Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 1/29/21

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon and welcome to my first chat in this new time slot as well as my first one of 2021!

Jay Jaffe: While I wait for the queue to gain steam, some housekeeping… First, a fond farewell to colleague Craig Edwards, who’s making a leap to becoming an analyst for the Major League Baseball Players Association https://blogs.fangraphs.com/goodbye-and-thank-you/

Jay Jaffe: Second, I awoke to the pleasant surprise of having my Missed Time and the Hall of Fame series nominated for a SABR Analytics Research Conference Award. Colleagues Craig, Ben Clemens and Meg Rowley were also nominated in other categories, as were many friends and familiar names. Congrats to all of these fine nominees! Do read these pieces when you get a chance, and vote on them starting next week. https://sabr.org/latest/announcing-finalists-for-2021-sabr-analytics-c…

Jay Jaffe: Here’s a link to mine: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/missed-time-and-the-hall-of-fame-part-1, https://blogs.fangraphs.com/missed-time-and-the-hall-of-fame-part-2, https://blogs.fangraphs.com/missed-time-and-the-hall-of-fame-part-3

Jay Jaffe: Here’s my candidate-by-candidate roundup of this week’s Hall of Fame voting. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-candidate-by-candidate-look-at-the-2… My 5-year outlook piece will run on Monday, and wow has it change even with nobody elected this year.

Jay Jaffe: Get your FanGraphs mug while you still can:  https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-new-fangraphs-mug-is-now-available…

Jay Jaffe: OK, on to the questions….

Inaccessible Rail: When I look at spotrac for Mets payroll info, I see a total of about 160 million, which makes me think that they could sign Bauer without hitting the salary “cap.” But I also see a bunch of guys on the roster listed at $0. Am I misunderstanding the site?

Jay Jaffe: Allow me to humbly suggest that you check the Payroll tab of our Roster Resource Mets page https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/mets, which estimates their payroll for CBT purposes at $181.55 million, making a Bauer signing likely to push them over the threshold.

fake baseball fan: With all the talk of next year’s ballot featuring Ortiz and A-Rod, how do you think Joe Nathan, who was slightly lesser than Billy Wagner in most ways, will fare?

Jay Jaffe: JAWS-wise, Nathan has a slight advantage over Wagner, but my hybrid WAR-WPA-WPA/LI metric — which I use instead of JAWS for relievers and will probably codify as such at some point — he’s a bit below. Nathan doesn’t have the eye-opening dominance stats, the saves, or or as compelling a back story as Wagner, either. I think he’ll get some support but don’t see an immediate path to election.

PhilDiggety: Have you been reading Joe Posnanski’s series on the best players not in the Hall of Fame?

Jay Jaffe: Not comprehensively, but yes, and I agree with his choice of Minnie Miñoso as number one.

Doug: Is the Blue Jays starting lineup stacked enough to alleviate the woeful lack of starting pitching…

Jay Jaffe: That lineup is stacked, Hyun Jin Ryu is still excellent, and I do think Robbie Ray, Steven Matz, and Ross Stripling are all much better than they showed last year. Their rotation is 10th in our Depth Charts rankings, and while there will be some signings to come, i think at worst they’l wind up in the middle there.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Do the Dodgers have a platoon problem? Only reliable RH bats are Mookie, Smith, Taylor, and Pollock.

Jay Jaffe: I think it maters less when you have lefties who can hit lefties, though Seager and Bellinger have had their ups and downs in that area. I also think that if they don’t sign Justin Turner they’ll add another righty bat somewhere

Hall Watch 2021/22: It’s been mentioned a few times by some writers/pundits that a good portion of the “no” votes on Bonds/Clemens are waiting to shift to “yes” next year as a means of the full ten year ballot wait being their “punishment” for ‘roids. Do you put any credence in this theory? It does feel as though certain writers who put stock in the “sacred honor of voting” are firmly locked into their viewpoint regarding PEDs.

Jay Jaffe: I think there might be some small faction that ‘s been waiting until year 10 either as a small way of punishing the pair or because they’re holding out to see if additional evidence/perspective emerge. I do think that the more likely factor in flipping votes will be the arrival of David Ortiz on the ballot. he reportedly failed the 2003 survey test, and while Rob Manfred publicly disavowed the results of that during the retirement tour love-fest, I think it makes for some serious cognitive dissonance to anoint him while holding the even earlier allegations against Clemens and Bonds against them.

Jay Jaffe: More to come on the topic in Monday’s 5-year outlook piece. This year’s returns tell me they’re probably not going to get to 75% with the writers, though

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: Did you laugh a lot or a little when you read Schilling’s “woe is me” post?

Jay Jaffe: i took one look at the formatting and skimmed a couple grafs, then moved on with my life. The only things that mattered were the points digested by the writers: he wants off the ballot and is mad at only 71.1% of the writers for voting for him. For a guy who says he’s over it, he’s definitely not over it.

Matt V: Have you considered developing a defense specific version of JAWS? A lot of players with long careers end up with a negative total defensive WAR even when they were outstanding fielders in their primes. I get that the math might be a little messy, but this kind of focus could be illuminating.

Jay Jaffe: defensive WAR is really only useful if you’re trying to gauge the relative impact of position on a player’s total value, because positional adjustments are included. I don’t think there’s anything to be done with it as far as JAWS is concerned. If you’re using JAWS you’re comparing position to position, and fielding runs (Total Zone + DRS) is the way to go, even while allowing that not everybody spends 100% of their careers at the position in question.

Ben: How surprised would you have been, at the beginning of the offseason, to know that as of the end of January that James McCann would have the 5th largest guarantee of all free agents?

Jay Jaffe: a little but I would figure that it was more a commentary on the lack of FA movement to that point, which was at least somewhat expected.

Farhandrew Zaidman: 2021 free agents for the Dodgers include Kershaw, Seager, Kenley, and Taylor. Add in the loss of Kiké, Joc, and possibly Turner: are the Dodgers approaching a (soft) rebuild of its core? That seems ridiculous to even type out.

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t call it a rebuild but it’s inevitable that players turn over. The Dodgers’ system has been thriving in recent years, and their payroll is also very flexible. I suspect they’ll work to keep Kershaw (probably another short term deal) and Seager, and Buehler and Bellinger — and they can afford to.

Tacoby Bellsbury: Please rank the following in order of most to least likely to get elected next year, and explain why: Schilling, Bonds/Clemens, Rolen, Helton, Ortiz

Jay Jaffe: None of them will be elected next year, see next Monday’s piece.

They: Luckily, the Mets front office and ownership has managed to stay out of the headlines this offseason so that we can focus on baseball. What are your thoughts on Bauer? Beyond the baggage that comes with him (I feel like he’s the wrong guy at the wrong time for the Mets), how good do you think he actually is? Not a lot of great seasons on his resume, and I would worry he’s nowhere near his 2020 self pitching outside of the NL Central.

Jay Jaffe: I’ll assume the sarcasm font is on for those first two lines given the Jared Porter sh*tshow. Leaving aside the toxicity of Bauer for the moment to focus on performance only, I see a high-upside pitcher whose track record contains two elite seasons (one of them very short), three good ones, and two serviceable ones near the beginning of his career that were part of his growth. Steamer and ZiPS projections both put him in the top 10 for next year, which doesn’t seem unreasonable.

I would not sign him based upon the possibility that he becomes a PR disaster, but some team will.

Colin: Seems like the shortstop musical chairs are coming to an end soon, where do you think Gregorious ends up? And who are the fallback options for the teams that don’t get him?

Jay Jaffe: I see Didi going back to the Reds.

Jay Jaffe: As to what to do if they don’t get him, all of the top free agent options for this year are off the market, as is Freddy Galvis, but next year offers a bumper crop: Seager, Lindor, Correa, Story and Baez, only some of whom will be secured before then via long-term extensions. Hanser Alberto and Jonathan Villar stand out as available players who could serve as stopgaps; a team wanting more than that is going to have to pull off a trade. Maybe Willy Adames once Wander Franco is ready.

vegasTaylor: Hey Jay, are all stats on Fangraphs updated daily?  I am thinking about getting a yearly membership to use Fangraphs to handicap baseball everyday.  Thank you!

Jay Jaffe: Yes they’re updated daily, usually by the time most of us are going out to milk the cows. We’d love it if you would buy a membership https://plus.fangraphs.com/product/fangraphs-membership/

The Upside: The NYY SP strategy is… volatile. But on the other hand, after The Guy, they have, like, 5 guys who could possibly be very good for 30 October IP. They have enough innings among all the arms, are you in favor of this attempt to harness lightning? (Leaving aside both the CBT silliness and signing an upstanding fellow like Bauer.)

Jay Jaffe: I think they need a higher-floor guy in the mix to eat innings, so I was surprised they let Tanaka go back to Japan. I guess they feel that German, Montgomery, and maybe Schmidt can offset the high-upside/high-risk group of Kluber/Taillon/Severino. And I don’t mean to give Deivi Garcia short shrift here, but I see him as a rung above that first trio.

Minoso For The Hall: Joe Posnanski recently finished a list of 100 Players he’d put in the hall of fame for The Athletic, capping off with Minoso and Buck O’Neil. Were you able to follow along/have thoughts on his list & reasonings? And more to the point, who would be your Top Five/Ten that you would put in the hall were you given the power?

Jay Jaffe: Mentioned this above but to expand: Minnie, Buck, Dick Allen, Bobby Grich, Lou Whitaker, Dwight Evans, Thurman Munson, Kenny Lofton, pioneer Doc Adams… I’m coming around on Tiant. Curt Flood as a special case.

Sodo Mojo: Felix Hernandez is still on the outside looking in for Hall of Fame consideration but looked sharp in Spring Training last year before shutting it down for 2020.  What would he need to do to move into clear HOF consideration in the next 3 years?

Jay Jaffe: Roughly speaking, get his JAWS to 50 (CC Sabathia is at 50.9 and I’m almost certain I’ll vote for him even though that’s short), which means getting another 11-12 bWAR. That’s a very tall order given his recent track record.

D: What do you think about a 5-year peak for HOF consideration or 10 years, or whatever, as compared to 7?

Jay Jaffe: 7 is between 5 and 10 which is why I like it more than either of those other numbers. I began JAWS by using 5 consecutive. 5 alone doesn’t do enough to tell us much while 10 converges too much with career value.

YardGoat: Bold take that probably isn’t that bold — I don’t think anyone gets elected to the HOF next year. When was the last time there were back to back years with noone elected?

Jay Jaffe: 1958 and ’60 (the voting was biennial then)

Curtis: Thoughts on Schilling’s request? And the HOF initial response?

Jay Jaffe: See the above candidate-by-candidate link, and my initial rundown of the results https://blogs.fangraphs.com/hall-of-fame-voters-pitch-another-shutout/

45 blows billygoats: Next year will also see Timmy Lincecum on the ballot…HOFer?

Jay Jaffe: not even close, alas. Just 1682 innings, 110 innings, and 19.6 bWAR. He’s not even close to Johan Santana and Bret Saberhagen among 2x CY winners who deserved longer looks

Dodger fan: 1 year/7 million for joc seems like a steal. I’m surprised the dodgers didn’t beat that. Who takes over LF vs righties? Pollock hasn’t had great platoon splits

Jay Jaffe: 1/$7m is a steal for Joc but I think the Dodgers figured he’d do better than that, and again, I presume they’ve got at least one major move coming up, with Marcell Ozuna connected to them (which complicates Pollock’s situation unless the DH returns) as well as Turner.

fake baseball fan: Have you flipped your view for the future on Helton, Wagner, Rolen, and Jones? Have you made Rolen’s likely eventual election earlier in projections? Do you now think Wagner or Jones will make it in in the 10 year window?

Jay Jaffe: the candidate-by-candidate piece and Monday’s upcoming one take swings at these questions

vr: Why does the AAA Pacific Coast League seem to boost offense even beyond wrc+, eg, lots of players graduate with 150+ wrc+ and only end up being average-ish hitters (pederson, ty france, jared walsh). It seems that when hitters in the east do that it’s not only rarer but they become studs (eg acuna)

Jay Jaffe: Lots of high altitude spots, esp. Salt Lake City, Albuquerque, El Paso, even Las Vegas is 2000 feet above sea level.

Alex: With Walker just elected and Helton on the ballot, we’re hearing a lot about Coors field. A lot of elected Red Sox and Cubs also have dramatic home/road splits, but is there another home park (past or present) that inflates offense to a degree people don’t consider enough?

Jay Jaffe: The Phillies’ Baker Bowl produced insane splits for Chuck Klein and before that Cy Wiliams, both of whom are among the top 5 in terms of home-road OPS differential. The Metrodome was very hitter-friendly for all but the last few years of its existence.

Jay Jaffe: See here for the OPS differential table https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2021-hall-of-fame-ballot-todd…

Pat: I am always surprised that Gary Sheffield doesn’t get more HOF support. Any idea why that is? Is it advanced stats guys not voting for him due to his low WAR (mostly due to shaky defensive stats, as you’ve noted)? Old school guys that didn’t like his attitude? Nebulous PED ties? ( which will take some mental gymnastics to include Papi, but, not Sheffield come 2022). I always wonder if race plays a part, too. For 20 years he was an absolute offensive force. Don’t see how Jim Rice gets in, but, Sheff doesn’t.

Jay Jaffe: His support has tripled in two years time, and I think it’s more likely he goes in than not, but the question is by which mechanism. Again, not to clog the queue with this as I’ve got ample reading material on this in recent and future writeups

Angry Cubs Fan: Apparently the Cubs owner is talking about increases the payroll for the team to compete. Why would the Cubs sell Darvish for pennies and cut Schwarber if that was the case? Are upset Cubs fans right tup be angry at the front office?

Jay Jaffe: Yes, they have every right to be angry. The team they had was perfectly capable of contending in 2021 given a normal offseason of addressing needs (i.e., retaining or replacing Quintana and Lester)

tim: do the phillies make a move for ss or 2b in your opinion? maybe kolten wong?

Jay Jaffe: I like Segura more at 2B than SS but unless they bring back Didi the market is bone dry. If Segura’s the SS, they’ve got Scott Kingery for 2B under contract through at least 2023 and he’s only a short season removed from an excellent age-25 season. If Wong is affordable they could move Kingery back into a superutility role but I think they should be spending on pitching.

Ben: Do you think Papelbon and K-Rod will get any HoF support? Or will they be viewed in a clear tier below Wagner and Nathan?

Jay Jaffe: They’re a tier below and with significant black marks against them — K-Rod with two domestic altercation incidents and Papelbon with his Harper-choking incident, and also just 700ish innings. They’re not going anywhere votewise

Inaccessible Rail: Just finished your “Missed Time” series and it was great, thanks. I normally read just about every non-fantasy FG article, but I think I missed that series due to my early-Covid-19 funk.

Jay Jaffe: it was easy to miss given its timing, but thank you for the kind words!

Jeff: Whoa, big loss in Edwards

Jay Jaffe: I’m very excited for Craig and for the MLBPA, and… stay tuned.

Jesse: Hi Jay, thanks for the chat! You always seem to be enjoying delicious food.  Are there any cookbooks that set your heart on fire and that you would recommend?

Jay Jaffe: You know, it’s been awhile since I was seriously into cookbooks but I did enjoy the Donna Hay ones (The Instant Cook, The New Cook, and Flavours), and Hugh Acheson’s The Broad Fork. For most of the past 15 years I have tended to hunt down recipes on the internet and clip and save them. Lately I use an app called Paprika which has a desktop and phone component and it’s great for archiving, sharing, and creating grocery lists.

fake baseball fan: Are Verlander, Scherzer, and Greinke (Kershaw loosely here) sure things for the Hall yet?

Jay Jaffe: Verlander and Kershaw are sure things by now. and I think the other two are pretty close. Scherzer getting to 3,000 strikeouts  (he’s 216 away) or 200 wins (he’s 25 away) probably is enough to seal the deal and I think he’ll do both. Greinke’s 311 strikeouts away from 3K and he’s young enough to get there.

Isolated Thinker: What’s your take on McCann and Martin?  Both have strikingly similar careers, McCann arguably the slightly better offensive player, but both were consistently elite defenders.  Does the induction of Ted Simmons work in their favor, considering the close career WAR totals between the 3?

Jay Jaffe: I think that if we’re going to talk about Yadier Molina’s framing stats being part of the foundation of his Hall of Fame case, then we have to talk about McCann and Martin in that context as well. That said, neither won a championship or got the same level of fluffy puff pieces from the media as Molina did so I think they’ll have rougher sledding. Wrote about all three in April 2019 https://blogs.fangraphs.com/framing-the-hall-of-fame-cases-for-martin-…

curt Flood Yes: While Flood’s numbers and longevity may not warrant it, his incredible sacrifice for the players is very under-appreciated and overwhelmed by the adulation of Marvin Miller.  Flood’s courage in combating both racism and the reserve clause should be honored.

Jay Jaffe: Yes. While he was a very good player, his playing merits alone aren’t enough to elect him, but I’ve come around to the idea that the bigger-picture stuff elevates him enough to make an exception

fake baseball fan: Who, in your opinion, is the worst pitcher in the Hall?

Jay Jaffe: Jesse Haines is 306th in JAWS, compared to Morris and Catfish at 169/170 and Rube Marquard at 248

Lark: I’ve never been to the physical hall of fame, and I’m considering a trip with my dad once that’s less of a terrible idea. Do you have any recommendations for the museum/town/trip/how long we should expect to be there?

Jay Jaffe: I suggest giving yourself two days centered around exploring the museum and at least one day for other area attractions, and more if you can afford it. I spent a delightful four nights in the dead of early February there when most of the town was closed and I’d kill to have that much time in the summer apart from an induction weekend.

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: Johan is a HOFer.  Fact or fiction?

Jay Jaffe: I mean, it’s fiction right now, in that he’s not a Hall of Famer. But I think that he deserved a longer look on the ballot, and would be more inclined to elect him based on his high peak than, say, Cole Hamels, who is 0.1 ahead of him in JAWS but never won a CY and has a much lower peak.

Inaccessible Rail: Who is the one player you would vote for for the Hall even though the numbers REALLY don’t back it up?

Jay Jaffe: Fernando Valenzuela.

Guest: I feel the entire industry is overreacting to 2020 sample sizes. Do you think a fantasy owner that used ONLY 2019 stats to pick their team would be better than a team that used ONLY 2020 stats?

Jay Jaffe: That’s a very good question, but perhaps better asked to Dan Szymborski than myself

Guest: Can you imagine if Henry Aaron had accepted the NY Giants’ offer and he and Willie Mays had ended up in the same outfield?

Jay Jaffe: It’s mindblowing, really.

Bighen: Better fit for Mets -Jackie Bradley and Oddorozzi or Bauer?

Jay Jaffe: Bradley/Odorizzi.

Bob: What’s Jon Lester’s place in history when it’s all said and done – seeing as it seems his career is on the clear path downward? I know he’s a bit a ways away, but he was just such an outstanding postseason performer. (this is probably a dumb question, but I’m sentimental today)

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think he’s quite in the HOF conversation because of his mid-30s fall-off, but his postseason work will help to keep him on the ballot past his first year.

larryv: I advise against cookbooks that set one’s heart on fire, as hearts are known to respond poorly to flames

Jay Jaffe: so very true.

Dee Arby: while you are the foremost expert on the HOF, how does it make you feel that the HOF no longer really matters to many baseball fans?

Jay Jaffe: Having spent most of my life caring about things that only a minority of the population cares about, I can’t lose sleep over this. I’m happy that enough people care about it that it’s helped me find a niche in this industry. Hall arguments are a renewable resource, and I’m lucky enough to have stumbled into that annual cycle of renewal.  

I think the Hall has always not-mattered to a sizable portion of fans, and unless you have actual data to tell me that segment has grown significantly, I’m not terribly worried; the segment boldly making such declarations is invariably reacting to a headline or recent event to presume that their own feelings are proxy for a broad section of the population.

Jay Jaffe: OK folks, this has been a blast but it’s time for me to go. Hopefully, we’ll be able to maintain this timeslot for awhile and make A Thing of it. Thanks for stopping by!