseball Operations department with projects as directed.
• Staying current on publically available baseball research.
• Maintain critical scouting/statistical databases and monitoring the import of data feeds.
• Assist with the preparation for the Rule 4 Draft.
• Provide support for Baseball Operations meetings and player transaction decisions.
• Support Minor League Operations/Player Development with their daily operations.
• Contribute to analysis of Major and Minor League Players.
• Assist with the testing of Baseball Operations software systems.

Qualifications:

• Strong baseball knowledge.
• Proficient in Microsoft Office (Excel, PowerPoint, Word).
• Experience using SQL and statistical software such as R.
• Familiar with current baseball research and analytics.
• Professional attitude and work ethic with strong interpersonal skills.
• Bachelor’s degree in a relevant field is a plus.
• Demonstrated analytic skills and knowledge of a scripting language are a plus.
• Baseball playing or scouting experience are a plus.
• Previous work with professional or local sports organization is a plus.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
If interested, apply here.

After two games, the runaway narrative of the 2015 World Series is the success of the Royals contact offense; they just keep swinging at and hitting everything in sight, even against pitchers who are used to blowing opponents away. From the fifth inning on last night, most of Fox’s broadcast consisted of heaping praise on the Royals “relentless” offense, and pleading with baseball to build line-ups more like this one.

The Royals line-up is fun to watch, and it is nice to see a team put the ball in play as often as the Royals do, but I’d like to point out the following set of facts. Note that we’re using R/PA instead of R/G in the runs column to account for the extra inning contests that make per plate appearance a better denominator than per game.

Royals Offense and Defense

KC Offense	BA	OBP	SLG	R/PA
Regular Season	0.269	0.322	0.412	0.12
Postseason	0.269	0.327	0.440	0.15
World Series	0.253	0.323	0.398	0.12
KC Opponents	BA	OBP	SLG	R/PA
Regular Season	0.249	0.314	0.396	0.10
Postseason	0.220	0.299	0.368	0.11
World Series	0.165	0.230	0.203	0.06

During the postseason, the Royals offense has hit a little bit better than they did during the regular season, which is a remarkable achievement given the quality of pitching they’ve faced. October is a low run-scoring environment, so for them to basically sustain their regular season levels of hitting is a notable achievement.

But look at what the Royals pitchers and defenders have done to opposing offenses, especially in this series. The Mets have a .433 OPS after the first two games in Kansas City. They’ve scored five runs in 23 innings. They have one extra one base hit. Even the rallies they have managed were based on walks and bloopers, as the Royals pitching staff has rarely had to work out of jams.

The contact-hitting-versus-dominating-pitching narrative is an easy one, especially when Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey combine for four strikeouts between them. But the Royals are up 2-0 more because of their run prevention, which has been remarkably good in the first two games. If the Royals were striking out left and right, they’d probably still be up 2-0, given how effectively KC has shut down New York’s offense.

There’s nothing wrong with giving credit to the Royals hitters; guys like Alcides Escobar really are having remarkable Octobers. But let’s not overlook the job the Royals run prevention unit is doing; they’re the ones really dominating the Mets so far.

Position: Houston Astros, Analyst, Baseball Research and Development

Location: Houston

Description:
The Houston Astros are seeking an Analyst for the team’s Baseball Research and Development group. The Analyst will work closely with the Director of R&D and the analytics team to conduct research and develop methods that encourage the effective understanding and application of information throughout Baseball Operations. If you are passionate about understanding the game of baseball, enjoy the challenge of solving a diverse array of problems and want to work in a collaborative team environment where your contribution will make a difference, this is the position for you.

Responsibilities:

• Research, develop and test mathematical, statistical and predictive models to support Baseball Operations in player evaluation, roster construction and game tactics.
• Conduct research to improve the organization’s understanding of the game of baseball.
• Prepare and explore a variety of baseball data sets and construct workflows to utilize this data.
• Communicate closely with front office, coaching and scouting personnel in the gathering and application of baseball information.
• Build information systems to support Baseball Operations efforts to improve player health and performance.
• Evaluate and lead implementation of advanced technologies.

Qualifications:

• Bachelor’s degree or higher in statistics, engineering, applied math, physics, quantitative social sciences, computer science, operations research or similar field.
• Strong analytical and problem-solving skills.
• Strong interpersonal and communication skills (written and verbal).
• Proficiency with SQL and relational databases.
• Ability to communicate technical ideas to non-technical audiences using data visualization.
• Experience with baseball data and understanding of sabermetric concepts.
• Experience with statistical software, programming languages and machine learning techniques is strongly preferred.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
If interested, apply here.

Well, this is a bit surprising.

Sources: Alex Anthopoulos leaving #BlueJays after turning down extension: https://t.co/XgO8q7D1J3

— Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) October 29, 2015

Sources: #BlueJays offered Anthopoulos long-term contract. His departure is not over terms or money.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) October 29, 2015

Alex Anthopoulos wanted full GM responsibilities. He told me recently he wouldn't stay under conditions less than that.

— steve simmons (@simmonssteve) October 29, 2015

Source: In their 1st & only meeting, new Jays prez Mark Shapiro scolded Alex Anthopolous & staff for trading so many top prospects this yr

— Rick Westhead (@rwesthead) October 29, 2015

The Blue Jays have been publicly looking for a baseball guy to replace Paul Beeston as team president for over a year, beginning with their awkward courtship of Kenny Williams and Dan Duquette last winter. They finally found their replacement in August, when they brought Mark Shapiro over from Cleveland to take the job, though the announcement at the time suggested that Shapiro would focus mostly on the business side of the organization, leaving the baseball operations department in Anthopoulos’ hands. After the team won the AL East on the backs of his many acquisitions over the last year, the general assumption was that he’d done enough to earn autonomy as the guy putting together the team’s roster.

But perhaps we should have seen this coming, given that the organization was clearly looking for a former GM to take their presidents role, rather than focusing solely on someone with a business background. They made a point of hiring a baseball guy to be Anthopoulos’ new boss, and it’s probably difficult to assume that you’re going to be allowed to make decisions if your boss was hired in large part because he’d done your job before.

So now a great 2015 Blue Jays season ends with a stain, as the team will have to undergo changes in the baseball operations department as well. Shapiro’s lengthy tenure in Cleveland helped produce many front office members around the game and the team’s position should help attract quality candidates; I’d suggest this might be the kind of job that could get Ben Cherington to reconsider taking a year off from working in baseball, for instance.

But this is an awkward cap to put on a great year in Toronto. Anthopoulos absolutely did trade away huge chunks of the team’s farm system, but in acquiring guys like Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki, Devon Travis, and Russell Martin, he made moves that set the team up to win not just in 2015, but beyond as well. And focusing solely on the cost of the acquisitions without balancing that against the obvious rewards of reinvigorating a city that hadn’t seen playoff baseball in 20 years seems short-sighted at best.

The Blue Jays will probably be fine without Anthopoulos, but the Jays are going to have to do some pretty nifty PR to not squander the significant excitement for the franchise they just spent so much time generating. And while there aren’t any other GM jobs open at the moment, it seems pretty likely that Anthopoulos will find a job in the not too distant future, and probably one where he’s allowed to call his own shots, rather than reporting to a GM-turned-president who doesn’t share his same philosophies.